nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2014‒04‒18
24 papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-University Marburg

  1. Monetary Dialogue 2009-2014 – Looking Backward, Looking Forward By Ansgar Belke
  2. Current and Future ECB Monetary Policy. By Philip Arestis
  3. Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation By Gilles Dufrénot; Anwar Khayat
  4. Stability and Identification with Optimal Macroprudential Policy Rules By Chatelain, Jean-Bernard; Ralf, Kirsten
  5. U.S. monetary policy and emerging market economies By Dudley, William
  6. A money-based indicator for deflation risk By Gianni Amisano; Roberta Colavecchio; Gabriel Fagan
  7. The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: a new measure for the United Kingdom By Cloyne, James; Hürtgen, Patrick
  8. The possible trinity: Optimal interest rate, exchange rate, and taxes on capital flows in a DSGE model for a small open economy By Escudé, Guillermo J.
  9. The Role of Money in Explaining Business Cycles for a Developing Economy: The Case of Pakistan By Ahmed, Shahzad; Pasha, Farooq
  10. Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis By Henri Audigé
  11. In old Chicago: Simons, Friedman and the development of monetary-policy rules By George S. Tavlas
  12. Inflation expectations and the news By Bauer, Michael D.
  13. The Connection between Wall Street and Main Street: Measurement and Implications for Monetary Policy By Alessandro Barattieri; Maya Eden; Dalibor Stevanovic
  14. Searching for Irving Fisher By Mitchener, Kris James; Weidenmier, Marc D
  15. Banking and Sovereign Debt Crises in Monetary Union Without Central Bank Intervention. By Jin Cheng; Meixing Dai; Frédéric Dufourt
  16. The Rise of the “Redback” and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies By Ito, Hiro; Chinn, Menzie
  17. The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries By Blaise Gnimassoun
  18. Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes by Regression Methods By Michael Bleaney; Mo Tian
  19. Who Gets Money First? Monetary Expansion, Ownership Structure and Wage Inequality in China By Peiwen Bai; Wenli Cheng
  20. Financialisation in the circuit By Marco Veronese Passarella; Malcolm Sawyer
  21. The Euro and The Geography of International Debt Flows By Galina Hale; Maurice Obstfeld
  22. Theories of Financial Crises By Daniel Detzer; Hansjorg Herr
  23. Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics By Asonuma, Tamon
  24. Simplicity, transparency, and market discipline in regulatory reform By Plosser, Charles I.

  1. By: Ansgar Belke
    Abstract: This Paper comments on the role of the Monetary Dialogue in the context of an evolving monetary policy. The discussion is conducted in terms of the adoption of forward guidance on interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB), the ECB’s model choice and data revision policies in inflation forecasts, its membership in the Troika, its activities as a financial supervisor, as well as regards its bond purchasing activities and the implication for ECB monetary policy stemming from Fed’s envisaged exit from unconventional monetary policies. This paper also assesses on a case-by-case basis the actual exchange of information between the European Parliament (EP) and the ECB. We argue that the new ECB supervisory role has made the Monetary Dialogue exercise even more important “now” than in “normal” times. Still, we suggest changes, both procedural as well as regarding its focus range, to make it even more effective. In our view, the transparency/accountability issue represented by a Supervisory Board ‘hosted’ by ECB needs to be addressed. A crucial challenge for the Monetary Dialogue is also to assess the optimal degree of ECB transparency and accountability towards the EP, the key democratic institution.
    Keywords: Accountability; European Parliament; forward guidance; monetary dialogue; transparency
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2014–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0477&r=mon
  2. By: Philip Arestis (Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridg and University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU)
    Abstract: This paper examines the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) with respect to monetary policy, along with its effects on inflation, exchange rate and financial stability. It also discusses how the regulatory role of the ECB should be improved in the future. In this way, the paper discusses the involvement of the ECB in regulatory policy towards the financial sector, and the responses of the ECB to the financial crisis, instability and banks’ illiquidity and insolvency, as well as to sovereign insolvency. It begins with the current set up of the European Monetary Union (EMU) along with the theoretical principles of the EMU model, and the extent to which it conforms with the theoretical framework of the New Consensus Macroeconomics and its policy implications, namely inflation targeting. Problems with the current EMU arrangements are then discussed, followed by changes in view of the August 2007 financial crisis and the ‘great recession’. Required ECB changes, and of course changes in monetary policies are discussed before we finally summarize and conclude.
    Keywords: European Central Bank, Monetary Policy, European Monetary Union, Current and Future Developments.
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2014–03–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper28&r=mon
  3. By: Gilles Dufrénot (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Anwar Khayat (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM))
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) has adjusted its interest rate since 1999 nonlinearly according to the macroeconomic and financial environment in the euro zone. Its policy function is described by a Taylor rule with regime shifts implying that the stance of reaction to the inflation-gap and output-gap has varied according to the credit risk in the private and sovereign bond markets, the monetary base and past levels of inflation, output and the shocks affecting the European economies. We provide evidence of regimes corresponding to low to high levels of inflation with the possibility of a situation near a zero low bound (ZLB) for the interest rate. We study the implications of such a rule for the economy in a simple new-Keynesian framework and show that it is consistent with several stable long-run steady states equilibria among which one that is consistent with the recent situation of a near liquidity trap in the euro area. We also find that around this liquidity trap steady state the equilibrium is locally determinate for most plausible parameter values. We discuss the issue of moving from a situation of low nominal interest rate to a policy that have been more typically implemented in the past by relying on an analysis of the impact of shocks (supply and demand) to the economy.
    Keywords: nonlinear Taylor rules; multiple steady state equilibria; euro area
    Date: 2014–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00973504&r=mon
  4. By: Chatelain, Jean-Bernard; Ralf, Kirsten
    Abstract: This paper investigates the identification, the determinacy and the stability of ad hoc, "quasi-optimal" and optimal policy rules augmented with financial stability indicators (such as asset prices deviations from their fundamental values) and minimizing the volatility of the policy interest rates, when the central bank precommits to financial stability. Firstly, ad hoc and quasi-optimal rules parameters of financial stability indicators cannot be identified. For those rules, non zero policy rule parameters of financial stability indicators are observationally equivalent to rule parameters set to zero in another rule, so that they are unable to inform monetary policy. Secondly, under controllability conditions, optimal policy rules parameters of financial stability indicators can all be identified, along with a bounded solution stabilizing an unstable economy as in Woodford (2003), with determinacy of the initial conditions of non- predetermined variables. --
    Keywords: Identification,Financial Stability,Monetary Policy,Optimal Policy under Commitment,Augmented Taylor rule
    JEL: C61 C62 E43 E44 E47 E52 E58
    Date: 2014–04–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:95979&r=mon
  5. By: Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Remarks at the Roundtable Discussion in Honor of Terrence Checki: Three Decades of Crises: What Have We Learned?, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Keywords: asset purchase program; unconventional monetary policy; Terrence Checki
    JEL: E52 F15
    Date: 2014–03–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:133&r=mon
  6. By: Gianni Amisano (European Central Bank, DG Research); Roberta Colavecchio (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg)); Gabriel Fagan (European Central Bank, DG Research)
    Abstract: We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a function of monetary variables. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the model with data from the early 1970s up to the present. Our analysis suggests that the risks of a Low inflation regime in the euro area have been increasing in the course of the last six quarters of the sample; moreover, money growth appears to play a significant role in the assessment of such risks. Evidence for Japan and the US, on the other hand, shows that the inclusion of a monetary indicator variable does not substantially change the assessment of the risk of a Low inflation regime in either of the two countries.
    Keywords: Money growth, deflation, inflation regimes, Markov Switching models, Bayesian inference
    JEL: C11 C53 E31
    Date: 2014–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hep:macppr:201403&r=mon
  7. By: Cloyne, James (Bank of England); Hürtgen, Patrick (Department of Economics, University of Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer–Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by up to 0.6% and inflation by up to 1.0 percentage point after two to three years. Our approach resolves the price puzzle for the United Kingdom and we show that forecasts are crucial for this result. Finally, we show that the response of policy after the initial innovation is crucial for interpreting estimates of the effect of monetary policy. We can then reconcile differences across empirical specifications, with the wider vector autoregression literature and between our United Kingdom results and the larger narrative estimates for the United States.
    Keywords: monetary policy; narrative identification; real-time forecasts; business cycles
    JEL: E31 E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2014–03–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0493&r=mon
  8. By: Escudé, Guillermo J.
    Abstract: A traditional way of thinking about the exchange rate regime and capital account openness has been framed in terms of the 'impossible trinity' or 'trilemma', according to which policymakers can only have two of three possible outcomes: open capital markets, monetary independence and pegged exchange rates. The present paper is a natural extension of Escude (A DSGE Model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange Policies in Which Policymakers Exploit the Risk Premium for Stabilization Purposes, 2013), which focuses on interest rate and exchange rate policies, since it introduces the third vertex of the 'trinity' in the form of taxes on private foreign debt. These affect the risk-adjusted uncovered interest parity equation and hence influence the SOE's international financial flows. A useful way to illustrate the range of policy alternatives is to associate them with the faces of an isosceles triangle. Each of three possible government intervention policies taken individually (in the domestic currency bond market, in the foreign currency market, and in the foreign currency bonds market) corresponds to one of the vertices of the triangle, each of the three possible pairs of intervention policies corresponds to one of the three edges of the triangle, and the three simultaneous intervention policies taken jointly correspond to the triangle's interior. This paper shows that this interior, or 'possible trinity' is quite generally not only possible but optimal, since the central bank obtains a lower loss when it implements a policy with all three interventions. --
    Keywords: DSGE models,small open economy,monetary and exchange rate policy,capital controls,optimal policy
    JEL: E58 O24
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201413&r=mon
  9. By: Ahmed, Shahzad; Pasha, Farooq
    Abstract: In this paper, we establish the empirical linkages between nominal and real variables of Pakistani economy using both annual and quarterly data. The focus of our empirical analysis has been limited to the post financial liberalization period starting in early 1990s. Furthermore, this paper theoretically evaluates the role of money and monetary policy in propagating business cycle fluctuations of Pakistani economy using different ways of introducing the role of money via money in utility (MIU) and cash in advance constraint (CIA) as well as with different formulation of monetary policy either through a money growth rule or Taylor type interest rate rule.
    Keywords: General Equilibrium Models, Modeling and Simulations, Monetary Policy
    JEL: D58 E27 E52
    Date: 2014–04–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55262&r=mon
  10. By: Henri Audigé
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the determinants of global investors’ net flows to investment bond funds dedicated to emerging economies and analyze the effects of the U.S. expansionary monetary policy on these flows from 2010 to 2013. We particularly focus on investors’ behavior vis-à-vis emerging markets local and foreign currency bond funds. Our main findings confirm the significant external impact of U.S. monetary policy decisions – and especially tapering announcements – on net flows to foreign currency bond funds. Our results highlight the higher sensitivity of EMEs foreign currency bond markets to U.S monetary shocks and suggest possible transmission effects from developed to emerging bond markets.
    Keywords: Emerging market economies, capital flows, bond markets, shocks transmission, institutional investors, unconventional U.S. monetary policy.
    JEL: E44 G23 F32
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2014-23&r=mon
  11. By: George S. Tavlas (Bank of Greece)
    Abstract: This paper examines the different policy rules proposed by Henry Simons, who, beginning in the mid-1930s, advocated a price-level stabilization rule, and by Milton Friedman, who, beginning in the late-1950s, advocated a rule that targeted a constant growth rate of the money supply. Although both rules shared the objective of eliminating the policy uncertainty emanating from discretion, they differed because of the different views of Simons and Friedman about the stability of secular relationships. Simons' rule relates to modern rules which emphasize the pursuit of price stability as representing optimal monetary policy.
    Keywords: Milton Friedman; Henry Simons; monetary-policy rules
    JEL: B22 E52
    Date: 2014–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:177&r=mon
  12. By: Bauer, Michael D. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the importance of inflation expectations for variation in nominal interest rates, based on both market-based and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. Using the information in TIPS breakeven rates and inflation swap rates, I document that movements in inflation compensation are important for explaining variation in long-term nominal interest rates, both unconditionally as well as conditionally on macroeconomic data surprises. Daily changes in inflation compensation and changes in long-term nominal rates generally display a close statistical relationship. The sensitivity of inflation compensation to macroeconomic data surprises is substantial, and it explains a sizable share of the macro response of nominal rates. The paper also documents that survey expectations of inflation exhibit significant comovement with variation in nominal interest rates, as well as significant responses to macroeconomic news.
    Keywords: inflation expectations; macroeconomic news; inflation compensation; TIPS; inflation swaps; survey expectations
    JEL: E43 E44 E52
    Date: 2014–03–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2014-09&r=mon
  13. By: Alessandro Barattieri; Maya Eden; Dalibor Stevanovic
    Abstract: We propose a measure of the extent to which a financial sector is connected to the real economy. The Measure of Connectedness is the share of credit market instruments represented by claims whose direct counterpart belongs to the non-financial sectors. The aggregate U.S. Measure of Connectedness declines by about 27% in the period 1952-2009. We suggest that this increase in disconnectedness between the financial sector and the real economy may have dampened the sensitivity of the real economy to monetary shocks. We present a stylized model that illustrates how interbank trading can reduce the sensitivity of lending to the entrepreneur's net worth, thereby dampening the credit channel transmission of monetary policy. Finally, we interact our measure with both a SVAR and a FAVAR for the U.S. economy, and establish that the impulse responses to monetary policy shocks are dampened as the level of connection declines.
    Keywords: Connection, financial sector, real economy, monetary policy transmission mechanism,
    JEL: G20 E44 E52
    Date: 2013–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2013s-31&r=mon
  14. By: Mitchener, Kris James (University of Warwick); Weidenmier, Marc D (Claremont McKenna College)
    Abstract: There is a long-standing debate as to whether the Fisher effect operated during the classical gold standard period. We break new ground on this question by developing a market-based measure of inflation expectations during the gold standard. We derive a measure of silver-gold inflation expectations using the interest-rate differential between Austrian silver and gold perpetuity bonds. Our use of the silver-gold interest rate differential is motivated by the fact that both gold and silver served as numeraires in the pre-WWI period, so that a change in the price of either precious metal would impact the prices of all goods and services. The empirical evidence suggests that silver-gold inflation expectations exhibited significant persistence at the weekly, monthly, and annual frequencies. Further, we find that there is a one-to-one relationship between silver-gold inflation expectations and the interest rate on Austrian perpetuity bonds that were denominated in paper currency. The analysis suggests the operation of a Fisher effect during the classical gold standard period.
    Keywords: Fisher effect, inflation expectations, gold standard
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:133&r=mon
  15. By: Jin Cheng; Meixing Dai; Frédéric Dufourt
    Abstract: We propose a model to analyze the conditions of emergence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis in a monetary union with an institutional framework which is broadly similar to the Eurozone at the onset of the financial crisis. We show that when the responsibility of rescuing the banking system is entirely ascribed to domestic governments - in particular because the central bank is not allowed to intervene as a lender of last resort on sovereign bond markets - the main tool to fight against a systemic banking crisis (the financial safety net) may aggravate, instead of mitigate, the solvency problems of banks and of the government. Depending on investors' expectations, the banking system and the government may either survive a negative financial shock or fail together. In this context of negative self-fulfilling expectations, we also analyze the role of credit rating agencies as potential catalysts to the crisis, we emphasize possible contagion effects to "healthy" member states through the banking system, and we discuss proposed policy options like the creation of "Eurobonds" to avoid the resurgence of such crises.
    Keywords: banking crisis, sovereign debt crisis, bank runs, financial safety net, liquidity regulation, government deposit guaranteen self fulfilling propheties.
    JEL: E43 F31 F34 F4 G2
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2014-05&r=mon
  16. By: Ito, Hiro (Asian Development Bank Institute); Chinn, Menzie (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of currency choice for trade invoicing in a cross-country context while focusing on the link between capital account liberalization and its impact on the use of the renminbi (RMB). The authors find that while countries with more developed financial markets tend to invoice less in the US dollar, countries with more open capital accounts tend to invoice in either the euro or their home currency. These results indicate that financial development and financial openness are among the keys to challenging the US dollar dominance in general, and to internationalizing the RMB for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The model also suggests that the share of the RMB in export invoicing should have been higher than the actually observed share of less than 10%. The underperformance of RMB export invoicing can be attributed to the inertia in the choice of currency for trade invoicing; once a currency is used for trade invoicing or settlements, it becomes difficult for traders to switch from one currency to another. This same phenomenon was also observed in the cases of the Japanese yen and the euro at their inceptions as international currencies. The model predicts that the share of RMB invoicing for the PRC’s exports will rise to above 25% in 2015 and above 30% in 2018, whether or not the PRC implements drastic financial liberalization. As the near future path of RMB use is also expected to be inertial, these forecasts are probably at the upper end of the actual path of RMB export invoicing.
    Keywords: RMB internationalization; capital account liberalization; US dollar; export invoicing; currency invoicing; settlement currency
    JEL: F32 F41
    Date: 2014–04–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0473&r=mon
  17. By: Blaise Gnimassoun
    Abstract: One of the major current concerns of economic policy in developing countries is the choice of the appropriate exchange rate regime to consolidate and accelerate the pace of economic growth. This paper aims to investigate whether the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect current account imbalances for sub-Saharan African economies. To this end, we first use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address concerns about model uncertainty and identify the key determinants (fundamentals) of external balances. Then, estimating current account imbalances over the 1980-2012 period, we show that flexible exchange rate regimes are more effective in preventing such disequilibria. Consequently, candidates for membership of monetary unions should discuss widely the possible adjustment mechanisms before forming such unions; one potential measure being the sharing of external risks at regional level
    Keywords: Current account imbalances, Exchange rate regime, Bayesian model averaging, Sub-Saharan Africa.
    JEL: F32 F33 C11
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2014-22&r=mon
  18. By: Michael Bleaney; Mo Tian
    Abstract: A new and easily implemented regression method is proposed for distinguishing floating from pegged regimes, whilst simultaneously identifying anchors of pegged currencies. The method can distinguish pegs with occasional devaluations from floats, and can be used to generate annual regime classifications. The method largely confirms the accuracy of the IMF’s de facto classification, but also shows that a significant minority of managed floats is close to being US dollar pegs. Even flexible managed floats have a strong tendency to track the US dollar.
    Keywords: exchange rates, currency pegs, trade JEL codes: F31
    Date: 2014–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notecp:14/02&r=mon
  19. By: Peiwen Bai; Wenli Cheng
    Abstract: With the help of a simple model this paper formulates a hypothesis that a monetary expansion in the Chinese context of a segmented labor market has the effect of widening the wage gap between state and non-state workers. We argue that the reason for the increase in wage differential is that SOEs are in a privileged position to receive new money first which means the wage rate of SOE workers are raised first. It is only after the new money reaches the non-state sector via spending, does the wage rate of non-state workers rise with a delay and probably to a lesser extent. Our empirical analysis based on 10 sectors in China over the period 1990 to 2011 supports our hypothesis.
    Keywords: monetary expansion, labor market segmentation, wage differential between state and non-state workers in China
    JEL: E51 J31
    Date: 2014–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2014-01&r=mon
  20. By: Marco Veronese Passarella (University of Leeds); Malcolm Sawyer (University of Leeds)
    Abstract: The relationships between financial systems and the macroeconomy with emphasis on the saving—investment relationships and the nature of money are set out. A ‘circuitist’ framework is extended to reflect some major features of the era of financialisation since circa 1980
    Keywords: monetary circuit, financialisation, saving, investment
    JEL: E44 G20
    Date: 2014–01–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper18&r=mon
  21. By: Galina Hale; Maurice Obstfeld
    Abstract: Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members had an effect on both sets of countries. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. The result has been asset-price bubbles and collapses in some of the peripheral countries, area-wide banking crisis, and sovereign debt problems. We analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro’s introduction, Core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery.
    JEL: F32 F34 F36
    Date: 2014–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20033&r=mon
  22. By: Daniel Detzer (Berlin School of Economics and Law, and Institute for International Political Economy Berlin (IPE)); Hansjorg Herr (Berlin School of Economics and Law, and Institute for International Political Economy Berlin (IPE))
    Abstract: This paper analyses financial crises from a theoretical point of view. For this it reviews what different schools of economic thought have to say about financial crises. It examines first the approaches that regard financial crises as a disturbing factor of a generally stable real economy (Wicksell, Hayek, Schumpeter, Fisher, and the early Keynes). Thereafter, approaches, where the dichotomy between the monetary and the real sphere is lifted are reviewed. Here in particular the later works of Keynes and the contributions of Minsky are of importance. Lastly, it is looked at the behavioural finance approaches. After having reviewed the different approaches it is examined, where those approaches have similarities and where they fruitfully can be combined. Based on this, we develop an own theoretical framework methodologically based on a Wicksellian cumulative process, however, overcoming the neoclassical dichotomy. The paper ends with some policy recommendations based on the developed theoretical framework.
    Keywords: Financial crisis, crisis theory, behavioral finance, Hayek, Keynes, Minsky, Schumpeter, Wicksell
    JEL: E12 E13 G01
    Date: 2014–02–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper25&r=mon
  23. By: Asonuma, Tamon
    Abstract: Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign currencies, and endogenous determination of real exchange rate and default risk. Our quantitative analysis, using the case of Argentina�s default in 2001, replicates the link between real exchange rate depreciation and default probability around defaults and moments of the real exchange rate that match the data. Prior to default, interactions of real exchange rate depreciation, originated from a sequence of low tradable goods shocks with the sovereign�s large share of foreign currency debt, trigger defaults. In post-default periods, the resulting output costs and loss of market access due to default lead to further real exchange rate depreciation.
    Keywords: Sovereign defaults; External debt; Real exchange rate; Currency composition of debt;
    JEL: E43 F32 F34 G12
    Date: 2014–03–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55133&r=mon
  24. By: Plosser, Charles I. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: "Enhancing Prudential Standards in Financial Regulations," cohosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, and the Journal of Financial Services Research. Philadelphia, PA. President Plosser explores simplicity in regulatory rules, transparency in financial instruments, and the role of market forces in controlling risk-taking and enhancing supervision.
    Keywords: Financial stability; Regulatory reform; Transparency; Financial regulations; Financial intermediation; Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010
    Date: 2014–04–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:97&r=mon

This nep-mon issue is ©2014 by Bernd Hayo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.