|
on Mining |
| By: | Romain Capliez; Carl Grekou; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the historical determinants of real mineral commodity prices using a structurally identified vector autoregression (SVAR) with incomplete identification. Drawing on a large sample of mineral commodities covering more than a century of data, we identify supply, aggregate demand, and metal-specific demand shocks using economically motivated prior distributions. Historical decompositions show that price fluctuations are predominantly driven by demand-side forces, with metal-specific demand shocks accounting for the largest share of variation. Aggregate demand shocks also play an important role, particularly during periods of global instability, while the contribution of supply shocks is more limited and tends to decline over time. Elasticity estimates indicate that prices respond more strongly and more persistently to demand shocks than to supply shocks, whereas supply responses remain weak in the short run. We also document substantial heterogeneity across mineral commodities and over time, reflecting differences in adjustment mechanisms across markets. Overall, our findings highlight the central role of demand in mineral commodity price formation and provide little support for the view that increasing scarcity has been the dominant force shaping observed price dynamics over the period considered. Instead, fluctuations in mineral commodity prices appear to be primarily driven by demand-side factors rather than by tightening supply conditions. |
| Keywords: | Mineral Commodities;Commodity Price Dynamics;Resource Scarcity;Structural VAR;Historical Decomposition |
| JEL: | Q31 Q32 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-06 |
| By: | Yusuf, Alia; Utamawati, Herlina |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s downstream integration into global nickel supply chains has had significant economic benefits, strengthening the country’s position in the global energy transition and increasing the Government’s fiscal revenues. At the same time, nickel-producing regions face heightened exposure to climate-related and environmental risks, including flooding, ecosystem degradation and pollution. These dynamics make growing demands of subnational governments, which play a central role in disaster response and climate adaptation. Best practices from other commodity-driven economies offer some useful policy lessons for Indonesia, ranging from stakeholder coordination platforms to revenue stabilisation funds. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140368 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Mongolia has benefited from a multi-year mining boom, strong growth, and decreasing external and fiscal vulnerabilities. Yet the economy remains exposed to commodity price shocks. Lower coal prices since early 2025 have already led to revenue shortfalls, and political pressures to raise expenditure are intense. The fiscal position is projected to deteriorate, given large public wage and pension increases, and non-mining tax cuts, reversing recent gains in reducing vulnerabilities. Political uncertainty and risks of policy slippages will likely increase ahead of the 2027–28 presidential and parliamentary elections. |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/219 |
| By: | Kilian, Lena; Owen, Anne; Hoekstra, Rutger |
| Abstract: | The UK’s Multi-Regional Input-Output database (UKMRIO) is used to calculate the UK’s material footprint as well as a number of other environmental and economic indicators. The UKMRIO is constructed from National Accounts data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics, as well as from international trade data from a global Multi-Regional Input-Output (GMRIO) databases. As research on the UK’s carbon and greenhouse gas footprints has recommended switching the GMRIO input data from FIGARO to EXIOBASE, this research aims to understand the impacts of this switch on the material footprint. This analysis is particularly timely and necessary, as these databases have very different levels of disaggregation of the mining and quarrying sector – a key sector for the material footprint. While EXIOBASE subdivides this into 14 distinct sectors, FIGARO contains only a single mining and quarrying sector. The UK National Accounts, which make up the UK’s economic data in the UKMRIO, on the other hand contain 4 sectors for mining and quarrying. To assess the impact of this switch, this report undertakes two analyses. First, we aim to understand the impact of aggregating mining on the material footprint by calculating the UK’s consumption-based material footprint from EXIOBASE with mining and quarrying disaggregated to 1, 4, and 14 sectors. Second, we assess the impact of using FIGARO data in the UKMRIO on the UK’s material footprint and provide recommendations for method improvements. Our findings show that while 4 mining sectors provide a good approximation of 14 mining sectors, having only a single mining sector overestimates the UK’s material footprint. We therefore provide a new method which uses EXIOBASE proportions to disaggregate FIGARO’s single mining sector into 4 distinct sectors. Using the disaggregated version of the FIGARO dataset provides a practical solution to improve both the material and the carbon footprints. |
| Keywords: | Multi-regional input-output analysis; environmental accounting; materials footprint; carbon footprint |
| JEL: | Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoet:escoe-tr-30 |
| By: | Boone, Catherine; Mugisha, Michael Buteera |
| Abstract: | Even after economic liberalization in the 1990s, the role of the state in Africa’s traditional tropical commodity export sectors has remained extensive. This paper argues that post-liberalization, these patterns of state regulation have often been shaped by the pressures and incentives of partisan politics, just as they were in earlier decades. We compare and contrast the changing institutional structure and patterns of state regulation in four agricultural commodity export sectors: Côte d'Ivoire-cocoa, Ghana-cocoa, Kenya-coffee, and Uganda-coffee. In spite of important differences, all four sectors are critical in providing resources, organizational structure, and policy mechanisms for building and maintaining electoral and other forms of political support for historically powerful political parties and/or power contenders. Post-1990s, each of the four cases presents an alternative pattern of alignment between export-sector organizations and partisan politics. Comparison across cases reveals the depth and variety of the ways in which domestic politics in African countries, including electoral politics, can shape state intervention in commodity chains for agro-exports, even in the neoliberal era. One implication for development studies is that domestic political and partisan dynamics are likely to continue to influence how governments use their “policy space” in supply chain governance in the future. |
| Keywords: | Africa;party politics;export commodites;Kenya;Uganda;Cote d'Ivoire |
| JEL: | N0 L81 |
| Date: | 2026–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140307 |
| By: | Roselyne Jeanne-Brou (CASHVOLT); Cédric Carles (REGENBOX); Stéphane Casse (REWATT); Olivier Huzard (JOULE EN VRAC); Maxime Bleskine (VOLTR); Louis Mettery (SEENSYS); Aurélien Aberbache (MEDIACLINIC); Christophe Deboffe (NEO-ECO); Christophe Bondu (IWIP); Diana de Bernardy (GS1); Seydina Diedhiou (BRING BACK); Gwenaël Kervajan (RE-LION FACTORY); Nadjib Renaï (RCUBE LA FÉDÉRATION DU RÉEMPLOI ET DE LA RÉPARATION); Marion Monnier (RCUBE LA FÉDÉRATION DU RÉEMPLOI ET DE LA RÉPARATION); Benoit Varin (RCUBE LA FÉDÉRATION DU RÉEMPLOI ET DE LA RÉPARATION) |
| Abstract: | The battery market is growing rapidly, driven by the electrification of uses, light mobility, consumer electronics, energy storage and electric vehicles. This growth is creating a strong strategic dependence on imports, critical raw materials and value chains that remain largely dominated by Asia. In this context, battery reuse is becoming a concrete lever for industrial sovereignty, decarbonisation and local value creation. The Battery White Paper shows that many sources of value remain underexploited: smartphones, electric bicycles, power tools, stationary storage, lead-acid batteries and professional equipment. However, the development of this sector is still held back by a lack of trust, standardisation and reliable evidence regarding the actual condition of batteries. Without diagnostics, traceability and shared reference frameworks, it is difficult to secure reuse, reassure users and scale up industrial practices. The White Paper therefore provides a structured analysis of the technical, economic, environmental and regulatory challenges related to the second life of batteries. It also underlines that reuse and recycling are not opposed to one another: better diagnosing and better directing batteries can also improve the quality of flows sent to recycling. The report also documents the environmental benefits of reconditioning, with significant reductions in carbon footprint compared with new batteries. This collective work brings together field operators, industrial players, repairers, reconditioners, recyclers, trainers, experts and organisations committed to the circular economy. It therefore constitutes a reference framework for public authorities, local governments, companies, the media and stakeholders across the sector. Citing this White Paper means recognising the emergence of a French battery reuse sector and helping to make its needs visible: diagnostics, safety, traceability, access to battery streams, training and a clear regulatory framework. It also means supporting a responsible approach: repairing, regenerating, reconditioning or reusing batteries whenever relevant, before directing them towards recycling. Recommended citation: Jeanne-Brou, R. et al. (2026). Réemployer les batteries en France : vers une industrialisation responsable. Impacts économiques, sociétaux et environnementaux d'une filière stratégique pour l'industrie française. RCube. ISBN: 978-2-322-63904-5. |
| Abstract: | Le marché des batteries connaît une croissance rapide, portée par l'électrification des usages, la mobilité légère, l'électronique, le stockage et les véhicules électriques. Cette croissance crée une dépendance stratégique forte aux importations, aux matières premières critiques et à des chaînes de valeur largement dominées par l'Asie. Dans ce contexte, le réemploi des batteries devient un levier concret de souveraineté industrielle, de décarbonation et de création de valeur locale. Le Livre Blanc Batterie montre que de nombreux gisements restent sous-exploités : smartphones, vélos électriques, outillage, stockage stationnaire, batteries plomb-acide ou équipements professionnels. Pourtant, le développement de cette filière reste freiné par un manque de confiance, de standardisation et de preuves fiables sur l'état réel des batteries. Sans diagnostic, sans traçabilité et sans référentiel commun, il est difficile de sécuriser le réemploi, de rassurer les utilisateurs et d'industrialiser les pratiques. Le Livre Blanc propose donc une lecture structurée des enjeux techniques, économiques, environnementaux et réglementaires de la seconde vie des batteries. Il rappelle que réemploi et recyclage ne s'opposent pas : mieux diagnostiquer et mieux orienter les batteries permet aussi d'améliorer la qualité des flux vers le recyclage. Il documente également les bénéfices environnementaux du reconditionnement, avec des réductions d'empreinte carbone significatives par rapport à une batterie neuve. Ce travail collectif réunit des acteurs du terrain, industriels, réparateurs, reconditionneurs, recycleurs, formateurs, experts et structures engagées dans l'économie circulaire. Il constitue ainsi un socle de référence pour les pouvoirs publics, les collectivités, les entreprises, les médias et les acteurs de la filière. Citer ce Livre Blanc, c'est reconnaître l'existence d'une filière française en structuration et contribuer à rendre visibles ses besoins : diagnostic, sécurité, traçabilité, accès au gisement, formation et cadre réglementaire. C'est aussi soutenir une approche responsable : réparer, régénérer, reconditionner ou réemployer lorsque cela est pertinent, avant d'orienter vers le recyclage. Référence recommandée : Jeanne-Brou, R. et al. (2026). Réemployer les batteries en France : vers une industrialisation responsable. Impacts économiques, sociétaux et environnementaux d'une filière stratégique pour l'industrie française. RCube. ISBN : 978-2-322-63904-5. |
| Keywords: | Reuse, Batterie, Economy, Climate resilience, Investment, Ecology, Réemploi, Ecologie, Investissement, Résilience Climatique, Economie |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05682584 |
| By: | Arezki, Rabah; Camara, Youssouf; van der Ploeg, Frederick; Rota-Graziosi, Grégoire |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether foreign aid is self-interested, exploiting the timing and size of major mineral discoveries. We first analyze the effect a resource discovery in a two-by-two donor-recipient model with conflict about natural resources, using a contest success function. We then estimate the effects of major discoveries using a gravity model for a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Results show that recipient countries that experience major discoveries receive more, not less, bilateral aid, all else equal. Our benchmark result is that following a mineral discovery, a recipient country receives 36% more aid compared to a country without such a discovery. That is a paradox considering that major discoveries are associated with an effective relaxation of international borrowing constraints. |
| JEL: | E00 F3 O1 O2 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19614 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Zimbabwe has continued to consolidate stabilization gains under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) despite external shocks. Growth strengthened in 2025 and momentum continued in 2026, supported by mining, still-elevated gold prices, and a strong agricultural rebound. Inflation has remained low, the exchange rate broadly stable, and the current account robust, providing a window to strengthen macroeconomic management, rebuild buffers, and advance reengagement toward arrears clearance and debt resolution. |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/223 |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris; Wandschneider, Kirsten |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. |
| JEL: | F14 F33 F42 N10 N70 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19839 |
| By: | Stefano Bolatto (University of Bologna); Filippo Santi (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan); Maria Tremuli (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | International trade in waste and scrap has expanded rapidly, yet it remains underexplored in quantitative trade economics. This paper analyzes the determinants of waste flows across five major material categories (plastics, paper, glass, iron & steel, aluminum) using a gravity model enriched with bilateral tariff and non-tariff measures. Leveraging HS6 bilateral customs data for 2001–2022, we compare trade elasticities between waste and non-waste products within the same HS2 sectors to assess whether differences in trade patterns are material-specific. The results are robust to dynamic lead-lag specifications assessing systematic anticipation, and to heterogeneity analyses by income level. They are consistent with three distinct archetypes: information sensitive materials (plastics, aluminum), where technical NTMs display a pattern suggestive of certification mechanisms; complementarity-driven materials (paper), which exhibit inverted tariff elasticities reflecting technological lock-in in specialized recycling infrastructure; and commodity-like materials (glass, iron/steel), where trade responds conventionally to policy and geographic frictions. Our findings point to the value of tailoring trade and circular-economy measures to material characteristics, given the systematic differences observed across archetypes. |
| Keywords: | International trade, waste and scrap, gravity model, tariff and non-tariff barriers, circular economy, trade and environmental policy |
| JEL: | F Q |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2026.05 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth; Kumar, Parth |
| Abstract: | Few industrial materials are as crucial to the low-carbon transition in India as aluminium, which is essential in the manufacture of solar panels, and electric vehicle battery housings and transmission cables. But producing primary aluminium creates emissions of around 18–24 tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (tCO₂e) in India, making it one of the most emission-intensive industrial processes in the world. The Indian Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) aims to support the country’s climate commitments with a focus on decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors, including aluminium. This policy brief explores the reasons for the high emissions intensity of Indian aluminium, and the role of the CCTS in decarbonising the sector. It makes recommendations for ensuring that the CCTS delivers meaningful decarbonisation. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140335 |
| By: | Gerards Iglesias, Simon; Reeves, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Vor dem Hintergrund der globalen geoökonomischen Fragmentierung und der geopolitischen Unordnung, insbesondere durch die Politik unter US-Präsident Donald Trump, gewinnt ein Freihandelsabkommen (FTA) zwischen der Europäischen Union (EU) und dem Golf-Kooperationsrat (GCC) an strategischer Bedeutung. Die sechs GCC-Mitgliedsstaaten - Saudi-Arabien, die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE), Katar, der Oman, Bahrain und Kuwait - setzen zunehmend auf regionale und internationale Konnektivität sowie den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien, um alternative Geschäftsmodelle zum Export fossiler Brennstoffe aufzubauen. Nach Ausbruch des Ukraine-Krieges gewann das Potenzial der Golfstaaten als verlässlicher, energiereicher Stabilitätsanker in geografischer Nähe zunächst an Bedeutung und führte zu einem verstärkten Engagement Berlins und Brüssels am Golf. Der jüngste amerikanisch-israelische Krieg gegen den Iran stellt jedoch einen Stresstest für diese wichtigen ökonomischen Grundpfeiler der Partnerschaft zwischen Europa und den Golfstaaten dar: der Warenverkehr durch die Straße von Hormus, das Haupttor der fossilen Exporte aus der Arabischen Halbinsel, ist blockiert, während iranische Angriffe gegen zivile Ziele das Image des GCC als sicherer Hafen für internationale Geschäfte und Logistik in Frage stellt. Nichtdestotrotz argumentiert der vorliegende Report für eine Vertiefung der wirtschaftlichen Partnerschaft zwischen der EU und dem GCC. Gerade in der gegenwärtigen volatilen geopolitischen Lage würde ein umfassendes Freihandelsabkommen mit regulatorischer Harmonisierung, gezielter Investitionsförderung sowie einer Kooperation bei nachhaltigen Energien und Wertschöpfungsketten für die EU große Vorteile verschaffen. Am Beispiel des bestehenden Freihandelsabkommens der Golfstaaten mit den EFTA-Ländern (Norwegen, Schweiz, Island, Liechtenstein) zeigt dieser Beitrag, dass die EU nicht nur gegenüber Wirtschaftsmächten wie China Handelsanteile am Golf verloren hat. Die EFTA-Exporte in den GCC wuchsen nach Abschluss des Freihandelsabkommens um rund 45 Prozent stärker als die der EU. Auch auf der Importseite zeigt sich eine deutlich stärkere Verflechtung der EFTA mit den Golfstaaten. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen, dass das Abkommen nicht nur den EFTA-Staaten ermöglicht, eine stärkere Exportdynamik zu entfalten, sondern auch die Ausweitung der Importe vorantreibt, insbesondere in rohstoffnahen und vorleistungsintensiven Bereichen. Gleichzeitig verdeutlichen die Auswirkungen des EFTA-Abkommens, dass für die EU ein rein zollfokussiertes Abkommen begrenzte ökonomische Vorteile auf der Exportseite verspricht. Nur ein zukunftsorientierter Rahmen, der über klassische Handelsfragen hinausgeht, kann das volle strategische Potenzial der Partnerschaft in einem geopolitisch aufgeladenen Umfeld erschließen. |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of global geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitical disorder, particularly driven by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council is gaining strategic importance. The six GCC member states - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait - are increasingly prioritizing regional and international connectivity, as well as the expansion of renewable energy in order to develop alternative business models beyond the export of fossil fuels. Following the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Gulf states' potential as reliable, energy-rich anchors of stability in Europe's immediate neighborhood gained greater significance, prompting stronger engagement by Berlin and Brussels in the Gulf region. However, the recent U.S.-Israeli war against Iran represents a stress test for these key economic pillars underpinning the partnership between Europe and the Gulf states: trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the main maritime gateway to the Arabian Peninsula, have been disrupted, while Iranian attacks on civilian targets have called into question the GCC's image as a safe haven for international business and financial flows. Nevertheless, this report argues in favor of deepening the economic partnership between the EU and the GCC. Especially in the current volatile geopolitical environment, a comprehensive free trade agreement featuring regulatory harmonization, targeted investment promotion, and close cooperation on sustainable energy and industrial development would offer substantial benefits for the EU. Using the Gulf states' existing free trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association countries - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein - as a case study, this paper shows that the EU has lost market shares to competitors benefiting from trade agreements. EFTA exports to the GCC grew by around 45 percent more than EU exports following the conclusion of the agreement. On the import side as well, EFTA countries exhibit significantly stronger integration with the Gulf region. These findings suggest that the agreement has not only enabled EFTA states to generate stronger export growth, but has also stimulated import expansion, particularly in resource-related and intermediate goodsintensive sectors. At the same time, the effects of the EFTA FTA demonstrate that a purely tariff-focused agreement would offer only limited economic benefits for Brussels. Only a forward-looking framework that extends beyond traditional trade issues can unlock the full strategic potential of the partnership in an increasingly geopolitically charged environment. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N45 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:342417 |
| By: | Ferrari, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | I study the role of industries’ position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination exposure accounting for direct and indirect linkages. I find that demand shocks amplify significantly as they propagate upstream, with upstream industries experiencing output elasticities up to three times larger than final good producers, consistent with the bullwhip effect. To rationalize these empirical results, I develop a tractable production network model with inventories and study how the properties of the network and the cyclicality of inventories interact to determine whether final demand shocks amplify or dissipate upstream. I test the mechanism by directly estimating the model-implied relationship between output growth and demand shocks, mediated by network position and inventories. I find that the presence of inventories increases output elasticities by 18% on average, highlighting the macroeconomic significance of this channel. Finally, I use the model to quantitatively study the effects of long-run trends of lengthening supply chains and rising inventories on the volatility of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Production networks; Supply chains; Inventories; Bullwhip Effect; Shock amplification |
| JEL: | C67 E23 E32 F14 F44 L14 L16 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19716 |
| By: | Harrison, Ann |
| Abstract: | History is full of examples of successful and unsuccessful industrial policies. The critical question is not whether to engage in such policies but how they are designed and implemented. Industrial policy can work, but only with strict adherence to sensible guidelines based on sound economic practice, political economy considerations, and historical context. Reviewing previous research and focusing on evidence drawn from China and India, I argue that any successful industrial policy requires the following: (1) a successful plan to correct a market failure; (2) consultation with the private sector; (3) enhancement of competition; and (4) a sunset clause permitting the policy to conclude. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; Strategic trade and industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19693 |
| By: | Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline; Michel Moreaux |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal use of energy from carbon emissions in an economy drawing useful energy from coal, a standard renewable, and methanol synthesised by combining captured CO2 with an otherwise inexploitable non-standard renewable, subject to a ceiling on atmospheric carbon. Captured CO2 carries a dual shadow value - atmospheric relief and productive feedstock - and we show that a credible ceiling is necessary and sufficient to activate the non-standard renewable: the ceiling, not any output subsidy, prices the feedstock that makes synthesis competitive. The optimal sequence departs from least-cost-first ordering, with coal and methanol used concurrently, and the pre-ceiling energy price may follow a U-shaped path driven by a rising shadow value rather than falling costs. A uniform Pigouvian carbon tax does not decentralise the optimum; a supplementary storage subsidy is required, and the net capture instrument is a subsidy or tax according to whether emission reduction dominates the coal rebound. |
| Keywords: | global warming, carbon capture and use, synthetic fuels, non-renewable resources, renewable resources |
| JEL: | Q30 Q35 Q42 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12860 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Kwon, Hyuk-soo; Li, Shanjun; Zahur, Nahim Bin |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicle (EV) battery costs have declined by more than 90% over the past decade. This study investigates the role of learning-by-doing (LBD) in driving this reduction and its interaction with two major government policies – consumer EV subsidies and local content requirements. Leveraging rich data on EV models and battery suppliers, we develop and estimate a structural model of the global EV industry that incorporates heterogeneous consumer choices and strategic pricing behaviors of EV producers and battery suppliers. The model allows us to recover battery costs for each EV model and quantify the extent of LBD in battery production. The learning rate is estimated to be 7.5% during our sample period after controlling for industry technological progress, economies of scale, input costs, and EV assembly experience. LBD magnifies the effectiveness of consumer EV subsidies and drives cross-country spillovers from these subsidies. Upstream battery suppliers capture only a minor share of LBD’s economic benefits, and consumer EV subsidies correct for the under-provision of learning and improve social welfare. China’s local content requirement helps domestic suppliers gain a competitive advantage at the cost of consumers and foreign suppliers but would have harmed domestic welfare if delayed by five years. |
| Keywords: | Learning-by-doing |
| JEL: | F13 L52 L62 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19852 |
| By: | Gilles A Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | The Formula One championship, with its succession of Grands Prix, provides a compelling case study of the interplay between sporting performance and global logistics, revealing an ecosystem in which even minor delays or disruptions in the supply chain can impact competition outcomes, safety, and the reputation of car manufacturers. Examining material flows and pre-positioning hubs underscores the operational complexity of a championship where air, sea, and road transport are carefully coordinated to ensure the timely availability and reliability of equipment across five continents. Logistics transcends mere material movement, functioning as a strategic lever for performance, resilience, and sustainability by integrating alternative fuels, multimodal transport, and real-time digital tracking technologies. The Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA) positions the supply chain as a central instrument for coordination, operational optimization, and carbon footprint reduction, reconciling continuity with environmental responsibility. By combining insights from sport, hospitality, and logistics, this article offers an original framework for understanding how high-intensity events manage tensions, uncertainties, and extreme operational constraints. |
| Keywords: | Formula One, Global logistics, Hub, Motorsports, Supply chain, Sustainability, Transport management |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05687162 |
| By: | Federle, Jonathan; Rohner, Dominic; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | The impact of economic resources on the outcomes of military conflicts is heatedly debated—yet causal empirical evidence is lacking. To address this gap, the current paper asks whether “deeper pockets†help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal effect of financial windfalls on winning chances in interstate conflicts. We find a statistically significant and quantitatively large impact of windfalls on winning odds and show that a key channel of transmission is a surge in military spending. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 N40 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19841 |
| By: | Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University); Sabatini, Fabio (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | We study the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, combining a verified event-level strike record with quality-screened daily satellite radiance from NASA Black Marble. The analysis covers 29 large Russian refineries, 22 of which sustain verified direct hits over June 2022-May 2026. Using a monthly staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that nighttime radiance falls immediately and persistently after a refinery enters the strike campaign: by roughly 30 percent in the innermost measured ring and by 15-18 percent within five kilometers, with the effect attenuating until it becomes small at twenty-five kilometers. A complementary daily instrumental-variables design uses directional wind alignment to shift strike incidence and trace the strike-day dynamic. Radiance rises at short horizons, consistent with a fire-related light signature corroborated by NASA FIRMS detections, and turns negative at a six-month horizon, with weak-instrument-robust inference. Applying the same satellite product and empirical specification to 106 non-refinery deep-strike targets produces no comparable contraction, weighing against a generic-war-disruption interpretation. |
| Keywords: | conflict economics, industrial destruction, drone warfare, nighttime lights, staggered difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 L71 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18772 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Palmou, Christina; Schneebacher, Jakob |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, fi rms pa ss on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock; firm dynamics; climate change; high-dimensional analysis |
| JEL: | D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2024-15 |
| By: | Paolo Crosetto (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Antonio Filippin (UNIMI - Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milano) |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05687910 |
| By: | Koch, Dennis Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Corporate finance increasingly operates in a world shaped by sustainability imperatives, political polarization, and external governance pressures. Yet, the interaction between these forces and firm financial outcomes remains insufficiently understood. This dissertation investigates these interactions in four empirical studies linking corporate finance with political preferences, corporate sustainability, and governance shocks. The first study examines activism by hedge fund investors as an external governance intervention and investigates its interplay with target firms’ environmental and social performance (ESP). We hypothesize that these investors are value-driven and show that they remain largely indifferent to firms’ ESP when selecting targets. However, hedge fund engagements slow firms’ sustainability trajectories through managerial attention shifts and financial constraints. This study highlights the adverse stakeholder consequences of an influential investor group. The second study analyzes the 2024 U.S. presidential election as a policy shock and explores how investors revalue firms based on their exposure to green business models. We document that firms with higher green revenue share experienced negative stock price reactions. This negative effect is considerably stronger for firms in Democratic-leaning states than those in Republican-leaning states, implying that markets anticipate a non-uniform policy impact under the new administration. This study illustrates the policy risk of green firms under political polarization. The third study also centers on the U.S. election and explores how CEO political donations influence their companies’ post-election stock price movements. We find that CEO personal alignment with the winning Republican party leads to significant post-election stock price gains, while support for the Democratic party is associated with value losses. This study emphasizes investors’ heightened sensitivity to executive political loyalty in a highly polarized environment. The fourth study investigates how CEO political preferences shape equity pricing over the long run. Firms led by Republican-leaning CEOs exhibit significantly higher expected returns, explained by reduced investor attention and valuation. This study reveals that managerial political preferences persistently affect market perception and asset pricing. Taken together, this research reveals how political preferences, sustainability commitments, and governance shocks jointly shape corporate outcomes. This dissertation contributes to the literatures on corporate finance, political economy, and sustainability while offering relevant implications for executives, investors, and policymakers facing rising political and environmental uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2026–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:160877 |
| By: | Ayhan, Sinem (Middle East Technical University); Lehmann, Hartmut (New Uzbekistan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the labor-market costs of job displacement among coal miners in Turkey, a middle-income country where coal phase-out has not yet begun but may become increasingly relevant under decarbonization pressures. Using linked employer–employee administrative data, we identify displaced workers through mass layoffs and estimate event-study models with propensity score matching. We document large and persistent earnings losses. Among workers returning to registered employment, real monthly earnings fall by about 25 percent immediately after displacement and daily wages decline by 11–14 percent. Workers returning to coal experience virtually no persistent wage penalty, whereas those switching to non-coal sectors face lasting daily-wage losses of about 18 percent. Losses are largest for core underground miners, longer-tenured workers, and workers with longer non-employment spells. Over five years, the present discounted value of earnings losses equals roughly one year of pre-displacement earnings. Although the aggregate burden appears manageable at the national level, it is highly concentrated in coal-dependent regions, underscoring the importance of place-based just-transition policies. |
| Keywords: | coal phase-out, job displacement, just transition, wage losses, employment |
| JEL: | J63 J65 Q54 Q58 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18813 |
| By: | Motta, Massimo; Polo, Michele |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the design of industrial policies, in the form of subsidies to innovation activity or to local production, when domestic firms are inefficient and there is a risk of supply-chain disruption. We first establish a case for research subsidies, since private investment (to improve the inferior technology) is lower than the socially optimal one. We next show the equivalence with subsidies to (inefficient) local production in case of intertemporal economies of scale. Then, within a general framework, we analyze profit and welfare maximizing investments and optimal subsidies in case of segmented markets and an integrated market organized as a duopoly, a monopoly or a research joint-venture. We show that research joint ventures or a public research center socially outperform the other environments since they benefit from a larger integrated market and a wider circulation of the innovation while preserving a competitive market. Finally, in large markets with significant technology gaps, it may be convenient to concentrate all the research in a single lab while maintaining a competitive market. |
| Keywords: | Resilience; Industrial policy; Mergers; Innovation |
| JEL: | L40 L52 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19699 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Zahur, Nahim Bin |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has been used throughout history in some form or other by most countries. Yet, it remains one of the most contentious issues among policymakers and economists alike. In part, this is because the empirical evidence on whether and how it should be implemented remains slim. Scant data on government subsidies, conflicting theoretical arguments, and the need to account for governments’ short and long-run objectives, render research particularly challenging. In this article, we outline a theory-based empirical methodology that relies on estimating an industry equilibrium model to measure hidden subsidies, assess their welfare consequences for the domestic and global economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of different policy designs. We illustrate this approach using the global shipbuilding industry as a prototypical example of an industry targeted by industrial policy, especially in periods of heavy industrialization. Just in the past century, Europe, followed by Japan, then South Korea, and more recently China, developed national shipbuilding programs to propel their firms to global leaders. Success has been mixed across programs, certainly by welfare metrics, and sometimes even by growth metrics. We use our methodology on China to dissect the impact of such programs, what made them more or less successful, and how we can justify why governments have chosen shipbuilding as a target. |
| Keywords: | Shipbuilding |
| JEL: | L5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19557 |
| By: | Becker, Torbjörn; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weder di Mauro, Beatrice |
| Abstract: | The anticipation of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction has led to an avalanche of academic and policy analyses on how to rebuild the country. To help the profession navigate this rapidly expanding literature, this paper provides a synthesis and critical overview of the proposals. After describing historical context, damages inflicted by Russian aggression, and funds required for Ukraine’s recovery, the paper summarizes principles, phases and policies needed to deeply modernize the country. The reconstruction of Ukraine should provide a template for other recovery programs. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine; Foreign aid |
| JEL: | F5 O2 O52 P2 P3 H84 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19555 |
| By: | Mr. Francesco Grigoli |
| Abstract: | I study how the production network shapes monetary policy transmission to prices. Using U.S. data, I show that industries farther upstream from final demand exhibit larger cumulative price responses to monetary shocks, while downstream industries absorb shocks through output. A calibrated multi-sector New Keynesian model rationalizes these patterns: upstream sectors, which sell predominantly to other firms, reprice more frequently and therefore exhibit less price rigidity. A counterfactual decomposition of the price response shows that this heterogeneity in price rigidity---rather than cost-cascade propagation through input-output linkages---is the primary driver of the cross-sectional responses. The upstreamness differential is strongly asymmetric, large following expansionary shocks but nearly absent following contractionary ones, consistent with asymmetric price rigidity compounding across production stages. Together, these findings suggest that monetary policy's potency depends on the production network's architecture. |
| Keywords: | production networks; price rigidity; monetary policy transmission; input-output linkages; asymmetric price adjustment |
| Date: | 2026–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/127 |