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on Mining |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, graphite and rare earth elements are poised to play an increasingly important role in environmental sustainability, emerging technology and defense applications. Innovation can play a vital role in reducing primary demand for them while reducing associated supply chain risks and providing benefits for the environment and human health. This paper examines the intersection of technological innovation, critical raw materials and economic policy. It draws on a review of academic and non-academic literature to analyse the key drivers of innovation in the critical raw material supply chain, as well as how innovation might help drive the reforms needed to establish more secure supply networks and sustainable business practices. It then develops a conceptual framework for categorising innovation across the value chain and types of innovations before assessing emerging policy challenges and opportunities for governments. |
| Keywords: | Batteries, Critical materials, Critical mineral, Critical raw material, Innovation, Materials security, Mining, Rare earth elements, Resource scarcity, Supply chain |
| JEL: | O30 Q55 Q58 O38 |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:273-en |
| By: | Robert Botha |
| Abstract: | Argues that South Africa's mining sector has significant untapped potential. The paper shows that policy uncertainty, regulatory bottlenecks and administrative inefficiencies—not resource depletion—are the key constraints preventing the sector from expanding. |
| Keywords: | mining, South Africa, policy uncertainty, regulatory reform |
| JEL: | L72 O55 Q38 |
| Date: | 2026–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202602 |
| By: | Mr. Christian Bogmans; Francis Cuadros-Bloch; Jean-Marc Natal; Andrea Paloschi |
| Abstract: | Recent supply shortages have intensified concerns about supply chain bottlenecks, prompting policymakers to adopt industrial policies to promote reshoring and friendshoring. Nowhere are these concerns more evident than in rare earth element (REE) markets, where supply chains are highly concentrated across stages, particularly refining. This paper quantifies the costs of reducing supply chain concentration using a dynamic global trade model calibrated with detailed market, industry and geological data. In the model, upstream (mining) and downstream (refining) production is slow-moving and determined by investment in capacity (CAPEX). We evaluate how different policies can raise U.S. downstream REE self-sufficiency from 10 to 25% by 2035, comparing CAPEX subsidies and price floors under unilateral and coordination action among importers. The fiscal cost of downstream unilateral CAPEX subsidies reaches 141% of the annual U.S. REE market (about $1.2 billion) by 2035, and falls to 96% under coordinated action. Downstream price floor policies are equally effective, but more fiscally inefficient. Despite their size relative to the market, absolute fiscal costs are contained, suggesting that de-risking REE supply chains is fiscally feasible. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Policy; Trade Restrictions; Rare Earths; Global Supply Chains |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/072 |
| By: | Usama Abdul Rauf (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Batoora Achakzai (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been credited as the biggest infrastructure project in Pakistan, and it has created significant jobs in the country and yet, despite the presence of Gwadar Port and other portions of the Western Route, Balochistan has received only a small share of the economic and employment gains. The current evidence that is available indicates that even though Pakistani workers constitute the majority of the workforce in CPEC projects, local involvement in Balochistan is limited to low-skilled and informal employment while skilled and technical roles are mostly occupied by non-local and foreign workers. The gradual nature of the operationalization of Special Economic Zones additionally constrains local consumption of labor. With the approved SEZs, few of them have gone past the planning stage and industrialization and employment are minimal, especially in Balochistan. The critical limitation is the harsh and multi-sectoral skills shortage in the province, and a lack of skilled workers in mining, construction, port operations, energy, and industrial trades, in addition to poor TVET institutions, low enrollment, low female participation, and industry connections. The skills gap is not limited to CPEC-related industries; it is all-encompassing, in the agricultural sector, the water sector, renewable energy, minerals, and even health, which means that the problem of Balochistan is not project-specific, but structural and indicative of a larger problem in the human capital ecosystem. In conclusion, the study finds that CPEC presents opportunities, but Balochistan is not adequately positioned to take advantage. Devoid of focused, industry-oriented human capital, enhanced TVET, and local-hiring, the province will continue to be a transit region, and not an active recipient of national development, enhancing regional inequalities and restricting the comprehensive influence of CPEC. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:142 |
| By: | Lipman, Timothy |
| Abstract: | Heavy-duty transportation modes including trucks, buses, and seaport and airport equipment are relatively hard to decarbonize because of their demanding performance requirements and other factors. The California Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality calls for carbon-neutral transportation across all modes by 2045, with different sectors reaching 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by earlier dates, depending on the type of vehicle (see EO N-79-20). For public transit buses, the state’s Innovative Clean Transit rule requires both large and small transit agencies to cease purchasing combustion engine buses in 2029 in favor of zero-emission (ZE) technologies, with a phased approach that has already commenced. However, for trucks, achieving the transition to ZEVs is more problematic as the state’s Advanced Clean Fleets rule is only applicable to government fleets at present, and the Clean Truck Partnership memorandum of understanding with truck manufacturers is effectively on hold pending legal actions. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt20m3j8w1 |
| By: | Nelson, David (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | The global energy supply industry has experienced transitions since energy resources became an important driver of economic growth during the industrial revolution. Several of these transitions have occurred in the last 60 years since oil replaced coal as the largest source of energy for the global economy. For more than a hundred years, each transition has led to investment, growth, and significant development of the economy, including the move from traditional biomass to coal, from coal to oil, from oil to increased electrification and a more diversified supply of energy resources, and now from fossil fuels to low carbon energy resources. The current climate and energy transition holds the promise of more potential economic development and growth. Yet this version differs from previous transitions in at least three important ways: (1) Climate Change. Whereas earlier transitions were primarily driven by economic growth and then energy security, the scientific consensus regarding climate change, and the widespread understanding of the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, has added a third driver that is altering the trajectory of the next transition while accelerating its pace. (2) Breadth of the transition. While energy has been central to the economy for over a century, energy's role in the economy continues to expand, including to power the growth of the information economy and globalization. Climate concerns also drive simultaneous transitions in sectors such steel, cement, chemicals, agriculture, forestry, and land use that produce their own emissions, and are intertwined with energy demand and supply. (3) Growth and replacement. Whereas previous energy transitions resulted primarily from the emergence of new energy resources to meet growing sources of energy demand, in the current transition, there is also existing energy demand that is currently being met by resources that are being phased out. If that energy cannot be replaced in time, parts of the economy may lack energy resources. The phasing out of existing resources, including repurposing or retiring the infrastructure and market systems developed to support those resources, adds an element of potential mismatch in timing that has the potential to amplify uncertainty and risk. This mismatch – often characterized as a disorderly transition - could lead to price spikes, shortages, rationing or alternatively excess capacity, price crashes and defaults. Shortages or defaults might then feed through the supply chain, causing inflation or recession across the economy. The economic impact of this disorder could be several times greater than any negative economic impact of the transition itself. Understanding the implications disorderly transitions is critical to minimizing the macroeconomic impact of disorder. In this paper, we will look at the issues facing the scenario-based tools currently available to study transitions and measure the impact of disorder and uncertainty. We will then identify the sources of potential disorder as a first step in defining disorder in a fashion that can be analysed and managed more usefully and appropriately. We then propose a framework for building assessment and management tools for transition management. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-10-b |
| By: | Mr. Christian Bogmans; Maximiliano Jerez-Osses; Jorge Miranda-Pinto; Jean-Marc Natal |
| Abstract: | Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical inputs in high‑tech manufacturing. Following China’s 2025 export licensing requirements on REEs and permanent magnets, concerns have risen about the macroeconomic consequences of supply disruptions in import‑dependent economies. Standard assessments based on “value added at risk” (VAAR) ignore production network linkages and input reallocation. We develop a small open economy model with imported REEs and production networks, calibrated using an REE‑augmented input–output table from USGS data. Applying the model to the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and India, we find substantial cross‑country heterogeneity in response to an 80% reduction in REEs supply. The most exposed economies are Japan, U.S. and Germany. Under low substitution elasticities (horizons under one year), these economies experience a GDP loss of 1.8, 1.5, and 1.2 percent, respectively. These differences reflect heterogeneity in sectoral composition, factor shares, and the strength of forward linkages of REE-intensive sectors. Under higher elasticities (longer horizons), aggregate losses become negligible. |
| Keywords: | Production Networks; Commodity Prices; Network-Adjusted Value- Added Share; Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/073 |
| By: | Arita, Shawn; Chakravorty, Rwit; Kim, Jiyeon; Wang, Ming; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This working paper documents the NDSU-ARPC Global Fertilizer Model, a hybrid structural vector autoregression–partial equilibrium (SVAR–PE) framework developed to project fertilizer price dynamics under short-term supply disruptions. The model integrates country-specific affordability elasticities estimated from 25 years of bilateral trade data, an Engle–Granger error-correction mechanism governing price adjustment, and multi-channel disruption transmission including LNG feedstock, sulfur supply, and natural gas cost-push effects. The framework is applied to the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption under three reopening scenarios. Results indicate substantial price volatility and elevated fertilizer costs, with asymmetric impacts on agricultural producers due to rising input prices without corresponding increases in crop revenues. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwo:396443 |