nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2018‒04‒16
thirty-two papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-Universität Marburg

  1. Exchange rate misalignment, capital flows, and optimal monetary policy trade-offs By Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain
  2. Credibility and Monetary Policy By Mengus, Eric; Barthelemy, Jean
  3. Disinflation and improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations - The Icelandic experience By Thórarinn G. Pétursson
  4. One money, many markets: a factor model approach to monetary policy in the Euro Area with high-frequency identification By Corsetti, Giancarlo; Duarte, Joao B.; Mann, Samuel
  5. The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Learning-Approach Perspective By Yoshihiko Hogen; Ryoichi Okuma
  6. The international transmission of monetary policy By Buch, Claudia M.; Bussiere, Matthieu; Goldberg, Linda S.; Hills, Robert
  7. Monetary policy and cross-border interbank market fragmentation: lessons from the crisis By Blattner, Tobias Sebastian; Swarbrick, Jonathan M.
  8. Monetary Policy obeying the Taylor Principle Turns Prices into Strategic Substitutes By Camille Cornand; Frank Heinemann
  9. Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union By Alla Myrvoda; Julien Reynaud
  10. Inflation persistence in BRICS countries: A quantile autoregressive (QAR) approach By Andrew Phiri
  11. On the Persistence of UK Inflation: A Long-Range Dependence Approach By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Tommaso Trani
  12. QE in the future: the central bank’s balance sheet in a fiscal crisis By Reis, Ricardo
  13. Expectations' Dispersion & Convergence towards Central Banks' IR forecasts: Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru & United Kingdom, 2004-2014 By Barrera Chaupis, Carlos
  14. The ECB's fight against low inflation : On the effects of ultra-low interest rates By van Riet, Ad
  15. Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule By Olaf Posch
  16. Monetary policy coordination leader followership By Raputsoane, Leroi
  17. Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and the Euro Area By Carolina Osorio; Esteban Vesperoni
  18. A Decade After Lehman: Taking Stock of Quantitative Easing and Regulation By Ramaswamy, R.
  19. How does monetary policy affect income inequality in Japan? Evidence from grouped data By Feldkircher, Martin; Kakamu, Kazuhiko
  20. Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence appraoch By Andrew Phiri
  21. Monetary policy with non-homothetic preferences By Cavallari, Lilia
  22. Could this be a fiction? Bitcoin forecasts most tradable currency pairs better than ARFIMA By Afees A. Salisu; Lateef O. Akanni; Rasheed O. Azeez
  24. A Quantitative Easing Experiment By Adrian Penalver; Nobuyuki Hanaki; Eizo Akiyama; Yukihiko Funaki; Ryuichiro Ishikawa
  25. The Effective Lower Bound for the Policy Rate in Euroized Economies—An Application to the Case of Albania By Guido della Valle; Erald Themeli; Romain M Veyrune; Ezequiel Cabezon; Shaoyu Guo
  26. Deflation forces and inequality By Rod Tyers; Yixiao Zhou
  27. Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates By Hai-Chuan Xu; Wei-Xing Zhou; Didier Sornette
  28. A well-timed raise in inflation targets By Javier G. Gómez-Pineda
  29. Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area By Helge Berger; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Maurice Obstfeld
  30. Exchange Rate Policy and External Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal, Real or Mixed Targeting? By Fadia Al Hajj; Gilles Dufrenot; Benjamin Keddad
  31. On real interest rates, tariff policy, exchange rates and the ZLB By Sweder van Wijnbergen
  32. Monetary Policy Communication of the Bank of Japan: Computational Text Analysis By Yusuke Oshima; Yoichi Matsubayashi

  1. By: Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain
    Abstract: What determines the optimal monetary trade-o§ between internal objectives (inflation, and output gap) and external objectives (competitiveness and trade imbalances) when inefficient capital flows cause exchange rate misalignment and distort current account positions? We characterize this trade-o§ analytically, using the workhorse model of modern monetary theory in open economies under incomplete markets–where inefficient capital flows and exchange rate misalignments can arise independently of nominal distortions. We derive a quadratic approximation of the utility-based global policy loss function under fairly general assumptions on preferences and openness, and solve for the optimal targeting rules under cooperation. We show that, in economies with a low degree of exchange rate pass-through, the optimal response to inefficient capital inflows associated with real appreciation is contractionary, above and beyond the natural rate: the optimal policy curbs excessive demand at the cost of exacerbating currency overvaluation. In contrast, a high degree of pass-through, and/or low trade elasticities, warrants expansionary policies that lean against exchange rate appreciation and competitive losses, at the cost of inefficient inflation.
    Keywords: currency misalignments; trade imbalances; asset markets and risk sharing; optimal targeting rules; international policy cooperation; exchange rate pass-through
    JEL: E44 E52 E61 F41 F42
    Date: 2018–03
  2. By: Mengus, Eric; Barthelemy, Jean
    Abstract: This paper revisits the ability of central banks to manage private sector's expectations depending on its credibility and how this affects the use of interest rate rules and pegs to achieve monetary policy objectives. When private agents can only provide limited incentives for the central bank to follow a policy, we show that resulting limited credibility allows a central bank to prevents the inflation from diverging by defaulting on past promises if necessary. As a result, the Taylor rule, when expected, anchors inflation expectations on a unique equilibrium path as long as the Taylor principle is satisfied. Finally, we also show that limited credibility restricts the impact of long-term interest rate pegs, so as to make current conditions less dependent on future policy changes.
    Keywords: Taylor principle; Credibility; Forward Guidance
    JEL: E31 E52 E65
    Date: 2017–05–01
  3. By: Thórarinn G. Pétursson
    Abstract: After rising sharply following the Global Financial Crisis, inflation in Iceland has been low and stable in recent years despite a strong cyclical recovery. This not only reflects good luck – stemming from low global inflation, declining commodity prices, and a currency appreciation – but also a significant improvement in monetary policy credibility as reflected in a large decline in long-term inflation expectations. To quantify these effects, a forward-looking, open-economy Phillips curve is estimated for the inflation-targeting period since 2001. The empirical results suggest a structural shift in the average relation between inflation and its key drivers occurring around 2012. It is argued that this reflects the convergence of long-term inflation expectations of households and firms towards the downward trending inflation expectations in financial markets. Long-term inflation expectations of households and firms are not observed, but using a Markov switching model and a time-varying parameter model suggests that this unobserved component of long-term inflation expectations has declined from an average of about 2 percentage points in 2003-2011 to zero in late 2016. Together with the large decline in imported inflation, the improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations goes a long way towards explaining the large disinflation of the last five years and the low recent inflation despite the strong pickup in economic activity. It also seems that an important part of the persistent over-prediction of inflation in Iceland by most forecasters in recent years can be explained by the failure to take the gradual improvement in monetary policy credibility since 2012 into account. Finally, this combination of imported deflation and a firmer anchoring of inflation expectations can explain why the post-2012 disinflation episode did not coincide with any loss of output.
    Date: 2018–03
  4. By: Corsetti, Giancarlo; Duarte, Joao B.; Mann, Samuel
    Abstract: We reconsider the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions.
    Keywords: monetary policy; high-frequency identification; monetary union; labour market; housing market
    JEL: E21 E44 E52
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Yoshihiko Hogen (Bank of Japan); Ryoichi Okuma (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: This paper employs a model of learning about long-term inflation to jointly estimate long-term inflation expectations and the degree to which they have been anchored to the 2 percent inflation mark over the last half century in Japan. The estimated model shows that long-term inflation expectations declined to about 2 percent in the late 1980s and remained anchored to the 2 percent mark until the mid-1990s. They fell below 2 percent in the late 1990s, which resulted in a low degree of anchoring until the early 2010s. Following the introduction of the price stability target of 2 percent and the launch of Qualitative and Quantitative Monetary Easing in early 2013, inflation expectations rose until early 2015, but have not yet been anchored to the target. A further VAR analysis demonstrates that markups in domestic goods and services markets are one important reason why expectations have not been anchored at 2 percent since the late 1990s.
    Keywords: Inflation expectations; Anchoring; Learning
    JEL: D83 D84 E31 E58
    Date: 2018–04–06
  6. By: Buch, Claudia M. (Deutsche Bundesbank); Bussiere, Matthieu (Banque de France); Goldberg, Linda S. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Hills, Robert (Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private sector do occur, especially for U.S. policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the international bank lending channel and the portfolio channel of monetary policy transmission. They also show that the frictions that banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries. International spillovers into lending can be large for some banks, even while the average international spillovers of policies into nonbank lending generally are not large.
    Keywords: monetary policy; international spillovers; cross-border transmission; global bank; global financial cycle
    JEL: E52 F3 F4 G15 G21
    Date: 2018–03–01
  7. By: Blattner, Tobias Sebastian; Swarbrick, Jonathan M.
    Abstract: We present a two-country model with an enhanced banking sector featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions. We find that (i) the strength of the financial accelerator, when applied to banks operating under uncertainty in an interbank market, will critically depend on the economic and financial structure of the economy; (ii) adverse shocks to the real economy can be the source of banking crisis, causing an increase in interbank funding costs, aggravating the initial shock; and (iii) central bank asset purchases and long-term refinancing operations can be effective substitutes for, or supplements to, conventional monetary policy. JEL Classification: E44, E52, F32, F36
    Keywords: cross-border capital flows, financial frictions, interbank market, monetary union, unconventional monetary policy
    Date: 2018–04
  8. By: Camille Cornand (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-69131 Ecully, France); Frank Heinemann (Technische Universitaet Berlin, Chair of Macroeconomics, H 52 - Strasse des 17. Juni 135 - 10 623 Berlin, Germany)
    Abstract: Monetary policy affects the degree of strategic complementarity in firms’ pricing decisions if it responds to the aggregate price level. In normal times, when monopolistic competitive firms increase their prices, the central bank raises interest rates, which lowers consumption demand and creates an incentive for firms to reduce their prices. Thereby, monetary policy reduces the degree of strategic complementarities among firms’ pricing decisions and even turns prices into strategic substitutes if the effect of interest rates on demand is sufficiently strong. We show that this condition holds when monetary policy follows the Taylor principle. By contrast, in a liquidity trap where monetary policy is restricted by the zero lower bound, pricing decisions are strategic complements. Our main contribution consists in relating the determinacy and stability of equilibria to strategic substitutability in prices. We discuss the consequences for dynamic adjustment processes and some policy implications.
    Keywords: monopolistic competition, monetary policy rule, pricing decisions, strategic complementarity, strategic substitutability
    JEL: E52 C72
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Alla Myrvoda; Julien Reynaud
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.
    Date: 2018–03–29
  10. By: Andrew Phiri (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)
    Abstract: Using the recently-introduced quantile autoregression methodology (QAR), this study contributes to the ever-expanding empirical literature by investigating the persistence in inflation for BRICS countries using quarterly time series data collected between 1996 to 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals two crucial findings. Firstly, for all estimated regressions, inflation persistence in the higher percentiles of the QAR regression exhibits unit root tendencies. Secondly, we note that the global financial crisis did alter the levels of inflation persistence at all quantiles for all BRICS countries. Collectively, we advise monetary authorities in BRICS countries to focus on keeping inflation at low and stable rates.
    Keywords: BRICS, Emerging economies, Inflation persistence, Quantile regression.
    JEL: C21 E31
    Date: 2017–07
  11. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Tommaso Trani
    Abstract: This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that span the period from 1660 to 2016. Specifically, we use both parametric and non-parametric fractional integration techniques, that are more general than those based on the classical I(0) vs. I(1) dichotomy. Further, we carry out break tests to detect any shifts in the degree of persistence, and also run rolling-window and recursive regressions to investigate its evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively stable following the Bretton Woods period, despite the adoption of different monetary regimes. The estimation of an unobserved-components stochastic volatility model sheds further light on the issues of interest by showing that post-Bretton Woods changes in UK inflation are attributable to a fall in the volatility of permanent shocks.
    Keywords: UK inflation, persistence, fractional integration
    JEL: C14 C22 E31
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Reis, Ricardo
    Abstract: Analyses of quantitative easing (QE) typically focus on the recent past studying the policy’s effectiveness during a financial crisis when nominal interest rates are zero. This paper examines instead the usefulness of QE in a future fiscal crisis, modeled as a situation where the fiscal outlook is inconsistent with both stable inflation and no sovereign default. The crisis can lower welfare through two channels, the first via aggregate demand and nominal rigidities, and the second via contractions in credit and disruption in financial markets. Managing the size and composition of the central bank’s balance sheet can interfere with each of these channels, stabilizing inflation and economic activity. The power of QE comes from interest-paying reserves being a special public liability, neither substitutable by currency nor by government debt.
    JEL: E44 E58 E63
    Date: 2017–04
  13. By: Barrera Chaupis, Carlos
    Abstract: The study evaluates the effect of both the publication of Inflation Report (IR)’s forecasts and the subsequent media diffusion efforts (made by 5 central banks) on (i) the dispersion of ‘fixed-event’ forecasts for inflation and real growth produced by the macroeconomic insiders of a country (and gathered by Consensus Economics, Inc.), as well as (ii) the distance between their median and the aforementioned official forecasts. The 5 central banks correspond to the monetary authorities in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and United Kingdom. Statistically testing the effects on the dispersion and distance uses a common sample of monthly forecasts from 2004 to 2014 and reach high specificity by using separate samples according to the forecasting horizon (short and medium ‘term’) and the macroeconomic uncertainty level (IR publication months are classified as either high- or low-uncertainty months). With a significance level of 10 per cent, the general results are that (a) increases and decreases in the dispersion can be attributed to either IR forecast publication or media diffusion; and (b) increases and decreases in the distance can be attributed to either IR forecast publication or media diffusion, although the number of increases in the distance is low relative to (a). Comment from the author: It would be interesting to add results for more countries. Specifically, I was planning to add Canada and New Zealand. However, in the case of New Zealand, the corresponding series from Consensus Economics, Inc. is actually not available near Peru for the whole sample (the nearest one is actually located at the British Library!). There exists a critique addressing the econometric approach: it is related to the idea of causality and the need to use the difference-in-difference approach (this implies the need to include data from non-inflation-targeting countries). I am totally satisfied with the paper, though. In a nutshell, I consider more important to address the issue as if I were a medicine doctor wondering about whether the temperature is normal, high or low for the specific cases of 5 individuals instead of digressing about what is "normal temperature" for (say) 40 individuals.
    Keywords: central bank, forecasting, coordination
    JEL: E37 E47 E58 G14
    Date: 2016–07–27
  14. By: van Riet, Ad (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Abstract: Starting in June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped up its monetary accommodation in order to counter a too prolonged period of low inflation in the euro area. This article offers a narrative of the monetary policy measures taken up to December 2016 and a review of the effects of ultra-low interest rates. The exceptional monetary stimulus transmitted to the economy broadly as intended. Moreover, it enhanced the financial capacity of economic agents to bear risks. At the same time, the ECB and the European micro- and macro-prudential authorities remained watchful of the unintended side-effects of an extended period of very low or negative interest rates for financial intermediation, financial stability and market discipline and took preventive or corrective measures as appropriate. A joint plan of action carried out by the 19 member countries with the aim to speed up balance sheet repair, accelerate the economic recovery and achieve higher productivity growth could have contributed to a more effective euro area macroeconomic and financial policy mix.
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Olaf Posch
    Abstract: This paper explores the ability of the New-Keynesian (NK) model to explain the recent periods of quiet and stable inflation at near-zero nominal interest rates. We show how (conventional and unconventional) monetary policy shocks enlarge the ability to explain the facts, such that the theory supports both a negative and a positive response of inflation. Central to our finding is that monetary policy shocks may have temporary and/or permanent components. We find that the NK model can explain the recent episodes, even if one considers an active role of monetary policy and restrict ourselves to the regions of (local) determinacy. We also show that a new global solution, capturing highly nonlinear dynamics, is necessary to generate a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates as a policy choice.
    Keywords: continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models, Calvo price setting
    JEL: E32 E12 C61
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Raputsoane, Leroi
    Abstract: This paper analyses the leader followership phenomenon in monetary policy coordination in South Africa, the Advanced, Developed and Emerging counties. The coordination of monetary policy in Advanced counties is examined in individual countries while such coordination in Developed and Emerging countries is examined in groups of countries. These countries comprise South Africa, United States, Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan while the groups of countries comprise the Developed, BRIC, Eastern Europe, East Asia and Latin American countries. The results show that monetary policy coordination is led by the United States and Developed countries, that monetary policy coordination in United Kingdom, Eastern European countries and the Euro area is intermediate while South Africa and Latin America are followers in monetary policy coordination. The results further show that Japan, BRIC and Eastern Europe coordinate monetary policy independent of the rest of the selected countries.
    Keywords: Central bank, Monetary policy, Causal Inference
    JEL: C11 C70 E43 E58
    Date: 2018–04–03
  17. By: Carolina Osorio; Esteban Vesperoni
    Abstract: This report analyzes the possible spillover effects that could result if the U.S. normalizes its monetary policy while euro area countries are increasing monetary stimulus (a situation referred to as asynchronous monetary conditions). This analysis identifies country-specific shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions since the early 1990s, finding that real and monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area have oftentimes been asynchronous and have often resulted in significant spillover effects, particularly since early 2014.
    Keywords: Monetary policy;Spillovers;Western Hemisphere;United States;Negative spillovers;Positive spillovers;
    Date: 2016–09–27
  18. By: Ramaswamy, R.
    Abstract: The Lehman failure precipitated the Great Recession and forced economic policy into unchartered terrain. This paper provides a retrospective on the policy response and links to the underwhelming economic recovery. The exposition is kept non-technical to facilitate wider access. Contrary to perceptions that banks remain vulnerable, this paper argues that regulation strengthened U.S. banks across a variety of dimensions. The deleveraging involved in the transition to stronger banks tightened financial conditions and offset the significant monetary stimulus. The failure to fully capture these offsetting policy forces explains the systematic forecasting errors—both markets and the Fed have consistently overestimated the strength of the economic cycle. Quantitative Easing resulted in a ballooning of excess reserves in the banking system, but payment of interest on excess reserves helped bank recapitalisation. The combination of stronger banks and excess reserves has the potential, unlike in previous cycles, to drive a late cycle surge in growth.
    Keywords: Quantitative Easing, financial regulation, deleveraging
    JEL: E4 E5 G1 G2
    Date: 2018–04–04
  19. By: Feldkircher, Martin; Kakamu, Kazuhiko
    Abstract: We examine the effects of monetary policy on income inequality in Japan using a novel econometric approach that jointly estimates the Gini coefficient based on micro-level grouped data of households and the dynamics of macroeconomic quantities. Our results indicate different effects on income inequality for different types of households: A monetary tightening increases inequality when income data is based on households whose head is employed (workers' households), while the effect reverses over the medium term when considering a broader definition of households. Differences in the relative strength of the transmission channels can account for this finding. Finally we demonstrate that the proposed joint estimation strategy leads to more informative inference while results based on the frequently used two-step estimation approach yields inconclusive results.
    Keywords: Income inequality; Monetary policy; Grouped data; Bayesian analysis
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Andrew Phiri (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)
    Abstract: The global financial crisis of 2008 sparked an ongoing debate concerning the interlink between monetary policy and equity returns. This study contributes to the debate by examining whether the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) repo rate responds asymmetrically to changes in the returns on four equity indices on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Our empirical model is the momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model which is applied to monthly data corresponding to periods before the financial crisis (2002:01 - 2008:08) and periods after the crisis (2008:08 - 2016:12). There are three main findings which can be derived from our empirical analysis. Firstly, we significant negative relationship between equity prices to the repo rate before the crisis and this relationship turns insignificant in periods after the crisis. Secondly, we find that the Reserve Bank mainly monitored positive disturbances to equity indices before the crisis whereas after the crisis the Reserve Bank appears to be more responsive to negative equity deviations. Lastly, we find significant error correcting behaviour in periods before the crisis but not afterwards. Overall, our results indicate that the SARB appears to have been responsive to equity returns prior to the crisis but not for subsequent periods.
    Keywords: Repo rate, Stock market returns, Monetary Policy, South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), Financial crisis, South Africa.
    JEL: C22 C52 F21 F41
    Date: 2017–08
  21. By: Cavallari, Lilia
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of non-homothetic preferences for monetary policy from both a positive and a normative perspective. It draws on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model characterized by preferences with a variable elasticity of substitution among goods and with price adjustment costs à la Rotemberg. These preferences have remarkable implications for monetary policy. Three main results stand out from a comparison of models with an increasing and a constant elasticity. First, an increasing elasticity induces novel intertemporal substitution effects that amplify the propagation of monetary and technology shocks. Second, it weakens the ability of a simple Taylor rule to attain a given level of macroeconomic stabilization. Third, the smallest welfare losses can be attained by stabilizing both inflation and output, in contrast to the prevailing view - based on models with a constant elasticity - that the best thing the monetary authority can do is to control inflation only.
    Keywords: non-homothetic preferences; monetary policy; output stabilization; inflation stabilization; Taylor rule; new-Keynesian model; time-varying elasticity.
    JEL: E12 E32 E52 E61
    Date: 2018–02
  22. By: Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan); Lateef O. Akanni (Department of Economics, University of Lagos,Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria); Rasheed O. Azeez (Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.; Department of Economics, Fountain University, Nigeria.)
    Abstract: In this paper, we attempt to exploit any inherent useful information in Bitcoin to predict the future path of the most tradable currency pairs in the world. We also verify whether the forecast outcomes can compare favourably with the time series model such as the fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) model. We follow the Lewellen (2004) and Westerlund and Narayan (2102, 2015) approaches that account for any statistical effect that could bias the regression estimates. Our results suggest that Bitcoin is a good predictor of the selected currency pairs and more importantly, its forecast results outperform the time series model judging by the Diebold and Mariano test regardless of the data sample and forecast horizon. Although, recent evidence in the literature seems to suggest that the Bitcoin bubble will soon burst, its connection with the considered currency pairs may be exploited while it lasts.
    Keywords: Bitcoin, Exchange rates, Forecast evaluation
    JEL: F31 F37 G15
    Date: 2018–03
    Date: 2018
  24. By: Adrian Penalver (Banque de France); Nobuyuki Hanaki (Université Côte d'Azur; CNRS, GREDEG; IUF); Eizo Akiyama (University of Tsukuba, Japan); Yukihiko Funaki (Waseda University, Japan); Ryuichiro Ishikawa (University of Tsukuba)
    Abstract: We experimentally investigate the effect of a central bank buying bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation. In our experiment, the bonds are perfect substitute for cash, and have a constant fundamental value (FV) which is not affected by QE in the rational expectations equilibrium. We found that QE raised the bond prices beyond those in the benchmark treatment without QE and these differences became larger as subjects gained experience. While subjects in the benchmark treatment learned to trade the bonds at its FV, those in treatments with QE became more convinced that QE boosts bond prices.
    Keywords: Quantitative easing, experimental asset market, expectation dynamics JEL Code: C90, D84
    JEL: C90 D84
    Date: 2018–04
  25. By: Guido della Valle; Erald Themeli; Romain M Veyrune; Ezequiel Cabezon; Shaoyu Guo
    Abstract: Based on the experience of the Bank of Albania, the paper proposes a framework to estimate the interest rate lower bound in small, open, and euroized economies. The paper introduces a stylized monitoring tool to assess the unintended consequences of low policy rates. The paper is the first attempt to estimate the impact of low interest rate on the public’s demand for banknote by denomination. A strong preference for banknotes leads economic agents to require a higher remuneration of banks’ deposits, lifting the lower bound above zero. Financial euroization also lifts the lower policy bound due to the higher propensity of substituting domestic with foreign currency–denominated assets as a function of the interest rate differential. Policies aiming at reducing financial euroization contribute to bring down the lower bound.
    Date: 2018–03–13
  26. By: Rod Tyers; Yixiao Zhou
    Abstract: Proximity to short yield zero lower bounds has challenged the inflation targeting central banks of the advanced regions. Central to this development are three-decade declining trends in long yields and underlying real, equilibrium interest rates that have flattened yield curves, restricting “normalisation” and adding deflationary pressure by boosting demand for portfolio money. Inflationary forces, such as fiscal deficits, industrial protection and resurgent regional growth, have proved comparatively weak. In this paper global modelling is used to show that key deflationary forces in these regions include automation, the race to the bottom in capital taxation and immigration. Each is shown to redistribute income so as to expand the welfare gap between the low-skilled and capital owners by 2.5 to 3.5 per cent per year. The high saving rates of capital owners depress real equilibrium rates and their expanding portfolios demand monetary expansion. These forces ensure that the challenges of macro stabilisation and distributional policy making are both intertwined and urgent.
    Keywords: Inflation, deflation, productivity, automation, income distribution, tax, transfers, general equilibrium analysis
    JEL: D33 E52 J11 O33
    Date: 2018–04
  27. By: Hai-Chuan Xu (ECUST); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST); Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)
    Abstract: We employ the thermal optimal path method to explore both the long-term and short-term interaction patterns between the onshore CNY and offshore CNH exchange rates (2012-2015). For the daily data, the CNY and CNH exchange rates show a weak alternate lead-lag structure in most of the time periods. When CNY and CNH display a large disparity, the lead-lag relationship is uncertain and depends on the prevailing market factors. The minute-scale interaction pattern between the CNY and CNH exchange rates change over time according to different market situations. We find that US dollar appreciation is associated with a lead-lag relationship running from offshore to onshore, while a (contrarian) Renminbi appreciation is associated with a lead-lag relationship running from onshore to offshore. These results are robust with respect to different sub-sample analyses and variations of the key smoothing parameter of the TOP method.
    Date: 2018–03
  28. By: Javier G. Gómez-Pineda (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: A raise in inflation targets would be viable if implemented strategically, that is, at the time of a pickup in demand. Policy interest rates would not be constrained by the zero-bound as the result of a balance between two forces: first, policy interest rates must drop under a raise in the inflation target; and second, policy interest rates must rise under a pickup in demand. We use a simple new-Keynesian, semi-structural model to find the natural rate as well as other non observables, including inflation expectations, for a group of advanced economies. We also use the model to explain the role of demand and monetary policy in the evolution of inflation and the output gap. The document shows how a sizable drop in the natural rate pushed policy interest rates against the zero-bound. **** Un aumento en las metas de inflación es viable, si se implementa estratégicamente, es decir, durante un repunte de la demanda. Las tasas de interés no estarían restringidas por el límite cero como resultado de un balance entre dos fuerzas: primero, las tasas de política deben caer bajo un aumento en la meta de inflación; y segundo, deben aumentar ante un aumento en la demanda. Utilizamos un modelo sencillo, neo keynesiano y semi estructural para encontrar la tasa natural así como otros no observables, incluidas las expectativas de inflación, para un grupo de economías avanzadas. También utilizamos el modelo para estudiar el papel de la demanda y la política monetaria en la evolución de la inflación y la brecha del producto. El documento muestra cómo una considerable caída en la tasa natural empujó las tasas de interés de política contra el límite cero. Classification JEL: E58; E37; E43; Q43
    Keywords: Natural rate, Zero-bound, Strategic policy, Monetary policy stance, Taylor rule
    Date: 2018–04
  29. By: Helge Berger; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Maurice Obstfeld
    Abstract: The paper makes an analytical contribution to the revived discussion about the euro area’s institutional setup. After significant progress during the euro crisis, the drive to complete Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) had stalled, and the way forward will benefit from an in-depth look at the conceptual issues raised by the evolution and architecture of Europe, and the tradeoffs involved. A thorough look at the underlying economic issues suggests that in the long run, EMU will benefit from progressing along three mutually supporting tracks: introduce more fiscal risk sharing, helping to make the sovereign “no bailout” rule credible; complementary financial sector reforms to delink sovereigns and banks; and more effective rules to discourage moral hazard. This evolution would ensure that financial markets provide incentives for fiscal discipline. Introducing more fiscal union comes with myriad legal, technical, operational, and political problems, raising questions well beyond the remit of economics. But without decisive progress to foster fiscal risk sharing, EMU will continue to face existential risks.
    Keywords: Sweden;Switzerland;United Kingdom;Monetary unions;Spain;Italy;Fiscal policy;France;Germany;Greece;Austria;Belgium;Czech Republic;Denmark;Economic integration;Europe;European Economic and Monetary Union;European Monetary Union;Euro area; currency union; fiscal union; fiscal risk sharing; governance; bailout; fiscal rules, General, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Intergovernmental Relations, Governmental Loans and Credits
    Date: 2018–02–20
  30. By: Fadia Al Hajj (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Gilles Dufrenot (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Benjamin Keddad (PSB - Paris School of Business)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the theoretical choice of exchange rate anchors in Sub-Saharan African countries that are facing external vulnerabilities. To reduce instability, policymakers choose among promoting external competitiveness using a real anchor, lowering the burden of external debt using a nominal anchor or using a policy mix of both anchors. We observe that these countries tend to adopt mixed anchor policies. We solve a state space model to explain the determinants of and the strategy behind this policy. We find that the choice of policy mix is a two-step strategy: First, authorities choose the degree of nominal exchange rate flexibility according to the velocity of money, trade openness, foreign debt, degree of exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate target zone. Second, authorities seek to stabilize the real exchange rate depending on the degree of trade integration with the rest of world and the degree of foreign exchange interventions. We conclude with regime-switching estimations to provide empirical evidence of how these economic fundamentals influence exchange rate policy in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Keywords: African countries, exchange rate policy, external vulnerabilities, regime-switching model
    JEL: C32 F31 O24
    Date: 2018–03
  31. By: Sweder van Wijnbergen (UvA, CEPR)
    Abstract: What could be the drivers of low real rates? What are the implications of the Zero Lower Bound for economic policy? To discuss these questions we introduce a full general equilibrium model of the world economy with a simple (2 period) intertemporal structure. The model is simple enough to allow for full analytical solution yet sufficiently complex to allow us to address the impact of anticipated future productivity slow down, aging, structural reform and fiscal policy on real interest rates if markets clear and on aggregate economic activity if they do not because of the ZLB. We extend both the equilibrium model and the ZLB variant to a more-goods-per-period set up with complete specialization to address (real) exchange rate policy and the macroeconomic impact of trade tariffs.
    Keywords: equilibrium real interest rates; aging; productivity change; the ZLB; real exchange rates; import tariffs
    JEL: E62 F13 F40 F41 H30
    Date: 2018–03–30
  32. By: Yusuke Oshima (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Yoichi Matsubayashi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: In this study, we empirically examine the effects of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s communications through its meeting minutes on the financial markets, especially during Mr. Kuroda's administration from April 2013 to September 2017. Using computational linguistic models and the Latent Dirichlet Allocation, we quantify the contents of the BOJ minutes and extract topics form these minutes, including the bank's historical monetary policy and policymakers' views on current economic conditions. The empirical results suggest that a relationship exists between the estimated topics and the market reactions on the days on which the minutes are released. Although the market paid attention to the monetary policy description in the minutes in the early period of the introduction of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE), the significance of monetary policy information under the October 2014 expansion of the QQE on financial markets faded. In contrast, information on fund-provisioning measures to support Japanese companies' activities, including a negative interest rate policy, induced a decline in the stock market. We found that the market pays attention to meeting members' opinions on current economic conditions.
    Date: 2018–04

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