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on Market Microstructure |
| By: | Xue Dong He; Chen Yang; Yutian Zhou |
| Abstract: | Automated market makers are a popular type of decentralized exchange in which users trade assets with each other directly and automatically through a liquidity pool and a fixed pricing function. The liquidity provider contributes to the liquidity pool by supplying assets to the pool and in return they earn transaction fees from traders who trade through the pool. We propose a model of optimal liquidity provision in which the risk-averse liquidity provider decides the investment proportion of wealth she would like to supply to the pool, trade in a centralized market, and consume in multiple periods. We derive the liquidity provider's optimal strategy by dynamic programming and numerically find the optimal liquidity pool that maximizes the liquidity provider's utility. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility on the centralized market exerts a positive effect on the optimal transaction fee. Moreover, the optimal constant mean pricing formula is found to be related to the relative performance of the underlying assets on the centralized market. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.13291&r=mst |
| By: | James T. Wilkinson; Jacob Kelter; John Chen; Uri Wilensky |
| Abstract: | We present a novel agent-based approach to simulating an over-the-counter (OTC) financial market in which trades are intermediated solely by market makers and agent visibility is constrained to a network topology. Dynamics, such as changes in price, result from agent-level interactions that ubiquitously occur via market maker agents acting as liquidity providers. Two additional agents are considered: trend investors use a deep convolutional neural network paired with a deep Q-learning framework to inform trading decisions by analysing price history; and value investors use a static price-target to determine their trade directions and sizes. We demonstrate that our novel inclusion of a network topology with market makers facilitates explorations into various market structures. First, we present the model and an overview of its mechanics. Second, we validate our findings via comparison to the real-world: we demonstrate a fat-tailed distribution of price changes, auto-correlated volatility, a skew negatively correlated to market maker positioning, predictable price-history patterns and more. Finally, we demonstrate that our network-based model can lend insights into the effect of market-structure on price-action. For example, we show that markets with sparsely connected intermediaries can have a critical point of fragmentation, beyond which the market forms distinct clusters and arbitrage becomes rapidly possible between the prices of different market makers. A discussion is provided on future work that would be beneficial. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.02480&r=mst |
| By: | Xintong Wu; Wanling Deng; Yuotng Quan; Luyao Zhang |
| Abstract: | In the evolving landscape of digital finance, the transition from centralized to decentralized trust mechanisms, primarily driven by blockchain technology, plays a critical role in shaping the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This paradigm shift raises questions about the traditional reliance on centralized trust and introduces a novel, decentralized trust framework built upon distributed networks. Our research delves into the consequences of this shift, particularly focusing on how incidents influence trust within cryptocurrency markets, thereby affecting trade behaviors in centralized (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs). We conduct a comprehensive analysis of various events, assessing their effects on market dynamics, including token valuation and trading volumes in both CEXs and DEXs. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of trust in directing user preferences and the fluidity of trust transfer between centralized and decentralized platforms. Despite certain anomalies, the results largely align with our initial hypotheses, revealing the intricate nature of user trust in cryptocurrency markets. This study contributes significantly to interdisciplinary research, bridging distributed systems, behavioral finance, and Decentralized Finance (DeFi). It offers valuable insights for the distributed computing community, particularly in understanding and applying distributed trust mechanisms in digital economies, paving the way for future research that could further explore the socio-economic dimensions and leverage blockchain data in this dynamic domain. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.17227&r=mst |
| By: | Peng Yifeng |
| Abstract: | Market fluctuations caused by overtrading are important components of systemic market risk. This study examines the effect of investor sentiment on intraday overtrading activities in the Chinese A-share market. Employing high-frequency sentiment indices inferred from social media posts on the Eastmoney forum Guba, the research focuses on constituents of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices over a period from 01/01/2018, to 12/30/2022. The empirical analysis indicates that investor sentiment exerts a significantly positive impact on intraday overtrading, with the influence being more pronounced among institutional investors relative to individual traders. Moreover, sentiment-driven overtrading is found to be more prevalent during bull markets as opposed to bear markets. Additionally, the effect of sentiment on overtrading is observed to be more pronounced among individual investors in large-cap stocks compared to small- and mid-cap stocks. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.12001&r=mst |
| By: | Cecilia Aubrun; Rudy Morel; Michael Benzaquen; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significant attention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, and social physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherent to the system (endogenous), or from external shocks (exogenous). The possibility of separating these two classes of events has critical implications for professionals in those fields. We introduce an unsupervised framework leveraging a representation of jump time-series based on wavelet coefficients and apply it to stock price jumps. In line with previous work, we recover the fact that the time-asymmetry of volatility is a major feature. Mean-reversion and trend are found to be two additional key features, allowing us to identify new classes of jumps. Furthermore, thanks to our wavelet-based representation, we investigate the reflexive properties of co-jumps, which occur when multiple stocks experience price jumps within the same minute. We argue that a significant fraction of co-jumps results from an endogenous contagion mechanism. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.16467&r=mst |