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on Mining |
| By: | Seoni Han (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | The global green transition has intensified competition for critical minerals essential to renewable energy and electric vehicles, which require significantly more minerals than traditional technologies. The demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements has surged, leading to supply chain vulnerabilities due to the concentration of production and processing in a few countries.<p> Africa, with its abundant mineral reserves, is emerging as a key player in global supply chains of critical minerals, possessing about 20% of the world’s reserves needed for green transition. Many African governments are reforming mining laws to enhance state control while offering incentives to attract investment. In response, major global players such as the US., the EU, China, Japan, and Canada are increasing cooperation with Africa, each adopting distinctive strategies to secure supply chains.<p> In its partnership with Africa, Korea should pursue a comprehensive strategy across the critical mineral value chains, ensuring ESG compliance, and promoting industrial cooperation aimed at upgrading local processing capabilities. Three key strategies are recommended: (1) tailoring cooperation to Africa’s evolving policy context and infrastructure needs; (2) strengthening resource diplomacy and enhancing multilateral and bilateral cooperation through platforms such as the Korea-Africa Critical Minerals Dialogue; and (3) expanding financial and non-financial support to promote greater private sector engagement. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022493 |
| By: | Gopal K. Sarangi (TERI School of Advanced Studies, New Delhi, India); Han Phoumin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Rabindra Nepal (University of Wollongong, Australia) |
| Abstract: | India’s energy transition and net zero ambitions are expected to generate substantial demand for critical minerals, particularly to support its target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, India continues to face major challenges in domestic sourcing, processing, and refining, while external procurement is increasingly shaped by geopolitical dynamics. This paper analyses the policies and regulations governing critical minerals in India and assesses key supply chain-related risks within the policy landscape. The findings show that India’s approach combines domestic production measures with international partnerships, while resource concentration and geopolitical risks remain key challenges to achieving resilient and secure critical mineral supply chains. |
| Keywords: | - |
| Date: | 2026–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2026-01 |
| By: | Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The United States depends heavily on imported critical minerals, including rare earth elements, needed for semiconductors, renewable energy, AI expansion, and defense systems. Because supply disruptions could seriously harm the economy and national security, the US government has launched Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private program to stockpile emergency supplies of critical minerals. Funded by a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project is aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China, and protecting American--and eventually allied-country--manufacturers from shortages. Project Vault's design, however, raises important questions about its durability and day-to-day operations. Key Takeaways - Unlike the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Project Vault is designed as insurance against systemwide supply shocks, relying on private firms that pay subscription fees for access to reserves during disruptions, which makes it a hybrid of a futures market and a strategic reserve. - Voluntary participation would exclude both large self-insuring firms and small enterprises unaware of their exposure, hollowing out the risk pool in ways that could cause the program to fail when it is needed most. - Storing 60 highly differentiated minerals and processed derivatives is far more complex than stockpiling oil because supplies can degrade over time and often need to be processed to be usable during a crisis. - To be effective, Project Vault should require mandatory participation with fees scaled to firm size, fund against worst-case collective supply shocks, and prioritize processed materials over raw ore. - In the near term, building reserves of processed materials would likely depend on Chinese suppliers, making long-term investment in US and allied processing capacity critical. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-8 |
| By: | Miller, Hugh; Morandi, Pau |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138718 |
| By: | Charis Psaltis; Neophytos Loizides; Andreas Michael; Nikandros Ioannidis; Edward Morgan Jones; Laura Sudulich |
| Abstract: | The paper presents key findings from a public opinion survey and conjoint experiment with a representative sample of 800 Greek Cypriots, examining public attitudes toward natural resources co-management in the Eastern Mediterranean and the green transition in the context of the Cyprus Problem. It examines views on climate change, joint energy projects, political arrangements, and possible confidence building measures (CBMs) that could build trust between the two communities. The major finding of this research is that it identified potential peace packages accepted by a majority of the Greek Cypriot voters that include Cyprus-Turkey co-operation as part of a comprehensive settlement and wider regional co-operation on energy in the Eastern Mediterranean. |
| Keywords: | Cyprus, Cyprus Issue, Energy Cooperation, Eastern Mediterranean, Conjoint Experiment, Bizonal Bicommunal Federation |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:213 |
| By: | Hyok Jung KIM (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of North American supply chain integration and its implications for Korea. After being suspended under Trump, the North American Leaders’ Summit was revived by the Biden administration with agendas on health, competitiveness, and migration, later expanding to initiatives such as the Semiconductor Forum and critical minerals mapping. Despite political strains during the Trump years, cross-border investment among the United States, Canada, and Mexico remained resilient, and Biden’s term saw renewed growth. Under Trump 2.0, “America First” tariffs imposed via IEEPA and Section 232 have hindered integration, but respect for the USMCA and anti-China measures may paradoxically reinforce regional ties. Input–output analysis shows deepening supply chain linkages in autos, batteries, and especially semiconductors, with positive spillovers for Korea’s exports. Korea benefits most directly from batteries, chemicals, and autos, and indirectly from semiconductors, suggesting its optimal strategy is to act as a complementary partner to North American integration. |
| Keywords: | North America; Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022497 |
| By: | Eun Kyo Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Chuel Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Woo Jung Shim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Sangsoo Park (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Advanced manufacturing industries targeted by the Made in China 2025 strategy, such as robots, semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs, including autonomous driving), and batteries, have grown exponentially since 2015. With the exception of semiconductors, several categories within robots, batteries, and EVs have exceeded the localization targets outlined in the strategy. China now holds an overall value chain advantage over South Korea in these sectors. Across R&D, procurement (supply chain), production, services, and demand markets (both domestic and overseas), China maintains an edge in robots, EVs, batteries, and autonomous vehicles. Korea retains superiority in equipment procurement, sales and maintenance services, and overseas demand for the semiconductor industry, driven by its memory chip competitiveness. Korea also maintains a slight lead in robotics R&D capabilities for product development and design.<p> While the expanding rivalry poses threats to Korean industries, opportunities exist to differentiate in advanced and niche markets. China’s price competitiveness, its expanding dominance in new AI-based markets, and its internalizing supply chains are common threats. However, leveraging its overall technological prowess and process expertise in materials, components, and equipment, Korea maintains a qualitative advantage in certain categories. Korea must seek to enter global premium markets, such as the US and the EU, emphasizing stability and reliability.<p> Up to now, Korean industry has pursued an “ultra-gap” strategy, in which firms sought to maintain wide competitive moats against their Chinese competitors. This strategy is no longer viable. Korea urgently needs to shift its policy toward competitive cooperation and strategic utilization, and secure a position in the future ecosystems that China aims to dominate, actively utilizing China’s high-tech and technological ecosystems. We must discover new cooperative models that combine China’s technology, production base, and data with Korea’s innovative ideas. |
| Keywords: | China; Chinese manufacturing; manufacturing industry; advanced manufacturing; robots; semiconductors; electric vehicles; EVs; batteries; competition; competition policy; competitiveness; Korea-China c |
| JEL: | F13 F23 F53 L60 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:022842 |
| By: | Kyoung-Kuk Kim; Donghwa Seo |
| Abstract: | We analyze intentional block delays (mining gaps) in Proof-of-Work blockchain systems, where miners strategically balance mining rewards against operational costs. Using a game-theoretic model, we derive a Nash equilibrium with optimal mining strategies and establish necessary and sufficient conditions for mining gap existence. We demonstrate that mining gaps, when combined with difficulty adjustment algorithms, can destabilize the system. We propose conditions to address sustainability concerns as block rewards decrease and reliance on transaction fees increases. Our findings are illustrated through a two-player game simulation and an analysis of the Bitcoin network, providing insights for blockchain design and policy. This work contributes to understanding strategic mining behavior and its impact on blockchain stability and efficiency. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.03153 |
| By: | Saakstra, Sake |
| Abstract: | Pre-financial-investment-decision (pre-FID) offtake commitments in clean-hydrogen projects reduce the cumulative cancellation probability by 11.3 to 13.2 percentage points across five convergent matching estimators (IPWRA, OLS-adjusted, regression-adjusted matching, doubly-robust IPTW, naive IPW), using a project-level panel of 1, 354 announced developments from the S&P Global Hydrogen Project Database (2010-2026). The estimate is exceptionally robust to unobserved-confounder bias: the Oster delta_null = 20.23 implies that for unobservables to explain the effect, they would need to be twenty times more influential than the maximally-included set of observable controls. This is the largest and most identification-secure treatment effect in the related dissertation work. The substantive interpretation invokes the sigma-channel of the real-options framework: offtake commitments reduce revenue volatility and counterparty risk simultaneously. The sigma-channel comparative statics predict that revenue-volatility-reducing instruments should produce larger effects in high-volatility sectors than in low-volatility sectors. We test this prediction directly via cross-sectoral heterogeneity: the offtake-commitment ATT is concentrated in power and heat (-0.30 pp) and transport (-0.27 pp), and substantially smaller or null in chemical (-0.04 pp) and refinery (-0.02 pp). The pattern matches the sigma-channel prediction in sign and approximate magnitude, providing direct mechanism-identifying empirical evidence that complements the average-treatment-effect identification. The methodological contribution is a cross-sectoral heterogeneity test as a direct mechanism-identifying strategy, supplementing the conventional partial-identification sensitivity analysis (Oster bounds). The policy implication is that capex-grant programmes such as the EU Innovation Fund should incorporate demonstrable pre-FID offtake-commitment eligibility requirements, jointly addressing the financing-constraint friction (the Innovation Fund's current target) and the counterparty-risk friction (the Innovation Fund currently leaves unaddressed). |
| Keywords: | offtake commitment, counterparty risk, revenue volatility, real options, sectoral heterogeneity, matching estimators, Oster sensitivity, clean hydrogen |
| JEL: | D81 G31 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129304 |
| By: | Muya, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of current account sustainability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), focusing on the structural determinants of persistent external imbalances and the policy mechanisms required for sustainable adjustment. Drawing on both theoretical and empirical frameworks, the study demonstrates that the DRC’s current account deficit is predominantly structural, rooted in weak economic diversification, chronic service deficits, and significant primary income outflows linked to foreign-owned extractive industries. Using a mixed methodological approach, including descriptive analysis and econometric modeling, the findings reveal that external imbalances are closely tied to domestic structural constraints and limited absorptive capacity. The paper argues that sustainable adjustment requires not only macroeconomic stabilization but also deep structural transformation, including industrial diversification, financial development, and improved allocation of foreign direct investment (FDI). The study contributes to the broader literature on current account sustainability in resource-dependent economies and offers policy recommendations tailored to the Congolese context. |
| Keywords: | Current Account Sustainability; External Imbalances; Structural Deficit; Economic Diversification; Absorptive Capacity; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Resource-Dependent Economies; Balance of Payments Adjustment; Financial Development; Democratic Republic of Congo |
| JEL: | F33 F41 F43 O11 O16 O55 Q33 |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129368 |
| By: | Olayinka Oyekola (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Olabambo Oluwasuji (Cabinet Office, Glasgow) |
| Abstract: | Can resource windfalls explain the accumulation of productive capabilities? We examine this question using a panel of 140 countries over the period 1995-2023, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in international commodity prices through countries' predetermined net export structures. We find that resource windfalls have a robust negative effect on productive capabilities. Using our preferred dynamic specifications, a one-standard-deviation increase in resource windfalls is associated with a long-run decline in productive capabilities of approximately 0.10 standard deviations. Beyond the average effect, we document substantial heterogeneity across countries. The adverse effects are concentrated among lower-income and initially less sophisticated economies, while richer and more sophisticated economies exhibit greater resilience to resource windfalls. We also provide evidence suggesting that resource windfalls alter the composition of investment in ways that contribute relatively little to capability accumulation. Our findings suggest that resource windfalls may hinder structural transformation by slowing the accumulation of productive capabilities. |
| Keywords: | resource windfalls, productive capabilities, structural transformation, economic development, commodity prices |
| JEL: | F43 O11 O13 O14 O30 Q32 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2608 |