|
on Mining |
| By: | Tomás Domínguez-Iino; Jonathan T. Elliott; Allan Hsiao |
| Abstract: | The green energy transition will be powered by the mining and processing of lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which are critical for the production of advanced batteries. These minerals are concentrated geographically but traded globally, allowing key mining countries to exercise market power through policy intervention. Advanced batteries use multiple minerals in combination, and this joint use creates interdependence across mineral markets. We study the geopolitical implications of these forces and their consequences for green technology adoption worldwide. We quantify supply chain vulnerability, international policy spillovers, and the potential for mineral cartels. |
| JEL: | L13 L72 Q37 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35654 |
| By: | Josh Kirk; Evgenia Passari; Hélène Rey |
| Abstract: | Trade networks underpinning the energy transition are endogenous economic objects, and their structure is a source of market power. Using bilateral trade data for thirteen electrification metals over 1995–2023, we show that trade in these materials has reorganised into a hub-and-spoke system centred on China, in sharp contrast to the diffuse, multilateral structure of fossil fuels. This centrality did not follow from resource endowments: China holds few of the underlying reserves. It was built through processing investment, industrial policy, and commodity-targeted development finance—an equilibrium outcome rather than a geographical accident. We formalise this in a stylised model in which a country chooses how central to become, and show that centrality maps into pricing power: the world price response to a strategic supply cut is stronger when the network is more concentrated and downstream demand and fringe supply are more inelastic. Constructing text-based, commodity-specific supply shocks and estimating local projections, we find that supply contractions in critical metals raise US and EU consumer prices by roughly twice as much as comparable fossil-fuel shocks, and more persistently. Centrality is therefore not merely descriptive: it creates leverage over global prices. The green transition reduces strategic dependence on hydrocarbon exporters but reconstitutes it around mineral supply chains. |
| JEL: | F49 F50 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35497 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the persistent challenge of resource dependence in the world's poorest countries, focusing on the ten poorest African nations where natural- resource rents average 14% of income. It argues that four decades of conventional policy advice, which treated resource dependence primarily as a revenue management problem, have failed to help these countries. While stabilization funds and permanent-income frameworks aim to smooth consumption, they do not answer the fundamental question of how to transform resource wealth into permanent productive capacity capable of generating income after rents decline. The paper identifies a critical research gap in industrial-policy literature: many African least developed countries (LDCs) occupy a unique position characterized by weak administrative capacity and small domestic markets, but possess temporarily large fiscal space created by resource rents. This combination creates a "race against the clock, " as the global energy transition and rapid technological change are shortening the economic life of both hydrocarbons and critical minerals. The paper argues that the goal of resource policy must shift from "revenue smoothing" to "productive-capacity replacement" before this fiscal window closes. Empirical analysis reveals that the failure of resource booms did not result from a lack of investment, but an inability to convert capital into productivity. To assess this issue, the paper undertakes two complementary growth decompositions for eleven African economies, distinguishing resource-intensive countries from successful diversifiers. The results show that while many resource-intensive economies accumulated physical capital, their total factor productivity (TFP) was often negative, and labor productivity collapsed after commodity cycles peaked. In contrast, a group of "African diversifiers"—such as Ethiopia, Ghana, and Tanzania—achieved sustained gains by directing public investment toward labor-intensive manufacturing and tradable services, even without heavy resource endowments. To address these failures, the paper proposes a rent-financed "Big Push" framework. Unlike traditional models focused on domestic demand, this strategy is value-chain-oriented, emphasizing the connection of firms and workers to regional and global production systems. The framework prioritizes the creation of export platforms (special economic zones), trade-enabling infrastructure, and human capital for tradable production. It advocates for a strict fiscal hierarchy where resource revenues are treated as "transformation finance" rather than recurrent income, separating a dedicated "transformation window" from short- term stabilization needs. Ultimately, the paper warns that delayed transformation is, in practice, no transformation. As technological substitution and climate-consistent scenarios reduce the long-term value of resources, African LDCs must use their remaining rents to build competitive non-resource sectors. The "race against the clock" suggests that the greatest wealth of these nations is not the resources themselves, but the brief opportunity they provide to fund a permanent productive economy. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:rp_13-26 |
| By: | Aduda, Levke; Aduda, Annette Adhiambo |
| Abstract: | Sand is the second-most exploited natural resource after water, with global demand for it steadily increasing. Yet the societal and conflict-related impacts of sand mining remain understudied. This Working Paper examines the conditions under which sand mining generates violent conflict. We argue that violence is most likely to occur where local authorities and law enforcement are corrupt or embedded in the sand economy, and where communities strongly depend on related incomes. Under these conditions, competition between mining groups, conflicts with local communities over environmental damage, and stricter enforcement measures can escalate into violence. An in-depth case study of Makueni County, Kenya, based on fieldwork and media reports supports these expectations. Our findings highlight the need to systematically integrate sand extraction into resource-governance frameworks to protect both the environment and peace. |
| Keywords: | Kenya, sand mining, violent conflict, corruption, competition, grievances, enforcement equilibrium |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gigawp:343074 |
| By: | Hong Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the paradoxical mechanism by which one country’s protectionist industrial policy unintentionally redirects the path of technological innovation in its trading partners, often to the supplying country’s own disadvantage. Historical episodes, including the OPEC oil shock, the Soviet Union’s threats to natural gas supplies to the West, China’s rare earth embargo against Japan, and US semiconductor export controls against China, share a common pattern.<p> First, the supplying country restricts exports of the resources and technologies it holds, or manipulates their prices, inflicting a supply shock on the importing country. The relative price of the resource then surges, dramatically raising the incentives of firms and researchers in the importing country to develop substitute and workaround technologies. Private R&D combines with the government’s directed industrial policy (R&D subsidies, public procurement, and regulatory reform) to bring substitute technologies quickly to market.<p> Over the long run, the importing country’s dependence on the resource declines, and the supplying country’s bargaining power and market position erode. This study argues that a supply restriction strategy raises short-term bargaining power but can carry a self-defeating quality, eating away the supplier’s own market base. For the importing country, by contrast, a supply shock can become the occasion for a technological leap, and here the government’s directed industrial policies, R&D subsidies among them, act as complements that accelerate private innovation. |
| Keywords: | rare earths; rare earth elements; REEs; directed technological change; DTC; protectionism; industrial policy; supply chain security; resource weaponization; economic security |
| JEL: | F13 F52 L52 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023560 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Lambert, Peter John |
| Abstract: | Policy debates on ‘critical minerals’ have multiplied faster than our empirical tools for identifying which products are system-critical. Most existing lists are expert-driven and static; they say little about how upstream raw materials and downstream technologies are knit together in global production networks, or about the asymmetric roles of large demand and supply hubs. This paper proposes a network index of criticality (NIC), built from trade data and a directed production network, that integrates (i) a product’s share in world trade, (ii) exporter and importer concentration, and (iii) its position in a product-input network. Criticality here refers to systemic exposure encoded in tradeable production networks; it is not a welfare metric and it is not a measure of physical scarcity. We show that NIC aligns with revealed policy attention in official critical-mineral lists. We then construct three families of counterfactuals that remove China, the United States, or the European Union from trade on either the export (supply) or import (demand) side. These scenarios yield product-level diagnostics of hub dependence and map directly to policy instrument choice (e.g. recycling standards, permitting and processing investment, strategic reserves, or trusted-partner agreements). |
| Keywords: | climate action;critical minerals;industrial policy;production networks;supply chain resilience;trade concentration |
| JEL: | F10 F40 F50 O30 L60 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140668 |
| By: | Kawimbe, Robyn |
| Abstract: | Since the election of President Hakainde Hichilema in August 2021, Zambia has undertaken a substantial programme of macroeconomic stabilisation, sovereign debt restructuring, institutional reform, energy diversification and renewed investment in the mining sector. This article examines whether these developments amount to more than a conventional economic recovery and instead represent the emergence of a new developmental order centred upon fiscal discipline, productive capacity, energy security, strategic mineral governance and institutional inclusion. The article adopts a qualitative political-economy methodology combining documentary analysis of Zambian legislation and government policy with evidence from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), ZESCO, Parliament of Zambia and major mining-sector actors. It employs a theoretical framework combining developmental-state theory, state-capacity theory and the concept of strategic economic sovereignty. The analysis finds that Zambia has made demonstrable progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. Inflation returned to the Bank of Zambia's target range in April 2026, international reserves increased substantially, fiscal consolidation progressed and Zambia reached agreements covering most of the external-debt restructuring perimeter. In May 2026, the Government announced a further debt-for-energy transaction involving approximately US$1.365 billion of sovereign notes and a US$600 million African Development Bank facility, linking debt management directly to national grid resilience. The article further examines Zambia's attempt to convert its copper endowment into a foundation for industrial development, including greater domestic processing and value addition, alongside substantial investment in solar generation and electricity infrastructure. Constitutional and institutional reforms designed to strengthen representation of women, youth and persons with disabilities are considered as components of a broader conception of state legitimacy. Anti-corruption initiatives and access-to-information reforms are similarly analysed as mechanisms of institutional accountability. The article nevertheless cautions against equating macroeconomic improvement with completed development. Poverty, inequality, electricity insecurity, commodity dependence, unemployment and corruption risks remain significant. The article concludes that Zambia's principal achievement under the Hichilema administration is best understood not as the completion of national transformation but as the construction of an institutional and macroeconomic platform from which transformation may become possible. Zambia's experience consequently offers lessons for resource-rich developing states seeking to reconcile debt sustainability, critical-mineral development, renewable energy, international investment and national economic sovereignty. |
| Date: | 2026–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:hy8s7_v1 |
| By: | Britto, Anthony; Scharnhorst, Leandra; Kleinebrahm, Max; Fichtner, Wolf |
| Abstract: | The DEIMOS project developed and applied two complementary open-source modeling frameworks, FORECAST-Sites Extended and iSTEDS, together with openly accessible industrial datasets. These resources enable transparent and reproducible analysis of industrial decarbonization pathways across sectors, technologies, and locations. FORECAST-Sites Extended captures site-specific investment decisions, including asset vintages, reinvestment timing, technology costs, and infrastructure access, while iSTEDS assesses industrial electrification and demand-side flexibility. Applied in three case studies, the models highlighted the roles of hydrogen, carbon capture, and electrification in industrial transformation. Together, the models and datasets provide an open-science foundation for analyzing industrial transition and supporting future energy and climate policy. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:343114 |
| By: | Rim Berahab; Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | The global energy system has entered a period of acute structural stress following the strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, and the subsequent disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the resulting shock marks the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s oil crises, with systemic characteristics comparable to the combined effects of those crises and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock. This policy paper examines the mechanics of the oil-price shock, then assesses the structural importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy chokepoint, through which an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and LNG transited before the Iran conflict. It highlights the limited substitutability of existing bypass infrastructure under conditions of sustained disruption. It also evaluates the fragmentation of the OPEC+ framework, including the United Arab Emirates’s announced withdrawal from the alliance on May 1, 2026, marking a critical point in the erosion of coordinated production management among major Gulf exporters. Finally, it analyses the role of renewable energy as a structural variable in the crisis, not as a short-term buffer, but as an accelerating force reshaping the geopolitical foundations of energy security. The Hormuz disruption should therefore be understood not only as a price shock, but as a systemic stress test of global energy governance, exposing deep structural fragilities and accelerating realignments across markets, alliances, and the energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb29_26 |
| By: | Loubna Eddallal |
| Abstract: | The renewed instability in the Middle East has exposed Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies transit, have once again demonstrated that African fuel security remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments beyond the continent. While many African economies have traditionally relied on refined petroleum imports from Gulf producers, the current crisis is accelerating the emergence of a continental alternative. The Dangote Refinery is increasingly functioning as a continental contingency mechanism by supplying refined petroleum products to African markets facing supply uncertainty. Although this role is driven by commercial incentives rather than coordinated policy, it represents an important shift in Africa's energy geography: for the first time, a continental refining hub possesses the scale to partially cushion African markets against external supply disruptions and strengthen Africa's control over the oil value chain. Dangote's potential to serve as a strategic energy supplier for Africa creates significant trade and energy-security opportunities for several African countries, particularly Morocco, whose aviation market has been expanding rapidly since 2024. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb48_26 |
| By: | Giulo Cifarelli |
| Abstract: | We employ Logistic Smooth Transition (LSTAR) copulas with GARCH margins to investigate the transmission of dependence across major financial assets and two key benchmark commodities. Our analysis first examines the remarkably resilient role of gold as a hedging and safe-haven asset and compares its performance with that of WTI crude oil futures as an alternative strategic commodity. The proposed estimation framework provides a flexible approach to modelling time-varying dependence structures, avoiding arbitrary assumptions regarding the identification of contagion episodes or the definition of extreme market movements. The superior fit of the Gaussian copula specifications suggests that gold occupies a central position in the transmission of information across financial markets. Surprisingly, however, crude oil appears to outperform gold as a risk-hedging instrument during periods of heightened uncertainty, offering more effective downside protection in crisis episodes across three major markets. Another particularly robust finding concerns the dominant role of the CBOE VIX Index as the transition variable within the LSTAR framework. International sources of financial turbulence seem to affect dependence structures primarily when transmitted through the U.S. equity market, highlighting both the pivotal role of U.S. financial markets in the global financial system and their function as a conduit through which economically relevant information is assimilated and propagated by market participants. |
| Keywords: | Standard Essential Patents, Licensing Level, Automotive Industry, SEP regulation, TTBER |
| JEL: | G10 G11 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_14.rdf |
| By: | Wansleben, Leon |
| Abstract: | Renewable electrification - upstream switches to variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, combined with downstream electrification - implies a profound reconfiguration of the energy-society nexus. This is evidenced by significant frictions and political conflicts that intensify at the very moments at which the diffusion of the respective technologies gains pace. Existing transition scholarship has not sufficiently captured these dynamics since it lacks a conception of regime instability and trusts too optimistically in transition progress through economic and policy feedbacks. I leverage the concept of "mismatch" or "structural adjustment" crises from innovation economics to capture situations in which technology adoption happens broadly and quickly, while the development of integrative mechanisms adjusted to the demands of renewable energy lags behind. We see this evidenced by mismatch crises that manifest in three domains: Infrastructures facilitating energy production and use are maladapted to variable power; status orders are destabilized amid growing distributional conflict; and institutions of energy governance are not appropriately reformed. Identifying these manifestations of mismatch crisis does not automatically imply a need to slow down the transition but rather to explore much-needed reforms to establish the integrative foundations for societies powered by renewables. |
| Abstract: | Die Elektrifizierung des Energieverbrauchs, kombiniert mit Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien, impliziert eine tiefgreifende Neuordnung des Verhältnisses von Energie und Gesellschaft. Dies zeigt sich an der Zunahme von Friktionen und politischen Konflikten in genau jenen Phasen, in denen die Diffusion der jeweiligen Technologien an Fahrt gewinnt. Die bisherige Forschung zu Energiewenden hat diese Krisen- und Konfliktdynamiken unzureichend erfasst, weil ihr ein Konzept von Regimeinstabilität fehlt und sie allzu optimistisch auf Fortschritte durch ökonomische und politische Rückkopplungen vertraut. Ich rekurriere auf den Begriff der strukturellen Anpassungskrisen aus der Innovationsökonomik, um Situationen zu erfassen, in denen Technologien in der Breite und mit hoher Geschwindigkeit diffundieren, während die Entwicklung integrativer Mechanismen, zugeschnitten auf die Anforderungen einer erneuerbaren Elektrifizierung, hinterherhinkt. Entsprechend manifestieren sich Anpassungskrisen in drei Dimensionen: Infrastrukturen zur Energieerzeugung und -nutzung sind nicht auf variable Quellen von Energie eingestellt; Statusordnungen sind durch wachsende Verteilungskonflikte destabilisiert; und Institutionen der Governance von Energiesystemen sind nicht angemessen reformiert. Die Identifikation solcher Anpassungskrisen bedeutet nicht automatisch, dass Energiewenden verlangsamt werden sollten; vielmehr gilt es, dringend notwendige Reformen auszuloten, um die integrativen Grundlagen für Gesellschaften zu schaffen, die sich mit erneuerbaren Energien versorgen. |
| Keywords: | decarbonization conflicts, energy transitions, governance and institutions of energy systems, structural adjustment crises, Dekarbonisierungskonflikte, Energiewende, Governance und Institutionen des Energiesystems, strukturelle Anpassungskrisen |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:343081 |
| By: | Felix B. Schäfer (Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)); David Wohlleben (Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | In the EU, hydrogen production must meet additionality and temporal correlation requirements to qualify as a renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBO), which puts renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) into focus. We first derive hypotheses on how RFNBO criteria, renewable electricity support schemes, and the default risk of hydrogen suppliers jointly affect hydrogen supply costs. We then model the supplier’s electricity procurement and asset configuration problem as a stochastic optimization under weather-year uncertainty, incorporating risk preferences. Further, we approximate the near-optimal solution space by exploiting the problem’s convexity. Finally, we test the hypotheses in a case study for Germany: We find RFNBO criteria to raise hydrogen supply costs by 14–41 EUR/MWhH2 , with additionality, default risk, and hourly matching being the main cost drivers. The interaction of renewable electricity support schemes with the additionality criterion further shapes the technological and regional composition of the optimal PPA portfolio. Tighter temporal correlation enlarges the optimal PPA portfolio and makes surplus electricity sales a key cost-reduction channel. Annual supply costs vary by 4–20 EUR/MWhH2 between the most and least favorable weather years, with the largest variations under hourly matching. A risk-averse supplier weighs expected costs against interannual costs variability, though the trade-off appears small. The near-optimal solution space contains PPA portfolios of different compositions. However, its size and thus the hydrogen supplier’s flexibility in technology choice shrink with stricter RFNBO criteria, especially when accounting for the hydrogen supplier’s default risk. We discuss that hydrogen suppliers’ default risk is especially relevant during the market ramp-up phase, and that introducing the additionality criterion and tight temporal matching regimes without de-risking instruments could further slow down market ramp-up dynamics. |
| Keywords: | RFNBO; Power purchase agreement (PPA); Renewable energy support schemes; Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH); Near-optimal solutions; Environmental policy |
| JEL: | C61 D81 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:023573 |
| By: | Flores Zendejas, Juan; Nodari, Gianandrea |
| Abstract: | This article explores how profit-seeking behavior among central banks shaped their adherence to the gold exchange standard during the interwar period, focusing on the case of Chile. Existing literature has emphasized ideology, credibility, and political considerations to explain monetary orthodoxy. However, it has largely overlooked the role of financial incentives embedded in the structure of the gold exchange regime. Drawing on new archival evidence, particularly the minutes of the Central Bank of Chile’s Board of Directors, we show that the institution actively managed its foreign reserves to maximize returns by placing them in correspondent banks in London and New York. This proactive strategy was encouraged by institutional design and shareholder expectations but created vulnerabilities by reducing reserve liquidity and increasing exposure to currency and counterparty risk. These fragilities became evident during the sterling crisis of 1931, when Chile incurred severe losses and was unable to act as a lender of last resort, leading to its abandonment of the gold standard in 1932. The Chilean case reflects broader practices among European and Latin American central banks, revealing how profitability considerations shaped monetary behavior and contributed to systemic fragility. |
| JEL: | E58 F33 N16 N26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnv:wpaper:unige:195486 |
| By: | Jorrit Gosens; Alex B. H. Turnbull; Frank Jotzo |
| Abstract: | There is renewed attention for maritime chokepoints and their potential disruption of global trade in energy. We analyse global trade in coal, and find that it is highly resilient to maritime chokepoints. Feasible chokepoints do not truly sever any supply from the seaborne market. Potential re-routing of trade flows, and switching to alternative suppliers or consumers moderates effects on costs and revenues. We assess costs to importers would rise by as little as 0.5 \$/t or less in case of closures of most feasible chokepoints. The exception is a restriction to maritime traffic in the South and East China Sea, which could raise costs by 10 \$/t for China, whilst reducing costs for other importers in the region by similar levels. Maritime chokepoints do create geographical separation of regional markets, and therefore do not have a globally uniform effect on costs to importers and revenues to exporters. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.00328 |
| By: | Mahmoud El Hassouni (MFMDI - Laboratoire MFMDI, SUP MTI Rabat) |
| Abstract: | The international system of 2026 is no longer organized around territorial sovereignty or financial dominance. It is structured by the control of flows—physical, energy, informational, and commercial. However, traditional analytical frameworks —geopolitics, geoeconomics, and supply chain management— capture these dimensions in a fragmented manner, without revealing their integrated power dynamics. This article introduces geologistics as an original transdisciplinary concept, defined as the analytical discipline that examines how the control of physical flows—from geological extraction to the final market—constitutes the primary determinant of state power and industrial sovereignty in a regime of structural interdependence. To operationalize this concept, it proposes the Geologistics Quadri-Pillar Framework (GQF), an analytical matrix articulating four structural pillars (geological endowment, logistical infrastructure, geostrategic governance, and cultural and epistemic capital) across three levels of analysis (macro-strategic, managerial, and operational). The formal compatibility of the GQF with network theory and game theory positions it as a prospective tool. The article illustrates its analytical value through three contemporary geologistical configurations: the Belt and Road Initiative, the Africa-Americas corridors, and the recomposition of geostrategic balances in the Middle East. |
| Abstract: | Le système international de 2026 n'est plus organisé autour de la souveraineté territoriale ni de la domination financière. Il est structuré par le contrôle des flux – physiques, énergétiques, informationnels et commerciaux. Or, les cadres analytiques classiques – géopolitique, géoéconomie, management des chaînes d'approvisionnement – saisissent ces dimensions en ordre dispersé, sans en restituer la logique intégrée de puissance. Cet article introduit la géologistique comme concept transdisciplinaire original, défini comme la discipline analytique qui examine comment le contrôle des flux physiques – de l'extraction géologique au marché final – constitue le déterminant premier de la puissance étatique et de la souveraineté industrielle en régime d'interdépendance structurelle. Pour opérationnaliser ce concept, il propose le Geologistics Quadri-Pillar Framework (GQF), une matrice analytique articulant quatre piliers structurels (dotation géologique, infrastructure logistique, gouvernance géostratégique, capital culturel et épistémique) à travers trois niveaux d'analyse (macro-stratégique, managérial, opérationnel). La compatibilité formelle du GQF avec la théorie des réseaux et la théorie des jeux le positionne comme instrument prospectif. L'article illustre sa valeur analytique à travers trois configurations géo-logistiques contemporaines : l'Initiative Ceinture et Route (Belt and Road Initiative), les corridors Afrique-Amériques, et la recomposition des équilibres géostratégiques au Moyen-Orient. |
| Keywords: | Power of flows, Middle East, Multipolar world, Geostrategic Governance, Critical minerals, Cultural capital, Géologistique, GQF, puissance des flux, corridors stratégiques, minéraux critiques, capital culturel, gouvernance géostratégique, souveraineté industrielle, monde multipolaire, Moyen-Orient Geologistics, Strategic corridors |
| Date: | 2026–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05697580 |
| By: | Grigoriadis, Theocharis |
| Abstract: | Why does industrialization in some cases generate social consolidation and in other cases political conflict? This paper argues that the answer depends on how industrial finance is allocated. I develop a dynamic political-economy model in which the government channels external liquidity into industry under either centralized or decentralized finance. Under decentralization, adverse shocks harden budget constraints and permit replacement of inefficient incumbents by new entrepreneurs. Under centralization, by contrast, the government is more likely to refinance inefficient incumbents, soften budget constraints, and block entry. Industrialization then generates concentrated rents and a higher risk of conflict. I interpret late imperial Russia as a historically revealing case of this mechanism. Rather than treating Russia as the sole object of interest, the paper uses it to motivate a general theory of industrialization under monopoly. |
| Keywords: | industrialization, soft budget constraints, centralized finance, incumbent protection, political conflict |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:342461 |
| By: | Valentin Burban; Pavel Diev; Gilles Dufrénot; Nelson Mongeaud |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new empirical taxonomy of safe assets based on their safe-haven behavior during periods of global risk aversion. Our multi-criteria framework captures the persistent performance of bond securities, currencies, and alternative assets during episodes of acute risk-off sentiment, allowing us to construct a cross-asset ranking of safe-haven behavior by asset characteristics: global safe assets, credit-sensitive assets, and emerging assets. We find that sovereign bonds issued by G10 economies, including U.S. Treasuries, consistently exhibit the strongest safe-haven behavior. A limited set of corporate bond markets displays partial safe-asset characteristics, while gold is the only alternative asset that consistently scores highly across our safe-haven criteria, particularly during periods of geopolitical risk. We further show that U.S. Treasuries have exhibited weaker safe-haven properties since the pandemic, although this reflects a broader reconfiguration of global safe-asset hedging properties rather than a uniquely U.S. decline. We find that weaker safe-haven properties are associated with higher inflation, debt levels and scarcity of available assets. |
| Keywords: | Safe Assets, Safe-Haven, U.S. Treasuries, Asset Pricing, Risk Aversion. |
| JEL: | F31 E44 G01 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1049 |
| By: | Peress, Joël; Schmidt, Daniel Jonas |
| Abstract: | A critical question facing speculators contemplating to trade on private information is whether their signal has already been priced in by the market. In our model, speculators assess the novelty of their information based on recent price movements, and market makers are aware that speculators might be trading on stale news. An asymmetric response to past price movements ensues: after price increases, buy volume—because it may result from stale news trading—has a lower price impact than sell volume (and vice versa after price decreases). Consequently, return skewness is negatively related to lagged returns. We find strong support for these and other predictions using a comprehensive sample of US stocks. |
| Keywords: | Strategic trading |
| JEL: | G11 G14 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19273 |
| By: | Loukas Karabarbounis; Bruno Pellegrino; Juliana Salomao |
| Abstract: | We develop a general-equilibrium model of the global economy that integrates heterogeneous firms competing in product markets with countries that allocate capital around the world. Combining a hedonic demand system on the product side with a mean-variance portfolio system on the asset side, we obtain almost closed-form solutions for the equilibrium of the model. We use firm-level data on balance sheets, geographic breakdowns of revenue and employment, and business descriptions along with country-level data on bilateral equity holdings and trade costs to quantify the model to a cross section of roughly 23, 000 listed firms in 48 countries. We use the model to evaluate the reallocation and welfare effects of globalization. Both financial and trade liberalization concentrate activity among the largest firms and raise welfare, with gains being larger in emerging and mid-sized open economies respectively. Product- and capital-market frictions amplify each other, meaning that liberalizing one market reduces the gains from liberalizing the other. |
| JEL: | D2 F36 F60 G11 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35652 |
| By: | Harald Fadinger; Lei Li; Sophia Praetorius; Jan Schymik |
| Abstract: | We study how the U.S.–China trade war affected manufacturing activity in third countries using a novel plant-level dataset covering millions of establishments in 50 major economies, including affiliates of more than 200, 000 multinational enterprises (MNEs). Combining establishment-level data with detailed tariff information, we estimate the effects of U.S. and Chinese punitive bilateral output and input tariffs on sales, employment, and establishments across countries, industries, and stages of production. We find that third-country effects of the trade war are highly heterogeneous and largely offsetting, yielding moderately negative net effects overall. Most of the adjustment is driven by multinational enterprises reallocating activity across affiliate networks, while domestic firms respond much less. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, firm location choice, multinational enterprise, trade policy, tariffs, tariff elasticity, upstreamness, downstreamness, output tariffs, input tariffs, third-country effects of trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12942 |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno; Yasuyuki Todo |
| Abstract: | China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has driven a global surge in large-scale infrastructure projects. While existing research has focused primarily on the BRI's effects on economic outcomes in participating countries, such as investment, trade, and debt dynamics, its economic and diplomatic implications for Western nations that do not participate in the BRI yet compete with China in global infrastructure development remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how the BRI has affected Japanese overseas infrastructure projects and Japan's diplomatic engagement with BRI countries. Using an event-study framework within a staggered difference-in-differences design and a panel of 123 low- and middle-income countries from 2007 to 2020, we find that the BRI significantly crowded out Japanese infrastructure projects and reduced visits to Japan by political leaders from BRI countries. These effects are especially pronounced among countries geographically proximate to Japan and China, where competitive pressures are most intense. Â |
| Keywords: | China, Japan, Belt and Road Initiative, overseas infrastructure investment, diplomatic relations |
| JEL: | F21 O19 P00 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2026-05 |
| By: | Helle, Caroline; Karwowski, Nicole; Rucker, Randal |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404738 |
| By: | Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland, NBER, CEPR); Michael McLeay (Bank of England); Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics); Enrico D Turri (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We show that the optimal monetary policy and exchange rate framework depend critically on the economy’s commodity exposure. We develop a flexible but tractable model economy with commodity exports and imports, in which international financial conditions may vary with the commodity cycle, and we compute the welfare-optimal policy in the presence of price and wage rigidities. Stabilising domestic prices is welfare-optimal for commodity exporters, in line with standard open-economy policy prescriptions. But for economies that use commodities as inputs in production, optimal policy largely ‘looks through’ the direct and indirect effects of commodity shocks on domestic prices; this contrasts with some earlier findings and policy practice (which only ‘looks through’ the direct effect). In emerging and developing economies, where financial conditions are more tied to the commodity cycle, trade-offs are starker and implementing the optimal policy may be challenging, since it requires enough credibility to keep inflation expectations anchored amidst greater volatility in some nominal variables. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;exchange rates;inflation targeting;commodity prices;small open economy |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F41 Q02 Q30 |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023308 |
| By: | Christoff Scherrer (Kassel Institute for Sustainability & Global Labour University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the possibility of using voluntary carbon credits to retire coal-fired power plants early. It introduces carbon emission trading using the example of the substantial European emissions trading market. It presents recommendations for phasing out coal power plants and discusses the challenges of calculating plant proprietors' losses and carbon emission savings. It also outlines the specific challenges of voluntary carbon credits and the need to monitor carbon credit deals. These issues are illustrated with the world’s first Energy Transition Mechanism transaction for the early retirement of a coal plant owned by ACEN in the Philippines: the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation (SLTEC). It analyzes the financial transactions carried out by the power plant owner and the envisaged use of voluntary carbon credits. The paper concludes that there are many obstacles to moving beyond a few pilot projects. |
| Keywords: | energy transition; voluntary carbon credits; coal power plant; Philippines |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202505 |
| By: | Joan Christine S. Allon-Pineda (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Eduard Renzo D. Santos (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) |
| Abstract: | Successive supply shocks led to above-target inflation for the Philippines from 2021 to 2023. Formulating the optimal policy response to bring inflation back to target requires central banks to have estimates of the direct and indirect pass through of supply shocks to domestic inflation. We estimate the direct and second round effects of shocks to global oil, global food, and domestic rice prices on various measures of inflation as well as inflation expectations using local projections methodology. In addition, we examine the asymmetry in the pass-through of price increases vis-Ã -vis a price reductions. Global oil and food price shocks produce significant and persistent inflationary responses that trigger further second-round effects and a significant but lagged impact on month-ahead inflation expectations. Decomposing realized inflation, the impact of global oil shocks has historically been larger than food shocks. Second-round effects from oil shocks are larger than its direct effects, while the latter is larger for global food and domestic price shocks. This is consistent with the role of oil as an intermediate good, which is in contrast with both food and rice which are considered final commodities. Assessing the asymmetry of shocks, headline and core inflation were found to respond asymmetrically to oil price shocks, although the effect does not persist for more than a month. Policymakers must continue to monitor the emergence of second-round effects and ensure that inflation expectations are well-anchored, especially during large, positive oil and food price shocks. |
| JEL: | E31 E37 C32 C36 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202506 |
| By: | McDowall, Will; Fuchs, Janina |
| Abstract: | Policymakers globally have been and remain interested in understanding the scale of economic activity associated with various aspects of the green economy. But defining what is ‘green’ is not straightforward, and standard industrial classifications are unhelpful for many areas of green activity which involve relatively new technologies. This research has been funded by the Office for National Statistics as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). The report reviews the definitions of ‘green’ economic activity used in a variety of contexts, and considers whether and how the UK’s approaches to estimating the ‘Environmental Goods and Service Sector’ could be improved. |
| Keywords: | Green Economy; Environmental Policy; Green Jobs; Environmental Regulation; Sustainability Indicators; Green Economic Activity; Environmental Accounting; Green Technologies; Environmental Data |
| JEL: | E01 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-09 |
| By: | C Lennart Baumgärtner; Jorge Cárdenas Prieto; Cameron Hepburn, Robert A Ritz |
| Keywords: | Cost of equity, hurdle rate, infrastructure investment, idiosyncratic risk, regulation |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G31 H54 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2620 |
| By: | Shinji Kakinaka; Ken Umeno |
| Abstract: | Cross-correlations between financial signals are neither scale-free nor amplitude-independent: they vary with the time scale over which they are measured and with the magnitude of the fluctuations that dominate the average. We exploit this structure to construct a portfolio allocation model in which the risk functional is the signed fluctuation function of multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA), indexed by a scale $s$ and a fluctuation order $q$. Unlike MFDCCA-type criteria, which rectify local detrended covariances before aggregation, MFCCA retains their sign, so that co-moving and counter-moving components contribute to risk with opposite signs; for $q=2$ the resulting quadratic form coincides with the detrended fluctuation function of the portfolio series itself, recovering the mean--variance criterion as a scale-dependent limit. Using two-component ARFIMA and Markov-switching multifractal processes, we show that prescribed multiscale and multifractal dependence is transmitted into the optimal weights, and that sign preservation contributes more to the reduction of tail risk than aggregation over fluctuation orders. Applied to financial multi-assets, the criterion lowers drawdown, Value-at-Risk, and expected shortfall relative to the mean--variance benchmark at every required return, in and out of sample, without any loss in realized portfolio return. The construction maps signed multiscale interaction structures onto resource-allocation decisions, and applies to any complex system whose components interact across heterogeneous scales with amplitude-dependent coupling. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.04987 |
| By: | Huneeus, Federico; Del Valle Fuentes, Miguel Angel |
| Abstract: | To understand the geographic and sectoral impact of productivity, we build the first input-output matrix disaggregated at the geographic level within a country using unique administrative data harmonized to match national accounts. We use this data from Chile to calibrate a state-of-the-art general equilibrium quantitative trade model with production networks, labor mobility, firm selection, international and domestic trade, congestion of fixed factors, and knowledge diffusion. We consider two applications. First, we study the aggregate effects of local productivity shocks. We show that location-sector interactions are crucial: locations and sectors separately account for less than half of the dispersion in GDP elasticities from location-sector- specific productivity shocks. Geography-specific input-output linkages explain 16% of the dispersion, due to the role played by small and influential markets. Second, we analyze the exit of a large steel plant. We show that geographically disaggregated production linkages substantially increase the propagation of the plant exit. |
| Keywords: | Spatial economics;Geographic distribution;Input-output linkages;Trade |
| JEL: | F11 F17 R15 D57 E01 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14713 |