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on Mining |
| By: | Diego Dessi; Simona Iammarino; Stefano Usai |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the European Union (EU)’s strategy for securing Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) within the framework of Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA). As the green and digital transitions escalate global demand, the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) establishes ambitious 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing, and recycling to reduce reliance on concentrated foreign suppliers. The study critically evaluates the EU’s main policy targets against the natural endowment of Strategic Raw Materials (SRMs) through global comparisons and subnational mapping at the NUTS-2 level. Findings indicate that European SRM resources are generally below global averages and highly concentrated in specific regions, predominantly in the Nordic countries and the Iberian Peninsula. We argue that CRMA’s top-down approach risks overlooking regional capabilities, geological constraints, and social responses from the communities involved. The paper suggests that without integrating place-based approaches and fostering equitable international interregional partnerships, the current strategy may undermine the EU’s pursuit of the targets of current industrial strategies for competitiveness and technological sovereignty. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processing and refinement of critical minerals and rare earths. The rivalry now unfolds across multiple frontlines, extending beyond innovation itself to encompass infrastructure, energy availability, and technology deployment across the New South. Its outcome will depend less on breakthrough inventions alone than on each country’s capacity to integrate technology, industrial policy, and energy systems into cohesive national strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb07_26 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processing and refinement of critical minerals and rare earths. The rivalry now unfolds across multiple frontlines, extending beyond innovation itself to encompass infrastructure, energy availability, and technology deployment across the New South. Its outcome will depend less on breakthrough inventions alone than on each country’s capacity to integrate technology, industrial policy, and energy systems into cohesive national strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb07_26 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolàs Maduro caused international astonishment, raising questions about respect for international law. And, quite logically, the operation led to numerous analyses, both of the political, security and geostrategic arguments put forward by Washington, and of the underlying ambitions behind this decision, which has no real precedent in recent history. In addition to the fight against narco-trafficking, it was of course the oil issue that came first, noting the country's supposedly considerable reserves. However, there is little doubt that it will be extraordinarily difficult to return to the record production levels of past decades. Questions were also raised about the reality of Venezuela's mineral resources and mining reserves, in order to meet the United States' ambitions to secure strategic metals. But with coltan, bauxite and aluminium, the potential of Venezuela remains equally hypothetical. One thing is certain, however: from Venezuela to Ukraine, via Greenland and the Democratic Republic of Congo, American power is accompanied not only by the famous "Monroe Doctrine", but also by a "raw materials doctrine", an essential part of an expansionist strategy reminiscent of the theory of "spheres of influence". Fossil fuels are at least as important as strategic mineral resources, where economic determinants may be secondary, and where preemption by levers other than commercial action is no longer ruled out. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb06_26_1 |
| By: | Michael D. Plante; Isabelle Tseng |
| Abstract: | Commercial interests are striving to bring new lithium projects online in the U.S. at a time of growing desire to reduce reliance on China-dominated supply chains and with expectations that global demand could double over the next five years. |
| Keywords: | lithium; production; U.S. |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:101971 |
| By: | Appiah, Raymond; , KuoRayMao |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the intersection of institutional corruption and environmental crime in rural Ghana, focusing on gold extraction. Using a social and ecological disorganisation framework, it argues that the erosion of governance structures, shaped by colonial legacies and enduring legal dualism, has enabled environmental and social harm. Weak regulatory enforcement, widespread corruption among statutory and customary authorities, and limited state capacity intensify social and ecological breakdown. Chinese companies, particularly those linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), exploit these disordered contexts to carry out environmentally destructive practices with little accountability. The resulting degradation disproportionately affects rural populations as collusion between multinational actors and local elites further weakens resistance and undermine collective governance in rural Ghana. Structural constraints, including conflicting land rights, jurisdictional overlap, and fragmented enforcement, impede efforts to address rural green crime. The chapter concludes that without addressing the systemic roots of social disorganisation and corruption, green crime will persist, driven by global mineral demand, deepening the marginalisation of rural communities and accelerating ecological decline in rural Ghana. |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:eu3pr_v1 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | On the global commodities markets, 2025 largely followed the trajectory set in 2024, with a record rise in precious metals prices against a backdrop of ever-increasing uncertainty, and base metals whose performance was once again largely determined by mining supply levels. On the softs side, cocoa and coffee retreated from past record prices, while the cereals market experienced relative price stability between 2024 and 2025, against a backdrop of abundant harvests worldwide. Oil and gas prices, for their part, have somewhat detached from geopolitical factors and returned to economic fundamentals. With supply plentiful, they ended 2025 on a downward trend, despite a sharp rebound at the end of January 2026 due to a cold start to winter. While commodities are known to be one of the most powerful barometers of the state of the world, this was not the case in 2025. In this paradoxical situation, oil prices hardly reacted to the major tensions in the Middle East, the intensification of the war in Ukraine, or the American intervention in Venezuela. Gold, on the other hand, reflected this. In a highly unstable economic and political environment, one thing is certain: the world has now fully entered the age of metals. In a race to secure supplies of strategic metals, the United States is now pulling out all the stops to try and catch up with China. Beyond the many crises and conflicts, it is the confirmation of the end of a rule-based international order and the return of spheres of influence that will make 2025 a pivotal year. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb13_26_1 |
| By: | Brehm, Margaret E.; Brehm, Paul A.; Cassidy, Alecia; Cassidy, Traviss |
| Abstract: | Using a natural experiment in Indonesia, we estimate the separate economic effects of natural resource booms and shared resource revenue. Contrary to Dutch disease concerns, oil and gas booms promote manufacturing growth, and shared revenue does not harm local manufacturing firms. Shared revenue significantly raises local non-oil GDP, but resource booms do not. Supply-side factors help explain the results: shared revenue increases local population and firm entry, while resource booms do not. Oil and gas booms thus benefit local economies largely through shared revenue. Where the revenue is spent matters more for local growth than where the resources are extracted. |
| Keywords: | Growth, resource booms, decentralization, manufacturing firms, Indonesia, Dutch disease |
| JEL: | H77 O13 O14 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128970 |
| By: | Adefemi Abimbola; Kunal Patel; Michael D. Plante; Isabelle Tseng |
| Abstract: | With demand for electric vehicles failing to meet ambitious projections, automakers, battery companies and utilities are reassessing how best to deploy battery power. |
| Keywords: | batteries; electric vehicles; United States |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102866 |
| By: | Sandrine Levasseur (OFCE, Studies Department, Sciences Po Pari) |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) in the EU face growing turbulence as shrinking consumer subsidies coincide with intensified competition from lower-cost Chinese manufacturers. Recent EU measures - higher tariffs on Chinese EVs and a strategy to reinforce the full industrial value chain - aim to safeguard Europe's automotive capabilities. Yet the easing of CO2 rules for combustion engines and the possible 2026 review of the 2035 phase out date illustrate the challenge of balancing ecological transition, industrial resilience, and household purchasing power. This paper argues for an "electrification shock" to accelerate scale and reduce costs rather than slowing the transition. Demand-side priorities include adapting subsidies to national energy-price conditions, requiring public and corporate fleets to integrate a minimum share of EVs, and ensuring the availability of affordable entry-level models. On the supply side, large-scale support for European battery production and sustained tariff protection are essential to narrow the cost gap with China, while partnerships with Chinese firms must secure genuine technology transfers and protect employment. Such measures must be anchored in a stable and predictable regulatory trajectory, as policy reversals risk deterring investment and slowing the decarbonisation of road transport. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, decarbonisation, EU, China, automotive industry, battery |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:104-2026 |
| By: | Ian O. Lesser |
| Abstract: | From the use of tariffs as a foreign policy instrument, to the weaponization of critical resources, and from targeted sanctions to attacks on critical infrastructure, economic security is at the forefront of international debates. The aggressive use of economic instruments for strategic purposes has become an explicit feature of international affairs, in a way not seen since the interwar period[1]. Beyond the weaponization of resources of all kinds, an increasing ‘monetization’ is underway of hard power for national economic benefit. This development draws on a long intellectual tradition and enduring perceptions of vulnerability, but with new technological twists. What are the contours of this renaissance in economic warfare, and what are the possible consequences? |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:pp_04-26 |
| By: | Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou (Department of Economics, University of Piraeus); Athanasios Triantafyllou (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty by explicitly accounting for comovement across commodity markets. Using quarterly realized volatilities of major agricultural, metals, and energy commodity prices, we estimate a hierarchical dynamic factor model that decomposes uncertainty into a global component, common to all commodities, and group-specific components capturing sectoral uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty factors are then embedded into country-specific Structural VAR models to assess the dynamic macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks through impulse response functions. We focus in particular on business investment and exports across a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Our results show that a global commodity price uncertainty shock generates sizable and persistent recessionary effects on investment and trade worldwide. Benchmark comparisons indicate that this global commodity uncertainty shock produces larger and more persistent macroeconomic contractions than standard uncertainty measures. Importantly, we show that, once global uncertainty is accounted for, commodity-specific uncertainty shocks exhibit differentiated effects. Increases in agricultural and metals price uncertainty lead to contractionary outcomes, whereas energy-specific uncertainty shocks generate positive short-run responses in investment and exports. These findings provide new empirical evidence that oil price uncertainty can be expansionary when it reflects sector-specific dynamics rather than global demand uncertainty. Overall, our framework offers a novel way to disentangle "bad" and "good" commodity price uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, uncertainty shocks, comovement, recessionary effects, positive macroeconomic impact |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05607366 |
| By: | Madjid Eshaghi Gordji; Mohamad Ali Berahman |
| Abstract: | Strategic competitions in the real world, from wars to geopolitical rivalries, often involve coalitions competing against rival groups. These contests are not simple interactions between unified entities, but multilayered processes in which coalitions face external competition while dealing with internal conflicts over resources and strategy. Existing game-theoretic models typically treat inter-coalition rivalry and intra-coalition competition separately. This paper introduces the Compound Coalition-Attrition Game (CCAG), a unified framework that integrates a war of attrition between coalitions with a simultaneous war of attrition within each coalition. In this model, the endurance of a coalition in external competition is determined by the strategic choices of its members, who compete internally for shares of the outcome. We prove the nonexistence of pure-strategy equilibria and characterize the unique mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium. The analysis reveals feedback effects: external competition intensifies internal conflict, while internal discord weakens external performance. A case study compares traditional commodity markets, including gold, copper, and silver, with cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, using data from 2018 to 2023 in a simulation framework. The results demonstrate applicability in industrial strategy, corporate decision-making, and geopolitical competition. The CCAG framework provides a tool for analysing complex strategic environments. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.02354 |
| By: | Manaysay, Ferth Vandensteen |
| Abstract: | This article explores the policy narratives that shape the development and early implementation of extended producer responsibility (EPR) regulations in the Philippines and Vietnam, with particular attention to their role in circular economy (CE) transitions for plastics. Using the Narrative Policy Framework, it examines how stakeholders articulate narratives of environmental protection, resource efficiency, economic competitiveness, and social inclusion. Based on interviews and documentary analysis, it finds that EPR is widely framed as a vehicle for CE principles, but narratives diverge in scope and emphasis across the two cases. These differences reflect variation in institutional capacity, stakeholder influence, and the role of informal actors. The findings point to the need for a more holistic and inclusive approach to EPR, grounded in proactive policymaking and stronger attention to social equity. The article contributes to debates on environmental governance in developing countries by showing how policy narratives shape the trajectories of CE transitions. |
| Keywords: | circular economy; extended producer responsibility; Narrative Policy Framework; Philippines; plastics; Vietnam |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138039 |
| By: | Zachariadis, Theodoros; Giannakis, Elias |
| Abstract: | Instability in global energy supply and fluctuating international oil and gas prices push European countries to reduce fuel import dependency through energy saving measures and faster deployment of renewable energy. Calculating the fuel import bill, as usually done to illustrate the impact of the continent’s energy dependency, offers only a partial picture of the challenge. This paper applies an economy-wide assessment for Cyprus, a country which greatly relies on imported fossil fuels but has made some progress towards decarbonisation. We combine energy, economic and trade statistics with technical calculations and find that renewables deployed in the last decade have already today contributed to very substantial net benefits of 469 million Euros at 2023 prices, leading to a benefit-cost ratio ranging between 11 and 19. Input-output modelling shows that economy-wide benefits have led to a cumulative additional value added of the order of 1.4 billion Euros’2023 during the decade 2015-2024, with a 0.5-1% GDP increase per year thanks to renewables investments and avoided fossil fuel imports. The approach presented here minimises the uncertainties and assumptions that are necessary to run more sophisticated economic models and can offer credible insights on the economic dividends of decarbonisation policies in any country, contributing also to improved energy security. |
| Keywords: | decarbonisation; energy policy; energy security; input-output analysis; renewable energy; trade balance |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138257 |
| By: | Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile; Lappe, Marie-Sophie; Manu, Ana-Simona; Rößler, Denise; Schupp, Fabian; Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market. JEL Classification: C50, C54, E44, Q43 |
| Keywords: | demand shocks, gas price, inflation-linked swaps, local projections, supply shocks |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263227 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Climate policy is increasingly reshaping the conditions under which firms participate in international markets. As some jurisdictions introduce carbon border adjustments, lifecycle emissions standards, and supply-chain traceability requirements, market access is starting to be made conditional on verifiable characteristics of production processes, such as carbon intensity, embedded emissions, and input sourcing, rather than solely on product characteristics or prices. This paper examines how these emerging climate-linked measures operate as eligibility regimes that require firms to measure, document, and verify embedded emissions and supply-chain attributes, using standardized methodologies. To clarify the economic logic of these mechanisms, the paper first makes a functional comparison with rules of origin, highlighting common features related to eligibility criteria, documentation, and supply-chain tracing. It then analyzes the European Union Batteries Regulation, which links market participation to lifecycle carbon-footprint disclosure and traceability, and the United States Inflation Reduction Act, which aimed to reshape supply chains through localization incentives and manufacturing subsidies. The paper finally examines the strategic responses available to economies outside the main standard-setting blocs, including regulatory alignment, dual compliance across regulatory regimes, and market reorientation toward less-demanding jurisdictions. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:pp_11-26 |
| By: | Maria Alsina-Pujols; Isabel Hovdahl |
| Abstract: | We study how complementarity reshapes innovation incentives and the effectiveness of policies aimed at directing technological transitions. By incorporating energy storage into a macro-climate model, we show that when this enabling technology lags behind renewables, advances in renewable technology can paradoxically reduce incentives for clean innovation. We analytically characterize this novel indirect path dependency effect, which provides a new explanation for the post-2010 collapse in renewable patenting. Calibrated to the U.S. economy, we find that omitting storage overestimates climate policy effectiveness, optimal policy should prioritize storage over renewables, and halving the storage productivity gap increases annual welfare by 1%. |
| Keywords: | directed technical change, energy storage, climate policy, path dependency, energy transition |
| JEL: | O33 O44 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12664 |
| By: | Jackson, James; Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | As China increasingly leads the world in green industries, the country is a critical case for the debate on climate change in political economy. While climate change is now less of a blind spot than previously, the debate is obstructed by an inadequate grasp of the complexities of China, stemming from the disciplinary isolation of ‘China studies’ and the political isolation of the country itself. In this commentary, we address this problem by presenting a structured approach to understanding the case of China. We distill insights from different literature to offer an account of the political economy of China’s green transition, centering on three key insights. As umbrella terms that work as shorthands for summarizing the three literatures, we propose that China can be understood as: (1) ‘green authoritarianism’ – a political model that conceptualizes the political motives and processes underlying China’s climate governance. (2) ‘green state-steering’ - central-local-private relations that combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to advance climate priorities. (3) ‘green economic planning’ - an approach to industrial policy, such as the ‘Made In China 2025 Strategy’, that guides and organizes climate governance over time. Our intention is that these insights can help connect the scholarship on China with the scholarship on the political economy of climate change by facilitating non-China specialists in both drawing from and relating their work to the country. |
| Keywords: | China; climate change; Authoritarianism; Economic planning; green transition; Political economy |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138302 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter |
| Abstract: | The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. |
| Keywords: | oil |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102957 |