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on Mining |
| By: | Kalantzakos, Sophia |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138552 |
| By: | Bosker, Maarten; Van Den Herik, Else-Marie; Pelzl, Paul; Poelhekke, Steven |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of developing countries are restricting non-renewable natural resource exports to encourage domestic processing, move up the global value chain, and spur local development. This paper studies the local labor-market effects of Indonesia’s voluntary export ban on unprocessed nickel and bauxite in 2014, previously a major source of export revenue. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of the ban, opening of new processing facilities, and the location of Indonesia's mineral deposits, we find that — after an initial dip — major investments in nickel processing increased employment in nickel mining districts. New smelters drove structural change, shifting jobs from agriculture to mining and manufacturing. In sharp contrast, the ban only led to very limited investment in bauxite processing, causing bauxite production and local employment to fall. We also find that nickel processing raised mining employment in Indonesia's coal districts, which provide the main source of energy for nickel processing. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; Export restrictions; critical minerals; Local development; Global value chains |
| JEL: | O52 O24 F16 F18 Q3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20791 |
| By: | Viet Nguyen-Tien |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of input uncertainty about critical minerals on firm performance, separating the second-moment risk channel from first-moment mineral sentiment and from general firm-level uncertainty. Using earnings-call transcripts matched to financial data for more than 14, 000 publicly listed firms in 92 countries (2010-2022), we construct text-based measures of perceived critical-mineral risk. Higher perceived risk is robustly associated with lower revenue growth among downstream non-mining firms, consistent with risk-averse firms contracting output under input uncertainty. A one-standard-deviation increase in mineral risk is associated with 0.71 percentage points lower revenue growth for the average non-mining firm, rising to roughly 1.9 percentage points for smaller firms, and is concentrated in thinly traded minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) rather than deeply traded ones (copper, nickel). Firms discuss hedging an stockpiling in response to price volatility rather than price levels, revealing the risk aversion that underlies the output contraction. These findings highlight a new uncertainty channel in the green transition relevant to strategic stockpiling and price transparency. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, green transition, risk, exposure, sentiment, stockpiling, hedging |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2197 |
| By: | Alvarez, Jorge; Benatiya Andaloussi, Mehdi; Maggi, Chiara; Sollaci, Alexandre; Stuermer, Martin; Topalova, Petia |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the economic impact of commodity trade fragmentation. Using a novel production and trade dataset of 48 key commodities, we develop a partial equilibrium framework to identify the most vulnerable commodities to trade disruptions and assess the ensuing economic risks. Trade fragmentation can cause large price changes for many commodities, with minerals critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodities being the most vulnerable. The economic relevance of commodity trade fragmentation, measured by changes in consumer and producer surplus, varies across countries. However, offsetting effects across commodity exporting and importing countries, imply modest global surplus losses. |
| Keywords: | Commodities |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F14 F15 F17 F41 F42 F43 Q17 Q27 Q37 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20451 |
| By: | Kym Anderson |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector’s share of GDP in growing economies typically declines but, for a century from the early 1850s, Australia’s did not. That trend is most evident for the former colony and now State of South Australia (SA). Moreover, that share for SA has been almost flat since 1980 as well, along with the agricultural sector’s share of SA exports. This paper seeks to shed light on the forces behind the unusual evolution of these sectoral shares for SA both up to 1950 and since 1980. The extensive time series data compiled for this paper suggest various partial explanations. For 1850-1950 they include the huge arable land area per worker, clearly defined and enforced property rights in settled rural areas as the frontier of European settlement expanded, the absence of a need to do any processing of the main 19th century exports (copper, wool and wheat), a strong public agricultural research and extension system, and the absence of major mining booms after the copper finds in the 1840s and 1860s. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, agricultural development, sectoral productivity growth, trade costs, mining booms, manufacturing protection |
| JEL: | F13 F63 N47 O13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2026-02 |
| By: | Malliaropulos, Dimitris; Passari, Evgenia; Petroulakis, Filippos |
| Abstract: | We show that text-based indicators of supply and demand disturbances in commodity markets provide distinct information about future inflation movements relative to existing predictors, inflation expectations and survey forecasts. Specifically, we document that demand-side disturbances play a significantly larger role in prediction because they typically lead to uniform increases in quantities and prices of goods across the consumer basket, resulting in a clear and positive relationship between commodity prices and overall inflation. Supply-side disturbances matter in particular circumstances, for instance during the recent period of the pandemic and geopolitical shocks. In terms of magnitudes, the commodity-specific indicators reduce out-of-sample inflation forecast errors by up to 30 percent. We finally apply our indexes to the inflation decomposition framework of Blanchard and Bernanke (2023) and corroborate their finding that the bulk of pandemic-era inflation can be attributed to commodity supply disruptions, resulting in price increases in goods markets. |
| JEL: | C19 E31 E37 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20404 |
| By: | Nassiri, Somayeh; Zarei, Ali; Roy, Souvik; Haider, Md Mostofa |
| Abstract: | Samples from various material groups including biomass ashes, biochars, natural pozzolans, and construction and demolition waste (C&DW) were evaluated as supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) for concrete. C&DW included rock dust (baghouse fines) from asphalt plants, rock dust from aggregate quarries, recycled concrete aggregate fines, crushed concrete aggregate fines, and concrete wash pond sludge. Characterization covered chemical and physical properties. Cementitious reactivity (pozzolanic or latent hydraulic) was measured based on ASTM C1897. Materials identified as pozzolanic reactive with equivalent total alkalis >5% or equivalent available alkalis >1.5% were further assessed for alkali-silica reactivity (ASR) by ASTM C1567 using a standard mortar with highly reactive sand and 20% cement replacement by each SCM. For SCMs that mitigated ASR expansion but did not meet Caltrans’s 0.1% limit, testing was repeated at replacement levels >20% when possible. A multicriteria approach was used to choose the materials to advance to the concrete-phase evaluation. Criteria were 7-day and 28-day strength activity index (SAI) >80% or 90-day SAI >80%, calorimetry heat release >90 J/g SCM, calcium hydroxide consumption >50 g/100 g SCM, water requirement 0.40 mL air-entraining admixture demand, and ASR performance |
| Keywords: | Engineering, supplementary cementitious materials (SCM), portlandcement, biomass ash, biochar, natural pozzolan |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8nv6s5x2 |
| By: | Yassine kirat (Laboratoier d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO) & Labex VOLTAIRE) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impacts of both natural-resource abundance and natural-resource volatility on economic growth. We apply the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) approach of Gonzales et al. (2005), which is more flexible than the standard fixed-effects model, to data on 87 countries over the 1989-2015 period. Our results suggest that: (i) greater natural-resource abundance significantly raises economic growth, contrary to the resource-curse paradox; (ii) the impact of natural-resource abundance, investment and human capital on GDP growth rate per capita is non-linear, and varies by the level of natural-resource abundance volatility; and (iii) the subsequent GDP growth loss may reach 17 percentage points per year for countries with the highest natural-resource abundance volatility, compared to those with the lowest natural-resource abundance volatility. Volatility in natural-resource revenues and poor governmental responses then seem to drive the resource-curse paradox, instead of natural-resource abundance as such. |
| Keywords: | Growth, resource curse, natural resources volatility, PSTR, , , , |
| JEL: | C23 F43 Q32 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2024.07 |