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on Mining |
| By: | Wang, Yitian; Vespignani, Joaquin; Smyth, Russell |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | Critical Mineral, EV Battery, Stockpiling, Recycling |
| JEL: | O13 Q34 Q38 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127186 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | This policy brief examines what the 2025–2026 period reveals about the future of global energy risk and the energy transition. After the shocks of 2021–2023, 2025 brought broad price easing: oil and coal prices declined as supply growth outpaced demand, and the World Bank projects further declines in the global energy price index in 2026, offering short-term relief for energy-importing economies. The brief argues, however, that the macroeconomic relevance of energy entering 2026 is no longer defined primarily by commodity price levels, but by the distribution of risks and by the capacity of energy systems—grids, flexibility resources, supply chains, and investment frameworks—to absorb shocks and deliver reliable power. It identifies four structural forces shaping 2026 and beyond: artificial intelligence-related demand growth, grid congestion and resilience constraints, critical mineral concentration, and a capital-rich but execution-constrained investment environment. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that energy risk is increasingly shifting toward infrastructure and supply-chain bottlenecks, with widening asymmetries across regions, particularly for emerging and developing economies. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb02_26 |
| By: | Antoine Dechezleprêtre (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adrien Fabre (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]); Tobias Kruse (OCDE / OECD - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development); Bluebery Planterose (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Ana Sanchez Chico (OCDE / OECD - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development); Stefanie Stantcheva (Department of Economics, Harvard University - Harvard University, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores global perceptions and understanding of climate change and policies, examining factors that influence support for climate action and the impact of different types of information. We conduct large-scale surveys with 40, 000 respondents from 20 countries, providing new international data on attitudes toward climate change and respondents' socioeconomic backgrounds and lifestyles. We identify three key perceptions affecting policy support: perceived effectiveness of policies in reducing emissions, their impact on low-income households, and their effect on respondents' households (self-interest). Educational videos clarifying policy mechanisms increase support for climate policies; those merely highlighting climate change's impacts do not. (JEL C83, D83, D91, Q54, Q58) |
| Keywords: | experiment, green energy, carbon tax, climate policies, Climate change |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05459604 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | As governments around the world pursue policies to incentivize the construction of new mining projects, they need to recognize that private industry today is not pursuing opportunities at abandoned old mines. Government leadership could increase remediation of old mines by changing the rules, a move that would require coordination across diverse stakeholders. Fixing these old problems could help reduce unresolved sources of pollution and public perception that mining is environmentally irresponsible. This paper discusses fundamental aspects of abandoned mines and compares government policies by examining two small Canadian mining exploration companies advancing remediation projects in Italy and Canada. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Pollution, Environment, Remediation, Canada, Italy, Government, |
| JEL: | A1 B4 B5 D2 D6 D62 E6 E61 F6 F64 G3 H1 H2 H23 H5 H56 H57 H8 H82 K2 K23 L5 L7 O1 O13 O2 P1 P16 Q3 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126948 |
| By: | Lukas Vashold; Gustav Pirich; Maximilian Heinze; Nikolas Kuschnig |
| Abstract: | Mining operations in Africa are expanding rapidly, creating negative externalities that remain poorly understood. In this paper, we provide causal evidence for the impact of water pollution from mines on downstream vegetation and agriculture across the continent. We exploit discontinuities in water pollution caused by mines along river networks to compare vegetation health upstream and downstream. We find that mines significantly reduce peak vegetation downstream, impairing the productivity of croplands. These effects correspond to substantial crop losses and highlight the environmental and agricultural externalities of mining activity. |
| Keywords: | mining, agriculture, water pollution, vegetation, externality, natural resources |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2025-9 |
| By: | Okonjo-Iweala, Ngozi |
| Abstract: | This paper, based on the Mattei Lecture that the author delivered at the 2025 Africa Growth and Opportunity–Research in Action Conference, argues that Africa can anchor a new model of growth—and bolster global resilience—by shifting from commodity dependence to value-added production and deeper integration into trade and investment networks. Against a backdrop of strained multilateralism and falling foreign direct investment to developing economies, global trade remains more robust than presumed, with goods, services, and South-South flows expanding. Africa’s goods exports are projected to grow rapidly, and digitally delivered services have surged from a low base, underscoring untapped potential. Yet persistent impediments—among the world’s highest trade costs, slow regional integration, and limited value addition—have left Africa underrepresented in global trade. The paper advances a two-track agenda: (i) reforming the global trading system, including World Trade Organization modernization and investment facilitation, to restore predictability and openness; and (ii) accelerating African reforms to implement the African Continental Free Trade Area, reduce intra-African trade frictions, and attract efficiency-seeking foreign direct investment into manufacturing, services, and “industries without smokestacks.” Leveraging Africa’s megatrends—demographic dynamism, rising middle classes, and mineral and arable endowments—and “green comparative advantage, ” the paper highlights opportunities to locate energy-intensive activities where renewable resources are abundant, closing gaps in clean energy investment. Case studies—from industrial parks and automotive exports to fintech and critical mineral value chains—demonstrate feasibility but emphasize the need for scale. A pragmatic, delivery-focused partnership—particularly with Europe, via a modernized “Mattei formula”—is proposed to de-risk investment and prioritize timely, transformative infrastructure, yielding shared gains in growth, jobs, and supply chain diversification. |
| Date: | 2026–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11295 |
| By: | Bergman, Aaron (Resources for the Future); Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future); Nehrkorn, Katarina (Resources for the Future); Zhu, Yuqi |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen has the potential to serve as a zero-carbon energy carrier as an element of a zero-carbon economy. But the high cost of clean hydrogen and infrastructure needs for scaling, plus the dismantling of policies to promote its production and use, have hampered its spread. Focusing on the heavy-duty trucking and ports sectors, we review the policy landscape here and abroad and the obstacles faced by clean hydrogen in these sectors. We present potential policies for overcoming the demand-side obstacles in these two sectors, with some focus on the nascent Biden administration’s Joint Offtake Producer Auction and its contrast with other policy ideas, such as contracts for differences. The discussion is organized around the obstacles of high cost, uptake of fuel cell vehicles and the construction of a refueling network for heavy-duty trucking. Among several suggestions, we find that hydrogen use in heavy-duty trucking requires more coordinated investment due to the need for extensive refueling infrastructure along transportation corridors. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-03 |
| By: | Alan J. Hurd |
| Abstract: | Most methodologies for materials criticality assessment score supply risk and societal importance. Market-based criteria offer quantitative measures for assessment. Here we develop a statistical approach based on a geologic entropy function in which flexible constraints, such as economic, national security related, or regulatory, can be applied. As an example, the formulation describes the relation between elemental price and crustal abundance for selected elements, both important to supply risk. The method may be applicable to parameters resulting from collective decisions exhibiting a highly peaked probability distribution. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.09827 |
| By: | Marek Folprecht |
| Abstract: | The study presents a holistic approach to modeling flood risk of real estate properties. The method combines the hydrological flow simulation model and a model of financial losses. Two use cases of the model are discussed. First, a stress testing method, based on historical scenario simulations, is presented. Next, a Value at Risk approach using the Generalized extreme value distribution and the Gumbel copula is discussed. Both methods are then tested on a large sample of Czech house data. The results show that the model can replicate the order of historical flood magnitudes under the historical scenarios. Moreover, the Value at Risk approach can generate scenarios unseen in recent history. The model could be a useful flood losses modeling tool for banks, insurance companies, real estate investment companies or state agencies. A special case for stressing credit risk parameters for mortgage portfolios is discussed in more detail. |
| Keywords: | Flood risk, Generalized extreme value, Gumbel copula, Value at Risk, Monte Carlo, Czech Republic, Stress Testing |
| Date: | 2025–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:6:y:2026:id:6.001 |
| By: | Haibo Wang |
| Abstract: | This study examines market behavior in critical mineral investments using a novel analytical framework that combines change-point detection (PELT algorithm) with cross-sectional analysis. This research analyzes ESG-ranked critical mineral ETFs from March 31, 2014, to April 19, 2024, using the S&P 500 as a benchmark to evaluate market co-movements. The findings demonstrate that different critical mineral investments experienced change points at distinct times, but three major dates, July 23, 2015; March 17, 2020; and December 1, 2020, were common and aligned with global events such as the oil market shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and later market adjustments. Herding behavior among investors increased after these shocks, following the 2015 and 2020 crises, but shifted to anti-herding after positive vaccine news in late 2020 and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The sensitivity analysis shows that investor coordination is strongest during market downturns but exhibits greater variation during stable periods or after major developments, with these dynamics sensitive to the length of the observation period. Additionally, anti-herding became more apparent during crises, suggesting investors reacted to specific risks rather than moving in lockstep, especially in response to geopolitical shocks. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.10851 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly emerging as both an energy optimizer and a structural source of energy demand. While AI promises efficiency gains in forecasting, grid management, and emissions reduction, its expansion is already reshaping electricity systems: data center consumption could more than double by 2030. Beyond this techno-economic duality lies a deeper challenge: the sovereignty of digital and energy systems. AI rests on highly concentrated supply chains of chips, compute infrastructure, and critical minerals, as well as on access to abundant, low-carbon electricity. This concentration creates new dependencies and asymmetries, reinforcing the strategic control of a handful of actors. For Africa, the stakes are particularly high. The continent holds significant reserves of cobalt, manganese, rare earths, and other inputs indispensable to batteries and semiconductors, yet faces chronic electricity deficits, fragile grids, and limited compute capacity. Without deliberate investment in infrastructure, regional integration, and industrial upgrading, Africa risks remaining confined to raw-material supply while depending on foreign actors for digital infrastructure and cloud services. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_37-25 |
| By: | Hardman, Scott PhD; Karanam, Vaishnavi PhD |
| Abstract: | California has set an ambitious target to transition 100% of off-road vehicles and equipment to zero-emission (ZE) alternatives by 2035 “where feasible, ” as outlined in Executive Order N-79-20. Interviews were conducted with 16 stakeholders—contractors, manufacturers, rental firms, researchers, nonprofits, and public agencies. Intervieweesacknowledged positive attributes of ZE equipment, but barriers were more numerous and included inadequate charging infrastructure, limited grid access at job sites, high upfront equipment costs, limited ZE model availability, and complications with rental-based procurement models. Social and organizational barriers such as operator resistance, climate skepticism, and inequities faced by smaller firms were also noted. Most interviewees expressed skepticism that the 2035 ZE off-road goal is realistically achievable without significant policy and infrastructure support. Commonly recommended interventions included strengthening site-level grid capacity, expanding financial incentives and public investment, aligning regulations with market realities, and improving policymakers’ understanding of construction practices. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Zero emission vehicles, All terrain vehicles, Technology adoption, Electric vehicle charging, Interviews, Policy analysis |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4qk0182c |
| By: | Christopher Forsyth; Levi M. Larsen; Ryan Spangler; Chandu Bolisetti; Jason Hansen; Botros Hanna; Abdalla Abou-Jaoude; Jia Zhou; Koroush Shirvan |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a novel framework to model cost overruns associated with four key stakeholders in nuclear power plant construction: equipment suppliers, construction subcontractors, the design and management team, and creditors. The framework estimates the share of overruns caused by each stakeholder and the share of overruns they receive as payment. The results show that the share of cost overruns a given stakeholder causes and the share of overruns they receive as payment are often starkly different, which can lead to profit misallocations and litigation between parties, further exacerbating overruns. The magnitude of these potential profit misallocations is examined under three common contract structures - fixed-price, cost-plus, and performance-based - revealing the advantages and disadvantages of each framework for aligning stakeholder incentives. Regardless of the contract type chosen, strong owner involvement is crucial for project success, and the study concludes with specific recommendations for project owners seeking to minimize cost overruns. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.14558 |
| By: | Abayasiri-Silva, Kaludura |
| Abstract: | Robert Hall (1986, 1988, and 1990) has emphasised the importance of imperfect competition and economies of scale in explaining procyclical movements in measured total factor productivity in US industries. In contrast to the labour hoarding hypothesis and real business cycle theorists, he cites the observed procyclical movement in total factor productivity in US industries as evidence against perfect competition, revealing that prices substantially exceed marginal costs. Following the work of Hall (1986, 1988 and 1990), his paper investigates whether the procyclical movements in total productivity in Australian manufacturing industries provide some evidence for a particular type of market structure. The main contribution of this paper is the provision of a formal explanation for the difference between the estimated markup ratios and returns to scale by using value added data and gross output data, as highlighted in the work of Domowitz, Hubbard and Peterson (1988), Norrbin (1993) and Basu and Fernald (1995, 1997). Our formal explanation shows that, with the use of value added data, the estimated Solow residual (and hence the markup ratios) are almost twice as large as those obtained with gross output data, because of the two different production functions involved in estimating the Solow residual. Moreover, the main results of the paper, based on. the value added data, indicate that the price of most Australian manufacturing industries exceeds their marginal costs, as in the case of the US industries. The highest markup ratios are reported by the chemical and the iron and steel industries. The results also provide evidence that the textile, non-mineral products, other transport and photographic and scientific industries behave as competitive industries. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:copspp:266391 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt (HU Berlin); Elisabetta Pietrostefani (University of Liverpool); Ailin Zhang (London School of Economics and Political Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We illustrate the coordination problem in the provision of distinctive architectural design that arises from design externalities within a quantitative model. To quantify the model, we conduct a quantitative review of a growing literature concerned with the costs and benefits of distinctive design as well as a survey of architectural design preferences. We find that distinctive buildings sell at a 15% premium, on average. Positive design spillovers from distinctive nearby buildings result in a 9% premium. Distinctive buildings, however, are about 25% more expensive to build. The distribution of design ratings within buildings is well described by a Fr´echet distribution with a shape parameter of about 4. Parametrising the model to match these moments, we show in counterfactual simulations that the optimal subsidy of distinctive buildings amounts to 10% of construction costs. |
| Keywords: | architecture; design; economics; regulation; welfare; |
| JEL: | R3 N9 |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:561 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Elisabetta Pietrostefani; Ailin Zhang |
| Abstract: | We illustrate the coordination problem in the provision of distinctive architectural design that arises from design externalities within a quantitative model. To quantify the model, we conduct a quantitative review of a growing literature concerned with the costs and benefits of distinctive design as well as a survey of architectural design preferences. We find that distinctive buildings sell at a 15% premium, on average. Positive design spillovers from distinctive nearby buildings result in a 9% premium. Distinctive buildings, however, are about 25% more expensive to build. The distribution of design ratings within buildings is well described by a Fréchet distribution with a shape parameter of about 4. Parametrising the model to match these moments, we show in counterfactual simulations that the optimal subsidy of distinctive buildings amounts to 10% of construction costs. |
| Keywords: | Architecture, design, economics, regulation, welfare |
| JEL: | R3 N9 |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0088 |
| By: | Meagher, G. A.; Parmenter, B. R. |
| Abstract: | Since 1993 the Centre of Policy Studies has been using the MONASH model to produce year-by-year forecasts for the Australian economy, typically with forecast horizons of about ten years. MONASH is a large dynamic applied general equilibrium model. The MONASH forecasting system takes as inputs macroeconomic forecasts from Syntec Economic Services, forecasts for the agricultural and mining sectors from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, forecasts for international tourism from the Bureau of Tourism Research, and scenarios on technical change from extrapolations of recent historical experience. The MONASH model then produces consistent forecasts for 112 industries, 56 regions and 282 occupations. The occupational forecasts give projections of the demand for the ASCO unit groups in each of the six Australian States. These forecasts provide a background for assessing the skills likely to be required in the Australian workforce in the next decade. In this paper we report a selection of our most recent (as at February 1995) forecasts for occupations, and explain how they relate to the macroeconomic and industrial dimensions of the overall forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:copspp:266376 |
| By: | Huff, Karen M.; McDougall, Robert; Pearson, K. R.; Powell, Alan A. |
| Abstract: | The inauguration of APEC in October 1994 raises the prospect of large reductions to impediments to trade within the Asia-Pacific region. The global trade analysis model GTAP (see Hertel 161) is a research tool well suited to the analysis of such developments. Recent work with GTAP by Young and Huff explores the consequences for ten regions of the development of APEC in the post-NAFTA era. The present paper amplifies this GTAP work (by using a 37 rather than a 3 commodity disaggregation) and focuses it on Australia (by treating Australia as a separate region). The consequences for Australia of the development of APEC are explored in detail by feeding results from GTAP into a highly disaggregated (115 commodity) national model of Australia, MONASH. The latter is regularly used as the basis for medium and long range forecasts of the Australian economy (Adams, Dixon and McDonald [1]). APEC is good news for Australia, causing a 3 per cent improvement in its terms of trade, and allowing real expenditure to increase by about one half of one per cent at a fixed setting of the trade balance and with fixed total endowments of capital and labour. However some industries producing internationally traded goods run into major structural pressures: the black coal industry reduces output by almost 14 per cent relative to base case, while non-ferrous metals, some food products, and some suppliers to the textiles sector experience falls in output of about half this magnitude. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:copspp:266371 |
| By: | Kraynak, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the welfare costs of declining coal demand from the power sector on coal mining regions of the US. Using an instrumental variable derived from a stylized model of the electricity sector, I estimate that coal producers shed jobs and wages primarily in coal mining and adjacent industries. In-migration, home values, and public education expenditures also decline. Applied in a spatial equilibrium framework, my estimates imply about $0.85 billion in costs to coal country residents resulting from a net decline of $8.03 billion in thermal coal production value from 2007-2017. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nceewp:388972 |