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on Monetary Economics |
| By: | Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen; Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger; Lex H. Hoogduin |
| Abstract: | Should central banks increase their degree of transparency any further? We show that there is likely to be an optimal intermediate degree of central bank transparency. Up to thisoptimum more transparency is desirable: it improves the quality of private sector inflation forecasts. But beyond the optimum people might: (1) start to attach too much weight tothe conditionality of their forecasts, and/or (2) get confused by the large and increasing amount of information they receive. This deteriorates the (perceived) quality of privatesector inflation forecasts. Inflation then is set in a more backward looking manner resulting in higher inflation persistence. By using a panel data set on the transparency of 100 centralbanks we find empirical support for an optimal intermediate degree of transparency at which inflation persistence is minimized. Our results indicate that while there are central banksthat would benefit from further transparency increases, some might already have reached the limit. |
| Keywords: | central bank transparency; monetary policy; inflation persistence. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:178&r=mon |
| By: | Vasco Curdia (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Michael Woodford (Columbia University - Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We extend the basic (representative-household) New Keynesian [NK] model of the monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interest rate available to savers and borrowers, that can vary for either exogenous or endogenous reasons. We find that the mere existence of a positive average spread makes little quantitative difference for the predicted effects of particular policies. Variation in spreads over time is of greater significance, with consequences both for the equilibrium relation between the policy rate and aggregate expenditure and for the relation between real activity and inflation. Nonetheless, we find that the target criterion - a linear relation that should be maintained between the inflation rate and changes in the output gap - that characterizes optimal policy in the basic NK model continues to provide a good approximation to optimal policy, even in the presence of variations in credit spreads. We also consider a "spread-adjusted Taylor rule," in which the intercept of the Taylor rule is adjusted in proportion to changes in credit spreads. We show that while such an adjustment can improve upon an unadjusted Taylor rule, the optimal degree of adjustment is less than 100 percent; and even with the correct size of adjustment, such a rule of thumb remains inferior to the targeting rule. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clu:wpaper:0809-02&r=mon |
| By: | Mark B. Greenlee |
| Abstract: | The article reviews legislative history and supervisory practices related to bank holding companies with a view toward understanding what Congress meant by referring to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System as the “umbrella supervisor” in the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. The first part of the article looks at the historical development of bank holding company law and regulation, which laid the foundation for the current practice of umbrella supervision. The second part of the article provides answers to questions related to the Board’s current role as umbrella supervisor: What does “umbrella supervision” mean, and is it different from “consolidated supervision”? How does the GLB Act limit the Board's authority and practice and when did the Board obtain all of the legal authority to allow it to practice umbrella supervision? |
| Keywords: | Bank holding companies ; Bank supervision ; Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act ; Banking law |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0807&r=mon |
| By: | A. Prasad; Charles Frederick Kramer; Hélène Poirson |
| Abstract: | The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases. |
| Keywords: | India , Monetary policy , Globalization , Capital inflows , Economic conditions , Domestic liquidity , Liquidity management , |
| Date: | 2008–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/131&r=mon |
| By: | Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex |
| Abstract: | There is widespread agreement that monetary policy should be evaluated by using forward-looking Taylor rules estimated with real-time data. For the case of the U.S., this analysis can be performed using Greenbook data, but only through 2002. In countries outside the U.S., central banks do not regularly release their forecasts to the public. I propose a methodology for conducting monetary policy evaluation in real-time when forward-looking real-time data is unavailable. I then implement this methodology and estimate the resultant Taylor rules for the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and Germany. The methodology consists of calibrating models to closely replicate Greenbook forecasts, and then applying them to international real-time datasets. The results show that the U.S. output gap series is well described by quadratic detrending, while Greenbook inflation forecasts can be closely replicated using Bayesian model averaging over Autoregressive Distributed Lag models in inflation and the GDP growth rate. German and U.S. Taylor rules are characterized by inflation coefficients increasing with the forecast horizon and a positive output gap response. The U.K. and Canada interest rate reaction functions achieve maximum inflation response at middle-term horizons of about 1/2 year and the output gap coefficient enters the reaction functions insignificantly. Estimating the U.K. and Canadian Taylor rules as forward-looking is crucial, as backward-looking specifications produce nonsensical estimates. This is not the case for the U.S. and Germany. |
| Keywords: | real-time data; Taylor rule; monetary rules; inflation forecasts; output gap. |
| JEL: | C53 E58 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11352&r=mon |
| By: | George Tavlas (Bank of Greece); Harris Dellas (University of Bern); Alan Stockman (University of Rochester) |
| Abstract: | Owing to dissatisfaction with the IMF’s de jure classification of exchange-rate regimes, a substantial literature has emerged presenting de facto classifications of exchange-rate systems and using the latter classifications to compare performances of alternative regimes in terms of key macroeconomic variables. This paper critically reviews the literature on de facto regimes. In particular the paper (1) describes the main methodologies that have been used to construct de facto codings, (2) surveys the empirical literature generated by de facto regime codings, and (3) lays-out the problems inherent in constructing de facto classifications. The empirical literature is found to yield few robust findings. We argue that the as-yet unfulfilled objective of this literature, and the major research agenda for the future in this area, lies in the need of a more thorough investigation of the degree of monetary-policy independence without relying exclusively on movements in exchange rates, an agenda the attainment of which is made especially challenging because of the lack of comprehensive and reliable data on reserves and interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Exchange-rate regimes; Economic growth; Inflation; Bipolar hypothesis |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:90&r=mon |
| By: | Antonio Diez de los Rios |
| Abstract: | McCallum (1994a) proposes a monetary rule where policymakers have some tendency to resist rapid changes in exchange rates to explain the forward premium puzzle. We estimate this monetary policy reaction function within the framework of an affine term structure model to find that, contrary to previous estimates of this rule, the monetary authorities in Canada, Germany and the U.K. respond to nominal exchange rate movements. Our model is also able to replicate the forward premium puzzle. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates; Interest rates; Transmission of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E43 F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-43&r=mon |
| By: | David-Jan Jansen |
| Abstract: | By applying readability statistics to the Humphrey-Hawkins testimonies given by the Federal Reserve Chairman, I test whether the clarity of central bank communication affects volatility in financial markets. There are three key results. First, when clarity matters, the results are unequivocal: clarity diminishes volatility. Second, clarity of communication matters mostly for volatility of medium-term interest rates. Third, the effects of clarity vary over time. Clarity mattered especially, but not exclusively during Alan Greenspan's term at the Federal Reserve. Overall, the analysis shows the importance of transparent communication on monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | central bank communication; transparency; readability; financial markets; volatility |
| JEL: | F15 F42 J60 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:185&r=mon |
| By: | Angelo Baglioni (DISCE, Università Cattolica); Andrea Monticini (DISCE, Università Cattolica) |
| Abstract: | By analyzing high frequency data for the European interbank market, we show that the intraday interest rate (implicitly defined by the term structure of the ON rate) jumped by more than ten times at the outset of the financial turmoil in August 2007, resulting in an inefficiency of the money market. This took place despite the provision of unlimited free daylight overdrafts by the ECB, on a collateralized basis. We suggest that such result may be attributed to an increase of the liquidity premium and of the cost of collateral. |
| Keywords: | intraday interest rate, liquidity crisis, money market, central banking |
| JEL: | G3 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie3:ief0083&r=mon |
| By: | Meredith J. Beechey |
| Abstract: | Inflation targeting as practiced by the Bank of England has undergone several changes since its adoption in 1992, including redefinition of the goal, measures to increase transparency and the granting of independence to the central bank. These changes are likely to have affected long-run inflation expectations and perceptions of future inflation risk. To that end, this paper estimates a no-arbitrage, affine, factor model of the term structure of inflation compensation in the United Kingdom. The model yields time series of expected inflation and inflation risk premia at short and long horizons estimated in a theoretically consistent manner. The results reveal that long-run inflation expectations drifted down slowly during the first five years of inflation targeting, but inflation risk premia moved down abruptly only once the Bank of England was granted independence. This event, which arguably signalled more credible commitment by the central bank to its inflation anchor, appears to have been more important in shaping inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk than changes in the definition of the target or measures to increase transparency. |
| Keywords: | Inflation (Finance) |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-44&r=mon |
| By: | Aqib Aslam (University of Cambridge); Emiliano Santoro (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from agents in the economy, and through which changes in the monetary policy rate by the central bank are transmitted. The inter-linkages between housing and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of monetary policy is emphasized. Two competing effects are highlighted: (i) a financial accelerator channel, due to the presence of collateralized borrowers, and (ii) a banking attenuator effect, which crucially arises from the spread in interest rates caused by the introduction of monopolistically competitive financial intermediaries. We show how the classical amplification mechanism explored in models of private borrowing between collaterally-constrained 'impatient' households and unconstrained 'patient' households, such as those put forward by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) and Iacoviello (2005), is counteracted by the banking attenuator effect, given an endogenous steady state spread between loan and savings rates. Attenuation occurs therefore even under the assumption of flexible interest rates. This effect is further magnified when sluggishness in the interest rate-setting mechanism is introduced. |
| Keywords: | bank lending; housing; liquidity; credit; staggered interest rate-setting; collateral constraints |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0827&r=mon |
| By: | Jan Marc Berk; Beata Bierut |
| Abstract: | Monetary Policy Committees differ in the way the interest rate proposal is prepared and presented in the policy meeting. In this paper we show analytically how different arrangements could affect the voting behaviour of individual MPC members and therefore policy outcomes. We then apply our results to the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. A general finding is that when MPC members are not too diverse in terms of expertise and experience, policy discussions should not be based on pre-prepared policy options. Instead, interest rate proposals should arise endogenously as a majority of views expressed by the members, as is the case at the Bank of England and appears to be the case in the FOMC under Chairman Bernanke. ( |
| Keywords: | monetary policy committee; voting; Bank of England; Federal Open Market Committee |
| JEL: | F15 F42 J60 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:184&r=mon |
| By: | Matthew Canzoneri (Georgetown University); Robert Cumby (Georgetown University); Behzad Diba (Georgetown University); David López-Salido (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | Woodford (2003) describes a popular class of neo-Wicksellian models in which monetary policy is characterized by an interest-rate rule, and the money market and financial institutions are typically not even modeled. Critics contend that these models are incomplete and unsuitable for monetary-policy evaluation. Our Banks and Bonds model starts with a standard neo-Wicksellian model and then adds banks and a role for bonds in the liquidity management of households and banks. The Banks and Bonds model gives a more complete description of the economy, but the neo-Wicksellian model has the virtue of simplicity. Our purpose here is to see if the neo-Wicksellian model gives a reasonably accurate account of macroeconomic behavior in the more complete Banks and Bonds model. We do this by comparing the models’ second moments, variance decompositions and impulse response functions. We also study the role of monetary aggregates and velocity in predicting inflation in the two models. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-16&r=mon |
| By: | Luis Ignacio Jácome |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the nature of central bank involvement in 26 episodes of financial disturbance and crises in Latin America from the mid-1990s onwards. It finds that, except in a handful of cases, large amounts of central bank money were used to cope with large and small crises alike. Pouring central bank money into the financial system generally derailed monetary policy, fueled further macroeconomic unrest, and contributed to simultaneous currency crises, thereby aggravating financial instability. In contrast, when central bank money issuance was restricted and bank resolution was timely executed, financial disturbances were handled with less economic cost. However, this strategy worked provided appropriate institutional arrangements were in place, which highlights the importance of building a suitable framework for preventing and managing banking crises. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , South America , Latin America , Central America , Central banks , Financial crisis , Banking crisis , |
| Date: | 2008–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/135&r=mon |
| By: | Alessandro Calza (European Central Bank); Andrea Zaghini (Bank of Italy, Economics, Research and International Relations Area) |
| Abstract: | The paper finds evidence of non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro-area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is first estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of non-linearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This non-linearity is explicitly modelled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions of non-linearities in the dynamics of adjustment to equilibrium stemming from "buffer stock" and "target-threshold" models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the US. |
| Keywords: | Euro area, cointegration, non-linear error-correction, demand for money |
| JEL: | E41 C22 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_690_08&r=mon |
| By: | George Virgil Stoenescu (National Bank of Romania); Elisabeta Blejan (National Bank of Romania); Brindusa Costache (National Bank of Romania); Adriana Iarovici Aloman (National Bank of Romania) |
| Abstract: | The paper looks at the National Bank of Romania’s issue of banknotes from 1880 through 1914, highlighting the developments in the notes’ cover, the channels whereby the central bank put its notes into circulation, as well as the behaviour of the issuing house during episodes of crisis. The narrative evidence reveals that the Bank had successfully managed its seignorage right and maintained a stable and trustworthy domestic currency that ensured the country’s economic development in line with the other European economies of the time. |
| Keywords: | Money circulation; Banknote issue; Cover stock; Mortgage notes; Gold standard |
| JEL: | N13 N23 E42 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:88&r=mon |
| By: | Tanya, Molodtsova; Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex; Papell, David |
| Abstract: | This paper uses real-time data to analyze whether the variables that normally enter central banks’ interest-rate-setting rules, which we call Taylor rule fundamentals, can provide evidence of out-of-sample predictability for the United States Dollar/Euro exchange rate from the inception of the Euro in 1999 to the end of 2007. The major result of the paper is that the null hypothesis of no predictability can be rejected against an alternative hypothesis of predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals for a wide variety of specifications that include inflation and a measure of real economic activity in the forecasting regression. We also present less formal evidence that, with real-time data, the Taylor rule provides a better description of ECB than of Fed policy during this period. While the evidence of predictability is only found for specifications that do not include the real exchange rate in the forecasting regression, the results are robust to whether or not the coefficients on inflation and the real economic activity measure are constrained to be the same for the U.S. and the Euro Area and to whether or not there is interest rate smoothing. The evidence of predictability is stronger for real-time than for revised data, about the same with inflation forecasts as with inflation rates, and weakens if output gap growth is included in the forecasting regression. Bad news about inflation and good news about real economic activity both lead to out-of-sample predictability through forecasted exchange rate appreciation. |
| Keywords: | Taylor rule; euro; exchange rate; forecasting; ECB; euro area. |
| JEL: | F37 E58 E52 F31 |
| Date: | 2008–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11348&r=mon |
| By: | Sophia Lazaretou (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to trace the history of central banking in pre-WWII Greece. To this end, we first study the country’s financial structure and its process of financial development. Several indices of financial development have been assessed and their evolvement has been studied. The country’s financial development had passed through different stages. Financial depth had increased in the turn of the 19th century and expanded further in the 1920s. However, on the basis of behavioural indices, banks were shown to be poorly asset-liability managed. They were also suffered by capital adequacy and were highly leveraged. The analysis of the composition of money supply and its long run behaviour suggests that monetary base variations were the proximate determinants of money supply movements, whereas money multiplier had a minimum impact. Central banking in pre-WWII Greece is viewed with regard to the monetary policy strategy, the monetary policy implementation framework and state interventions. The balance sheet of the Bank of Greece reveals an excessive focus on the chosen monetary policy strategy of a currency peg. Domestic credit was controlled via liquidity-providing standing facilities, either discounts or advances. Moreover, Bank’s considerable involvement in government re-financing might indicate that state interventions were considerable. |
| Keywords: | Central banking; Financial intermediation; Money. |
| JEL: | E50 N23 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:86&r=mon |
| By: | Karsten Staehr |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the prospects of the new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe joining the European Economic and Monetary Union in the short and medium term. The countries must attain and sustain inflation rates sufficiently low to abide by the Maastricht inflation criterion, but this is complicated by the process of real convergence exerting upward pressure on the inflation rate. The paper discusses different strategies which the new EU countries can apply. It is argued that no one-size-fits-all policy is available and that some countries might be better off postponing EMU membership in pursuit of other goals. Still, the special circumstances concerning the Central and Eastern European EU countries suggest that the process of admission of new countries to the EMU should be adaptive and pragmatic |
| Keywords: | Monetary Union, inflation, Maastricht inflation criterion, CEE |
| JEL: | E31 E61 |
| Date: | 2008–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2008-4&r=mon |
| By: | George S. Tavlas (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | With the 14 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) having set the objective of adopting a common currency for the year 2018, an expanding empirical literature has emerged evaluating the benefits and costs of a common-currency area in Southern Africa. This paper reviews that literature, focusing on two categories of studies; (1) those that assume that a country’s characteristics are invariant to the adoption of a common currency; and, (2) those that assume that a monetary union alters an economy’s structure, resulting in trade creation and credibility gains. The literature review suggests that a relative-small group of countries, typically including South Africa, satisfies the criteria necessary for monetary unification. The literature also suggests that, in a monetary union comprised of all SADC countries and a regional central bank that sets monetary policy to reflect the average economic conditions (e.g., fiscal balances) in the region, the potential losses (i.e., higher inflation) from giving up an existing credible national central bank, a relevant consideration for South Africa, could outweigh any potential benefits of trade creation resulting from a common currency. |
| Keywords: | South African Development Community; monetary union; optimum currency areas |
| JEL: | E42 E52 F36 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:70&r=mon |
| By: | Guenter Beck (Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Frankfurt); Volker Wieland (Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Frankfurt; CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy under uncertainty, money, output gap uncertainty, quantity theory and Taylor rules |
| JEL: | E32 E41 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-22&r=mon |
| By: | Olusanya E. Olubusoye; Rasheed Oyaromade |
| Abstract: | This study is motivated by the conviction that inflation entails sizeable economic and social costs, and controlling it is one of the prerequisites for achieving a sustainable economic growth. The study analyses the main sources of fluctuations in inflation in Nigeria. Using the framework of error correction mechanism, it was found that the lagged CPI, expected inflation, petroleum prices and real exchange rate significantly propagate the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria. The level of output was found to be insignificant in the parsimonious error correction model. Surprisingly, the coefficient of the lagged value of money supply was found to be negative and significant only at the 10% level. One of the major implications of this result is that efforts of the monetary regulating authorities to stabilize the domestic prices would continuously be disrupted by volatility in the international price of crude oil. |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_182&r=mon |
| By: | Angel Asensio (CEPN - Centre d'économie de l'Université de Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7115 - Université Paris-Nord - Paris XIII) |
| Abstract: | While the mainstream policies can not be surpassed in the enchanted ‘optimizable’world, (Post) Keynesians have to resign themselves to manage without magic wand inthe uncertain real world. The paper discusses the monetary rules proposed in the recentPost Keynesian literature. It argues that the long-term interest rate is too imperfectlycontrolled for such rules being feasible. Consequently, the quest for credibility isirrelevant, for it makes not much sense to wonder whether authorities will honour theircommitment on an unfeasible ideal target. The right question is whether authoritiespursue convincing objectives so as to move the conventional expectation of the future(and the related interest rate) towards full employment. It is a matter of confidence.The basic principles involved in such an approach to economic policy are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate rule; Inflation targeting, PostKeynesian, Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2008–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00335560_v1&r=mon |
| By: | Milan Sojic (National Bank of Serbia); Ljiljana Djurdjevic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | In the first thirty years of its operations, key functions of the privileged National Bank of the Kingdom of Serbia (1884-1914) were those of a creditor of the economy, issuer of currency and banker to the government. The National Bank’s success in the performance of its functions was mainly determined by the state of government finances. Peace and stability are a prerequisite for economic development and when we look at Serbia’s history from 1884 to 1914, all we see is a chain of wars. In such circumstances, Serbia did make significant economic headway, and the National Bank did do its best to achieve the goal it was set up to perform – to promote trade and economic activity by providing credits. |
| Keywords: | National Bank of Serbia; Central banking; Central bank objectives; History of finance; Financial institutions; Monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E58 N13 N23 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:87&r=mon |
| By: | Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer |
| Abstract: | Recent scholarship on exchange rate regime choice seeks to explain why some countries fix their exchange rate to an anchor currency, but it neglects the question to which currency countries peg. This article posits that an understanding of the choice of anchor currency also improves political economists’ understanding of the decision for an exchange rate peg itself. Drawing on the ‘fear of floating literature’, we argue that the choice of anchor currency is mainly determined by the degree of dependence of the potentially pegging country on imports from the country or currency union issuing the key currency as well as the degree of dependence on imports from the currency area, that is, from other countries which have already pegged to that key currency. This is because an exchange rate depreciation against the main trading partners’ currency increases domestic inflationary pressures due to exchange-rate pass-through. In addition, our theory claims that central bank independence and de facto fixed exchange rates are complements (rather than substitutes) since independent central banks care more than governments about imported inflation. Analyzing a pooled cross-section of 106 countries over the period 1974 to 2005, we find ample evidence in support of our theoretical predictions. |
| Date: | 2008–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp264&r=mon |
| By: | VÃctor Olivo; Mercedes da Costa |
| Abstract: | By definition, fiscal dominance impedes the effective implementation of any monetary strategy aimed at controlling inflation. Economies that exhibit oil dominance-a situation in which oil exports largely affect the main macroeconomic indicators-may also exhibit fiscal dominance. However, in this case, the standard indicators used to gauge the presence of fiscal dominance may fail to give the appropriate signals. The main purpose of this paper is twofold: i) to present a simple framework to analyze fiscal dominance in oil exporting countries and ii) to test the hypothesis of the presence of oil dominance/fiscal dominance (OD/FD) in the case of Venezuela. Using VAR and VEC models it is possible to conclude that there is relevant evidence supporting the validity of the OD/FD hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de , Oil exporting countries , Oil exports , Monetary policy , Fiscal policy , |
| Date: | 2008–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/142&r=mon |
| By: | Fidrmuc , Jarko; Horváth, Roman; Horváthová, Eva |
| Abstract: | We analyze the determinants of the corporate interest rates and the financial accelerator in the Czech Republic. Using a unique panel of 448 Czech firms from 1996 to 2002, we find that selected balance sheet indicators influence significantly the firm-specific interest rates. In particular, debt structure and cash flow have significant effects on interest rates, while indicators on collateral play no significant role. We find evidence that monetary policy has stronger effects on smaller firms than on medium and larger firms. Finally, we find no asymmetric effects in the monetary policy over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy transmission; balance sheet channel; financial accelerator; corporate interest rates. |
| JEL: | E43 E32 G32 |
| Date: | 2008–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:7191&r=mon |
| By: | Iuliana Matei (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) |
| Abstract: | This article studies the features of co-movements of prices and production between six CEECs recently joined the EU and the euro zone. More precisely, based partially on the methodology suggested by Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro [2002], we evaluate the size and the persistence of prices and outputs shocks between each CEECs and euro zone. Results will contribute to the debate around the participation of the new members to the EMU. |
| Keywords: | European monetary integration, co-movements, AR models, CEECs. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00335025_v1&r=mon |
| By: | Hillinger, Claude; Süssmuth, Bernd |
| Abstract: | We test the quantity theory of money (QTM) using a novel approach and a large new sample. We do not follow the usual approach of first differentiating the logarithm of the Cambridge equation to obtain an equation relating the growth rate of real GDP, the growth rate of money and inflation. These variables must then again be ‘integrated’ by averaging in order to obtain stable relationships. Instead we suggest a much simpler procedure for testing directly the stability of the coefficient of the Cambridge equation. For 125 countries and post-war data we find the coefficient to be surprisingly stable. We do not select for high inflation episodes as was done in most empirical studies; inflation rates do not even appear in our data set. Much work supporting the QTM has been done by economic historians and at the University of Chicago by Milton Friedman and his associates. The QTM was a foundation stone of the monetarist revolution. Subsequently belief in it waned. The currently dominant New Keynesian School, implicitly or explicitly denies the validity of the QTM. We survey this history and argue that the QTM is valid and New Keynesians are wrong. |
| Keywords: | new Keynesian theory; quantity theory of money |
| JEL: | B22 E31 E41 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:6987&r=mon |
| By: | Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso |
| Abstract: | The local level model with stochastic volatility, recently proposed for U.S. by Stock and Watson (Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Supplement to Vol. 39, No. 1, February 2007), provides a simple yet sufficently rich framework for characterizing the evolution of the main stylized facts concerning the U.S. inflation. The model decomposes inflation into a core component, evolving as a random walk, and a transitory component. The volatility of the disturbances driving both components is allowed to vary over time. The paper provides a full Bayesian analysis of this model and readdresses some of the main issues that were raised by the literature concerning the evolution of persistence and predictability and the extent and timing of the great moderation. The assessment of various nested models of inflation volatility and systematic model selection provide strong evidence in favor of a model with heteroscedastic disturbances in the core component, whereas the transitory component has time invariant size. The main evidence is that the great moderation is over, and that volatility, persistence and predictability of inflation underwent a turning point in the late 1990s. During the last decade volatility and persistence have been increasing and predictability has been going down. |
| Keywords: | Marginal Likelihood; Bayesian Model Comparison; Stochastic Volatility; Great Moderation; Inflation Persistence. |
| JEL: | E31 C22 |
| Date: | 2008–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11453&r=mon |
| By: | Kelly, Logan J |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I will examine the problems created by incorrectly using a simple sum monetary aggregate to measure the monetary stock. Specifically, I will show that simple sum monetary aggregate confounds the current stock of money with the investment stock of money and that this confounding leads the simple sum monetary aggregate to report an artificially smooth monetary stock. This smoothing causes important information about the dynamic movements of the monetary stock to be lost. This may offer at least a partial explanation of why so many studies find that money has little economic relevance. To that end, we will conclude the paper by examining a reduced form backward looking IS equation to determine whether monetary aggregates contain information about real GDP gap. This paper differs from previous work in that it focuses on smoothing of the monetary stock data caused by the use of simple sum methodology, where the previous work focuses on the bias exhibited by simple sum monetary aggregates. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Aggregation; Money Stock; Currency Equivalent Index |
| JEL: | C43 E49 E47 |
| Date: | 2008–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11455&r=mon |
| By: | Zagaglia , Paolo (Bank of Finland Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study how the pattern of segmentation in the euro area money market has been affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We use nonparametric estimates of realized volatility to test for volatility spillovers between rates at different maturities. For the pre-turmoil period, exogeneity tests from VAR models suggest the presence of a transmission channel from longer maturities to the overnight. This disappears in the subsample starting in August 9 2007. The results of the semiparametric tests of Cappiello, Gerard and Manganelli (2005) report evidence of an increase in volatility contagion within the longer end of the money market curve. However this takes place in the lower tail of the empirical distributions.In this paper we study how the pattern of segmentation in the euro area money market has been affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We use nonparametric estimates of realized volatility to test for volatility spillovers between rates at different maturities. For the pre-turmoil period, exogeneity tests from VAR models suggest the presence of a transmission channel from longer maturities to the overnight. This disappears in the subsample starting in August 9 2007. The results of the semiparametric tests of Cappiello, Gerard and Manganelli (2005) report evidence of an increase in volatility contagion within the longer end of the money market curve. However this takes place in the lower tail of the empirical distributions. |
| Keywords: | money market; high-frequency data; time-series methods |
| JEL: | C22 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2008_023&r=mon |
| By: | Lawrence Christiano (Northwestern University, 2003 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.); Cosmin Ilut (Northwestern University, 2003 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.); Roberto Motto (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Massimo Rostagno (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | We explore the dynamic effects of news about a future technology improvement which turns out ex post to be overoptimistic. We find that it is difficult to generate a boom-bust cycle (a period in which stock prices, consumption, investment and employment all rise and then crash) in response to such a news shock, in a standard real business cycle model. However, a monetized version of the model which stresses sticky wages and a Taylorrule based monetary policy naturally generates a welfare-reducing boom-bust cycle in response to a news shock. We explore the possibility that integrating credit growth into monetary policy may result in improved performance. We discuss the robustness of our analysis to alternative specifications of the labor market, in which wage-setting frictions do not distort on going firm/worker relations. JEL Classification: C11, C51, E5, E13, E32. |
| Keywords: | DSGE Models, Monetary Policy, Asset price boom-busts. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080955&r=mon |
| By: | Tanja Broz (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyse the correlation of demand and supply shocks between the EMU and CEECs in order to examine whether there is some degree of business cycle coordination between them. The main objective is to investigate the impact on Croatia and compare it with other CEECs. Croatia is of interest in this paper since there is a lack of empirical studies on this topic which include Croatia in the sample. Information on the correlation of demand and supply shocks between the EMU and CEECs is important if a country wants to introduce the euro since the synchronisation of business cycles and policy coordination will have a significant impact on willingness to enter the monetary union (except if the decision is a political one). Since Croatia has started its path towards the EU, it should be expected that it will introduce the euro, since there is no opt-out clause for new members. In order to gather results, supply and demand shocks are extracted from data using Blanchard and Quah (1989) methodoogy and then the correlations of shocks between the EMU and CEECs are calculated as well as the size of shocks and the speed of adjustments. Results indicate that Croatia is, at the moment, far from being ready for the common monetary policy with the EMU; while other CEE countries such as Slovenia and Latvia, which in fact first applied for the introduction of euro, have the closest correlation of their business cycles with those of the EMU. |
| Keywords: | supply and demand shocks, European Monetary Union, Central and Eastern European countries |
| JEL: | E32 E42 F33 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iez:wpaper:0801&r=mon |
| By: | Apostolos Serletis; Guohua Feng |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the issue of whether a floating currency is the right exchangerate regime for Canada or whether Canada should consider a currency union with the UnitedStates. In the context of the framework recently proposed by Swofford (2000, 2005), we usea semi-nonparametric fexible functional form - the Asymptotically Ideal Model (AIM),introduced by Barnett and Jonas (1983) - and pay explicit attention to the theoreticalregularity conditions of neoclassical microeconomic theory, following the suggestions by Bar-nett (2002) and Barnett and Pasupathy (2003). Our results indicate that U.S. dollar depositsare complements to domestic (Canadian) monetary assets, suggesting that Canada shouldcontinue the current exchange rate regime, allowing the exchange rate to float freely with nointervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Canada. |
| JEL: | C22 F33 |
| Date: | 2008–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clg:wpaper:2008-32&r=mon |
| By: | Murray, Christian; Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex; Papell, David |
| Abstract: | Although the persistence of inflation is a central concern of macroeconomics, there is no consensus regarding whether or not inflation is stationary or has a unit root. We show that, in the context of a “textbook” macroeconomic model, inflation is stationary if and only if the Taylor rule obeys the Taylor principle, so that the real interest rate is increased when inflation rises above the target inflation rate. We estimate Markov switching models for both inflation and real-time forward looking Taylor rules. Inflation appears to have a unit root for most of the 1967 – 1981 period, and is stationary before 1967 and after 1981. We find that the Fed’s response to inflation is also regime dependent, with both the pre and post-Volcker samples containing monetary regimes where the Fed both did and did not follow the Taylor principle. This contrasts to recent research that suggests the Fed’s response to inflation has been time invariant, and that changes in monetary policy only occurred with respect to the output gap. |
| Keywords: | Taylor rule; real-time data; Great inflation; policy regimes; Markov switching |
| JEL: | E58 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11353&r=mon |
| By: | Nienke Oomes; Christopher M. Meissner |
| Abstract: | What determines the currency to which countries peg or "anchor" their exchange rate? Data for over 100 countries between 1980 and 1998 reveal that trade network externalities are a key determinant. This implies that anchor currency choice may well be suboptimal in that certain currencies, e.g., the U.S. dollar, could be oversubscribed. It also implies that changes in anchor choices by a small number of countries can have large and rapid effects on the international monetary system. Other factors found to be related to anchor choice include the symmetry of output shocks and the currency denomination of liabilities. |
| Keywords: | Currency pegs , Exchange rates , International monetary system , |
| Date: | 2008–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/132&r=mon |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister (Ghent University); Eveline Durinck (Ghent University); Gert Peersman (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate how the dynamic effects of excess liquidity shocks on economic activity, asset prices and inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle, credit cycle and monetary policy stance). |
| Keywords: | Liquidity, asset prices, inflation, time-varying coefficients |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E44 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-17&r=mon |
| By: | Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche (Swiss National Bank, Research Department); Stefan Gerlach (Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, we find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock. Shocks to asset prices have a positive, significant effect on GDP and credit after three to four quarters, whereas prices start to increase much later. We also consider the transmission of US shocks from the US to the other economies. While monetary policy shocks are transmitted internationally, other shocks are not, perhaps because of the form of coefficient restrictions used. |
| Keywords: | asset prices, credit, monetary policy, panel VAR |
| JEL: | C23 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-24&r=mon |
| By: | Gillman, Max (Cardiff Business School); Harris, Mark N. |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the effect of inflation on growth in transition countries. It presents panel data evidence for 13 transition countries over the 1990-2003 period; it uses a fixed effects, full-information maximum likelihood, panel approach to account for possible bias from correlations among the unobserved effects and the observed country heterogeniety. The results find a strong, robust, negative effect of inflation on growth, and one that declines in magnitude as the inflation rate increases. These results include a role for a normalized money demand, by itself and as part of a nonlinearity in the inflation-growth effect. And these results derive from both a baseline single equation model and one that is then expanded into a three equation simultaneous system. This allows for possible simultaneity bias in the baseline model. |
| Keywords: | Growth; transition; panel data; inflation; money demand; endogeneity |
| JEL: | C23 E44 O16 O42 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/25&r=mon |