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on Mining |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Frederick van der Ploeg; Rick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | Critical mineral maps portray known resource endowments as fixed geographic facts, yet the resource base is endogenous to both demand conditions and institutional factors. The prevailing framing of critical mineral scarcity ignores the extent to which resources are discovered only when it is profitable to do so. Using a two-region model of endogenous reserves, we show that exploration investment and discovered reserves respond to global demand shocks, world resource prices, and the institutional environment facing international resource companies, including explicit and implicit taxes on exploration and on exports, including export bans and restrictive trade measures in pursuit of value-chain upgrading. While export bans may be attractive as industrial policy, they risk being self-defeating: by discouraging exploration investment, they reduce the very resource base on which industrial ambitions depend. We document the global proliferation of export restrictions on critical minerals and discuss the policy implications for developing countries navigating the twin pressures of resource nationalism and the green transition. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, endogenous resources, exploration investment, export ban, resource nationalism, green transition, developing countries |
| JEL: | Q31 Q32 Q38 F13 O13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12877 |
| By: | Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou; Juhász, Réka; Lane, Nathan; Lo Forte, Giulia; Thurk, Jeff |
| Abstract: | The resurgence of subsidies and industrial policies has raised concerns about their potential inefficiency and alignment with multilateral principles. Critics warn that such policies may divert resources to less efficient firms and provoke retaliatory measures from other countries, leading to a wasteful "subsidy race." However, subsidies for sectors with inherent cross-border externalities can have positive global effects. This paper examines these issues within the semiconductor industry: a key driver of economic growth and innovation with potentially significant learning-by-doing and strategic importance due to its dual-use applications. Our study aims to: (1) document and quantify recent industrial policies in the global semiconductor sector, (2) explore the rationale behind these policies, and (3) evaluate their economic impacts, particularly their cross-border effects, and compatibility with multilateral principles. We employ historical analysis, natural language processing, and a model-based approach to measure government support and its impacts. Our findings indicate that government support has been vital for the industry's growth, with subsidies being the primary form of support. They also highlight the importance of cross-border technology transfers through FDI, business and research collaborations, and technology licensing. China, despite significant subsidies, does not stand out as an outlier compared to other countries, given its market size. Preliminary model estimates indicate that while learning-by-doing exists, it is smaller than commonly believed, with significant international spillovers. These spillovers likely reflect cross-country technology transfers and the role of fabless clients in disseminating knowledge globally through their interactions with foundries. Such cross-border spillovers are not merely accidental but result from deliberate actions by market participants that cannot be taken for granted. Firms may choose to share knowledge across borders or restrict access to frontier technology, thereby excluding certain countries. Future research will use model estimates to simulate the quantitative implications of subsidies and to explore the dynamics of a "subsidy race" in the semiconductor industry. |
| Keywords: | Semiconductors; Subsidies; Multilateralism |
| JEL: | F13 F61 L63 N60 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19402 |
| By: | Haibo Wang; Lutfu Sua; Jaime Ortiz; Jun Huang; Bahram Alidaee |
| Abstract: | Design/methodology/approach A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is employed to quantify dynamic connectedness and directional volatility spillovers using daily data from May 1, 2013, to May 2, 2023. The study isolates the impact of extreme events by splitting the data into pre- and post-COVID-19 samples based on the February 2020 stock market crash. Purpose This paper examines the daily financial risk spillovers associated with investing in critical minerals. It examines the dynamic interconnectedness between seven critical mineral Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) portfolios and key economic-wide variables, including the energy market, carbon emissions, market sentiment, and global infrastructure. Findings Portfolios with high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores significantly contribute to shock spillovers. Net directional connectedness analysis reveals that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and carbon emission futures consistently act as "net receivers, " absorbing volatility from the system. Conversely, Cobalt and Aluminum ETFs primarily act as "net givers, " transmitting volatility. The pandemic caused significant structural shifts in these transmission roles. Practical implications The identification of specific net givers and receivers provides actionable insights for investors, facilitating better hedging strategies against time-varying structural breaks and broader economic shocks. Originality This study uniquely utilizes financial ETF data rather than physical mineral prices to capture accessible investment risks. It is among the first to link ESG scores to the directional role (giver vs. receiver) of critical mineral assets within a broader macro-financial network. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.27485 |
| By: | Haruka Nagamori; Kazuhiko Nishimura |
| Abstract: | Section 1502 of the Dodd--Frank Act, enacted in 2010, requires U.S.-listed companies using tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold (3TG) from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjoining countries to disclose information on the minerals' origins. Concerns have been raised that the regulation may have induced a de facto embargo through avoidance of sourcing from the covered region. However, how the price responsiveness of mineral exports evolved under changing institutional and market conditions remains insufficiently understood. Since tungsten production in the covered region is concentrated almost entirely in Rwanda, this study examines the price responsiveness of Rwandan tungsten exports from January 2009 to December 2023. Because missing export quantity data prevent continuous observation of export unit values, we apply the identification approach of Nakano and Nishimura (2025), combining monthly mirror trade data from UN Comtrade with exchange rates and a world average price. An importer fixed-effects model is estimated using export value as the dependent variable, with the sample divided into four periods according to changes in the institutional and market environment. The results reveal substantial temporal variation in price responsiveness. A statistically significant negative price response is observed in Period 1 ($\eta=-20.814$, $p 0.10$), reappears in Period 3 ($\eta=-5.277$, $p 0.10$). Coefficient-difference tests confirm significant changes between Periods 1 and 2 ($p=0.0021$) and between Periods 3 and 4 ($p=0.0006$). These findings suggest that the price responsiveness of Rwandan tungsten exports varied substantially over time rather than following a uniform trajectory after the regulation. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.08690 |
| By: | Wenkai Li (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan); Elyor Bakhtiyarovich |
| Abstract: | Shortly after beginning his second presidential term, U.S. President Donald Trump launched the most ambitious tariff campaign in nearly a century, widely referred to as the Trump 2.0 tariff regime, which has triggered subsequent retaliatory measures by major trading partners. The frequency of announcements, exemptions, suspensions, and legal substitutions generated unprecedented chaos and profound disruptions to global economy and global supply chains. This paper provides a structured review of the Trump 2.0 tariff regime and its implications for global supply chains. It synthesizes expert perspectives on the economic consequences of the tariffs and examines their impact on freight transportation, manufacturing, consumer spending, and firm-level strategic responses. The paper further reviews a range of supply chain adaptation strategies, including supply chain adaptation, tariff tipping-point analysis, strategic contract management, and circular economy practices. Seven general principles are proposed in responding to Trump tariff. To illustrate these strategic responses, two case studies are presented: (1) Hakkai Inc. of Japan and its experiences and strategies facing the tariff; and (2) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and the global semiconductor industry facing the tariffs. These cases demonstrate how firms and their supply chains have responded to an increasingly uncertain and politically driven trade environment. The findings provide practical insights for business owners, procurement professionals, supply chain managers, and corporate strategy teams seeking to enhance supply chain resilience under tariff-induced disruptions. The cases offer guidance for organizations developing strategies to compete in an increasingly fragmented global production system shaped by geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Trump Tariff, Reciprocal Tariffs, Supply Chain Risk, Tariff Tipping Point, Smart Contracts, Circular Economy |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_16 |
| By: | Depante, Lianne Angelico C.; Dedase, Kirsten Lianne Mae C. |
| Abstract: | Main argument: We argue that the contrasting fortunes of the Taiwan and Philippine semiconductor industries are best explained by the differences in how their respective states deployed industrial policies and institutions in shaping development outcomes, particularly across four key areas: public R&D institutions, industrial governance and strategy, industrial clustering and state-business-academia relations, and scientific and technical human capital policies. Policy landscape: Today, semiconductors are the leading exports for these two political economies. Both their industries started at a more or less similar footing, tracing their origins as assembly, testing, and packaging (ATP) hubs back to the late 1960s. Their paths have since diverged: Taiwan was able to build a fully integrated ecosystem that spans design, fabrication, and advanced packaging and testing, while the Philippines remains largely confined to low-value ATP with no domestic fabrication capacity to date. Methods: The study compares Taiwan and the Philippines as cases that shared a relatively similar starting point in labor-intensive ATP in the late 1960s but diverged in outcomes. We examine the policies and institutional arrangements each deployed, particularly during the critical period from the 1970s to the 1990s, when the foundations of their respective industries were laid. Findings: Taiwan's ascent to global leadership in semiconductor manufacturing was neither haphazard nor simply the outcome of unfettered market forces, but the result of industrial vision combined with strategic orchestration of public R&D (most notably ITRI), industrial clustering in the Hsinchu Science Park, and an educational system tailored to the industry's needs - a purposeful symbiosis of the state, academia, and industry that produced a self-reinforcing ecosystem conducive to industrial upgrading. The Philippines' experience, by contrast, underscores the consequences of fragmented governance, risk-averse public R&D, and an educational system insufficiently oriented towards industrial priorities. Policy recommendations: We propose that developing countries (1) rethink the mandate of public R&D institutions to allow calculated risk-taking and a tolerance for failure; (2) have the state co-invest with the private sector in capital-intensive, strategically important segments of the value chain, socializing not only the risks but also the rewards of public investment; (3) strengthen governance arrangements and expert advisory platforms to overcome information asymmetry and coordination failures; (4) place equal emphasis on building firms' absorptive capacities along with frontier R&D; (5) anchor human capital development explicitly in industrial strategy, including TVET reform and the mobilization of diaspora professionals through "brain circulation"; (6) pursue industrial clustering as a deliberate and coordinated strategy rather than a passive by-product of investment promotion; and (7) strategically leverage the evolving geopolitical landscape to extract developmental concessions, such as technology transfer. Conclusion: For the Philippines and similarly situated economies in the Global South, moving up the technological ladder will require a more proactive approach to industrial policy, institutional reconfiguration, and a fundamental rethinking of how development is understood and pursued. |
| Keywords: | semiconductor industry, Philippines, Taiwan, industrial policy, science and technology, industrial clustering, comparative perspective, public R&D, brain drain, brain circulation, Stanford Microsystems, Hsinchu Science Park, developmental state, comparative political economy, political economy of development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342849 |
| By: | Lee, Wonseok; Kim, Jaebeom; Brorsen, B. Wade |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how shocks in the natural gas and corn markets influence nitrogen fertilizer prices and how these relationships change after the 2005 and 2007 changes in biofuel policies. Using a block-recursive structural VAR framework, we decompose changes in fertilizer prices into structural shocks driven by supply, demand, and precautionary demand. The results show that fertilizer prices are influenced mainly by demand-side shocks, while supply shocks have only small effects on prices. After the structural break, corn demand shocks become more influential, indicating tighter linkages between corn and fertilizer markets. These findings imply that biofuel policies increased nitrogen fertilizer price volatility by strengthening the linkages between energy and agriculture, with fertilizer price movements driven primarily by demand-side shock |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea26:404832 |
| By: | Kollar, Justin |
| Abstract: | Beneath the dramatic expansion of AI computing and digital systems across the world, data centers and energy systems are being constructed within inherited land and property institutions. Because of this, the consequences of this buildout—including resource strain and environmental and health impacts—are unevenly distributed, particularly in rural areas like Appalachia long structured by concentrated land ownership and extractive power relations. Recent discourse has focused on the implications of AI and digital systems for governance, as well as the immense resource demands of computing infrastructure. This article seeks to link these concerns by examining the unequal power relations involved in the production of computing infrastructure, including “powered land, ” through which non-tech entities assemble land and entitlements as an asset for sale or rent to operators and AI labs. Within the historically extractive landscape of West Virginia, I examine the mechanisms of infrastructural enclosure that enable and sustain this asset against local resistance, including the passage of HB 2014 and HB 2002, which aim to remove local land-use authority, divert fiscal resources, and protect consequential information about proposed projects. A critical component of this process is asymmetric legibility, through which project details are made coherent for those within the development network but intentionally fragmented and obscured for affected communities. Infrastructural enclosure extends accumulation by dispossession beyond the appropriation of land and resources to encompass the historically aligned regimes that legitimize dispossession and erode democracy and collective place identity. |
| Date: | 2026–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xkhgc_v1 |
| By: | Schunk, Nathan; Baker, Justin; Cho, Chanheung; Ho, Thu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines fertilizer price dynamics within a global commodity market framework. Using a panel of 65 monthly commodity price series from 2000 to 2025, we document three empirical patterns: fertilizer prices exhibit event-driven volatility, price responses differ across nutrients, and fertilizer prices increasingly diverge from agricultural commodity prices during major shocks. To quantify these patterns, we estimate a dynamic factor model that decomposes fertilizer price movements into global, block-specific, and idiosyncratic components. The estimated global factor is closely associated with standard indicators of global economic activity, indicating that common macroeconomic conditions are reflected in fertilizer markets. However, the transmission of these shocks differs across nutrients. Nitrogen fertilizers are more closely linked to energy markets, phosphate fertilizers show larger idiosyncratic variation, and potash reflects both global and sectoral influences. These results suggest that fertilizer price dynamics reflect both common global forces and nutrient-specific factors. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404318 |
| By: | Bastos, Paulo; Stapleton, Katherine; Taglioni, Daria; Wei, Hannah Yi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of multinational firms and global value chain linkages in the cross-country diffusion of emerging technologies. The analysis combines detailed information on the near-universe of online job postings in 17 countries with data on multinational networks and firm-to-firm linkages from 2014 to 2022. Online job postings are utilized to investigate how jobs related to emerging technologies spread through firm networks. The findings show that emerging technology jobs are highly concentrated within multinational firms and their supply chains. Approximately one-third of all emerging technology job postings during this period come from Fortune 500 firms, their affiliates, buyers, suppliers, or innovation partners. Although the locations where these technologies originate exhibit a higher prevalence of technology job openings, this advantage diminishes over time as diffusion accelerates in wealthier and geographically closer countries and regions. The study highlights the significant role of firm-to-firm linkages in technology diffusion, with some linkages proving more influential than others. Firms that were previously buyers or innovation partners of establishments in technology-originating locations experienced faster growth in jobs related to these technologies. Moreover, relationships outside corporate boundaries play a particularly critical role, and these connections are influential beyond the factor of geographical distance. |
| JEL: | O33 F23 L14 O14 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19534 |
| By: | Peter Boswijk (University of Amsterdam); Cees Diks (University of Amsterdam); Simon Trimborn (University of Amsterdam); Matteo Valle (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to determine from market expectations how firms are affected by risks arising from environmental regulation. We use a text-based measure of environmental regulatory stringency derived from U.S. EPA legal documents and industry-level relevance scores to capture time-varying regulatory stringency exposure. We find that environmental regulatory stringency carries a positive and statistically significant return compensation, especially for firms with high cash holdings. For firms with low cash holdings, the effect is highly volatile, showing investors are uncertain about a firm's future when faced with stricter regulation. Firms’ environmental profiles further matter, as high-emission firms' returns are negatively affected when regulatory stringency increases. Because regulatory text is released infrequently, challenging real-time risk analysis, we utilise our studies insights to derive a high-frequency, market-expectation capturing Environmental Regulatory Risk Index (ERRI). We show that ERRI captures shifts in investors’ expectations of environmental regulatory stringency and how ERRI reacts during environmental policy and political developments. |
| Date: | 2026–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260044 |
| By: | Matthew T. Cole (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University); Michael P. McCullough (Agribusiness Department, California Polytechnic State University); Nathan H. Miller (Georgetown University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We study business-to-business price adjustment around the 2025 U.S. aluminum tariffs, using California wholesale beer filings that date each price change. Posted prices rise commensurate with the increase in the cost of aluminum cans. Adjustment is delayed, selective, and bundled: new filings surge four months after implementation without raising prices, and the increases arrive at six and seven months, in filings that reset long-unrevised prices and span more of the product line. Surges recur in other years, at other dates, without the selection or bundling. Frictions that contribute to price rigidity between firms operate even around salient, dated cost events. |
| Keywords: | price adjustment, menu costs, wholesale markets, posted prices, tariffs, beer |
| JEL: | E31 F13 L11 L13 L66 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:2602 |