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on Mining |
| By: | Joseph Nyangon |
| Abstract: | The global push for electric vehicles (EVs) has sharply increased demand for critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium, creating a tension between rapid industrial growth and long-term sustainability. Extraction is concentrated in a few regions -- notably the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chile, and Argentina -- where it has produced serious socio-environmental harms, including ecosystem degradation, labour exploitation, and the displacement of Indigenous communities. In the DRC, cobalt mining is frequently linked to child labour and hazardous working conditions; in Chile, lithium extraction intensifies water scarcity and threatens local agriculture and biodiversity. Policy instruments such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) seek to promote ethical sourcing, but an extraction-driven model continues to deepen global inequalities. This chapter examines the contested temporalities of the transition, in which the short-term economic incentives of extraction conflict with longer-term environmental and social goals. It argues for a place-based framework built on community-centred governance, sustainable mining practices, and circular-economy strategies, including recycling and material substitution, to align resource security with equity and ensure that the shift to EVs does not reproduce the injustices it aims to address. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.24356 |
| By: | Amit Kumar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the geopolitical structures governing critical mineral markets and assesses how they shape India's exposure to supply disruptions, price volatility, and strategic competition using the Dependency Risk Index (DRI). By analysing where and how India sources key minerals, the study identifies a layered risk profile encompassing resource concentration, trade dependencies, and geopolitical leverage. The paper argues that informed, data-driven policy design, spanning overseas mineral partnerships, domestic recycling, substitution, and international cooperation, will be central to mitigating these risks. Decisions taken in the current decade will play a decisive role in determining India’s energy sovereignty, industrial competitiveness, and global positioning in the geopolitics of electrification by 2030 and beyond. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, dependency risk index, mineral trade, critical mineral geopolitics, trade flows, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:65 |
| By: | Francesco Crespi; Nicolò Geri; Dario Guarascio; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between technological capabilities, import dependency, and environmental policies, focusing on the lithium-ion battery supply chain, a critical sector for the net-zero transition. First, we develop an original analytical framework that integrates two recent streams of literature, one focusing on the acceleration of the green transition and the other on structural dependencies and technological sovereignty, to examine potential trade-offs between these objectives. Second, we develop a strategic intelligence analysis of the lithium-ion battery supply chain, allowing us to quantify import dependencies and technological capacity gaps at a highly granular product and technology level. Third, we examine how technological capabilities influence import dependency, showing under what conditions technological upgrading strengthens competitive positions and mitigates dependency. Finally, we analyse how environmental policy stringency relates to import dependency. Our findings suggest that technological upgrading can reduce dependencies without compromising environmental goals, so that the presumed trade-off between the net-zero transition and structural dependencies does not necessarily hold. In contrast, a well-designed policy mix, aligning environmental objectives with targeted innovation and industrial policies, can enhance both resilience and the acceleration towards the net-zero transition. |
| Keywords: | strategic dependencies, net-zero transition, lithium-ion batteries, import dependency, technological capabilities, environmental policy stringency |
| JEL: | F14 F18 O13 O33 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ter:wpaper:00199 |
| By: | Valérie Mignon; Carl Grekou; Emmanuel Hache |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the historical determinants of real mineral commodity prices using a structurally identified vector autoregression (SVAR) with incomplete identification. Drawing on a large sample of mineral commodities covering more than a century of data, we identify supply, aggregate demand, and metal-specific demand shocks using economically motivated prior distributions. Historical decompositions show that price fluctuations are predominantly driven by demand-side forces, with metal-specific demand shocks accounting for the largest share of variation. Aggregate demand shocks also play an important role, particularly during periods of global instability, while the contribution of supply shocks is more limited and tends to decline over time. Elasticity estimates indicate that prices respond more strongly and more persistently to demand shocks than to supply shocks, whereas supply responses remain weak in the short run. We also document substantial heterogeneity across mineral commodities and over time, reflecting differences in adjustment mechanisms across markets. Overall, our findings highlight the central role of demand in mineral commodity price formation and provide little support for the view that increasing scarcity has been the dominant force shaping observed price dynamics over the period considered. Instead, fluctuations in mineral commodity prices appear to be primarily driven by demand-side factors rather than by tightening supply conditions. |
| Keywords: | Mineral commodities; Commodity price dynamics; Resource scarcity; Structural VAR; Historical decomposition |
| JEL: | Q31 Q32 C32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-12 |
| By: | Bindseil, Ulrich; Daskalova, Svetla; Senner, Richard |
| Abstract: | We analyse the portfolio-reallocation incentives faced by NIIP-surplus economies under cross-border seizure risk. Assets, such as gold, can be physically imported and held domestically in contrast to financial claims on other jurisdictions. Gold purchases not only reduce the NIIP but can also drive steep increases in gold prices. We review the history of gold as an international settlement asset, the evolution of financial sanctions, and the global distribution of NIIP and gold holdings. We calibrate a simple model to recent gold mining cost curves and show that (assuming a current account balance of zero) closing one trillion dollars of NIIP per year through newly mined gold could push prices above USD 8, 500 per ounce, while a ten-trillion-dollar target could be consistent with USD 67, 000 per ounce. In an extended model, NIIP surplus countries face a trade-off between rapid NIIP reduction, with subsequent valuation losses, versus gradual adjustment, which tempers price impacts but lengthens the period of exposure to cross-border seizure risks. We also model the case of an elastic supply from mobilization of existing private holdings in the rest of the world via a simple portfolio re-allocation channel. |
| Keywords: | Gold, foreign reserves, net international investment position |
| JEL: | E3 E5 G1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:341430 |
| By: | Behnaz Minooei Fard; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo; Willi Semmler |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the dynamics of the global rare earth element (REE) market, with a focus on China's dominant role as the primary supplier, which is crucial for the energy transition and digitalization. Using a game-theoretic approach, the research examines a potential duopoly market structure that may emerge over time, as well as potential shifts in supply from China to other countries in this scenario. It considers China's low marginal costs and factors like resource extraction and discoveries. Additionally, the study examines the strategic market interactions, the role of technological advancements, and policy support in shaping market outcomes. The methodology incorporates the assumption that agents have limited foresight and use a learned value function to strategically assess outcomes based on their own and others' actions while accounting for environmental constraints. |
| Keywords: | Rare earth elements, Game theory, Duopoly, Known reserves dynamics, Policy support, Relative scarcity, NMPC, Reinforcement learning |
| JEL: | C61 C7 Q3 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ter:wpaper:00184 |
| By: | Jan Mutke; Jonas Finke; Katharina Esser; Heidi Heinrichs |
| Abstract: | Decarbonising energy systems reduces emissions and fossil fuel dependency, but expanding renewables increases demands for critical raw materials. Most energy system models, however, neglect material demands, putting the material feasibility of energy scenarios at question. We combine a systematic review of 59 highly decarbonised European energy system modelling studies with a quantitative ex-post assessment of material demands for 5 key technologies and 19 materials. We find that material demands exceed Europe's population-based shares of current global reserves for seven materials (Ga, In, Ir, Te; less pronounced for Ag, Se, V), in particular if multiple sectors of the energy system are considered. Competing non-energy demand further amplifies the scarcity, while technological innovation can either alleviate or intensify it. We conclude that energy efficiency, recycling, expanding reserves and technological innovation may only partly address the identified shortages and call for energy sufficiency measures to achieve sustainability in the energy-material nexus. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.12201 |
| By: | Paola Tubaro (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article introduces the concept of the 'dual footprint' as a heuristic device to capture the commonalities and interdependencies between the different impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on the natural and social surroundings that supply resources for its production and use. Two in-depth case studies, each illustrating international flows of raw materials and of data work services, portray the AI industry as a value chain that spans national boundaries and perpetuates inherited global inequalities. The countries that drive AI development generate a massive demand for inputs and trigger social costs that, through the value chain, largely fall on more peripheral actors. The arrangements in place distribute the costs and benefits of AI unequally, resulting in unsustainable practices and preventing the upward mobility of more disadvantaged countries. The dual footprint grasps how the environmental and social dimensions of the dual footprint emanate from similar underlying socioeconomic processes and geographical trajectories. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, value chains, data work, labour footprint, material footprint, Artificial intelligence |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05384319 |
| By: | Halkos, George; Zisiadou, Argyro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the “Petroleum Paradox", wherein legacy hydrocarbon reliance has shifted from an engine of industrial growth into a primary vector of macroeconomic instability and geopolitical exposure for importing nations. As contemporary conflicts collapse traditional paradigms of "complex interdependence", this study evaluates two distinct energy shocks: the fixed-infrastructure pipeline crisis of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the elastic maritime chokepoint crisis of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. To combat the resulting "fossilflation", price volatility taxes and severe balance of payments strains, global capital is executing a strategy of Dependency Inversion, re-engineering national energy architectures to convert uncontrollable foreign operational risks into secure, domestic capital assets. Ultimately, this paper demonstrates that modern hybrid warfare, rather than ecological mandates alone, acts as the primary structural accelerator of the energy transition. This pathway bifurcates into a highly strategic, dual-pronged domestic regime: decentralized, variable renewable networks acting as an agile security shield, and high-capacity nuclear infrastructure (incorporating gigawatt-scale and small modular reactors) serving as a weather-independent base load anchor to permanently secure national sovereignty and macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Energy security; energy crisis; petroleum paradox; geopolitical risk premium. |
| JEL: | E32 F51 Q34 Q42 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129631 |
| By: | Princewill Okwoche (Namibia University of Science and Technology, Windhoek, Namibia; School of Economics, University of Cape Town; Environment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Milan Scasny (Environment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Improving energy efficiency is a cornerstone of the EU Fit-for-55, competitiveness, and energy-security strategy, yet performance across the new member states remains uneven despite price convergence and common regulatory frameworks. This study examines how energy prices, energy price uncertainty, and regulatory quality jointly shape sectoral energy efficiency in transition economies. We estimate a Shephard energy distance frontier model for seven new EU member states across ten industrial sectors over 1995–2015, modelling energy inefficiency directly as a function of these determinants and discrete reform episodes. Methodologically, we employ a consistent true fixed effects stochastic frontier estimated via the pairwise-difference estimator of Belotti and Ilardi (2018), which resolves the incidental parameters problem and disentangles inefficiency from unobserved heterogeneity. To our knowledge, this is the first joint one-step frontier estimation of price, price uncertainty, and governance as direct drivers of inefficiency, closing a gap between energy-pricing theory and applied frontier econometrics. Average efficiency is relatively high, with scope for roughly 21% energy savings from eliminating existing inefficiencies. Higher real energy prices significantly reduce inefficiency, confirming the price-discipline hypothesis. Energy price uncertainty robustly raises inefficiency, with a markedly stronger effect during the pre-accession adjustment phase and a weaker effect in high energy-intensive sectors. Regulatory quality is, counterintuitively, associated with higher transient inefficiency, plausibly reflecting adjustment costs. Results are robust to a balanced sub-sample and to Brent-based prices extending coverage to 2022 and eight countries. The findings imply that stabilising and credibly anchoring price signals matter more than raising average prices alone. |
| Keywords: | Energy prices, energy price uncertainty, stochastic energy distance frontier, regulatory governance, energy efficiency |
| JEL: | C23 O52 Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_15 |
| By: | Ansar, Muhammad Uzair |
| Abstract: | This research covers Qatar's LNG-driven export economy from 2010 to 2025, with a scenario analysis for a supply shock in 2026. The dataset draws on GDP figures from the World Bank national accounts¹, total export values from World Bank trade indicators², LNG production volumes from the Energy Institute Statistical Review³, and LNG price series from Macrotrends Asia LNG (JKM) data⁴. The full compiled dataset is in Appendix A. The defining pattern across the sixteen years is a stark contrast: LNG export volumes were broadly stable — rising gradually from around 2, 746 MMBtu million in 2010 to roughly 3, 700–3, 900 MMBtu million by the mid2010s and holding there — while revenues swung from $16.42 billion in 2020 to $129.88 billion in 2022. The LNG Export-to-GDP ratio mirrored this: up from 20.77% in 2010 to 55.03% in 2022, then back to ~20% by 2024–2025 — tracking the global LNG price cycle almost exactly. At its peak, more than half of Qatar's entire GDP was effectively attributable to a single commodity whose price it does not control. The 2026 attack on Ras Laffan introduces a different kind of problem. A 17% capacity reduction means annual LNG revenue losses of around $20 billion — not because prices have fallen, but because the infrastructure to produce and liquefy the gas is no longer fully operational. The LNG/GDP ratio will remain suppressed until capacity is rebuilt, which could take three to five years. |
| Keywords: | Qatar LNG |
| JEL: | E23 E27 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129324 |
| By: | Arvai, Kai; Coimbra, Nuno; Pinchetti, Marco |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of international investors' portfolio choices between gold and sovereign bonds in an environment shaped by economic and geopolitical shocks. We develop an endogenous portfolio choice model where reserve safety has a political dimension — sovereign bonds issued by the dominant reserve country are more liquid but exposed to the issuer's sanctions authority, while gold offers sanctions protection at the cost of lower liquidity. Our model implies that US convenience yields fall during periods of high sanction risk, as safe-asset demand fragments along geopolitical lines. Empirically, periods of elevated geopolitical risk coincide with higher gold prices and 10-year Treasury yields. In such periods, the average composition of official reserves shifts toward gold, with countries less aligned with the US in UN voting patterns increasing their holdings by a greater extent. |
| Keywords: | Dominant currency; Safe assets; Sanctions; Gold |
| JEL: | E42 F02 F33 N10 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21575 |
| By: | Luiz de Mello; Inés Dezcallar; Sean Dougherty |
| Abstract: | As countries around the world raise defence spending, understanding the implications of a defence production footprint for local economies is becoming increasingly important for policy. Yet comparable evidence remains limited, partly because defence procurement data are rarely available at the local level. This paper studies the economic footprint of defence production using a new measure of defence-industrial presence across TL3-level localities in 15 European countries. Rather than estimating local fiscal multipliers, the paper identifies localities that host defence production establishments and their supply chain and assesses whether those localities display systematically different economic outcomes. The empirical strategy estimates the long-run conditional association between a defence industrial presence and output using panel Dynamic OLS. The paper also examines whether the association is stronger in more innovative places and computes impulse response functions based on local projections to assess whether localities hosting defence-related production have experienced different output trajectories after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Results show defence industrial presence is positively and significantly associated with higher regional income levels. The findings provide insights to inform debates on defence spending, industrial capacity and local economic development. |
| Keywords: | defence industrial base, DOLS, impulse responses, innovation, local economies |
| JEL: | H56 H77 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ctpaab:54-en |
| By: | Silvian M. Radke; Philipp C. Verpoort; Falko Ueckerdt; Felix M\"usgens |
| Abstract: | Despite growing concerns over energy security, infrastructure planning and modelling for emerging green fuel supply chains often neglect risks from supply disruptions. Using a stochastic optimisation model of EU hydrogen imports, we show that 'naive' infrastructure planning results in welfare losses of 12 % (24 billion EUR) compared to risk-aware planning that anticipates supply disruptions. Despite requiring higher upfront investments, anticipatory planning achieves welfare levels close to those of an idealised system without disruptions, but entails a markedly different infrastructure configuration. Two complementary resilience strategies emerge: diversification across import corridors and strategic over-investment. This leads to increased intra-European transport capacity, a broader set of import pipelines, and investments in costly shipping terminals for hydrogen carriers. Our results show that incorporating supply risk considerations into infrastructure planning helps prevent the structural vulnerabilities seen in fossil fuel systems when designing future hydrogen supply chains. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.09190 |
| By: | Ralf Martin; Maxwell Read; Arjun Shah; Anna Valero; Dennis Verhoeven |
| Abstract: | Spillovers from innovation can boost regional growth |
| Keywords: | Green Growth, UK Economy |
| Date: | 2026–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:734 |
| By: | Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Emil Thomas johny; Ashok Gulati; Sachchida Nand |
| Abstract: | This policy brief argues that diversification of import sources and products is essential to reduce excessive dependence on a limited set of countries, particularly in geopolitically volatile regions. Complementary measures include encouraging overseas investments in fertiliser minerals and production assets, accelerating domestic exploration of fertiliser resources, and rationalising regulatory and pricing frameworks to improve efficiency in nutrient use. Policy reforms such as the direct transfer of fertiliser subsidies to farmers and gradual price deregulation of macro nutrients is critical to promote balanced fertiliser application while easing fiscal pressures. It will plug leakages too, which are substantial (about 20 percent). If this seems too bold a reform in the short run, an alternative would be to put quantitative restrictions on sales based on farm size, cropping patterns, and recommended nutrient doses issued by State Agricultural Universities (SAU). This can be done with the help of AgriStack that government has been building for quite some time. The third option would be to at least bring urea under the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme. So, in brief, either carry out full-fledged price reforms ensuring in advance DBT to farmers, or put quantitative restrictions in accordance with SAU recommendations, or bring urea also under NBS. Together, these measures can enhance the resilience of India’s fertiliser supply chains and safeguard the stability of its food production system in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. As they say, never lose an opportunity to reform when a serious crisis hits. And the time for that is now. |
| Keywords: | Fertiliser Security, Geopolitical Risk, Import Dependence, Supply Chain Vulnerability, Urea, Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP), Muriate of Potash (MOP), Food Security, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:66 |
| By: | Andrei Kaukin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Anastasia Levchenko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2025, the trend component of the Russian industrial production index showed signs of slowing growth. In H1 2025, stagnation emerged as a result of mixed trends’ |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production, external and internal demand, GDP structure |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2026-1620 |
| By: | Gilles A Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | The rapid evolution of civilian-origin technologies repurposed for defense is reshaping the foundations of logistical advantage and altering the conditions under which armed forces operate. Modern missions rely on an extensive ecosystem of infrastructures-port terminals, cloud services, data platforms, and civilian contractors-whose reliability frequently lies beyond the authority of public institutions. This environment gives rise to shadow logistics, a network of civilian systems largely absent from conventional doctrine yet capable of producing significant operational disruptions when failures occur. Case studies show that some dark assets, whether physical or informational, can act as multipliers of effectiveness while simultaneously creating systemic vulnerabilities exploitable by state and non-state actors, including terrorist groups. Research on critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, and supply chain governance reveals how civilian systems may become instruments of leverage or coercion, sometimes unintentionally. The analysis also exposes a persistent blind spot in planning processes, notably the limited consideration given to extraterritorial digital services, commercial data brokers, and globally distributed cloud architectures that underpin essential functions. Strengthening logistical resilience requires more precise mapping of interdependencies, more robust public-private partnerships, fuller integration of civilian systems into multi-domain operations, and sovereign capabilities capable of sustaining continuity during periods of geopolitical tension. |
| Keywords: | Critical infrastructure, Dark assets, Security vulnerabilities, Shadow logistics, Civilian contractors |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05640624 |
| By: | Marco De Simone; Dario Guarascio; Jelena Reljic |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of robotisation on workplace safety in EU manufacturing sectors between 2011 and 2019. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable approach and find that robot adoption reduces both injuries and fatalities. Specifically, a 10% increase in robot adoption is associated with a 0.066% reduction in fatalities and a 1.96% decrease in injuries. Our findings highlight the context-dependent nature of these effects. The safety benefits of robotisation materialise only in high-tech sectors and in countries where industrial relations provide strong worker protections. In contrast, in traditional industries and countries with weaker institutional frameworks, these benefits remain largely unrealised. The results are robust to several sensitivity tests. |
| Keywords: | EU, robotisation, technology, workplace safety, injuries, fatalities, industrial relations |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J28 J50 J81 L60 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ter:wpaper:00188 |