
on Market Microstructure 
By:  Jack Sarkissian 
Abstract:  We study the relationship between price spread, volatility and trading volume. We find that spread forms as a result of interplay between order liquidity and order impact. When trading volume is small adding more liquidity helps improve price accuracy and reduce spread, but after some point additional liquidity begins to deteriorate price. The model allows to connect the bidask spread and highlow bars to measurable microstructural parameters and express their dependence on trading volume, volatility and time horizon. Using the established relations, we address the operating spread optimization problem to maximize marketmaking profit. 
Date:  2016–06 
URL:  http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.07381&r=mst 
By:  Saran Ahuja; George Papanicolaou; Weiluo Ren; TzuWei Yang 
Abstract:  Optimal control models for limit order trading often assume that the underlying asset price is a Brownian motion since they deal with relatively short time scales. The resulting optimal bid and ask limit order prices tend to track the underlying price as one might expect. This is indeed the case with the model of Avellaneda and Stoikov (2008), which has been studied extensively. We consider here this model under the condition when the underlying price is mean reverting. Our main result is that when time is far from the terminal, the optimal price for bid and ask limit orders is constant, which means that it does not track the underlying price. Numerical simulations confirm this behavior. When the underlying price is mean reverting, then for times sufficiently far from terminal, it is more advantageous to focus on the mean price and ignore fluctuations around it. Mean reversion suggests that limit orders will be executed with some regularity, and this is why they are optimal. We also explore intermediate time regimes where limit order prices are influenced by the inventory of outstanding orders. The duration of this intermediate regime depends on the liquidity of the market as measured by specific parameters in the model. 
Date:  2016–07 
URL:  http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00454&r=mst 
By:  Alessio Emanuele Biondo; Alessandro Pluchino; Andrea Rapisarda 
Abstract:  We introduce a new SelfOrganized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dy namics, by considering two assets with variable fundamental prices. Fat tails in the probability distributions of normalized returns are observed, together with other features of real financial markets. 
Date:  2016–06 
URL:  http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.09194&r=mst 
By:  Geert Dhaene; Jianbin Wu 
Abstract:  We introduce and evaluate mixedfrequency multivariate GARCH models for forecasting lowfrequency (weekly or monthly) multivariate volatility based on highfrequency intraday returns (at fiveminute intervals) and on the overnight returns. The lowfrequency conditional volatility matrix is modelled as a weighted sum of an intraday and an overnight component, driven by the intraday and the overnight returns, respectively. The components are specified as multivariate GARCH (1,1) models of the BEKK type, adapted to the mixedfrequency data setting. For the intraday component, the squared highfrequency returns enter the GARCH model through a parametrically specified mixeddata sampling (MIDAS) weight function or through the sum of the intraday realized volatilities. For the overnight component, the squared overnight returns enter the model with equal weights. Alternatively, the lowfrequency conditional volatility matrix may be modelled as a singlecomponent BEKKGARCH model where the overnight returns and the highfrequency returns enter through the weekly realized volatility (defined as the unweighted sum of squares of overnight and highfrequency returns), or where the overnight returns are simply ignored. All model variants may further be extended by allowing for a nonparametrically estimated slowlyvarying longrun volatility matrix. The proposed models are evaluated using fiveminute and overnight return data on four DJIA stocks (AXP, GE, HD, and IBM) from January 1988 to November 2014. The focus is on forecasting weekly volatilities (defined as the low frequency). The mixedfrequency GARCH models are found to systematically dominate the lowfrequency GARCH model in terms of insample fit and outofsample forecasting accuracy. They also exhibit much lower lowfrequency volatility persistence than the lowfrequency GARCH model. Among the mixedfrequency models, the lowfrequency persistence estimates decrease as the data frequency increases from daily to fiveminute frequency, and as overnight returns are included. That is, ignoring the available highfrequency information leads to spuriously high volatility persistence. Among the other findings are that the singlecomponent model variants perform worse than the twocomponent variants; that the overnight volatility component exhibits more persistence than the intraday component; and that MIDAS weighting performs better than not weighting at all (i.e., than realized volatility). 
Date:  2016–06 
URL:  http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:544330&r=mst 