| Abstract: |
We estimated the economic benefits of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL to commercial
fish harvesters and consumers, recreational anglers, and other outdoor
recreators. To forecast the impacts of the TMDL on harvested fish and
shellfish stocks in the bay and connected Atlantic coast waters, we used a
summary of judgments from an expert panel and a multi-species model of
Chesapeake Bay fisheries. We estimated benefits to consumers in commercial
fish markets using a multi-stage inverse demand system, which models price as
a function of exogenous supply and accounts for substitution possibilities
between 13 different species and as many as five regions. Models were
estimated using monthly harvest data from the years 1991 to 2011. The
estimated parameters of the inverse demand systems were then used to calculate
compensating and equivalent variation from the changes in harvests between the
baseline and TMDL scenarios. To estimate producer surplus changes, we assumed
that fishing effort will remain fixed at recent levels in each fishery, so
harvesting costs do not increase due to the TMDL. The resulting estimates of
commercial fishing benefits range between $3 and $26 million per year. We also
examined the implications of alternative assumptions about the management
regime in each fishery, including fixed effort, open access, and maximum
sustainable surplus. We calculated benefits to recreational anglers using a
linked participation and site-choice recreation demand model. The model was
estimated using angler intercept survey data from the Marine Recreational
Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS). Catch rates were calculated using
historic reported catch from the MRFSS. We accounted for the sample selection
bias caused by the non-random intercept survey sampling design using weights
based on historic visitation frequencies at each intercept site. The intercept
data were used to estimate a random utility site-choice model, and counts of
trips from respondent zip codes were used to estimate a negative binomial
participation model conditional on the inclusive value of all sites as
estimated by the site-choice model. The resulting estimates of recreational
fishing benefits range between $5 and $59 million per year. We used a separate
recreation demand model to estimate the benefits associated with other outdoor
recreation activities. The model was estimated using aggregate data on the
total number of visitors to national and state parks in Maryland, Virginia,
and Delaware. The aggregate visitation data alone are insufficient to estimate
all parameters of the model, so these data were supplemented with survey data
on the number of recreation trips taken to the Chesapeake Bay collected from a
random sample of individuals in the study area. The marginal effects of water
quality on recreators’ site choices were estimated in a second-stage
regression, using estimates of site-specific constants from the first-stage
site-choice model as the dependent variable and measures of average water
quality conditions and other fixed site attributes as explanatory variables.
The central estimates of the outdoor recreation benefits (exclusive of
recreational fishing) are between $105 to $280 million per year. |
| Keywords: |
Chesapeake Bay, water quality, TMDL, hypoxia, commercial fisheries, recreational fisheries, outdoor recreation demand model, inverse demand system, bioeconomic model |