nep-mst New Economics Papers
on Market Microstructure
Issue of 2016‒07‒16
four papers chosen by
Thanos Verousis

  1. Forecast in Capital Markets By Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O.
  2. Volume, Volatility and Public News Announcements By ; Jia Li; Yuan Xue
  3. Stock Market Insider Trading in Continuous Time with Imperfect Dynamic Information By Albina Danilova
  4. Liquidity and Prices in Decentralized Markets with Almost Public Information By Anton Tsoy

  1. By: Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O.
    Abstract: In the Schumpeterian technical and social innovations disruption age, we firmly believe that a big number of unlimited opportunities toward a new era of the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets is being created due to an increasing application of the computations processing in the range of ultra high frequencies in the modern finances. In this book, we would like to focus on the capital markets in the finances, discussing a number of scientific methods for an accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates oscillations dynamics during the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the short and long time periods. More specifically, we would like to precisely characterize the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequencies electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the short and long time periods, using the mathematical, financial, electronic and quantum analysis methods. In addition, we would like to propose the quantum winning virtuous strategies creation algorithm with the inductive, deductive, abductive and quantum logics to earn an increasing return premium during the ultra high frequencies electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the short and long time periods.
    Keywords: absorption of information, diffusion of information, transmission of information, information theory, ultra high frequency electronic trading, processing frequency, algorithmic trading, informed trading, noise trading, currencies exchange rate, vehicle currency, interest rate, retail aggregator, liquidity aggregator, interdealer trade orders flow direction, stop-loss order, bid - ask spreads, price discovery process, capital inflow, capital outflow, carry trade strategy, financial liquidity, foreign currencies exchange market micro structure, foreign currencies exchange rate dynamics, Wiener filtering theory, Stratanovich-Kalman-Bucy filtering algorithm, Stratanovich – Kalman – Bucy filter, particle filter, nonlinearities, Ledenyov law on limiting frequency for ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets, econophysics, econometrics, global foreign exchange market, global capital market
    JEL: G1 G11 G15 G17 G19
    Date: 2016–06–29
  2. By: (Duke University, NBER and CREATES); Jia Li (Duke University); Yuan Xue (Duke University)
    Abstract: We provide new empirical evidence for the way in which financial markets process information. Our results are based on high-frequency intraday data along with new econometric techniques for making inference on the relationship between trading intensity and spot volatility around public news announcements. Consistent with the predictions derived from a theoretical model in which investors agree to disagree, our estimates for the intraday volume-volatility elasticity around the most important news announcements are systematically below unity. Our elasticity estimates also decrease significantly with measures of disagreements in beliefs, economic uncertainty, and textual-based sentiment, further highlighting the key role played by differences-of-opinion.
    Keywords: Differences-of-opinion, high-frequency data, jumps, macroeconomic news announcements, trading volume, stochastic volatility, economic uncertainty, textual sentiment
    JEL: C51 C52 G12
    Date: 2016–06–23
  3. By: Albina Danilova
    Abstract: This paper studies the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders, and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy signal of the insider's information. I provide a characterization of all optimal strategies, and prove existence of both Markovian and non Markovian equilibria by deriving closed form solutions for the optimal order process of the informed trader and the optimal pricing rule of the market maker. The consideration of non Markovian equilibrium is relevant since the market maker might decide to re-weight past information after receiving a new signal. Also, I show that a) there is a unique Markovian equilibrium price process which allows the insider to trade undetected, and that b) the presence of an insider increases the market informational efficiency, in particular for times close to dividend payment.
    Date: 2016–06
  4. By: Anton Tsoy (EIEF)
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model of decentralized asset markets with both search delays and endogenous bargaining delays arising in the limit of almost public information about the asset quality. The model has several implications for liquidity and prices. First, conditional on the public information, the liquidity is U-shaped in the quality and assets in the middle of the quality range may not be traded at all. Second, search and bargaining frictions have opposite effects on the market liquidity showing that transparency, while welfare improving, may also hurt the market liquidity. Third, the substitutability of different asset classes leads to flights-to-liquidity during periods of market uncertainty and reveals adverse effects of gradual transparency policies. Finally, the paper derives the effect of asset liquidity, market liquidity and market tightness on asset prices.
    Date: 2016

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