nep-mst New Economics Papers
on Market Microstructure
Issue of 2014‒10‒17
two papers chosen by
Thanos Verousis

  1. Preventing endogenous extreme events in herding dominant agent-based financial market By Aleksejus Kononovicius; Vygintas Gontis
  2. The effects of intraday foreign exchange market operations in Latin America: results for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru By Miguel Fuentes; Pablo Pincheira; Juan Manuel Julio; Hernán Rincón; Santiago García-Verdú; Miguel Zerecero; Marco Vega; Erick Lahura; Ramon Moreno

  1. By: Aleksejus Kononovicius; Vygintas Gontis
    Abstract: A characteristic feature of complex systems in general is a tight coupling between their constituent parts. In complex socio-economic systems this kind of behavior leads to self-organization, which may be both desirable (e.g. social cooperation) and undesirable (e.g. mass panic, financial "bubbles" or "crashes"). Abundance of the empirical data as well as general insights into the trading behavior enables the creation of simple agent-based models reproducing sophisticated statistical features of the financial markets. In this contribution we consider a possibility to prevent self-organized extreme events in artificial financial market setup built upon a simple agent-based herding model. We show that introduction of agents with predefined fundamentalist trading behavior helps to significantly reduce the probability of the extreme price fluctuations events. We also test random trading control strategy, which was previously found to be promising, and find that its impact on the market is rather ambiguous. Though some of the results indicate that it might actually stabilize financial fluctuations.
    Date: 2014–09
  2. By: Miguel Fuentes; Pablo Pincheira; Juan Manuel Julio; Hernán Rincón; Santiago García-Verdú; Miguel Zerecero; Marco Vega; Erick Lahura; Ramon Moreno
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of sterilised, intraday foreign exchange market operations (non-discretionary and discretionary) on foreign exchange returns and volatility in four inflation targeting economies in Latin America. The distribution of exchange rates during intervention and non-intervention days are first compared, and then event study regressions are used to estimate the impact of intervention (and macro surprises) on exchange rate returns and exchange rate volatility as well as on foreign exchange market turnover (in Colombia). In general, the results suggest that the impact of both non-discretionary and discretionary operations is at times significant but transitory. However, an analysis of Chile's experience suggests that the announcement effects of even non-discretionary programmes may be significant and persistent.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, central bank intervention, microstructure
    Date: 2014–09

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