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on Mining |
| By: | Raschke, Jennifer; Schubart, Constantin |
| Abstract: | As the global energy transition accelerates, the renewable energy sector has emerged as a showplace for geopolitical competition. Amid intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, e.g. the trade frictions between the EU and China, European firms face the challenge of balancing cost efficiency with strategic sovereignty. This thesis therefore investigates how current trade tensions between the EU and China impact the supply chain strategies of German companies in the photovoltaics, wind, and battery sectors. Methodologically, the study combines a qualitative literature analysis with four semi-structured expert interviews with representatives from academia and policy think tanks. Based on a deductive-inductive coding approach, it identifies seven core risk categories and ten strategic response patterns. The findings reveal that the primary threat lies not in potential tariff or non-tariff trade barriers, but in a deep-seated, asymmetric dependence on China for critical raw materials and technological components. Consequently, while a full decoupling is deemed impractical, the research advocates for a robust de-risking framework centered on diversification of sourcing and production locations, nearshoring and friend-shoring, strategic partnerships with third countries, investments in technological innovation and circular economy approaches, complementary inventory strategies, and selective engagement with China. Ultimately, these strategies represent a shift toward more resilient governance structures, providing a roadmap for policymakers and executives to secure Europe's energy infrastructure within an era of systemic rivalry. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomics, Supply Chain Resilience, EU-China Trade Relations, Renewable Energy Industry, Derisking, Strategic Sovereignty |
| JEL: | F Q |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:339586 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world increasingly acquire, rescue, or inherit capital-intensive projects that private actors are unable or unwilling to complete, operate, or remediate. These interventions are often framed as exceptional policy failures or discretionary rescues. This paper argues instead that such outcomes reflect a structural feature of capital-intensive projects: long-lived obligations associated with environmental risk, site-specific assets, and public safety cannot be extinguished through market exit alone. Building on the concept of forward-looking project valuation, the paper develops a complementary institutional framework that focuses on the costs and constraints of state operation after private exit has occurred. The analysis shifts attention from project-level profitability to institutional capacity, emphasizing that state ownership entails the assumption of complex operational, regulatory, and governance responsibilities that generate real economic costs over time. These institutional costs are endogenous, state-contingent, and often amplified under conditions of deep uncertainty and project failure. Using stylized examples drawn from resource extraction, infrastructure, and environmental remediation, the paper shows how projects may transition from productive assets to pure liabilities, and why governments frequently become residual claimants by necessity rather than by choice. The framework highlights the intergenerational consequences of deferred remediation and underinvestment in institutional capacity, and reframes state intervention as a response to persistent project-level obligations rather than as an ideological departure from market governance. The contribution of the paper is conceptual rather than prescriptive. It does not propose optimal ownership structures or regulatory instruments. Instead, it provides a structured way to analyze the economic significance of institutional capacity when governments assume responsibility for capital-intensive projects whose liabilities outlive private profitability. |
| Keywords: | State intervention, Institutional capacity, Capital-intensive projects, Project failure, Environmental remediation, State-owned enterprises, Long-tail risk, Intergenerational equity, Infrastructure governance, Resource extraction |
| JEL: | D23 H11 H54 L32 Q38 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127844 |
| By: | Andreas Manhart (Oeko-Institut Consult GmbH); Fred Adjei (Oeko-Institut Consult GmbH) |
| Abstract: | Lead exposure presents a major public health challenge in many low- and middle-income countries, and unsafe recycling of used lead-acid batteries (ULABs) is increasingly recognized as an important driver. This paper synthesizes over a decade of applied research and cooperation projects on ULAB recycling, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa. The paper specifically draws from recent assessments in Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania and describes collection and recycling patterns, including interlinks between informal and formal operators, plant set-ups and operational practices. The researchers assert that collection is largely organized through informal networks that supply collected batteries to registered industrial recycling plants that commonly apply sub-standard processes. Key lead exposure pathways include manual or semi-automated battery breaking, uncontrolled electrolyte draining, insufficient capture of furnace and refining fumes, poor housekeeping and dust control, unsafe handling of filter dust, and inadequate management of lead-bearing slags. Regulatory frameworks exist and inspections occur, yet limited resources, gaps in technical specificity and capacity, and weak enforcement allow persistent non-compliance by formal plants. Economic analysis and recent experience indicate that relatively high standard plants face higher investment and operating costs and may lose access to ULABs because low-standard operators can offer higher purchase prices. The paper concludes with policy implications focused on effective and consistent sanctions, market consolidation through stricter licensing, polluter pays principles, regional exchange, supply chain due diligence, improved monitoring, and international support that strengthens local ownership and capacities. |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:387 |
| By: | Antoine Teixeira (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Énergie); Fanny Vicard (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Énergie) |
| Abstract: | European climate policies largely target territorial emissions, overlooking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and raw materials embodied in international trade. This study quantifies the potential and limitations of a sufficiency-oriented national strategy to reduce these impacts from a consumption-based perspective. Using the MatMat Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EEIO) model, we assess France's transition pathways toward Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 under two scenarios: an Efficiency-driven (Eff.) and a Sufficiency-oriented (Suff.) one. Results show that sufficiency systematically outperforms efficiency by reducing both GHG emissions (-44% vs. -31%) and raw material extraction (-24% vs -4%). Its outperformance stems from its stronger ability to reduce import dependency and to shift demand towards less material-intensive production. Housing, mobility, and food drive most reductions, while final services remain a persistent blind spot. In 2050, about twothirds of France's consumption-based impacts remain embodied in imports, 75% of which originate outside the EU, limiting the leverage of European decarbonization policies. These findings highlight the upstream mitigation potential of sufficiency and the need to extend NZE strategies beyond territorial scopes. Two key implications emerge. First, extending sufficiency to service provision is crucial to limit rebound effects and address the growing role of services in ageing societies. Second, integrating sufficiency into coordinated EU-level trade, industrial, and resource policies is essential to tackle imported pressures and strengthen the resilience of low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Sufficiency, Consumption-based GHG emissions and raw materials, Net-Zero emissions strategies, Scenarios analysis, Input-Output analysis, Industrial ecology |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05561584 |
| By: | Valentin Guye (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Patrick Meyfroidt (ELI - Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Erasmus Zu Ermgassen (ELI - Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain) |
| Abstract: | To address environmental and human rights issues in global commodity supply chains, governments increasingly require information from companies on their sourcing, as part of due-diligence regulations (DDRs). This shift towards accountability to the regulator rather than to the public calls into question the role left for public transparency. In this perspective piece, we argue that public transparency is actually complementary to DDRs-addressing their incomplete coverage of global supply chains and sustainability issues-and corrective to DDRs-mitigating their undesirable side effects. We illustrate these points with data on West African cocoa supply chains. Public transparency thus remains crucial for supply chain sustainability governance in a DDR era, and we encourage stakeholders to keep demanding its improvement. |
| Keywords: | supply chain, sustainability, smallholder, reporting, market exclusion, global value chain, foreign corporate governance, disclosure, deforestation, cocoa |
| Date: | 2026–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05562655 |
| By: | Hinz, Julian; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sogalla, Robin; Willmann, Gerald |
| Abstract: | • In March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The shutdown blocks roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and one-quarter of its liquefied natural gas, triggering severe welfare losses in energy-dependent developing countries worldwide. • Standard trade models underestimate the impact because they miss the bottleneck mechanism: energy disruptions cascade through chemicals and fertilizer production into food prices, amplifying losses for the world's poorest countries. • Developing countries that depend on imported energy and fertilizers-particularly in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East-face the steepest food price increases and welfare losses. The aggregate global costs are moderate, but the burden falls disproportionately on the world's poorest: the USA loses just -0.07%, while countries in South Asia and Africa face losses 10-20 times larger. • A prolonged closure allows some market adjustment, but structural damage persists-and the timing during peak Northern hemisphere planting season compounds the food security risk. |
| Abstract: | • Im März 2026 ist die Straße von Hormuz geschlossen. Die Sperrung blockiert rund ein Fünftel des weltweiten Öls und ein Viertel des Flüssiggases, mit schweren Wohlfahrtsverlusten für energieabhängige Entwicklungsländer weltweit. • Standardmodelle unterschätzen die Auswirkungen, weil sie den Engpassmechanismus übersehen: Energiestörungen pflanzen sich über die Chemie- und Düngemittelproduktion in die Lebensmittelpreise fort und verstärken die Verluste der ärmsten Länder. • Entwicklungsländer, die auf importierte Energie und Düngemittel angewiesen sind-insbesondere in Südasien, Subsahara-Afrika und dem Nahen Osten-sind am stärksten von Nahrungsmittelpreissteigerungen betroffen. Die globalen Kosten sind moderat, doch die Last trifft die ärmsten Länder überproportional: Die USA verlieren nur -0, 07%, während Länder in Südasien und Afrika 10- bis 20-mal höhere Verluste erleiden. • Eine längerfristige Sperrung ermöglicht gewisse Marktanpassungen, doch die strukturellen Schäden bleiben bestehen-und der Zeitpunkt während der Hauptaussaatzeit auf der Nordhalbkugel verschärft das Ernährungssicherheitsrisiko. |
| Keywords: | Strait of Hormuz, Energy Security, Food Prices, Critical Inputs, Bottleneck Effects, Trade Disruption, Straße von Hormus, Energiesicherheit, Lebensmittelpreise, kritische Vorleistungen Engpass-Effekte, Handelsstörungen |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:339604 |
| By: | Escaith, Hubert |
| Abstract: | This is the second volume of our data−driven analysis of the evolution of productive structure of economies between 1995 and 2019. It complements a first part delineating the main stylised facts characterising structural changes in the geographical distribution of World industrial production and the implications for employment. With a special emphasis on deindustrialisation, the present volume looks inside the production functions themselves. It investigates whether the decline of manufacturing shares in developed and some developing economies results from a statistical reclassification of activities due to domestic outsourcing, offshore relocation due to international outsourcing, or increasing demand constraints on the domestic and the export markets. Data on the use and origin of intermediate inputs provide information on the evolution of business models for each industry and their insertion in global value chains. It reveals the extent of domestic and international outsourcing and provides information on the evolution of business models across countries. While outsourcing motivated the investigation, the empirical analysis progressively relegates it to a secondary or ambiguous role. In its quest for deindustrialisation drivers, the study analyses the role of the demand constraints. The empirical results conclude by distinguishing normal and pathologic deindustrialisation in both developed and developing countries. Five broad lessons emerge from the analysis: (1) Heterogeneity of deindustrialisation, as the phenomenon is multidimensional; (2) Role of effective–demand constraints, as industrial expansion depends as much on absorption capacity as on supply potential, (3) Dual impact of outsourcing, when domestic or international outsourcing often signals functional specialisation and efficiency gains (a “Porterian” type of outsourcing), but may denote, at a contrary, a weakness (a “Post–Porterian” strategy); (4) Importance of global value chain (GVC) integration in developing successful business strategies; and (5) Importance of the domestic value chain, as successful GVC−based industrialisation requires also developing a strong domestic supply chain, particularly between high and medium technology industries. |
| Keywords: | industrialisation; global manufacturing; employment; input−output analysis; tertiarization and servicification; regional integration |
| JEL: | C67 F14 F16 J16 L60 O14 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128374 |
| By: | Araujo, Rafael; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Hector, Vinícius; Sant'Anna, Marcelo (Fundação Getulio Vargas) |
| Abstract: | The energy transition depends not only on building renewable capacity but also on protecting the natural resources on which renewables rely. This paper shows that conservation and renewable policies are complements. We quantify how Amazon deforestation affects Brazil's electricity market by reducing rainfall and hydropower generation. We model the transmission chain from deforestation to atmospheric moisture, to downwind rainfall, to river discharge and hydro output, and embed the resulting supply shift within a market-equilibrium framework. Counterfactual simulations indicate that reversing all deforestation since 1985 would increase annual hydroelectric output by 13 TWh, lower electricity prices, and generate welfare gains of USD 1.1 billion per year. These gains are unevenly distributed: consumers benefit from lower prices and Amazon-basin hydropower producers benefit from higher output, while thermal generators and hydropower producers elsewhere lose. Finally, we identify small, high-leverage regions that account for a disproportionate share of hydropower value, informing targeted conservation and restoration. |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5cukh_v1 |
| By: | Pablo Castro (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This article presents a long-run estimate of total factor productivity (TFP) in Uruguayan agriculture for the period 1870–2016. Drawing on a growth accounting framework and the construction of a new historical dataset, it provides homogeneous and consistent estimates of TFP for the agricultural sector as a whole and for its main subsectors: crops and livestock. The analysis situates productivity dynamics within the broader trajectory of national development, highlighting the interaction between technological change, institutional arrangements, and international integration. The findings identify three interrelated long-term patterns: cycles of modernization associated with waves of technological adoption and external integration; prolonged episodes of adaptive stagnation, during which growth relied primarily on the extensive use of natural resources; and alternating sectoral divergence between crops and livestock, linked to differentiated technological and institutional regimes. Overall, agricultural TFP grew at an average annual rate lower than 1% between 1870 and 2016, reflecting a discontinuous path of innovation rather than a linear process of progress. Efficiency gains materialized when institutions, policies, and markets were coherently aligned, and stalled when such conditions weakened. By combining long-run TFP measurement with historical interpretation, the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural determinants of agricultural productivity and of the role of the agricultural sector in Uruguay’s economic development. |
| Keywords: | TFP, agriculture, inputs, Uruguay |
| JEL: | N56 O13 O33 O47 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-04-26 |