nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2020‒01‒27
23 papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-Universität Marburg

  1. Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve By Ales Bulir; Jan Vlcek
  2. The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness revisited: Corroborating evidence By Bossone, Biagio; Cuccia, Andrea
  3. The long-run information effect of central bank communication By Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; Tong, Matthew
  4. Money Creation in Fiat and Digital Currency Systems By Marco Gross; Christoph Siebenbrunner
  5. Monetary Policy, rational confidence, and Neo- Fisherian depressions By Lucio Gobbi; Ronny Mazzocchi; Roberto Tamborini
  6. International Reserves, Exchange Rate Differences and the CNB’s Financial Result By Igor Ljubaj
  7. Heterogeneous effects of unconventional monetary policy on bond yields across the euro area By Demir, Ishak; Eroglu, Burak A.; Yildirim-Karaman, Secil
  8. The ECB after the crisis: existing synergies among monetary policy, macroprudential policies and banking supervision By Nuno, Cassola; Christoffer, Kok; Francesco Paolo, Mongelli
  9. Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking: Trapped between a Rock and a Hard Place By Martin Hodula
  10. The case for reform of the RBA's policy and communication strategy By Bruce Preston
  11. Capital Account Policies in Emerging Asian Economies: Are They Effective in the 2000s? By Jongwanich, Juthathip
  12. New paradigms and old promises: central banks and the market for sovereign debt in the interwar period By Flores Zendejas, Juan; Lopez Soto, David; Sanchez Amador, David
  13. Sticky Prices and Costly Credit By Liang Wang; Randall Wright; Lucy Qian Liu
  14. A cointegration model of money and wealth By Assenmacher, Katrin; Beyer, Andreas
  15. The impact of the ECB’s targeted long-term refinancing operations on banks’ lending policies: the role of competition By C. Andreeva, Desislava; García-Posada, Miguel
  16. Should Monetary Policy Target Financial Stability? By William Chen; Gregory Phelan
  17. The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy By Òscar Jordà; Sanjay R. Singh; Alan M. Taylor
  18. Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: a local projection approach By Rubene, Ieva; Colavecchio, Roberta
  19. The Euro at 20 : a critical assessment By Christophe Blot; Jérôme Creel; Xavier Ragot
  20. An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI) By Samba Diop; Simplice A. Asongu
  21. Don't End or Audit the Fed: Central Bank Independence in an Age of Austerity By Buchanan, Neil H.; Dorf, Michael C.; Library, Cornell
  22. Financial Shocks and Exchange Market Pressure By Patnaik , Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
  23. Macroprudential Policy in Asian Economies By Kim, Soyoung

  1. By: Ales Bulir; Jan Vlcek
    Abstract: Does monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries - operating under various monetary regimes - we find that monetary policy decisions, as expressed in yield curve movements, do react to macroeconomic innovations and these reactions reflect the monetary policy regime. While we find evidence of the primacy of the price stability objective in the inflation-targeting countries, the links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less systematic in money-targeting and multiple-objective countries.
    Keywords: Monetary transmission, yield curve
    JEL: E43 E52 G12
    Date: 2019–09
  2. By: Bossone, Biagio; Cuccia, Andrea
    Abstract: This study revisits and tests empirically the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), which analyzes how the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and globally financially integrated economies is influenced by global investor decisions (Bossone, The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness, 2019). The PTI shows that when an economy is heavily indebted and is perceived by the market to be poorly credible, investors hold it to a tighter intertemporal budget constraint and policies aimed to stimulate output growth dissipate into domestic currency depreciation and higher inflation, with limited or no impact on output, or with lower output and lower inflation. On the other hand, markets afford highly credible economies much greater space for effective and noninflationary macro policies. The study leads to a very basic advice: policymakers of an internationally highly integrated economy should keep public liabilities (the stock of both central bank money and public debt) at low levels: the larger the liabilities, the higher the degree of surrender of the country's national policy sovereignty to external forces and interests.
    Keywords: credibility,exchange rate,financial integration,fiscal and monetary policies,global investor(s),inflation,intertemporal budget constraint,policy effectiveness,public debt
    JEL: E31 E4 E5 E62 F31 G15 H3
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; Tong, Matthew
    Abstract: Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty. JEL Classification: E52, E58, C55
    Keywords: communication, machine learning, monetary policy
    Date: 2020–01
  4. By: Marco Gross; Christoph Siebenbrunner
    Abstract: To support the understanding that banks’ debt issuance means money creation, while centralized nonbank financial institutions’ and decentralized bond market intermediary lending does not, the paper aims to convey two related points: First, the notion of money creation as a result of banks’ loan creation is compatible with the notion of liquid funding needs in a multi-bank system, in which liquid fund (reserve) transfers across banks happen naturally. Second, interest rate-based monetary policy has a bearing on macroeconomic dynamics precisely due to that multi-bank structure. It would lose its impact in the hypothetical case that only one (“singular”) commercial bank would exist. We link our discussion to the emergence and design of central bank digital currencies (CBDC), with a special focus on how loans would be granted in a CBDC world.
    Date: 2019–12–20
  5. By: Lucio Gobbi; Ronny Mazzocchi; Roberto Tamborini
    Abstract: We examine the so-called "Neo-Fisherian" claim that, at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the monetary policy interest rate, and the economy in a depression equilibrium, in order to restore the desired inflation rate the policy rate should be raised consistently with the Fisher equation. This claim has been questioned on the ground that the Fisher equation cannot be used mechanically to peg the long-run inflation expectations. It is necessary to examine how inflation expectations are formed in response to, and interact with, policy actions and the evolution of the economy. Hence we study a New Keynesian economy where agents' inflation expectations are based on their correct understanding of the data generations process, and on their probabilistic confidence in the central bank's ability to keep inflation on target, driven by the observed state of the economy. We find that the Neo-Fisherian claim is a theoretical possibility depending on the interplay of a set of parameters and very low levels of agents' confidence. Yet, on the basis of simulations of the model, we may say that this possibility is remote for most commonly found empirical values of the relevant parameters. Moreover, the Neo-Fisherian policy-rate peg is not sustained by the expectations formation process.
    Keywords: conventional monetary policy, Neo-Fisherian theory, formation of inflation expectations, monetary policy at the zero lower bound
    JEL: D84 E31 E52
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Igor Ljubaj (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)
    Abstract: IntInternational reserves are liquid foreign assets readily available to the central bank for mitigating the effects of possible balance of payments imbalances. When monetary policy is based on maintaining the stability of the domestic currency, as it is the case of the Croatian National Bank (CNB), the role of international reserves is even larger; international reserves as foreign exchange assets usually account for most of the central bank’s assets, while liabilities are denominated in the domestic currency, so that a currency mismatch between the assets and the liabilities tends to arise. Any change in the exchange rate of the domestic currency against world reserve currencies will lead to the calculation of unrealised exchange rate differences. This also was why in 2017 and 2018 the CNB recorded the first negative result since 2003. In 2017, it was mostly due to the strengthening of the euro against the dollar in the global foreign exchange market, while in 2018, it was due to the strengthening of the kuna against the euro. As a result of both circumstances, international reserves in kuna terms were reduced, while, excluding the exchange rate differences, the CNB's revenues exceeded expenditures, as they had in all the previous years. The large amount of exchange rate differences was also a consequence of the considerable increase of international reserves in the recent period, exchange rate differences thus being much larger for the same change in the exchange rate. Some central banks, indeed, lost their entire capital because of the large foreign exchange losses. The CNB’s capital was never in jeopardy, because losses were easily covered from general reserves created in the previous years. For the CNB, accession to the euro area will require the application of ECB accounting guidelines, which are more appropriate for the central bank’s operation. Then, because of a different accounting treatment, exchange rate differences will no longer impact the financial result in the same way as it does today. This will increase the stability and predictability of the financial result, as well as the probability of the allocation of profits to the state budget.
    Keywords: international reserves, CNB, financial result, exchange rate differences, financial independence
    JEL: E58 E59 N20
    Date: 2020–01
  7. By: Demir, Ishak; Eroglu, Burak A.; Yildirim-Karaman, Secil
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of European Central Bank's unconventional monetary policies between 2008-2016 on the government bond yields of eight European Monetary Union countries and up to eleven different maturities. In identifying this impact, it adopts a novel econometric approach that combines data-rich dynamic factor analysis and VAR with heteroskadasiticy based identification. This novel approach allows a single model to estimate the impact of a common unconventional monetary policy shock across different countries, maturities, yield components and over time. The results identify a significant and substantial impact for all countries and all maturities in the sample. The evidence also suggests that the impact was stronger and persistent in the periphery countries which have higher financial distress, uncertainty, country risk and lower liquidity. When we decompose the impact into separate yield components, we find that unconventional shocks decreased the common market component of the yields in all countries. As for the risk component, unconventional policies decreased it for the periphery countries permanently at the cost of a small increase in the core countries, as consistent with the international portfolio balance channel. These findings contribute to the literature by providing a comprehensive characterization of the impact of unconventional monetary policies for different economic environments.
    Keywords: Unconventional monetary policy,ECB,QE,international monetary transmission,portfolio balance,cross-country difference,yield curves,risk premia
    JEL: C38 E43 E52 E58 F42 G12
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Nuno, Cassola; Christoffer, Kok; Francesco Paolo, Mongelli
    Abstract: The prolonged crisis exposed the vulnerability of a monetary union without a banking union. The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), which started operating in November 2014, is an essential step towards restoring banks to health and rebuilding trust in the banking system. The ECB is today responsible for setting a single monetary policy applicable throughout the euro area and for supervising all euro area banks in order to ensure their safety and soundness, some directly and some indirectly. Its role in the area of financial stability has also expanded through the conferral of macroprudential tasks and tools that include tightening national measures when necessary. It thus carries out these complementary functions, while its primary objective of pursuing price stability remains unchanged. What are the working arrangements of this enlarged ECB, and what are the similarities and existing synergies among these functions? In the following pages, focusing on the organisational implications of the “new†ECB, we show the relative degrees of centralisation and decentralisation that exist in discharging these functions, the cycles of policy preparation and the rules governing interaction between them.
    Keywords: European Central Bank, monetary policy, banking union, banking supervision, financial stability, systemic risks, macroprudential policies, decision-making process
    JEL: E42 E58 F36 G21
    Date: 2019–12
  9. By: Martin Hodula
    Abstract: In this paper, I collect data on the euro area shadow banking system and demonstrate that tightening of monetary policy conditions in the run-up to the global financial crisis successfully reduced the growth of traditional banking but strengthened the growth of shadow banking due to a general escape from high funding costs. After the crisis, when interest rates were depressed to all-time lows, the empirical link between monetary policy and traditional banking was significantly weakened, while the relationship with shadow banking turned from positive to negative, i.e., the post-crisis monetary easing is found to have caused massive inflows into investment funds as a result of search for yield induced by persistently low interest rates.
    Keywords: Interactions, monetary policy, shadow banking, traditional banking
    JEL: E52 G21 G23
    Date: 2019–12
  10. By: Bruce Preston
    Abstract: At any time, the public should be able to evaluate whether the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decisions are consistent with achieving statutory mandates. The current policy and communication strategy makes this difficult. The mandates, as interpreted by the RBA, fail to provide a clearly identifiable performance benchmark. And the supporting communication strategy falls short of a commitment to explain the economic basis of why and how interest-rate decisions achieve mandated objectives. Examples of both concerns are given from various public documents. Basic reforms would improve the accountability and effectiveness of monetary policy.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, central bank communication, transparency, accountability
    JEL: E32 D83 D84
    Date: 2020–01
  11. By: Jongwanich, Juthathip (Thammasat University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policy in terms of its ability to affect the volume and composition of capital flows, relieve pressures on real exchange rates, and foster monetary policy independence. Ten emerging Asian economies are used as case studies to assess the effectiveness of capital account policy during 2000–2015. The results suggest that some types of capital controls are effective in reducing the volume of capital flows and pressure on real exchange rates. The choice of exchange rate regime matters in terms of the effectiveness of capital controls for fostering monetary policy independence. Although some types of capital controls are effective in creating macroeconomic stability, implementing capital account policy needs to be undertaken with caution. This is because substitution or complementarity among capital controls is evident, both within and across countries in the region. It seems that strong economic fundamentals are more important than capital account policy for changing the composition of capital inflows toward more stable and long-term flows.
    Keywords: capital flows; capital restrictions; emerging Asia
    JEL: F31 F32 O53
    Date: 2019–04–26
  12. By: Flores Zendejas, Juan; Lopez Soto, David; Sanchez Amador, David
    Abstract: This paper analyses the motives behind the establishment of central banks during the interwar period. We argue that most governments with difficulties in accessing financial markets established central banks, as this was a general recommendation provided by contemporary money doctors. However, even if central banks served to facilitate the issue of foreign loans on the New York financial market, we find that governments with central banks did not obtain more favorable terms for those loans. Our analysis further demonstrates that investors concentrated on macroeconomic achievements such as inflation and monetary stability, and whether a lender-of-last resort facility existed, regardless of whether or not this was pursued by a central bank.
    Keywords: Money doctors, Central banking, Great depression, Sovereign debt
    JEL: N00 N1 N20 E50 H63
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Liang Wang (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Randall Wright (University of Wisconsin - Madison, Zhejiang University, and FRB Minneapolis); Lucy Qian Liu (International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: We develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments, then put it to work in applications. Agents use cash and credit because the former (latter) is subject to the inflation tax (transaction costs). Frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion. We derive closed- form solutions for money demand, and show how to simultaneously account for the price-change facts, cash-credit shares in micro data, and money-interest correlations in macro data. The effects of inflation on welfare, price dispersion and markups are discussed, as are nonstationary equilibria with dynamics in the price distribution.
    Keywords: Money, Credit, Inflation, Price Dispersion, Sticky Prices
    JEL: E31 E42 E51 E52
    Date: 2020–01
  14. By: Assenmacher, Katrin; Beyer, Andreas
    Abstract: Extending the data set used in Beyer (2009) from 2007 to 2017, we estimate I(1) and I(2) money demand models for euro area M3. We find that the elasticities in the money demand and the real wealth relations identified previously in Beyer (2009) have remained remarkably stable throughout the extended sample period, once only a few additional deterministic variables in the long run relationships for the period after the start of the global financial crisis and the ECB’s non- standard monetary policy measures are included. Testing for price homogeneity in the I(2) model we find that the nominal-to-real transformation is not rejected for the money relation whereas the wealth relation cannot be expressed in real terms. JEL Classification: E41, C32, C22
    Keywords: cointegration, I(2) analysis, money demand, vector error correction model, wealth
    Date: 2020–01
  15. By: C. Andreeva, Desislava; García-Posada, Miguel
    Abstract: We assess the impact of the Eurosystem’s Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) on the lending policies of euro area banks. We first build a theoretical model in which banks compete in the credit and deposit markets. We distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Direct effects take place because bidding banks expand their loan supply due to the lower marginal costs implied by the TLTROs. Indirect effects on non-bidders operate via changes in the competitive environment in banks’ credit and deposit markets. We then test these predictions with a sample of 130 banks from 13 countries focusing on the first TLTRO series. Regarding direct effects, we find an easing impact on margins on loans to relatively safe borrowers, but no impact on credit standards. Regarding indirect effects, there is a positive impact on the loan supply on non-bidders which operates via an easing of credit standards. JEL Classification: G21, E52, E58
    Keywords: competition, lending policies, TLTROs, unconventional monetary policy
    Date: 2020–01
  16. By: William Chen (Williams College); Gregory Phelan (Williams College)
    Abstract: We theoretically investigate the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on aggregate stability. In the model, banks borrow using deposits and invest in productive projects, and monetary policy affects risk-premia. Because banks do not actively issue equity, aggregate outcomes depend on the level of equity in the financial sector and equilibrium is inefficient. Monetary policy can improve household welfare by affecting banks’ leverage decisions and the rate of bank equity growth. A Fed Put is ex-ante stabilizing, decreasing volatility and the likelihood of crises; it does not lead to excessive leverage in good times but enables higher leverage in bad times.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, Leaning against the wind, Financial stability, Macroeconomic instability, Banks, Liquidity.
    JEL: E44 E52 E58 G01 G12 G20 G21
    Date: 2020–01–03
  17. By: Òscar Jordà; Sanjay R. Singh; Alan M. Taylor (University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia; Harvard University; University of California Berkeley; Morgan Stanley; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); ebrary Inc; Northwestern University)
    Abstract: Is the effect of monetary policy on the productive capacity of the economy long lived? Yes, in fact we find such impacts are significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) merged data from two new international historical databases; (2) identification of exogenous monetary policy using the macroeconomic trilemma; and (3) improved econometric methods. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit hysteresis, but labor does not. Money is non-neutral for a much longer period of time than is customarily assumed. A New Keynesian model with endogenous TFP growth can reconcile all these empirical observations.
    Keywords: monetary policy; money neutrality; hysteresis; trilemma; instrumental variables; local projections
    JEL: E01 E30 E32 E44 E47 E51 F33 F42 F44
    Date: 2020–01–16
  18. By: Rubene, Ieva; Colavecchio, Roberta
    Abstract: How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates? Do relatively large exchange rate changes entail more exchange rate pass-through? In this paper, we examine possible non-linearities in the transmission of exchange rate movements to import and consumer prices in all 19 euro area countries as well as the euro area as a whole from 1997 to 2019Q1. We extend a standard single-equation linear framework with additional interaction terms to account for possible non-linearities and apply local projections to obtain state-dependent impulse response functions. We find that (i) euro area consumer and import prices respond significantly to exchange rate movements after one year, responding more when the exchange rate change is relatively large; and (ii) euro appreciations and depreciations affect the level of euro area exchange rate pass-through in a symmetric fashion; (iii) for euro area countries results differ for import and consumer prices and across countries. JEL Classification: E31, F41
    Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, inflation, local projections, non-linearities
    Date: 2020–01
  19. By: Christophe Blot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Jérôme Creel (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Xavier Ragot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Eurozone monetary governance was framed for a stable macroeconomic environment. While the ECB policy framework changed much after the global financial crisis, this did not prevent important nominal divergences. These ones prove the importance of non-monetary factors affecting relative nominal prices, such as fiscal policy and labor market institutions. New tools are necessary to limit these nominal divergences, otherwise real divergence will continue to weaken the euro. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study improves the African Regional Integration Index (ARII) proposed by the African Union, the African Development Bank and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa by providing a theoretical framework and addressing shortcomings related to weighting and aggregation of the indicator. This paper measures monetary integration in the eight African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) by constructing an Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI). It proposes an Optimal Currency Area as theoretical framework and uses a panel approach to appreciate the dynamics of the index over different periods of time. The findings show that: (i) inflation and finance (trade and mobility) present the highest (lowest) score while ECOWAS is (EAC and IGAD are) the highest (least) performing. (ii) Surprisingly, in most RECs, the highest contributors to wealth creation are not the top performers in regional monetary integration. (iii) The RECs in Africa are characterized by a stable monetary integration which is different from the gradual process usually observed in monetary integration because with the exception of the EAC and UMA, the dynamics of IAMI show a steady trend in the overall index across time. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Monetary Integration; Currency Unions; Economic Communities; Africa
    JEL: E10 E50 O10 O55 P50
    Date: 2020–01
  21. By: Buchanan, Neil H.; Dorf, Michael C.; Library, Cornell
    Abstract: 102 Cornell Law Review (2016) The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the central bank of the United States. Because of its power and importance in guiding the economy, the Fed's independence from direct political influence has made it a target of ideologically motivated attacks throughout its history, with an especially aggressive round of attacks coming in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and ongoing today. We defend Fed independence. We point to the Fed's exemplary performance during and after the 2008 crisis, and we offer the example of a potential future crisis in which Congress falls to increase the debt ceiling to show how the Fed's independence makes it the only entity that can minimize the damage during crises (both market-driven and policy-induced). We further argue that the Fed's independence is justified to prevent self-dealing by politicians, even when no crisis is imminent. Although the classic justification for Fed independence focuses on the risk that political actors will keep interest rates lower than appropriate for the long-term health of the economy, we show that Fed independence addresses the risk of self-dealing and other pathologies even when, as now, political actors favor tighter monetary policy than appropriate for the long-term health of the economy.
    Date: 2018–01–09
  22. By: Patnaik , Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Pundit, Madhavi (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The taper tantrum episode induced a sudden outflow of capital from emerging markets back to the United States. This paper analyzes exchange market pressure in 93 developing and emerging market economies during this episode, drawing on recent methodological improvements in measuring exchange market pressure. We find that all economies in the sample that were integrated with global capital markets were heavily hit. Although popular discourse suggested that the extent of an economy’s fragility depended on its macroeconomic fundamentals, we find these fundamentals did not have much of a role in determining the level of pressure on a currency.
    Keywords: capital flows; exchange market pressure; financial shock; international trade and finance; macroeconomics; taper tantrum
    JEL: E52 F31 F32
    Date: 2019–05–15
  23. By: Kim, Soyoung (Seoul National University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the conduct and effects of macroprudential policy in 11 Asian economies. Of these, India, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea frequently used loan-to-value ratios and required reserve ratios even before the global financial crisis. India and the People’s Republic of China are the most frequent users of macroprudential policy tools. Since 2000, tightening actions have been more frequent than loosening in the 11 economies. Most took tightening actions more frequently after the global financial crisis than before it. In most of these economies, macroprudential policy tends to be tightened when credit expands. The main empirical results from the analysis, which uses panel vector autoregression models, are that contractionary macroprudential policy has significant negative effects on credit and output; and that these effects are qualitatively similar to those of monetary policy. This suggests that policy authorities may experience potential policy conflicts when credit conditions are excessive and the economy is in recession.
    Keywords: credit; macroprudential policy; monetary policy; output; vector autoregression
    JEL: E58 E60 G28
    Date: 2019–04–16

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