New Economics Papers
on Market Microstructure
Issue of 2006‒06‒24
three papers chosen by
Thanos Verousis

  1. A Structural Error-Correction Model of Best Prices and Depths in the Foreign Exchange Limit Order Market By Ingrid Lo; Stephen G. Sapp
  2. Examining the Trade-Off between Settlement Delay and Intraday Liquidity in Canada's LVTS: A Simulation Approach By Neville Arjani
  3. A quoi réagit le marchés des obligations privées? By Marie Brière; Aurélie Cohen

  1. By: Ingrid Lo; Stephen G. Sapp
    Abstract: Traders using the electronic limit order book in the foreign exchange market can watch the posted price and depth of the best quotes change over the day. The authors use a structural errorcorrection model to examine the dynamics of the relationship between the best bid price, the best ask price, and their associated depths. They incorporate measures of the market depth behind the best quotes as regressors. They report four main findings. First, best prices and their associated depths are contemporaneously related to each other. More specifically, an increase in the ask (bid) price is associated with a drop (rise) in the ask (bid) depth. This suggests that sell traders avoid the adverse-selection risk of selling in a rising market. Second, when the spread-the error-correction term-widens, the bid price rises and the ask price drops, returning the spread to its long-term equilibrium value. Further, the best depth on both sides of the market drops, due to increased market uncertainty. Third, the lagged best depth impacts the price discovery on both sides of the market, with the effect being strongest on the same side of the market. Fourth, changes in the depth behind the best quotes impact both the best prices and quantities, even though those changes are unobservable to market participants.
    Keywords: Exchange rates; Financial markets
    JEL: C3 D8 F31
    Date: 2006
  2. By: Neville Arjani
    Abstract: The author explores a fundamental trade-off that occurs between settlement delay and intraday liquidity in the daily operation of large-value payment systems (LVPS), with specific application to Canada's Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). To reduce settlement delay, participants generally must maintain greater intraday liquidity in the system. Intraday liquidity and settlement delay can be costly for LVPS participants, and improvements in the trade-off are desirable. The replacement of standard queuing arrangements with a complex queue-release algorithm represents one such improvement. These algorithms are expected to lower intraday liquidity needs and speed up payments processing in an LVPS. Simulation analysis is used to empirically test this proposition for the case of Canada's LVTS. The analysis is conducted using a payment system simulator developed by the Bank of Finland, called the BoF-PSS2. The author shows that increased use of the LVTS central queue (which contains a complex queue-release algorithm) reduces settlement delay associated with each level of intraday liquidity considered, relative to a standard queuing arrangement. Some important issues emerge from these results.
    Keywords: Payment, clearing, and settlement systems
    JEL: E47 G21
    Date: 2006
  3. By: Marie Brière (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Crédit Agricole Asset Management); Aurélie Cohen (BFT Gestion)
    Abstract: Nous avons étudié quelles annonces économiques font significativement réagir le marché des obligations privées aux Etats-Unis. Nous avons mesuré l’impact sur 1 jour d’une trentaine d’annonces macroéconomiques sur les spreads de crédit, en affinant notre analyse grâce à une décomposition sectorielle et par rating. Nous trouvons qu’une liste restreinte de chiffres économiques fait réagir les spreads : quelques indicateurs d’activité (ISM, Chicago PMI), de confiance des consommateurs, d’inflation et d’emploi. Cette liste est très proche des chiffres qui font réagir les obligations d’Etat. Les résultats diffèrent assez fortement selon les ratings. Alors que les indicateurs cycliques économiques font fortement réagir les spreads de crédit High Yield, leur impact sur les spreads Investment Grade est beaucoup plus limité. C’est le contraire pour les chiffres d’inflation et les annonces de taux directeurs, qui font surtout bouger les spreads Investment Grade. Ces résultats peuvent s’expliquer par la plus grande vulnérabilité à la conjoncture économique des émetteurs les plus risqués, et aux clauses de désendettement spécifiques aux émissions High Yield. Notre étude permet également de mettre en évidence une disparité sectorielle des réponses des spreads de crédit aux annonces économiques. Le secteur de la finance est surtout impacté par les annonces de taux directeurs et celles reflétant la santé financière des consommateurs (confiance, dépenses personnelles, emploi). Le secteur des Utilities (services aux collectivités) est très impacté par les stocks, l’inflation et quelques indicateurs d’activité (Chicago PMI, production industrielle). Enfin, au sein des 8 sous-secteurs de l’industrie, il convient de distinguer les secteurs cycliques, très liés à la conjoncture et fortement influencés par les variables d’activité, des secteurs plus défensifs, qui réagissent à un nombre plus restreint d’indicateurs.
    Keywords: Corporate bonds, credit spreads, event studies.
    JEL: G14 G12 C22 C13
    Date: 2006–06

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