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on Mining |
| By: | Dongsoo Kim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | During the previous era of rapid globalization and relatively free trade, the primary goal of establishing global supply chains was to minimize costs and leverage comparative advantages. But as global geopolitical competition has intensified, major governments have erected trade barriers to shield their domestic industries. Export controls and other protectionist measures have led private and public actors alike to work to stabilize and de-risk their supply chains. Nowhere is this more evident than in the supply chain for critical mineral resources (CMR), which collectively represent the essential inputs in electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) batteries. The geopolitical climate is one of two major risks in CMR supply chains. The other is the overconcentration of CMR mining and processing in a handful of countries. This risk has led governments to pursue international cooperation with resource-rich developing countries such as Indonesia and Viet Nam. But many resource-rich countries often lack sufficient capacity to explore, mine, and refine enough CMR to meet global demand. With this in mind, this report investigates the current state of the CMR supply chains. Based on the results of the analysis, it proposes a suite of Executive Summary12 Cooperation for Establishing Critical Minerals Industrial Ecology in ASEAN sustainable CMR supply chain and industrial development cooperation measures targeting partnerships between advanced manufacturing countries and resource-rich developing countries. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals; critical minerals resources; CMR; ASEAN; South Korea; supply chains; batteries; battery industry; nickel; rare earth elements; REEs; mining; rare earths; Indonesia; development coop |
| JEL: | L72 L78 L61 L65 L52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietop:022363 |
| By: | Dugoua, Eugenie; Noailly, Joelle |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns and mechanisms of global clean technology diffusion over the last two decades. We document four stylized facts: uneven sectoral progress favoring power and light transport; China’s dominance in innovation and manufacturing; the role of modularity in driving cost declines; and limited adoption in developing economies. Through case studies of solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, we analyze how policy and infrastructure enable scale. Finally, we assess emerging challenges for the next phase of diffusion, including critical mineral constraints, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | clean technology diffusion; climate change mitigation; renewable energy; industrial policy; solar photovoltaics; electric vehicles; hydrogen |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 O20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137498 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a statistical analysis of the global database of Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide (VMS) mineral deposits. The paper shows the joint and partial probability distributions for copper equivalent grade and total tonnage based on current metals prices for copper, zinc, lead, and gold. The article develops a new method using the joint distribution to identify the set of quantile values for grade and tonnage that have approximately 50% probability; this set of quantile values represents the median grade-tonnage curve for VMS deposits around the world. The article also shows how to analyze individual projects in comparison with the global database. For example, the size of the Shamlugskoe mine in Armenia is ranked according to the global database. For another example, a model of the exploration project called Mount Sicker is presented and compared to nearby projects that are in the global database. |
| Keywords: | Natural Resources, Mining, Copper, Zinc, Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide, Metals Grade, Deposit Tonnage, Grade-Tonnage Curve, Probability Distribution, Median Path, Statistical Analysis, Simulation, Quantile |
| JEL: | A1 A19 B5 B59 C0 C02 C1 C14 C15 C18 C4 C40 C6 C63 C69 C8 C81 D2 D8 D81 G1 G17 G3 G31 H2 H25 K2 K23 L2 L5 L7 L72 Q3 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127617 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin (Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Paolo Castelnovo (Department of Economics, University of Insubria and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Federico Fabio Frattini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Francesco Vona (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel text-based approach to identify CRM-saving innovation using patent data and studies how mineral price signals shape the direction of technological change. Using patent data from 1978–2020, we distinguish technologies that rely on CRMs from those that explicitly aim to reduce their use through efficiency improvements, substitution, or recycling. We provide evidence consistent with the induced-innovation hypothesis: higher mineral prices reallocate inventive effort toward CRM-saving technologies, while having little effect on CRM-reliant innovation. The response strengthens over time and is especially pronounced for battery minerals and rare earth elements. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and are reinforced by complementary identification strategies, including a falsification test and the use of plausibly exogenous supply-side price variation. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition, Critical Raw materials, Patents |
| JEL: | C55 O31 O33 Q55 L72 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.05 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This article presents a framework for evaluating the economic implications of different permitting decisions for mining exploration projects based on the legal framework for British Columbia. The article builds models for different types of exploration permits, together with budgets and types of geological information that each proposed exploration strategy would generate. One example is a mechanical trenching permit that allows 1, 000 tonnes to be removed per year. If the trenching focuses on ultra-high-grade ore, then it may have a gross metal value greater than $1 million per year. The article describes how this gross metal value may be split between costs and revenues, depending on whether the material is sold as raw ore, concentrates, or refined metal. The second example is based on a mineral claim that covers 60 hectares and includes two abandoned mine tailings sites 1 kilometre apart with a mineralized fault running between them. The article describes two strategies to clean up these abandoned tailings based on an unlimited budget and a near-zero budget. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Tailings, Abandoned Mine, Environmental, Copper, Zinc, BC, Canada |
| JEL: | B5 C6 C8 C81 D2 D7 E0 E01 F3 G1 G17 H1 H5 H54 H57 K2 K23 L32 L5 L7 L72 N5 O1 O13 O2 P1 Q3 Q33 Q5 Y1 |
| Date: | 2025–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127460 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | Mining is a global industry where jurisdictions are endowed with different amounts of natural resources and then create institutional frameworks to regulate the extraction of their endowment by local or global entities. As metal prices reach all-time highs, there is more competition than ever among different jurisdictions to attract global investment and encourage local business development based on all aspects of mining. However, there is also an increase in the prevalence of international legal frameworks to create minimum standards for mining. For example, the province of British Columbia in Canada created a new law in 2019 that was used by the courts in 2023 to force the executive branch to make changes that the legislative branch was already working on to roll out in 2027. This article details the ongoing story of BC, where different branches of government interact with each other in new ways based on provincial laws that implement an international framework. |
| Keywords: | Mining, BC, Canada, First Nations, Indigenous Peoples, United Nations, Taxes, Law, Institutions |
| JEL: | B5 B52 D3 D7 D79 E6 E65 F2 F5 F53 G3 G38 H1 H13 H2 H25 H5 H7 K0 K2 K23 K3 L3 L32 L5 L51 L6 L61 L7 L72 N5 O1 O13 O2 P1 Q3 Q32 Q33 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127495 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a statistical analysis of the historical data for global copper prices from the World Bank for the period from 1960 to 2025. This paper presents methods and results for several different approaches. The paper uses time-lag diagrams to show price transition periods as a feature of chaos theory established in other research. The paper also shows methods for using percentile rankings along different dimensions—for example, the years where the copper price increased the most. The paper also shows pathwise data analysis methods that use overlapping data samples to generate rankings about the data on a monthly basis, compared with an ensemble of values from all other paths in the dataset. For example, what did the all-time best five years in the copper markets look like based on the trailing-twelve-month price increase? The paper discusses how these methods can be used to make predictions and how the methods can be used for time series of other base metals, like zinc, or unrelated economic statistical time series. |
| Keywords: | Statistics, Time Series, Methods, Copper, Mining, Finance, World Bank, Exploratory Data Analysis, 1960-2025, Global |
| JEL: | A1 A19 B59 C0 C02 C1 C14 C15 C18 C19 C4 C40 C6 C63 C69 C8 C81 D2 G1 G10 G17 G19 K2 K23 L2 L5 L7 L72 Q3 Q31 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 Y10 |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127683 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This article describes a quasi-experiment where a new CEO enters a mining exploration shell company called Seabridge Resources Inc., later called Seabridge Gold Inc. In 1998, Seabridge had a $12 million accumulated deficit and $1, 000 cash. In 1999, it had Mr. Rudi Fronk as Chairman, President, and CEO. Mr. Fronk is still CEO now, twenty-five years later, and the company has a $4 billion market capitalization. What were the principles of his leadership that helped drive the success of the company over the long term? It is possible to measure the impact of Rudi’s leadership on the company in several ways. As a simple example, we can calculate the statistics for the number of press releases before and after he became CEO. Or we can measure the performance over time as revealed by financial statements, as in Bell and Braun (2025). Instead, this article focuses on the narrative approach as revealed by the continuous disclosure record in his first year on the job. The results highlight key ingredients for success in terms of people, ideas, and things as described by Georges Doriot. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Gold, Inflation, Monetary, Business, Strategy, Canada, USA, Seabridge Gold, Grassy Mountain, KSM, Hog Ranch, Georges Doriot |
| JEL: | B5 C6 C8 C81 C9 D2 D7 E0 G1 G17 H1 H5 H54 K2 K23 L5 L7 L72 N5 O1 O13 O2 P1 Q3 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127559 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Luca Rossini (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Alessandra Testa (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified shock using a two-step approach based on country-level models for major copper-importing and exporting economies. We find that copper supply shocks raise producer prices and depress industrial activity in importing economies, while exporters benefit from higher world prices through improved terms of trade. Importer-exporter status alone is insufficient to characterize exposure: heterogeneity in responses reflects differences in manufacturing copper intensity and buffering capacity through secondary copper production. |
| Keywords: | Copper, Supply shocks, Structural VAR, Narrative identification, Macroeconomic effects |
| JEL: | C32 E00 Q4 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.02 |
| By: | Francesco Crespi; Nicolò Geri; Dario Guarascio; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between technological capabilities, import dependency, and environmental policies, focusing on the lithium-ion battery supply chain (LBSC) – a critical sector for the net-zero transition. We contribute to the growing literature on the drivers and barriers to accelerating the transition in the following ways. First, we develop an original analytical framework that integrates two recent streams of literature – one focusing on the acceleration of the green transition and the other on structural dependencies and technological sovereignty – to examine potential trade-offs between these objectives. Second, we develop a strategic intelligence analysis of the LBSC allowing to quantify import dependencies and technological capacity gaps at a highly granular product/technology level. This allows to identify critical products and supply chain stages where policy action is needed to avoid the emergence of bottlenecks to the green transition. Third, we examine how technological capabilities influence import dependency, showing under what conditions technological upgrading strengthens competitive positions and mitigates dependency. Finally, we analyse how environmental policy stringency relates to import dependency, assessing whether and in which circumstances environmental goals may conflict with technological sovereignty and strategic autonomy ones. Our findings suggest that technological upgrading can reduce dependencies without compromising environmental goals so that the presumed trade-off between the net-zero transition and structural dependencies does not necessarily hold. In contrast, a welldesigned policy mix, aligning environmental objectives with targeted innovation and industrial policies, can enhance both resilience and the acceleration towards the net-zero transition. |
| Keywords: | Strategic autonomy; Technological capabilities; Net-zero transition; Environmental policy; Lithium-ion batteries; Technological sovereignty |
| JEL: | Q55 O38 Q58 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp276 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Amin, Ali; Cho, Hayeon; Scheer, Antonina |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre’s Carbon Performance assessments to date have been predominantly based on the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA). The SDA translates greenhouse gas emissions targets made at the international level (e.g. under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement) into appropriate benchmarks, against which the performance of individual companies can be compared. The SDA recognises that different sectors of the economy (e.g. oil and gas production, electricity generation, and automobile manufacturing) face different challenges arising from the low-carbon transition, including where emissions are concentrated in the value chain and how costly it is to reduce emissions. Other approaches to translating international emissions targets into company benchmarks have applied the same decarbonisation pathway to all sectors, regardless of these differences. Such approaches may result in suboptimal insights, as not all sectors have the same emissions profiles or face the same challenges: some sectors may be capable of faster decarbonisation, while others require more time and resources. Therefore, the SDA takes a sector-by-sector approach, comparing companies within each sector against each other and against sector-specific benchmarks, which establish the performance of an average company that is aligned with international emissions targets. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137446 |