nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2023‒04‒17
23 papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-Universität Marburg

  1. Asymmetric effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy when rates are low By Laine, Olli-Matti; Pihlajamaa, Matias
  2. Monetary policy strategies for the euro area: optimal rules in the presence of the ELB By Mazelis, Falk; Motto, Roberto; Ristiniemi, Annukka
  3. Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics By Danny Hermawan; Denny Lie; Aryo Sasongko; Richard I. Yusan
  4. Big tech credit and monetary policy transmission: micro-level evidence from China By Yiping Huang; Xiang Li; Han Qiu; Changhua Yu
  5. Forward guidance and the exchange rate: A theoretical sign restricted VAR analysis. By Fabrice Dabiré
  6. Subjective Monetary Policy Shocks By Kento Tango; Yoshiyuki Nakazono
  7. The Natural Rate of Interest Rule By Adrián Ravier; Erwin Rosen
  8. Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation By Laurence M. Ball; Carlos Carvalho; Christopher Evans; Luca Antonio Ricci
  9. Firm Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Central Bank Credit Policy By Konrad Kuhmann
  10. Does External Debt Drive Inflation in Sudan? Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric ARDL approaches By Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud
  11. International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance By Javier Bianchi; César Sosa-Padilla
  12. Negative rates, monetary policy transmission and cross-border lending via international financial centres By Andreeva, Desislava; Coman, Andra; Everett, Mary; Froemel, Maren; Ho, Kelvin; Lloyd, Simon; Meunier, Baptiste; Pedrono, Justine; Reinhardt, Dennis; Wong, Andrew; Wong, Eric; Żochowski, Dawid
  13. Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: evidence from US monetary policy spillovers By Elliott, David; Meisenzah, Ralf R; Peydró, José-Luis
  14. The valuation haircuts applied to eligible marketable assets for ECB credit operations By Adler, Martin; Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo; Džaja, Tomislav; Manzanares, Andrés; Metra, Matteo; Vocalelli, Giorgio
  15. Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps By Manuel Amador; Javier Bianchi
  16. Predictive Optimized Model on Money Markets Instruments With Capital Market and Bank Rates Ratio By Bilal Hungund; Shilpa Rastogi
  17. The EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy from a central banking perspective. Challenges to the monetary policy landscape from a changing geopolitical environment. By Ioannou, Demosthenes; Pérez, Javier J.; Balteanu, Irina; Kataryniuk, Ivan; Geeroms, Hans; Vansteenkiste, Isabel; Weber, Pierre-François; Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Buysse, Kristel; Campos, Rodolfo; Clancy, Daragh; Essers, Dennis; Faccia, Donata; Freier, Maximilian; Gerinovics, Rinalds; Khalil, Makram; Kosterink, Patrick; Mancini, Michele; Manrique, Marta; McQuade, Peter; Molitor, Philippe; Pulst, Daniela; Timini, Jacopo; Van Schaik, Ilona; Valenta, Vilém; Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo; Viani, Francesca; Viilmann, Natalja; Almeida, Ana M.; Alonso, Daniel; Bencivelli, Lorenzo; Borgogno, Oscar; Borrallo, Fructuoso; Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía; Di Stefano, Enrica; Esser, Andreas; García-Lecuona, María; Habib, Maurizio; Jeudy, Bruno-Philippe; Lájer, Andrés; Le Gallo, Florian; Martonosi, Ádám; Millaruelo, Antonio; Miola, Andrea; Négrin, Pauline; Zangrandi, Michele Savini; Strobel, Felix; Tylko-Tylczynska, Kalina Paula
  18. Analysing the response of U.S. financial market to the Federal Open Market Committee statements and minutes based on computational linguistic approaches By Xuefan, Pan
  19. Special Drawing Rights: advantages, limitations, and innovative uses By Pérez Caldentey, Esteban; Villarreal, Francisco G.; Cerón Moscoso, Nicolás
  20. Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation By Dautović, Ernest; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Reghezza, Alessio
  21. A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Market Operations related to COVID-19 By Grahame Johnson
  22. Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect By Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti; Haonan Zhou
  23. Bank capital and economic activity By Paul-Olivier Klein; Rima Turk-Ariss

  1. By: Laine, Olli-Matti; Pihlajamaa, Matias
    Abstract: We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during the period of low nominal interest rates. We find that rate cuts are inflationary also during low interest rates. Positive quantitative easing surprises have a deflationary effect, but negative quantitative easing surprises have no inflationary effects. This result may be explained by information effects. The effect of monetary policy depends on the size of policy surprise and is lower during recessions than during booms. We also provide evidence that interest rate policy, forward guidance and quantitative easing are complementary to one another.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, asymmetric effects, inflation
    JEL: E50 E31
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Mazelis, Falk; Motto, Roberto; Ristiniemi, Annukka
    Abstract: We study alternative monetary policy strategies in the presence of the lower bound on nominal interest rates and a low equilibrium real rate using an estimated DSGE model for the euro area. We find that simple feedback rules that implement inflation targeting result in a binding lower bound one-fourth of the time as well as inflation and output exhibiting large downward biases and heightened volatility. Rule-based asset purchases that are activated once the policy rate reaches the lower bound are not able to fully offset the destabilizing effects of the lower bound if we assume plausible limits on the size of purchases. Makeup strategies, especially average inflation targeting with a long averaging window, perform better than inflation targeting. However, differences in performance across strategies become small if the response coefficients of the feedback rules are optimized. In addition, we find that the benefits of makeup strategies tend to vanish if agents exhibit a degree of inattention to central bank policies as estimated in the data. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37, E52, E58, E61, E71
    Keywords: asset purchases, effective lower bound, forward guidance, makeup strategies, monetary policy, optimal policy
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Danny Hermawan; Denny Lie; Aryo Sasongko; Richard I. Yusan
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of transaction cost-induced variations in the velocity of money on inflation dynamics, based on a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with an explicit money velocity term. The money velocity effect arises from the role of money, both in physical and digital forms, in reducing the aggregate transaction costs and facilitating purchases of goods and services. We find a non-trivial aggregate impact in the context of the Indonesian economy: our benchmark estimates suggest that a 10% decrease in money velocity, which might be facilitated by a new digital currency (e.g. CBDC) issuance, would reduce the inflation rate by 0:6-1:7%, all else equal. Using the estimates and within a small-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we analyze the potential implications of a CBDC issuance on aggregate fluctuations. A CBDC issuance that conservatively lowers the velocity of money by 5% is predicted to permanently raise the GDP level by 0:8% and lower the inflation rate by 0:8%. Both nominal and real interest rates are also permanently lower. Our findings imply that central banks could potentially use CBDCs as an additional stabilization policy tool by influencing the velocity.
    Keywords: inflation dynamics; transaction cost; velocity of money; digital money; digital currency; central bank digital currency (CBDC); aggregate fluctuations;
    Date: 2023–03
  4. By: Yiping Huang; Xiang Li; Han Qiu; Changhua Yu
    Abstract: This paper studies monetary policy transmission through BigTech and traditional banks. By comparing business loans made by a BigTech bank with those made by traditional banks, it finds that BigTech credit amplifies monetary policy transmission mainly through the extensive margin. Specifically, the BigTech bank is more likely to grant credit to new borrowers compared with conventional banks in response to expansionary monetary policy. The BigTech bank's advantages in information, monitoring, and risk management are the potential mechanisms. In addition, the usage of BigTech credit is associated with a stronger response of firms' sales in response to monetary policy.
    Keywords: financial technology, monetary policy transmission, bank lending
    JEL: G21 E52 G23
    Date: 2023–03
  5. By: Fabrice Dabiré (Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: This paper uses zero and signs restrictions to study the effect of the U.S. forward guidance and unanticipated monetary policy on four U.S. bilateral nominal exchange rates and net exports. I find that although the U.S. forward guidance easing depreciates the exchange rate, the policy does not transmit to the real activity via an “expenditure-switching effect” on the net exports. The use of narrative sign restrictions improves the identification method. The complementary results are as follows: a VAR model augmented with interest rate forecasts contains at least enough information to identify the forward guidance and unanticipated monetary shocks; the nominal bilateral exchange rates depreciate by two to four percent after a 25 basis point forward guidance easing in a hump-shaped pattern without any deviation from the Uncovered Interest rate Parity condition; both shocks explain between 7.3 percent to 27.9 percent of the exchange rates variance, and the forward guidance shock contributes to at least half of this variance decomposition; finally, forecasters perceive the forward guidance shock as future deviation from the Taylor rule.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, Forward guidance, Exchange rate, Sign restrictions.
    JEL: E52 E58 F31 F41
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: Kento Tango; Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    Abstract: We propose a new concept of monetary policy shocks: subjective monetary policy shocks. Using a unique survey on both consumption expenditures and forecasts of interest rates, we identify a cross-sectionally heterogeneous monetary policy shock at the micro level. We first distinguish between exogenous and endogenous interest rate changes and define the exogenous component as a subjective monetary policy shock for each household. We then estimate the impulse responses of consumption expenditures to a subjective monetary policy shock. We find the stark contrasts in the dynamics of consumption expenditures between borrowers and lenders; in response to an unexpected rise in interest rates, consumption expenditures by borrowers decrease, whereas those of asset holders increase. We also find large and quick responses of consumption expenditures when households are attentive to interest rates. Our findings support the theoretical prediction of not only heterogeneous agent New Keynesian models, but also behavioral macroeconomics under imperfect information.
    Date: 2023–04
  7. By: Adrián Ravier; Erwin Rosen
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, Natural Rate of Interest Rule, Subprime Crisis
    JEL: E42 E58
    Date: 2021–11
  8. By: Laurence M. Ball; Carlos Carvalho; Christopher Evans; Luca Antonio Ricci
    Abstract: The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggregation of the CPI over 1990-2021, and compares the properties of this measure to those of standard core. For quarterly data, we find that the weighted median is less volatile than standard core, more closely related to economic slack, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most countries, it has a lower average level than headline inflation. We therefore also consider a measure of core inflation that eliminates this bias, which is based on the percentile of sectoral inflation rates that matches the sample average of headline CPI inflation.
    JEL: C43 E31 E52
    Date: 2023–03
  9. By: Konrad Kuhmann
    Abstract: I study the role of firm heterogeneity for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy in the form of “credit policy†à la Gertler and Karadi (2011). To this end, I lay out a Two-Agent New-Keynesian model with financially constrained and unconstrained firms and a financial intermediary with an endogenous leverage constraint. I find that, when firms are heterogeneous, aggregate investment is substantially less responsive to credit policy compared to an identical firm setting. Moreover, when debt markets are segmented, credit policy directed exclusively at financially unconstrained firms is most effective. My paper provides a tractable framework to illustrate mechanisms through which firm heterogeneity affects the transmission of credit policy. According to my findings, the presence of firm heterogeneity can be expected to make credit policy less effective than predicted by a representative agent framework.
    Keywords: Credit Policy, Firm Heterogeneity, Investment, Financial Frictions
    JEL: E50 E52 E58
    Date: 2023–03–23
  10. By: Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud
    Abstract: Purpose: This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach: We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings: The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically impact inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications: The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/Value: To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.
    Keywords: External Debt, Exchange rate, Inflation, Money supply, NARDL, Sudan
    JEL: E31 E52 F34 O24
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Javier Bianchi (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); César Sosa-Padilla (University of Notre Dame and NBER)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the implications of international financial sanctions for the reserve currency status of the US dollar. We propose a simple model of a reserve currency, demonstrate how the anticipation of financial sanctions can weaken the dollar’s status, and evaluate the welfare implications.
    Keywords: International Sanctions, Reserve currency status
    JEL: E42 F31 F32 F34 F41 P48
    Date: 2023–03
  12. By: Andreeva, Desislava (European Central Bank); Coman, Andra (European Central Bank); Everett, Mary (Central Bank of Ireland); Froemel, Maren (Bank of England); Ho, Kelvin (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Lloyd, Simon (Bank of England); Meunier, Baptiste (Banque de France and European Central Bank); Pedrono, Justine (Banque de France); Reinhardt, Dennis (Bank of England); Wong, Andrew (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Wong, Eric (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Żochowski, Dawid (European Central Bank)
    Abstract: We study the effects of negative interest rate policies (NIRP) on the transmission of monetary policy through cross-border lending. Using bank-level data from international financial centres (IFCs) – the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Ireland – we examine how NIRP in the economies where banks have their headquarters influences cross-border lending from financial-centre affiliates. We find that NIRP impairs the bank-lending channel for cross‑border lending to non-bank sectors, especially for those banks that have only a weak deposit base in IFCs – and are thus relatively more exposed to NIRP in their headquarters. Using euro-area data, including bank-level data from France, we find that NIRP does not influence overall cross-border lending from banks’ headquarters’ economies, but NIRP does impair lending to financial sectors based in IFCs. This impairment is stronger for banks with a large deposit base in headquarter economies exposed to NIRP.
    Keywords: Bank lending; cross-border lending; international financial centres; monetary policy; negative interest rates; risk-taking.
    JEL: E52 F34 F36 F42 G21
    Date: 2023–01–06
  13. By: Elliott, David (Bank of England); Meisenzah, Ralf R (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Peydró, José-Luis (Imperial College London, ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra-CREI-Barcelona GSE, and CEPR)
    Abstract: We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. For identification, we exploit loan‑level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. We find that when US monetary policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non‑US corporate borrowers, relative to banks. This partially mitigates the total reduction in dollar lending. The substitution is stronger for emerging market borrowers, riskier borrowers, and borrowers in countries subject to stronger capital inflow restrictions. Results suggest that our findings are not driven by borrower‑lender matching, zombie lending, or destabilising lending. Moreover, the credit substitution has real effects, as firms with existing relationships with nonbank lenders increase total debt, investment, and employment relative to firms without such relationships. Our findings suggest that having more diversified funding providers (nonbanks in addition to banks) reduces the volatility in capital flows and economic activity associated with the global financial cycle.
    Keywords: Nonbank lending; international monetary policy spillovers; global financial cycle; banks; US dollar funding for non-US firms
    JEL: E50 F34 F42 G21 G23
    Date: 2023–01–13
  14. By: Adler, Martin; Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo; Džaja, Tomislav; Manzanares, Andrés; Metra, Matteo; Vocalelli, Giorgio
    Abstract: In implementing its monetary policy, the ECB conducts collateralised credit operations with banks. The bulk of the financial risks involved in these collateralised credit operations are mitigated primarily by the valuation haircuts imposed on the mobilised collateral. Since the establishment of the euro in January 1999, valuation haircuts have been formulated mainly on the basis of risk management considerations and have been systematically calibrated with a very low level of risk tolerance. However, their implied risk tolerance may sometimes be used as a monetary policy stance lever, as clearly illustrated when the ECB decided to reduce haircuts to improve funding conditions for the real economy during the outset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition, the ECB ensures that financial market developments warranting general methodological changes are incorporated into the calibration of valuation haircuts adequately and in good time. In a particularly challenging economic environment, the ECB has also recently committed to ensuring that climate change risks are considered when calibrating the valuation haircuts applied to corporate bonds. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and explanation of the main guiding rules, as well as explaining some of the statistical methods currently employed by the ECB when formulating valuation haircuts. Keywords: monetary policy implementation, risk control framework of credit operations, valuation haircuts JEL Classification: D02, E58, G32, Q54
    Keywords: monetary policy implementation, risk control framework of credit operations, valuation haircuts
    Date: 2023–03
  15. By: Manuel Amador; Javier Bianchi
    Abstract: We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter drops are irrelevant.
    JEL: E31 E52 E58 E61 E63
    Date: 2023–03
  16. By: Bilal Hungund; Shilpa Rastogi
    Abstract: The money market and the capital market of the Indian financial markets have a symbiotic relationship in the development of the Indian economy. The nature and the characteristics of the markets differ to a large extent as the money market ensures liquidity in the system through the monetary policy by the regulators; capital markets propel and act as the engine driver for the economy in the long term. Therefore, the final throughput of the economy is the aggregation of the output of both the markets. Does that imply that the development of both markets is parallel in nature or is any one superior to the other or are they competitors? To understand the influence of one over the other the research was undertaken through a correlation matrix and time series model. A predictive model was further constructed for predicting the volume of money market instrument on the basis of fourteen days historical.
    Date: 2023–03
  17. By: Ioannou, Demosthenes; Pérez, Javier J.; Balteanu, Irina; Kataryniuk, Ivan; Geeroms, Hans; Vansteenkiste, Isabel; Weber, Pierre-François; Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Buysse, Kristel; Campos, Rodolfo; Clancy, Daragh; Essers, Dennis; Faccia, Donata; Freier, Maximilian; Gerinovics, Rinalds; Khalil, Makram; Kosterink, Patrick; Mancini, Michele; Manrique, Marta; McQuade, Peter; Molitor, Philippe; Pulst, Daniela; Timini, Jacopo; Van Schaik, Ilona; Valenta, Vilém; Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo; Viani, Francesca; Viilmann, Natalja; Almeida, Ana M.; Alonso, Daniel; Bencivelli, Lorenzo; Borgogno, Oscar; Borrallo, Fructuoso; Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía; Di Stefano, Enrica; Esser, Andreas; García-Lecuona, María; Habib, Maurizio; Jeudy, Bruno-Philippe; Lájer, Andrés; Le Gallo, Florian; Martonosi, Ádám; Millaruelo, Antonio; Miola, Andrea; Négrin, Pauline; Zangrandi, Michele Savini; Strobel, Felix; Tylko-Tylczynska, Kalina Paula
    Abstract: Over the past decade, geopolitical developments - and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world - have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU's economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU's OSA policy agenda which extend to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB's monetary policy and other policies. JEL Classification: F0, F10, F30, F4, F5, F45, E42, L5, Q43
    Keywords: capital flows, European Central Bank, European Economic and Monetary Union, financial market infrastructures, financial stability, geoeconomics, geopolitics, globalisation, global value chains, industrial policy, international trade, monetary policy, multilateralism, Open Strategic Autonomy
    Date: 2023–03
  18. By: Xuefan, Pan (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: I conduct content analysis and extent the existing models of analysing the reaction of the stock market and foreign currency markets to the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements and meeting minutes. The tone changes and uncertainty level of the monetary policy communication are constructed using the dictionary-based word-count approach at the whole document level. I further apply the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm to investigate the different impacts of topics in the meeting minutes. High-frequency data is used as the analysis is an event study. I find that the tone change and uncertainty level have limited explanation power on the magnitude of the effect of the release of FOMC documents especially statements on the financial market. The communication from FOMC is more informative for the market during the zero lower bound period, compared to the whole sample period.
    Keywords: Monetary policy ;Communication ; Text Mining JEL Classification: E52 ; E58
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Pérez Caldentey, Esteban; Villarreal, Francisco G.; Cerón Moscoso, Nicolás
    Date: 2023–01–20
  20. By: Dautović, Ernest; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Reghezza, Alessio
    Abstract: At the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks’ capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB’s dividend recommendation on bank lending and risk-taking. To address identification issues, we rely on credit registry data and a direct measure that captures variation in compliance with the recommendation across banks in the euro area. The analysis disentangles the confounding effects stemming from the wide range of monetary and fiscal policies that supported credit during the Covid-19 downturn and investigates their interaction with the dividend recommendation. We find that dividend restrictions have been an effective policy in supporting financially constrained firms, adding capital space to banks, and limiting procyclical behaviour. The effects on lending are larger for small and medium enterprises and for firms operating in Covid-19 vulnerable sectors. At the same time, we do not find evidence of a significant increase in lending to riskier borrowers and ”zombie” firms. JEL Classification: E5, E51, G18, G21
    Keywords: Covid-19, credit supply, dividend restrictions, European Central Bank, supervisory policy
    Date: 2023–03
  21. By: Grahame Johnson
    Abstract: The economic lockdowns that began in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic led to an unparalleled level of financial market disruption. Investors sought liquidity by selling financial assets and drawing down loans and credit lines. The speed, scale and one-way nature of these transactions caused an almost complete breakdown of market functioning. In response, the Bank of Canada launched 10 extraordinary programs, 9 of which had never been used before, to restore market functioning. As market conditions improved, 9 of the 10 programs were wound down. One, the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, was continued and transitioned into a monetary policy tool. In general, most of the programs were well designed and effectively executed—an impressive achievement given the circumstances under which they were conceived, developed and deployed. The extreme level of uncertainty and the magnitude of the downside risks to economic and financial activity warranted an aggressive response. Going forward, however, several areas exist where program design and implementation could be changed if these programs ever need to be used again. Overall, the design and implementation recommendations for future interventions focus on the need to ensure the programs are appropriately structured, in terms of both size and duration, for the financial and economic circumstances. Given the speed with which the outlook can change, program parameters must be flexible, and the Bank must be nimble in making the necessary adjustments.
    Keywords: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Financial markets; Financial stability
    JEL: D47 E41 E5 G01 G14 G23 H12
    Date: 2023–03
  22. By: Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti; Haonan Zhou
    Abstract: We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.
    Keywords: Covered interest parity; Interest rate differentials; Forward foreign exchange market; Financial market arbitrage; Emerging markets; CIP deviation; FX Market development; short-term Covered Interest Parity; country default risk; segmented FX markets; Interest rate parity; Currencies; Currency markets; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Forward exchange rates; Global
    Date: 2023–02–10
  23. By: Paul-Olivier Klein (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon); Rima Turk-Ariss (International Monetary Fund (IMF))
    Abstract: Banks argue that holding higher capital will have adverse implications on their lending activities and thereby on economic growth. Yet, the effect of a stronger capital base on economic growth remains largely unsettled. We argue that better capitalized banks improve financial stability conditions and, in dire times, they are able to sustain credit to the economy thereby containing adverse macroeconomic implications. Using various methods, we test for the presence and strength of a financial stability channel and a bank lending channel by drawing evidence from 47 advanced and developing countries over close to two decades. We find that higher capital ratios improve financial stability and help sustain bank lending, ultimately exerting a positive influence on economic activity. These effects on real GDP growth are economically significant, reaching up to 1¼ percentage points for each percentage point acceleration in capital. Our main results are robust to various sensitivity checks, supporting the conclusion that safer banking systems do not bridle economic activity.
    Keywords: Bank capital, Financial stability, Bank lending, Economic growth
    Date: 2022–10

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