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on Mining |
| By: | Joep Konings |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/408888 |
| By: | Li, Yang; Ahuja, Ketan; Daryanani, Karan; Hausmann, Ricardo; Yıldırım, Muhammed A. |
| Abstract: | The energy transition offers countries that can manufacture clean energy technologies substantial opportunities for sustainable economic growth. This paper provides a framework for context-aware industrial policy by applying economic complexity theory to a newly constructed dataset of twelve key clean energy supply chains (CESCs). We find that CESCs are diverse but highly interdependent; they are also growing faster and are more concentrated than other industries. CESCs exhibit substantial entry, exit and competitive churn, and countries are more likely to enter CESC industries that are related to their existing productive capabilities. We also explore changing global competitiveness and country positioning in these industries, and draw out implications of these patterns for industrial policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21561 |
| By: | Soyoung Lim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Securing sustainable and resilient supply chains makes international cooperation indispensable. Supply chain-linked development cooperation, which mainly involves cooperation between supplier and consumer countries of mineral resources, can be classified into types according to the purpose of cooperation. The supply chain sustainability enhancement type, whose purpose is reducing environmental and social risks that may arise across global supply chains, has been carried out for many years by advanced European donors, with Germany's Initiative for Global Solidarity (IGS) as a representative case. The regional or sector-focused value chain development type aims to strengthen local industrial capacity in order to upgrade local industry and raise productivity. <p> The win-win supply chain cooperation through resource cooperation type targets industries in which the donor holds a comparative advantage among upstream supply chain industries such as minerals and mining, with Switzerland's Better Gold Initiative (BGI) and Norway's Oil for Development (OfD) program as representative cases. Advanced donors plan and pursue supply chain-linked development cooperation programs for win-win cooperation grounded in the demand of developing countries and the donor's comparatively advantaged industries, and they brand separate programs focused on supply chains to raise program visibility. They also respond proactively to changes in domestic policy and global norms by transforming their cooperation programs, and they pursue effective cooperation by drawing on diverse partnerships. |
| Keywords: | supply chains; global value chains; development cooperation; trade cooperation; industrial cooperation; trade policy; industrial development |
| JEL: | O19 O21 O24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023053 |
| By: | David Nason; Adam Scavette; Heather Stephens |
| Abstract: | Falling natural gas prices amid the shale boom triggered a sharp decline in U.S. coal production, with over half of Appalachian mines shuttering between 2011 and 2016. In this paper, we use administrative data on mine activity and employment to measure the impact of coal mine closures on local economic outcomes. Using difference-in-differences, we find these closures significantly increased local unemployment and reduced jobs, wages, and output. We estimate a job loss multiplier of 2.0—substantially higher than in previous busts—likely driven by a rising local wage premium that amplified the impact of each lost mining job on the broader regional economy. |
| Keywords: | Coal; Labor Demand; Energy Transition; Natural Resource Shock |
| JEL: | R11 R12 Q31 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103422 |
| By: | Consonni, Niccolo; Magerman, Glenn |
| Abstract: | We develop a Strategic Dependency Index (SDI) to quantify the welfare cost of product-level import price shocks. Unlike existing empirical indicators based on concentration metrics and ad hoc thresholds, the SDI is derived from a structural cost-of-living framework, and allows for additive decomposability across products, source countries and destination countries. We apply the SDI to the EU27, and estimate trade elasticities, love-for-variety parameters, and origin-destination- specific taste shifters using highly disaggregated 8-digit product-level trade data over 2002–2021, instrumenting for prices and expenditure shares to address endogeneity. Three sets of findings emerge. First, the products generating the largest welfare losses are petroleum oils, liquefied natural gas, iron ores, and selected basic metals. Their strategic relevance stems from the interaction of both low substitutability across sources and large expenditure shares. Second, strategic dependency varies sharply across EU member states even for the same product, driven by fundamentally different channels — high substitution elasticities in some countries versus large expenditure shares in others — implying that uniform EU-wide policy responses may fail to address the heterogeneous sources of vulnerability. Third, the suppliers contributing most to aggregate welfare exposure do not coincide with the geopolitical rivals dominating policy discourse: China, the USA, and Russia do not lead the SDI ranking. The SDI provides a tractable, theory-consistent framework for evaluating targeted policy interventions aimed at reducing strategic trade exposure. |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F14 D12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21328 |
| By: | Ranger, Nicola; Philip, Thea; Tayler, Tom; O'Donnell, Emma |
| Keywords: | critical natural systems; D-SINS; G-SINS; Global Systemically Important Natural Systems; governance; macro-critical systems; SINS |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138880 |
| By: | Dario Caldara; Matteo Iacoviello |
| Abstract: | The conflict in the Middle East has severely constrained global supplies of oil and natural gas. The conflict is also disrupting the provision of other inputs critical to global supply chains, such as naphtha and fertilizers, leading to lengthier delivery times and surging prices for affected products. |
| Date: | 2026–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103467 |
| By: | Modirzadeh, Seyed Alireza; Davies, Ella; Fitzpatrick, Meghan; Sinclair, Maxim; Jahn, Valentin; Dietz, Simon |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre Transition Planning 2026 report assesses the transition plans of 22 large publicly listed companies in the oil and gas and diversified mining sectors. The report applies the TPI Centre's Net Zero Strategies (NZS) assessment frameworks to evaluate how companies plan to deliver emissions reductions across their businesses. It conducts detailed assessments of companies’ decarbonisation strategies, including by analysing decarbonisation levers (the key actions companies plan to take to decarbonise), evaluating the alignment of those actions with low-carbon scenarios, and examining capital expenditure and investment planning. In doing so, the report sheds light on the credibility, investability, external dependencies and transition readiness of corporate transition plans in these sectors. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138888 |
| By: | Simon, Jenny; Kalt, Tobias; Wissen, Markus |
| Abstract: | European key industries such as the automotive and steel sector have been subject to intense transformation pressure for some time. Intensified international competition and more active industrial policy intervention by national governments and the European Commission are driving process and product innovations with far-reaching consequences, among them significant implications for employment conditions. Alongside digitalisation, decarbonisation constitutes a central development trend. In the automotive industry, this is manifesting primarily as a transition to electric mobility, while parts of steel production are in the process of switching from the emission-intensive blast furnace route to direct reduction of iron ore, ideally using green hydrogen. Both developments are contested and have recently been superimposed by militarisation and a fossil rollback. This working paper analyses the conditions and trends of decarbonisation processes in both industries. It identifies workplace conflicts, workers' subjectivities, and the impact of overarching social and international developments on industrial decarbonisation as an important research desideratum. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonisation, Digitalisation, Geopolitics, Automotive Industry, Steel Industry |
| JEL: | J5 L5 P1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:341636 |
| By: | Modirzadeh, Seyed Alireza; Jahn, Valentin; Dietz, Simon; Fitzpatrick, Meghan; Sinclair, Maxim |
| Keywords: | diversified mining; methodology; net zero strategies |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138887 |
| By: | Gonzalez, Felipe; Prem, Mounu |
| Abstract: | We study the economic effects of a large nationalization program using newly assembled firm-level data from Chile under Salvador Allende (1970–73). Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that nationalization substantially reduced firm performance and international business activity relative to comparable private firms. Return on assets fell sharply and importing activity declined, with negative effects concentrated in manufacturing, while firms in strategic and natural resource sectors were largely unaffected. We also document lower electoral support for the incumbent coalition in more exposed municipalities. Overall, nationalization generated sizable and uneven economic costs with significant political consequences. |
| Keywords: | Nationalization; State-owned enterprises; Firm performance |
| JEL: | L33 N36 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21353 |
| By: | Ming Wing; Rwit Chakravorty; Shawn Arita; Sandro Steinbach |
| Abstract: | The March 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted a major corridor for global fertilizer trade and triggered a sharp but uneven market response. This white paper evaluates the first four months of adjustment, focusing on why urea prices retraced quickly while phosphate, ammonia, and UAN prices remained elevated. NOLA urea rose to about $710 per short ton in April before falling below pre-war levels by mid-June, reflecting a rapid repricing of prolonged-closure risk, China’s return to the export market, rerouting through Omani ports, and partial coverage of near-term buyer needs. By contrast, DAP, MAP, ammonia, and UAN remained above pre-war levels because sulfur availability, natural gas costs, and upstream feedstock pressures were not resolved by the reopening framework. Using updated mid-June prices, revised supply assumptions, and Kalshi-calibrated blockage schedules, the paper revises the SVAR-PE fertilizer outlook through 2028. The June update lowers projected 2027 prices relative to the April scenarios but still indicates possible firming from the mid-June urea trough and persistent cross-product divergence. Remaining risks center on effective reopening delays, Gulf infrastructure damage, China export policy, seasonal import demand in Brazil and India, and uncertainty around phosphate supply constraints. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwp:404235 |
| By: | Benjamin Milner (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | This paper breaks new ground in tracing the effects of historical child labour reform from childhood through to adulthood. I first show that by decreasing the opportunity cost and increasing the returns to schooling, Britain’s 1860 Mining Act led to increased human capital acquisition among the children of coal miners. Then, using full-count census records linked across decades, I demonstrate that positive effects extended well into adulthood, as these same children became significantly more likely to obtain high skill, human capital-intensive occupations. |
| Keywords: | Child Labour; Education; UK; Resource Industry; Compulsory Schooling |
| JEL: | N13 N33 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:023032 |
| By: | Mark Brown; Wulong Gu; Jesse Tweedle |
| Abstract: | With rising barriers to trade with the United States, it is important to understand how Canadian firms adjust to tariffs. To provide insight, this paper examines the effects of U.S. tariffs imposed on Canadian steel and aluminum products from June 1, 2018, to May 20, 2019. Over the months tariffs were imposed, the value of tariffed steel and aluminum exports fell by about 50%, with U.S. importers paying the full cost of tariffs through higher prices. Exports of steel declined as exporters affected by tariffs responded by exiting the U.S. market and halting operations. Exports of aluminum declined as exporters affected by tariffs adjusted by reducing their exports, rather than severing supply chains by exiting the U.S. market. Across the 2017 cohort of steel and aluminum exporters affected by tariffs, gross output and employment levels were at least maintained from 2017 to 2019. Moreover, steel and aluminum producers affected by tariffs that continued to export to the United States increased investment by about 60%, which far outpaced firms that exited the U.S. market (-36% and +37% for steel and aluminum producers, respectively). Lastly, firms that left the U.S. market tended to have higher debt levels relative to those that continued, suggesting a link between the health of balance sheets and firms’ ability to continue as exporters. In the face of higher tariffs, declining trade (in value and volume) is expected. The resilience of steel and aluminum exporters is a more surprising outcome, and the lessons learned from this are more tentative given that current tariffs are higher, more uncertain and potentially more persistent. |
| Keywords: | tariffs, prices, employment, investment, firm survival |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202501100004e |
| By: | Andrews-Speed, Philip |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138553 |
| By: | Sabrina Scherzer (Department of Geography and Social Anthropology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Christa Brunnschweiler (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Tiara Elgifienda (Universitas Bangka Belitung, Indonesia); Håkon da Silva Hyldmo (Department of Geography and Social Anthropology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Nanang Kurniawan (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia); Paivi Lujala (University of Oulo); Primi Putri (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Mineral producing countries increasingly mandate corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives to mitigate negative impacts of mineral extraction through local development projects, but evidence of their effectiveness is scarce. The Indonesian Program Pengembangan dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PPM) requires mining firms to fund local development projects. However, its effectiveness is limited by low public awareness and governance issues. We run a survey experiment with 610 respondents in 35 tinmining communities to test whether information on the PPM scheme and real-world examples of projects funded through it, presented through two video treatments, enhance knowledge and impact rights perceptions and behavior regarding PPM. Our findings show that a pure information treatment (T1) has a positive impact on respondents’ beliefs that they have a right to benefit from mining revenues but reduces their likelihood of making a donation to an NGO that supports PPM project implementation. Adding examples of successful PPM projects to the information treatment (T2) further strengthens respondents perceptions of their rights to benefit and influence decision-making and also increases the likelihood that they will request more information on PPM and local development, with no impact on actual behavior. We conclude that awareness of such revenue-sharing schemes like PPM could be enhanced with tailored information but whether this would be enough to increase involvement by local communities is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | accountability, Indonesia, tin revenues, survey experiment, information treatment |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:20726 |
| By: | Bougioukos, Giorgos; Papaevangelou, Charis; Siapera, Eugenia |
| Abstract: | The EU has called the ‘twin transition’ a win-win strategy for tackling climate change and strengthening its digital autonomy amid geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions. However, high-level policy discourse can hide the material frictions, extractive dynamics, and emerging dependencies associated with implementing this agenda. The paper examines Western Macedonia, a region historically defined by lignite extraction, now transforming into Greece’s post-lignite development hub. Drawing on critical data centre studies and critical political economy scholarship, we trace the emergence of a twin transition industrial complex (TTIC), that is a system of a parallel and interlinked development of renewables and large-scale, often AI-ready data centres. Methodologically, the study combines 12 semi-structured interviews with locals, on-site visits, as well as an analysis of relevant policy and corporate communication documents. We discern four key findings: A) Western Macedonia is transformed into a hub for renewable energy and data centres, which will help Greece integrate into the global AI value chain. B) However, this shift is causing the displacement of locals, especially young people, and creating a ‘limbo’ situation that will lead to social and ecological exhaustion. C) The green transition is also creating ‘green enclosures’ and transforming the landscape by converting land, including historically publicly funded PPC land, into assets for a more exclusionary and extractive digital transformation. D) Despite official narratives portraying Western Macedonia as a ‘Greek Silicon Valley’, locals are excluded from decision-making and governance processes, leading to disillusionment and a sense of hopelessness for the future. Our main contribution is the outlining of an emerging twin transition industrial complex, wherein the twin transition and digital transformation are planned and materialised by state and (Big Tech) capitalist actors according to the imperatives of the AI industry’s global value chains at the expense of local communities and ecosystems. |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fwynt_v1 |
| By: | Gorgulu, Nisan; Vagliasindi, Maria |
| Abstract: | This study makes a significant contribution to the expanding body of literature on the energy-growth nexus, distinguishing itself in two important ways. First, this is the first meta-analysis that systematically compares the economic growth impacts of renewable versus nonrenewable energy sources, instead of relying on aggregate energy indicators. Second, it explicitly explores the heterogeneity of these effects in the context of developing countries. These elasticities exhibit notable nonlinearity, following a U-shaped pattern across stages of development. In low-income countries, the relatively higher elasticity for both energy types likely reflects the critical need to expand access, regardless of the source. As countries move up the income ladder, the elasticity of renewables tends to decline, potentially reflecting short-term frictions and adjustments associated with the integration of intermittent sources, and comes to a plateau for high-income countries. In contrast, fossil fuels may remain essential in higher-income contexts for supporting grid stability and storage as renewable energy becomes more integrated. The findings underscore the need for customized energy policies that correspond to each country's economic development stage. In low-income countries, policies should focus on expanding access to affordable and reliable energy sources. In developed economies, policies should aim to encourage innovations in clean energy technologies and support technology transfer to developing countries, assisting them in sustainably meeting their energy requirements for economic growth. |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11422 |
| By: | Christopher Kennedy |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the mechanisms by which a major energy transition produced the US Great Depression. Stock market indices show the 1927-29 Wall Street Bubble was led by petroleum-based technologies--especially airplanes and agricultural machinery. The subsequent crash was triggered by oil discovery. Tractors replacing 32 percent of horses over the course of the 1920s led to a 26 percent increase in the net available farmland for domestic consumption. The oversupply of land lowered farm prices, causing deflation. The deflation was non-uniform, with prices of coal, metals, and building materials--essential for capital formation--rising in real terms. Railroads had hegemonic control over transportation and energy supply; their decline, complicated by technological lock-in, undermined the US financial system, contributing to bank failures. Several statistical tests corroborate the energy transition hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Great Crash; Wall Street Bubble; Deflation; Coal; Petroleum; Tractors; Airplanes; Railroads |
| JEL: | Q4 N1 N5 N7 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1121 |
| By: | Sean Clarke; Andrew Fields |
| Abstract: | U.S. tariffs on goods imported from Canada are ongoing and in flux. The introduction of tariffs and subsequent pauses, a reprieve for Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)- compliant goods, as well as additional tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, oil and gas, and lumber, have created uncertainty for businesses, weighing on cross-border trade, non-residential investment and hiring intentions. Economy-wide output slowed when tariffs went into effect, as goods production fell and exports to the United States scaled back markedly. Employment growth was relatively weak during the spring and summer months, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1% in August, the highest level since 2016, outside the COVID-19 pandemic period. Labour demand has remained subdued as job vacancies continue to trend lower. This paper examines trends in payroll employment following the introduction of U.S. tariffs. It compares employment trends in industries dependent on the U.S. demand for Canadian products with those in sectors that are less reliant on U.S. demand. Industries dependent on U.S. demand for exports are defined as those in which 35% of jobs or more depend on U.S. demand, either directly or indirectly. Moreover, the paper examines trends in hiring and layoff rates across these industry groups, to better understand the underlying labour market dynamics driving variations in employment. |
| Keywords: | recent employment trends, industries dependent |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:20250120003e |
| By: | Bancalari, Antonella; Rud, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | Can local government spending spur economic activity? We exploit a reform in Peru that redistributed natural resource tax revenues to municipalities in non-extractive areas, generating exogenous variation in inter-governmental transfers. Between 2006 and 2018, we estimate a dynamic cumulative fiscal multiplier of around 1.3, going up to 1.6 in more closed, rural areas. We show that the resulting windfalls boosted public investment, as intended by the reform. Using micro-data, we find increases in labor force participation, wage earnings and revenues for household firms and farms, with the strongest effects in agriculture. Consistent with this, we show that rural areas benefited the most, experiencing rises in income and consumption, and declines in poverty. |
| Keywords: | Peru |
| JEL: | H23 H27 H30 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21510 |
| By: | Ban, Cornel; Hasselbalch, Jacob; Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | Sustainability transformations depend on ambitious state action. We propose green economic planning as a framework for states to set ambitious climate plans and ensure policy coherence across three dimensions: inputs (sources of information, planning directors, and political regimes), processes (technical expertise and political negotiation), and outputs (monetary-financial, fiscal, and state ownership strategies). To capture how green economic planning works across democratic and authoritarian institutions, we conducted a comparative case study of three countries. France’s intersectoral non-green and Denmark’s sectoral green planning covers democratic institutions, while China’s intersectoral green planning covers authoritarian institutions. Through these cases, we show that 1) green economic planning is both feasible and adaptable across diverse political economies, 2) effective planning requires balancing decentralized information flow with strong central coordination, 3) successful planning depends on managing tensions between autonomous planning agencies, market discipline, and long-term political legitimacy. We term this ‘directed entanglement, ’ positioning it as a cornerstone for the emerging research agenda on green economic planning—a blueprint for navigating the use of the state to steer a green transition under capitalism.n analytical framework of elite and resistant imaginaries to trace how these actors construct competing futures of platform labour in EU regulation. These imaginaries transpire in response to the reorganisation of labour relations amidst the digital transformation of socioeconomic institutions. They reveal how platform infrastructures challenge institutional boundaries and reshape the governance of work in the EU. Through a qualitative methodology that combines critical thematic and discourse analysis of stakeholder submissions, the study investigates the frictions that transpire when elite and resistant imaginaries encounter one another. The inductive framework of ‘elite’ and ‘resistant’ imaginaries of platform work illuminates the strategic negotiation of categories and its evolution throughout the policymaking process. The research contributes to scholarship on digital labour and the governance of platforms and algorithmic systems within the EU by offering a critical communications account of how competing imaginaries interact within the regulatory infrastructures of the digital economy. The central empirical contribution of the project lies in re-situating regulatory arbitrage through the analytical lens of elite/resistant imaginaries and discursive friction. The analysis demonstrates how BusinessEurope takes advantage of longstanding techniques of regulatory escape, such as burden shifting and legal fragmentation, and combines them with the systemic structural asymmetries within the European single market to incentivise lenience for platform self-governance models and soft law (Scharpf, 1999). By analysing digital transformation and status classification, the thesis demonstrates how the future of the platform labour economy is co-constructed through frictions that culminate in a sophisticated arbitrage strategy, organised around the ontological construction of the platform as an ‘intermediary’ (Gillespie, 2010). The next chapter discusses the conceptual map of regulatory arbitrage in the PWD as a critical output of the research and considers the limitations of this project, and the future trajectory of trade union discourse on platform work. |
| Keywords: | green state; economic planning; directed entanglement; China; France; Denmark |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138455 |
| By: | Nicholas Appiah; Ali Jaffri; Dilmi C. W. Hettiachchi-Halpe-Kankanamalage; Svetlozar T. Rachev |
| Abstract: | This paper examines portfolio optimization for commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) under heavy-tailed return behavior. Using daily Bloomberg data for 30 U.S.-listed commodity ETFs from 12 December 2018 to 16 December 2024, we study funds spanning agriculture, energy, metals, and broad commodity index exposure. We compare a passive buy-and-hold portfolio with rolling-window optimized portfolios formed under mean--variance and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criteria, considering both long-only and restricted long--short strategies. The results showed substantial heterogeneity across commodity sectors, with energy and broad commodity index funds displaying pronounced volatility, skewness, and excess kurtosis. Historical optimization indicated that minimum-risk and CVaR-based portfolios provided more stable cumulative performance than tangent portfolios and generally improved Sharpe, Calmar, and STARR$_{0.95}$ ratios. Extreme-value diagnostics showed that optimized portfolios remained exposed to heavy downside tails, so improved risk-adjusted performance did not eliminate extreme-loss risk. A dynamic extension based on ARMA--GARCH marginal models, Student--$t$ copula dependence, and one-step-ahead predictive scenarios improved performance mainly when combined with minimum-risk or CVaR-based objectives. Dynamic mean--variance tangent portfolios performed less reliably, reflecting sensitivity to expected-return estimation error. Transaction-cost robustness checks further showed that the practical value of dynamic optimization depended on turnover control, with low-turnover dynamic CVaR tangent portfolios remaining more resilient to implementation costs. Overall, the analysis showed that commodity ETF allocation benefited most from conservative and downside-risk-aware optimization, while optimized portfolios continued to require explicit tail-risk and implementation diagnostics. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.26625 |
| By: | Stefania B\"ohnlein; Fanny B\"ose; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert; Alexander Wimmers |
| Abstract: | In recent years, technological developments and activities by private actors have led a reemerged discussion of the potential of nuclear fusion to meet growing global energy demands. So far, however, fusion technologies remain at comparatively low development levels and their deployment in commercial power plants is probably still decades away. Regardless, over the last decades, many cost studies have been conducted that estimate the future cost of potential fusion power plants. But to date, there is no systematic and harmonized assessment of these projections. Therefore, this study conducts a stochastic analysis of future fusion power plant costs for three distint technology lines, magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and magneto-inertial confinement fusion, including cost assessments of different technology maturity levels. These levels are further assessed to determine projected learning rates for future fusion costs. For mature technologies, mean LCOE are determined at 114.6, 110.3, and 143.9 USD per MWh for MCF, ICF, and MIF devices, respectively. This implies learning rates of more than 30%. We find that these projected values are rather optimistic when compared to other literature or comparable technologies like fission. We therefore urge policymakers to caution when potential fusion developers refer to the potential economic competitiveness of fusion power plants. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.26536 |
| By: | Byungyul Park (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Recently, South Korea and India agreed to expand bilateral trade to USD 50 billion by 2030 and to advance cooperation centered on supply chains and emerging industries, laying an institutional foundation through expanded strategic-industry cooperation, the establishment of an Industrial Cooperation Committee, and the resumption of negotiations to improve the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The new Industrial Cooperation Committee is expected to serve as the core institutional foundation of Korea-India cooperation, addressing the fragmentation of existing cooperation channels and building a whole-of-government platform specialized in industrial cooperation.<p> The summit marks a turning point in Korea-India cooperation, shifting the focus from trade-centered cooperation to supply chain and industrial cooperation. It strengthens supply chain resilience and transforms the bilateral cooperation framework toward a production- and technology-based model through expanded cooperation in strategic resources and high-value-added industries. Expanding cooperation with India will require proactive efforts to address India’s trade balance concerns, as improving the trade balance remains an important policy priority and an important consideration in trade negotiations; building a sustainable partnership calls for establishing global production and export hubs and increasing the local sourcing of intermediate goods.<p> Raising CEPA utilization requires reforming rules of origin and related systems, as complex origin criteria and certification procedures constrain use of the agreement. Stronger linkages between development cooperation and Korea-India industrial cooperation is also needed, as the limited integration of official development assistance (ODA) with industrial cooperation reduces the effectiveness of implementation. |
| Keywords: | Korea-India cooperation; industrial development; development cooperation; international trade; trade policy; trade relations; trade competitiveness; South Korea; India |
| JEL: | F13 F23 F21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:023035 |
| By: | Verduzco-Bustos, Guillermo; Zanetti, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel instrumental variable to identify geopolitical oil price shocks arising around significant geopolitical tensions and examine their transmission to the global oil market, key U.S. macroeconomic aggregates, and cross-border spillover effects on other commodity markets, output, and inflation. Geopolitical oil price shocks resemble severe oil supply shocks, leading to production declines and a much sharper increase in oil prices than conventional shocks. They are coupled with heightened uncertainty and induce a distinct inventory response: an initial short-term decline followed by long-term accumulation, reflecting market participants’ concerns about future economic and oil market conditions. The cross-border spillover effects are significant for oil-intensive commodities, and are stronger for output and inflation in oil-importing economies and for countries with low energy inventories and high energy dependency on foreign supply. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk; Var model; Oil price shock; Spillovers; Commodity markets |
| JEL: | C32 E22 E32 E31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21378 |
| By: | Reka Juhasz (UBC, NBER, CEPR); David Krisztian Nagy (CREI, CEPR); Claudia Steinwender (LMU Munich, CEPR); Woan Foong Wong (University of Oregon, NBER, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Maritime transport remains the backbone of global trade, yet the port and shipping network that carries it has been transformed by containerization and related technological advances. Drawing on newly available granular data—digitized historical shipping records, georeferenced ship movements, and shipment-level routing information—we present five stylized facts on the structure and evolution of the maritime network. Global shipping activity is highly concentrated among a changing lineup of dominant top ports even as lower-ranked ports disperse, while state-owned Chinese port terminal operators increasingly account for these global volumes, boosting overall port operations while delivering efficiency gains mostly to Chinese vessels. We use these facts to organize a synthesis of a fast-growing literature: containerization reshaped which port cities could expand, reinforced hub-and-spoke concentration that yields large but localized welfare gains, embedded ports in multimodal networks that amplify the returns to infrastructure, and generated market power, congestion, and environmental costs. Together, this evidence shows how evolving maritime technologies simultaneously deepen global integration and heighten the economic and geopolitical importance of critical nodes in the transport network—and of who controls them. |
| Keywords: | transport networks; ports; international trade; trade costs; containerization; geoeconomics; |
| JEL: | F13 F14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:579 |