nep-mkt New Economics Papers
on Marketing
Issue of 2005‒10‒15
two papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
Universidade da Beira Interior

  1. Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods By J. Scott Armstrong; Kesten C. Green
  2. Advertising, Competition and Entry in Media Industries By CRAMPES, Claude; HARITCHABALET, Carole; JULLIEN, Bruno

  1. By: J. Scott Armstrong; Kesten C. Green
    Abstract: We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In general, use structured methods and avoid intuition, unstructured meetings, focus groups, and data mining. In situations where there are sufficient data, use quantitative methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods that structure judgement including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, and simulated interaction. Managers' domain knowledge should be incorporated into statistical forecasts. Methods for combining forecasts, including Delphi and prediction markets, improve accuracy. We provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts, including such procedures as scenarios. Few organizations use many of the methods described in this paper. Thus, there are opportunities to improve efficiency by adopting these forecasting practices.
    Keywords: Accuracy, expertise, forecasting, judgement, marketing.
    JEL: C53 M30 M31
    Date: 2005–09
  2. By: CRAMPES, Claude; HARITCHABALET, Carole; JULLIEN, Bruno
    JEL: L13 L82
    Date: 2005–07

This nep-mkt issue is ©2005 by Joao Carlos Correia Leitao. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.