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on Mining |
| By: | Saadaoui, Jamel; Smyth, Russell; Vespignani, Joaquin; Wang, Yitian |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global critical-mineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc, is overwhelmingly concentrated in China. Using monthly data from 1995–2025 and a structural VAR-local projection framework, we estimate the dynamic effects of exogenous shocks to the US-China Political Relations Index (PRI) on mineral markets. We find that geopolitical deterioration systematically induces significant precautionary stockpiling. We then construct a multidimensional friend-shoring index incorporating reserves, alignment, regime type and distance, showing that only a narrow set of United States partners, primarily Australia and Canada, offer feasible pathways for refining diversification. The policy recommendation stemming from our findings is that the United States should make strategic stockpiling of refined critical minerals, rather than raw ores, the centerpiece of its strategy to build supply chain resilience, while negotiating long-term bilateral packages for the supply of refined critical minerals with Australia and Canada. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; Critical minerals; Friend-shoring |
| JEL: | F51 Q34 Q37 |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127188 |
| By: | Miller, Hugh; Martinez Martinez, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | The digital and energy transitions, together with renewed rearmament, are driving up demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements. These materials are vital for low-carbon energy, digital infrastructure and defence systems. Supplies are highly geographically concentrated and exposed to geopolitical tensions; their scale-up has been slow. Governments are therefore seeking greater security of supply, including through stockpiling schemes as a buffer against disruption. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130736 |
| By: | Mathai, Manu V. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gluwps:334527 |
| By: | Fumany, Malene; Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Li, Nanxi; Elliott, Robert J.R.; Lander, Laura |
| Abstract: | Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the European Union's (EU) Net Zero strategies. Yet, rising regulatory pressures and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of supply chain bottlenecks for strategic and critical materials such as nickel and cobalt, posing threats not only to the EU's decarbonisation agenda but also to global Net Zero ambitions. In response, EU policymakers have accelerated efforts to develop local battery ecosystems including the recycling of end-of-life LIBs. However, the potential impact of these interventions on material dependencies and battery economics is not well understood. This paper introduces a novel policy-economic framework to assess the prospective evolution of the LIB recycling sector in response to policy changes introduced by the EU Battery Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1542). In particular, drawing on an industry-led survey, the framework evaluates the impact of the mandated minimum recycled content on material flow and battery costs. The results reveal that the Battery Regulation may increase battery cell costs by up to 15 %. While this study is EU-specific, its findings carry broader relevance for international battery policy and market dynamics and provides new evidence on how international policies may impact the future of the battery sector. |
| Keywords: | policy-economic framework; battery recycling; battery costs; critical minerals; EU battery regulation |
| JEL: | R48 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130801 |
| By: | Bin Ramli, Muhammad Sukri |
| Abstract: | As the global economy transitions toward decarbonization, the aluminium sector has become a focal point for strategic resource management. While policies such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aim to reduce emissions, they have inadvertently widened the price arbitrage between primary metal, scrap, and semi-finished goods, creating new incentives for market optimization. This study presents a unified, unsupervised machine learning framework to detect and classify emerging trade anomalies within UN Comtrade data (2020–2024). Moving beyond traditional rule-based monitoring, we apply a four-layer analytical pipeline utilizing Forensic Statistics, Isolation Forests, Network Science, and Deep Autoencoders. Contrary to the hypothesis that Sustainability Arbitrage would be the primary driver, empirical results reveal a contradictory and more severe phenomenon of Hardware Masking. Illicit actors exploit bi-directional tariff incentives by misclassifying scrap as high-count heterogeneous goods to justify extreme unit-price outliers of >$160/kg, a 1, 900% markup indicative of Trade-Based Money Laundering (TBML) rather than commercial arbitrage. Topologically, risk is not concentrated in major exporters but in high-centrality Shadow Hubs that function as pivotal nodes for illicit rerouting. These actors execute a strategy of Void-Shoring, systematically suppressing destination data to Unspecified Code to fracture mirror statistics and sever forensic trails. Validated by SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), the results confirm that price deviation is the dominant predictor of anomalies, necessitating a paradigm shift in customs enforcement from physical volume checks to dynamic, algorithmic valuation auditing. |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n2qub_v1 |
| By: | Wrobel, Ralph |
| Abstract: | Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical for Europe's economic competitiveness, green transition, and national security. Yet the EU remains heavily dependent on China for their supply, particularly in refining and processing. This paper examines Europe's vulnerability to supply disruptions and geopolitical leverage stemming from China's market dominance. Rising demand for REEs in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and defence technologies exacerbates this dependence, while environmental and regulatory constraints hinder European extraction and processing. Case studies, including the 2010 Senkaku crisis and 2024-25 Chinese export restrictions, illustrate how REEs can be used as strategic tools of coercion. The paper evaluates Europe's policy responses, highlighting the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), domestic processing projects, recycling initiatives, and international partnerships aimed at supply diversification. While progress is evident, challenges remain: recycling is nascent, domestic capacity is limited, and EU research programs are bureaucratic and slow. Overall, Europe faces a "geopolitical trap, " requiring urgent action to secure REE supply and technological resilience. |
| Keywords: | Rare earth elements (REEs), China, Europe, geopolitics, supply chain security, strategic autonomy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333912 |
| By: | Díez Pinto, Elena |
| Abstract: | El seminario “Planificación Estratégica Territorial y Cadenas de Valor Asociadas a la Explotación de Minerales Críticos en el Noroeste Argentino” realizado por la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y la Universidad Nacional de Salta en el marco del proyecto MINSUS IV de la Cooperación Alemana (GIZ) reunió a diversos actores en la Universidad Nacional de Salta, Argentina del 26 al 27 de marzo del 2025 para discutir el desarrollo territorial sostenible en las provincias litíferas de Argentina. Se abordaron temas como las oportunidades y desafíos del desarrollo territorial, la inversión pública, la gobernanza del litio y los potenciales encadenamientos productivos del litio, así como la medición y el monitoreo de impactos ambientales y los aportes de la academia a la planificación territorial en contextos mineros. Los participantes destacaron la importancia de una visión integral del territorio, que considere la minería como un medio para el desarrollo humano y no como un fin en sí mismo. Se enfatizó la necesidad de articular esfuerzos entre los distintos niveles de gobierno, el sector privado, la academia y la sociedad civil para promover una minería sostenible e inclusiva. También se analizaron los desafíos estructurales que enfrenta la región, como el bajo crecimiento económico, la heterogeneidad productiva y la desigualdad territorial. Se planteó la necesidad de fortalecer las políticas de desarrollo productivo, mejorar la coordinación institucional y promover la integración regional para impulsar el crecimiento y la diversificación económica. En el ámbito de la gobernanza del litio, se examinaron diferentes modelos a nivel global, destacando la importancia de la coordinación intergubernamental, la capacidad del Estado para captar y gestionar los recursos, y la participación ciudadana en la toma de decisiones. Se debatió sobre el potencial de la minería para superar el estancamiento económico, así como los desafíos vinculados a la sostenibilidad ambiental y social. Además se exploraron las oportunidades para generar encadenamientos productivos en torno al litio, con el objetivo de promover el desarrollo de proveedores locales, la agregación de valor y la diversificación económica. Similarmente, se abordaron las principales oportunidades y desafíos para la innovación tecnológica y valor agregado en las cadenas de valor del litio así como en la extracción de litio que pueden generar oportunidades para la agregación de valor. En materia de medición y monitoreo de impactos ambientales, se presentó una propuesta conceptual para el monitoreo integrado de salares, así como los elementos clave y desafíos que presenta el monitoreo ambiental participativo. Se conoció el indicador sintético de impactos ambientales de la actividad minera de Salta. Finalmente universidades de Jujuy, Salta y Catamarca visibilizaron las contribuciones de las universidades en la generación de conocimiento, análisis de impacto y propuestas para el desarrollo territorial sostenible. |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col043:83369 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin; Luca Rossini; Lorenzo Tonni |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a real-time forecasting framework for the monthly real prices of four key industrial metals -- aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc -- whose demand is rising due to their widespread use in manufacturing and low-carbon technologies. To replicate the information set available to forecasters in real time, we construct a new dataset combining daily financial variables with first-release macroeconomic indicators and use nowcasting techniques to address publication lags. Within this real-time environment, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of a broad set of univariate, multivariate, and factor-augmented models, comparing their performance with two industry benchmarks: survey expectations and futures-spot spread models. Results show that although short-run metal price movements remain difficult to predict, medium-term horizons display substantial forecastability. Indicators of manufacturing activity tied to primary metals -- such as new orders and capacity utilization -- significantly improve forecasting accuracy for aluminum and copper, with more moderate gains for zinc and limited improvements for nickel. Futures and survey forecasts generally underperform the real-time econometric models. These findings highlight the value of incorporating timely macroeconomic information into forecasting frameworks for industrial metal markets. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.16521 |
| By: | Levers, Jimmy Thierry (Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia RUDN) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the role of gold in the transformation of the global financial and political order, focusing on its relationship with the U.S. dollar during periods of systemic crisis. It assesses whether gold or the dollar provides a more stable reserve asset by analyzing U.S. debt dynamics, BRICS gold accumulation, and recent digital monetary innovations. The study shows that the persistent rise of U.S. public debt, now exceeding $37 trillion, undermines confidence in the dollar’s sustainability despite its continuing dominance as the global reserve currency. In response, BRICS countries increasingly diversify reserves through gold holdings, a practice that functions not only as financial hedging but also as a political act of sovereignty against U.S. monetary coercion and sanctions. However, the absence of a coherent BRICS monetary strategy limits the bloc’s ability to offer a structured alternative to dollar hegemony. At the same time, the United States seeks to reinforce its monetary dominance through regulatory innovation, notably the GENIUS Act, which anchors stablecoins to the dollar. China, by contrast, promotes its digital renminbi (e-CNY) to gradually reduce reliance on dollar-based infrastructures. Together, these dynamics suggest a contested multipolar order where gold regains importance as a political and monetary anchor. |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:grqza_v1 |
| By: | Foong, Gerald (Singapore Management University); Machin, Stephen (London School of Economics); Sandi, Matteo (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study whether economic incentives matter for crime in a novel way, through study of expensive precious metal thefts by thieves stealing catalytic converters. We combine sharp, plausibly exogenous variation in the prices of precious metals embedded in converters with newly assembled U.S. data and multiple research designs. We show that phenomenally fast increases in precious metal prices generated a sizeable and rapid rise in auto-part thefts, while subsequent price declines and policy responses quickly reversed this pattern. The resulting boom-and-bust dynamics provide clean evidence that both demand- and supply-side economic forces shape property crime and inform targeted deterrence policies. |
| Keywords: | auto-part theft, expensive precious metals, catalytic converters |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18353 |
| By: | Haruka Nagamori; Kazuhiko Nishimura |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the structural transformation of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) tin market induced by the U.S. Dodd-Frank Act. Focusing on the breakdown of the pricing mechanism, we estimate the price elasticity of export demand from 2010 to 2022 using a structural identification strategy that overcomes the lack of reliable unit value data. Our analysis reveals that the regulation effectively destroyed the price mechanism, with demand elasticity dropping to zero. This indicates the formation of a ``captive market'' driven by certification requirements rather than price competitiveness. Crucially, we find strong hysteresis; deregulation alone failed to restore market flexibility. The structural rigidity was finally broken not by policy suspension, but by the 2019 ``Huawei shock, '' an external demand surge that forced supply chain diversification. These findings suggest that conflict mineral regulations can induce monopolistic bottlenecks that are resilient to simple deregulation. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.21645 |