|
on Market Microstructure |
| By: | Nikolaus Hautsch (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Dieter Hess (University of Cologne); Christoph Müller (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Bayesian learning provides the core concept of processing noisy information. In standard Bayesian frameworks, assessing the price impact of information requires perfect knowledge of news’ precision. In practice, however, precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning, suggesting traders infer news’ precision from magnitudes of surprises and from external sources. We show that interactions of the different precision signals may result in highly nonlinear price responses. Empirical tests based on intra-day T-bond futures price reactions to employment releases confirm the model’s predictions and show that the effects are statistically and economically significant. |
| Keywords: | prediction Bayesian learning; macroeconomic announcements; information quality; precision signals |
| JEL: | E44 G14 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiefr:200801&r=mst |
| By: | Jung, Robert; Liesenfeld, Roman; Richard, Jean-Francois |
| Abstract: | We propose a dynamic factor model for the analysis of multivariate time series count data. Our model allows for idiosyncratic as well as common serially correlated latent factors in order to account for potentially complex dynamic interdependence between series of counts. The model is estimated under alternative count distributions (Poisson and negative binomial). Maximum Likelihood estimation requires high-dimensional numerical integration in order to marginalize the joint distribution with respect to the unobserved dynamic factors. We rely upon the Monte-Carlo integration procedure known as Efficient Importance Sampling which produces fast and numerically accurate estimates of the likelihood function. The model is applied to time series data consisting of numbers of trades in 5 minutes intervals for five NYSE stocks from two industrial sectors. The estimated model accounts for all key dynamic and distributional features of the data. We find strong evidence of a common factor which we interpret as reflecting market-wide news. In contrast, sector-specific factors are found to be statistically insignifficant. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic latent variables, Importance sampling, Mixture of distribution models, Poisson distribution, Simulated Maximum Likelihood |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:7365&r=mst |
| By: | Fulvio Corsi; Davide Pirino; Roberto Renò |
| Abstract: | This study reconsiders the role of jumps for volatility forecasting by showing that jumps have positive and mostly significant impact on future volatility. This result becomes apparent once volatility is correctly separated into its continuous and discontinuous component. To this purpose, we introduce the concept of threshold multipower variation (TMPV), which is based on the joint use of bipower variation and threshold estimation. With respect to alternative methods, our TMPV estimator provides less biased and robust estimates of the continuous quadratic variation and jumps. This technique also provides a new test for jump detection which has substantially more power than traditional tests. We use this separation to forecast volatility by employing an heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model which is suitable to parsimoniously model long memory in realized volatility time series. Empirical analysis shows that the proposed techniques improve significantly the accuracy of volatility forecasts for the S&P500 index, single stocks and US bond yields, especially in periods following the occurrence of a jump |
| Keywords: | volatility forecasting, jumps, bipower variation, threshold estimation, stock, bond |
| JEL: | G1 C1 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:534&r=mst |
| By: | Michael Kirchler |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present results from experimental asset markets and simulations with traders who receive asymmetric information about the fundamental value of an asset. In the experimental markets with repetition insiders outperform the market and uninformed random traders perform equally well as average informed traders. This is in line with the results of the equilibrium simulation output in which traders choose be- tween a random strategy and their fundamental strategy. We further ¯nd that the persistent underperformance of the average informed is not due to their overcon¯dence but due to the asymmetric information structure of the market. |
| Keywords: | Information economics, experimental economics, agent-based model, overconfidence, value of information |
| JEL: | C91 C92 G14 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2008-19&r=mst |
| By: | D.S.G. Pollock |
| Abstract: | A filtered data sequence can be obtained by multiplying the Fourier ordinates of the data by the ordinates of the frequency response of the filter and by applying the inverse Fourier transform to carry the product back to the time domain. Using this technique, it is possible, within the constraints of a finite sample, to design an ideal frequency-selective filter that will preserve all elements within a specified range of frequencies and that will remove all elements outside it. Approximations to ideal filters that are implemented in the time domain are commonly based on truncated versions of the infinite sequences of coefficients derived from the Fourier transforms of rectangular frequency response functions. An alternative to truncating an infinite sequence of coefficients is to wrap it around a circle of a circumference equal in length to the data sequence and to add the overlying coefficients. The coefficients of the wrapped filter can also be obtained by applying a discrete Fourier transform to a set of ordinates sampled from the frequency response function. Applying the coefficients to the data via circular convolution produces results that are identical to those obtained by a multiplication in the frequency domain, which constitutes a more efficient approach. |
| Keywords: | Signal extraction; Linear filtering; Frequency-domain analysis |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:08/32&r=mst |