nep-mst New Economics Papers
on Market Microstructure
Issue of 2021‒10‒04
three papers chosen by
Thanos Verousis

  1. Deep Hawkes Process for High-Frequency Market Making By Pankaj Kumar
  2. Intra-Day Price Simulation with Generative Adversarial Modelling of the Order Flow By Ye-Sheen Lim; Denise Gorse
  3. Periodicity in Cryptocurrency Volatility and Liquidity By Peter Reinhard Hansen; Chan Kim; Wade Kimbrough

  1. By: Pankaj Kumar
    Abstract: High-frequency market making is a liquidity-providing trading strategy that simultaneously generates many bids and asks for a security at ultra-low latency while maintaining a relatively neutral position. The strategy makes a profit from the bid-ask spread for every buy and sell transaction, against the risk of adverse selection, uncertain execution and inventory risk. We design realistic simulations of limit order markets and develop a high-frequency market making strategy in which agents process order book information to post the optimal price, order type and execution time. By introducing the Deep Hawkes process to the high-frequency market making strategy, we allow a feedback loop to be created between order arrival and the state of the limit order book, together with self- and cross-excitation effects. Our high-frequency market making strategy accounts for the cancellation of orders that influence order queue position, profitability, bid-ask spread and the value of the order. The experimental results show that our trading agent outperforms the baseline strategy, which uses a probability density estimate of the fundamental price. We investigate the effect of cancellations on market quality and the agent's profitability. We validate how closely the simulation framework approximates reality by reproducing stylised facts from the empirical analysis of the simulated order book data.
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Ye-Sheen Lim; Denise Gorse
    Abstract: Intra-day price variations in financial markets are driven by the sequence of orders, called the order flow, that is submitted at high frequency by traders. This paper introduces a novel application of the Sequence Generative Adversarial Networks framework to model the order flow, such that random sequences of the order flow can then be generated to simulate the intra-day variation of prices. As a benchmark, a well-known parametric model from the quantitative finance literature is selected. The models are fitted, and then multiple random paths of the order flow sequences are sampled from each model. Model performances are then evaluated by using the generated sequences to simulate price variations, and we compare the empirical regularities between the price variations produced by the generated and real sequences. The empirical regularities considered include the distribution of the price log-returns, the price volatility, and the heavy-tail of the log-returns distributions. The results show that the order sequences from the generative model are better able to reproduce the statistical behaviour of real price variations than the sequences from the benchmark.
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Peter Reinhard Hansen; Chan Kim; Wade Kimbrough
    Abstract: We study recurrent patterns in volatility and volume for major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, using data from two centralized exchanges (Coinbase Pro and Binance) and a decentralized exchange (Uniswap V2). We find systematic patterns in both volatility and volume across day-of-the-week, hour-of-the-day, and within the hour. These patterns have grown stronger over the years and can be related to algorithmic trading and funding times in futures markets. We also document that price formation mainly takes place on the centralized exchanges while price adjustments on the decentralized exchanges can be sluggish.
    Date: 2021–09

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