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on Monetary Economics |
| By: | Lena Dräger (Leibniz University Hannover); Michael J. Lamla (Leuphana University of Lüneburg and ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute); Damjan Pfajfar (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) |
| Abstract: | By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German con-sumers’ inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using information about inflation projections, where numerical information about professional forecasters’ projections seems to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymaker’s characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Short-run and long-run inflation expectations, inflation surge, randomized control trial, survey experiment, persistent or transitory inflation shock |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 D84 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lue:wpaper:407&r= |
| By: | Antoine Camous; Dmitry Matveev |
| Abstract: | How should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policymakers? We study an environment with strategic monetary-fiscal interactions where the central bank has a limited degree of commitment to follow policies over time and the fiscal authority has none. We contrast the implications of two monetary frameworks: one where the central bank follows a standard rule aiming exclusively at price stability against the other, where monetary policy additionally leans against fiscal influence. The latter rule improves economic outcomes by providing appropriate incentives to the fiscal authority. More importantly, the additional fiscal conditionality can enhance the credibility of the central bank to achieve price stability. We emphasize how the level and structure of government debt emerge as key factors affecting the credibility of monetary policy with fiscal conditionality. |
| Keywords: | Credibility; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E02 E52 E58 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-11&r= |
| By: | Marco Del Negro; Aidan Gleich; Shlok Goyal; Alissa Johnson; Andrea Tambalotti |
| Abstract: | Yesterday’s post analyzed the drivers of the surge in inflation over the course of 2021 through the lens of the New York Fed DSGE model. In today’s post, we use the model to study how alternative monetary policy strategies might contribute to bringing inflation back down to 2 percent. Our main finding is that there is no monetary silver bullet. Due to a flat Phillips curve—a well–documented feature of the economic environment of the last three decades—monetary policy can only achieve faster disinflation at a considerable cost in terms of forgone economic activity. This is true regardless of the systematic approach followed by the central bank in the model to pursue its objective. |
| Keywords: | DSGE; inflation; macroeconomics; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E2 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93783&r= |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Markus K. Brunnermeier; Stephan Luck |
| Abstract: | We use the German Crisis of 1931, a key event of the Great Depression, to study how depositors behave during a bank run in the absence of deposit insurance. We find that deposits decline by around 20 percent during the run and that there is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale deposits from both ex-post failing and surviving banks. This implies that regular depositors are unable to identify failing banks. In contrast, the interbank market precisely identifies which banks will fail: the interbank market collapses for failing banks entirely but continues to function for surviving banks, which can borrow from other banks in response to deposit outflows. Since regular depositors appear uninformed, it is unlikely that deposit insurance would exacerbate moral hazard. Instead, interbank depositors are best positioned for providing “discipline” via short-term funding. |
| Keywords: | bank run; deposit insurance; financial crises |
| JEL: | G01 G21 N20 N24 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93785&r= |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Edward Simpson Prescott |
| Abstract: | This essay was written in memory of Marvin Goodfriend for a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond book called Essays in Honor of Marvin Goodfriend: Economist and Central Banker. We discuss his Carnegie-Rochester conference paper titled "The Role of a Regional Bank in a System of Central Banks." In that paper, Marvin argued that the Federal Reserve's decentralized structure allowed for competing ideas about monetary and banking policy to develop with the central bank. In our essay, we describe how Marvin demonstrated this argument during his long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. We also describe the institutional developments that led to this competition, including reforms that Chairman William McChesney Martin made to the operation of the Federal Open Market Committee in the 1950s and the introduction of monetary policy ideas such as monetarism and rational expectations by the Reserve Banks. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve structure; monetary policy; governance; Marvin Goodfriend |
| JEL: | B0 E58 G28 H1 |
| Date: | 2022–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:93876&r= |
| By: | Marco Del Negro; Aidan Gleich; Shlok Goyal; Alissa Johnson; Andrea Tambalotti |
| Abstract: | After a sharp decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rebounded in the second half of 2020 and surged through 2021. This post analyzes the drivers of these developments through the lens of the New York Fed DSGE model. Its main finding is that the recent rise in inflation is mostly accounted for by a large cost-push shock that occurred in the second quarter of 2021 and whose inflationary effects persist today. Based on the model’s reading of historical data, this shock is expected to fade gradually over the course of 2022, returning quarterly inflation to close to 2 percent only in mid-2023. |
| Keywords: | inflation; DSGE; macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E2 |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93778&r= |
| By: | An, Sungbae (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 has changed the way of our lives since it started emerging as a pandemic early 2020. The global experience leave a trauma, and eventually work as a main driver to reconsider and improve our system. The need for change becomes even bigger as the pandemic continues beyond initial expectations. With that, we are now entering the era of the great transformation. The brief focuses on examining the policy environment changed by the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzing the points to be considered when implementing future fiscal and monetary policies. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Post Pandemic; fiscal policy; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2022–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2022_007&r= |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Ryan N. Banerjee; Matteo Crosignani; Tim Eisert; Renée Spigt |
| Abstract: | We document capital misallocation in the U.S. investment-grade (IG) corporate bond market, driven by quantitative easing (QE). Prospective fallen angels—risky firms just above the IG rating cutoff—enjoyed subsidized bond financing since 2009, especially when the scale of QE purchases peaked and from IGfocused investors that held more securities purchased in QE programs. The benefitting firms used this privilege to fund risky acquisitions and increase market share, exploiting the sluggish adjustment of credit ratings in downgrading after M&A and adversely affecting competitors' employment and investment. Eventually, these firms suffered more severe downgrades at the onset of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | corporate bond market; investment-grade bonds; large-scale asset purchases (LSAP); credit ratings; credit ratings inflation |
| JEL: | E31 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93784&r= |
| By: | Seung Kwak |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of unanticipated monetary policy news around FOMC announcements on secondary market corporate loan spreads. We find that the reaction of loan spreads to monetary policy news is weaker than that of bond spreads: following an unanticipated monetary policy tightening (easing) shock, loan spreads do not increase (decrease) as much as bond spreads do. Decomposition of the spreads into compensations for expected defaults and risk premiums shows that differential reactions of loan and bond risk premiums are the main driver of the differential spread reactions. We further find that the weaker loan spread reactions to monetary policy shocks are more pronounced for riskier loans. Lastly, reactions of primary market loan spreads to monetary policy shocks are also muted. These findings highlight heterogeneous impacts of monetary policy across different types of corporate credit markets, possibly reflecting heterogeneous investor demand responses to monetary policy in those markets. |
| Keywords: | Corporate bonds; Monetary policy; Corporate loans |
| JEL: | E52 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-08&r= |
| By: | Nicola Cetorelli; Gabriele La Spada; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | Loan funds are open-end mutual funds holding predominantly corporate leveraged loans. We document empirically that loan funds are significantly more susceptible to run risk than any other category of debt funds, including corporate bond funds. Most importantly, we establish a link between loan funds’ flows and monetary policy, based on the institutional characteristics of their portfolio holdings. We find robust evidence indicating a pro-cyclical relationship between monetary policy and loan-fund flows. This relationship, however, is asymmetric: weaker for policy-rate increases and stronger for policy-rate decreases. Finally, the effect of monetary policy shocks on loan-fund flows also depends on the level of market short-term rates, suggesting that it is not only the direction of the monetary policy change that matters, but also the level of the policy rate at the time of the change. Our results thus identify a novel channel of monetary policy transmission affecting a critical segment of the credit sector, represented by leveraged lending. |
| Keywords: | mutual funds; monetary policy; leverage lending |
| JEL: | G23 E52 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93796&r= |
| By: | Jongrim Ha (World Bank); M. Ayhan Kose (World Bank; Brookings Institution; CEPR; CAMA); Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank; CEPR; CAMA) |
| Abstract: | Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation pressures that are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks and some advanced-economy central banks to increase interest rates. Inflation is expected to ease back towards targets over the medium-term as recent shocks unwind, but the 1970s experience is a reminder of the material risks to this outlook. As inflation remains elevated, the risk is growing that, to bring inflation back to target, advanced economies need to undertake a much more forceful monetary policy response than currently anticipated. If this risk materializes, it would imply additional increases in borrowing costs for EMDEs, which are already struggling to cope with elevated inflation at home before the recovery from the pandemic is complete. EMDEs need to focus on calibrating their policies with macroeconomic stability in mind, communicating their plans clearly, and preserving and building their credibility. |
| Keywords: | Global Inflation; Commodity Price; War in Ukraine; Global Recession; Great Inflation; Monetary Policy Tightening. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E37 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2202&r= |
| By: | Youssef Ulgazi; Paul Vertier |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present an updated version of the reference model used at Banque de France to forecast inflation: MAPI (Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation). While the conceptual framework of the model remains very close to its initial version, our update takes stock of three different factors. First, since the previous version of the model, the underlying nomenclature used at the European level (ECOICOP) to define some of the main aggregates was changed, therefore requiring a careful review of the relevance of initial equations. Second, in the context of the modification in 2019 of the main semi-structural macroeconomic model used for the macroeconomic projections at Banque de France (FR-BDF), it aims at harmonizing the iterations between MAPI and FR-BDF. Finally, large variations in the wage variables in the midst of the sanitary measures related to the Covid-19 pandemics pushed us to use different concepts of wage and compensation variables. At the crossroads of these considerations, we update the model extending the estimation window, correcting specifications and input variables whenever relevant. The resulting model is an up-to-date, simplified and more parsimonious version of the initial model, entailing a stronger harmonization with the central macroeconomic model FR-BDF. It still involves significant pass-through of wages, oil and exchange rate to HICP. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, Inflation, Time Series |
| JEL: | E37 C32 E31 C53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:869&r= |
| By: | Edouard Djeutem; Mario He; Abeer Reza; Yang Zhang |
| Abstract: | We compare the performance of alternative monetary policy frameworks (inflation targeting, average inflation targeting, price level targeting and nominal GDP level targeting) in a tractable HANK model where incomplete financial markets and idiosyncratic earnings risk introduce precautionary savings and consumption inequality. Financial market incompleteness generates an additional source of societal welfare loss due to cyclical fluctuations in inequality on top of those from inflation and output volatility. We find that history-dependent policies are preferred in this framework. However, if central banks put a high weight on curbing inequality, AIT and IT can be preferred over PLT. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission; Monetary policy and uncertainty; Economic models |
| JEL: | D31 D52 E21 E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-12&r= |
| By: | David Cimon; Adrian Walton |
| Abstract: | In the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, central banks purchased large volumes of assets in an effort to keep markets operational. We model one such central bank, which purchases assets from dealers to alleviate balance sheet constraints. Asset purchases can prevent market breakdown, improve price efficiency and reduce dealer risk positions. A central bank that purchases assets at their expected value is able to achieve market outcomes as if dealers were unconstrained. Absent other concerns, central banks can maximize welfare by purchasing assets at a premium, though they may create market distortions. Alternatively, central banks who bear costs associated with large interventions may only be willing to purchase assets at a discount. In the absence of leverage constraints, lending programs are as effective as asset purchases; when leverage constraints are present, lending programs lose effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Economic models; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Market structure and pricing |
| JEL: | G10 G20 L10 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-9&r= |
| By: | Barry Eichengreen; Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj |
| Abstract: | Stablecoins and central bank digital currencies are on the horizon in Asia, and in some cases have already arrived. This paper provides new analysis and a critique of the use case for both forms of digital currency. It provides time-varying estimates of devaluation risk for the leading stablecoin, Tether, using data from the futures market. It describes the formidable obstacles to widespread use of central bank digital currencies in cross-border transactions, the context in which their utility is arguably greatest. The bottom line is that significant uncertainties continue to dog the region's digital currency initiatives. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.07564&r= |
| By: | Patrick Honohan; Athanasios Orphanides |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews South Africa's monetary policy since 2007 and makes recommendations towards improving the inflation-targeting framework currently in place. Following a surge in inflation into double digits in 2007/08, the South African Reserve Bank managed to guide inflation in line with the 3-6 per cent target band. Estimates of South Africa's potential output underwent successive downward revisions. The resulting output gap misperceptions contributed to the tendency of inflation to be closer to the upper edge of the band in the 2010s. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Inflation targeting, Output gap, South Africa |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-29&r= |
| By: | Stefano Eusepi; Christopher G. Gibbs; Bruce Preston |
| Abstract: | We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run inflation expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to stabilize expectations. Policy is too stimulatory in the event of transitory shocks, but provides insurance against persistent shocks. Optimal policy is well-approximated by a constant calendar-based forward guidance, independent of the shock’s realized persistence. This insurance principle qualitatively and quantitatively distinguishes our paper from other recent research on bounded rationality and the forward guidance puzzle. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Monetary Policy, Learning Dynamics, Expectations Stabilization, Forward Guidance |
| JEL: | E32 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-26&r= |
| By: | Edmond Berisha; Ram Sewak Dubey; Orkideh Gharehgozli |
| Abstract: | In the recent times of global Covid pandemic, the Federal Reserve has raised the concerns of upsurges in prices. Given the complexity of interaction between inflation and inequality, we examine whether the impact of inflation on inequality differs among distinct levels of income inequality across the US states. Results reveal that there is a negative contemporaneous effect of inflation on the inequality which becomes stronger with higher levels of income inequality. However, over a one year period, we find higher inflation rate to further increase income inequality only when income inequality is initially relatively low. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.05743&r= |
| By: | Carlos Lourenço; Els Gijsbrechts |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a model of consumer patronage decisions to evaluate the effect of store price images vis-Ã -vis that of objective basket prices. Within this dual retail price model, the two types of price information are linked through the dynamic formation of price images over time, itself based on actual prices. We show that not accounting for the effect of (dynamic) price perceptions may seriously bias store traffic estimation in response to price changes. Finally, we explore which demographic and shopping characteristics of consumers may explain or shed light on differences in sensitivity to different price information. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp022022&r= |
| By: | Wataru Takahashi (Faculty of Economics, Osaka University of Economics and Research Fellow, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Taiji Inui (Japan International Cooperation Agency and Asia Development Bank (ADB), JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes “Asia Digital Common Currency (ADCC)” aiming at fostering Asian financial markets. We are proposing to issue a digital common currency controlled and managed under multilateral governance framework. As a result, the international currency, which should be an international public good, will be governed by a multilateral system. Under our proposed ADCC, each member country can carry out monetary policy independently. It also has a mechanism to maintain currency sovereignty in digital era. In addition, ADCC will contribute to the development of financial market infrastructures in Asia. It will foster the bond markets and standardize the Asian financial system. Asia lags behind Europe in monetary integration, but historically had experiences in common currency circulation. ADCC is an idea that should be thoroughly considered in order to develop the Asian and Japanese economies in the digital age. |
| Keywords: | Digital currency; Common currency; International currency as an international public good; Currency sovereignty (Münzhoheit); Anonymity; Independence of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E42 F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2022-06&r= |
| By: | Nocera, A.; Pesaran, M. H. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the short- and long-term impacts of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) on the capital structure of U.S. non-financial firms. To isolate the effects of LSAPs from the impact of concurrent macroeconomic conditions, we exploit cross-industry variations in the ability of firms therein to raise external funds without exhausting their debt capacity. We show that firms’ responses to LSAPs strongly depend on the financing decisions of other peers in the same industry. The higher the proportion of firms without high debt burdens in an industry, the stronger the response of firms within the industry to the Fed’s asset purchases. Overall, our results show that LSAPs facilitated firms’ access to debt financing and that the impacts of LSAPs on firms’ capital structure are likely to be long-lasting. |
| Keywords: | Capital structure, identification, interactive effects, leverage, quantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy |
| JEL: | G32 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2224&r= |
| By: | Piyali Das; Chetan Ghate (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi University, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, to study India’s debt dynamics, we assemble a novel data-set on Indian public debt with consistently defined aggregate annual components from 1951–2018, and Centre-State security level data from 2000–2018. Based on aggregate debt data, we quantify the contribution of inflation, real GDP growth, nominal interest rates and primary deficit/surplus towards India’s debt-dynamics. We find that inflation is an important component in financing India’s government debt historically. From the security level data, using the Hall-Sargent methodology, we find that nominal returns on the marketable and non-marketable portions of the Centre’s debt account for the highest contribution towards changes in public debt. Our paper helps inform the debate on the adoption of flexible inflation targeting in India. |
| Keywords: | Debt Decomposition, Fiscal Dominance, Indian Economy, Flexible Inflation Targeting, Public Debt in EMDEs. |
| JEL: | E62 E65 E52 G12 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awe:wpaper:451&r= |
| By: | Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge |
| Abstract: | Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation pressures that are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks and some advanced-economy central banks to increase interest rates. Inflation is expected to ease back towards targets over the medium-term as recent shocks unwind, but the 1970s experience is a reminder of the material risks to this outlook. As inflation remains elevated, the risk is growing that, to bring inflation back to target, advanced economies need to undertake a much more forceful monetary policy response than currently anticipated. If this risk materializes, it would imply additional increases in borrowing costs for EMDEs, which are already struggling to cope with elevated inflation at home before the recovery from the pandemic is complete. EMDEs need to focus on calibrating their policies with macroeconomic stability in mind, communicating their plans clearly, and preserving and building their credibility. |
| Keywords: | Global Inflation, Commodity Price, War in Ukraine, Global Recession, Great Inflation, Monetary Policy Tightening |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E37 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-29&r= |
| By: | Remo Nyffenegger |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of an introduction of a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) on bank intermediation in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous bank deposits and an imperfectly competitive loan market. I find that the impacts of a CBDC strongly differ depending on whether it is used as a medium of exchange or as a saving vehicle. A calibration of the model to the US economy from 1987-2006 shows that if a CBDC is only used as a medium of exchange, a 10% increase in the fraction of people who hold central bank money as a medium of exchange decreases bank lending only by 0.2%. The effect is four times stronger if CBDC is only used as a saving vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency, bank lending, new monetarism, overlapping generations |
| JEL: | E42 E50 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:409&r= |
| By: | Candelon, Bertrand (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium); Luisi , Angelo (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium); Roccazzella, Francesco (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Sovereign bond market fragmentation represents one of the major challenges European authorities have had to tackle since the outburst of the euro area debt crisis in 2010. By investigating the inter-country shock transmission through a new methodology that reconciles Factor and Global Vector Autoregressive models, we first show that fragmentation risk well preceded the sovereign debt crisis outburst. Most importantly, by analyzing the recent period, we document a rise in fragmentation risk in the euro area during the COVID pandemic. This rise, connected to the pressure on public debts and deficits due to the pandemic period, questions the European integration process and calls for early measures to avoid a new sovereign debt crisis. |
| Keywords: | Euro area ; Sovereign bond ; Fragment |
| JEL: | F36 F37 G12 H63 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajf:louvlf:2021015&r= |
| By: | Anat Bracha; Jenny Tang |
| Abstract: | Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current policy debate about whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent pandemic-related increases in inflation. This paper explores evidence of inattention by constructing two different measures of consumers’ inattention and documents greater inattention when inflation is low. This suggests that there is indeed a risk of an acceleration in the increases in inflation expectations if actual inflation remains high. |
| Keywords: | inattention; inflation expectations; expectation anchoring |
| JEL: | D80 E31 E70 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:93857&r= |
| By: | Pierluigi Bologna (Bank of Italy); Maddalena Galardo (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | While the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is not an automatic decision, insights from indicators, such as the credit-to-GDP gap, are a starting point to inform the policy decision. This paper identifies an optimal rule to map the credit-to-GDP gap adjusted to the guide to set the CCyB. We follow two alternative procedures. First, we apply the criteria suggested by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, (BCBS), obtaining 3 percentage points of the adjusted gap as the activation threshold and 8 percentage points as the maximum. Then we depart from the BCBS approach by proposing a procedure based on the maximization of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), which suggests 1 and 9 percentage points as the minimum and maximum thresholds, respectively. We also explore whether the CCyB, had it been in place, would have mitigated the repercussions of the Great Financial Crisis for the Italian banking system. Based on a stylized exercise, the full release of the CCyB at the outbreak of the crisis would have freed around 40 billion of capital, a value close to the total amount of banks' credit provisions during the three following years. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy, CCyB, buffer calibration, credit cycle |
| JEL: | E32 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_679_22&r= |
| By: | John Beirne (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yannis Dafermos (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Alexander Kriwoluzky (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)); Nuobu Renzhi (Capital University of Economics and Business); Ulrich Volz (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Jana Wittich (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on price stability in the euro area. We estimate panel and country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models by combining estimated damages of disaster events with monthly data for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for all euro area countries over the period 1996-2021. Besides estimating the effect on overall headline inflation, we examine effects on its 12 main sub-indices and further sub-categories of food price inflation. This allows us to disentangle differences in the direction and strength of price effects across consumption categories. Our results suggest significant positive effects of natural disasters on overall headline inflation, with diverging results at the sub-index level. Positive inflation effects are particularly pronounced for prices of food and beverages, while negative effects prevail for other sub-indices. Our country-specific results suggest heterogenous inflation effects of natural disasters across different countries. A key implication of our findings is that climate change is likely to make it increasingly difficult for the European Central bank to achieve its inflation target. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters; climate; inflation; monetary policy; European Central Bank |
| JEL: | E31 E52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:244&r= |
| By: | Olivier Armantier; Argia M. Sbordone; Giorgio Topa; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using “strategic surveys.” Namely, we measure households’ revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long-run inflation expectations. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was in question. We find that the risk of unanchoring of expectations was reasonably low in both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as in July 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | inflation; expectations; anchoring; strategic surveys |
| JEL: | D12 D84 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93774&r= |
| By: | António Afonso; Francisco Gomes Pereira |
| Abstract: | Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy on a micro panel at the bank and firm level, we study the transmission effectiveness of ECB’s large-scale asset purchasing programs programs (i.e. APP and PEPP) in the Euro area. Our findings show: first, balance sheet composition of banks is an important determinant of monetary policy transmission. We tested this hypothesis by showing that banks more exposed to government debt securities had higher loan growth than less exposed banks after the APP announcement. By extension, this could lead to heterogeneous economic impacts depending on the geographical location of exposed banks. For the PEPP, contrary to the APP, we did not find a portfolio-rebalancing channel for banks that were more exposed to government debt securities. Second, using balance sheet data on corporates, we verify that firms that borrowed more increased employment and fixed capital investment, albeit to a lesser degree than before the APP announcement. Furthermore, our sample shows that corporations in countries with banks more exposed to government debt securities had higher borrowing growth and fixed capital growth versus countries with less exposed banks. |
| Keywords: | unconventional monetary policy, difference-in-differences, euro area, employment, investment. |
| JEL: | C23 D22 E52 E58 G11 G20 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02182022&r= |
| By: | Manuel A. Pérez Álvarez (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | In August 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made a new allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) equivalent to $650 billion. This significant amount has tripled the total existing stock of SDRs. For Spain it involves an increase of 16% in foreign reserves, and an increase in receivables from the IMF, which amount to 22% of the reserves on the balance sheet of the Banco de España, as compared with 10% at present. The purpose of this expansion of SDRs is to support a group of countries that are having most difficulty fighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These countries have a greater need for foreign exchange to obtain basic supplies just when they are shut out of international capital markets. The new allocation is likely to boost SDR transactions given its large amount, the urgent need for funds in some countries and the experience of the 2009 allocation. This paper explains the characteristics of the use of SDRs as an effective source of liquidity, concluding that the way in which the issuance of this instrument is made effective is by means of transactions, allocation being the formal prerequisite for their existence. Accordingly, the key to their effectiveness will be the transactions actually carried out to obtain liquidity in international business. A liquidity ratio is proposed for monitoring their use. With regard to the magnitude of the allocation and, given that it is based on the quotas of each IMF member country, the developed countries have received the bulk of the allocation, as opposed to those countries having greater difficulty accessing the markets. Accordingly, measures will have to be taken to promote the passing on of SDRs so that their purpose can be achieved and they effectively supplement the reserves available within the framework of international trade. |
| Keywords: | SDRs, allocation, IMF, COVID-19, pandemic, liquidity, reserve assets, foreign exchange, voluntary trading arrangements, international cooperation |
| JEL: | F33 F42 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2201e&r= |
| By: | Roberto M. Billi; Jordi Galí; Anton Nakov |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, and in which the steady state natural rate (r*) is negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a steady state with positive average inflation. Around that steady state, inflation and output fluctuate optimally in response to shocks to the natural rate. The central bank can implement that optimal outcome by means of an appropriate state-contingent rule, even though in equilibrium the nominal rate remains at zero most (or all) of the time. In order to establish that result, we derive sufficient conditions for local determinacy in a more general model with endogenous regime switches. |
| Keywords: | zero lower bound, New Keynesian model, decline in r*, equilibrium determinacy, regime switching models, secular stagnation |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1830&r= |
| By: | Ignacio Sacristán López-Bravo; Carlos San Juan Mesonada |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of the fiscal-monetary policy mix on the convergence on per capita income of the least developed regions (Objective 1) of the European Union (EU 28) during the implementation of the three European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) programmes between 2000 and 2020. The Solow-Swan growth model with control variables allows us to assess the absorption capacity of regions in the different phases of the economic cycle. The empirical results show the effectiveness of EU Regional and Cohesion Policy. However, the combination of fiscal and monetary policy shows an impact that is asymmetric, depending on the region. Thus, a policy mix of fiscal restraint and monetary expansion would boost growth in all regions, but would slow down the convergence process in Objective 1 regions. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econwp:_73&r= |
| By: | Boris Hofmann; Dora Xia |
| Abstract: | We assess quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections along four key dimensions: (i) predictability, (ii) credibility, (iii) redundancy and (iv) consistency. Based on data for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Sveriges Riksbank and the Federal Reserve, we find that the interest rate projections released by these four central banks are predictable and credible, but in limited ways. Market expectations of the future path of interest rates predict changes in the central bank projection path, but far from fully. Central bank paths' credibility is limited as markets adjust to path surprises, but far from a one-to-one basis. Both predictability and credibility decrease with the projection horizon. We further find that central bank interest rate projections are not redundant as they impact market expectations also when controlling for the effects of central bank macro projections that are released in parallel. Finally, the interest rate projections are consistent with the macro projections as they are empirically linked by a stabilising Taylor rule. |
| Keywords: | forward guidance, interest rate projections, central bank communication. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1009&r= |
| By: | Rivera Moreno, Pablo Nebbi; Triana Montaño, Karol Lorena |
| Abstract: | Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) has been in the center of discussion of many monetary policy research agendas. We explore how the business cycle behavior of a developing economy is affected by the introduction of this type of money as a second monetary policy tool. We emphasize on the characteristic dual formal and informal labor markets that are present in most developing economies, given its relevance on explaining the business cycle dynamics. Our main contribution is the building of a model that encompasses such characteristics and features the relevance of monetary balances to macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that CBDC has the ability to improve the monetary policy effectiveness, and the response of relevant variables may be amplified or dampened, depending on the nature of the shock. Also the magnitude of the new dynamics introduced by CBDC are also profoundly dependant on its structural parameters. The main transmission mechanisms that are affected by CBDC are the dynamics of distortions generated by transaction costs. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:dynare:074&r= |