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on Mining |
| By: | Joo Hye Kim (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Pyoung Seob Yang (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 탄소중립 실현을 위해 태양광 패널, 풍력 터빈 등 재생에너지 발전과 전기차(배터리) 보급이 전 세계적으로 확대되면서 이 제품들의 원료인 핵심광물에 대한 수요가 급증하고 있다. 문제는 중국이 채굴(원광·정광)부터 정·제련(기초·가공 금속), 재자원화(스크랩)에 이르기까지 글로벌 핵심광물 공급망 전 단계에서 주도적인 위치를 차지하고 있다는 점이다. 특히 정·제련 분야에서 중국의 영향력은 압도적이며, 채굴 단계에서도 일부 광물에 대해 상당한 지배력을 행사하고 있다. 이에 미국, EU, 일본 등 주요국과 함께 한국정부도 대중국 의존도 축소(탈중국)와 에너지 구조 전환(탈탄소)을 목표로 핵심광물의 공급 안정화 전략을 강화하고 있다. 특히 한국은 전기차 배터리와 반도체 등 첨단산업의 주요 제조국임에도, 리튬·코발트·니켈 등 핵심광물 정·제련 제품의 대중국 수입의존도가 70%를 넘어 공급망 취약성이 높다. Together with the global expansion of projects to realize carbon neutrality, demand for key minerals—used as raw materials for renewable energy power generation such as solar panels and wind turbines, as well as for electric vehicles (batteries)—is rapidly increasing. One major concern is that China holds a dominant position across all stages of the global critical minerals supply chain, from mining (ore and concentrate) to refining and smelting (basic and processed metals), and recycling (scrap). In particular, China’s influence in the refining and smelting sector is overwhelming, and the nation also exerts significant control over the mining stage for certain minerals. In response, major countries including the United States, the EU, Japan, and the Korean government are strategically working to establish stable supply chains in this area, aiming to reduce reliance on China (de-Chinaization) and to transition energy structures towards decarbonization. Notably, although Korea is a major manufacturer in advanced industries such as electric vehicle batteries and semiconductors, its dependence on China for refined and processed products of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel exceeds 70%, posing significant vulnerabilities in its supply chain. |
| Keywords: | China;Critical Mineral;Supply Chain;Economic Security;Economic Cooperation |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:022545 |
| By: | Wonseok Choi (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Soo Hyun (Catherine) Oh (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Sunghun Cho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jin Hee Hong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Boyeong Park (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구의 목적은 전기차 배터리, 반도체, 재생에너지 설비 등 전략산업의 근간인 핵심광물의 공급망 위험을 진단하고, 한국의 ‘10대 전략 핵심광물’을 중심으로 수입 의존 구조와 협력대상국을 도출해 통상협정을 활용한 공급망 강화방안을 제시하는 것이다. 본 보고서의 연구 범위는 Kowalski and Legendre (2023)의 분류를 바탕으로 한국의 10대 전략 핵심광물별 원광ㆍ중간재ㆍ스크랩 등을 HS6로 연계해 분석하였다. 본 보고서의 구성은 크게 글로벌 공급망ㆍ리스크 및 한국의 수입 구조 등 공급망을 분석하는 파트(제2~제3장)와 협정 네트워크ㆍ조항 분석과 전략을 제안하는 파트(제4~제6장)로 구성되었다. The purpose of this study is to assess the supply chain risks of critical minerals that form the foundation of strategic industries such as electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, and renewable energy equipment. Focusing on Korea’s “Top 10 Strategic Critical Minerals, ” it identifies the import dependency structure and key partner countries, and proposes ways to strengthen supply chains through trade agreements. The analytical scope of this report follows the classification of Kowalski and Legendre (2023) and links raw materials, intermediates, and scrap by HS6 codes for each of Korea’s ten strategic critical minerals. The report consists of two main parts: a global supply chain and risk analysis, including Korea’s import structure (Chapters 2-3), and an agreement network, clause analysis, and strategic proposals (Chapters 4-6). |
| Keywords: | Trade Agreements;Critical mineral supply chains;Economic security;International trade |
| Date: | 2025–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:022524 |
| By: | Wonseok CHOI (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | Korea’s push for critical minerals security is anchored in a broader economic security agenda that treats upstream inputs as strategic dependencies for high-tech industries (notably semiconductors and secondary batteries). In 2023, the government introduced a national strategy to secure a reliable supply of critical minerals with an explicit target of reducing Korea’s heavy reliance on imports from a small set of supplier countries—from around 80% to 50% by 2030. This strategy operationalizes “critical minerals” through a two-tier classification: 33 critical minerals selected for economic security management, and 10 strategic critical minerals designated for intensive management to stabilize supply chains for key industries. <p> The strategy combines market intelligence and buffer capacity. It includes plans to develop a global minerals supply map and an early-warning system for supply risks, while strengthening public stockpiling—raising the coverage target to 100 days (from 54 days) for critical minerals. In parallel, Korea has sought to expand international cooperation and diversify supply sources through plurilateral platforms and bilateral arrangements, positioning diplomacy (including MOUs) as a complement to domestic preparedness. |
| Keywords: | Critical Minerals; Agreements; Supply Chain; Investor Protection; Workforce Mobility |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022507 |
| By: | Krzysztof Wojtowicz; Eddy Bekkers; Maksym Chepeliev; Ayse Nihal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce the Global Trade Analysis Project Critical Minerals (GTAP-CM) Data Base which is an extension of the GTAP Circular Economy (GTAP-CE) Data Base with 35 additional sectors. The additional sectors are related to the renewable energy value chain, including electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and permanent magnets, as well as mining and refining products used in these sectors. Data reconciliation is implemented using the MSplitCom utility and RAS balancing method, utilizing data inputs on bilateral trade, production, cost and supply structures. We describe how a range of data inputs from various sources are combined, processed and reconciled to generate these data inputs. Trade data at the HS6 level are sourced from the BACI international trade database compiled by CEPII, production data for mining goods are from United States Geological Survey (USGS), data for downstream activities are derived from BloombergNEF, International Energy Agency (IEA) and several other complementary data sources, cost and supply structures are compiled using inputs from the academic literature and technical information. Data processing and reconciliation includes harmonizing units of trade and production data, adjusting the cases of exports exceeding domestic production, and estimating unavailable production values using constrained optimization procedures, among other steps. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:resmem:7918 |
| By: | Lucas Lamby (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab) |
| Abstract: | Bolivia’s mining sector holds exceptional potential. The country possesses one of the world’s largest lithium resources, ranks fifth in global silver production, and is the fourth-largest zinc exporter. Yet output has stagnated for over a decade: no large-scale mine has entered production since 2014, and export growth reflects rising prices, not increased output. The regulatory environment is the central constraint: administrative contracts cannot be transferred or used as collateral, large areas are reserved for state enterprises, and Bolivia’s withdrawal from international arbitration has weakened investor protection. Cooperatives and private firms coexist without a framework for formal collaboration, generating conflicts and fiscal distortions. Roughly 60% of Bolivia’s territory remains geologically unexplored, raising exploration risk and limiting the discovery of new deposits. This publication proposes a reform agenda spanning the regulatory, institutional, and fiscal dimensions of the sector, with particular attention to lithium as Bolivia’s most significant untapped opportunity. |
| Keywords: | Bolivia |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:264 |
| By: | Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich |
| Abstract: | Forty years of hyperglobalization have seeded choke points everywhere—from the Strait of Hormuz to Taiwan’s silicon fabs. Paul Krugman identifies the symptom; Nobel Laureate Michael Spence identifies the cause: decentralized markets systematically under invest in resilience because its benefits, unlike those of efficiency, are non-appropriable network-wide public goods. We formalize both diagnoses. Modeling choke points as two-stage Leontief production networks, we show that processing-stage concentration — measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) —amplifies supply shocks into out sized price volatility. Drawing on Samuelson’s (1952) spatial price equilibrium framework, we introduce the concept of incomparative advantages: developing countries hold comparative advantage in Stage 1 extraction while a single dominant nation (notably China) holds comparative advantage in Stage 2 processing, creating structural concentration that vertical integration could partially dissolve. Panel data for cobalt, lithium, and copper yield an instrumental-variables estimate of ˆβ = 0.612, confirm ing that processing-stage HHI causally raises price volatility. We extend the analysis to semiconductors, healthcare, financial infrastructure (SWIFT), and energy, ranking twelve global choke points by severity and likely disruption duration. Policy must choose among onshoring, international cooperation, and hybrid strategies—with cooperation cheaper but harder. Artificial intelligence amplifies near-term concentration risk while offering long-run resilience dividends through materials substitution and process acceleration |
| Keywords: | choke points, supply chain resilience, Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, Leontief technology, incomparative advantages, hyperglobalization, semiconductors, critical minerals |
| JEL: | F14 F60 L13 O25 Q31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128835 |
| By: | Gyu-Pan KIM (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | As the competition for technological supremacy between the United States and China has intensified since the 2020s, the Japanese government is also staking its future on the “revival” of its semiconductor industry by strengthening its supply chain. Japan’s global market share in semiconductor products peaked at around 50% in the 1980s but has since fallen to around 10% in the 2020s. It is now maintaining its presence in the so-called legacy semiconductor sector, which includes power semiconductors, microcontrollers (MCUs), and CMOS image sensors. In the semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials sector, which maintains a relatively high global market share, certain semiconductor materials—such as yellow phosphorus, helium, rare gases, and fluorite—are exposed to the risk of supply chain disruptions due to high import dependence on specific countries.<p> This WEB paper analyzes the supply chain structure of Japan’s semiconductor industry and examines the government’s semiconductor industry policy from the perspective of strengthening supply chain resilience, with the aim of exploring future directions for cooperation between Japan and South Korea in the semiconductor industry. In the second section we analyze the input structure of Japan’s semiconductor industry using input-output analysis, while also assessing the import dependency of Japanese semiconductor products and materials to examine the supply chain structure of the industry. The third section provides an overview of the industrial policies the Japanese government has been pursuing since 2020 to revitalize the semiconductor industry, with a particular focus on the next-generation semiconductor project—the Rapidus 2-nanometer foundry. Section IV proposes a cooperation agenda between South Korea and Japan which involves: first, the sharing of supply chain information regarding export control, and joint procurement of semiconductor raw materials; and second, the joint development of semiconductor back-end packaging technologies and cooperation in the field of AI semiconductors. |
| Keywords: | Japan's Semiconductor Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–04–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022513 |
| By: | Lemos, Morena Hanbury; Hickel, Jason |
| Abstract: | In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodied in trade. We use environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) analysis to measure net flows of embodied materials (biomass, fossil fuels, minerals, and metals), land, and labour between Latin America, the global North, China, and the rest of the global South (1995 to 2020) across seven sectors, along with wage compensation against the labour flows. We find that Latin America has suffered a large drain of all resources to the North over the period. In 2020, the North net-appropriated 935 million tons of materials (including biomass, minerals, metals, and fossil fuels), 4 million km2 of land, and 53 billion hours of labour (worth €816 billion in Northern wages) from Latin America, mostly consumed as manufactured goods and services. We find that Latin America's position in the world economy is increasingly ‘peripheral’ in character. It remains a major supplier of primary commodities to the North, experiences a greater per capita drain of biomass, metals, and land than China or the rest of the global South, and disproportionately suffers the ecological damages of Northern consumption. |
| Keywords: | dependency theory; global inequality; input-output analysis; uUnequal exchange; uneven development |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138593 |
| By: | Jihyun Jung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | Global supply chains are undergoing structural change as the prolonged U.S.–China strategic rivalry, the normalization of geopolitical risks, and post pandemic disruptions shift the organizing principle from efficiency to stability, resilience, security, and trust. Major economies such as the United States, EU, and Japan have responded by strengthening policies for supply chain diversification, friend shoring, and strategic management of critical minerals and advanced industries.<p> In response to these environmental changes, China is also strengthening the strategic nature of its overseas economic activities. Whereas Chinese companies' overseas expansion previously focused on market expansion or resource acquisition, it has recently shifted to a structural network expansion strategy aimed at responding to the restructuring of global supply chains. Specifically, China is expanding its global economic network by simultaneously establishing overseas production bases, supply bases, and infrastructure/logistics networks through a combined approach involving Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI), overseas contracting projects, and trade activities.<p> This strategy goes beyond merely relocating production bases overseas. China is pursuing a multi-layered strategy: strengthening global market access through overseas production bases, establishing supply bases to secure critical minerals and intermediate goods, and solidifying long-term economic footholds through infrastructure and industrial park development. This can be understood as China's strategic response to maintain its economic influence and enhance industrial competitiveness amid the global supply chain restructuring. <p> Therefore, China's overseas expansion should be analyzed not merely as a phenomenon of increased investment, but as a process of restructuring global production and supply networks. This report approaches China's overseas economic activities from this perspective, understanding them as a strategy for building production and supply networks, and systematically classifies China’s overseas bases into three functional types and identifies core hub countries through standardized indicator analysis. |
| Keywords: | Chian; Overseas Production Bases; Overseas Supply Bases; China's Overseas Network |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022511 |
| By: | Candeias, Marta; Boavida, Nuno; Moniz, António |
| Abstract: | This publication was developed as a result of national case studies and independent desk research within the European project Metallica and serves as a comprehensive guide and analysis for stakeholders in the metal sector. This document aims to outline challenges posed by the twin transition – the digitalization process of work and sustainability of production process - while emphasizing the role of workers' participation in preventing and resolving disputes. A conclusion may be considered as the need for clear national strategies to guide the transformation of the metal sector. There is strong agreement that employer strategies must prioritize employee inclusion, with structured opportunities for participation in planning and implementation. The role of trade unions is evolving. Unions are seen not only as defenders of workers' rights but increasingly as strategic actors in shaping the transition. All countries identify skill development — both technical and soft — as foundational for a just transition. Finally, all cases acknowledged the inevitability of workplace reorganization and call for pre-emptive and structured consultation mechanisms, especially regarding AI, data governance, and occupational safety. |
| Keywords: | Twin Transition, Metal Sector; Workers’ Participation; Conflict Prevention; Social Dialogue |
| JEL: | J52 J53 M12 M14 O14 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128798 |
| By: | Jihyun Jung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jaewan Cheong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Cheolwon Lee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Suyeob Na (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jino Kim (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Hyuk-Hwang Kim (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Hyojin Lee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jae Hee Choi (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 미ㆍ중 전략경쟁의 심화와 디리스킹, 보호무역 및 산업정책의 확산은 글로벌 가치사슬(GVC)과 공급망의 구조적 재편을 촉진하고 있다. 특히 핵심광물ㆍ에너지, 첨단부품ㆍ장비, 디지털ㆍ그린 전환과 연계된 전략산업 분야에서 각국은 공급망 취약성 완화와 경제안보 강화를 동시에 추구하고 있다. 이러한 환경에서 중국은 해외직접투자(OFDI), 대외도급공사, 무역(수출입) 및 제3국 경유(가치사슬 연결) 경로를 결합하여 해외 네트워크를 재구성하고 있으며, 이는 한국의 해외진출ㆍ공급망 전략 및 대중국 전략에도 구조적 제약과 기회를 동시에 제공한다. 본 연구는 중국의 해외 생산ㆍ공급거점 다변화 양상을 투자ㆍ무역ㆍ인프라(네트워크) 관점에서 통합적으로 분석하고, 이를 통해 도출한 중요 거점지역에서의 한ㆍ중 경쟁력을 비교ㆍ검토함으로써 한국의 경쟁력 제고 및 대중국 전략 방향을 제시하는 데 목적이 있다. Amid intensifying U.S.–China strategic competition, the global spread of de-risking, protectionist industrial policies, and economic security regulations is accelerating a structural reconfiguration of global value chains and supply networks. In strategic sectors linked to critical minerals, energy, advanced components and equipment, and digital and green transitions, major economies are increasingly prioritizing supply chain resilience and economic security alongside cost efficiency. Against this backdrop, China has been restructuring its overseas economic presence by combining multiple channels—including outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), overseas contracted projects, trade, and value-chain linkages via third countries—to build an integrated network of overseas production bases, supply bases, and infrastructure and logistics hubs. These developments create both constraints and opportunities for Korea's outward investment strategies, supply-chain resilience, and broader economic engagement with China. |
| Keywords: | China;Supply chain;Overseas Production;Supply Bases;Korea-China Competitiveness |
| Date: | 2025–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:022536 |
| By: | Aries Eric (European Commission - JRC); Retsoulis Ioannis (European Commission - JRC); Gonzalez Cuenca Jose (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report presents a systematic assessment of 30 innovative techniques/processes in the Iron and Steel (IS) sector for depollution, decarbonisation, resource efficiency and circularity. The work is carried out by INCITE under Article 27a of the Industrial Emissions Directive, following an integrated approach for assessing the technique’s degree of maturity (i.e. Technology Readiness Level), environmental performance (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions reduction, air/water emissions reduction, energy consumption, circularity), cost effectiveness and cross media effects. Eighteen techniques with high degree of maturity which could provide significant environmental benefits, are proposed to be considered in the forthcoming review of the Iron and Steel Best Available Techniques Reference Document (IS BREF) (commencing in 2026). The report provides information on the deployment of key decarbonisation routes. Between 2026 and 2030, approximately 17 Mt yr⁻¹ of direct reduced iron production capacity (eight plants) together with about 35 Mt yr⁻¹ of new electric arc furnace steelmaking capacity (sixteen plants) is confirmed, marking a decisive shift of the EU steel industry towards both hydrogen steelmaking and electrification / steel scrap recycling. These findings support the EU’s zero pollution ambition and the 2030/2040 climate targets, providing sound technical information which can be used for developing stronger environmental norms (BAT conclusions) for the IS sector in Europe. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc146558 |
| By: | Blanchard, Hally (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, School of Geography and Environment, Oxford, UK); Barbrook-Johnson, Pete (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Obersteiner, Michael (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, School of Geography and Environment, Oxford, UK) |
| Abstract: | Mining of the seabed in areas beyond national jurisdiction ('the Area') raises considerable governance questions for the International Seabed Authority as negotiations on mining regulations progress. To operationalize the principles enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea through rules, regulations, and procedures for deep-sea mining, legally consistent decisions on exploitation that balance political and economic interests, environmental protection, and equity must be taken under substantial scientific and economic uncertainty. This article examines the decision-making environment for polymetallic nodule mining through 22 expert interviews and a co-created causal loop diagram. The analysis identifies three reinforcing subsystems shaping the deep-sea mining decision environment: economic and political demand, contestation over socio-ecological governance principles, and the production of knowledge. It also highlights a stewardship dynamic centered on regulatory stringency, thresholds, and adaptive governance. The findings show that knowledge production is a policy arena in itself, and that decision-making is shaped not only by technical uncertainty, but also by contested values, strategic narratives, and feedbacks that reinforce investment, advocacy, and disagreement between stakeholders over risk perception. By mapping these interactions, our research offers a systems-based account of the forces that shape negotiations as a shared reference point for policymakers that might support the design of more adaptive, transparent, and feedback-informed governance of deep-sea mining in the Area. |
| Keywords: | Deep-sea Mining; Polymetallic Nodules; International Seabed Authority; Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction; Marine Governance; Systems Thinking; Causal Loop Diagram |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-15 |
| By: | Weber, Jeremy; McCoy, Shawn; Black, Katie Jo; Harleman, Max |
| Abstract: | Can turning an environmental hazard into an amenity help sustain communities facing industrial and population decline? We study Pennsylvania coal communities over three decades, estimating how mine-impaired waterways and their restoration affected population growth as mining and manufacturing declined regionally. We find that communities with mine-impaired waterways and no restoration had 4 percentage points less population growth than similar nearby communities, leading to depopulation for many. Even partial restoration offset this effect, with growth driven by college-educated individuals and those age 65 and older. The presence of mine water treatment systems, usually a series of wetlands and ponds, did not affect population growth apart from effects on water quality. In the face of major economic transitions, environmental restoration can help communities retain and attract residents, thereby advancing the goals of traditional place-based economic development incentives. |
| Keywords: | Mine Drainage; Amenities, Population, Coal, Pollution Mitigation |
| JEL: | O13 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129168 |
| By: | Nundo Chilima (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how external commodity shocks, exchange rate depreciation, and monetary policy shocks shape macroeconomic adjustment in Zambia. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2024, the analysis applies sign-restricted local projections to trace the responses of output, inflation, exchange rates, policy rates, and lending conditions. The copper-to-oil ratio serves as the baseline indicator of Zambia’s external commodity position because it captures copper export-price gains relative to oil import costs. Robustness checks use separate copper-price and oil-price systems, a longer signrestriction window, state-dependent specifications, and Bayesian VAR evidence. The results show that favorable copper-to-oil shocks lower inflation, ease lending conditions, support kwacha appreciation, and gradually raise output. Exchange-rate depreciation shocks generate persistent inflationary effects, confirming strong exchange-rate passthrough in Zambia´s import-dependent economy. Monetary-policy shocks reduce output and affect financial conditions, but do not produce a clean disinflationary response in the linear baseline, indicating constrained transmission and price-puzzle dynamics. State-dependent results show that transmission varies across inflation and commodity regimes, with weak commodity conditions amplifying inflationary and exchange-rate stress. The findings imply that stabilization in Zambia requires stronger external buffers, credible monetary-fiscal coordination, deeper financial intermediation, and reduced exposure to imported cost shocks. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices; Copper-to-oil ratio; Exchange-rate pass-through; Monetary policy; Sign-restricted local projections; State dependence; Zambia |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F41 Q43 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_11 |
| By: | Nassiri, Somayeh; Sayed, Aun Abbas; Haider, Md Mostofa; Alugubelli, Sanjana |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the performance of recycled and virgin fibers in fiber-reinforced concrete (FRC), with a focus on workability, concrete production, and mechanical properties. Fibers were directly sourced from manufacturers and used at dosages recommended by manufacturers and supported by the literature. All fibers improved the modulus of rupture of plain (control) concrete. The fibers investigated included plastic, steel, composite, glass, and basalt fibers. Across most fiber types—regardless of whether they were virgin or recycled—FRC demonstrated improved post-cracking load-carrying capacity, resulting in enhanced residual strength and ductility. Plastic fibers exhibited the best post-cracking performance, with high residual strength, toughness, and effective flexural strength ratios, though they reduced workability. Recycled plastic fibers performed comparably to virgin plastic fibers in terms of post-cracking behavior. Steel fibers had minimal impact on workability and provided good residual strength and toughness; recycled steel fibers performed similarly to the best-performing steel fiber and outperformed other steel fibers. The improved performance of random-shaped and twisted steel fibers was attributed to enhanced fiber–matrix bonding. Recycled glass fiber-reinforced polymer composite fibers from decommissioned wind turbine blades showed some improvement in post-cracking performance, particularly for larger fiber sizes; however, further testing is needed to optimize fiber size and dosage. In contrast, glass and basalt fibers exhibited limited post-cracking performance compared to plastic, steel, and composite fibers. Most fibers increased compressive strength, while improvements in the modulus of elasticity were negligible. Fibers generally reduced drying shrinkage, with a maximum reduction of 21% at 56 days. Overall, FRC performance was strongly influenced by fiber characteristics, including length, surface texture, chemical surface groups, and dosage. Recycled fibers demonstrated comparable performance to virgin fibers and showed potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, depending on recycling processes and treatments. These results indicate that recycled fibers are suitable for rigid pavement applications in California. Based on comparative performance, the following fibers are recommended for further evaluation: BarChip R50, BarChip 48, MAC Matrix, Strux 90/40, and Ferro-Green plastic fibers; Flexo and Helix steel fibers; and Recon XL composite fibers. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, fiber-reinforced concrete, recycled fiber, sustainability, durability |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2tc6c1wc |
| By: | Mdhlalose, Dickson |
| Abstract: | The relationships among different investment types in South Africa, and how these shift with the overall economic environment, are the focus of this research, as is what this means for managing the risk of investment collections. Using a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) method, we observe how the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index, South African government bonds, gold priced in South African rand, listed property, and the USD/ZAR exchange rate move together in both rising (bull) and falling (bear) markets from January 2000 to December 2024, with 300 months of data. During bear markets, the way investments' returns relate to each other increases considerably, which supports the idea of contagion and, in effect, lowers the number of genuinely separate investments in a portfolio by roughly 50% compared to bull markets. South African government bonds do not protect investments during bear market periods, which is typical for a developing nation with growing government finance issues and a series of credit rating downgrades. |
| Keywords: | Markov-switching VAR, Regime-dependent correlations, Safe haven assets, Portfolio risk management, Dynamic asset allocation |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G15 G01 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341030 |
| By: | Florian H. Schneider (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Vanessa Valero (Institut Mines-Télecom Business School); Roberto A. Weber (Department of Economics, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We study whether different factor inputs, capital and labor, are perceived as differentially deserving of their returns to production and the impact of such perceptions on support for redistributive policies. We develop an experimental paradigm to measure fundamental perceptions of distinct inputs deservingness, holding constant many factors that may justify differentially rewarding inputs in more natural environments. In representative samples of the U.S. and the Swiss populations, participants decide how to allocate production rewards between providers of work effort and financial investment. We find a tendency to perceive work as more deserving than investment, but also substantial individual heterogeneity. Behaviorally measured deservingness perceptions predict support for policies that differentially tax capital and labor and, in Switzerland, voting in a national referendum on capital taxation. We show that these relationships are independent of other fairness perceptions and economic and social considerations. Our work highlights the significance of notions of deservingness in shaping policy support. |
| Keywords: | deservingness, fairness, redistribution, capital gains |
| JEL: | D33 D72 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2612 |
| By: | Ajay Kumar Verma; Nunik Srikandi Putri; Neo Paul Lesupi |
| Abstract: | This study develops a regime-aware portfolio allocation framework that integrates Markov switching models with Reinforcement Learning (RL) to dynamically allocate across equities (SPY), long-term Treasuries (TLT), and gold (GLD). Using daily ETF data from 2004-2025, we first characterize market behavior through a discrete Markov chain and then estimate a three-state Gaussian Hidden Markov Model (HMM) selected by the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The estimated regimes-low-volatility, transitional, and high-volatility-exhibit strong persistence and state-dependent return dynamics consistent with recent findings on nonlinear market states (Ardia et al., 2024; Gupta & Pierdzioch, 2023). State-conditional analysis shows that SPY dominates in stable regimes, while TLT and GLD provide protection during stressed periods, motivating regime-conditioned allocation rules. We evaluate rule-based rotation and RL-driven strategies using a 30% out-of-sample test window with a one-day execution lag to avoid look-ahead bias. Both HMM-based allocations outperform a passive SPY benchmark, while the RL policy achieves the highest risk-adjusted performance, delivering the strongest Sharpe ratio and materially lower drawdowns, yet remains fully interpretable through discrete regime-dependent actions. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the three-state specification relative to two-state alternatives. Overall, the results demonstrate that RL can systematically enhance HMM-based regime detection, providing a transparent, adaptive, and empirically grounded framework for tactical asset allocation. The combined HMM-RL system provides a transparent, rules-based approach to tactical allocation that improves risk-adjusted performance relative to standard benchmark strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.27848 |