|
on Mining |
| By: | Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Saadaoui, Jamel (University Paris 8, IEE, LED, Saint-Denis, Franc); Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | We develop novel, stage-specific, geopolitical risk indicators to examine how geopolitical risk is distributed across the supply-chain for lithium and copper, two minerals which are vital for low-carbon technologies. We find that refining is the geopolitical bottleneck for both minerals, reflecting that refining capacity is highly concentrated in China. We examine refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and AI-driven productivity gains as complementary policy instruments for mitigating exposure to geopolitical risk at the refining stage. We show that reducing China’s refining share substantially lowers refining-stage geopolitical risk, with larger gains for lithium than for copper. We find that stockpiling plays a critical role in buffering near-term geopolitical shocks, but significantly increases the projected shortfall in copper and lithium which is needed to realize the clean energy transition under alternative Net Zero pathways. We demonstrate that AI-driven productivity gains will be needed to narrow the projected supply gaps for both minerals. Our results suggest that ensuring effective security of critical minerals requires a coordinated policy mix, combining refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and productivity-enhancing technological change |
| Keywords: | Critical Minerals; Copper; Lithium; Geopolitical Risk; Refining bottlenecks; |
| JEL: | C14 Q20 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:62814634 |
| By: | Fabio Artuso; Julian L. Clarke; Lionel Fontagné; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Non-tariff measures (NTMs), especially sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), have become crucial components of climate, industrial, and regulatory policy, impacting the majority of global trade. However, quantifying their effects on trade is challenging because NTMs are usually non-discriminatory and challenging to identify in standard gravity frameworks. Using a multi-stage structural gravity estimation strategy combined with a control-function correction for endogeneity, we estimate the trade elasticities and ad valorem equivalents of NTMs at the HS6 level for over 5, 000 products. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in NTM trade costs, especially in environmentally relevant sectors, such as clean technologies and electric vehicles. These estimates can inform regulatory impact assessments and general-equilibrium analyses of climate-aligned trade policies. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff measures: Ad valorem equivalents; Environmental goods; Critical minerals |
| JEL: | F14 F13 F18 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:273 |
| By: | Ziaba, Isaac Haruna; Aidoo, Richard |
| Abstract: | How do state and non-state competing economic actors and interests interact over mineralised land disputes? This research inductively shows how land-use disputes between large-scale mining (LSM) companies and artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM) are intervened by the African state. We explore a grounded theory of Sino-African neopatrimonialism to contend that collusions between Chinese clients and ‘uninsulated’ African patrons can unleash a powerful cartel that illegitimately allocates resources to Chinese companies, resulting in forced eviction of competing local entrepreneurs. In illustrating this abstraction with the Ghanaian case, we show that African patrons intervene in resource disputes between Chinese clients and African miners by setting up asymmetric structures and deploying coercive bureaucratic instruments that negotiate Chinese clients’ unfettered access to mineral resources while compelling dissenting ASM into capitulation to guarantee private rent accrual to elites. The findings demonstrate how African patrons device approaches such as forced eviction as a political means to their economic end, and the resultant local popular fury to offer a contextualisation of the growing China-Africa discourse. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Ghana; China; mining; ASM; Sino-African neopatrimonialism; elite clientelism |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137719 |
| By: | Utamawati, Herlina; Yusuf, Alia |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is abundant in the transition-critical mineral nickel. In 2020 the government banned exports of raw nickel to capitalise on its value at home and in global supply chains as it transitions to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy. But the country also faces environmental and social trade-offs in the exploitation of this mineral. Lessons can be drawn from the Indonesian example in other countries facing similar resource and sustainable growth dilemmas. |
| JEL: | L81 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137796 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | Governments periodically acquire capital-intensive infrastructure projects that private actors are unable or unwilling to complete, often under conditions where conventional net present value (NPV) analysis indicates strongly negative project economics. Such interventions are typically framed as political rescues or fiscal failures, with limited attention paid to how forward-looking project value evolves once construction risk is resolved. This paper examines the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX), acquired by the Government of Canada in 2018, as a detailed empirical case of infrastructure completion under state ownership. Using publicly available financial statements, the paper constructs a balance-sheet Net Present Value Profile that evaluates the project at successive points in time based solely on remaining future cash flows, treating all past expenditures as economically irrelevant for valuation. The results show that TMX’s forward-looking NPV was strongly negative at the time of acquisition but became decisively positive as construction risk was eliminated, stabilizing at a high steady-state value upon commissioning. This transition occurs without any revision to historical costs or operating assumptions and is robust to discount-rate variation. The analysis demonstrates how state intervention can function as risk absorption rather than capital misallocation, converting uncertainty into a valuable operating asset. By distinguishing completion dynamics from project failure cases, the paper clarifies why static ex ante NPV calculations can mischaracterize the economic logic of public intervention in long-lived infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | Net present value profile; infrastructure finance; construction risk; state ownership; public investment; balance-sheet valuation; project completion; risk absorption; pipeline economics; sovereign asset management |
| JEL: | D81 G31 H54 L32 L95 |
| Date: | 2026–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127855 |
| By: | Emilie Couture |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen is increasingly presented as a key solution for decarbonization in the context of the energy transition. This paper investigates how financial markets perceive hydrogen-related companies and whether these assets display distinct financial behaviors compared to other clean energy sectors—namely solar, wind, and renewable energy producers. Using daily data and a multi-faceted econometric approach, accounting for non-linearities, long-run dynamics, and time-varying correlations, we analyze both returns and dynamic correlations of hydrogen stocks relative to other energy segments. Our results show that hydrogen indices behave more like speculative technological assets than mature renewable energy sources. Their returns are more sensitive to financial stress indicators (e.g., the VIX) and to the performance of technology stocks. Dynamic correlations with other energy sectors are shaped by macroeconomic conditions: oil prices act as a synchronizing factor, while gold increases returns but reduces correlations. In contrast, geopolitical and financial uncertainty tends to increase comovements, reflecting flight-to-safety behavior. These findings highlight hydrogen’s hybrid identity in financial markets—volatile, innovation-driven, and not yet integrated into the traditional renewable asset class, raising implications for both investors and policymakers regarding the financial interconnectedness and strategic support of the hydrogen sector within the broader clean energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen, Renewable energy, Asset pricing, Stock returns, Cross-market correlations |
| JEL: | G12 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-7 |
| By: | Niccolo Marco Eugenio Consonni; Glenn Magerman |
| Abstract: | We develop a Strategic Dependency Index (SDI) to quantify the welfare cost of product-levelimport price shocks. Unlike existing empirical indicators based on concentration metrics and ad hocthresholds, the SDI is derived from a structural cost-of-living framework, and allows for additivedecomposability across products, source countries and destination countries. We apply the SDIto the EU27, and estimate trade elasticities, love-for-variety parameters, and origin-destinationspecific taste shifters using highly disaggregated 8-digit product-level trade data over 2002–2021, instrumenting for prices and expenditure shares to address endogeneity. Three sets of findingsemerge. First, the products generating the largest welfare losses are petroleum oils, liquefied naturalgas, iron ores, and selected basic metals. Their strategic relevance stems from the interaction of bothlow substitutability across sources and large expenditure shares. Second, strategic dependencyvaries sharply across EU member states even for the same product, driven by fundamentallydifferent channels — high substitution elasticities in some countries versus large expenditure sharesin others — implying that uniform EU-wide policy responses may fail to address the heterogeneoussources of vulnerability. Third, the suppliers contributing most to aggregate welfare exposuredo not coincide with the geopolitical rivals dominating policy discourse: China, the USA, andRussia do not lead the SDI ranking. The SDI provides a tractable, theory-consistent framework forevaluating targeted policy interventions aimed at reducing strategic trade exposure. |
| Keywords: | strategic trade dependence; import vulnerability; welfare costs |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F14 D12 D60 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/404702 |
| By: | Ruthira Naraidoo |
| Abstract: | Commodity-exporting economies, such as South Africa, are susceptible to wide fluctuations in their business cycles, closely tied to commodity price fluctuations. In this research, we develop a prototype dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with specific features for emerging small open commodity-exporting economies, together with investigating the implications for monetary and fiscal policies following a commodity price shock. |
| Keywords: | Emerging markets, Commodity shocks, Monetary and fiscal policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-24 |
| By: | Patricia Agyapong |
| Abstract: | In 2007, Kosmos Energy and Tullow Oil found Ghana’s most significant column of high-grade offshore oil and gas. In this paper, I use geocoded household data to examine the socio-economic effects of this oil and gas discovery on the local communities. I conduct two quasi-experimental analysis and find that oil and gas discovery increased real income for households close to the fields, with the benefits being larger for households in districts with a high proportion of skilled workers and limited to non-poor districts. However, there is no apparent effect on employment, total consumption expenditure and poverty. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; oil and gas; local economic impacts; household welfare; spatial difference-in-differences; Ghana |
| JEL: | Q33 O13 R11 D31 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Antonio Fons Palomares; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This paper examines long-run linkages and possible instabilities in the gold–silver price relationship using daily futures prices over the period from 4 January 2010 to 28 November 2025. The empirical analysis includes unit-root and cointegration tests as well as endogenous structural break tests, namely the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm applied to the Engle–Granger residuals and the Bai–Perron endogenous break test, both detecting a break in late 2017. Standard cointegration tests fail to detect a stable long-run equilibrium over the full sample and the pre-break subsample, while one is found in the post-break subsample. Further, the Local Whittle fractional integration method provides evidence of a high degree of persistence consistent with long-memory dynamics. The estimation of a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR (FCVAR) model corroborates the previous findings: although full-sample evidence for cointegration is limited, a stable and economically meaningful long-run relationship between gold and silver emerges clearly in the post-break period. The results are shown to be robust across frequencies. |
| Keywords: | gold, silver, cointegration, fractional integration, structural breaks, PELT algorithm, Bai–Perron test, fractional cointegration, FCVAR |
| JEL: | C22 G15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12559 |
| By: | Patricia Agyapong |
| Abstract: | Do natural resources affect public trust in political leaders and institutions? In this study, I use a difference-in-differences approach to investigate this question, focusing on Ghana’s discovery of high-grade offshore oil in 2007. I find that individuals living close to the oil fields became less trusting of political leaders and institutions after the discovery. The findings suggest that the oil discovery’s impact on political trust varies depending on pre-existing social and economic condi¬tions such as educational status, employment status and the level of media exposure. Additionally, individuals located near the oil fields reported more negative views about Ghana’s democracy, corruption, government performance, and economic conditions. The results suggest a potential link between increased bribe payments in these locations and declining trust. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; political trust; governance; corruption; public attitudes; difference-in-differences; Ghana; Afrobarometer |
| JEL: | D72 H11 O17 Q33 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-03 |
| By: | Servaas Storm (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The AI industry is betting that 'scaling', i.e., adding more and more data, GPUs, compute infrastructure and dollars, will lead to machine superintelligence or Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - which in turn will lead to exponential growth of output, productivity and profits for the industry and the larger American economy. Focusing on AGI and generic LLMs, the point of this paper is plain: AI's 'scaling' strategy must fail and the AI data-center investment bubble will pop. The paper identifies four bottlenecks: (1) the planned $5 trillion investment in data center infrastructure (during 2026-2030) is not going to pay off; AI revenues will not increase enough and AI inference cost continue to rise faster than revenues; (2) AI firms will have to resort to hyper-scale borrowing from banks and investment-grade bond markets to fund their capex; this hyperscale borrowing will create a ticking time bomb on the balance sheets of AI firms, because the core capital expenditure on specialized GPUs and server risks becoming economically obsolete within two or three years; (3) it will be impossible to build the projected data center infrastructure fast enough, because upstream suppliers - producing everything from copper wire to turbines to transformers and switchgear - will run into labor shortages, long waiting times for power grid connections, material bottlenecks and regulatory blowback; and (4) the strategic bet of frontier AI firms that AGI can be achieved by building ever more data centers and using ever more chips is already going bad; AI products will continue to be untrustworthy for high-stake usage. As a result, the magical projections of exponential growth, which defy economic and financial logic and fatally ignore unforgiving real-world constraints will turn out to be wrong. The fact that the AI industry is the main source of growth in an otherwise sclerotic U.S. economy and is driven by a concentrated set of hyper-scalers engaging in 'circular' financial transactions based on aggressively optimistic long-term cash flow-generating potential should be a very serious cause for concern. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; AGI; AI bubble; LLMs; circular financing; revenues; price-earnings ratio; leverage; scaling; inference cost; hallucinations; Chinese competition; AI-generated work-slop; misinformation; FOMO; price war. |
| JEL: | E24 F52 G01 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp244 |