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on Mining |
| By: | Hafez Ghanem |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical rivalries, and especially the competition for access to critical minerals, could be an opportunity for Africa. The objective of African mineral exporters is to diversify their partners and increase processing and value addition on the continent in order to create jobs and enhance export revenues.[1] To succeed, African exporters of critical minerals need to strengthen their coordination and develop joint infrastructure projects and regional value chains. The creation of a platform of key African mineral exporters would be an important step toward enhanced coordination and cooperation. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb33_26 |
| By: | Mouez Fodha (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Aude Pommeret (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc, USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Francesco Ricci (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the economic rationale for opening new mines to extract critical raw materials (CRMs) in Europe, in search of strategic autonomy. We use a real-option framework to analyse a government's decision on the optimal timing of such an investment, taking into account mineral prices and domestic economic activity. The model incorporates geoeconomic fragmentation risk as a source of uncertainty that materializes as jumps in CRM prices. While uncertainty would be expected to delay the start of mining operations, our results show that a countervailing effect also exists, which increases the expected value of the developed mine. Furthermore, we show that the development of recycling does not clarify whether advancing extraction is ultimately socially desirable, underscoring the ambiguous theoretical implications of an expanding supply of secondary materials. |
| Keywords: | mining industry, critical raw materials, real options, geopolitical risk, geoeconomic fragmentation, recycling |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05717731 |
| By: | Imad Hajjaji |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical rivalries, and especially the competition for access to critical minerals, could be an opportunity for Africa. The objective of African mineral exporters is to diversify their partners and increase processing and value addition on the continent in order to create jobs and enhance export revenues.[1] To succeed, African exporters of critical minerals need to strengthen their coordination and develop joint infrastructure projects and regional value chains. The creation of a platform of key African mineral exporters would be an important step toward enhanced coordination and cooperation. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb38_26 |
| By: | Kai Arvai; Nuno Coimbra; Marco Pinchetti |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of international investors’ portfolio choices between gold and sovereign bonds in an environment shaped by economic and geopolitical shocks. We develop an endogenous portfolio choice model where reserve safety has a political dimension — sovereign bonds issued by the dominant reserve country are more liquid but exposed to the issuer’s sanctions authority, while gold offers sanctions protection at the cost of lower liquidity. Our model implies that US convenience yields fall during periods of high sanction risk, as safe-asset demand fragments along geopolitical lines. Empirically, periods of elevated geopolitical risk coincide with higher gold prices and 10-year Treasury yields. In such periods, the average composition of official reserves shifts toward gold, with countries less aligned with the US increasing their holdings to a greater extent. |
| JEL: | E41 F02 F33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35669 |
| By: | Jeonghwan Choi (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Japan’s amended Act on the Promotion of Ensuring National Security through Integrated Implementation of Economic Measures, known as the Economic Security Promotion Act (ESPA), cleared the House of Councillors in June 2026.<p> The amendment does five things: it widens the range of support available for securing a stable supply of specified critical materials, and so strengthens supply chains; it brings an additional industry within the critical infrastructure services regime and improves how that regime is administered; it expands the set of funds eligible to support the development of advanced technology; it extends support to overseas projects that matter for economic security; and it establishes a dedicated research organization and a public-private council for economic security.<p> What stands out in this amendment is that the territory covered by Japan’s economic security legislation has expanded from the tangible to the intangible and from domestic activities to overseas activities. This study examines what is new in the amended ESPA and sets out the implications for Korea’s economic security policy. |
| Keywords: | Economic Security Promotion Act; economic security; supply chains; critical infrastructure; Japan |
| JEL: | F52 F13 L52 O53 |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023561 |
| By: | Caiafa, Clara R. |
| Abstract: | While a growing body of literature has argued that the rise of a global green hydrogen economy can reshape global value chains and trade patterns, significant uncertainty remains about how transformative such reorganization would be. The economic geography literature has examined drivers of industry location and the potential benefits of different spatial organizations of industries, but a comprehensive application of these findings to a green hydrogen economy has so far been missing. This paper bridges the economic geography literature with research on green hydrogen value chains to identify how different drivers can influence the location of activities across the green hydrogen value chain, and the implications thereof for development opportunities across regions. The analysis concludes that most findings about the renewables‑pull effect draw on cost‑optimization perspectives rooted in classical and neoclassical location theory, overlooking many insights from post‑1990s economic geography. Incorporating this broader perspective suggests that the transformational potential of green hydrogen is more limited than often assumed. Places with only factor input and transport cost advantages may attract simple, mature, activities, in industries where process innovation is incremental and led by large incumbents with the ability to exclude rivals, resulting in limited potential for knowledge-spillovers and self-sustained competitiveness. Meanwhile, regions with complex capabilities but limited renewable energy resources may retain high value added activities related to equipment manufacturing and knowledge development. This would mean that even if industry relocation leads to a reorganization of value chains, it would unlikely fundamentally transform prevailing uneven patterns of specialization and diversification. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Decarbonisation, Industry Location, Global Value Chains, Economic Developement, Green Hydrogen |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343028 |
| By: | Rim Berahab; Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | The global energy system has entered a period of acute structural stress following the strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, and the subsequent disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the resulting shock marks the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s oil crises, with systemic characteristics comparable to the combined effects of those crises and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock. This policy paper examines the mechanics of the oil-price shock, then assesses the structural importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy chokepoint, through which an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and LNG transited before the Iran conflict. It highlights the limited substitutability of existing bypass infrastructure under conditions of sustained disruption. It also evaluates the fragmentation of the OPEC+ framework, including the United Arab Emirates’s announced withdrawal from the alliance on May 1, 2026, marking a critical point in the erosion of coordinated production management among major Gulf exporters. Finally, it analyses the role of renewable energy as a structural variable in the crisis, not as a short-term buffer, but as an accelerating force reshaping the geopolitical foundations of energy security. The Hormuz disruption should therefore be understood not only as a price shock, but as a systemic stress test of global energy governance, exposing deep structural fragilities and accelerating realignments across markets, alliances, and the energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb29_26 |
| By: | Kreitmeir, David H.; Lane, Nathan; Raschky, Paul |
| Abstract: | Can markets discipline socially costly misbehavior abroad? We explore the market penalty associated with major human rights violations—specifically, the assassination of mining activists, a context where formal legal recourse is rare and events often do not involve counterparties. We show that firms featured in media coverage of these incidents experience significant, negative abnormal stock returns. Whereas reactions to related forms of corporate misconduct may be transitory or muted, we find that the market responses are both substantial and persistent, with a median 10-day loss exceeding USD 100 million. Since formal legal sanction is exceedingly rare, we consider the role of market penalties. We highlight three mechanisms that are consistent with reputational costs: (1) Media attention magnifies the market response. (2) Information-sensitive institutional investors systematically divest following assassination events. (3) Events reduce future trade, leading to a 19% decline in new contracts with counterparties. Despite these costs, events persist. We find that assassinations increase with dependence on mining royalties, suggesting that local rents sustain conflict despite market pressure. Thus, reputational sanctions may be significant—even in weakly institutionalized settings—yet may not fully deter misbehavior when local and global incentives diverge. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138727 |
| By: | Finck, David (Deutsche Bundesbank); Klein, Mathias (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Tillmann, Peter (University of Giessen) |
| Abstract: | We compile a unique dataset linking micro price data underlying the official Swedish producer price index with administrative firm level data and provide new evidence on the inflationary effects of global supply chain shocks. For identification, we interact exogenous shocks to global supply chains, obtained through a VAR model, with firm specific import shares. Shocks to global supply chains lead to a signif icant and persistent increase in producer prices with a peak response after two years. Importantly, average responses mask heterogeneous responses across firms. Relatively larger firms, firms with lower labor costs and a higher market share raise prices more strongly. |
| Keywords: | Global supply chain shocks; producer prices; microdata; firm characteristics; price setting |
| JEL: | E31 F14 F61 |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0470 |
| By: | Hugo Rojas-Romagosa; Gregor Schwerhoff; Sneha D Thube; Sha Yu |
| Abstract: | Solar and wind power account for a growing share of electricity generation in China and now dominate new capacity additions. As the power system transitions toward renewable generation, greater flexibility will be required to maintain system stability. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the macroeconomic implications of this transition. Model results indicate a modest increase in electricity prices in the near-term, followed by sustained declines as renewable shares rise, particularly when variability is managed through battery storage rather than coal-fired backup generation. While the transition requires substantial adjustments in electricity supply and investment, it raises GDP in the long run and strengthens energy security. Battery-based flexibility outperforms continued reliance on coal across multiple dimensions, even when accounting for rising electricity demand from emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. However, this transition pathway also increases the risk of stranded assets in the coal power sector. |
| Keywords: | China; Energy Transition; Renewable Energy; CGE models |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/185 |
| By: | Sajal Jain (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Diya Dasgupta; Somit Dasgupta; Amrita Goldar |
| Abstract: | The analysis found 340 industry divisions at 5-digit National Industrial Classification (NIC) and 16 broad occupation groups under the National Classification of Occupation (NCO), as EE-relevant. Results indicate that 50.32 hundred thousand workers were employed in EE-relevant product manufacturing roles, accounting for about 8 percent of total manufacturing employment in India in 2023–24. As an EE-enabling catalyst, the paper notes the repair and maintenance segment to play a critical role. The largest contributing industry groups are formed by Repair and Maintenance (23.9 per cent), Construction Materials (12.2 per cent), and Electricals and Electronics (11.1 per cent). The analysis further highlights that EE-relevant employment is predominantly made up of high-skilled workforce (50.6 percent). To ensure a robust analysis, the paper employs a dual assessment framework comprising both output-based and task-based approaches, triangulated with data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). Additionally, select occupational tasks were validated via a mapping between the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) Green Economy Program occupation database and NCO. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, employment, skilling competitiveness, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:435 |
| By: | Xinqi, Guo |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404649 |
| By: | Carnevali, Emilio; Corneo, Giacomo; Vellucci, Pierluigi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a formal framework for the establishment and expansion of a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) from the perspective of Shareholder Socialism. After reviewing the heterogeneous origins and financing arrangements of existing SWFs, we present a dynamic model that characterizes feasible pathways through which advanced economies can build a large-scale public equity fund without relying on natural resource revenues or foreign-exchange reserves. To evaluate the time required to reach target fund-to-GDP ratios under plausible scenarios, we use Monte Carlo simulations that account for return uncertainty. The results indicate that a sizeable public wealth fund can be accumulated within twenty to thirty years. |
| Keywords: | Shareholder Socialism, Sovereign Wealth Fund, Public Ownership, Monte Carlo Estimation |
| JEL: | H0 H5 G11 P2 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:343041 |
| By: | Annie Liu; Pinghui Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the local labor market effects of mega-scale semiconductor investment, using Maricopa County, Arizona, as a case study. The county has received about $300 billion in commitments through the 2030s under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, the largest place based industrial investment in recent US history. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, we find large employment gains, but few of these gains occur within the manufacturing sector. Semiconductor manufacturing shows no measurable net change, as hiring at new facilities offsets reductions at existing ones. The gains instead concentrate in construction—13 to 33 percent above the synthetic counterfactual—and in supply chain sectors—5 to 46 percent above—which together represent about 9, 700 and 7, 100 jobs, respectively. More than 80 percent of the latter fall into wholesale trade and technical services rather than manufacturing. We attribute this composition to the high capital-to-labor ratio of semiconductor fabrication and to a scale threshold in supplier relocation. |
| Keywords: | CHIPS and Science Act; place-based policies; Semiconductor industry |
| JEL: | R11 R58 L63 |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:103718 |
| By: | Mehran Haghirian |
| Abstract: | The war on Iran and in the Gulf has made it impossible to treat the Strait of Hormuz as a regional issue. The disruption around the Strait has moved through the world economy in concrete ways, from higher fuel bills and pressure on food and fertilizer supply chains to rising costs for households and companies far from the conflict. This policy brief examines how Hormuz became one of the main channels through which the costs of the war spread beyond the Gulf. It argues that the crisis exposed the extent to which global markets, food systems, industrial production, mobility, and development finance are tied to the Gulf’s stability. The real issue now is how the Gulf states and their partners can build greater resilience once the war fully ends. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb28_26 |
| By: | Juanma Castro-Vincenzi; Adry Gracio; Gaurav Khanna; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar |
| Abstract: | We study how equilibrium patterns of production, trade, and input sourcing in complex supply chains are shaped by aggregate risk. We develop a quantitative multi-country model with multi-sourcing across stages. We show that sourcing shares equal an input’s expected output elasticity — its expected marginal contribution to output across states of the world. Risk has a positional effect on sourcing and welfare, operating through offsetting cross-stage complementarity and within-stage substitutability; which one dominates is a quantitative question. An increase in a country’s own risk always lowers its welfare; risk elsewhere has ambiguous, sometimes positive, effects through relative prices. We also show analytically that risk attenuates comparative advantage, as countries shift sourcing away from their most productive suppliers. Quantifying the model for 50 countries and 3 production stages, we show that supply-chain complexity lowers volatility for the riskiest countries, and rising Chinese-origin risk reallocates production and lowers welfare unevenly across the chain. |
| JEL: | F1 F40 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35496 |
| By: | John Sturm Becko; Arnaud Costinot |
| Abstract: | We study international cooperation in a general environment with pecuniary and non-pecuniary externalities across countries. We derive two main theorems, each demonstrating that market-access commitments, a form of shallow integration, are sufficient to implement globally efficient policies. When all cross-border externalities are pecuniary, the first theorem provides a new and unifying perspective on a series of results by Bagwell and Staiger. When some cross-border externalities are non-pecuniary, the second theorem shows that market-access commitments, properly extended, still sustain global efficiency. These extended market-access commitments reinterpret cross-border externalities as additional goods that are traded and priced at their social values. We discuss the implications for international cooperation on climate change and geopolitics. |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F12 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35685 |
| By: | Harald Fadinger; Lei Li; Sophia Praetorius; Jan Schymik |
| Abstract: | We study how the U.S.–China trade war affected manufacturing activity in third countries using a novel plant-level dataset covering millions of establishments in 50 major economies, including affiliates of more than 200, 000 multinational enterprises (MNEs). Combining establishment-level data with detailed tariff information, we estimate the effects of U.S. and Chinese punitive bilateral output and input tariffs on sales, employment, and establishments across countries, industries, and stages of production. We find that third-country effects of the trade war are highly heterogeneous and largely offsetting, yielding moderately negative net effects overall. Most of the adjustment is driven by multinational enterprises reallocating activity across affiliate networks, while domestic firms respond much less. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, firm location choice, multinational enterprise, trade policy, tariffs, tariff elasticity, upstreamness, downstreamness, output tariffs, input tariffs, third country effects of trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_776 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | This Approach analyses, in particular, Democratic Republic of Congo evidence after six decades of independence. The Country remains trapped in poverty, the politics interventions were particularly analysed, this, quantified from civil war after independence. On the other hand, the post-independence period was naturally affected by the high level of the vicious circle implemented during the Mobutu president regime, the vicious circle is the relevant channel that drove the Country to high multidimensional poverty. The inequality of regions naturally was intensified, however, the vicious circle in general help to drive the dual economy and dual society in particular, where in majority inside regions of the Country exist majority poorer family, currently the informal economy exist naturally in large majority region's, any activities on Democratic Republic of Congo are made from the informal economy, followed by existence of many informal companies. The Mobutu presidential regime introduced a type of democracy and institutions politics, that guaranteed the privilege from a small group of society, mainly the politicians that had control of the politics and the economics institutions in general. The Democratic Republic of Congo democracy is similar to that verified in countries such as Angola, Mozambique, and Equatorial Guinea. These democracies in particular work to satisfy an interest of a small group of society, mainly the economic interest, that naturally represents democracy at the service of the Vicious circle in particular. These Countries share particularly the same trajectory, such as the politics trajectory and economics trajectory in general, reinforced with the evidence that are naturally verified on the Congo Brazzaville, apparently the Country shows some decentralisation, however, most important decisions are taken from the central government. The economic potential did not provide enough to guarantee the economic transformation in particular, thus, Country sleeps on the abundance of natural resources, furthermore this evidence is in line with the approach of paradox of plenty. |
| Date: | 2026–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fe4gc_v1 |
| By: | Natalia Vechiu (UB - Université de Bordeaux, ESTIA - ESTIA - Institute of technology, ESTIA-Recherche - ESTIA - ESTIA - Institute of technology, CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Manish Kumar Sharma (MIT-WPU - Dr. Vishwanath Karad MIT World Peace University [Pune], IIT Kharagpur - Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the determinants of maritime connections, with a special focus on the importance of foreign direct investments (FDI) in improving maritime transportation networks and in restructuring them. We are also interested in how China, in particular, impacts countries' integration to global supply chains through maritime transportation. We work on a heterogeneous panel of bilateral maritime connections as measured by UNCTAD's bilateral liner shipping connectivity index, and we find that FDIs between two partner countries do not significantly impact their maritime connection. However, we do find that Chinese FDIs in countries concerned by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reinforce bilateral maritime connections between countries, in general, be they BRI countries or not. The Chinese influence is also significant via their maritime presence: maritime connections between two countries are significantly higher when host countries have strong maritime ties to China. A deeper analysis through several interaction effects also shows the Chinese influence is conditional on host countries' attributes. For instance, a maritime connection with China is more beneficial to developing/poorer host countries, who see their connection to origin countries increase more as compared to developed/richer host countries. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, gravity equations, maritime transportation |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05732203 |
| By: | Romani, Ilenia Gaia |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404775 |
| By: | Lucas Costa (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas - FLAR); Carlos Giraldo (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas - FLAR); Iader Giraldo-Salazar (Latin American Reserve Fund) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a multidimensional index of geoeconomic fragmentation (geofragmentation) is developed, and its effects on international trade are examined. Using sixteen indicators spanning trade, finance, mobility, and political dimensions for 98 countries from 2000–2024, we estimate a bloc-restricted dynamic factor model that extracts a global fragmentation factor and four dimension-specific factors without imposing arbitrary weights. We then embed the index in a gravity model estimated via Poisson pseudomaximum likelihood on annual bilateral trade flows from 2000 to 2023, classifying countries into U.S.-aligned, China-aligned, and nonaligned blocs based on UN General Assembly voting patterns. We find that geofragmentation has increased steadily since the global financial crisis and is now approaching its post-September 11 peak. It significantly reduces bilateral trade, with interbloc flows contracting more than intrabloc flows do. However, nonaligned countries increase trade with both blocs during high-fragmentation episodes, likely acting as connectors that partially offset decoupling. These findings suggest that fragmentation is reconfiguring, rather than reversing, global economic integration. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomic fragmentation; dynamic factor model; gravity model; geopolitical blocks |
| JEL: | F02 F51 F60 C33 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:023576 |
| By: | Meryam Amarir |
| Abstract: | Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics infrastructure capable of better withstanding shocks. In this context, corridors are no longer merely transport routes but also instruments of economic security and competitiveness. This shift opens up new prospects for Africa’s Atlantic façade. Thanks to its geographical position, the gradual modernization of its port infrastructure, and the development of regional cooperation initiatives, Africa’s Atlantic façade has several assets that could strengthen its role within international trade networks. However, this opportunity will depend on states’ ability to improve connectivity between existing infrastructure, deepen cooperation, and build more integrated logistics networks. Africa’s Atlantic façade could thus emerge as an area that contributes to strengthening the resilience of global connectivity chains. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb46_26_2 |
| By: | Antonio Haro-Banon |
| Abstract: | The UK economy experienced three major shocks between 2017 and 2022: Brexit, the pandemic, and the European energy crisis. This paper asks whether these events changed the structure of the UK's production network, using detailed data covering 12 UK regions and 105 industries. A key finding is that conventional measures can be misleading. On the face of it, the UK economy appeared to become more interconnected over this period, with standard input‐output multipliers rising by around 5‐6 per cent. However, once inflation and sector-specific price changes are stripped out, that increase disappears. The UK's average multiplier was essentially unchanged. The more important change was structural. Measures of how shocks propagate through supply chains show that the production network became more amplifying and more concentrated, with most of this shift occurring in 2021‐22. The evidence points overwhelmingly to the energy sector, especially electricity and gas, as the source of this change. Brexit‐related effects appear smaller, while pandemic effects are diffuse. The policy lesson is that resilience depends not only on average interconnectedness but also on where influence is concentrated. The energy‐price shock exposed the extent to which a small number of strategically important sectors can reshape the transmission of disturbances across the wider economy. Monitoring these structural vulnerabilities may be as important as tracking headline measures of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | input–output analysis; production-network amplification; price deflation; regional production networks; energy-price episode; UK regions |
| JEL: | C67 R11 R15 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:586 |
| By: | Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Martín Uribe |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the joint behavior over time of the mean and dispersion of U.S. import tariff rates across goods at the HTS 6-digit level, as well as the macroeconomic consequences of the shocks that drive these two moments. We document that the cross-sectional mean and the cross-sectional dispersion of import tariffs move closely together over time. Using a state-space model, we find that both are driven primarily by common shocks, while mean- and dispersion-specific tariff shocks play a negligible role. Thus, effectively, there are no separate mean-tariff shocks or tariff-dispersion shocks; there are only mean-dispersion tariff shocks. These common shocks account for a sizable share of movements in imports and the trade balance but only a small fraction of movements in output. A positive transitory mean-dispersion tariff shock reduces the import-to-output ratio and improves the trade-balance-to-output ratio; a positive permanent mean-dispersion tariff shock also reduces the import-to-output ratio but has a muted effect on the trade-balance-to-output ratio. Positive transitory mean-dispersion tariff shocks are expansionary, whereas positive permanent mean-dispersion tariff shocks are contractionary in the short run and expansionary in the medium run. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 F13 F41 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35661 |
| By: | David Zehner |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic consequences of targeted Western sanctions on Belarus following the 2020 post-election crackdown. This study analyses aggregate exports alongside a specific focus on potash, a vital state revenue engine where Belarus commands 20% of global production, making it a sensitive global commodity. Utilising a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and complemented by Synthetic Control Methods (SCM), the study evaluates bilateral trade flows from 2015 to 2021. The results reveal a structural asymmetry, where the initial economic shock caused a 48.5% contraction in Belarus’s aggregate exports relative to a post-Soviet control group, and potash exports remained insulated, yielding an insignificant coefficient of 0.000 relative to global peers. This divergence suggests that while comprehensive measures disrupted aggregate trade, targeted sectoral sanctions faced enforcement limits. This study contributes to literature on sanction circumvention in integrated regional markets. |
| Keywords: | sanction effectiveness, trade circumvention, Belarus, potash sector, Difference-in-Differences |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:152 |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Bøegh Nielsen, Peter |
| Abstract: | Abstract The findings demonstrate that regional Nordic trade contains significant hidden exposure to non-European markets. On average, 11% of intermediate imports from Nordic neighbors originate from outside Europe at the second tier. A substantial portion of this non-European exposure is concentrated in China (27.1%) and other BRICS+ countries (16.3%), representing a vulnerability that standard trade statistics, based on only direct trade, fail to capture. The methodology provides a framework for future pan-European value chain analysis. |
| Keywords: | Value chain, Tier, Resilience, Nordic, Imports, Vulnerability, Indirect |
| JEL: | F15 F52 |
| Date: | 2026–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:181 |
| By: | Ting Chen (School of Business, Hong Kong Baptist University); Jianan Li (School of Economics, Xiamen University); Chong Pang (Barcelona School of Economics and Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Yuan Zi (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Under what conditions can globalization become a source of state fragility? We provide the first systematic evidence that rigid trade and taxation systems, together with the collapse in global silver production following the Spanish American wars of independence, fueled rising silver prices and social instability in early nineteenth-century Qing China. Using newly assembled county-level panel data and historical commercial routes, we show that regions farther from Canton—the empire's sole legal international port—experienced larger increases in silver prices and greater social unrest following the shock. Silver-denominated taxation was central to this relationship: because taxes were largely fixed in silver terms, rising silver prices sharply increased real tax burdens and fueled instability. Quantitatively, the silver shock reduced China's aggregate welfare by 1.16 percent, with fiscal rigidity accounting for most of the loss. Opening additional international ports would have mitigated the destabilizing effects of the shock, but only modestly. By contrast, fiscal reform would have been far more effective. |
| Keywords: | Trade Costs; Silver Shock; Fiscal Capacity; Social Unrest; Chinese Economy |
| JEL: | L52 F13 R38 |
| Date: | 2026–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp24-2026 |
| By: | Victor Petroff (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon); Gabriel Figueiredo de Oliveira (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of container ports' positions within the global maritime network – particularly their degree of centrality – on port efficiency. Using data from 117 maritime routes in 2010, we analyze 85 international ports located in Asia, Europe, and North America. Several indicators derived from network theory, including centrality, clustering, and the maximum distance of a direct maritime link - which captures a port's ability to serve distant markets - are incorporated into a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model following the double bootstrap methodology proposed by Simar and Wilson (2007). The results reveal significant regional disparities in port efficiency, with Asian ports – especially those in China – achieving the highest performance levels. The second-stage analysis shows that both centrality and clustering have a positive effect on port efficiency. This latter effect is particularly evident among a North American port community benefiting from shipping lines' service design choices. Overall, the findings underscore not only the importance of port positioning within the global maritime network but also the influence of port community structures on port efficiency. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude analyse l'impact de la position des ports à conteneurs dans le réseau maritime mondial, notamment leur degré de centralité, sur leur efficience portuaire. En utilisant les données de 117 routes maritimes en 2010, nous analysons 85 ports internationaux en Asie, en Europe et en Amérique du Nord. Plusieurs indicateurs de la théorie des réseaux, tels que la centralité, le coefficient de regroupement (clustering) et la distance maximale d'une liaison directe mesurant la capacité d'un port à desservir des marchés lointains, sont intégrés dans un modèle d'analyse par enveloppement des données (DEA) à deux étapes, suivant la méthode du double rééchantillonnage de Simar et Wilson (2007). Nos résultats révèlent d'importantes disparités régionales en matière d'efficience portuaire, les ports d'Asie - en particulier ceux de Chine - affichant les niveaux de performance les plus élevés. La deuxième étape du modèle montre que la centralité et le clustering exercent une influence positive sur l'efficience. Ce deuxième effet est spécifique à une communauté portuaire nord-américaine qui bénéficie des choix de conception de services des compagnies maritimes. Ces résultats mettent en évidence non seulement le rôle du positionnement des ports dans l'efficience portuaire, mais également le rôle de la communauté portuaire. |
| Keywords: | Network Theory, Centrality, Efficiency, Ports, Data Envelopment Analysis, Modèle par enveloppement des données, Centralité, Théorie des réseaux, Efficience |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05120552 |