|
on Mining |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Olof Löf; Federico Merchan; Frederick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of export restrictions on critical minerals on foreign investment in exploration, the upstream activity that determines the future resource base. Using a three-way panel of countries, minerals and years that combines the OECD inventory of export restrictions on critical raw materials with S&P Global exploration budgets over the period 2009 to 2024, and a local-projections difference-in-differences estimator that accommodates the staggered adoption of restrictions, we find that the introduction of an export restriction has a statistically and economically significant negative effect on foreign exploration investment: about US$11 million (constant dollars) per country-mineral pair per year, or roughly 9% of the cost of exploring and developing a typical gold project. The effect is asymmetric, as removing a restriction does not restore investment. Outright export bans drive the result, whereas export taxes and quotas have no discernible effect on foreign exploration. The key results are driven by countries with weaker control of corruption, suggesting that the signalling effect of trade restrictions is pervasive when there is poor policy credibility. Finally, we verify that restrictions bind in practice: export values fall by about 15% after a restriction is introduced, with the largest declines for bans and quotas. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, export restrictions, export bans, foreign exploration investment, endogenous resources, resource nationalism, corruption |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O13 Q31 Q32 Q38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13054 |
| By: | Binetti, Bruno |
| Abstract: | This brief develops some of the main themes that emerged from a roundtable co-organised by E3G and LSE IDEAS during London Climate Action Week in June 2026. The discussion brought together policymakers, industry representatives, financial institutions, academics and civil society experts to examine how critical-minerals partnerships can better reconcile the supply-security priorities of importing economies with the development and industrial ambitions of resource-rich countries. The views expressed in this brief are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of roundtable participants or their institutions. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141323 |
| By: | Ibrahim Alshehri; Ryan Banerjee; Michael Chui; Anna Maddux; Ko Munakata; Fabrizio Zampolli |
| Abstract: | Rising geopolitical tensions, including trade restrictions and conflicts, are increasingly disrupting global supply chains, posing significant risks at critical chokepoints. Strong substitution effects and the use of inventories have helped to mitigate adverse output effects of chokepoint disruptions, but they often come at the cost of higher input prices. An effective policy response to chokepoint disruptions requires a tailored approach that takes account of the cause, centrality and the private sector’s ability to substitute and draw on buffers. |
| Date: | 2026–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:138 |
| By: | Ziaba, Isaac |
| Abstract: | How do governing parties regulate informal miners and what explains regulatory response variations? Drawing on Ghana and leveraging original and secondary data, this paper shows that National Democratic Congress (NDC) incumbents tolerated most local miners even when President Mahama raided the informal mining sector. By contrast, while the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP’s) Kufour and Akufo-Addo attacked local miners, Akufo-Addo largely let off Chinese miners and their local collaborators. These dissimilar regulatory responses arise because most local miners appear electorally more salient to the NDC. By contrast, NPP political entrepreneurs cultivated economic ties with Chinese miners while this governing party got hugely indebted to China and was accordingly constrained from sanctioning Chinese miners and their local collaborators. Taken together, I argue that the differential electoral relevancies of local miners to Ghana’s dominant and rival parties, economic ties between domestic political entrepreneurs and Chinese miners, and indebtedness to Beijing can make mining groups more or less salient to parties, producing targeted responses of repression and forbearance.Such instrumental responses undermine ASM formalization, beckoning international financial institutions to tie credit and loan facilities to concrete formalization indicators, which could compel governing elites to adopt non-partisan, holistic, practical, and long-term formalization approaches. |
| Keywords: | political parties;Ghana;China;informal mining;galamsey |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141097 |
| By: | Amit Kumar; Anjali Singh |
| Abstract: | Technology is crucial for India to achieve its long-term development goals. With technological advancements, determining which technology is most effective for recycling electronic waste (e-waste) is crucial to minimising environmental impact in the recycling sector. Researchers employ multicriteria decision-making to assess the environmental implications of these continually evolving technologies (Zhou et al., 2006). Banta (2009), defines technology assessment as a policy study that examines the short- and long-term repercussions of technology adoption. The paper uses a Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) tool, the fuzzy-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), for assessing the recycling technologies for e-waste. Pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy and bio-metallurgy are the three major technologies being used for recycling critical, precious and strategic minerals from electronic waste (Alam et al., 2022). Potential technology which can be deployed in India are chosen based on technological, environmental, and economic (TEE) evaluation criteria which determine the technical efficiency, economic viability and environmental impact of considered technologies. The working paper presents a more precise, effective, and systematic decision-making matrix for decision makers (policy makers, start-ups and industry players) to conduct the assessment process and select environmentally sound and economically viable e-waste recycling technologies, considering the fact that the formal recycling sector is at nascent stage. |
| Keywords: | Circular Economy, e-waste recycling, Technology assessment framework, Multicriteria decision making, Fuzzy-TOPSIS, recycling technology, environmental impact, economic viability, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:438 |
| By: | Paha, Johannes; Wilches, Julian |
| Abstract: | Europe’s green hydrogen investments stall behind political ambitions. Informed by a coordination model featuring network effects, this article studies whether the gap between political ambitions and actual investments is a consequence of low payoffs or coordination failure. This distinction matters because coordination failure can be addressed by appropriate policies, whereas low payoffs would require a modification of overambitious targets. The article finds evidence of coordination problems that are reflected in a mismatch between project announcements and final investment decisions. Whether hydrogen targets are overambitious depends decisively on sectoral differences at the demand side. Hydrogen is most promising where it replaces existing fossil-based hydrogen or serves applications that direct electrification cannot easily address. But its prospects are more modest where electrification offers an efficient alternative. |
| Keywords: | Clean Hydrogen Adoption, Coordination Failure, Payoffs, Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | L52 Q42 Q48 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:atv:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Cueva Soto, Angel Eduardo; Poma Anccasi, Rossel; Vilca Achata, Susana Gladis |
| Abstract: | La visión alternativa de la competitividad minera considera al clima de inversión y al potencial geológico como variables determinantes más importantes de la inversión en exploraciones; existen estudios que proporcionan evidencia empírica sustentando esta hipótesis. El presente estudio hace un análisis econométrico de dicha visión alternativa haciendo uso de panel de datos. En la base de datos utilizada en el estudio se incluye a cuatro de los más importantes países productores en la industria minera mundial: Australia, Canadá, Chile y Perú (serie transversal); la serie temporal cubre el período 1997 a 2019. Para la variable dependiente inversión en exploraciones se considera a los presupuestos mundiales en exploraciones. Las variables explicativas incluyen el potencial geológico y el clima de inversión. El potencial geológico de los países se “mide” empleando el valor monetario de la producción minera de los metales bases (Cobre, Plomo, Zinc) y metales preciosos (Plata y Oro) información que fue recopilada de la British Geological Survey (BSG) |
| Keywords: | Mining, Extraction, and Refining; Other Nonrenewable Resources; Business Administration |
| JEL: | L72 M1 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:tesmgm:0019 |
| By: | Huaman Abalos, Jerry; Leon Chicmana, Walter; Rojas Gutierrez, Alex Santiago |
| Abstract: | El presente estudio analiza la gestión de la incertidumbre geológica como herramienta estratégica para optimizar la planificación geológica en la mina Cerro Lindo. Mediante el análisis de información histórica y la aplicación de modelos matemáticos y probabilísticos, se busca mejorar la eficiencia en la asignación de recursos financieros destinados a exploración, fortalecer la toma de decisiones y optimizar la ejecución de sondajes diamantinos. Este enfoque permite una mejor comprensión del comportamiento espacial de la mineralización y una reducción significativa del riesgo exploratorio. La planificación geológica presenta actualmente una eficacia de 245 t de mineral económico por metro perforado (t/m). Con la implementación de modelos probabilísticos, esta eficacia podría incrementarse a 437 t/m, representando una mejora sustancial en el rendimiento exploratorio. Los resultados indican que en zonas clasificadas con probabilidad alta y muy alta existen aproximadamente 18.3 Mt de recursos. Bajo un enfoque convencional, su delimitación requeriría 74 km de perforación con un presupuesto estimado de US$ 13.0 millones. En contraste, la priorización basada en modelos probabilísticos reduciría la necesidad a 42 km de perforación, con un presupuesto de US$ 7.3 millones, generando un ahorro aproximado de US$ 5.7 millones (44 %). Asimismo, al aplicar criterios de conversión a reservas sobre las 18.3 Mt identificadas, se obtienen 13.5 Mt con leyes promedio de 1.57 % Zn, 0.55 % Pb, 0.51 % Cu y 28.12 ppm Ag, con un NSR de US$ 86.76/t y un beneficio de US$ 41.82/t, lo que representa un beneficio económico estimado de aproximadamente US$ 562.5 millones. Estos resultados evidencian el impacto técnico y económico de incorporar modelos probabilísticos en la planificación geológica, contribuyendo a la sostenibilidad y extensión de la vida útil de la operación. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Extraction, and Refining; Other Nonrenewable Resources; Business Administration |
| JEL: | L72 M1 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:tesmgm:0025 |
| By: | Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | What explains China's global dominance of green industries? Here, I show that China's politics determine its growth model, and the growth model fosters clean tech development. First, China's authoritarian politics entail a growth-security trade-off, a preference for investment and exports, the elimination of powerful industrial coalitions, and a high degree of state capacity. Second, clean industries fit all of these four dimensions: 1) They reduce reliance on energy imports and allow China to keep green supply chains within its control. 2) They provide new drivers of investment and exports as real estate and low-skilled manufacturing lose their ability to drive growth. 3) No incumbent industrial coalition can resist their expansion, as the same stateowned companies often own both clean and dirty assets. 4) Finally, without electoral or legal constraints, the party-state supports them through supply-side, demand-side, and macro-structural policies. Consequently, China has achieved green growth by decoupling emissions from growth. However, emission-intensive industries also fit the growth model, meaning the shift to clean technologies is, so far, proportional rather than nominal. Further progress requires either political and economic reform, which is unlikely, or technological progress that lets clean technologies outcompete fossil alternatives. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141319 |
| By: | Garrett Golding; Jesse Thompson |
| Abstract: | Even after the Iran conflict ends and the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, U.S. fuel prices will likely remain unusually elevated relative to crude prices, owing to diminished refining operations. As a result, headline inflation measures could remain above where oil price trends would normally indicate for as long as a significant portion of global refining capacity stays offline. |
| Date: | 2026–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:103912 |
| By: | Hilda SALEH (Department of Mathematics, CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran); Morteza SHAFIEE (School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia); Kristiaan KERSTENS (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Économie Management, F-59000 Lille, France. Corresponding author.) |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a nonconvex network data envelopment analysis model for evaluating efficiency in multi-stage supply chains under centralized and decentralized decision structures. Existing network DEA models typically rely on convexity assumptions, which limit their ability to capture indivisibilities and scale discontinuities inherent in real world supply chains. To address this gap, we develop a unified framework that accommodates nonconvex production technologies while enabling efficiency assessment at both the stage and the system levels. The model allows identification of coordination inefficiencies and structural performance differences across decision regimes. An empirical application to national wheat supply chains demonstrates significant efficiency variation across stages and decision units. It reveals that high efficiency at individual stages does not guarantee overall system efficiency. The results highlight the critical role of coordination in improving supply chain performance. The proposed framework provides a more realistic efficiency assessment tool and offers practical insights for improving resource allocation and operational coordination in complex supply chains. |
| Keywords: | Data Envelopment Analysis, Network, Nonconvex Technology, Centralized and Decentralized Systems, Wheat Supply Chain. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e20260430 |
| By: | Viera Mendoza Miguel Antonio; Coloma Bardales, Carlos Eduardo; Fonttis Velez, Paolo Guillermo |
| Abstract: | La investigación analiza el proceso de formalización del Registro Integral de Formalización Minera (REINFO) en Lima Metropolitana desde julio de 2017 hasta mayo de 2024. Se identifican las dificultades que afectan la eficiencia del proceso. Con un enfoque cuantitativo, se examinaron 713 registros, revelando que solo el 0.1% de los solicitantes avanzó a la presentación del expediente técnico, sin formalizaciones completadas. La acreditación de terrenos superficiales es la barrera más crítica. Se concluye que el fracaso del REINFO requiere una reforma integral del marco normativo y operativo de la formalización minera en Perú. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Extraction, and Refining; Other Nonrenewable Resources; Business Administration |
| JEL: | L72 M1 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:tesmgm:0023 |
| By: | Vizcarra Arias, Derly Sandy; Mamani Mandamientos, David; Garcia Otazu, Hector Moises |
| Abstract: | La investigación examina cómo las condiciones de las vías mineras y las prácticas operativas afectan la vida útil de los neumáticos de camiones mineros de gran tonelaje, utilizando dos configuraciones de flota: 53/80 R63 y 59/80 R63. Se basa en datos reales de la operación minera a tajo abierto de Minera Las Bambas, buscando fortalecer la gestión estratégica del sistema de acarreo. Se realizó un análisis estadístico que incluye estadística descriptiva y modelos de regresión para captar relaciones contemporáneas y efectos a largo plazo. Se ajustaron series temporales para eliminar estacionalidad y asegurar resultados válidos. Los hallazgos ayudan a optimizar el diseño y mantenimiento de vías, mejorar prácticas operativas y reducir costos en la gestión de flota. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Extraction, and Refining; Other Nonrenewable Resources; Business Administration |
| JEL: | L72 M1 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:tesmgm:0021 |
| By: | Erfan Danesh; Erik Heitfield; Yang-Ho Park |
| Abstract: | Earlier this year the Middle East conflict led to one of the largest global oil supply shocks in history (Bordoff and O'Sullivan, 2026). Past empirical research has found that commodity futures prices provide accurate predictions of future spot prices under normal market conditions (Reeve and Vigfusson, 2011; Chernenko et al., 2004). |
| Date: | 2026–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103904 |
| By: | Ali Salmande |
| Abstract: | ASEAN has become a major hub in global supply chains (GSCs). In recent years, however, GSCs have been reshaped by pandemic-related disruptions, rising US–China geopolitical tensions, growing protectionism, stricter sustainability requirements, and rapid digitalisation. Drawing on firm-level interviews and surveys, this paper examines the combined effects of these developments, with particular attention to how firms are responding and the common challenges they face. The findings show that manufacturing firms are diversifying their procurement, production, and export markets to strengthen supply chain resilience. However, diversifying supply sources and production locations alone is insufficient. Building resilience also requires an integrated value chain approach that strengthens the performance of the entire system. In the short term, policy priorities include stricter enforcement of rules of origin and stronger monitoring of transshipment. Over the medium term, priorities include deeper regional integration through lower non-tariff barriers, harmonised standards, and improved connectivity under existing trade frameworks. In the long term, competitiveness will depend on industrial upgrading, supplier development, decarbonisation, and digital transformation. |
| Keywords: | - |
| Date: | 2026–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2026-02 |
| By: | Cano Esquieros, Fernando Alberto; Garcia Neciosup, Jhoana Elena; Leon Aroni, Eugenio; Lipa Lipa, Julio Renzo; Pacho Mamani, Moises Niles |
| Abstract: | La presente investigación analiza la implementación de perforadoras autónomas Pit Viper en la mina Quellaveco y su impacto en la productividad (metros perforados) en el proceso de Perforación. La automatización, transformación digital y la aplicación de equipos autónomos en minería ha sido una tendencia creciente como adopción de la Minería 4.0 en Sudamérica, esto debido a su potencial para mejorar la eficiencia operativa, sostenibilidad y reducir riesgos en entornos de trabajo exigentes. El estudio se basa en un análisis econométrico comparativo aplicando el modelo de regresión MCO entre las perforadoras autónomas y las convencionales tripuladas. Se utilizaron datos operativos de la mina Quellaveco para un período de dos años (2023- 2024), considerando variables clave como uso de autonomía, precisión de perforación, dureza del material y centilencia. Los resultados muestran que la autonomía tiene una relación positiva significativa (54.10) con la productividad y relación inversa significativa (– 211.79) con la dureza. Es decir, a mayor autonomía mayor productividad y a mayor dureza menor productividad. La precisión guarda relación directa con la productividad en rangos de fragmentación óptima. Así mismo, se identificó una reducción en costos operativos (-19%) a largo plazo debido a la eliminación de cambios de turno y una mejor utilización de los equipos. La seguridad de los trabajadores también mejoró al minimizar su exposición a zonas de alto riesgo. Se detectaron desafíos como la curva de aprendizaje y capacitaciones del personal. En conclusión, la implementación de perforadoras Pit Viper autónomas representa un avance hacia una minería más eficiente y segura, con implicaciones positivas en la reducción de costos y el aumento de la productividad. Se recomienda continuar con el desarrollo de competencias y capacitación del personal para maximizar los beneficios de la automatización. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Extraction, and Refining; Other Nonrenewable Resources; Business Administration |
| JEL: | L72 M1 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:tesmgm:0024 |
| By: | Christophe C. Gouel (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Brian D Wright (ARE - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics [Berkeley] - UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California) |
| Abstract: | This review reassesses the economics of commodity price stabilization policies through the lens of the rational expectations storage model. In frictionless markets, private speculative storage efficiently smooths commodity prices; thus, welfare gains from public intervention require the presence of market or endowment failures, which are prevalent in agricultural markets in low-income settings. Optimal state-contingent stabilization policies raise welfare but are complex, crowd out private storage, and are difficult to design and implement. Simple rules-notably narrow price bands or storage-cost subsidies-offer more feasible approximations, with subsidies being more efficient. In open economies with high trade costs, storage can mitigate price troughs. Conversely, export controls can mitigate domestic transmission of global price spikes but are non-cooperative. Although storage policies stabilize prices, their welfare effects are nuanced. They entail large redistributive transfers that far exceed efficiency gains; accordingly, they should be viewed as second-best instruments, valuable when better-targeted alternatives are unavailable. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude réévalue les aspects économiques des politiques de stabilisation des prix des matières premières à travers le prisme du modèle de stockage fondé sur les anticipations rationnelles. Sur des marchés sans frictions, le stockage spéculatif privé permet de lisser efficacement les prix des matières premières ; par conséquent, pour que l'intervention publique génère des gains de bien-être, il faut qu'il existe des défaillances du marché ou des défaillances de dotation, qui sont courantes sur les marchés agricoles des pays à faibles revenus. Les politiques de stabilisation optimales, conditionnées à l'état du marché, améliorent le bien-être mais sont complexes, évincent le stockage privé et sont difficiles à concevoir et à mettre en œuvre. Des règles simples – notamment des fourchettes de prix étroites ou des subventions aux coûts de stockage – offrent des approximations plus réalisables, les subventions s'avérant plus efficaces. Dans les économies ouvertes où les coûts de transaction sont élevés, le stockage peut atténuer les creux de prix. À l'inverse, les contrôles à l'exportation peuvent atténuer la répercussion sur le marché intérieur des flambées de prix mondiales, mais ils ne favorisent pas la coopération. Bien que les politiques de stockage stabilisent les prix, leurs effets sur le bien-être sont nuancés. Elles impliquent d'importants transferts redistributifs qui dépassent de loin les gains d'efficacité ; par conséquent, elles doivent être considérées comme des instruments de second choix, utiles lorsque des alternatives mieux ciblées ne sont pas disponibles. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Rational expectations, Buffer stock policies, Market stabilization, Commodity storage, Anticipation rationnelle |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05795734 |
| By: | Marco Becht; Juan Mejino-Lopez; Guntram Wolff |
| Abstract: | Defence markets exhibit extreme asset specificity and bilateral monopoly. Transaction-cost economicspredicts state ownership or control in such circumstances. This paper examines what governments actuallydo. Ownership alone does not determine control. A state with zero equity can still have influencethrough governance provisions and legal tools. Using large language model extraction from annual reports, supplemented by hand-coding, we compile a leximetric dataset on corporate governance and state control for107 of the world’s largest defence companies, drawn from the SIPRI Top 100 for 2022–2024, in 24 countries.We construct a novel State Influence Index (SII) aggregating voting power, voting enhancements, boardappointment and veto rights. State ownership is bimodal: full state ownership at one end, no state ownershipat the other. Formal control varies independently. China and Russia combine full ownership with full control.TheUnited States has no ownership and little formal control, relying instead on security agreements, revenuedependence and personnel interchange. The rest of the distribution is dispersed. Some countries combineminority equity with legal devices that amplify formal control well beyond ownership stakes. Others rely onregulatory mechanisms with little or no formal governance authority. In several cases, states have delegatedcontrol to domestic families operating under implicit state leverage. A complementary State Restraint Indexshows that European companies with high state influence tend also to score higher on voluntary self-limitation, consistent with credible commitment to attract private capital. Cross-border cooperation is producing newgovernance architectures that partition operations across national subsidiaries to reconcile economies of scalewith sovereign control. Corporate governance mechanisms matter most when defence entities operate beyondthe home state’s jurisdiction, where regulatory authority alone does not reach. The patterns are consistent withtransaction-cost and property-rights reasoning about asset specificity and bilateral dependence, although theinstitutional form of state control varies with legal tradition and political economy |
| Keywords: | defence industry; ownership and control; corporate governance; state-owned enterprises; national security; transaction costs; golden shares; State Influence Index; leximetrics; large language models |
| JEL: | D23 G32 G34 G38 H56 K22 L33 L64 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/414991 |
| By: | Valdes, Constanza; Gillespie, Jeffrey; Bonin, Daniel; Scott, Sara |
| Abstract: | This study compares corn and soybean production costs and returns between Brazil and the United States. It centers on farm-level production costs for the 2023–25 period, comparing input usage and farm practices. Prices received by farmers and average yields for each crop in each country are analyzed to calculate producer returns. The comparison is situated within the broader context of the two countries’ importance in global markets for these crops. Brazil and the United States collectively accounted for 58 and 83 percent of global trade in corn and soybeans in marketing year 2025/26, respectively. Brazil has emerged as a major competitor to the United States, driven by expansion of soybean production and double cropping systems—particularly second-crop corn following soybeans—which has reshaped global export patterns. This study’s findings highlight a range of factors that influence production costs and returns of these countries for corn and soybeans, such as production practices and technological advancements, and examines the differences. The roles of Government policies, infrastructure developments, and access to global markets are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:413178 |
| By: | Christopher Clayton; Antonio Coppola; Vanessa Hu; Matteo Maggiori; Jesse Schreger; Serdil Tinda |
| Abstract: | The increasing use of geoeconomic pressure is reshaping the global economy. We introduce a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically measure the application of and response to geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora, classifying which governments apply pressure to which foreign targets, using which in struments, firms, and products. Most importantly, we use LLMs to analyze how and why firms respond to the pressure. We focus on export controls, sanctions, and tariffs as the main instruments of pressure on firms. We find that export controls induce the targeted firms to undertake domestic R&D to build a domestic alternative technology. Western sanctions on Russia cause supply chain re-arrangements, the major beneficiary of which are firms in third-party countries, like China and India, which step into the market vacuum created by the broken business relationships. The threat and impositions of U.S. tariffs cause losses for the majority of U.S. firms, which report absorbing the cost shock on their inputs via their profit margin. Foreign firms are also negatively affected, mostly via the related macroeconomic uncertainty and the cost of relocating production. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, LLMs, economic coercion, economic security, economic statecraft, economic dependency, chokepoints, sanctions, export controls, tariffs |
| JEL: | C4 F3 F4 F5 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1386 |
| By: | Onur Polat (Institute of Informatics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe Campus, 06800 Cankaya, Ankara, Turkiye); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether and how structural oil market shocks affect expressed public mood. To this end, we combine the daily forward-looking demand, current demand, and supply shocks of Gazzani, Venditti, and Veronese (2024) with the Twitter Sentiment Geographical Index, a daily measure of expressed sentiment built from geotagged tweets, from January 2012 to June 2023. We estimate lag- augmented local projections for a world index, a panel of 126 countries, and, to assess the role of disaggregation, the United States at the country, state, and county levels. Sentiment does not react to any of the shocks on impact. The cumulative responses, however, reveal a gradual adjustment. Forward-looking demand shocks, which capture news about global growth prospects and risk appetite, raise sentiment persistently, with the response building up over about six months, and persisting for up to a year; the sign of this response, in turn, is stable across aggregation levels, samples, and inference methods. Oil supply shocks raise sentiment briefly in the world and U.S. series, after which their point estimates turn negative at horizons of seven to twelve months. |
| Keywords: | Oil market shocks, Expressed sentiment, Subjective well-being, Twitter, Local projections, Disaggregation |
| JEL: | C23 D91 E71 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202631 |
| By: | Goodrich, Jimmy; Martin, Jackson |
| Abstract: | Advanced scientific light sources are foundational research infrastructure for semiconductor manufacturing, biomedicine, energy storage, and nuclear weapons stewardship. This report examines China’s pursuit of “photon sovereignty” through the rapid expansion of a domestically controlled network of synchrotrons and X-ray free-electron lasers. Drawing on open sources, it identifies approximately sixteen operational light sources and at least twenty-one additional facilities under construction or active planning, with known investment in ongoing projects approaching $13 billion. This expansion is broadening China’s scientific capabilities, reducing dependence on foreign infrastructure, and increasing access to advanced facilities across universities, research institutes, and industry. The strategic effects will be cumulative: more beamtime, broader spectral coverage, faster experimentation, and a larger trained user community could accelerate advances in foundational science, technology, and military capabilities. For the United States, China’s expansion presents a dual challenge: protecting sensitive research while sustaining the infrastructure and scientific workforce needed to maintain U.S. leadership in photon science. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Photon sovereignty, China science and technology policy, Semiconductor manufacturing, X-ray free-electron lasers |
| Date: | 2026–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt7tj61937 |
| By: | Laurence Coursieras; Alexandre Menard; Camille Thubin |
| Abstract: | Fuel prices do not depend solely on the global prices of crude oil. They also reflect the cost of its refinement into petrol, diesel or kerosene, as well as the specific supply and demand conditions for each refined product. When the supply of refined products is constrained by external factors, fuel prices may therefore remain high, or even rise, without a corresponding change in the price of crude oil. The spring and summer 2026 episode illustrates this mechanism: between February and August, pressure on refining capacity is estimated to account for around 60% of the cumulative rise in the prices of petroleum products in France. <p> Le prix des carburants ne dépend pas uniquement des cours mondiaux du pétrole brut. Il reflète également le coût de sa transformation en essence, gazole ou kérosène, ainsi que les conditions d’offre et de demande propres à chaque produit raffiné. Lorsque l’offre de produits raffinés est contrainte par des facteurs exogènes, les prix des carburants peuvent ainsi rester élevés, voire augmenter, sans évolution équivalente du cours du pétrole brut. L’épisode du printemps et de l’été 2026 illustre ce mécanisme : entre février et août, les tensions sur les capacités de raffinage expliqueraient environ 60 % de la hausse cumulée des prix des produits pétroliers en France. |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:464 |
| By: | Álvaro S. González (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The World Bank has yet to pin down a working definition for what it labels private sector development (PSD). This lack of clarity has permitted the World Bank to change what it treats as PSD and what PSD operations are expected to achieve. This paper defines a private sector development operation as one where public capital enters a market served by private suppliers to correct a market failure. For operations that fit that definition, it asks whether World Bank involvement is justified and whether it is additional to what would otherwise occur in the market. Applying this test, the paper identifies five approaches to private sector work between FY1975 and FY2025 and finds little evidence that changes in focus and strategy responded to worsening performance. It also finds that of the 156 operations classified by World Bank staff as PSD in FY24–25, only 29 meet the paper’s definition, and 21 fail the additionality test, accounting for US$3.20 billion in total commitments. The paper recommends making the case for intervention an approval requirement under a World Bank Operational Policy, thereby establishing a common test that does not depend on which flavor of PSD is in fashion at the time. |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:403 |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Karakaş, Oğuzhan; Limbach, Peter; Ren, Honglin |
| Abstract: | We document high persistence in shareholder turnout, creating predictable differences in effective voting power across firms. Accordingly, firms with lower turnout exhibit higher voting premia. For identification, we exploit the 2010 NYSE Rule 452 amendment eliminating broker authority over uninstructed shares as a shock to turnout in director elections. Further, we show that low turnout predicts contentious governance events where shareholder influence is more valuable, and that the negative voting premium-turnout relation is stronger when such events are more likely. Results indicate that investors price de facto voting power and that persistent shareholder participation shape the value of corporate control. |
| Keywords: | Shareholder voting participation, Value of voting rights, Broker non-vote rule, Contentious governance events, Voting power |
| JEL: | G11 G23 G41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:344100 |
| By: | Giannakas, Konstantinos |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-market framework of analysis of vertical relationships in pork production and game theoretic models of heterogeneous firms to examine the economic, market and welfare impacts of abolishing vertical integration in the US pork sector. Different scenarios on the causes of vertical integration and the potential states of nature that can emerge after the removal of this vertical market arrangement are considered within this framework. Analytical results are consistent across the different scenarios and forms of strategic interactions between pork producers and indicate that the abolishment of vertical integration in the US pork sector will hurt pork consumers, integrated pork producers and the hog producers involved. The only beneficiaries of this policy/change will be the non-integrated pork producers. However, the gains of these non-integrated pork producers are less than the consumer, hog producer and integrated pork producer losses, resulting in net social welfare losses from this policy. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaesp:413438 |
| By: | Diaz Panuera, Jorge Luis; Telada Huaman, Edilberto; Lopez Espinoza, Pablo Miguel; Valladares Tapia, Richard Maik |
| Abstract: | En esta investigación se analizó el mercado del estaño, incluyendo su oferta, demanda, precios, producción secundaria y reciclaje. Se estudiaron las diez empresas más importantes del mundo que producen entre el 50% y 67% del estaño en concentrados. Además, se revisaron proyectos en etapas avanzadas de desarrollo. El estudio tiene como objetivo investigar la industria del estaño a nivel global y construir escenarios de producción en América Latina para 2021-2030, considerando la demanda actual y futura, así como la conflictividad social. Se utilizó la planificación por escenarios y datos de fuentes secundarias, como la International Tin Association y el United States Geological Survey. Se combinaron análisis cuantitativos y cualitativos para identificar variables clave. El Modelo de las Cinco Fuerzas de Porter fue empleado para entender la competencia en la industria. Este estudio se centra en los años 2021 a 2030, revisando la situación actual y proyectando futuros escenarios del mercado del estaño. |
| Keywords: | Minería; Estaño |
| JEL: | M1 L72 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:tesmgm:0022 |