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on Mining |
| By: | Craig-Scheckman, Madeline; Keen, Trissanne; Zhang, Terry; Alavi, Sarasadat; Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Lithium iron phosphate batteries are important for storing intermittent renewable electricity and powering electric vehicles. This report assesses the extent to which the battery supply chain can be “friendshored, ” now that clean energy tax credits are subject to stringent limits on involvement of “prohibited foreign entities.” This is not simply a matter of where materials are sourced: the regulated battery inputs also include manufacturing equipment, intellectual property, and technology licensing. The requirements are most problematic for the “midstream” segment of the supply chain—the processing of extracted critical minerals. “Upstream” (mineral extraction) and “downstream” (manufacture of battery components) inputs are less likely to be constrained. To be compliant, manufacturers must find new sources, scale up investment, and reduce dependence on technologies developed by prohibited foreign entities. Scenario analysis indicates that the supply chain is unlikely to be sufficiently friendshored before costly restrictions are triggered. Compliance timelines should reflect industrial realities in the sector. |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-12 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This working paper explores the underlying reasons for shifts in the gold landscape and the possibility that these developments could signal deeper ongoing transformations in the global economy, with broader implications across economic sectors and financial markets. This paper provides an overview of these signals and emerging trends and identifies four futures of gold scenarios for global markets and payment systems, illicit financial flows, geofinance, economic and sustainable development, critical mineral supply chains and responsible business conduct. |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaad:51-en |
| By: | Eun-myeong Tak (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers for submarine cables is expanding, and optical fiber is emerging as a core material of digital infrastructure; cable demand for AI applications rose 77 percent in 2025 over the previous year (CRU).<p> South Korea leads the OECD in the share of fixed lines carried on optical cable, at 90.5 percent, yet its materials base is thin: only one domestic company produces preform, the stage at which value is concentrated. China, the United States, Japan, and India have each cultivated a domestic optical fiber industry, through subsidies and procurement preferences, domestic content requirements, state-funded research and development, and production linked incentives respectively, whereas Korea has no policy tailored to optical fiber materials.<p> This study compares demand and price trends in the global optical fiber market, the competitiveness of the major producers, and policy at home and abroad, and on that basis sets out directions for developing Korea’s optical fiber materials industry: securing high-value preform manufacturing capability, developing next-generation fiber technologies such as multi-core fiber (MCF) and hollow-core fiber (HCF), and broadening the demand base through national infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | AI data centers; AIDC; preform; optical fiber; supply chain security; submarine cables |
| JEL: | L63 L96 O25 O33 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023665 |
| By: | Tomaz Cajner; Leland D. Crane; Christopher J. Kurz; Paul E. Soto; Betsy Vrankovich |
| Abstract: | Recent history has shown that input cost shocks can propagate quickly and broadly across sectors. When supply chain disruptions, commodity price swings, and demand shocks raise the prices firms pay for materials and services, those pressures can pass through to downstream consumers. |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103876 |
| By: | Friedrich, Jonathan (CIRCLE, Lund University); Stihl, Linda (CIRCLE, Lund University); Miörner, Johan (CIRCLE, Lund University); Souza, Vitor (CIRCLE, Lund University); Nilsson, Fredrik (CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Geographical research on the global economy has largely failed to conceptualize processes of circular change, while geographical issues are rarely considered in scholarship on the circular economy. Therefore, in this paper, we conceptualize a globally integrated circular economy and identify the key mechanisms of circular (de-)couplings. We provide a novel framework for understanding these changes by combining four essential dimensions - actors, resources, functions and geography - which we illustrate with empirical examples. This can inform human geographic research approaches to the topic and policy making at different levels on how to rethink global entanglements and drive circularity-oriented changes. |
| Keywords: | circular economy; global economy; global production network; global value chains; transitions |
| JEL: | F63 O19 Q01 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_001 |
| By: | Giulia Brancaccio; Myrto Kalouptsidi; Theodore Papageorgiou; Yixin Zhou |
| Abstract: | Do transportation disruptions affect aggregate outcomes? We develop a tractable model of the transportation sector to study its impact on prices and international trade. By casting maritime transportation as a queueing network, the model identifies where the transportation bottlenecks lie and delivers a simple and easy-to compute measure of transportation capacity over time. We calibrate the model using shipping and trade data and use it to evaluate the resilience of the shipping sector during the last 20 years. During the Great Supply Chain Disruption, port bottlenecks raised commodity prices and caused shortages, but a contemporaneous contraction in commodity supply reduced shipping demand and thereby dampened these effects. By contrast, insufficient shipping capacity was a key driver of price increases during the 2000s Commodity Supercycle. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35812 |
| By: | Coordinators:; Oswalt, Sonja N.; Bush, Renate; Murray, Lara T.; Walker, David |
| Abstract: | This publication provides authoritative updates to the Nation’s forest resource statistics reported in “Forest Resources of the United States, 2017” and the 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment using adapted Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Resource data tables present estimates of forest area, volume, mortality, growth, removals, timber products output, and more in various ways within the context of changes since 1953. Downloadable tables are available via the Research Data Archive at: https://doi. org/10.2737/WO-GTR-107-s1 |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:413140 |
| By: | Michal Vyletelka |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the reaction of the stock market to corporate carbon neutrality (CN) announcements using a global dataset of 887 earnings call disclosures between 2019 and 2024. Employing event-study style comparisons, industryadjusted returns, and Fama-French factor models, the analysis reveals that CN commitments have limited short-term effects, but are associated with statistically significant negative abnormal returns over a 12-month horizon. The results suggest that investors perceive carbon neutrality pledges as credible signals of future cost burdens rather than value-enhancing strategies. The findings also highlight sectoral and temporal heterogeneity: technology, energy and materials firms exhibit positive return premia, while utilities and real estate underperform; longer-dated CN commitments (post-2040) are priced more favorably than near-term commitments. Regional effects largely disappear once the sector composition is controlled, underscoring the primacy of industry dynamics in shaping market responses. |
| Keywords: | Carbon neutrality, ESG disclosure, stock returns, event study |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:6:y:2026:id:6.005 |
| By: | Christian Bustamante; Xing Guo; Lu Han; Soyoung Lee; Gaelan MacKenzie; Mariel Yacolca Maguiña; Jacob Short |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework to quantify how tariff changes on imported goods affect sectoral and aggregate consumption prices through direct and production-network channels. Using Canada's input-output matrix and administrative firm-good import data for the universe of Canadian firms, we estimate price elasticities for tariffs on U.S.-imported goods. Tariffs on machinery and equipment and transport equipment generate the largest effects on final prices, reflecting their widespread use as intermediate inputs. On average, two-thirds of the total price response stems from higher intermediate input costs passing through domestic supply chains. Applying the framework to Canada's 2025 counter-tariffs, we estimate consumption price increases of 1.56 and 0.72 percentage points for the pre- and post-September 2025 phases, respectively; alternative packages of equal import value could reduce aggregate price effects by three to seven times. A hypothetical CUSMA breakdown reverting to MFN tariffs would raise final-good prices by 0.64 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Inflation dynamics and pressures; Structural challenges; International trade, finance and competitiveness |
| JEL: | D D5 D57 E E3 E31 F F1 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:26-35 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of persistent and recently widening global imbalances, the paper presents a structured framework for understanding how domestic policies can influence current account positions by altering domestic saving and investment decisions. Staff analysis finds that traditional macroeconomic policies remain the dominant drivers of imbalances, but certain types of industrial policies could also play a role. Micro industrial policies—those targeting specific sectors or firms—generally have ambiguous and limited effects on the current account depending on their impact on aggregate productivity. Macro industrial policies—those deployed economy-wide and often paired with restrictions such as capital flow management measures—can materially affect the current account but come at a cost to consumption. Trade restrictions, often deployed to counter imbalances, would only meaningfully alter current account balances when used temporarily or to support higher public savings. Using scenario analysis, the paper shows how domestic rebalancing, undertaken simultaneously, across deficit and surplus economies yields both a reduction in global imbalances and higher global output. The report concludes that the future path of global imbalances will be largely shaped by domestic macroeconomic trajectories. Durable rebalancing is a collective endeavor: it requires sound domestic policy action across major economies and works best when countries move together. To help design such policies, the Fund is pursuing a multipronged approach by strengthening data, analysis, surveillance and dialogue across the member countries. |
| Keywords: | current account; global imbalances; saving and investment; macroeconomic policies; tariffs; industrial policy; rebalancing; IMF surveillance; current account surplus; current account position; saving-investment dynamics; Imf executive board; Imf staff; transparency Policy; fund surveillance; Current account balance; Capital flows; Exchange rates; Trade policy; Global |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfpps:2026/006 |
| By: | Pinelopi Goldberg; Reka Juhasz; Giulia Lo Forte; Jeff Thurk |
| Abstract: | We show that cross-border learning is an important feature of modern semiconductor manufacturing and that several important channels – such as knowledge sharing along global supply chains, the movement of engineers within multinational firms, and foreign direct investment – operate through market mechanisms rather than anonymous technological spillovers. These findings have significant policy implications. When cross-border learning is mediated by purposeful economic relationships, access to frontier knowledge is neither automatic nor guaranteed. Firms and governments can facilitate – or restrict – the international diffusion of technology, implying that policies to foster domestic technological upgrading are likely to be most effective when coupled with continued access to global sources of frontier knowledge. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors, international knowledge diffusion, learning-by-doing, cross-border learning |
| JEL: | F50 F61 L63 N60 O30 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13029 |
| By: | Anna French; Nicholas Vreugdenhil |
| Abstract: | We identify a new channel for regulatory leakage: the “permitting channel”. In many settings, permits lock in the regulatory regime at approval, allowing firms to acquire the option to invest under current rules. Unlike the conventional Green Paradox response, this channel operates without accelerating physical investment and pollution. We develop a framework in which firms can use real options to avoid anticipated regulation. We estimate the framework using Colorado’s oil and gas reforms, where permits surged before regulation but drilling did not. Policy-relevant designs that remove the permitting channel substantially reduce the health risks from pollution despite amplifying anticipatory investment. |
| JEL: | Q0 Q4 Q5 Q52 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35794 |
| By: | Maria Garcia-Osipenko; Nicholas Vreugdenhil; Nahim B. Zahur |
| Abstract: | We investigate how endogenous rigidities inhibit physical capital reallocation. We focus on the role of contract duration - a classic example of an adjustment rigidity. We argue that when agents sign longer contracts in booms when markets are thin, they generate a contracting externality which further amplifies thinness and impedes the adjustment of markets to shocks. We develop a dynamic spatial framework with booms and busts where agents search and choose match duration. Applying the framework to the containership leasing market, we find substantial misallocation from endogenous rigidities, particularly in the transition after a crash. |
| JEL: | D22 D23 L14 L22 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35821 |
| By: | Masao Fukui; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson |
| Abstract: | Technical change often simplifies jobs. This increases productivity, but it also makes workers more substitutable–or more "commoditized." Commoditization of labor drives down worker bargaining power: anyone can do the job, implying workers are disposable, which improves the outside option of firms and can lower worker wages. We develop a model that captures both the productivity enhancing and wage depressing effects of commoditizing technical change. Commoditizing technical change involves firms standardizing tasks. This reduces the sensitivity of output to worker quality. Firms benefit because they can more easily fill vacancies for their durable jobs. We show that our model can help explain the divergence between productivity and wages in the service sector, increasing wage markdowns despite falling local concentration, and the decline of the large-firm wage premium. |
| JEL: | E11 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35815 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The world faces the spillovers from the war in the Middle East. In addition to the human toll, its economic effects are global and uneven, once again hitting the poorest and most vulnerable countries the hardest. This comes at a time when policy space has been eroded and geopolitical tensions have been increasing. Spillovers to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) will transmit through supply disruptions, higher commodity prices, second-round effects on inflation and expectations, tighter global financial conditions, exchange rate pressures, and reduced remittances from members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The appropriate policy response depends on how the shock propagates through the domestic economy, calling for pragmatism and agility, supported by credible policy frameworks. In LIDCs, near term policies should be anchored in credible frameworks, while concerted efforts are key to enhance resilience and growth potential. Domestic structural reforms, including building strong institutions, also have an important role in the medium-term to attract stronger FDI inflows and create jobs. Robust support from the international community will be essential—especially for the most vulnerable LIDCs and fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). The IMF stands ready to deploy all its tools to assist the membership—supporting sound policies, helping ensure this new test does not derail key medium-term priorities, and providing balance of payments financing where needed. |
| Keywords: | policy agility; medium-to-long-term inflation expectation; near-term policy priority; fiscal policy; inflation dynamics; policy support; fund surveillance; IMF staff; policy tradeoff; Inflation; Central bank autonomy; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East; Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia |
| Date: | 2026–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfpps:2026/010 |
| By: | Matthew Schwartz; Isaiah Andrews; Jesse M. Shapiro |
| Abstract: | We introduce an open-source workflow that enables an LLM to reproduce, improve, and extend an economics article using the article’s published replication package. First, the workflow attempts to reproduce the original calculations, checks for discrepancies with published findings, and performs automated sensitivity analysis. Across 4, 452 published replication packages for five economics journals, the workflow flags discrepancies in 3, 460 articles or their appendices. Second, the workflow improves the original calculations by using a different implementation or algorithm. In 496 articles, the workflow is able to reduce a calculation’s computation time, at similar or greater accuracy, by more than a factor of 10. Third, the workflow extends the original analysis. In 923 articles, the workflow develops an extension that does not appear in the original article and that is aligned with the original article’s goals and assumptions. |
| JEL: | C80 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35782 |
| By: | Aspasia Bizopoulou; Elias Einiö; Tuomo Virkola |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of firm-level pay transparency policy under different collective bargaining settings. We show that firms react to pay transparency requirements by reducing gender gaps, as intended by policy makers, but also by hiring fewer workers to lower-paid positions, which results in overall wage compression. Gender gap reductions are concentrated in firms under collective bargaining agreements, while hiring reductions and wage compression are concentrated in firms less exposed to collective bargaining, where employers have more discretion over individual wages. These results suggest that the effects of pay transparency on workplace inequality depend on labor market institutions. |
| Keywords: | pay transparency, wage inequality, sorting, work satisfaction, discrimination, collective bargaining |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J38 J52 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26252 |
| By: | Samuel Drößler; Ulrich Fritsche; Junbo Huang; Max Weinig |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how households conceptualize inflation and how these qualitative narratives correlate with inflation expectations and policy preferences. Using a representative survey of over 4, 000 German households, we elicit open-ended narratives regarding the 2022–2023 inflation surge and represent them as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) via fine-tuned large language models. We find that German households overwhelmingly interpret the inflation episode through supply-side channels and the war in Ukraine, while demand-side explanations remain comparatively rare. Beyond these aggregate patterns, inflation narratives systematically vary by financial literacy, personal economic experience, and institutional trust. Narrative structure and content correlate with inflation beliefs: supply-side narratives are associated with lower inflation expectations, whereas narratives emphasizing government action or corporate price gouging correspond to higher expectations and lower target inflation rates. A preregistered randomized information provision experiment using real-world newspaper excerpts demonstrates that exposure to news narratives significantly impacts qualitative inflation expectations, whereas quantitative expectations display greater rigidity. However, narrative exposure significantly reduces reliance on prior inflation perceptions, with treatment effects exhibiting mild heterogeneity across levels of financial literacy and prior inflation experience. |
| Keywords: | . |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2026-014 |