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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | David C. Grabowski; Jonathan Gruber; Brian E. McGarry |
| Abstract: | We measure the impact of increased immigration on mortality among elderly Americans, who rely on the immigrant-intensive health and long-term care sectors. Using a shift-share approach we find a strong impact of immigration on the size of the immigrant care workforce: admitting 1, 000 new immigrants would lead to 142 new foreign healthcare workers, without evidence of crowd out of native health care workers. We also find striking effects on mortality: a 25% increase in the steady state flow of immigrants to the US would result in 5, 000 fewer deaths nationwide. We identify reduced use of nursing homes as a key mechanism driving this result. |
| JEL: | I18 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34791 |
| By: | Javier Cravino; Andrei A. Levchenko; Francesc Ortega; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the effects of large-scale deportations on wages, prices, and real incomes in the United States. We impute the legal status for each worker in the American Community Survey by combining detailed individual information with group-level visa records. In 2024, 3.2% of US workers were unauthorized, but some regions and sectors were heavily dependent on unauthorized immigrant labor. We develop a dynamic quantitative framework with multiple regions, sectors and occupations, heterogeneous workers, and endogenous capital accumulation to study the economic impacts of removing unauthorized workers. We derive analytical expressions relating region- and occupation-specific real wages and sectoral relative prices to changes in the supply of immigrant workers, observable factor shares, and combinations of structural elasticities. Following the removal of 50% of unauthorized immigrants, in the short run average native real wages rise 0.15% nationally, driven by an increase in the capital-labor ratio. In the long run, however, native real wages fall in every state, and by 0.33% nationally, as capital gets decumulated in response to a lower population. Consumer prices in the sectors intensive in unauthorized workers – such as Farming – rise by about 1% relative to the price of the average consumption basket, while most other sectors experience negligible relative price changes. |
| JEL: | F22 F66 F68 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34790 |
| By: | Chloe N. East; Caitlin Patler; Elizabeth Cox |
| Abstract: | Deportation is often framed as a necessary tool to protect public safety by removing people who commit crimes. We use newly available, and externally validated, administrative data containing all US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests from September 2015-October 2025. Beyond demonstrating national trends in immigration arrests by method and composition over time, we are also able to compare, for the first time, apprehensions spanning the start of the two Trump administrations, both of which focused on mass immigration enforcement. Our results reveal that the reality of immigration enforcement diverges sharply from the public narrative: while arrests spiked at the outset of both Trump presidencies, there were significant declines in the percentage of arrested individuals with criminal convictions, with especially marked declines in 2025. Examining potential mechanisms reveals that this is driven by a change in ICE tactics, but even conditional on tactic, as arrests rose, the percent with a criminal record declined. Moreover, we find substantial heterogeneity over time and across ICE Areas of Responsibility. Taken together, our results highlight a substantial gap between political rhetoric and reality. |
| JEL: | H50 J0 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34794 |
| By: | Ruth Neville (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Athina Anastasiadou (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The gender composition of international student mobility (ISM) to the United Kingdom (UK) has historically favoured female students, but recent trends indicate a decline in their proportions. This paper investigates the changing trends of female international mobility to UK higher education. It utilises data from the UK Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) on international undergraduate student applications by gender. This study examines evolving patterns of ISM from both European Union (EU) and non-European Union (non-EU) countries, as well as the trajectories of specific countries of origin. Our findings reveal a decline in the share of female students from non-EU countries since 2021, alongside a reduction in female applicants from the EU post-Brexit. Additionally, we observe that countries like Pakistan and India consistently send fewer female students, remaining below gender parity. Using a Generalised Linear Model (GLM), we model the share of female students and assess the influence of demographic, cultural, and policy factors on the share of female applications. Based on these findings, we provide policy recommendations aimed at promoting gender equity in international student recruitment to the UK. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom, gender, international migration, students |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-004 |
| By: | George J. Borjas |
| Abstract: | The H-1B program lets firms hire high-skill foreign workers for a six-year term. The annual number of visas allocated to for-profit firms is capped at 85, 000 and there is excess demand for those visas. The analysis merges data from the Labor Condition Application where firms attest that H-1B hires do not adversely impact natives, the I-129 Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker where firms request to hire a specific person, and the American Community Surveys. On average, H-1B workers earn 16 percent less than comparable natives. The payroll savings suggest that firms may be willing to pay a one-time fee to obtain an H-1B visa. The data are examined using a labor demand model to simulate how a fee alters the hiring decision. Depending on the level of excess demand, the unobserved productivity gains or costs from an H-1B hire, and the rate of job separations, the revenue-maximizing fee is between $118, 000 and $264, 000, has little or no impact on the number of H-1Bs hired, and generates between $6.2 and $22.4 billion in revenues. The fee would also change the skill composition of the H-1B workforce, making it more skilled. |
| JEL: | J08 J18 J69 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34793 |
| By: | Haufe, Mathilde; Hottenrott, Hanna; Rodepeter, Elisa; Schoonjans, Eline |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurship is essential for innovation and economic growth. Newly founded companies contribute to innovation and technology diffusion and increase pressure on incumbent firms to innovate. In Germany, migrant entrepreneurs play an increasingly important role in the entrepreneurial landscape. Their integration into this ecosystem is not only essential for fostering inclusive economic growth, but migrant founders also display a comparatively higher propensity for innovation. Based on data and insights from the IAB/ZEW Start-up Panel, this policy brief highlights the characteristics of and challenges for migrant entrepreneurs to understand how future policy frameworks could be designed to make better use of their potential. We find that while young migrant-founded firms are often opportunity-driven, have high growth ambitions, and are innovative, they are constrained in their access to external capital and have to rely more frequently on their founders' and their families' resources. These findings suggest that frictions in financing young firms hamper migrant entrepreneurship in Germany and that there is room to address these constraints through targeted policies facilitating access to support programmes and bank financing. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:336902 |