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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Marius A. K. Ring |
| Abstract: | Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021–2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an “exodus” of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times, 2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners’ firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners’ savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms. Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms, nor is there any evidence that the reform induced more bankruptcies. These findings indicate that the short-run economic costs of wealth taxation, in terms of migration and firm investment, are more limited than the public debate implies. |
| JEL: | H0 H2 H3 H31 H32 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35854 |
| By: | N. Meltem Daysal; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Naeim S. Samandari; Emil A. L. Simonsen; Mircea Trandafir |
| Abstract: | Area-level measures of economic opportunity are increasingly used to guide place-based policies. We study whether these measures predict long-run outcomes for a vulnerable population: over 12, 000 refugee children quasi-randomly assigned to municipalities under Denmark's 1986–1998 dispersal policy. We focus on predetermined measures of opportunity available when children arrive and validate them using a mover-exposure design among permanent residents. Moving from a low- to a high-opportunity area (a two-standard-deviation increase) raises adult income rank by 3 percentile points (7.5 percent) and employment by 4 percentage points. It also reduces criminal convictions by 14 percent and teen parenthood by 19 percent, with more modest effects on educational attainment. Economic opportunity predicts crime and teen parenthood more strongly than other area characteristics, including local crime rates. For adult income, area-level inequality is a particularly strong predictor. These findings suggest that social mobility in the areas where refugee children grow up meaningfully shapes their long-term wellbeing. |
| JEL: | D63 J15 J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35853 |
| By: | Mori, Samantha; Mindes, Samuel C.H. |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity is an indicator of economic hardship and is closely related to poverty and low income (Coleman-Jensen & Steffen, 2017). These conditions are both barriers and drivers of migration (Czaika & Reinprecht, 2020), suggesting a relationship between food insecurity and migration intentions. This study examines the relationship between household food insecurity status, including SNAP/food stamp benefit use, and their intention to move. Using data from the NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey (Mindes, Bednarik, & Mori, 2026), a logistic regression analysis estimates the effect of food insecurity on household intentions to leave their current residential location. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ncrcrd:413151 |
| By: | Juan Pablo Atal; Tomás Larroucau; Pablo Muñoz; Cristóbal Otero |
| Abstract: | Occupational licensing is a widespread quality regulation that potentially increases the quality of labor but reduces its quantity. We provide a theoretical framework to empirically quantify this trade-off in public hospitals, where both clinical quality and physician shortages are critical concerns. Using quasi-exogenous variation driven by a recent and unprecedented migration of physicians to Chile, together with growth in domestic medical schools, we show that more physicians improve patient outcomes, while lower-quality physicians—as measured by licensing exam performance—worsen them. Incorporating these findings into our theoretical framework, we evaluate the implications of locally changing the stringency of the licensing policy. |
| JEL: | I18 J24 J44 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35855 |
| By: | Max Deter; Kalle Kappner; Hans Lueders |
| Abstract: | Does repression silence dissent or push people to leave? We study the arrest of protesters during East Germany's Peaceful Revolution, using novel micro-data from Leipzig. Residents of streets and houses with an arrested protester were more likely to have left their address once the Berlin Wall fell, and exit visa applications rose in the months after an arrest. Nearby protest activity and support for the opposition show no visible decline after an arrest. Our results suggest that repression raised the demand for exit without a visible retreat of voice, and that residents acted on this demand once leaving became possible. |
| Keywords: | protest, repression, emigration, exit visas, East Germany, autocratic breakdown |
| JEL: | H10 N44 P20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13036 |