By: |
Suleyman Serdengecti;
Ahmet Sensoy |
Abstract: |
Using a dataset on local banks' daily FX transaction volume segregated into
counterparty and transaction types, this article investigates the relationship
between trading volume and intraday realized volatility for the US
dollar/Turkish lira parity (USDTRY), one of the most traded emerging market
currencies against US dollar. We question whether type of counterparty and
transaction affects intraday volume-volatility relationship across various
trading sessions around the world. We reveal that only the spot transactions
of domestic customers have positive contemporaneous relation with realized
volatility and this significance is valid only in global trading sessions that
mostly overlap with the local trading hours. Furthermore, we utilize a metric
for the belief dispersion on the level of future exchange rate via currency
options and find that the dispersion significantly strengthens the
volume-volatility nexus, confirming the Dispersion of Beliefs Hypothesis. |
Keywords: |
FX microstructure, Volume-volatility nexus, Mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH), Sequential information arrival hypothesis (SIAH), Dispersion of beliefs hypothesis (DBH) |
JEL: |
G12 G15 D49 |
Date: |
2019 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1928&r=all |