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on Monetary Economics |
| By: | Gianluca Benigno; Pierpaolo Benigno |
| Abstract: | We propose a new framework for monetary policy analysis to study monetary policy normalization when exiting a liquidity trap. The optimal combination of reserves and interest rate policy requires an increase in liquidity (reserves) a few quarters after the policy rate is set at the effective lower bound. Removal of accommodation requires that quantitative tightening starts before the liftoff of the policy rate. Moreover, the withdrawal of liquidity takes place at a very slow pace relative to the normalization of the policy rate. |
| Keywords: | reserve management; central bank balance sheet; quantitative tightening; quantitative easing; interest on reserves |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:94162&r= |
| By: | Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Lee, Sang Seok |
| Abstract: | For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identifted, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfted and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the "standard model" suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no, and yes. |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E52 E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:679&r= |
| By: | Agrippino, Silvia Miranda (Bank of England); Nenova, Tsvetelina (London Business School) |
| Abstract: | We compare the macroeconomic and financial spillovers of the unconventional monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. Monetary policy tightenings in the two areas are followed by a contraction in global activity and trade, a retrenchment in global capital flows, a fall in global stock markets, and a rise in risk aversion. Bilateral spillovers are also powerful. Fed and ECB monetary policies propagate internationally through the same channels – trade and risk-taking – but the magnitude of ECB spillovers is smaller. We postulate that the relative importance of the euro and the US dollar in the international financial system can help to explain such asymmetries, and produce tentative evidence that links the strength of the ECB spillovers to € exposure in trade invoicing and the pricing of financial transactions. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional monetary policy; high-frequency identification; international spillovers; Fed; ECB |
| JEL: | E52 F42 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0972&r= |
| By: | Ke Pang, Christos Shiamptanis (Wilfrid Laurier University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the historical behaviour of the Bank of Canada (BoC) from 1991, when the BoC adopted inflation targeting, until 2015. We use a newly released dataset that contains quarterly vintages of real-time historical data and BoC staff forecasts, and we present three novel empirical findings. First, over the full sample period we find that the BoC responds both to inflation and the real economy. The long-run coefficient on inflation exceeds unity, satisfying the Taylor principle. Second, we fi nd that there is considerable variation in the monetary policy coefficients. During the early period of our sample, we fi nd a strong response to inflation and no response to the real economy. But over time we fi nd that the response to inflation weakens, the Taylor principle disappears, and the response to the real economy rises substantially. At the later part of our sample, the BoC appears to respond to the real economy, but not to inflation. Third, we investigate if the BoC is responding to an alternative inflation measure that captures persistent inflation deviations, that is inflation that remains away from its target for an extended period. We augment our monetary policy rule with this new inflation measure and find that the BoC responds asymmetrically to positive and negative persistent inflation deviations, suggesting that persistent inflation overshooting and undershooting elicit different responses. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, forward looking Taylor rule, real-time data and forecasts, inflation deviations |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:bm0130&r= |
| By: | Mattia Girotti; Guillaume Horny; Jean-Guillaume Sahuc |
| Abstract: | We study how negative interest rate policy (NIRP) affects banks’ loan pricing. Using contract-level data from France, we show that NIRP affects bank lending rates to firms through a portfolio rebalancing channel: banks holding a one standard deviation more of cash and central bank reserves offer a 8.6 basis points lower loan rate after NIRP is introduced. The impact concentrates on medium-term loans (with maturity comprised between three and six years) but not on loans to risky firms, indicating that banks conduct a search for yield focused on term spreads. These findings suggest that NIRP complements quantitative easing policies. |
| Keywords: | Negative interest rates, portfolio rebalancing, search for yield, term spreads, banks |
| JEL: | E43 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2022-10&r= |
| By: | Robert G. King; Yang K. Lu |
| Abstract: | In his 2004 inflation targeting manifesto, Marvin Goodfriend described US monetary policy as implicit inflation targeting and advocated explicit targeting. Summarizing the 1965-2000 US inflation experience, he highlighted the importance of evolving Fed credibility, which accords with our recent work using a quantitative New Keynesian model. We define credibility as policy consistency with a publicly announced framework and develop two lessons theoretically. First, under explicit targeting, no conflict arises between flexible inflation targeting and maintaining/accumulating credibility. Second, implicit targeting reduces the effectiveness of expectations management and stabilization policy, as well as opening the door to costly inflation scare episodes |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30012&r= |
| By: | Priit Jeenas; Ricardo Lagos |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of monetary-policy-induced changes in Tobin's q on corporate investment and capital structure. We develop a theory of the mechanism, provide empirical evidence, evaluate the ability of the quantitative theory to match the evidence, and quantify the relevance for monetary transmission to aggregate investment. |
| JEL: | D83 E22 E44 E52 G12 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30023&r= |
| By: | Győző Gyöngyösi (Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich, Swiss Finance Institute, KU Leuven, NTNU, and CEPR); Ibolya Schindele (Central European University and Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | We study how monetary conditions change the supply by banks of mortgage credit to households. We exploit the widespread presence of foreign currency mortgages in Hungary and study this country's comprehensive credit registry. Changes in monetary conditions not only affect the supply of credit in volume, but also in its currency and risk composition. Hence, we establish a "bank-lending-to-households2 channel of monetary policy that is heterogeneous. While the availability of foreign currency mortgages weakens the domestic bank-lending channel overall, weakly capitalized domestic banks relying on swap transactions for their foreign currency lending are more sensitive to changes in monetary conditions. |
| Keywords: | Bank balance-sheet channel, household lending, monetary policy, foreign currency lending. |
| JEL: | E51 F3 G21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2022/2&r= |
| By: | Balázs Világi (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Balázs Vonnák (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | The majority of the New Keynesian DSGE literature assumes that the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy can be satisfactorily described by an interest rate rule without addressing the details of the money supply. We investigate whether this approach remains valid in the presence of inside money created by the banking system. To analyze this issue we present a framework based on the generalization of the IS and LM curves to dynamic general equilibrium models. We find that it is possible to implement a policy based on an interest rate rule even in the presence of inside money, although it requires a more complex toolkit of monetary policy implementation than it is assumed in models with only outside money. We also show that despite some current views, the existence of inside money does not invalidate the common macroeconomic wisdom that investments are linked to savings: both savings and financing matter in determining investments. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, interest rate rule, inside money, liquidity, money multiplier. |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2022/3&r= |
| By: | Juan Herreno; Mathieu Pedemonte |
| Abstract: | We study the differential regional effects of monetary policy exploiting geographical heterogeneity in income across cities in the United States. We find that prices and employment in poorer cities react more to monetary policy shocks. The results for prices hold for a wide range of narrow consumer expenditure categories. The results are consistent with New Keynesian models that allow for a differential share of hand-to-mouth consumers across regions, but not with models in which regions have different slopes of the Phillips curve. We show that an increase in heterogeneity across cities amplifies the effect of monetary policy on prices and employment. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy; Monetary Union; TANK |
| JEL: | E31 E24 E52 E58 F45 |
| Date: | 2022–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:94203&r= |
| By: | William Roberds |
| Abstract: | Recently, there has been much discussion as to whether central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) should be introduced, and if so, how they should be designed. This article offers a historical perspective on this discussion, with a survey of early public bank (proto-central bank) "analog currencies"—circulating banknotes. Public banknotes were an experimental product when they were first issued in sixteenth-century Naples, but by the late nineteenth century, such notes could be found in most European countries. In between came all sorts of implementation difficulties: egregious insider fraud, a real estate finance bubble, hyperinflation, rampant counterfeiting, and complete institutional collapse. Despite these many misfires, central bank–issued notes eventually became the default form of payment in virtually every country worldwide. |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currency; banknotes |
| JEL: | E58 N13 |
| Date: | 2022–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:a00001:94152&r= |
| By: | Jongrim Ha (World Bank); M. Ayhan Kose (World Bank; Brookings Institution; CEPR; CAMA); Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank; CEPR; CAMA) |
| Abstract: | Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated even after these shocks subside and monetary policies are tightened further. Global growth has been moving in the opposite direction: it has declined sharply since the beginning of the year and, for the remainder of this decade, is expected to remain below the average of the 2010s. In light of these developments, the risk of stagflation—a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth—has risen. The recovery from the stagflation of the 1970s required steep increases in interest rates by major advanced-economy central banks to quell inflation, which triggered a global recession and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies. If current stagflationary pressures intensify, they would likely face severe challenges again because of their less well-anchored inflation expectations, elevated financial vulnerabilities, and weakening growth fundamentals. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; growth; COVID-19; global recession; monetary policy; fiscal policy; disinflation. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2204&r= |
| By: | Takuto Arao (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In Japan's money markets, negative interest rate transactions prevail under the three-tier system applied to the financial institutions' current accounts held at the Bank of Japan. This paper explains the mechanism of short-term interest rate formation under the three-tier system and the concept of market operations using a simple reserve demand curve model. Under the three-tier system, in which current deposits are divided into three tiers and different interest rates are applied to each tier, financial institutions have an incentive to conduct money market transactions for arbitrage purposes depending on to which tier their outstanding current account balances fill up prior to money market transactions. The Bank realizes negative interest rates consistent with yield curve control by taking steps so that the "hypothetical policy-rate balance (the policy-rate balance that remains assuming that arbitrage transactions have taken place in full), " is maintained at a certain level. The shape of the reserve demand curve is considered to be downward sloping around the boundaries of each tier due to the uncertainties over future course of current account balances. The shape and position of the reserve demand curve will change depending on the degree of the uncertainties and other factors such as the use of Special Operations in Response to COVID-19 and various loan support programs. Short-term interest rates also change when arbitrage transactions are not conducted in full due to market friction. It can be interpreted that the Bank influences on short-term interest rates by changing the reserve demand curve and the reserve supply curve through setting the Benchmark Ratio and carrying out market operations based on the information about these factors. |
| Keywords: | Negative interest rate; Tiered remuneration; Interbank market; Monetary policy implementation |
| Date: | 2022–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron220527a&r= |
| By: | Katya Kartashova; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | One of the most important channels through which monetary policy affects the real economy is changes in mortgage rates. This paper studies the effects of mortgage rate changes resulting from monetary policy shifts on homeowners’ spending, debt repayment and defaults. The Canadian institutional setting facilitates the design of identification strategies for causal inference, since the vast majority of mortgages in the country experience predetermined, periodic and automatic contract renewals with the mortgage rate reset based on the prevailing market rate. This allows us to exploit quasi-random variation in the timing of the rate reset and present causal evidence for both rate declines and increases, with the help of detailed, representative consumer credit panel data. We find asymmetric effects of rate changes on spending, debt repayment and defaults. Our results can be rationalized by the conventional cash-flow effect in conjunction with changes in consumer expectations about future interest rates upon the reset. Given the pervasiveness of Canadian-type mortgages in many other OECD countries, our findings have broader implications for the transmission of monetary policy to the household sector. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage rate; monetary policy; consumption; consumer expectations; household finance |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E43 E52 G21 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:94176&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo |
| Abstract: | This study complements the extant literature by assessing how enhancing supply factors of mobile technologies affect mobile money innovations for financial inclusion in developing countries. The mobile money innovation outcome variables are: mobile money accounts, the mobile phone used to send money and the mobile phone used to receive money. The mobile technology supply factors are: unique mobile subscription rate, mobile connectivity performance, mobile connectivity coverage and telecommunications (telecom) sector regulation. The empirical evidence is based on quadratic Tobit regressions and the following findings are established. There are Kuznets or inverted shaped nexuses between three of the four supply factors and mobile money innovations from which thresholds for complementary policies are provided as follows: (i) Unique adults’ mobile subscription rates of 128.500%, 121.500% and 77.750% for mobile money accounts, the mobile used to send money and the mobile used to receive money, respectively; (ii) the average share of the population covered by 2G, 3G and 4G mobile data networks of 61.250% and 51.833% for the mobile used to send money and the mobile used to receive money, respectively; and (iii) a telecom sector regulation index of 0.409, 0.283 and 0.283 for mobile money accounts, the mobile phone used to send money and the mobile phone used to receive money, respectively. Some complementary policies are discussed, because at the attendant thresholds, the engaged supply factors of mobile money technologies become necessary, but not sufficient conditions of mobile money innovations for financial inclusion. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afa:wpaper:aesriwp01&r= |
| By: | Ferrara, Gerardo (Bank of England); Mueller, Philippe (Warwick Business School); Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh (Warwick Business School); Wang, Junxuan (Warwick Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the price, volatility and micro-level effects of central bank swap lines during the 2020 pandemic. These policies lowered the ceiling on covered interest rate parity violations and reduced volatility following settlement of swap line auctions. We then combine dealer-level dollar repo auctions by the Bank of England with a trade repository that includes the universe of FX forward and swap contracts traded in the UK. We find evidence of a substitution channel: dealers that draw on swap lines reduce their demand for dollars at the forward leg in the FX market. We also find evidence that dealers that draw on swap lines increased their net supply of dollars to non-financial institutions, supporting the rationale for swap lines in providing cross-border liquidity to the real economy. |
| Keywords: | Swap lines; monetary policy; foreign exchange swaps; covered interest rate parity; central banking |
| JEL: | E44 F30 F31 F32 F41 G11 G12 G15 G18 G20 |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0977&r= |
| By: | Mushtaq, Saba; Mushtaq, Faiza |
| Abstract: | Effect of inflation (CPI) and other macroeconomic variable on bank deposits is the empirical issue in many countries but in Pakistan there is no significant work have been done about this relationship. This paper investigates the effect of different macroeconomic variables on bank deposits in Pakistan by using time series data from 1960 to 2010.Least square method and multiple regression model was used to analyze the data. The results clearly indicate that there is a negative relationship between inflation and bank deposits. Other macroeconomic variable which includes broad money, deposit rates, GDP and per capita income have positive impact on bank deposits. It is concluded that by efficient fiscal and monetary policy we can manage this macroeconomic variable in order to increase bank deposits. Per capita income can be increase by different policies and by reducing unemployment. Banks can play a vital role with the help of Government in order to manage these macroeconomic variables by using different policies and step to minimize the effects of these variables. |
| Keywords: | Bank deposits, Inflation (Consumer Price Index), Per Capita Income, Broad Money, GDP, Deposit rate |
| JEL: | E6 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113093&r= |
| By: | Ding Ding; Yannick Timmer |
| Abstract: | We estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate, the exchange rate between the tourism origin country vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar is an important driver of tourism flows, indicating a strong role of U.S. dollar pricing. The U.S. dollar exchange rate is more important for tourism destination countries with higher U.S. dollar borrowing, pointing toward a complementarity between U.S. dollar pricing and financing. Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) play only a minor role for the average country but are important for tourism-dependent countries and those with a high concentration of tourists. The importance of the U.S. dollar exchange rate represents a strong piece of evidence of dominant currency pricing (DCP) in the international trade of services and suggests that the benefits of exchange rate flexibility for tourism-dependent countries may be weaker than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, trade, tourism, dominant currency pricing |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9743&r= |
| By: | Charles W. Calomiris; Joseph R. Mason; David C. Wheelock |
| Abstract: | In 1936-37, the Federal Reserve doubled member banks' reserve requirements. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) famously argued that the doubling increased reserve demand and forced the money supply to contract, which they argued caused the recession of 1937-38. Using a new database on individual banks, we show that higher reserve requirements did not generally increase banks' reserve demand or contract lending because reserve requirements were not binding for most banks. Aggregate effects on credit supply from reserve requirement increases were therefore economically small and statistically zero. |
| Keywords: | reserve requirements; reserve demand; excess reserves; money multiplier |
| JEL: | E51 E58 G21 G28 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2022–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94179&r= |
| By: | Takushi Kurozumi; Willem Van Zandweghe |
| Abstract: | Should monetary policy offset the effects of labor supply shocks on inflation and the output gap? Canonical New Keynesian models answer yes. Motivated by weak labor force participation during the pandemic, we reexamine the question by introducing labor force entry and exit in an otherwise canonical model with sticky prices and wages. The entry decision generates an employment channel of monetary policy, and a labor supply shock to the value of nonparticipation in the labor market induces a policy trade-off between stabilization of the employment gap and wage growth. For an adverse labor supply shock, optimal policy dampens the decline in employment to rein in wage growth, which entails a period of higher inflation and a positive output gap. A welfare analysis of policy rules shows that monetary policy should not lean against the employment gap. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply shock; Labor force entry; Employment channel of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E52 J21 |
| Date: | 2022–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:94266&r= |
| By: | Gara Afonso; Domenico Giannone; Gabriele La Spada; John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | Does the federal funds rate respond to shocks when aggregate reserves are in the trillions of dollars? Has banks’ demand for reserves moved over time? We provide a structural time-varying estimate of the slope of the reserve demand curve over 2010-21. We estimate a time-varying vector autoregressive model at daily frequency with an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity. Consistent with economic theory, our estimates show a nonlinear demand function that exhibits a negative slope in 2010-11 and 2018-19 but is flat over 2012-17 and after mid-2020. We also find that the curve has moved outward, both vertically and horizontally. |
| Keywords: | demand for reserves; federal funds market; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E41 E43 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:94278&r= |
| By: | Ruthira Naraidoo (University of Pretoria); Juan Paez-Farrell (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the transmission mechanism of commodity price shocks in emerging economies. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that the shock leads to a real exchange rate appreciation, increases in output, inflation the nominal interest rate and the trade balance, and a fall in the unemployment rate. The transmission mechanism can be understood using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small commodity-exporting open economy with nominal as well as search and matching frictions. We find that the conduct of monetary policy is key to both the variables’ dynamics as well as to the magnitude of Dutch disease effects. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, emerging markets, inflation, monetary policy, search and matching, unemployment, Dutch disease, DSGE modelling |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E44 E52 E61 F42 O11 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2022008&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Fredrik N G (Lund University); Hjalmarsson, Erik (University of Gothenburg); Österholm, Pär (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Survey data indicate that a relatively large share of households is ill-informed about the rate of inflation in the economy, with perceived and expected rates of inflation deviating sub-stantially from official measures. Using Swedish micro-level data, we find that such inflation illiteracy is related to respondent characteristics, including income, education and sex. |
| Keywords: | Perceived inflation; Inflation expectations; Survey data; Economic literacy |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2022–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2022_006&r= |
| By: | Calero Roberto (Departamnento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.); Gabriel Rodríguez (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.); Salcedo Cisnero Roberto (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.) |
| Abstract: | We use a set of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VARSV) to estimate the evolution of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices for Peru over 1995Q2-2019Q4. According to two Bayesian selection criteria, the best-fitting models allow most parameters and the variances of shocks to evolve over time. The results are divided into two parts: (i) the ERPTs into import and producer prices decline significantly since the end of the 1990s until 2008. However, since 2014 both ERPTs resurge considerably due to exchange rate depreciation associated with the end of Quantitative Easing (QE), falling commodity prices, and global political events. These findings are in line with recent literature using TVP-VARSV and emphasizing ERTP resurgence after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC); (ii) the ERPT into consumer prices declined steadily throughout the sample. This is in line with the existing literature and is explained by a low-inflation context under an Inflation Targeting (IT) regime and by strong Central Bank credibility. Finally, the results are robust to a set of sensitivity exercises, including changes in the variables associated with the external shock and domestic economic activity, as well as in the values of the priors; and an estimation of the ERPT for Colombia. JEL Classification-JE: C11, C32, E31, F31. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Prices, Vector Autoregressive Model with TimeVarying Parameters, Stochastic Volatility, Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Models, Deviance Information Criterion, Marginal Likelihood, Peruvian Economy. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00510&r= |
| By: | Sardar, Rashedur (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Schaffer, Matthew (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates international monetary spillovers to stock prices in Bangladesh, a frontier market that has been excluded from prior studies in the literature. Using daily stock price data for over 300 publicly traded firms in a high-frequency framework, we find that contractionary monetary shocks originating from the US, euro area, and China lower stock prices, with Chinese monetary shocks having the largest impact. Contractionary shocks originating from India, on the other hand, lead to a statistically significant increase in stock returns. The positive response is driven by a small number of policy decisions. When these outlier decisions are removed from the sample, contractionary Indian monetary shocks lead to a decline in stock prices in line with spillovers from the other countries. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; International Spillovers; Frontier Markets; |
| JEL: | E58 G15 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2022_005&r= |
| By: | Julien Albertini (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France, France); Valentin Jouvanceau (Lietuvos Bankas); Stéphane Moyen (Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new strategy for modeling and solving state-dependent forward guidance policies (SCFG). We study its transmission channels using a DSGE model with search and matching frictions in which agents account for the fact that the SCFG is an endogenous regime-switching system. A fully credible SCFG causes a boom in inflation and output but no rapid exit from the ZLB. Thus, the transmission of its effects is primarily through the realization of additional ZLB periods more than through changes in expectations. We next consider the implications of imperfect credibility. In this case of uncertainty, an SCFG is less impactful. Finally, using counterfactual experiments on the December 2012 FOMC statement, we find that it led to about 1.5 pp gain in unemployment and 0.5 pp in inflation. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian model, Search and matching, ZLB, Forward guidance |
| JEL: | E30 J60 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2205&r= |
| By: | Alistair Macaulay; James Moberly |
| Abstract: | A given observation of uncertainty in expected inflation could be consistent with many different beliefs about how inflation is formed, with different implications for the aggregate transmission of shocks. We add novel questions to the Bundesbank Survey of Consumer Expectations to elicit (i) how persistent households perceive inflation to be, and (ii) how certain they are in their inflation perceptions. Combining these with existing survey questions, we infer laws of motion for expectations at the individual level. Based on averages alone, a standard model calibrated to our data predicts shocks to inflation generate small and transitory responses in expectations and consumption. Accounting for the large heterogeneity in expectation laws of motion across households, however, increases the transmission of inflation shocks to aggregate consumption through expectations by an order of magnitude, and substantially increases the persistence of the consumption response. |
| Date: | 2022–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:970&r= |
| By: | Monetary Affairs Department (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | On March 29, 2022, the first workshop on "Issues Surrounding Price Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic," entitled "Characteristics of Price Developments in Japan," was held at the Bank of Japan's Head Office. Taking differences in consumer price developments between Japan, the United States, and Europe in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic as a starting point, a lively discussion was held on the characteristics of price developments in Japan, involving experts and scholars in economics and empirical analysis. Session 1 focused on the characteristics of Japan's lower consumer price inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the US and Europe based on the results of an analysis using the price change distribution and core inflation indicators. In addition, based on empirical results showing that in Japan the interaction between wages and prices is weak, discussions were held on the link between the two, which is regarded as important in terms of the sustainability of inflation. In Session 2, service prices, which are one of the reasons for differences in consumer price developments in Japan, the US, and Europe, were highlighted and issues related to the measurement of service prices, especially rent, were discussed. It was pointed out that which measurement approach is used may have a sizable impact on the measured difference in the rate of inflation between Japan and other countries in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Session 3 consisted of a panel discussion focusing on three main issues: (1) the reason for the differences in consumer price developments between Japan, the US, and Europe; (2) the outlook for future prices; and (3) the challenges for monetary policy based on the current situation of and outlook for prices. With regard to (1), panelists generally agreed that major reasons for the acceleration in inflation in the US include the sharp recovery in demand and the decline in the labor force participation rate; in contrast, no similar developments were seen in Japan, so that consumer price inflation in Japan has remained weak compared to the US. Regarding (2), it was pointed out that on the one hand Japan faced the risk of prices falling again due to chronic deflationary factors that have been in place since before the pandemic and the decline in demand caused by the prolonged impact of COVID-19; on the other hand, there is also the risk of a rise in inflation due to the cost-push shock triggered by the sharp rise in commodity prices. It was then pointed out that the key factor in determining which risk is more likely to materialize is future developments in wages. Regarding (3), panelists shared the view that it is desirable to continue monetary easing in response to weak demand, while it is desirable to respond to price hikes in some items, particularly energy, by measures other than monetary policy. |
| Date: | 2022–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron220523a&r= |
| By: | De Koning, Kees |
| Abstract: | Who, in the U.S., is ultimately responsible for servicing government debt levels? They are the individual households, directly and indirectly through the ownership of companies. The number of households increased from 116.01 million as per the end of 2007 to 129.93 million per the end of 2021. The U.S. government debt per household increased from $53,617 per household as at the end of 2007 to $94,444 as per the end of 2021. With a 2021 median household income of $67.463, the U.S. government debt per household is now 1.4 times the median annual household income level over 2021. All central banks aim to stabilise prices when price levels go up. The usual response is to increase interest base rates. It is likely that the Fed will further increase its interest rate levels this year. The option of even more Quantitative Easing is not a very attractive one as the source of repayment of government debts will ultimately have to come from higher taxes on households. U.S. households will bear the brunt of such upward interest rate changes as and when the Fed adjusts its interest rates due to the expected further rise in consumer goods prices. Increases in interest rates are aimed to slow down demand levels to lower inflation pressures. U.S. households are and will be confronted with rising prices, higher taxes and consequently a reduced level of purchasing powers. There are four variables that play a major role in the economic adjustment processes: two are related to current disposable income and tax levels while the other two are linked to savings for pensions and savings in home equity. Conversion of wealth into income levels is rarely a straightforward process. A new approach might need to be considered: “Using existing home equity levels as a generator for economic growth.” Such approach would be an asset-based approach. This approach can be called the bottom-up approach: Quantitative Easing Home Equity (QEHE). It starts with each household individually and the level of purchasing powers they require. To allow households to use some of their home equity at 0% interest rate could provide the U.S. economy with just the boost it needs. It could be a freedom of choice method for households within a macro economic program. |
| Keywords: | Inflation and Recession; Federal Reserve options; Cash from Home Equity; |
| JEL: | E21 E24 E3 E31 E4 E42 E44 E6 E61 |
| Date: | 2022–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113109&r= |
| By: | Martha López-Piñeros; Norberto Rodríguez-Niño; Miguel Sarmiento |
| Abstract: | Portfolio flows are an important source of funding for both private and public agents in emerging market economies. In this paper, we study the influence of changes in domestic and US monetary policy rates on portfolio inflows in an emerging market economy and discriminate among fixed income instruments (government securities and corporate bonds) and variable income instruments (stocks). We employ monthly data on portfolio inflows of non-residents in Colombia during the period 2011-2020 and identify the monetary policy shocks using a SVAR model with long-run restrictions. We find a positive and statistically significant response of portfolio inflows in government securities and corporate bonds to changes in both domestic and US monetary policy rates. Portfolio inflows in the stock market react more to changes in the inflation rate and do not react to changes in monetary policy rates. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of the interest rate channel and remark the predominant role of inflation in driving portfolio inflows. The results suggest that domestic and US monetary policy actions have an important effect on the behavior of portfolio inflows in emerging economies. **** RESUMEN: Los flujos de portafolio son una fuente importante de financiamiento para los agentes públicos y privados en las economías emergentes. En este artículo, estudiamos la influencia de los cambios en las tasas de política monetaria doméstica y de los Estados Unidos sobre los flujos de portafolio en una economía emergente, discriminando entre instrumentos de renta fija (títulos del gobierno y bonos corporativos) e instrumentos de renta variable (acciones). Empleamos datos mensuales sobre flujos de portafolio de no residentes en Colombia durante el período 2011-2020. Los choques de política monetaria se identifican utilizando un modelo SVAR con restricciones de largo plazo. Encontramos una respuesta significativa de los flujos de portafolio en títulos del gobierno y bonos corporativos a los cambios en las tasas de política monetaria tanto domésticas como de los Estados Unidos. Los flujos de portafolio en el mercado de acciones reaccionan más a cambios en la tasa de inflación y no reaccionan a cambios en las tasas de política monetaria. Nuestros hallazgos son consistentes con las predicciones del canal de las tasas de interés y resaltan el papel predominante de la inflación sobre la dinámica de los flujos de portafolio. Los resultados sugieren que las acciones de política monetaria doméstica y de los Estados Unidos tienen un efecto importante sobre el comportamiento de los flujos de portafolio en las economías emergentes. |
| Keywords: | portfolio inflows, emerging market economies, monetary policy, SVAR models, interest rate channel, nflujos de portafolio, economías de mercados emergentes, política monetaria, modelos SVAR, canal de tasas de interés |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1200&r= |
| By: | Florian Peters; Doris Neuberger; Oliver Reinhardt; Adelinde Uhrmacher |
| Abstract: | In macroeconomics, an emerging discussion of alternative monetary systems addresses the dimensions of systemic risk in advanced financial systems. Monetary regime changes with the aim of achieving a more sustainable financial system have already been discussed in several European parliaments and were the subject of a referendum in Switzerland. However, their effectiveness and efficacy concerning macro-financial stability are not well-known. This paper introduces a macroeconomic agent-based model (MABM) in a novel simulation environment to simulate the current monetary system, which may serve as a basis to implement and analyze monetary regime shifts. In this context, the monetary system affects the lending potential of banks and might impact the dynamics of financial crises. MABMs are predestined to replicate emergent financial crisis dynamics, analyze institutional changes within a financial system, and thus measure macro-financial stability. The used simulation environment makes the model more accessible and facilitates exploring the impact of different hypotheses and mechanisms in a less complex way. The model replicates a wide range of stylized economic facts, including simplifying assumptions to reduce model complexity. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.00752&r= |
| By: | Ozge Akinci; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Albert Queraltó |
| Abstract: | Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries that operate under financial frictions and act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In this setup, an exogenous increase in U.S.-specific uncertainty, modeled as higher volatility in U.S. assets, leads to higher risk premia in both countries. This occurs because higher uncertainty leads to deleveraging pressure on U.S. intermediaries, triggering higher global risk premia and lower global asset values. Moreover, when U.S. uncertainty rises, the exchange rate in the foreign country vis-a-vis the dollar depreciates, capital flows out of the foreign country, and the UIP premium increases in the foreign country and decreases in the U.S., as in the data. |
| Keywords: | financial frictions; risk premia; time-varying uncertainty; intermediary asset pricing; financial spillovers; global financial cycle |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:94163&r= |
| By: | King, Benjamin (Bank of England); Semark, James (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Macroprudential authorities increasingly find themselves needing to assess, and act on, risks from outside the traditional banking system. How should they think about the costs and benefits of these actions? In this paper we present an approach to cost-benefit analysis for one topical issue related to non-banks – liquidity mismatch in open-ended funds (OEFs). In particular, we analyse the benefits and costs of more extensive use of swing pricing by UK corporate bond OEFs. Using several models, we quantify the impact of liquidity mismatch and swing pricing on corporate bond spreads and expected GDP growth. We estimate that greater use of swing pricing could reduce amplification of investment grade corporate bond spreads by around 8%, and improve the distribution of GDP growth. We discuss qualitatively the impact of swing pricing on fund liquidity buffers, and the possible costs of swing pricing. We conclude that there are likely to be financial stability benefits from more extensive use of swing pricing by UK corporate bond OEFs. |
| Keywords: | Cost-benefit analysis; mutual funds; swing pricing; corporate bonds |
| JEL: | D61 G12 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0975&r= |
| By: | Esteban Ramon Perez Caldentey; Lorenzo Nalin; Leonardo Rojas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a critical view of macroprudential regulation/policies found in mainstream and post-Keynesian economics. The paper provides a macroeconomic framework that can be used as a basis for the analysis of macroprudential guidelines and policies. It is based on on five main principles/guidelines: (i) financial fragility is endogenous and results from the normal functioning of market based economies driven by the profit motive; (ii) financial fragility can originate in the financial and real sectors of an economy; (iii) financial cycles are not necessarily driven by boom and busts and financial fragility need not originate in an economic boom; (iv) macroprudential policies should be viewed from a dynamic perspective, that is they must take into account the changes in the international financial architecture/structure and be region/country specific; and (v) macroprudential regulation/guidelines requires a truly macroeconomic framework. These principles are captured in the specification of a baseline stock-flow model for Latin America and the Caribbean with five sectors (government, central bank, financial sector, private sector, and external sector). The model is a tool that can be used for evaluating other macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | Debt, external constraint, external financial cycle, financial flows, Latin America and the Caribbean, microprudential and macroprudential regulation, stock-flow |
| JEL: | B59 E32 E52 F21 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2217&r= |
| By: | Dario Caldara; Sarah Conlisk; Matteo Iacoviello; Maddie Penn |
| Abstract: | Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." |
| Date: | 2022–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-05-27-2&r= |
| By: | Alain Hecq; Joao Issler; Elisa Voisin |
| Abstract: | This paper uses predictive densities obtained via mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models to evaluate the statistical sustainability of Brazilian inflation targeting system with the tolerance bounds. The probabilities give an indication of the short-term credibility of the targeting system without requiring modelling people's beliefs. We also investigate the added value of including experts predictions of key macroeconomic variables. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.00924&r= |
| By: | Richard Finlay (Reserve Bank of Australia); Dmitry Titkov (Reserve Bank of Australia); Michelle Xiang (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect on government bond yields of three Reserve Bank of Australia policy measures implemented following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also assess the impact of the three measures on government bond market functioning. The three measures were: purchases to support government bond market function over early 2020; the yield target on 3-year Australian government bonds; and the bond purchase program to lower longer-term yields from late 2020 until early 2022. For purchases to support market function, we find that the announcement lowered short-dated Australian Government Securities (AGS) yields, but did not lower longer-dated AGS yields. We also find that such purchases led to lower yields as and when they were implemented, and that they supported market function by lowering bid-offer spreads. For the yield target, we find a substantial announcement effect and moderate implementation effects on yields. Conversely, the yield target appears to have detrimentally affected some aspects of government bond market function. For the bond purchase program, we find an announcement effect of around 30 basis points for longer-term AGS yields, while any implementation effects were small and temporary. |
| Keywords: | market function; yield target; quantitative easing; event study |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G12 |
| Date: | 2202–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2022-02&r= |
| By: | Pablo Ottonello; Wenting Song |
| Abstract: | We provide empirical evidence of the causal effects of changes in financial intermediaries’ net worth on the aggregate economy. Our strategy identifies financial shocks as high-frequency changes in the market value of intermediaries’ net worth in a narrow window around their earnings announcements, based on US tick-by-tick data. Using these shocks, we estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2% to 0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms. These effects are more pronounced for firms with high default risk and low liquidity and when the aggregate net worth of intermediaries is low. |
| Keywords: | Asset pricing; Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Financial system regulation and policies; Monetary and financial indicators |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-24&r= |