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on Monetary Economics |
| By: | Ziegler, Christina |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy in CEE is an important determinant in the wage bargaining process, because trade unions have to predict inflation as one component of future real wages. This paper scrutinizes whether countries in CEE that officially announce an inflation target are tempted to act time-inconsistently and switch from the announced inflation target to an exchange rate target in order to sustain higher output via surprise inflation. If market participants discover the time-inconsistency, they will adjust their inflation expectations, which result in higher average rates of price increases. The time-inconsistent behavior in central bank interest rate setting is modeled by several Taylor rules. An empirical application provides evidence that some monetary authorities in CEE such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia have acted timeinconsistent and have focused on the exchange rate in periods of official inflation targeting, which might have contributed to higher average rates of inflation and welfare losses. Furthermore, uncertainty in wage determination process has risen due to a harder predictability of productivity and inflation as components of future nominal wages. -- |
| Keywords: | monetary policy,Taylor rules,exchange rate regime,Central and Eastern Europe,inflation targeting |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F31 O52 P20 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:leiwps:104&r=mon |
| By: | Mavromatis, Konstantinos (Department of Economics, University of Warwick and Warwick Business School, Finance Group,) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I show, using both empirical and theoretical analysis, that changes in monetary policy in one country can have important e.ects on other economies. My ew empirical evidence shows that changes in the monetary policy behaviour of the Fed since the start of the Euro, well captured by a Markov-switching Taylor rule, have had significant e.ects on the behaviour of inflation and output in the Eurozone even though ECB’s monetary policy is found to be fairly stable. Using a two-country DSGE model, I examine this case theoretically; monetary policy in one of the countries (labelled foreign) switches regimes according to a Markov-switching process and this has nonnegligible e.ects in the other (home) country. Switching by the foreign central bank renders commitment to a time invariant interest rate rule suboptimal for the home central bank. This is because home agents expectations change as foreign monetary policy changes which a.ects the dynamics of home inflation and output. Optimal policy in the home country instead reacts to the regime of the foreign monetary policy and so implies a time-varying reaction of the home Central Bank. Following this time-varying optimal policy at home eliminates the e.ects in the home country of foreign regime shifts, and also reduces dramatically the e.ects in the foreign country. Therefore, changes in foreignmonetary regimes should not be neglected in considering monetary policy at home. Key words: Markov-switching DSGE ; Optimal monetary policy ; Dynamic programming ;SVAR ; real-time data. JEL Classification: E52 ; F41 ; F42. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:982&r=mon |
| By: | Peter J. Morgan (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | The adoption of quantitative easing (QE) policy by the United States (US) Federal Reserve Bank since early 2009 has aroused widespread concerns in Asia and elsewhere regarding its possible impact in terms of the weakening of the US dollar and stimulating capital outflows to emerging economies that might increase inflationary pressures in them. This report investigates possible impacts of US quantitative easing policy on Asian economies and financial markets. Our basic approach is to take the period of November 2009–October 2010, when no quantitative easing took place, as a baseline period against which we can compare the effects of quantitative easing on monetary flows during the “QE1†and “QE2†periods. We estimate that about 40% of the increase in the US monetary base in the QE1 period leaked out in the form of increased gross private capital outflows and about one-third leaked out during the first two quarters of the QE2 period. An excess private financial capital inflow to Emerging Asia of $9 billion per quarter was estimated for the first two quarters of the QE2 period, which was relatively consistent with the estimated amounts of the excess increases in foreign exchange reserves and the monetary base in the region during that period. However, this amount is small, and hence was unlikely to have a significant impact on financial markets, economic activity or inflation. We also investigate the impacts of QE policy on regional bond yields and exchange rates using event window analysis, and find that the greatest impacts were a stronger Korean won and lower bond yields in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | financial markets, capital outflows, quantitative easing, the US, Emerging Asia |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23215&r=mon |
| By: | Stephen Grenville (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | The Impossible Trinity doctrine still holds a powerful sway over policymakers, advisors (particularly the International Monetary Fund [IMF]) and academia. In East Asia over the past decade, however, most countries have been able to maintain open capital markets, monetary policy independence, and a fair degree of management over their exchange rates. This is because the Impossible Trinity model does not fit the actual circumstances very closely. Capital flows are dominated by factors other than interest differentials, external inflows have been successfully sterilized, the connection between base money and monetary policy settings is not close, and the authorities’ management of the exchange rates has been aimed at keeping the rate close to the medium-term equilibrium, not susceptible to speculators. This is not to deny that there are difficult policy issues in the interaction between capital inflows, monetary policy, and the exchange rate. These interactions do in fact make good policymaking very challenging. The key problem is that the Wicksellian “natural†interest rate will differ quite substantially between developing and mature countries, presenting a structural problem rather than the cyclical problem envisaged in the Impossible Trinity. Rather than base the policy mind-set on the Impossible Trinity, it would be better to have in mind something along the lines of the Williamson band/basket/crawl and a notion of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | impossible trinity, East Asia, capital flows |
| JEL: | F21 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23217&r=mon |
| By: | Peter Bofinger |
| Abstract: | The discussion on exchange rate policy is dominated by the so-called “impossible trinity”. According to this principle an autonomous monetary policy, a control over the exchange rate and free capital movements cannot be achieved simultaneously. In this paper, a strategy of managed floating is developed that allows transforming the “impossible trinity” into a “possible trinity”. If a central bank targets an exchange rate path which is determined by uncovered interest parity (UIP), it can at the same time set its policy rate autonomously. As a UIP path removes the incentives for carry-trade, it is also compatible with capital mobility. The approach can be used unilaterally to prevent carry trade as a central bank can always prevent an appreciation of its currency. But it can also be applied bilaterally or multilaterally. Successful examples are the European Monetary System and the exchange rate policy of Slovenia before its EMU membership. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unc:dispap:204&r=mon |
| By: | Yung Chul Park (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Chi-Young Song |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the exchange rate policy of the Republic of Korea, and its role in promoting financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. The Republic of Korea would not actively participate in any discussion of establishing a regional monetary and exchange rate arrangement as it is expected to maintain a weakly managed floating regime. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been fostering the yuan as an international currency, which will lay the groundwork for forming a yuan area among the PRC; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations JEL Classification : F3, F4 (ASEAN); Hong Kong, China; the PRC; and Taipei,China. Japan has shown less interest in assuming a greater role in East Asia’s economic integration due to deflation, a strong yen, slow growth, and political instability. Japan would not eschew free floating. These recent developments demand a new modality of monetary cooperation among the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the PRC. Otherwise, ASEAN+3 will lose its rationale for steering regional economic integration in East Asia. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate policy, Monetary cooperation, financial cooperation, Republic of Korea, East Asia |
| JEL: | F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23222&r=mon |
| By: | Matthias Morys |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a new data set of monthly observations, this paper investigates similarities and differences in discount rate policy of 12 European countries under the Classical Gold Standard; it asks, in particular, whether bank rate policy followed different patterns in core and peripheral countries. Based on OLS, ordered probit and pooled estimations of central bank discount rate behaviour, two main findings emerge: first, the discount rate decisions of core countries were motivated by keeping the exchange-rate within the gold points. In stark contrast, the discount rate decisions of peripheral countries reflected changes in the domestic cover ratio. The main reason for the different behaviour was the limited effectiveness of the discount rate tool for peripheral countries which resulted in more frequent gold point violations. Consequently, peripheral countries relied on high reserve levels and oriented their discount rate policy towards maintaining the reserve level. Second, interest rate decisions were influenced by Berlin and London to a similar degree, suggesting that the European branch of the Classical Gold Standard was less London-centered than hitherto assumed. In establishing general patterns of discount rate policy, this paper aims to contribute to the wider question of monetary policy under the gold standard and the core-periphery dichotomy. |
| Keywords: | gold standard, rules of the game, balance-of-payment adjustment, central banking |
| JEL: | E4 E5 E6 F3 N13 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:cherry:12/02&r=mon |
| By: | Ramkishen S. Rajan (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia. It is divided into two main parts. The first part compares de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes in Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement towards somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. However, the propensity for foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate management among regional central banks remains fairly high in many instances. Beyond a general reluctance of many Asian economies to allow for a “benign neglect†of their currencies both in terms of managing volatility as well as in terms of “leaning against the wind,†the sustained stockpiling of reserves in developing and emerging Asian economies since 2000 (interrupted only briefly by the global financial crisis) suggests that they are more sensitive to exchange rate appreciations than to depreciations. This is the focus of the second part of the paper. We find there to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation†which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation). The paper concludes with a few observations on the management of Asian currencies in light of the global financial crisis and concerns about global imbalances. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate regime, emerging Asia, global financial crisis, foreign exchange intervention, central bank |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23214&r=mon |
| By: | Bianca De Paoli; Pawel Zabczyk |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite affect households' propensity to save. It uses a New-Keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justifies an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent, adverse disturbances. Equally, policy should be more restrictive - i.e. `lean against the wind' - following positive shocks. Since the size of these `risk-adjustments' is increasing in the degree of macroeconomic volatility, ignoring this channel could lead to larger policy errors in turbulent times - with good luck translating into good policy. |
| Keywords: | precautionary saving, monetary policy, cyclical risk aversion, macro-finance, non-linearities |
| JEL: | E32 G12 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1132&r=mon |
| By: | Mario Lamberte (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Peter J. Morgan |
| Abstract: | The increasing occurrence of national, regional, and global financial crises, together with their rising costs and complexity, have increased calls for greater regional and global monetary cooperation. This is particularly necessary in light of volatile capital flow movements that can quickly transmit crisis developments in individual countries to other countries around the world. Global financial safety nets (GFSNs) are one important area for monetary cooperation. This paper reviews the current situation of regional and global monetary cooperation, focusing on financial safety nets, with a view toward developing recommendations for more effective cooperation, especially between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and regional financial arrangements (RFAs). A GFSN should have adequate resources to deal with multiple crises, should be capable of rapid and flexible response, and should not be encumbered by historical impediments such as the IMF stigma that would limit its acceptance by recipient countries. Oversight of a GFSN needs to be based on cooperation between global and regional forums, for example, the G20 and ASEAN+3 or East Asia Summit (EAS). Such a GFSN should include the IMF and RFAs at a minimum, and it is highly recommended to find ways to include central banks as providers of swap lines and multilateral banks as well. The basic principles governing the cooperation of IMF and RFAs include rigorous and even-handed surveillance; respect of independence and decision-making processes of each institution and regional specificities; ongoing collaboration as a way to build regional capacity for crisis prevention; open sharing of information and joint missions where necessary; specialization based on comparative advantage; consistency of lending conditions and conditionality, although with flexibility; respect of the IMF as preferred creditor; subsidiarity; avoidance of moral hazard; and transparency. |
| Keywords: | regional, global, Monetary cooperation, ASEAN |
| JEL: | F33 F34 F36 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:financ:23190&r=mon |
| By: | Raphael Anton Auer |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the effect of the government-controlled appreciation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-à-vis the USD from 2005 to 2008 on the prices charged by US producers. As the RMB during that time was pegged to a basket of currencies, the empirical strategy must account for the fact that the currencies included in the basket may have directly affected US prices. Thus, the pre-2005 period is used to filter out the effects of other exchange rates on import and producer prices. Additionally, utilizing the remainder of the sample, the pure effect of an RMB appreciation on US import prices and, in turn, the effect of RMB-induced US import price fluctuations on US producer prices is established. In a panel spanning the period from 1994 to 2010 and including 417 manufacturing sectors, the main finding emerging from this empirical strategy is that import prices pass into producer prices at an average rate of 0.7. This finding supports the view that the markets for domestic and imported manufactured goods are well integrated. Consequently, even if the exchange rate affects import prices only to a small extent, it may have a substantial impact on inflation, as it exerts a sizeable impact on the competitive environment of domestic producers and the prices that they charge. |
| Keywords: | Price Complementarities, Exchange Rate Pass Through, China, Inflation, Markups |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F14 F15 F16 F40 E31 L16 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2012-01&r=mon |
| By: | Reza Siregar (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | New lessons, challenges, and debates have emerged from the subprime crisis in the United States. While the macroeconomic orientation is not new and has always been among the classic toolkits of central banks for ensuring financial stability, the current explicit articulation and specification of such a tool as a global standard is new. The objective of this study is to review and analyze the steps taken by the central banks and monetary authorities of select Asian countries to strengthen their prudential regulations, mainly the macro-prudential component of such regulations. |
| Keywords: | Banking Regulation, Macro-prudential approache, prudential regulations, Financial Stability, central banks, Asia |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G28 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23211&r=mon |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper takes stock of recent research dealing with the degree to which the trilemma choices of Asian countries facilitated a smoother adjustment during the global crisis of 2008– 2009, and the way the region has been coping with the adjustment to the postcrisis challenges. We point out that emerging Asia has converged to a middle ground of the trilemma configuration : limited financial integration, a degree of monetary independence, and controlled exchange rate buffered by sizable international reserves. This configuration, with the proper management of balance sheet exposure and public finances, facilitated a smoother adjustment of emerging Asia to the crisis, and was instrumental in inducing the rapid resumption of growth. The swings of financial flows, from large deleveraging of foreign positions in 2008 to the renewed inflows in 2010, validate the insight of the public finance approach to financial integration : the gains from deeper financial integration should be balanced against the costs of growing exposure to turbulences. A key lesson of the crisis is the need to apply a comprehensive cost/benefit approach to prudential policies, to the regulation of external borrowing and of domestic financial intermediation, and to the accumulation and use of international reserves. We illustrate these results in the context of the challenges facing emerging Asia’s adjustment during the global financial crisis, and the postcrisis policy stance dealing with the renewed inflows of capital. |
| Keywords: | Financial Stability, emerging Asia, financial integration, monetary independence, controlled exchange |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23219&r=mon |
| By: | Natasha Hamilton-Hart (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | Since the financial crises of 1997, East Asia has made modest but nonetheless significant steps towards greater regional integration and cooperation in the areas of finance and trade, accompanied by progress on institution-building at the regional level. Monetary cooperation, however, has not proceeded to anything like even the modest levels registered for other functional areas of cooperation. This paper investigates this discrepancy. It asks whether monetary cooperation is simply an unattractive proposition because it promises fewer net gains than cooperation on other issues, or whether there are other explanations for the absence of monetary cooperation in the region. Based on a review of estimates of the aggregate economic gains and losses arising from monetary cooperation, the paper argues that there is a prima facie puzzle to be explained : monetary cooperation does hold out the prospect of real gains and, although these gains are not cost-free, neither is the status quo. The paper then turns to the domestic level of the major East Asian countries, in order to assess the relative strength of the domestic economic interests that are likely to be either advocates or opponents of monetary cooperation. It shows that domestic distributional politics—the processes by which gains and losses within countries are distributed—are a plausible reason for the low priority placed on regional monetary cooperation to date. International-level political concerns and the potential supply of institutional solutions to collective action problems are additional reasons for the lack of monetary cooperation, but the domestic demand for such cooperation is analytically prior to these more conventional explanations for the lack of cooperation in East Asia. |
| Keywords: | Regional Integration, regional cooperation, Monetary cooperation |
| JEL: | E5 F3 F5 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23204&r=mon |
| By: | Nobuaki Yamashita (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how an appreciation of the currency of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—renminbi—affects the country’s exports in the context of production fragmentation, using a panel data set of the PRC’s trade for 1992/93–2008/09. It constructs two exchange rates for renminbi : one is a bilateral real exchange rate and the other is a real effective exchange rate against East Asian component suppliers. It is found that appreciation of the renminbi would somewhat offset a reduction in the volume of the PRC’s exports induced by lower importing costs of components. Hence, evidence casts further doubts on the efficacy of further unilateral reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime on correcting trade imbalances. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, renminbi, production fragmentation, the PRC |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F31 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23209&r=mon |
| By: | Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro |
| Abstract: | The financial systems in emerging market economies during the 2008–09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes, albeit with significant differences across regions. For example, real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and the bank levels that contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies, measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular, we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy’s capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy’s overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short-term debt). The quality of pre-crisis credit growth mattered as much as its rate of expansion. Credit expansions that preserved healthy balance sheet measures (the “quality” dimension) proved to be more sustainable. Variables signalling the capacity to set countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis were also important determinants. Moreover, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity and bank efficiency, also played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks which had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit most. The methodology used in this paper includes the construction of indicators of resilience of real credit growth to adverse external shocks in a large number of emerging markets, not just in Latin America. As additional data become available, these indicators could be part of a set of analytical tools to assess how emerging market economies are preparing themselves to cope with the adverse effects of global financial turbulence on real credit growth. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, credit growth, global financial crisis, emerging markets, financial resilience, vulnerability indicators |
| JEL: | E65 G2 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:289&r=mon |
| By: | Gregory Chin (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolving dynamics between economic globalization and Asian regional interdependence, and asks whether and how the global financial crisis impacted Asian regionalism. The analysis suggests that the global crisis did trigger advances in regional policy cooperation from 2007 onwards, especially in the area of financial and monetary cooperation. Although the first order response of Asian countries was to join the broader global effort to contain financial freefall at the world level, there emerged a second order response at the level of regional institutional building, specifically to “multilateralize†the Chiang Mai Initiative, and to develop a regional trust fund to help strengthen Asian bond markets. This finding reconfirms the theoretical proposition in historical institutionalism that financial crises have a catalytic effect in stimulating regional innovation. At the same time, we see evolution in the pattern of Asian regionalism in two respects : first, the recent advances in Asian regionalism are being driven primarily, at this stage, by the rise of the PRC and India—although each in their own way, and to varying degrees. The current advance in regionalism also builds on momentum provided by pre-existing programs of regional financial cooperation, namely the Chiang Mai Initiative, and “regional connectivity†programs that have also been championed by Japan and ASEAN countries, such as the GMS, CAREC, and BIMSTEC initiatives. Second, Asian economies appear to be pursuing inclusive regionalism, which attempts to strike a balance between helping themselves and helping the global economy. Asia is striving for modes of regional cooperation that are, on balance, complementary with the current global macroeconomic rebalancing agenda of the G20, and supportive of global integration and openness. The main policy findings are that Asia’s future standing in an increasingly multi-centered world economy will be determined by its effectiveness in advancing a multi-layered international cooperation agenda. Yet achieving such international gains will depend on Asia’s willingness to make serious advances in regional collective action and global leadership, especially in areas of financial and monetary cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Economic Globalization, Asian regionalism, Asian regional interdependence, global financial crisis, regional cooperation |
| JEL: | F15 F33 F36 F51 F53 F55 F59 H87 O53 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:23193&r=mon |
| By: | Andrew Hughes Hallett (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issue of international payments in a stock-flow framework, by capturing the interaction between the current account balance and international assets portfolios of domestic and foreign investors. It is argued that the stability of such interaction may be affected by shifts in the preferences of investors, by the relative rate of return of different assets, and—more in general—by institutional settings. The model is then used for policy analysis purposes to derive the conditions for the existence of dynamic equilibria, and if they can be attained, under the assumption of market-distorting policy choices. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, current account balance, Applied General Equilibrium model, capital controls, dynamic equilibria |
| JEL: | F13 F32 F34 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:financ:23206&r=mon |
| By: | Andrew K. Rose (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the causes of the 2008–2009 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. The analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 economies; I focus on international financial linkages that may have both allowed the crisis to spread across economies, and/or provided insurance. The model of the cross-economy incidence of the crisis combines 2008–2009 changes in real gross domestic product (GDP), the stock market, economy credit ratings, and the exchange rate. The key domestic determinants of crisis incidence that I consider are taken from the literature, and are measured in 2006 : real GDP per capita; the degree of credit market regulation; and the current account, measured as a fraction of GDP. Above and beyond these three national sources of crisis vulnerability, I add a number of measures of both multilateral and bilateral financial linkages to investigate the effects of international financial integration on crisis incidence. I ask three questions, with a special focus on Asian economies. First, did the degree of an economy’s multilateral financial integration help explain its crisis? Second, what about the strength of its bilateral financial ties with the United States and the key Asian economics of the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea? Third, did the presence of a bilateral swap line with the Federal Reserve affect the intensity of an economy’s crisis? I find that neither multilateral financial integration nor the existence of a Fed swap line is correlated with the cross-economy incidence of the crisis. There is mild evidence that economies with stronger bilateral financial ties to the United States (but not the large Asian economies) experienced milder crises. That is, more financially integrated economies do not seem to have suffered more during the most serious macroeconomic crisis in decades. This strengthens the case for international financial integration; if the costs of international financial integration were not great during the Great Recession, when could we ever expect them to be larger? |
| Keywords: | financial integration, financial crisis, financial linkage, Asian economies |
| JEL: | E65 F30 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23195&r=mon |
| By: | David Guerreiro; Marc Joëts; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price dynamics is homogeneous across the Eurozone countries. Relying on monthly data over the January 1970-July 2011 period, we test for the absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis through the implementation of second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. Our results show that price dynamics are heterogeneous depending on both the time period and the considered group of countries. More specifically, while PPP is validated for the core EMU countries, this hypothesis does not hold for Northern peripheral economies. Turning to the Southern countries, PPP is observed only before the launch of the euro. |
| Keywords: | price convergence, Eurozone, panel unit root tests, half-life |
| JEL: | C23 E31 F15 F41 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-4&r=mon |