|
on Mining |
| By: | Saadaoui, Jamel (University Paris 8, IEE, LED, Saint-Denis, Franc); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global critical-mineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc, is overwhelmingly concentrated in China. Using monthly data from 1995–2025 and a structural VAR-local projection framework, we estimate the dynamic effects of exogenous shocks to the US-China Political Relations Index (PRI) on mineral markets. We find that geopolitical deterioration systematically induces significant precautionary stockpiling. We then construct a multidimensional friend-shoring index incorporating reserves, alignment, regime type and distance, showing that only a narrow set of United States partners, primarily Australia and Canada, offer feasible pathways for refining diversification. The policy recommendation stemming from our findings is that the United States should make strategic stockpiling of refined critical minerals, rather than raw ores, the centerpiece of its strategy to build supply chain resilience, while negotiating long-term bilateral packages for the supply of refined critical minerals with Australia and Canada. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics; Critical Minerals; Macroeconomics; economics; geopolitical risk; friend-shoring; |
| JEL: | Q34 Q37 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:30907385 |
| By: | Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Whitlock, Zach; Kota, Ambarish; DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements, are vital components of defense, energy, and transportation technologies. As demand for these technologies and their minerals grows, the geographic reality of where they are extracted, processed, and manufactured has drawn increasing attention. Though the United States has some mineral reserves and strategic industrial policies for certain base metals, its participation in the mineral supply chain has declined over the past century, and market concentration in foreign supply has increased concerns about exposure to supply disruptions.In response, recent administrations have established priorities around critical minerals and taken steps to mitigate supply risk, with the current administration taking a much more active role in advancing its critical minerals policy goals, including unprecedented investments in individual critical mineral mining and refining projects.We present new data that highlight the market and economic challenges to onshoring the critical mineral supply chain, noting the large technical, geographic, and economic differences across minerals. We then discuss workforce, infrastructure, and social license challenges to increasing domestic production, along with the various federal efforts to ensure secure access to mineral supply. Finally, we present a framework for how investments can be prioritized to maximize the efficacy of federal expenditures and reduce supply risk and how policies can be evaluated in their support of these efforts. We conclude by identifying research gaps and proposing directions for future work to support evidence based industrial policy and improve the resilience, competitiveness, and social legitimacy of the federal critical minerals strategy. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-08 |
| By: | Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | economics; finance; energy economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:30907352 |
| By: | Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | This report presents an overview of the supply chains of key EV battery critical minerals by examining the electric battery industry of China. It highlights the potential supply chain risks and discusses options to minimize these risks. It then provides several policy recommendations for relevant governments. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle industry, EV batteries, battery critical minerals, supply chains |
| JEL: | F13 L62 O25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:26-03 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Europe's green transition risks strategic fragility. Critical material dependencies, geopolitical tensions, and industrial limits could undermine climate ambitions and autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Constraints, Green supply chain, Vulnerability, Europe |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05608270 |
| By: | Marcello Galuzzo |
| Abstract: | This research paper seeks to assess the extent to which the recently signed Advanced Framework Agreement between the European Union and Chile contributes to the strategic autonomy of the EU in the field of critical raw materials. To this end, the first step of the analysis consisted in working on the concept of strategic autonomy as it has been previously employed in different contexts, in order to attempt an articulated definition of the same. This resulted in a formulation comprehensive of three dimensions (access to raw materials, diversification of supply chains, and choice of a qualified partner), corresponding to a set of requirements to be ideally fulfilled by the Agreement. Each of the above dimensions was subsequently evaluated on the basis of a qualitative content examination of the provisions of the Agreement, reliable media reports, academic literature, and data from relevant statistics on democracy, labour rights and environmental standards, issued by authoritative agencies. In the final sections, the outcome of the assessment (incomplete contribution of the Agreement’s to EU’s strategic autonomy, owing to Chile’s partially inadequate environmental policies) is expounded, put into context and commented in detail. |
| Keywords: | political science; strategic autonomy; chile; advanced framework agreement; european union |
| Date: | 2025–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:eifxxx:p0051 |
| By: | Samuel H. Ward; Richard J. Pearson; Thomas B. Scott; Niek J. Lopes Cardozo |
| Abstract: | The impact of lithium isotopic enrichment on the global deployment of nuclear fusion energy is analysed. Lithium - the 6Li isotope in particular - is essentially one of two elemental fuels required by fusion reactors for tritium breeding. Whilst variable consumption of lithium is low enough to present negligible cost, it is instead the large stored inventory volume (50-100 tonnes) and its required enrichment that compound to significantly drive capital costs. These costs are driven by the inefficiency of the tritium breeding process, making this challenge fundamental to almost all fusion power plant concepts. Financing would further compound these effects, making lithium fusion fuels more akin to an upfront capital expenditure than operational expenditure. Other potential barriers to fusion deployment created by lithium are also discussed: enrichment technologies of today are shown to be too expensive, not scalable, and environmentally risky, and highly enriched 6Li is a controlled substance. Mitigating actions include: developing alternative enrichment technologies that are affordable, scalable, and do not rely on mercury; incorporating lithium enrichment as an explicit cost driver in reactor design processes, producing more compact reactors with smaller lithium inventories; establishing distinct enrichment levels to enable supply chain monitoring for misuse; and the most radical solution: breeding blankets that use natural, unenriched lithium. These actions may impact tritium breeding capabilities, which calls for an urgent re-assessment of the tritium breeding paradigm. Whatever solution is sought, lithium supply is a mission-critical issue that needs urgently addressing. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.04707 |
| By: | Ghoshray, Atanu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the price linkages between major exporting countries of wheat, whereby the actions of profit-seeking exporters is expected to form a long-run equilibrium so that the price differences should be no more than the costs of spatial arbitrage. This mechanism is akin to the Law of One Price (LOP hereafter). The global wheat market is an interesting case as it is characterized by market concentration where only a handful of countries account for more than two-thirds of the total wheat exports, along with the fact that wheat as a commodity has different end uses based on its intrinsic characteristics, thereby making it a differentiated product. Furthermore, the wheat export market has undergone structural change over the last decade, such as the signing of new trade agreements, the changing composition of wheat sellers and buyers, the dismantling of single desk monopoly boards, climate change and war. This paper contributes by testing for the LOP that allows for several structural shifts in prices over time, by making use of a novel multivariate flexible fourier form procedure due to Pascalau et al. (2022). We also test for price leadership and use simulations to trace out the response of individual country export prices to competing country price shocks. The empirical results contribute to our understanding of the structure of the world wheat export market. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397906 |
| By: | Pavel Kiparisov; Christian Folberth |
| Abstract: | Global food security depends on tightly coupled international supply chains including natural gas, mineral fertilizers, and staple crops. Earlier research has examined potential consequences of disruptions in each of these domains separately but not from a systemic perspective. Here we integrate bilateral trade in natural gas, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, and eleven staple crops accounting for approximately 70% of plant-based calories into a cascading-impact model spanning 208 countries, 20 geopolitical blocs, and the period 1992-2023. Under complete trade isolation, up to 22% of global caloric consumption would be lost, with a peak in the most recent evaluated years. Structural vulnerabilities vary greatly. Regions largely lacking some parts of the supply chain face near-total crop supply collapse, while few countries can cover the whole nexus through domestic resource endowments and production capacities. Temporal trends highlight a substantial increase in vulnerability globally, most prominently in the EU with a near two-fold increase since the 1990s. Market power is most concentrated and most volatile in the upstream gas and mineral-fertilizer layers, from which shocks propagate downstream. Food stocks provide only limited resilience with half of humanity living in countries disposing of stock lasting less than three months. Our results identify the upstream supply chains as the structural bottlenecks of the global agrifood system and propose leverage points to enhance resilience. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.06411 |
| By: | Ran Huang |
| Abstract: | The original SCR theory proposed that inflation has two distinct expressions: circulation inflation, measured by rising transaction prices, and reservation inflation, measured by the rising real weight of monetary symbols, debt contracts, reserve claims, and other nominal stores of value relative to physical goods. A companion Japan paper tested one side of this theory by showing that, after money entered a reserve-dominant phase, monetary-base expansion no longer translated strongly into consumer-price inflation. This paper tests the other side of SCR: whether reservation inflation can arise when monetary issuance is constrained and circulation inflation is absent. The classical gold-standard deflation of 1873-1896 provides a clean historical setting. Using long-run British retail price data and the Minneapolis Fed historical U.S. CPI series, I show that the price level declined in both economies. Between 1873 and 1896, Britain's price index fell from 18.0 to 14.7, while the U.S. historical CPI fell from 36.0 to 25.0. Yet this deflation mechanically increased the real value of fixed nominal claims. A fixed-claim reservation index rose by 22.4% in Britain and 44.0% in the United States. Thus, the episode combines negative circulation inflation with positive reservation inflation. The result suggests that hard money does not abolish inflationary pressure in the SCR sense; it changes its domain of expression. Together with the Japan case, this paper supports a phase-dependent view of inflation in which CPI is only one observable expression of the monetary-material asymmetry. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26248 |