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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Cruz, José-Luis; Di Giovanni, Julian |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the impact of recent U.S. migration policy on the aggregate economy and state-level outcomes using a general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous firms and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants. The analysis incorporates data on migration by legal status, skill composition, trade flows, and firm heterogeneity. Repatriating undocumented immigrants reduces U.S. GDP by 5.46% and natives’ welfare by 2.46%, while repatriating temporary visa holders results in declines of 1.50% and 0.66%, respectively. Regional effects vary, reflecting differences in states’ immigrant-to-population shares. Model-implied welfare losses from repatriating undocumented immigrants are almost twice that of recent tariff increases. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | F12 F15 F22 F24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20949 |
| By: | Andrew Garin; Ethan Jenkins; Evan E. Mast; Bryan A. Stuart |
| Abstract: | This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases in earnings are linked to migration to better neighborhoods. This results in the earnings of the cohort who lived in a poor neighborhood at baseline growing more than twice as fast as the earnings of these neighborhoods' contemporaneous residents. Overall, our results highlight an underappreciated reason why poor neighborhoods stay poor: initial residents whose earnings grow tend to move away. |
| JEL: | J30 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35381 |
| By: | Razin, Assaf |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the consequences of regime change for both migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) by employing quasi-natural experiments that exploit external and internal shocks to democratic institutions. It compares evidence from Europe, which was afflicted by the “Syrian Shock†—an external institutional stress testing administrative and fiscal capacity—and Israel, which experienced the “Corruption Shock†—an internal credibility crisis that eroded judicial independence and policy predictability. These two shocks provide a natural experiment to examine how weakening democratic institutions influence both capital mobility and people mobility, using a unified econometric framework. The analysis applies Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation to OECD panel data spanning 1995–2023 to isolate the causal effects of institutional deterioration on FDI inflows and migration flows. The DiD approach, complemented by fixed effects at the country and year levels, captures both the short-term disruptions caused by exogenous humanitarian pressures and the long-term persistence of governance-driven uncertainty. The results demonstrate that internal shocks—such as Israel’s judicial and corruption crises—generate large and durable declines in FDI and sustained outward migration, while external shocks—such as Europe’s refugee crisis—produce more transient effect |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20859 |
| By: | Matthew Hall; Giulia Olivero |
| Abstract: | Residential mobility is a critical aspect of immigrant incorporation, shaping not only access to schools, jobs and safer neighborhoods, but also influencing long-term prospects for upward mobility and social integration. However, existing research on residential mobility remains limited by data constraints, particularly the lack of sufficiently large samples to track moves among smaller racial and nativity groups. In this work, we address these limitations by using data from the Survey of Income and program Participation (SIPP) from 1996 to 2023 to examine differences in residential mobility patterns across racial and nativity groups. |
| Keywords: | SIPP |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-15 |
| By: | Winters, John (Iowa State University) |
| Abstract: | The Midwestern United States is often called the Heartland of America. The Heartland was once an engine of American economic growth, but technological change and industrial restructuring have made it difficult for many places to thrive. Skilled workers are critical for regional economic prosperity. However, the Heartland is struggling with its human capital. Specifically, the Heartland produces college-educated workers at a high rate but disproportionately loses these workers to other regions. In other words, the Midwest is suffering brain drain to other regions. In this outreach article, I present key facts about this issue and discuss possible paths forward. |
| Keywords: | human capital, regional development, migration, brain drain, Midwest, Heartland |
| JEL: | R10 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18752 |
| By: | Britto, Diogo; Imbert, Clément; Sampaio, Breno; Ulyssea, Gabriel; Fonseca, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a large-scale policy that distributed rain-fed cisterns to poor households in Brazil's semi-arid region. Linking administrative data between 2011 and 2019, we find that cisterns reduce emigration by 25% and mortality by 19% relative to untreated households. The mortality reduction is more than twice as large for women than for men, and more than doubles among households who received an additional cistern for agricultural use. We estimate benefit-to-cost ratios of 600-1000 depending on the Value of a Statistical Life used. Our findings demonstrate that this simple, affordable technology enables in-situ climate adaptation at scale and saves lives. |
| Keywords: | Mortality; Migration; Climate change adaptation |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21195 |
| By: | Jeremy Neufeld |
| Abstract: | The United States’ innovation edge rests on its ability to draw on the best talent from around the world. Yet, the laws that govern high-skilled immigration have barely moved since 1990 for permanent residency and since 2000 for temporary work visas, leaving them misaligned with the size and needs of today’s economy. Employers register for more than three times as many H-1Bs as are available each year, which are then awarded at random rather than on the basis of merit. For permanent residency, just 140, 000 employment-based green cards are issued annually, most of which go to spouses and children rather than to workers themselves. The resulting backlogs now exceed one million, leaving many workers stuck in less productive jobs and discouraging future talent from coming to the US altogether. This paper charts the alphabet soup of high-skilled immigration pathways—F-1/OPT, J-1, H-1B, O-1A, EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3—demonstrating how inflexible and outdated rules have undermined the scale, selectivity, and retention of global talent. It proposes reforms to make immigration a renewed national strength: expanding green cards, piloting a points based system for permanent residency, and launching a government talent-scouting arm. Together, these steps would realign US immigration policy with national ambition and restore its role in fueling American innovation and economic leadership. |
| Keywords: | immigration, labor supply |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxx:wpaper:aligning-high-skilled-immigration-policy-with-national-strategy |
| By: | Shawn Berry |
| Abstract: | Deciding where to live involves a complex balance between commuting and moving, as households must weigh housing affordability, transportation expenses, access to workplaces, and social ties. Traditional urban economic theories focus on the balance between housing expenses and commuting costs, while modern studies also consider housing affordability, transportation access, and utility maximization. However, few studies have combined these elements into a clear mathematical model that can be used for both policy analysis and household decision-making. This paper introduces an algebraic model for deciding whether to commute or move, expanding on traditional residential location theories by including direct housing and commuting expenses, income-related affordability limits, indirect social and service access costs, and location-based utility within a single utility-maximization framework. The model uses the common 30% housing affordability rule as a constraint, acknowledging that residential choices are also shaped by social networks, access to institutions, neighborhood ties, and quality-of-life factors. The decision rule derived from the model integrates direct financial costs with weighted social benefits and indirect access costs to assess when moving offers more overall utility than staying put and commuting. Unlike complex discrete-choice, nested-logit, or agent-based models, this framework offers a mathematically clear, understandable, and flexible decision model that can easily be expanded to include more household characteristics, transportation options, or policy factors. The model advances urban economics, migration studies, and housing affordability research by providing a practical analytical tool for assessing residential mobility decisions within financial and behavioral limits. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.31780 |
| By: | Nong Zhu; Jianwei Zhong |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, rural Canada has faced significant demographic challenges, particularly in the aging and decline of its population. These demographic trends are leading to social, economic and political changes within these communities. Regardless of the cause, a decline in a community’s population will invariably bring about budgetary consequences. The tax base, i.e., the number of its taxpayers, decreases, which reduces the community’s ability to fund its fixed costs and maintain its infrastructure. In this article, the authors analyze the relationship between the movement of immigrants to non-metropolitan areas in Canada and the income distribution in these regions. Using data from Canadian censuses, they show that the settlement of immigrants in non-metropolitan regions contributes to an increase in their average income and a reduction in income inequality within this group. Au cours des dernières décennies, les régions rurales du Canada ont été confrontées à d’importants défis démographiques, en particulier au déclin et au vieillissement de la population. Ces dynamiques démographiques entraînent des recompositions sociales, économiques et politiques au sein des communautés rurales. Quelle qu’en soit la cause, la diminution de la population d’une communauté entraîne très généralement des conséquences sur le plan budgétaire. Le nombre de contribuables, et donc la base fiscale, diminue, ce qui diminue la capacité de la communauté à financer ses charges fixes, les coûts d’entretien de son territoire et ses infrastructures. Dans cet article, les auteurs analysent les relations entre la migration des immigrants vers les régions non métropolitaines du Canada et la distribution de revenu dans ces régions. À partir des données des recensements canadiens, ils montrent que l’installation des immigrants dans les régions non métropolitaines contribue à l’amélioration de leur revenu moyen et à la réduction des inégalités de revenu au sein des communautés immigrantes. |
| Date: | 2026–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2026pj-14 |
| By: | David Argente (Yale University); Esteban Mendez (Central Bank of Costa Rica); Diana Van Patten (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how new varieties enter markets and become locally available. We provide causal evidence of demand externalities that operate in two steps. First, information about new varieties diffuses directly through real-world social ties among consumers. Combining the instrument with linked consumer--retailer data and a self-conducted retailer survey, we show that this response reflects learning about latent demand for varieties not yet stocked locally. Together, social diffusion and retailer learning generate demand multipliers that reshape local product availability and expand access to global variety. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2522 |