nep-mst New Economics Papers
on Market Microstructure
Issue of 2019‒01‒14
four papers chosen by
Thanos Verousis

  1. How spread changes affect the order book: Comparing the price responses of order deletions and placements to trades By Stephan Grimm; Thomas Guhr
  2. Limits to arbitrage in markets with stochastic settlement latency By Hautsch, Nikolaus; Scheuch, Christoph; Voigt, Stefan
  3. The Price of BitCoin: GARCH Evidence from High Frequency Data By Pavel Ciaian; d'Artis Kancs; Miroslava Rajcaniova
  4. The market nanostructure origin of asset price time reversal asymmetry By Marcus Cordi; Damien Challet; Serge Kassibrakis

  1. By: Stephan Grimm; Thomas Guhr
    Abstract: We observe the effects of the three different events that cause spread changes in the order book, namely trades, deletions and placement of limit orders. By looking at the frequencies of the relative amounts of price changing events, we discover that deletions of orders open the bid-ask spread of a stock more often than trades do. We see that once the amount of spread changes due to deletions exceeds the amount of the ones due to trades, other observables in the order book change as well. We then look at how these spread changing events affect the prices of stocks, by means of the price response. We not only see that the self-response of stocks is positive for both spread changing trades and deletions and negative for order placements, but also cross-response to other stocks and therefore the market as a whole. In addition, the self-response function of spread-changing trades is similar to that of all trades. This leads to the conclusion that spread changing deletions and order placements have a similar effect on the order book and stock prices over time as trades.
    Date: 2018–12
  2. By: Hautsch, Nikolaus; Scheuch, Christoph; Voigt, Stefan
    Abstract: Distributed ledger technologies rely on consensus protocols confronting traders with random waiting times until the transfer of ownership is accomplished. This time consuming settlement process exposes arbitrageurs to price risk and imposes limits to arbitrage. We derive theoretical arbitrage boundaries under general assumptions and show that they increase with expected latency, latency uncertainty, spot volatility, and risk aversion. Using high-frequency data from the Bitcoin network, we estimate arbitrage boundaries due to settlement latency of on average 124 basis points, covering 88% of the observed cross-exchange price differences. Settlement through decentralized systems thus induces non-trivial frictions affecting market efficiency and price formation.
    Keywords: Arbitrage,Settlement Latency,Distributed Ledger,Blockchain
    JEL: G00 G10 G14
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Pavel Ciaian; d'Artis Kancs; Miroslava Rajcaniova
    Abstract: This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand equations in a GARCH framework using hourly data for the period 2013-2018. In line with the theoretical model, our empirical results confirm that both the BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand have a statistically significant impact on the BitCoin price formation. The BitCoin price responds negatively to the BitCoin velocity, whereas positive shocks to the BitCoin stock, interest rate and the size of the BitCoin economy exercise an upward pressure on the BitCoin price.
    Date: 2018–12
  4. By: Marcus Cordi; Damien Challet; Serge Kassibrakis
    Abstract: We introduce a framework to infer lead-lag networks between the states of elements of complex systems, determined at different timescales. As such networks encode the causal structure of a system, infering lead-lag networks for many pairs of timescales provides a global picture of the mutual influence between timescales. We apply our method to two trader-resolved FX data sets and document strong and complex asymmetric influence of timescales on the structure of lead-lag networks. Expectedly, this asymmetry extends to trader activity: for institutional clients in our dataset, past activity on timescales longer than 3 hours is more correlated with future activity at shorter timescales than the opposite (Zumbach effect), while a reverse Zumbach effect is found for past timescales shorter than 3 hours; retail clients have a totally different, and much more intricate, structure of asymmetric timescale influence. The causality structures are clearly caused by markedly different behaviors of the two types of traders. Hence, market nanostructure, i.e., market dynamics at the individual trader level, provides an unprecedented insight into the causality structure of financial markets, which is much more complex than previously thought.
    Date: 2019–01

This nep-mst issue is ©2019 by Thanos Verousis. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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