nep-mon New Economics Papers
on Monetary Economics
Issue of 2008‒11‒04
twelve papers chosen by
Bernd Hayo
Philipps-University Marburg

  1. Macroeconomic adjustment to monetary union. By Gabriel Fagan; Vitor Gaspar
  2. What Is the Mexican Central Bank Aiming At? By Guerrero, Carlos
  3. Prices and output co-movements : an empirical investigation for the CEECs By Iuliana Matei
  4. Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy By Tobias Adrian; Hyun Song Shin
  5. Labor market search and interest rate policy By Takushi Kurozumi; Willem Van Zandweghe
  6. Empirical Assessment of Bifurcation Regions within New Keynesian Models By William Barnett; Evgeniya Aleksandrovna Duzhak
  7. Would a North American monetary union protect Canada and Mexico against the ravages of “Dutch disease”? By Robert A. Blecker; Mario Seccareccia
  8. Comment on Identification with Taylor Rules: is it indeed impossible? Extended version By Carrillo Julio A.
  9. How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates? By Marcel Fratzscher
  10. Exchange rates and fundamentals: a generalization By James M. Nason; John H. Rogers
  11. Foreign-currency bonds - currency choice and the role of uncovered and covered interest parity By Maurizio Michael Habib; Mark Joy
  12. The Friedman's and Mishkin's Hypotheses (Re)Considered By Christian Bordes; Samuel Maveyraud

  1. By: Gabriel Fagan (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Vitor Gaspar (Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European Commission, Rue de la Loi 100, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium.)
    Abstract: The move to monetary union in Europe led to convergence of interest rates among the participating countries. This was associated with notable cross-country differences in the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. Compared to the low interest rate countries, former high interest rate countries experienced a boom in domestic demand, a deterioration of the current account and appreciation of the real exchange rate. This paper documents the key stylised facts of this experience and provides a compact two-country model, based on the Blanchard-Yaari setup, to analyze this phenomenon. This model, though simple, is able to broadly capture the main qualitative features of the adjustment. Using this model, we show that the creation of the monetary union leads to an increase in welfare for all generations in both country groups. JEL Classification: F36, E21, F32.
    Keywords: euro area, interest rate convergence, overlapping generations model.
    Date: 2008–10
  2. By: Guerrero, Carlos (Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)
    Abstract: Although the use of the plutocratic index is, perhaps, an historical convention, it constitutes a misleading target. Our aim is to construct alternative CPI’s for Mexico using the median of the expenditure distribution. Additionally, considering that 42.6% of Mexican people live in poverty (54.7% in rural and 35.6% in urban areas, figures for 2006), our alternative CPI’s distinguish between areas. In the final part of this paper, the use of a single goal by the Mexican monetary authority is criticized.
    Keywords: CPI, Mexico, plutocratic index, inflation
    Date: 2008–08
  3. By: Iuliana Matei (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
    Abstract: This article studies the features of co-movements of prices and production between six CEECs recently joined the EU and the euro zone. More precisely, based partially on the methodology suggested by Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro [2002], we evaluate the size and the persistence of prices and outputs shocks between each CEECs and euro zone. Results will contribute to the debate around the participation of the new members to the EMU.
    Keywords: European monetary integration, co-movements, AR models, CEECs.
    Date: 2008–10
  4. By: Tobias Adrian; Hyun Song Shin
    Abstract: In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable. We document evidence that balance sheets of market-based financial intermediaries provide a window on the transmission of monetary policy through capital market conditions. Short-term interest rates are determinants of the cost of leverage and are found to be important in influencing the size of financial intermediary balance sheets. However, except for periods of crises, higher balance-sheet growth tends to be followed by lower interest rates, and slower balance-sheet growth is followed by higher interest rates. This suggests that consideration might be given to a monetary policy that anticipates the potential disorderly unwinding of leverage. In this sense, monetary policy and financial stability policies are closely linked.
    Keywords: Monetary policy ; Capital market ; Intermediation (Finance) ; Interest rates
    Date: 2008
  5. By: Takushi Kurozumi; Willem Van Zandweghe
    Abstract: We investigate implications of search and matching frictions in the labor market for in ation targeting interest rate policy in terms of equilibrium stability. When the interest rate is set in response to past or present in ation, determinacy of equilibrium is ensured similarly to comparable previous studies with frictionless labor markets. In stark contrast to these studies, indeterminacy is very likely if the interest rate is adjusted in response solely to expected future in ation. This is due to a vacancy channel of monetary policy that stems from the labor market frictions and renders in ation expectations self-ful lling. The indeterminacy can be overcome once the interest rate is adjusted in response also to output or the unemployment rate or if the policy contains interest rate smoothing. When E-stability is adopted as an equilibrium selection criterion, a unique E-stable fundamental rational expectations equilibrium is generated under active, but not too strong, policy responses only to expected future in ation. This suggests that the problem is not critical from the perspective of learnability of the fundamental equilibrium.
    Date: 2008
  6. By: William Barnett (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas); Evgeniya Aleksandrovna Duzhak (Baruch College, City University of New York)
    Abstract: As is well known in systems theory, the parameter space of most dynamic models is stratified into subsets, each of which supports a different kind of dynamic solution. Since we do not know the parameters with certainty, knowledge of the location of the bifurcation boundaries is of fundamental importance. Without knowledge of the location of such boundaries, there is no way to know whether the confidence region about the parameters’ point estimates might be crossed by one or more such boundaries. If there are intersections between bifurcation boundaries and a confidence region, the resulting stratification of the confidence region damages inference robustness about dynamics, when such dynamical inferences are produced by the usual simulations at the point estimates only. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New Keynesian models, which have become common in monetary policy formulations. As a result, we explore bifurcations within the class of New Keynesian models. We study different specifications of monetary policy rules within the New Keynesian functional structure. In initial research in this area, Barnett and Duzhak (2008) found a New Keynesian Hopf bifurcation boundary, with the setting of the policy parameters influencing the existence and location of the bifurcation boundary. Hopf bifurcation is the most commonly encountered type of bifurcation boundary found among economic models, since the existence of a Hopf bifurcation boundary is accompanied by regular oscillations within a neighborhood of the bifurcation boundary. Now, following a more extensive and systematic search of the parameter space, we also find the existence of Period Doubling (flip) bifurcation boundaries in the class of models. Central results in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the considered cases. We also solve numerically for the location and properties of the Period Doubling bifurcation boundaries and their dependence upon policy-rule parameter settings.
    Keywords: Bifurcation, dynamic general equilibrium, Hopf bifurcation, flip bifurcation, period doubling bifurcation, robustness, New Keynesian macroeconometrics, Taylor rule, inflation targeting.
    JEL: C14 C22 E37 E32
    Date: 2008–10
  7. By: Robert A. Blecker; Mario Seccareccia
    Abstract: After the formation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, enthusiasts of regional integration in North America turned their attention to “deeper” forms of integration, especially a customs union or monetary union.1 Interest in proposals for deeper integration peaked around the turn of the new millennium, both north of the 49th parallel and south of the Rio Grande (Río Bravo). Although the unilateralist turn of US foreign policy under President George W. Bush since 2001 has lessened enthusiasm for deeper integration with the US in both Canada and Mexico, these sorts of proposals remain “in the air” and could easily be revived by future North American governments.
    Date: 2008–07
  8. By: Carrillo Julio A. (METEOR)
    Abstract: Cochrane (2007) points out that the Taylor rule parameters in New-Keynesian models are not identified, and thus trying to estimate them through single-equation regressions is pointless. This paper shows in contrast that this observation holds only for economies that do not display inflation inertia or habit formation. These inherent features of aggregate data allow to correctly identify the parameters of the monetary policy rule by single-equation analysis.
    Keywords: monetary economics ;
    Date: 2008
  9. By: Marcel Fratzscher (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the US dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. While the success of the G7 is partly dependent on the market environment, it is also to a significant degree endogenous to the policy process itself. The findings indicate that the reputation and credibility of the G7, as well as its ability to form and communicate a consensus among individual G7 members, are important determinants for the G7’s ability to manage major currencies. The paper concludes by analyzing the factors that help the G7 build reputation and consensus, and by discussing the implications for global economic governance. JEL Classification: F31, F33, F50.
    Keywords: Group of Seven, G7, exchange rate, communication, policy, adjustment, success, event-study methodology, US dollar, yen, euro.
    Date: 2008–10
  10. By: James M. Nason; John H. Rogers
    Abstract: Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard-present value model (PVM) because it predicts random walk exchange rate dynamics if the discount factor approaches one and fundamentals have a unit root. This paper generalizes the Engel and West (EW) hypothesis to the larger class of open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The EW hypothesis is shown to hold for a canonical open economy DSGE model. We show that all the predictions of the standard-PVM carry over to the DSGE-PVM. The DSGE-PVM also yields an unobserved components (UC) models that we estimate using Bayesian methods and a quarterly Canadian-U.S. sample. Bayesian model evaluation reveals that the data support a UC model that calibrates the discount factor to one implying the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate is a random walk dominated by permanent cross-country monetary and productivity shocks.
    Keywords: Foreign exchange rates
    Date: 2008
  11. By: Maurizio Michael Habib (European Central Bank, Directorate General International and European Relations, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Mark Joy (University of Glasgow, Department of Economics, Adam Smith Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom;.)
    Abstract: Using count-data techniques, this paper studies the determinants of currency choice in the issuance of foreign-currency-denominated bonds. In particular, we investigate whether bond issuers choose their issuance currency in order to exploit the borrowing-cost savings associated with deviations from uncovered and covered interest parity. Our sample includes issuers from both the public sector and private sector. Our findings show that the choice of issuance currency is sensitive to deviations from uncovered interest parity but insensitive, in general, to deviations from covered interest parity. Furthermore, the influence of deviations from uncovered interest parity is stronger for financial issuers than for nonfinancial issuers. JEL Classification: F31, F36, G14, G15, G32.
    Keywords: Foreign exchange, currency choice, international debt securities, bonds, interest-rate parity.
    Date: 2008–10
  12. By: Christian Bordes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I); Samuel Maveyraud (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS : UMR5113 - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV)
    Abstract: This paper o¤ers to investigate both the Friedman's and Mishkin's hypotheses on the consequences of inflation on output growth. To this end, we first base these hypotheses in a unified framework. Second, in an empirical work based on OECD countries, we distinguish between short-medium and long run and between headline and core inflation. We get two main results. First, nominal uncertainty and inflation are positively linked. Second, headline inflation negatively Granger causes out- put gap (US, Japan, France) but has no effect on potential output growth (US excepted) whereas core inflation impacts potential output growth (UK, Germany) but not output gap (US excepted).
    Keywords: Inflation, uncertainty, output growth, GARCH, CF filter
    Date: 2008–06

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