Abstract: |
Using agent-based modeling, this study creates a global carbon trading
simulation system, and simulates the global carbon trading market under
different scenarioes. To evaluate the effect of quota-based carbon emission
permits trading mechanism globally, this article constructs a carbon trading
model by using ABS modeling technology, and then develops a global carbon
trading system, finally examining the capital flows of carbon trading and its
impact on global climate protection. Simulation results shows that :( 1) the
results of carbon trading depend on quota allocation. To offset the numerous
historic carbon emissions, developed countries such as US would face huge
quota deficits in the former scenario. (2) With a decrease in global carbon
emission quotas and an increase demand for carbon emissions, the global carbon
price will rise in the future.(3) The implementation of carbon trading is
helpful for transferring capital mainly from developed countries to developing
countries. (4)Under the carbon emission trading process, developed countries
will purchase a large number of emissions quotas from developing countries,
therefore, the cumulative carbon emissions per capita in developed countries
will be still much higher than that in developing countries. (5) In both
scenarios, carbon emission trading always increases the global Ramsey utility. |
Keywords: |
China (CN), the US (US), the EU (EU), Japan (JP), the former Soviet Union (FSU), and rest of the world (ROW)., Agent-based modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |