nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2015‒05‒02
29 papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-Universität Marburg

  1. Is deflation good or bad? Just mind the inflation gap By Marco Casiraghi; Giuseppe Ferrero
  2. The International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Trade Data By Shu Lin; Haichun Ye
  3. The legal framework for the European System of Central Banks By Siekmann, Helmut
  4. Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata By Michael J. Lamla; Lena Dräger
  5. The U.S. monetary policy outlook and its global implications By Dudley, William
  6. Limited Liability, Asset Price Bubbles and the Credit Cycle: The Role of Monetary Policy By Jakub Mateju
  7. "Is Paper Money Just Paper Money? Experimentation and Variation in the Paper Monies Issued by the American Colonies from 1690 to 1775" By Farley Grubb
  8. Structural and cyclical determinants of bank interest rate pass-through in Eurozone By Aurélien Leroy; Yannick Lucotte
  9. Monetary Policy versus Structural Reforms: The Case of Croatia By Vidakovic, Neven; Radošević, Dubravko
  10. The bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy: the impact of the VLTROs on credit supply in Spain By Miguel García-Posada; Marcos Marchetti
  11. The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises. By S. Avouyi-Dovi; G. Horny; P. Sevestre
  12. The euro as an international currency By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  13. Does Foreign Bank Entry Affect Monetary Policy Effectiveness?: Exploring the Interest Rate Pass-Through Channel By Sasidaran Gopalan; Ramikishen S. Rajan
  14. Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil By Joaquim Pinto de Andrade; José Angelo C. A. Divino
  15. Fiscal policy, interest rate spreads,and the zero lower bound By Christian Bredemeier; Falko Juessen; Andreas Schabert
  16. The Demand and Supply of Money Under High Inflation: Brazil 1974/94 By Octávio A. F. Tourinho
  17. The legality of outright monetary transactions (OMT) of the European system of central banks By Siekmann, Helmut
  18. An holistic approach to ECB asset purchases, the Investment Plan and CMU By Natacha Valla; Jesper Berg; Laurent Clerc; Olivier Garnier; Erik Nielsen
  19. Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Brazil By Brisne J. V. Céspedes; Elcyon C. R. Lima; Alexis Maka; Mário J. C. Mendonça
  20. Monnet's Error? By Guiso, Luigi; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi
  21. On the welfare properties of fractional reserve banking By Sanches, Daniel R.
  22. Relative Price Variability and Inflation: New evidence By Deniz Baglan; M. Ege Yazgan; Hakan Yilmazkuday
  23. The Variance of Inflation and the Stability of the Demand for Money in Brazil: a Bayesian Approach By Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima; Ricardo Sandes Ehlers
  24. Is Economic Development Promoting Monetary Integration in East Asia? By KAWASAKI Kentaro; WANG Zhiqian
  25. Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE By Kutasi, Gábor
  26. Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil By Ajax R. B. Moreira; Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti
  27. Public opinion and the crisis: the dynamics of support for the euro By Sara B. Hobolt; Christopher Wratil
  28. Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brasil after the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models By Brisne J. V. Céspedes; Elcyon C. R. Lima; Alexis Maka
  29. Estimating the effects of a credit supply restriction: is there a bias in the Bank Lending Survey? By Andrea Nobili; Andrea Orame

  1. By: Marco Casiraghi (Bank of Italy); Giuseppe Ferrero (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We explain why the macroeconomic effects of shocks to inflation of the same size, but opposite sign, are not necessarily symmetric. All in all, the costs of deflation and disinflation tend to exceed those of inflation due to the presence of constraints in the economy, namely the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, downward nominal wage rigidity and borrowing limits. When these constraints are binding, they can prevent monetary policy from closing the inflation gap, labor market from clearing and agents from deleveraging. The impact of a disinflationary shock on the tightness of these constraints depends on the cyclical and structural conditions of the economy. We argue that it would be a mistake to assume that perverse effects can arise only with actual deflation and thus that the classification of deflationary episodes into good (supply-driven) and bad ones (demand-driven) is not only incorrect, but also misleading in terms of policy implications. Empirical evidence for the euro area suggests that the three constraints have become increasingly tight recently.
    Keywords: monetary policy, unconventional monetary measures
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: Shu Lin (Fudan University and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Haichun Ye (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: We make the first attempt in the literature to empirically examine the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on trade in other countries. In a large sector-level bilateral trade dataset of 137 countries for the years 1970-2000, we find strong and robust evidence supporting an international credit channel of U.S. monetary policy transmission. We show that: 1) financially more constrained sectors have a more negative exposure of their trade to a tight U.S. monetary policy; 2) this international credit channel works mainly during significant U.S. monetary tightening periods (e.g., a large increase in interest rates); 3) the negative impact of a tight U.S. policy is significantly stronger in financially less developed countries or countries with no monetary autonomy.
    Keywords: International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy, Trade, Credit Constraints, Credit Channel
    JEL: E52 E44 F14 F33 F42
    Date: 2015–04
  3. By: Siekmann, Helmut
    Abstract: The paper traces the developments from the formation of the European Economic and Monetary Union to this date. It discusses the fact that the primary mandate of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) is confined to safeguarding price stability and does not include general economic policy. Finally, the paper contributes to the discussion on whether the primary law of the European Union would support a eurozone exit. The Treaty of Maastricht imposed the strict obligation on the European Union (EU) to establish an economic and monetary union, now Article 3(4) TEU. This economic and monetary union is, however, not designed as a separate entity but as an integral part of the EU. The single currency was to become the currency of the EU and to be the legal tender in all Member States unless an exemption was explicitly granted in the primary law of the EU, as in the case of the UK and Denmark. The newly admitted Member States are obliged to introduce the euro as their currency as soon as they fulfil the admission criteria. Technically, this has been achieved by transferring the exclusive competence for the monetary policy of the Member States whose currency is the euro on the EU, Article 3(1)(c) TFEU and by bestowing the euro with the quality of legal tender, the only legal tender in the EU, Article 128(1) sentence 3 TFEU.
    Keywords: economic and monetary union,euro,monetary policy,economic policy
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Michael J. Lamla (University of Essex, UK); Lena Dräger (University of Hamburg, Germany)
    Abstract: There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the future interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well as news on money and credit conditions significantly influence disagreement.
    Keywords: Disagreement, Taylor rule, interest rate expectations, inflation expectations, unemployment expectations, microdata
    JEL: E31 E58 D84 C33
    Date: 2015–04
  5. By: Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Remarks at the Bloomberg Americas Monetary Summit, New York City.
    Keywords: emerging market economies (EMEs); economic growth; taper tantrum; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator; interest on excess reserves (IOER); normalization
    JEL: E52
    Date: 2015–04–20
  6. By: Jakub Mateju
    Abstract: This paper suggests that non-fundamental component in asset prices is one of the drivers of the financial and credit cycle. The presented model builds on the financial accelerator literature by including a stock market where limitedly-liable investors trade stocks of productive firms with stochastic productivities. Investors borrow funds from the banking sector and can go bankrupt. Their limited liability induces a moral hazard problem which shifts demand for risk and drives prices of risky assets above their fundamental value. Embedding the contracting problem in a New Keynesian general equilibrium framework, the model shows that loose monetary policy induces loose credit conditions and leads to a rise in both fundamental and non-fundamental components of stock prices. Positive shock to non-fundamental component triggers a financial cycle: collateral values rise, lending and default rates decrease. These effects reverse after several quarters, inducing a credit crunch. The credit boom lasts only while stock market growth maintains sucient momentum. However, monetary policy does not reduce the volatility of inflation and output gap by reacting to asset prices.
    Keywords: credit cycle; limited liability; non-fundamental asset pricing; collateral value; monetary policy;
    JEL: E32 E44 E52 G10
    Date: 2015–03
  7. By: Farley Grubb (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)
    Abstract: The British North American colonies were the first western economies to rely on legislature-issued paper monies as an important internal media of exchange. This system arose piecemeal. In the absence of banks and treasuries that exchanged paper monies at face value for specie monies on demand, colonial governments experimented with other ways to anchor their paper monies to real values in the economy. These mechanisms included tax-redemption, land-backed loans, sinking funds, interest-bearing notes, and legal tender laws. The structure and performance of these mechanisms are explained and assessed. This was monetary experimentation on a grand scale.
    Keywords: Adam Smith, Benjamin Franklin, bills of credit, fiat currency, interest-bearing money, land banks, legal tender laws, paper money, sinking funds, tax redemption, zero-coupon bonds
    JEL: E42 E50 F31 G10 H60 K29 N11 N21 N41
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Aurélien Leroy; Yannick Lucotte
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the evolution and the sources of interest rate pass-through heterogeneity in the Eurozone for a sample of 11 euro area countries over the period 2003M1-2011M12. Considering two harmonized bank retail rates, we first estimate single equation error correction models (ECM) and find an important pass-through heterogeneity, both for household and firm rates, even if results suggest that heterogeneity is not a new phenomenon. On the basis of this result, we then extend our analysis by studying the role played by a large number of structural and cyclical factors on monetary policy transmission. Findings based on a panel ECM approach and a panel interaction VAR framework indicate that financial tensions and fragile economic activity following the crisis are not the only factors that explain the heterogeneous monetary transmission in the euro. The differences of financial market structures across countries, in terms of banking competition and financial market development, also explain a part of this heterogeneity. In terms of policy implications, this means that future reforms promoting a more efficient and homogeneous monetary policy transmission should not only focus on risk factors, but also try to consolidate financial integration.
    Keywords: Interest rate pass-through; Monetary policy transmission; Eurozone; Error correction model; Interacted panel VAR
    JEL: C23 D40 E43 E44 E58
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Vidakovic, Neven; Radošević, Dubravko
    Abstract: Over the course of the recession during the last six years, central bank officials in Croatia have on numerous occasions stated there is a strong need for structural reforms in Croatia and that there is no need for monetary policy reforms. This short paper investigates why the CNB is only demanding fiscal reforms (i.e. internal devaluation) and is not offering any monetary reforms (conventional or unconventional monetary policy responses). Over the course of the last 15 years CNB has caused several structural changes that lead to financial instability. This paper reviews three main structural changes initiated by the central bank, i.e. structural changes of: credit policy of the banking system, development in the external indebtedness and central bank independence. The modern monetary theories and new central bank strategies imposed new views on central bank policy measures. We suggest several financial sector and central banking reforms in Croatia, including accession of Croatia to SSM, the first pillar of EU banking union.
    Keywords: deposit interest rate, probability of default, banks,
    JEL: E43 G21 G32
    Date: 2014–02
  10. By: Miguel García-Posada (Banco de España); Marcos Marchetti (Banco de España)
    Abstract: We assess the impact on the credit supply to non-financial corporations of the two verylong-term refinancing operations (VLTROs) conducted by the Eurosystem in December 2011 and February 2012 for the case of Spain. To do so we use bank-firm level information from a sample of more than one million lending relationships over two years. Our methodology tackles the two main identification challenges: (i) how to disentangle credit supply from demand; and (ii) the endogeneity of VLTRO bids, as banks with more deteriorated funding conditions were more likely both to ask for a large amount of funds and to restrict credit supply. First, we exploit the fact that many firms simultaneously borrow from several banks to effectively control for firm-specific credit demand. Second, we exhaustively control for banks’ funding difficulties by constructing several measures of balance-sheet strength and by including bank fixed effects. Our findings suggest that the VLTROs had a positive moderately-sized effect on the supply of bank credit to firms, providing evidence of a bank lending channel in the context of unconventional monetary policy. We also find that the effect was greater for illiquid banks and that it was driven by credit to SMEs, as there was no impact on loans to large firms.
    Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, VLTRO, credit supply, bank lending channel.
    JEL: E52 E58 G21
    Date: 2015–04
  11. By: S. Avouyi-Dovi; G. Horny; P. Sevestre
    Abstract: We analyse the dynamics of the pass-through of banks’ marginal cost to bank lending rates over the 2008 crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We measure banks’ marginal cost by their rate on new deposits, contrary to the literature that focuses on money market rates. This allows us to account for banks’ risks. We focus on the interest rate on new short-term loans granted to non-financial corporations in these countries. Our analysis is based on an error-correction approach that we extend to handle the time-varying long-run relationship between banks’ lending rates and banks’ marginal cost, as well as stochastic volatility. Our empirical results are based on a harmonised monthly database from January 2003 to October 2014. We estimate the model within a Bayesian framework, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC).We reject the view that the transmission mechanism is time invariant. The long-run relationship moved with the sovereign debt crises to a new one, with a slower pass-through and higher bank lending rates. Its developments are heterogeneous from one country to the other. Impediments to the transmission of monetary rates depend on the heterogeneity in banks marginal costs and therefore, its risks. We also find that rates to small firms increase compared to large firms in a few countries. Using a VAR model, we show that overall, the effect of a shock on the rate of new deposits on the unexpected variances of new loans has been less important since 2010. These results confirm the slowdown in the transmission mechanism.
    Keywords: bank interest rates, error-correction model, structural breaks, stochastic volatility, Bayesian econometrics.
    JEL: E43 G21
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Paris School of Economics - Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The euro, in spite of having many of the required attributes put forward by the theoretical literature and past experience, has failed to fulfill all the criteria that would enable it to rival the dollar as an international currency. This does not mean that the euro cannot achieve a status similar to that of the dollar; however, the window of opportunity may not last much more than a decade before the renminbi overtakes the euro. European monetary unification has never explicity sought for its currency to gain an international status. This makes sense insofar as the key elements required for the euro to expand internationally are also those to be pursued internally: GDP growth; a fiscal backing to the single currency; a deep, liquid and resilient capital market; and a unified external representation of the euro area
    Keywords: Currency internationalization; euro
    JEL: F36
    Date: 2015–03
  13. By: Sasidaran Gopalan (Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Ramikishen S. Rajan (School of Policy, Government and International Affairs (SPGIA), George Mason University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of foreign bank entry on interest-rate-pass-through for a panel of 57 emerging and developing economies over 1995-2009. The paper tests for possible thresholds in terms of foreign bank presence that differentially impact interest-rate passthrough. The empirical results suggest that there are strong threshold effects in that foreign bank entry tends to enhance interest rate pass-through only in countries with greater degree of foreign bank presence compared to those with limited entry. The paper also finds that when foreign bank entry leads to greater banking concentration, it significantly lowers the extent of interest rate transmission.
    Keywords: foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, financial inclusion, financial development, banking concentration, interest rates
    JEL: F21 G00 G21 O16
    Date: 2015–02
  14. By: Joaquim Pinto de Andrade; José Angelo C. A. Divino
    Abstract: This paper presents optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil derived from a backward looking expectation model consisting of a Keynesian IS function and an Augmented Phillips Curve (IS-AS). The IS function displays a high sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real interest rate and the Phillips Curve is accelerationist. The optimal monetary rules show low interest rate volatility with reaction coefficients lower than the ones suggested by Taylor (1993a,b). Reaction functions estimated through ADL and SUR models suggest that monetary policy has not been optimal and has aimed to product rather than inflation stabilization. Este trabalho apresenta regras ótimas de política monetária no Brasil derivadas de um modelo que consiste de uma função keinesiana IS e uma Curva de Phillips Aumentada (IS-AS) e com expectativas voltadas para trás. A função IS revela alta sensibilidade da demanda agregada à taxa de juros e a Curva de Phillips é aceleracionista. A regra ótima de política monetária mostra reduzida volatilidade da taxa de juros com coeficientes de reação menores do que os sugeridos por Taylor (1993a e b). Funções de reação estimadas através de modelos ADL e SUR sugerem que a política monetária não tem sido ótima e tem buscado estabilizar o produto em lugar da inflação.
    Date: 2015–01
  15. By: Christian Bredemeier; Falko Juessen; Andreas Schabert
    Abstract: This paper questions unconventional fiscal policy effects when the monetary policy rate is at the zero lower bound. We provide evidence for the US that the spread between the policy rate and the US-LIBOR, which is more relevant for private sector transactions, increases with government expenditures. We introduce a corresponding spread into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model which reproduces this observation. The model predicts that the fiscal multiplier takes conventional values, regardless of whether the policy rate follows a standard feedback rule or is at its zero lower bound. Likewise, labor tax increases exert contractionary effects in both cases.
    Keywords: Fiscal multiplier, tax policy, interest rate spreads, zero lower bound, liquidity premium
    JEL: E32 E42 E63
    Date: 2015–04–10
  16. By: Octávio A. F. Tourinho
    Abstract: A specification for the demand for money in economies where inflation is high and stochastic is presented. It uses a generalized functional form and includes the variance of the inflation rate as an explanatory variable, and is estimated for Brazil in the period 1974/94 under the assumption that the monetary policy is passive and that expectations are adaptive. The supply of money is then specified as a generalization to a stochastic environment of the rule proposed by Sargent and Wallace (1973). The money demand and supply equations are then estimated simultaneously, under rational expectations, by using the Johansen (1991) (VEC) procedure and interpreting the two cointegrating vectors which arise as the supply and demand equations. The restrictions suggested by the hypothesized theoretical models for the money market equilibrium in high inflation processes are tested and accepted for this data. Apresenta-se neste artigo uma especificação para o equilíbrio monetário em uma economia onde a taxa de inflação é elevada e estocástica. A equação de demanda por moeda utiliza a forma funcional generalizada de Box-Cox e inclui a variância da inflação como uma variável explicativa. A oferta de moeda é especificada como uma generalização para o ambiente estocástico da regra proposta por Sargent e Wallace. O sistema de equações é estimado para os dados brasileiros do período 1974/94 de dois modos. Primeiro, a sua forma reduzida é estimada sob a hipótese de que a política monetária é passiva e de que as expectativas são adaptativas Em seguida, ele é estimado em sua forma estrutural, sob a hipótese de que as expectativas são racionais, usando o procedimento VEC de Johansen. Argumenta-se que os dois vetores de cointegração que são obtidos podem ser interpretados como representações das equações de oferta e demanda de moeda. Finalmente, as restrições extraídas dos modelos teóricos apresentados na primeira parte do artigo para caracterizar o equilíbrio de mercado sob condições de inflação elevada são aceitas no teste empírico do modelo para estes dados.
    Date: 2015–01
  17. By: Siekmann, Helmut
    Abstract: In its meeting on 6 September 2012, the Governing Council of the ECB took decisions on a number of technical features regarding the Eurosystem's outright transactions in secondary sovereign bond markets (OMT). This decision was challenged in the German Federal Constitutional Court (GFCC) by a number of constitutional complaints and other petitions. In its seminal judgment of 14 January 2014, the German court expressed serious doubts on the compatibility of the ECB's decision with the European Union law. It admitted the complaints and petitions even though actual purchases had not been executed and the control of acts of an organ of the EU in principle is not the task of the GFCC. As justification for this procedure the court resorted to its judicature on a reserved "ultra vires" control and the defense of the "constitutional identiy" of Germany. In the end, however, the court referred the case pursuant to Article 267 TFEU to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for preliminary rulings on several questions of EU law. In substance, the German court assessed OMT as an act of economic policy which is not covered by the competences of the ECB. Furthermore, it judged OMT as a - by EU primary law - prohibited monetary financing of sovereign debt. The defense of the ECB (disruption of monetary policy transmission mechanism) was dismissed without closer scrutiny as being "irrelevant". Finally the court opened, however, a way for a compromise by an interpretation of OMT in conformity with EU law under preconditions, specified in detail. Procedure and findings of this judgment were harshly criticized by many economists but also by the majority of legal scholars. This criticism is largely convincing in view of the admissibility of the complaints. Even if the "ultra vires" control is in conformity with prior decisions of court it is in this judgment expanded further without compelling reasons. It is also questionable whether the standing of the complaining parties had to be accepted and whether the referral to the ECJ was indicated. The arguments of the court are, however, conclusive in respect of the transgression of competences by the ECB and - to somewhat lesser extent - in respect of the monetary debt financing. The dismissal of the defense as "irrelevant" is absolutey persuasive.
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Natacha Valla; Jesper Berg; Laurent Clerc; Olivier Garnier; Erik Nielsen
    Abstract: To stimulate and finance investment in Europe the three “policy stars” of Europe need to be aligned: the Capital Markets Union initiative, the €315bn Investment Plan, and the ECB’s €1,100bn asset purchase scheme. They jointly face a unique set of issues. First, the resilience and the cyclical performance of the European bank based system needs to be improved. Second, the “right” markets need to be developed for banks to outsource risks without jeopardising financial stability. Third, cross-border risk-sharing urgently needs to be rebalanced, because it has become, in the wake of the Great Recession, overly reliant on debt instruments as opposed to equity. We argue that to achieve alignment between initiatives, an overall strategic vision could: ? Set an explicit, holistic strategy, ensuring that the instruments in the Investment Plan receive appropriate regulatory treatment within the CMU, and are eligible to the ECB’s purchase programme and collateral. ? Set a strategic objective for the euro area financial structure. It could be a “spare wheel” model where (i) banks would remain predominant (with capital markets as a countercyclical “spare wheel”), and (ii) banks would outsource risk through covered bonds (with untranched securitisation acting as the “spare wheel”). ? Proactively promote equity instruments in all three policy initiatives for more sustainable cross border risk sharing. ? Promote a new business model for “credit assessment” with a value chain featuring the credit information collected by commercial and central banks. ? Re-orientate the ECB’s purchases away from sovereign debt instruments towards the instruments that will finance the Investment Plan, those of the so-called “agencies”, and private sector assets. ? Formally involve NPBs in the Investment Plan, preferably in the equity of the EFSI Fund. ? Improve the governance of public investment ex ante via independent, supra-national investment committees, and ex post via strict disciplinary measures. ? Be pragmatic but tangible in the objectives set for the Capital Markets Union (focus on cross-border insolvencies and improve national business environments).
    Keywords: ECB;Capital Markets Union;cross-border capital flows;policy strategy;securitization;covered bonds;financial structure;Quantitative Easing
    JEL: E42 E44 E52 E58 E61
    Date: 2015–04
  19. By: Brisne J. V. Céspedes; Elcyon C. R. Lima; Alexis Maka; Mário J. C. Mendonça
    Abstract: In this article we use the theory of conditional forecasts to develop a new Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for Brazil and compare it to the ones constructed using the methodologies suggested by Bernanke and Mihov (1998) and Batini and Turnbull (2002). We use Sims and Zha (1999) and Waggoner and Zha (1999) approaches to develop and compute Bayesian error bands for the MCIs. The new indicator we develop is called the Conditional Monetary Conditions Index (CMCI) and is constructed using, alternatively, Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) and Forward-Looking (FL) models. The CMCI is the forecasted output gap, conditioned on observed values of the nominal interest rate (the Selic rate) and of the real exchange rate. We show that the CMCI, when compared to the MCI developed by Batini and Turnbull (2002), is a better measure of monetary policy stance because it takes into account the endogeneity of variables involved in the analysis. The CMCI and the Bernanke and Mihov MCI (BMCI), despite conceptual differences, show similarities in their chronology of the stance of monetary policy in Brazil. The CMCI is a smoother version of the BMCI, possibly because the impact of changes in the observed values of the Selic rate is partially compensated by changes in the value of the real exchange rate. The Brazilian monetary policy, in the 2000:9- 2005:4 period and according to the last two indicators, has been expansionary near election months. Neste artigo utiliza-se a teoria das previsões condicionais para o desenvolvimento de um novo Índice de Condições Monetárias [Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)] para o Brasil, comparando-o com os índices obtidos seguindo as metodologias sugeridas por Bernanke e Mihov (1998) e Batini e Turnbull (2002). Adicionalmente, desenvolvem-se e calculam-se intervalos de confiança bayesianos para os MCIs, empregando-se a abordagem proposta por Sims e Zha (1999) e Waggoner e Zha (1999). O novo indicador desenvolvido é chamado de Índice de Condições Monetárias Condicional [Conditional Monetary Conditionals Index (CMCI)], e é construído utilizando-se alternativamente os modelos de Auto-regressão Vetorial Estrutural [Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) e Antecipativo [Forward-Looking (FL). O CMCI é a previsão do hiato do produto, condicionada aos valores observados da taxa de juros nominal (taxa Selic) e da taxa de câmbio real. Mostra-se que o CMCI, comparado ao MCI desenvolvido por Batini e Turnbull (2002), é um melhor indicador do estado da política monetária porque leva em consideração a endogeneidade das variáveis envolvidas na análise. O CMCI e o MCI Bernanke-Mihov (BMCI), apesar das diferenças conceituais, estabelecem uma cronologia semelhante para o estado da política monetária no Brasil. O CMCI é uma versão suavizada do BMCI, provavelmente porque o impacto de mudanças nos valores observados da taxa Selic é parcialmente compensado por mudanças no valor da taxa de câmbio real. De acordo com o CMCI e o BMCI, no período entre setembro de 2000 e abril de 2005, a política monetária brasileira tem sido expansionista nos meses próximos às eleições.
    Date: 2015–01
  20. By: Guiso, Luigi; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi
    Abstract: Entering a currency union without any political union European countries have taken a gamble: will the needs of the currency union force a political integration (as anticipated by Monnet) or will the tensions create a backlash, as suggested by Kaldor, Friedman and many others? We try to answer this question by analyzing the cross sectional and time series variation in pro-European sentiments in the EU 15 countries. The 1992 Maastricht Treaty seems to have reduced the pro-Europe sentiment as does the 2010 Eurozone crisis. Yet, in spite of the worst recession in recent history, the Europeans still support the common currency. Europe seems trapped: there is no desire to go backward, no interest in going forward, but it is economically unsustainable to stay still.
    Keywords: euro; euro crisis; European Union
    JEL: E42
    Date: 2015–04
  21. By: Sanches, Daniel R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: Supersedes Working Paper 13-32/R. Monetary economists have long recognized a tension between the benefits of fractional reserve banking, such as the ability to undertake more profitable (long-term) investment opportunities, and the difficulties associated with it, such as the risk of in-solvency for each bank and the associated losses to bank liability holders. I show that a specific banking arrangement (a joint-liability scheme) provides an effective mechanism for ensuring the ex-post transfer of reserves from liquid banks to illiquid banks, so it is possible to select a socially efficient reserve ratio in the banking system that preserves the safety of bank liabilities as a store of value and maximizes the rate of return paid to bank liability holders.
    Keywords: Fractional reserve banking; Reserve management; Risk sharing
    JEL: E42 G21
    Date: 2015–04–14
  22. By: Deniz Baglan (Department of Economics, Howard University); M. Ege Yazgan (Department of Economics, Kadir Has University); Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between relative price variability (RPV) and inflation using monthly micro price data for 128 goods in 13 Turkish regions/cities for the period 1994-2010. The unique feature of this data set is the inclusion of annual inflation rates ranging between 0 % and 90 %. Nonparametric estimations show that there is a hump-shaped relationship between RPV and inflation, where the maximum RPV is achieved when annual inflation is approximately 20 %. It is shown that this result is consistent with a region- or city-level homogenous menu cost model featuring Calvo pricing with an endogenous contract structure and non-zero steady-state inflation.
    Keywords: Relative price variability, Calvo pricing, Menu costs
    JEL: E31 E52
    Date: 2015–03
  23. By: Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima; Ricardo Sandes Ehlers
    Abstract: When analyzing the demand for money in high inflation processes it has been suggested [Tourinho (1995)] that we should consider not only the effects of changes in the expected inflation rate but also changes in the expected variability of inflation. The model in Lima & Ehlers (1993) is extended here to deal more accurately with the uncertainty produced by the variability of inflation: a term proportional to the expected quadratic error in forecasting inflation is included in the demand for money equation. The problem of what estimate to use for the expected variance of inflation, is addressed by a Bayesian estimation procedure. Model parameters are allowed to vary slowly over time and Bayesian monitoring and intervention procedures are then used to cater for structural changes. We estimate the model with data ranging from first quarter of 1973 to fourth quarter of 1995, thus taking into account many stabilization plans for the Brazilian economy. We find that the presence of variance of inflation in our money demand equation is important in two ways: a) it prevents the monitor from signaling again in 1990 after an intervention period in 1986 and b) its effect turns out to be significant after 1986 when many stabilization plans contributed to increase uncertainty. Em trabalho recente Tourinho (1995) sugeriu que, em processos de inflação elevada, deve ser considerada não somente a esperança da taxa de inflação mas também a variância esperada da taxa de inflação O modelo apresentado em Lima & Ehlers (1993) é aqui estendido para lidar com a incerteza produzida pela variabilidade da taxa de inflação : um termo proporcional à esperança do erro quadrático médio, na previsão da taxa de inflação, é incluído na equação de demanda por moeda. O problema de que estimativa utilizar, para a variância esperada da taxa de inflação, é resolvido através de um procedimento de estimação Bayesiano. É permitida a alteração dos parâmetros do modelo ao longo do tempo e são adotados procedimentos de monitoramento e intervenção Bayesianos para detectar-se mudanças estruturais. O modelo foi estimado com dados trimestrais entre o primeiro trimestre de 1973 e o quarto trimestre de 1995, e portanto considerando-se os diversos planos recentes de estabilização da economia Brasileira. Nós concluímos que a presença da variância esperada da taxa de inflação, na equação de demanda por moeda, é importante por duas razões principais: a) ela impede que o monitor sinalize em 1990 após uma intervenção no modelo em 1986 e b) o seu efeito se torna significante depois de 1986 quando diversos planos de estabilização contribuíram para aumentar a incerteza a respeito da taxa de inflação.
    Date: 2015–01
  24. By: KAWASAKI Kentaro; WANG Zhiqian
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate whether there exist international integrated markets among East Asian economies by employing the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model, which then would help to suggest whether or not the East Asian region is an optimum currency area (OCA). The empirical results in this paper suggest that holding the G-PPP among nine Asian countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) is more applicable in 2000-2013 than in 1984-1997. In the period of "globalization," which is characterized by the expansion of world trade, an increase of international capital flows, and development of information and communications technologies, Asian economic development has been promoting not only economic integrations but also constructing the stable linkages of real exchange rates. Therefore, it would be helpful to adopt regional coordination for monetary policies to assure the feasibility of a possible monetary union.
    Date: 2015–04
  25. By: Kutasi, Gábor
    Abstract: The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.
    Keywords: financial contagion, banking, Central and Eastern Europe, foreign exchange rate, non-performing loan
    JEL: F31 F37 G17 G21 G33
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Ajax R. B. Moreira; Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti
    Abstract: Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule under parameter uncertainty with the rule calculated under purely additive uncertainty, we find that parameter uncertainty should make policymakers react less aggressively to the economy’s state variables, as suggested by Brainard’s “conservatism principle”, although this effect seems to be relatively small. We then informally investigate each rule’s robustness by analyzing the performance of policy rules derived from each model under each one of the alternative models. We find that optimal rules derived from each model perform very poorly under alternative models, whereas a simple Taylor rule is relatively robust. We also find that even within a specific model, the Taylor rule may perform better than the optimal rule under particularly unfavorable realizations from the policymaker’s loss distribution function. Este texto analisa a robustez e as propriedades de estabilização de regras de política monetária no contexto de um pequeno modelo macroeconométrico para o Brasil. Estimam-se três versões do modelo “padrão” da literatura recente sobre regras de política monetária. Em cada caso, a regra ótima de política é calculada sob incerteza puramente aditiva e sob incerteza multiplicativa. Observa-se que a incerteza sobre os parâmetros do modelo atenua os coeficientes da função de reação ótima das autoridades, conforme sugerido pelo “princípio do conservadorismo” de Brainard — ainda que esse efeito seja relativamente pequeno. A robustez das regras de política é investigada informalmente por intermédio da análise do desempenho da regra ótima de cada modelo no contexto de cada um dos modelos alternativos. Os resultados mostram que as regras ótimas derivadas de um modelo específico tendem a apresentar desempenho muito fraco sob os demais modelos, em contraste com uma regra de Taylor simples, que se revela relativamente robusta. Finalmente, mostra-se que, mesmo no contexto de um modelo específico, a regra de Taylor pode ter desempenho superior à regra ótima, sob realizações particularmente desfavoráveis da distribuição de probabilidade da função de perda das autoridades.
    Date: 2015–01
  27. By: Sara B. Hobolt; Christopher Wratil
    Abstract: Further integration in the European Union (EU) increasingly depends on public legitimacy. The global financial crisis and the subsequent euro area crisis have amplified both the salience and the redistributive consequences of decisions taken in Brussels, raising the question of how this has influenced public support for European integration. In this contribution, we examine how public opinion has responded to the crisis, focusing on support for monetary integration. Interestingly, our results show that support for the euro has remained high within the euro area; however, attitudes are increasingly driven by utilitarian considerations, whereas identity concerns have become less important. While the crisis has been seen to deepen divisions within Europe, our findings suggest that it has also encouraged citizens in the euro area to form opinions on the euro on the basis of a cost–benefit analysis of European economic governance, rather than relying primarily on national attachments.
    Keywords: crisis; euro; euroscepticism; identity; public opinion
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2015–01–12
  28. By: Brisne J. V. Céspedes; Elcyon C. R. Lima; Alexis Maka
    Abstract: This article investigates the stochastic and dynamic relationship of a group of Brazilian macroeconomic variables (price and industrial production indexes, nominal exchange rate, short and medium-run nominal interest rates) for the period after the Real Plan (1996-2004). We adopt, as has become usual in the literature, several SVAR (structural VAR) models to uncover stylized facts for the short-run impacts of the identified exogenous sources of fluctuations of this selected set of variables. A distinctive feature of this article is the employment of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to obtain the contemporaneous causal order of the variables used to identify the SVAR models. Another distinguishing characteristic is the careful attention paid to monetary policy developments after the Real Plan when splitting our sample in two subsamples (1996/07-1998/08 and 1999/03-2004/12). The main results are: a) in response to a positive short run interest rate innovation, during the 1999-2004 subperiod, the output and the price level decrease—however, the output response is faster and the price level responds with a lag of near four months; b) for the 1996-1998 subperiod, the most likely effect of a positive short run interest rate innovation is the reduction of the price level (also with a four months lag), even though there is a large uncertainty in this response, and the reduction of output; c)short run interest rate innovations are one of the most important sources of temporary fluctuations in the level of economic activity for both subsamples; and d) exogenous shocks to the exchange rate and to the medium term interest rate are for the 1999-2004 period, the most important sources of inflation rate fluctuation. Este artigo investiga as relações estocásticas e dinâmicas de um grupo de variáveis macroeconômicas brasileiras (índices de preços, produção industrial, taxa de câmbio nominal, taxas de juros de curto e médio prazo, e M1) para o período após o Plano Real (1996-2004). Adota, como é usual na literatura, vários modelos SVARs (VAR estruturais) para determinar os fatos estilizados relativos aos impactos de curto prazo das fontes exógenas de flutuação identificadas para esse grupo de variáveis. O artigo inova ao empregar Grafos Acíclicos Direcionados (DAG) na obtenção das relações causais contemporâneas entre as variáveis e ao considerar que as alterações da política monetária, ocorridas após o Plano Real, tornam essencial a divisão da nossa amostra em dois subperíodos (1996/07-1998/08 e 1999/03-2004/12). Os resultados principais são: a) em resposta a uma inovação positiva na taxa de juros de curto prazo (Selic), durante o subperíodo 1999-2004, a produção e o nível de preços caem — porém, a resposta da produção é mais rápida que a do nível de preços, que só acontece com uma defasagem de aproximadamente quatro meses; b) para o período 1996-1998, o efeito mais provável de uma inovação positiva na taxa de juros de curto prazo é a redução do nível de preços  também com uma defasagem de quatro meses, embora haja uma grande incerteza em relação a essa resposta  e da produção; c) as inovações na taxa de juros de curto prazo (Selic) estão entre as fontes mais importantes da flutuação do nível de atividade econômica em ambos os subperíodos; e d) os choques exógenos na taxa de câmbio e na taxa de juros de médio prazo (Swap Pré x CDI) são, para o período 1999-2004, as fontes mais importantes da flutuação da taxa de inflação.
    Date: 2015–01
  29. By: Andrea Nobili (Bank of Italy); Andrea Orame (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: In this paper we test for the potential bias in the estimated contribution of a supply restriction on lending to enterprises, as captured by the assessment of credit standards provided by the banks participating in the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey (BLS banks). For Italy, we combine the information provided by the relatively small panel of large banking groups participating in the Eurosystem survey with the replies obtained from the non-overlapping and wider group of banks participating in the Regional Bank Lending Survey (non-BLS banks) carried out by the Bank of Italy. We find evidence of a limited upward bias in the estimated contribution of a tightening in credit standards from using the information for the BLS-only banks. This outcome mainly reflects a lower estimated sensitivity of lending growth to the considered indicators of a supply restriction for the non-BLS banks. The Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey, therefore, continues to be a timely and important source of information over the credit cycle for policymakers.
    Keywords: supply of credit, banks, Eurosystem BLS, Regional Bank Lending Survey
    JEL: G21 E51 E58
    Date: 2015–04

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