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on Mining |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The United States and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals and technology. A series of escalatory tariffs and export restrictions led to shortages of essential inputs, nearly forcing automakers worldwide to shut down production. The costly policies reflected uncoordinated and uncommunicated efforts by both countries to reduce their mutual economic dependence. This paper explores a novel path for the United States and China to "cooperate" over how they reduce their dependence on each other in technology and critical minerals, with the aim of limiting future escalation risks and avoiding unnecessary costs. The proposal draws on a version of the reciprocal approach to negotiations developed under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, modified to accommodate a mutual reduction in each country's market dominance in key sectors. |
| Keywords: | economic security, supply chains, tariffs, export restrictions |
| JEL: | F51 F52 F53 F13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-5 |
| By: | Yang Li; Ketan Ahuja; Karan Daryanani (Harvard's Growth Lab); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The energy transition offers countries that can manufacture clean energy technologies substantial opportunities for sustainable economic growth. This paper provides a framework for context-aware industrial policy by applying economic complexity theory to a newly constructed dataset of twelve key clean energy supply chains (CESCs). We find that CESCs are diverse but highly interdependent; they are also growing faster and are more concentrated than other industries. CESCs exhibit substantial entry, exit and competitive churn, and countries are more likely to enter CESC industries that are related to their existing productive capabilities. We also explore changing global competitiveness and country positioning in these industries, and draw out implications of these patterns for industrial policymakers. |
| Keywords: | clean energy, supply chain, principle of relatedness, economic complexity, industrial policy |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:268 |
| By: | Holz, Michael; Kranzusch, Peter; Pahnke, André; Rieger-Fels, Markus; Suprinovič, Olga; Wolter, Hans-Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Politische Bemühungen, Unternehmen zu einem sog. De-Risking in Bezug auf chinesische Zulieferungen zu veranlassen, zeigen bisher nur geringen Erfolg. Diese Studie untersucht auf Basis von Verbands- und Unternehmensinterviews mögliche Gründe für ein ausbleibendes De-Risking, insbesondere bei mittelständischen Unternehmen. Es zeigt sich, dass sich die Unternehmen der Risiken einer Abhängigkeit durchaus bewusst sind, dass Maßnahmen zur Abhängigkeitsreduktion aber an konkreten Hindernissen (z. B. regulatorische Hürden, Kosten) scheitern. |
| Abstract: | Political efforts to encourage companies to engage in a so-called de-risking with regard to Chinese suppliers have so far met with little success. Based on interviews with business associations and companies, this study examines possible reasons for the lack of de-risking, particularly among Mittelstand companies. It shows that these companies are well aware of the risks of dependency, but that measures to reduce their dependency are failing due to specific obstacles (e.g., regulatory hurdles, costs). |
| Keywords: | China, kritische Abhängigkeit, kritische Rohstoffe, De-Risking, Mittelstand, critical dependency, critical raw materials, de-risking, Mittelstand enterprises |
| JEL: | D22 F61 M21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmmat:340160 |
| By: | Abdullah AlHassan (International Monetary Fund); Luc Leruth (University of Clermont Ferrand); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Charles Meuwly (ZENO-Indices); Joseph Moussa (International Monetary Fund); Pierre Regibeau (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Key Takeaways - A small group of large firms dominates the global petrochemical industry, with ownership heavily concentrated among corporations and geographically in China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. - Ownership does not equal control. Chinese and other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors exercise limited control due to reliance on passive investments. Saudi Arabia has full control over its investments. - Europe has weak control and limited presence in the petrochemical industry, with very few major companies, leaving it more dependent on external suppliers. Petrochemicals--used in everything from fertilizers, solar panels, clothing, and cosmetics to electric vehicles, electronics, and medicines--are integral to food security, manufacturing, and clean energy. They are also becoming the fastest-growing source of demand for oil. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East has exposed vulnerabilities in petrochemical supply chains, especially since Middle Eastern producers account for much of the global supply of key petrochemical products, including fertilizers, and one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Understanding the petrochemical industry, including its size, geographical distribution, and ownership and control structure, is essential to reduce risks from geopolitical shocks, hostile takeovers, and fragile supply chains. |
| JEL: | G3 L1 L7 Q3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-4 |
| By: | Luis Gonzalo Llosa (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú; Universidad del Pacífico); Sergio Serván (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Jeanpierre Flores (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Peru that spans from 2009 to 2025. The index captures major political and economic events in Peru’s recent history. Using vector auto-regressive models (VAR), we show that uncertainty shocks are recessionary. We find that these shocks lead to declines in aggregate output as well as currency depreciation and lower short-term interest rates in domestic currency. These results suggest that the EPU index provides a useful tool for policymakers and researchers to monitor and analyze the economic impacts of uncertainty in Peru. |
| Keywords: | Economic Policy Uncertainty, Peru, business cycles, fluctuations |
| JEL: | D80 E22 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:dt-2026-002 |
| By: | Jevgenijs Steinbuks; Peer Schouten; Mathilde Lebrand; Hannes Mueller |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of road rehabilitation on violent conflict using a novel, rich dataset of road rehabilitation projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The country received massive external investments in transport infrastructure rehabilitation under conditions of endemic conflict, often with the explicit objective of supporting peacebuilding objectives. The paper finds that investments in road rehabilitation deter violence, which decreases significantly by around 5 to 10 percentage points after the completion of road rehabilitation. However, another significant finding, based on large-scale machine learning analysis of remote sensing data of road quality over time, is that the peace dividend of infrastructure investments is perish- able: violence increases again as roads progressively deteriorate. Improved durability and systematic maintenance of roads are thus necessary to extend the "peace dividend" of road investments. |
| Keywords: | DRC, mining, remote sensing, road infrastructure, violence |
| JEL: | O18 O19 O55 Q34 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1574 |
| By: | Bowden, Roger |
| Abstract: | “Mine is a long and sad tale”, said the Mouse, turning to Alice and sighing. “ It is a long tail certainly, ” said Alice, looking down with wonder at the Mouse’s tail; “but why do you call it sad ?” And she kept on puzzling about it while the mouse was speaking…" Contexts such as value at risk or venture capital require local uncertainty measures, as distinct from properties of the entire distribution such as differential entropy. Applications such as value at risk and options pricing can be illuminated by means of a regime-specific concept of directional entropy. The latter enables a change of measure to an equivalent logistic distribution, one that has the same total and directional entropies at the given marker, e.g. value at risk critical point or option strike price. This is done via a scaling function that can be interpreted as a Radon-Nikodym derivative and used in its own right as a risk metric. Value at risk rescaling adjusts the critical probability to capture the long tail risk. Directional entropy can be used to identify regions of maximal exposure to new information, which can actually increase entropy rather than collapse it. |
| Keywords: | Differential entropy, Discovery processes, Expected Shortfall, Logistic distribution, Mutual information, Value at risk rescaling, Venture capital, |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:33481 |
| By: | Petry, Johannes |
| Abstract: | China’s efforts to develop commodity futures markets and enhance its influence over commodity pricing are best understood as part of a broader strategy to reduce financial vulnerabilities and increase strategic autonomy within a hierarchical global financial system. Commodity pricing power – defined as the capacity to shape the infrastructures, regulation, participation and currency denomination of derivative markets through which prices are formed – has become an increasingly important component of geopolitical competition. For China, this is not about economic efficiency, but control over the terms under which strategically important commodities are valued and traded. |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qawpt_v1 |