|
on Mining |
| By: | Ryan Singleton (Adelaide University); Qazi Haque (Adelaide University); Firmin Doko Tchatoka (Adelaide University) |
| Abstract: | The global transition to low-carbon energy has led many countries to adopt national hydrogen strategies, yet their policy impacts and adoption drivers remain poorly understood. This paper investigates these issues using panel data for 49 countries from 2010 to 2023. Policy impacts are assessed via a staggered difference-in-differences framework, while the determinants of adoption are analysed using a fixed-effects linear probability model. We find that adoption is associated with a sustained and economically significant increase in public hydrogen R&D spending, signalling credible government commitment, and a smaller rise in carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) R&D, reflecting continued support for fossil-fuel-linked technologies. No short-run reduction in industrial process emissions is observed, suggesting that decarbonisation effects materialise gradually. Turning to the determinants of adoption, within-country growth in renewable electricity generation emerges as the strongest predictor of adoption, highlighting the interdependence between renewable expansion and hydrogen policy formation, while macroeconomic and political factors appear largely insignificant. These results shed light on the effectiveness and determinants of national hydrogen strategies in the global energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen policy; National hydrogen strategies;Difference-in-differences;Event study; Policy adoption; Energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2026-01 |
| By: | Kyung-In Hwang (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Talk of a crisis in Korea’s battery industry has not subsided. Slowing demand for electric vehicles, China’s expanding market share, and mounting policy uncertainty in major economies have arrived together, and the earnings of Korean firms have suffered as a result. What deserves attention, however, is that this recent weakness does not stem from any stagnation in the global battery industry. World battery demand continues to rise in existing markets, on the intensive margin, and demand in new applications, on the extensive margin, has lately been expanding quickly.<p> This paper shows that the root cause of the crisis in Korea’s battery industry lies not in the electric vehicle chasm itself but in an erosion of competitiveness in the country’s core market and core product. It further argues that the industry’s center of growth is shifting structurally from electric vehicles to energy storage systems (ESS), and it focuses on the US ESS market, which is growing on the strength of expanding renewable generation and the spread of AI data centers. The United States is combining tariff policy with the supply chain restrictions attached to the advanced manufacturing production credit (AMPC) to reduce its reliance on Chinese ESS and build a supply chain centered on itself. These policy changes are expected to open new growth opportunities for Korean battery firms that have established production bases on US soil.<p> ESS is critical infrastructure underpinning the global energy transition and the spread of the AI industry. Building ESS into a new engine of growth for Korea’s battery industry will require using US supply chain policy strategically, and it will also require expanded policy support to strengthen the domestic battery materials industry, to upgrade the systems through which Korea responds to industrial and trade policy in major economies, and to build capability in next-generation ESS technology and system integration (SI). |
| Keywords: | ESS; AI data centers; AIDC; secondary batteries; power grids; tariffs; domestic production tax credit |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023647 |
| By: | Kenney, Martin |
| Abstract: | Abstract The global transition toward electric vehicles and renewable energy represents a fundamental shift in the world’s techno-economic paradigm. Drawing on discussions during my June 2026 visit to ETLA in Helsinki, this brief argues that the true engine of this transformation is the battery, the foundational technology uniting production and consumption in the emerging electric age. This memorandum is published alongside a companion brief by Petri Rouvinen (2026) examining the EU’s response to this shift, the proposed Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA). Through decades of deliberate industrial policy, China has secured command over the entire clean technology triad of solar power, batteries, and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, Western automakers, particularly in the United States, risk being stranded on a shrinking island of internal combustion engine technology amid political whiplash. In this brief, I synthesize the mechanisms driving China’s rise, examine the strategic implications of the electric technology stack, and offer insights for decision-makers seeking to build a competitive and resilient industrial future. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, Battery supply chain, Geopolitics, Industrial policy, Energy transition |
| JEL: | F13 L52 L62 O38 Q42 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:188 |
| By: | Massimo Guidolin, Manuela Pedio |
| Abstract: | Biodiversity loss is among the most severe environmental externalities facing commodity markets, yet its pricing in futures and spot markets remains poorly understood. Agricultural commodities, timber, and livestock are simultaneously the primary drivers of global habitat destruction and the assets most directly exposed to the ecosystem services they degrade. This double materiality operates more immediately in commodity markets than in the equity and bond markets on which the biodiversity-finance literature has concentrated its attention. This paper provides a critical review and research agenda organized around three pillars. First, we map ecological indicators, footprint-based metrics, and text-based attention proxies. Second, we trace the transmission channels through which ecosystem degradation reaches commodity prices: physical supply disruption, regulatory transition risk, and the financial investor channel, with particular attention to the scale-versus-intensity distinction in regulatory design. Third, we review the theoretical frameworks for commodity biodiversity pricing, explain why equity and bond results cannot be transplanted into commodity markets, and present the first systematic commodity-market evidence, consistent with intensity-based biodiversity risk being priced in spot but not futures returns. Because the commodity-specific pricing literature is nascent, the empirical section combines a review of existing conditional evidence with an original empirical analysis of a commodity return panel data set. We conclude with a structured research agenda centered on causal identification, the spot-futures wedge, climate-biodiversity integration, and data infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity risk, commodity futures, theory of storage, species loss intensity, spot-futures wedge, transition risk, ecosystem services. |
| JEL: | G12 G13 Q51 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp26286 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Friedrich, Jonathan (CIRCLE, Lund University); Nilsson, Fredrik (CIRCLE, Lund University); Schwaag-Serger, Sylvia (CIRCLE, Lund University); Souza, Vitor (CIRCLE, Lund University); Stihl, Linda (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The sustainability imperative calls for a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and virgin materials use. This requires the transformation of currently unsustainable global and linear value chains (GVCs) to regenerative and circular supply chains (CSCs). To deal with the complexities of such a shift, this paper suggests Arenas of Change as a theoretical perspective and methodological approach, capturing interaction spaces of actors who engage in changing how goods are produced, distributed and consumed, and how waste is recovered and reduced. Actors are conceptualised as being embedded in multi-scalar network, institutional and governance structures, which can enable or hinder change processes. We argue that the possibility of Arenas of Change to effectuate and accelerate shifts from GVCs towards CSCs depends on the realisation of synergies in four domains: i) business logics, models, and innovation; ii) consumption and user practices, iii) modes of governance, and iv) policies and discourses. Arenas of Change are thus a prism through which the interdependencies between domains, multiple scales and levels, and actors' strategies can be analysed. Thereby, Arenas of Change can contribute to theory-building about transformations from global and linear to regenerative and circular supply chains, and conditions that enable, accelerate or hinder such systemic change. Furthermore, by enhancing analytical leverage to comprehensively capture the complexity of such transformations, we propose Arenas of Change as an approach to design impactful interventions, and to evaluate their effects. |
| Keywords: | Circular economy; Global value chains; Business models; Innovation; Consumer practices; Governance; Innovation policy |
| JEL: | L21 O33 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_009 |
| By: | Nasir Iqbal (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Shahzada M. Naeem Nawaz (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Pakistan already has customs rules for foreign-owned bonded petroleum storage. What is missing is a bankable pilot transaction, with SIFC coordinating delivery within 120 days. At the onset of the 2026 Middle Eastern supply disruption, Pakistan lacked a dedicated strategic petroleum reserve. Almost 90 percent of Pakistan's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies entered through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which led to significant restrictions on the strait, Pakistan had to rely on commercial stock and imported shipments. A government review (as reported in the media) on 30 March revealed approximately 23-24 days of diesel stocks and 11 days of crude oil stockpiles. It was noted that petrol availability was satisfactory (Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, 2026a). The stocks mentioned serve the operational needs of the supply chain and are not emergency reserves. Oil marketing companies are required to maintain commercial stocks equivalent to at least 20 days of sales, but that requirement alone does not create a national drawdown mechanism (OGRA, 2016). International comparisons should be made here. International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries are required to maintain emergency stocks equivalent to 90 days of net imports. However, different combinations of government, agency, and industry stocks can be used to comply with this standard (IEA, n.d.). By March 2026, India had 74 days of total reserves and about 60 days of coverage, reflecting a mix of commercial stocks and its own strategic caverns (Government of India, Press Information Bureau, 2026). China does not provide a full series of stock data. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that nearly 1.4 billion barrels of strategic and directed commercial inventories were held at the end of 2025 (U.S. EIA, 2026). Pakistan is among the very few countries deficient in strategic or emergency reserves but has commercial stock. The development of a government-funded reserve is not feasible in the short term. In its May 2026 framework, the government proposed allocating PKR 10 per litre from the current petroleum tax, yielding approximately $700 million annually (Reuters, 2026c). Pakistan's Petroleum Minister independently estimated Pakistan's monthly crude requirement at approximately USD 550 million (Abbasi, 2026). On that basis, crude alone for 90 days would cost roughly USD 1.65 billion. The proposed fund would therefore need about 2.4 years to accumulate the purchase value, before accounting for storage, the required mix of crude and refined products, replenishment, financing and operating costs. Pakistan's USD 7 billion IMF programme further limits the scope for a large, debt-financed stock build-up in the near term (IMF, 2026). This does not mean that Pakistan must wait until it can finance every barrel itself. A practical alternative is to allow foreign suppliers to hold inventory in bonded storage on Pakistani soil, while giving Pakistan a clearly priced contractual option to purchase an agreed share during a declared supply emergency. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:70 |
| By: | Reji K. Joseph (Institute for Studies in Industrial Development); Byungyul Park (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | This volume represents the second collaborative publication produced under the KIET–ISID partnership, which seeks to promote policy dialogue and strengthen economic and industrial cooperation between Korea and India. While the previous volume, Reimagining India–Korea Economic Partnership: Pathways to Deepen Integration, focused primarily on identifying pathways to deepen economic integration between Korea and India, the present volume explores how the bilateral partnership can evolve toward a more comprehensive framework of industrial collaboration in response to changing global economic and geopolitical conditions.<p> Building on this foundation, the volume brings together contributions presented at the 3rd KIET–ISID Industrial Forum under the theme “Korea– India Industrial Collaboration: Driving Shared Growth and Future Prosperity.” The chapters examine key issues shaping the future of Korea–India economic and industrial cooperation and provide policy recommendations for strengthening bilateral collaboration.<p> The first part of the volume explores the evolving Korea–India economic partnership in the context of changing global economic conditions. The chapters examine foreign direct investment trends, emerging geopolitical challenges, and the implications of recent changes in the international economic order for bilateral cooperation.<p> The second part focuses on labor-intensive industries and digital transformation. These chapters discuss opportunities for cooperation in employment-intensive manufacturing sectors, SME development, and emerging digital technologies that can contribute to inclusive growth and industrial upgrading.26 Korea-India Industrial Collaboration: Driving Shared Growth and Future Prosperity The third part examines strategic industries that are expected to play an increasingly important role in the future of Korea–India cooperation. Particular attention is given to sectors such as shipbuilding and steel, where complementarities between the two economies create opportunities for long-term industrial collaboration.<p> The volume concludes with “The Way Forward, ” which synthesizes the key findings and policy recommendations presented throughout the volume and proposes a framework for advancing Korea–India industrial cooperation in the years ahead.<p> We hope that this volume will contribute to a deeper understanding of the opportunities and challenges facing Korea–India relations and serve as a useful reference for policymakers, researchers, industry stakeholders, and all those interested in advancing a stronger and more resilient Korea–India partnership. |
| Keywords: | Korea-India partnership; Korea-India trade; development cooperation; industrial cooperation; foreign direct investment; FDI; economic development |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F13 L52 F23 |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietop:023646 |
| By: | Metin Uyanik (University of Queensland); Charles Walsh (Adelaide University); Duygu Yengin (Adelaide University) |
| Abstract: | We study how a buyer or project sponsor chooses the order in which to approach capacityconstrained counterparties when assembling a fixed resource requirement. Committing resources early is costly, and the capacity of a counterparty approached later is unknown when the first commitment is chosen. Contracting order determines whose capacity remains unresolved, while the first commitment determines how much the later counterparty must provide. The sponsor therefore trades off the cost of committing more resources early against the risk that the remaining requirement cannot be met. She may optimally choose a first commitment that does not guarantee project completion, even though the counterparties’ combined capacity is sufficient in every realization. Maximizing expected surplus therefore need not maximize the probability of completion. Capacity uncertainty also changes the optimal contracting order. A counterparty with greater expected capacity may be approached first because its capacity is then observed before resources are committed, rather than left as the unresolved constraint on project completion. When the project is not completed, unused capacity held by the first counterparty could have covered the shortfall. Non-completion is therefore ex post inefficient, yet it maximizes expected surplus ex ante among the arrangements available under the one-shot sequential protocol. Learning capacities before contracting or allowing the sponsor to return to the first counterparty after a shortfall at sufficiently low cost eliminates non-completion. Thus, contracting order can affect resource allocation and project completion even when the counterparties, aggregate resources, bargaining power, and project value remain unchanged. |
| Keywords: | Sequential contracting; Contracting order; Capacity uncertainty; Resource assembly; Contract design; Project-completion risk |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2026-14 |
| By: | Nisar Ali (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Pakistan holds the world's second-largest salt reserves overall and is the only country with a Himalayan Pink salt reserve. The global market for Himalayan Pink Salt is valued at $500 million - $1.2 billion, spanning food and culinary, wellness, decorative, and other consumer uses. The global market for food and the culinary segment alone was estimated at approximately $500 million in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 3.6%. Despite having huge salt reserves, Pakistan's overall salt export revenue was only $76.7 million in 2024, which is a small fraction of the global Himalayan Salt market value. The reason behind such low revenue is the lack of value addition. Pakistan exports most of its salt in raw form, worth $0.15 to $0.30 per kg, without proper processing and packaging. The same salt, after proper processing, branding, and packaging abroad, is sold for $8 to $15 per kg in the global market. The opportunity lies in the value gap. This study has presented different value capture scenarios along the Himalayan Pink Salt value chain. Through proper processing, packaging, branding, and by targeting high-value product categories such as wellness and decorative segments and premium products, Pakistan can increase the value realization many times over. The real opportunity lies in capturing this value gap. Pakistan needs immediate actions to capture high value through improved infrastructure, building a Pakistani brand, securing a GI tag, targeting high-value products, improving product competitiveness, and prioritizing regional markets. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:69 |
| By: | Nektarios Aslanidis; Aurelio Bariviera; George Kapetanios; Vasilis Sarafidis; Alexia Ventouri |
| Abstract: | We study the anatomy of commodity risk by distinguishing micro, market-level, and economy-wide sources. We develop a two-stage "divide-and-conquer" framework that allows sensitivities to these risk sources to vary across commodities while treating economy-wide risk as latent. The first stage uses defactored instrumental-variable estimation to recover commodity-specific sensitivities to micro and market conditions. The second combines principal components with high-dimensional variable selection to identify an observable representation of macro-financial risk. We then construct Risk Intensity Indices (RIIs), which combine estimated sensitivities with prevailing risk conditions to quantify the relative importance of each risk source on a common scale. Market risk is the largest component on average, accounting for about two fifths of total risk intensity and more than half for energy commodities. Risk intensity is also highly concentrated across individual commodities: the top 20% account for approximately half of micro and market risk intensity, whereas macro risk is more broadly dispersed. The composition of risk varies substantially across sectors and over time, with market risk becoming particularly prominent during episodes of commodity-market stress. Micro and market RIIs also contain information about future volatility and absolute returns. These findings provide investors, risk managers, and policymakers with a diagnostic of where commodity risk is concentrated, which risk layers are most important, and how their importance changes over time. More broadly, our divide-and-conquer framework provides a flexible approach to decomposing layered risk in settings where common risk is latent. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.00581 |
| By: | Chan, Kenddrick; Ma, Songruowen; Hao, Ce |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141089 |
| By: | Bilal Aftab (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Shahzada M. Naeem Nawaz (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Rubina Ilyas (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The possible gas supply via the Iran-Pakistan pipeline is still considered a strategically significant option. However, it cannot be considered under the same conditions as were present when the agreement was signed in 2009. The possible supply of 750 MMCFD of gas could provide an additional energy source, but its economics and absorptive capacity must first be demonstrated before further consideration. The proposed pricing formula would mean that the Brent equivalent slope would be around 13.45 percent. At a Brent price of $75, this translates into $10.09 per MMBtu and the obligation to purchase almost $2.84 billion worth of gas on an annual basis. However, the key question is the total cost of delivery via pipeline (including all costs associated with construction, financing, operations, security, insurance, losses in the system, and exchange risk) versus the marginal/avoidable cost of currently used LNG supplies. Legal sanctions and supply risks remain unresolved. Iran has threatened arbitration with reported exposure of up to $18 billion, a figure that has not been independently verified or adjudicated. The limited sanctions relief issued in June 2026 (OFAC General License X) was itself revoked and replaced by a wind-down license (General License X1) on July 7, 2026, underscoring that no authorization to date has established clearance for pipeline gas, construction, or project financing. The proposed way forward would be conditional revival, subject to independent legal and technical review, sanctions clearance, renegotiated commercial terms, verified demand, and milestone-based investment. Pakistan should consider negotiating a settlement and developing a solid defense against the threat of litigation, in case these steps are not taken in the next 12-18 months. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:74 |
| By: | Simshauser, P. |
| Abstract: | This article examines whether zonal average-price wind swaps, more accurately defined as Asian wind swaps, are a 'bankable' instrument. Specifically, can a derivative that references the wind fleet's average price underwrite a bespoke project financed new entrant wind farm in Australia’s National Electricity Market? Prima facie, long -dated Asian swaps referencing the wind fleet’s dispatch-weighted average price present as a material departure from convention, viz. site-specific fixed price (run-of-plant) Power Purchase Agreements. Using South Australia as a deliberately demanding test case, ten years of chronologically matched 30-minute spot-price and wind-production data are block-bootstrapped into 10, 000 synthetic years of market data. This data is the n utilised within a hedge optimisation and stochastic project finance models across heterogeneous wind farms with explicit strike -price calibration and debt-sizing to stress-test the 'bankability' of Asian wind swaps. Results confirm when hedge quantities are optimised, and strike prices calibrated to entry costs, Asian wind swaps reduce revenue volatility and support project finance, with debt sizing at broadly equivalent levels to a conventional PPA. Findings suggest an Asian wind swap can plausibly replace bespoke government-originated CfDs, which in turn raises the prospect of seamless divisible re-trading and the creation of liquid secondary markets – a necessary precondition for a healthy retail supplier market. |
| Keywords: | Renewables, Energy-Only Markets, Project Finance, Asian Wind Derivatives, Asian Swaps |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2676 |
| By: | Nader Karimi; Erfan Salavati; Hojatollah Adibi |
| Abstract: | We study the price formation of a storable commodity when the decision to sell or keep the commodity is treated as an embedded storage option. The price process is not imposed exogenously. Instead, a candidate price function determines the demand dynamics, while the optimal stopping value generated by those dynamics produces a new price function. We call a fixed point of this feedback mechanism an endogenous storage-option equilibrium (ESOE), using a separate acronym to distinguish the continuous-time construction studied here from the stationary rational expectations equilibrium terminology of the classical competitive-storage literature. A global existence result is established on a compact admissible class under a transparent drift--discount condition. The argument avoids the interval-by-interval extension of local fixed points and does not claim uniqueness from Schauder's theorem. We then characterize the equilibrium as a nonlinear obstacle problem and develop a monotone finite-difference/policy-iteration method with an asymptotically consistent far-field boundary condition. The numerical analysis separates fixed-point convergence from spatial discretization error and is supplemented by Monte Carlo validation, scaling diagnostics, comparative statics, and the distribution of optimal selling times. The results clarify how demand elasticity, discounting, depreciation, and volatility jointly determine the storage premium and the selling threshold. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.29700 |
| By: | Iosif Zimbidis; Ronnie Sircar |
| Abstract: | On April 20, 2020, the May front-month WTI oil futures contract, one day before its expiration date, opened near $\$17/$barrel and dropped far below zero in a single trading day, reaching an intraday low of $-\$40.32$ and settling at $-\$37.63$. Such market behavior was unforeseen at the time. This event, and the March 2022 nickel squeeze, illustrate how constraints on physical delivery create pressure to close futures positions and distort futures prices. We develop a feedback model that connects the resulting price distortion to a roll option, and to the imbalance between delivery-constrained long and short positions. Under lognormal benchmark dynamics, the roll-option value is shown to satisfy a pricing PDE which is nonlinear because its payoff depends on the observed futures price, which itself includes the feedback correction. Remarkably, in both cases, there is an explicit solution in terms of classical Black-Scholes-Margrabe exchange option formulas, up to solving a scalar equation. We show this allows that prices may go negative under distortion of a positive-price lognormal model. An analogous construction applies when the lognormal base is switched to Bachelier normal dynamics. Illustrations based on WTI and nickel show the imbalance required to reproduce the extreme event prices under the benchmark assumptions. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.00951 |
| By: | Lewoye Bantie Baylie (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Italy); Anna Maria Ferragina (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Italy); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Dept of Economics and Center for Statistics, Georg-August Universitaet Goettingen, Göttingen, Germany & Dept of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Stefano Iandolo (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence that carbon leakage under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) operates through global supply-chain linkages. Exploiting the phased implementation of the EU ETS as a natural experiment, we construct a granular country–sector–year panel combining bilateral trade data with multi-regional input–output tables to estimate the effect of carbon regulation on trade in intermediate goods and embodied emissions. We find that in sectors covered by the ETS, imports of intermediate goods from non-ETS countries are around 8% higher, and the carbon content of those imports is 11% higher in manufacturing, the sector group in which the scheme’s coverage and traded intermediate inputs overlap. The main results are based on Poisson pseudomaximumlikelihood estimates, complemented with a log-linear specification that provides an exact additive decomposition of the effect. On the export side, the carbon content of regulated sectors’ shipments falls in manufacturing, and the decomposition attributes that decline to a reduction in the volume exported rather than to cleaner production. Our analysis also shows the existence of sectoral heterogeneity. Sectors with stronger upstream and downstream supply-chain integration import less additional embodied carbon, whereas sectors with weaker linkages show larger leakage effects. The composition result is corroborated by a staggered difference-in-differences specification on the intensive margin. The results identify embodied emissions in intermediate inputs as a key channel of carbon leakage and suggest that effective climate policy requires well designed carbon border adjustments with supply-chain-sensitive allowance allocation mechanisms, and stronger international policy coordination. |
| Keywords: | EU ETS; Carbon leakage; Global value chains; Staggered differencein- differences; Event study; PPML. |
| JEL: | F14 F18 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/10 |
| By: | Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura |
| Abstract: | Understanding how supply chains endogenously transform requires a parametric model of processing networks with non-neutral substitution elasticities. While the Cascaded CES (CCES) production function provides a rigorous framework for these multi-layered linkages, dynamically calibrating its structural parameters from time-series data constitutes a highly non-convex inverse optimization problem. Enforcing the strict microeconomic concavity constraint causes standard monolithic approach to fail due to extreme ill-conditioning and the curse of dimensionality. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we propose a novel structure-exploiting algorithm. By leveraging the physical upstreamness topology of the network, our hybrid heuristic alternates between a vertical cascade-sequential descent and a horizontal block coordinate descent. Our framework successfully calibrates the fundamental elasticities of a 10-sector marcoeconomic model of the United States, providing a tractable computational engine to fully endogenize and predict complex supply-chain transformations. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.15452 |
| By: | Paz, Lourenco (Baylor University) |
| Abstract: | This survey examines how labor provisions in preferential trade agreements affect trade, worker outcomes, and the governance of global production, organizing the literature around three generations of work. An earlier generation debated whether labor clauses were social protection or disguised protectionism. A second, using improved coding and structural gravity methods, finds no systematic trade-reducing effect: results are neutral or conditionally positive, though robustness to staggered-treatment methods remains untested. A third turns to implementation, arguing that provisions matter most when monitoring bodies, complaint systems, and due-diligence obligations change incentives for governments, firms, and suppliers. Across the literature, the most consistent evidence concerns legal commitments, institutional capacity, and enforcement credibility rather than broad wage gains. The survey's contribution is to read these findings as vantage points on a single transformation: labor provisions are no longer peripheral clauses inside trade agreements but components of a wider system linking states, firms, workers, and supply chains, whose effects remain only partially measured and only partially identified. |
| Keywords: | due diligence, enforcement and compliance, global value chains, labor provisions, preferential trade agreements, trade and labor standards |
| JEL: | J83 F16 F55 K33 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18937 |
| By: | Dedić, Ilma; Husaković, Dijana |
| Abstract: | It is an increasing challenge to find loyal employees and keep them in the company due to various challenges in the labor market. The metal sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina plays one of the key roles in the development of the economy. Physical demands of the job, safety at work, lack of qualified labor are some of the challenges in this sector. It is important to determine what motivates employees in this sector to remain part of the company and not decide to change jobs. In this research, the primary goal is to determine the commitment of employees to the company in the metal sector. Employee commitment will be observed through three basic elements: affective, continuation and normative commitment. As part of the primary research, a survey questionnaire was used as a data collection form, the research was conducted on a random sample composed of medium and large enterprises that are spatially dispersed on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and operate within the metal sector. In the analysis of the results, non-parametric statistical methods were used to examine differences and relationships between variables in the sample. The results show a moderate level of organizational commitment, with the most pronounced affective component, indicating a stronger emotional attachment of employees to the organization, with no significant differences in the level of commitment by gender |
| Keywords: | employee commitment, metal sector |
| JEL: | M10 M29 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343417 |
| By: | Nabeel Ahmad Saidd |
| Abstract: | Financial time series evolve across multiple temporal resolutions, challenging forecasting systems to incorporate newly available information without repeatedly recomputing unchanged representations. We introduce HARN, a Hierarchical Associative Resonance Network for event-driven multi-timeframe forecasting. HARN maintains persistent representations across temporal levels and updates each level only when its corresponding completed bar becomes available. The architecture combines causal multi-scale temporal encoding, gated associative memory, cross-level resonance, and hierarchical evidence aggregation, with forecasting performed in basis-point space and reconstructed to the original price scale. We evaluate HARN on four assets spanning equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets using multiple random seeds and component ablations. HARN achieves competitive reconstructed-price forecasting errors against single-timeframe PatchTST and TimeXer baselines, while ablations reveal the effects of removing individual components across assets and timeframes. A code-level audit further examines consistency between the implementation and the defined event-driven causal protocol. The results position HARN as a persistent multi-timeframe forecasting framework rather than evidence of universal predictive superiority. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.26822 |
| By: | Arthur Steve Tchoneteck; Tingjia Zhang; Frederi Viens |
| Abstract: | Commodity option surfaces contain information beyond the at-the-money volatility level. We develop a surface-driven stochastic-volatility framework for soybean futures options using daily Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Volatility Index (CME CVOL) indicators from October 2013 to August 2025. The ATM level and convexity are positive, right-skewed, and well described by log Ornstein Uhlenbeck dynamics, whereas the additive skew changes sign and is modeled on the real line by an Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. These empirical features motivate a joint mean-reverting surface-factor system. Under a log OU futures volatility model, leading-order smile relations map the ATM level to the latent volatility state, convexity to an effective surface-implied volatility- of-volatility state, and skew to an effective leverage state. We derive the associated risk-neutral pricing equation and Feynman Kac representation, benchmark prices by Monte Carlo simulation, validate the pricing PDE by finite differences, and train a neural-network surrogate for fast repeated valuation. The empirical results show substantial variation in surface states across market regimes, with the 2021 La Nina drought window exhibiting elevated volatility and skewness. The numerical results show close agreement between finite-difference and Monte Carlo prices over the validation grid, while the neural-network surrogate reproduces the pricing map at substantially lower inference cost. Overall, the results support the use of level, skew, and convexity jointly as dynamic inputs for commodity-option pricing and model diagnostics. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.27138 |