nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2012‒11‒17
twenty-six papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-University Marburg

  1. Signaling effects of monetary policy By Leonardo Melosi
  2. The Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done By Daniel L. Thornton
  3. Liquidity Traps and the Price (In)Determinacy of Monetary Rules By Eagle, David M
  4. Debt-Deflation versus the Liquidity Trap : the Dilemma of Nonconventional Monetary Policy By Gaël Giraud; Antonin Pottier
  5. Monetary Policy Neutrality: Sign Restrictions Go to Monte Carlo. By Efrem Castelnuovo
  6. Careful price level targeting By Waters , George A.
  7. A model for interest rates near the zero lower bound: An overview and discussion By Leo Krippner
  8. An Empirical Analysis of the Bank Lending Channel in Turkey By Ekin Ayse Ozsuca; Elif Akbostanci
  9. Regional Financial Arrangements and the International Monetary Fund By Eichengreen, Barry
  10. The macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs By Han Chen; Vasco Cúrdia; Andrea Ferrero
  11. Monetary targeting and financial system characteristics: An empirical analysis By Samarina, Anna
  12. Monetary policy, informality and business cycle fluctuations in a developing economy vulnerable to external shocks By Haider, Adnan; Din, Musleh-ud; Ghani, Ejaz
  13. Interest Rate Pass-Through to Turkish Lending Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis By Dilem Yildirim
  14. On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks By Alfred Haug
  15. Extending the Reserve Bank’s macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate By James Graham; Daan Steenkamp
  16. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts By Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace
  17. Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar? By Jason Wong; Bevan Cook
  18. Inequality Aversion and the Long-Run Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Bilateral versus Group Comparison By Steffen Ahrens
  19. The Market Microstructure Approach to Foreign Exchange: Looking Back and Looking Forward By Michael King; Carol Osler; Dagfinn Rime
  20. Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks By Victoria Ivashina; David S. Scharfstein; Jeremy C. Stein
  21. Short- and long-term growth effects of exchange rate adjustment By Evžen Kočenda; Mathilde Maurel; Gunther Schnabl
  22. Is the real effective exchange rate biased against the PPP hypothesis? By Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Wallace, Frederick; Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel
  23. On the new central bank strategy toward monetary and financial instabilities management in finances: Econophysical analysis of nonlinear dynamical financial systems By Dimitri O. Ledenyov; Viktor O. Ledenyov
  24. Adjustment Mechanisms in a Currency Area By C.A.E. Goodhart; D.J. Lee
  25. CPP funds allocation : restoring financial stability or minimising risks of non-repayment to taxpayers ?. By Varvara Isyuk
  26. Modeling credit contagion via the updating of fragile beliefs By Luca Benzoni; Pierre Collin-Dufresne; Robert S. Goldstein; Jean Helwege

  1. By: Leonardo Melosi
    Abstract: We develop a DSGE model in which the policy rate signals the central bank's view about macroeconomic developments to incompletely informed price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set including the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters' expectations. The signaling effects of monetary policy are found to be empirically important and dampen the effects of monetary disturbances on inflation. While the signaling effects enhance the Federal Reserve's ability to stabilize the economy in the face of demand shocks, they play a small role in stabilizing the economy after technology shocks.
    Keywords: Monetary policy ; Federal Reserve System ; Technology - Economic aspects
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Daniel L. Thornton
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the Federal Reserve’s major policy actions in response to the financial crisis. The analysis is divided into the pre-Lehman and post-Lehman monetary policies. Specifically, I describe the pre- and post-Lehman monetary policy actions that I believe were appropriate and those that were not. I then describe the monetary policy actions the Fed should have taken and why those actions would have fostered better financial market and economic outcomes. Had these actions been taken, the Fed’s balance sheet would have returned to normal and the FOMC’s target for the federal funds rate would be a level consistent with a positive real rate and an inflation target of 2 percent.
    Keywords: Federal Reserve banks ; Monetary policy ; Financial crises
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Eagle, David M
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology for assessing price indeterminacy to supplant the discredited nonexplosive criterion. Using this methodology, we find that nominal GDP targeting and price-level targeting do determine prices when the central bank follows a sufficiently strong feedback rule for setting the nominal interest rate. However, inflation targeting leads to price indeterminacy, a result consistent with the principles of calculus. This price indeterminacy of inflation targeting could manifest itself in a liquidity trap or zero bound for nominal interest rates rendering central banks impotent. Nominal GDP targeting could overcome this liquidity-trap effect.
    Keywords: inflation targeting; price-level targeting; nominal GDP inflation targeting; price-level targeting; nominal income targeting; price determinacy; liquidity trap
    JEL: E31 E58 E52
    Date: 2012–11–02
  4. By: Gaël Giraud (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)
    Abstract: This paper examines quantity-targeting monetary policy in a two-period economy with fiat money, endogenously incomplete markets of financial securities, durable goods and production. Short positions in financial assets and long-term loans are backed by collateral, the value of which depends on monetary policy. The decision to default is endogenous and depends on the relative value of the collateral to the loan. We show that Collateral Monetary Equilibria exist and prove there is also a refinement of the Quantity Theory of Money that turns out to be compatible with the long-run non-neutrality of money. Moreover, only three scenarios are compatible with the equilibrium condition : 1) either the economy enters a liquidity trap in the first period ; 2) or a credible ex-pansionary monetary policy accompanies the orderly functioning of markets at the cost of running an inflationary risk ; 3) else the money injected by the Central Bank increases the leverage of indebted investors, fueling a financial bubble whose bursting leads to debt-deflation in the next period with a non-zero probability. This dilemma of monetary policy highlights the default channel affecting trades and production, and provides a rigorous foundation to Fisher's debt deflation theory as being distinct from Keynes' liquidity trap.
    Keywords: Central Bank; liquidity trap; collateral; default; deflation; quantitative easing; debt-deflation.
    Date: 2012–10
  5. By: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova)
    Abstract: A new-Keynesian DSGE model in which contractionary monetary policy shocks generate recessions is estimated with U.S. data. It is then used in a Monte Carlo exercise to generate artificial data with which VARs are estimated. VAR monetary policy shocks are identified via sign restrictions. Our VAR impulse responses replicate UhligÕs (2005, Journal of Monetary Economics) evidence on unexpected interest rate hikes having ambiguous effects on output. The mismatch between the true (DSGE-consistent) responses and those produced with sign-restriction VARs is shown to be due to the low relative strength of the signal of the monetary policy shock. We conclude that UhligÕs (2005) finding is not inconsistent with monetary policy non-neutrality.
    Keywords: Monetary policy shocks, VARs, sign restrictions, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, monetary neutrality.
    JEL: C3 E4 E5
    Date: 2012–10
  6. By: Waters , George A. (Department of Economics, Illinois State University)
    Abstract: This paper examines a class of interest rate rules that respond to public expectations and to lagged variables. Varying levels of commitment correspond to varying degrees of response to lagged output and targeting of the price level. If the response rises (unintentionally) above the optimal level, the outcome deteriorates severely. Hence, the optimal level of commitment is sensitive to the method of expectations formation and partial commitment is the robust, optimal policy.
    Keywords: learning; monetary policy; interest rate rules; commitment; price level targeting
    JEL: D84 E31 E52
    Date: 2012–10–26
  7. By: Leo Krippner (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Abstract: Operating monetary policy when interest rates are already at or near zero comes with many challenges, as many countries have discovered in recent years. One aspect is that, if effective easing beyond a zero policy rate is desired, the policy rate constrained at zero will no longer conveniently summarise the stance of monetary policy and its typical transmission into the yield curve (longer-maturity interest rates) and the economy. In this note, I show how a framework for representing yield curve data in a zero lower bound (ZLB) environment can still allow monetary policy to be conveniently summarised in terms of an effective policy rate.
    Date: 2012–09
  8. By: Ekin Ayse Ozsuca (Department of Economics, Cankaya University); Elif Akbostanci (Department of Economics, METU)
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of banking sector in monetary policy transmission in Turkey covering the period 1988-2009. Specifically, we investigate the impact of monetary policy changes on banks’ lending behavior. Given the changes in the policy stance and developments in the financial system following the implementation of structural reforms in the aftermath of the 2000-01 crisis, the analysis is further conducted for the two sub-periods: 1988-2001 and 2002-2009, to examine whether there is a change in the functioning of the credit channel. Based on bank-level data, empirical evidence suggests cross sectional heterogeneity in banks’ response to monetary policy changes during 1988-2009. Regarding the results of the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, we find that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1988-2001, however its impact became much stronger thereafter. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the distributional effects due to bank specific characteristics in the impact of monetary policy on credit supply between the two sub-periods. While the results indicate an operative bank lending channel due to earnings capability and asset quality in the first period, size, liquidity, capitalization, asset quality and managerial efficiency seem to make a difference in the lending responses of banks to monetary policy in 2002-2009.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Transmission Mechanisms; Bank lending channel; Turkey; Panel Data
    JEL: C23 E44 E51 E52 G21
    Date: 2012–08
  9. By: Eichengreen, Barry (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The rise of regional monetary arrangements poses a challenge for the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global surveillance efforts. This paper reviews how the IMF has responded to earlier regional initiatives, from the European Payments Union of the 1950s and the Gold Pool of the 1960s to the CFA franc zone and the European Monetary System. The penultimate section draws out the implications for monetary regionalism in East Asia.
    Keywords: international monetary fund; regional monetary arrangements; global surveillance; european monetary system
    JEL: F30 F53 F55
    Date: 2012–11–06
  10. By: Han Chen; Vasco Cúrdia; Andrea Ferrero
    Abstract: We simulate the Federal Reserve second Large-Scale Asset Purchase program in a DSGE model with bond market segmentation estimated on U.S. data. GDP growth increases by less than a third of a percentage point and inflation barely changes relative to the absence of intervention. The key reasons behind our findings are small estimates for both the elasticity of the risk premium to the quantity of long-term debt and the degree of financial market segmentation. Absent the commitment to keep the nominal interest rate at its lower bound for an extended period, the effects of asset purchase programs would be even smaller.
    Keywords: Open market operations ; Monetary policy
    Date: 2012
  11. By: Samarina, Anna (Groningen University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how reforms and characteristics of the financial system affect the likelihood of countries to abandon their strategy of monetary targeting. Apart from financial system characteristics, we include macroeconomic, fiscal, and institutional factors potentially associated with countries? choices to give up monetary targeting. Panel logit models are estimated on a sample of 35 monetary targeting countries over the period 1975-2009. The findings suggest that financial liberalization, deregulation, and development as well as dollarization significantly increase the likelihood to abandon monetary targeting. Additionally, more developed countries with lower inflation and larger fiscal deficits are more likely to quit this monetary strategy. However, the financial determinants of abandoning monetary targeting differ between advanced and emerging and developing countries.
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Haider, Adnan; Din, Musleh-ud; Ghani, Ejaz
    Abstract: This paper develops an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on New-Keynesian micro-foundations. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exporters, foreign capital inflow in terms of foreign direct investment and oil imports, this model also incorporates informal labor and production sectors. This customization intensifies the exposure of a developing economy to internal and external shocks in a manner consistent with the stylized facts of Business Cycle Fluctuations. We then focus on optimal monetary policy analysis by evaluating alternative interest rate rules and calibrate the model using data from Pakistan economy. The learning and determinacy analysis suggest monetary authority in developing economies to follow Taylor principle in large and to put some weight on exchange rate fluctuations even if there is relatively less inertia in the setting of policy interest rate.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Informal Economy; Business Cycles; DSGE
    JEL: E32 E52 E26 E37
    Date: 2012–10–14
  13. By: Dilem Yildirim
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the actual nature of the interest rate pass-through to Turkish cash, automobile, housing and corporate loan rates. Focusing on the possibility of nonlinearity in the adjustment of lending rates due to financial market conditions and monetary policies, we adopt the threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) models of Enders and Siklos (2001). Empirical results suggest substantial asymmetries (nonlinearities) in all lending rates. More specifically, banks adjust their lending rates faster in response to increases in negative discrepancies from the long-run equilibrium arising from an increase in the money market rate, while they act slowly following money market rate decreases. Furthermore, the degree of reluctance of banks to follow money market rate decreases appears to vary across lending rates, suggesting the existence of sectoral heterogeneities besides asymmetries.
    Keywords: Interest Rate Transmission, Lending Rates, Threshold Cointegration
    JEL: C22 C51 G21
    Date: 2012–09
  14. By: Alfred Haug (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)
    Abstract: The role of structural breaks in long spans of ex-post real interest rates for ten industrialized countries is studied. First, the persistence of the real interest is assessed with newly proposed low-frequency tests of M¨uller and Watson (2008). Second, the test of Leybourne et al. (2007) for a change in persistence of a time-series is applied to the real interest rate. The results show that real interest rates over the full sample period do not fit a covariance-stationary or unit-root model, nor a fractionally-integrated, near-unit-root or local-level model. The persistence of real rates changes and there are periods when the real rate is covariance stationary and other periods when it follows a unit root process instead. Also, the breaks reflect structural changes in the inflation rate, which are likely due to changes in monetary policy regimes.
    Keywords: Real interest rates, persistence of a time series, breaks in persistence
    JEL: E43 C22
    Date: 2012–11–06
  15. By: James Graham; Daan Steenkamp (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Abstract: The exchange rate matters a lot in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank uses several different models, each imprecise, to analyse it. This note focuses on just one of those approaches: the macro-balance model of the exchange rate. We use that model to estimate the exchange rate which, if sustained, would stabilise at around current levels the negative net international investment position (as a percentage of GDP). The sensitivity of the model estimates to some of the key assumptions is illustrated.
    Date: 2012–10
  16. By: Peter Tulip (Reserve Bank of Australia); Stephanie Wallace (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.
    Keywords: forecast errors; confidence intervals
    JEL: E17 E27 E37
    Date: 2012–11
  17. By: Jason Wong; Bevan Cook (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Abstract: This note analyses the relationship between actual and expected Official Cash Rate (OCR) changes and subsequent exchange rate movements. It concludes that there has been a weak positive relationship between OCR changes (or expected changes) and the currency, but that this only applies over very short time periods. Many variables affect the New Zealand exchange rate and previous research has suggested that there are much more dominant drivers of the currency than interest rates, such as commodity prices.
    Date: 2012–10
  18. By: Steffen Ahrens
    Abstract: In this paper we incorporate the two most prominent approaches of inequality aversion, i.e. Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and Bolton and Ockenfels (2000) into an otherwise standard New Keynesian macro model and compare them with respect to their influence on the long-run effectiveness of monetary policy. We find that the choice for Fehr and Schmidt or Bolton and Ockenfels like preferences is of importance only for the quantitative - but not the qualitative - effectiveness of monetary policy in the long-run
    Keywords: price stickiness, long-run Phillips curve, inequality aversion
    JEL: D03 E20 E31 E50
    Date: 2012–11
  19. By: Michael King (Ivey Business School, University of Western Ontario); Carol Osler (International Business School, Brandeis University); Dagfinn Rime (Norges Bank)
    Abstract: Looking back, 30 years of research on foreign exchange (FX) market microstructure reveals that order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information are crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data surprisingly well. But currency markets are evolving rapidly in response to new electronic trading technologies. Transparency has risen, trading costs have tumbled, and transaction speed has accelerated as new players have entered the market and existing players have modified their behavior. These changes will have profound effects on exchange rate dynamics. Looking forward, we highlight fundamental yet unanswered questions on the nature of private information, the impact on market liquidity, and the changing process of price discovery. We also outline potential microstructure explanations for long-standing exchange rate puzzles.
    Keywords: Exchange rates, Market microstructure, Information, Liquidity, Electronic trading
    JEL: F31 G12 G15 C42 C82
    Date: 2012–10
  20. By: Victoria Ivashina; David S. Scharfstein; Jeremy C. Stein
    Abstract: A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale dollar funding, while raising more of their euro funding through insured retail deposits, the shock leads to a greater withdrawal of dollar funding. Banks can borrow in euros and swap into dollars to make up for the dollar shortfall, but this may lead to violations of covered interest parity (CIP) when there is limited capital to take the other side of the swap trade. In this case, synthetic dollar borrowing becomes expensive, which causes cuts in dollar lending. We test the model in the context of the Eurozone sovereign crisis, which escalated in the second half of 2011 and resulted in U.S. money-market funds sharply reducing the funding provided to European banks. Coincident with the contraction in dollar funding, there were significant violations of euro-dollar CIP. Moreover, dollar lending by Eurozone banks fell relative to their euro lending in both the U.S. and Europe; this was not the case for U.S. global banks. Finally, European banks that were more reliant on money funds experienced bigger declines in dollar lending.
    JEL: F36 F44 G01 G21
    Date: 2012–11
  21. By: Evžen Kočenda (CERGE-EI - Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne); Gunther Schnabl (University of Leipzig - Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: During the European sovereing debt crisis the discussion concerning the pros and cons of exchange rate adjustment in the face of asymmetric shocks was revived. Whereas one side has recommended (in the spirit of Keynes) the exist from the euro area to regain rapidly international competitiveness, exchange rate stability cum structural reforms have been argued (in the spirit of Schumpeter) to be a beneficial long-term strategy towards the reanimation of a robust growth performance. Previous literature has estimated the average growth of countries with different degrees of exhange rate volatility. We augment this literature by econometrically separating between the short-term and long-term growth effects of exchange rate volatility based on a panel-cointegration framework for a sample of 60 countries clustered in five country groups. The estimations show that countries with a low degree of exchange rate volatility exhibit a higher long-term growth performance, whereas over the short-run exchange rate flexibility provides some benefits. In line with Mundell (1961) we show that the degree of business cycle synchronization with the (potential) anchor country matters for the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth.
    Keywords: Exchange rate regime; crisis; shock adjustment; theory of optimum currency areas; Mundell; Schumpeter; cointegration, competitive depreciations.
    Date: 2012–10
  22. By: Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Wallace, Frederick; Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel
    Abstract: We show that the use of the real effective exchange rate to test for purchasing power parity, as in Astorga (2012) and other studies, introduces a bias against finding evidence of PPP. The bias is illustrated using unit root tests applied to bilateral real rates.
    Keywords: PPP; real effective exchange rate; stationarity
    JEL: C22 F31
    Date: 2012–09–29
  23. By: Dimitri O. Ledenyov; Viktor O. Ledenyov
    Abstract: We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital markets. We use the integrative thinking approach to formulate the new central bank strategy and propose that the new strategy has to be focused on the constant management of the monetary and financial instabilities, using the knowledge base in the field of econophysics. We propose the new theoretical model of economics, which is called the Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NDSGE), which takes to the account the nonlinearities, appearing during the interaction between the business cycles. We show that the central banks, which will apply the knowledge gained from the econophysical analysis to understand the complex processes in the national financial systems in the time of high volatility in global capital markets, will be able to govern the national financial systems successfully.
    Date: 2012–11
  24. By: C.A.E. Goodhart; D.J. Lee
    Abstract: Both the euro-area and the United States suffered an initially quite similar housing and financial shock in 2007/8, with several states in both regions being particularly badly affected. Yet there was never any question that the worst hit US states would need a special bail-out or leave the dollar area, whereas such concerns have worsened in the euro-area. We focus on three badly affected states, Arizona, Spain and Latvia, to examine the working of relative adjustment mechanisms within the currency region. We concentrate on four such mechanisms, relative wage adjustment, migration, net fiscal flows and bank flows. Only in Latvia was there any relative wage adjustment. Intra-EU migration has increased, but is more costly for those involved in the EU (than in the USA). Net federal financing helped Arizona and Latvia in the crisis, but not Spain. The locally focussed structure of banking amplified the crisis in Spain, whereas the role of out-of-state banks eased adjustment in Arizona and Latvia. The latter reinforces the case for an EU banking union.
    Date: 2012–11
  25. By: Varvara Isyuk (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to liquidity shortage through compulsory loan guarantee scheme and bank recapitalisations mainly under Capital Purchase Program (CPP) for commercial banks. The bailout packages provided under CPP seem to be efficient in responding to the liquidity crisis subject to large banks that contributed the most to systemic risk. However, smaller banks that were actually exposed to the mortgage market and non-performing loans were denied the financial aid or received CPP funds of a relatively smaller size. Such CPP funds allocation was efficient from the point of view of taxpayer as the probability of bailout non-repayments was minimised. However, it did not support real estate loan recapitalisations that could become a reason of large welfare loses for the homeowners.
    Keywords: Bailouts, bank recapitalisation, CPP funds, systemic risk.
    JEL: E52 E58 G21
    Date: 2012–09
  26. By: Luca Benzoni; Pierre Collin-Dufresne; Robert S. Goldstein; Jean Helwege
    Abstract: We propose a tractable equilibrium model for pricing defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with ‘fragile beliefs’ are uncertain about both the underlying state of the economy and the posterior probabilities associated with these states. As such, agents adopt a robust decision rule for updating that leads them to over-weight the posterior probabilities of ‘bad’ states. We estimate the model using panel data on sovereign Euro-zone CDS spreads during the recent crisis, and find that it captures levels and dynamics of spreads better than traditional affine models with the same number of observable and latent state variables.
    Keywords: Bonds - Prices ; Europe - Economic conditions ; Eurozone
    Date: 2012

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