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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Anna Piil Damm; Ahmad Hassani; Anil Kumar; Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez |
| Abstract: | To estimate the causal effect of immigration flows on housing market variables in the medium-run, we address the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting exogenous variation from push-factor migration and a unique institutional setting that allocates refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. Economic theory predicts that immigrant influx will increase demand for residential space, increasing house rents and prices as well as residential construction at the aggregate level, but will have ambiguous effects at the neighborhood level in case of native flight. We find a large positive impact on house rents and prices and little evidence of native flight at the municipal level. At the neighborhood level, we also find a positive impact on house rents and prices, albeit more modest, as well as evidence of native flight. We further provide evidence of inelastic supply. Our findings support economic policies that increase housing supply elasticities and re-distribute part of the gains from immigration to groups that bear the burden from immigration and thereby decrease political opposition to immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Residential real estate, Re-distribution, Inequality, Quasi-random allocation of refugee immigrants, Shift-share instruments |
| JEL: | J61 R31 H71 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2578 |
| By: | Ahmet Gulek |
| Abstract: | I study how local immigration shocks impact labor markets and firms across the economy through production networks. Using Turkey's Syrian refugee crisis and firm-level trade network data, I show that firms buying from host regions demand more labor, while those selling to host regions increase sales. These spillovers depend critically on network centrality: a 1% labor supply increase in Istanbul decreases local real wages by 0.56% while increasing non-host wages by 0.38%. For non-central regions, identical shocks reduce local wages by 1% with negligible spillovers. Network position thus determines whether immigration only lowers local wages or also generates economy-wide gains. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, trade, production network |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J15 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25109 |
| By: | Lukas Delgado-Prieto |
| Abstract: | The labor market effects of immigration depend on how firms adjust, yet this aspect remains unexplored in developing countries. This paper studies the mass influx of Venezuelan migrants into Colombia using employer-employee data. As immigrants concentrate in informal employment, formal employment for minimum-wage natives falls, reflecting their substitutability with lower-cost informal workers. The negative effects are stronger in small formal firms, which rely more on informality. A machine learning analysis shows that firm-level factors explain more of the heterogeneity in worker-level impacts. These findings highlight that informality amplifies firms' role in shaping workers' immigration adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Minimum wages, Formal labor markets, Causal forest |
| JEL: | F22 O15 O17 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26041 |
| By: | Gehrke, Esther (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | We examine how shocks to migration opportunities affect schooling outcomes in origin communities. We focus on the migration between Mexico and the United States, and exploit the expansion of the Secure Communities program in the US - a federal data-sharing program that substantially increased the risk of deportation for illegal migrants - as exogenous shock to the attractiveness of illegal migration. Our results suggest that the Secure Communities program increased attendance, enrollment, and educational attainment in municipalities that had stronger migration network links with counties in the US that adopted the program early-on relative to municipalities that had ties with US counties that introduced the policy somewhat later. These results are consistent with the interpretation that the Secure Communities program raised the returns to education for prospective migrants by making low-skill migration to the US less attractive. |
| Keywords: | migration, human capital, Mexico |
| JEL: | I26 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18570 |
| By: | Ahmet Gulek |
| Abstract: | I study the effects of Syrian refugees, who are denied work permits and thus can only work informally, on Turkish firms and workers. Using travel distance as an instrument for refugee location, I show that low-skill natives lose both informal and formal salaried jobs. I document two mechanisms: formal firms reduce their formal labor demand and new firms do not enter the formal economy. Estimates imply an elasticity of substitution of 10 between formal and informal workers. Counterfactual exercises predict that granting refugees work permits would have created up to 120, 000 formal jobs in the economy through higher informal wages. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Immigration, Refugee crises, Work permits |
| JEL: | D22 J15 J21 J46 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2584 |
| By: | Tenaw, Dagmawe (Department of Economics and Management “Marco Fanno”, University of Padova, Italy); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Llorca , Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Electrification is a key driver of human welfare, yet its role on internal migration remains underexplored. This paper studies how reliable electrification influences migration dynamics in Ethiopia, a rapidly electrifying country with sizable internal mobility, by combining a spatial perspective with analysis of local economic effects. We first adopt an electrification-augmented gravity model of internal migration and explore the origin vs destination effects of regional electrification. We then complement this approach with a community-level analysis to uncover underlying mechanisms. Leveraging different rich administrative surveys combined with satellite-based nighttime luminosity, we find that electrification at destinations acts as a strong pull factor, attracting both rural- and urban-origin migrants. In contrast, the effect of origin electrification is non-linear, with its migration-inducing effect dominating and operating mainly through urban-directed flows. The community-level analysis reinforces the gravity-based findings, showing that reliable electricity is strongly associated with a higher (lower) likelihood of a community becoming a net receiver (sender) of migrants and experiencing higher inward (outward) labor mobility. Improved access to public services and local employment sources are the main channels at play. Overall, we provide policy-relevant insights into the role of reliable electrification in shaping demographic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model; Migration; Labor mobility; Reliable electricity; Nighttime luminosity |
| JEL: | J61 O18 Q40 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_008 |
| By: | Ana Abeliansky (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso (University of Goettingen); Anna Katharina Raggl (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division) |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the trade creation effects of migration using a large sample of 180 countries from 1995 to 2023. We estimate a structural gravity model of bilateral trade augmented with migration stocks, investigating whether immigration to OECD countries relates to the extensive and intensive margins of trade. To address potential endogeneity, we apply a two-step control function approach based on a first-stage gravity model of migration that exploits bilateral and time variation in migration regularization policies across OECD countries. Results obtained using PPML estimators show robust pro-trade effects of migration through the extensive margin, with non-linearities and heterogeneity across product types. The findings show that migration primarily fosters exports of new, differentiated products, while effects on the intensive margin are weaker for different types of goods. These results stress the role of migrant networks as facilitators of new trade relationships and highlight policy implications for migration and trade integration. |
| Keywords: | immigration; trade margins; extensive margin; gravity model; PPML; CFA; expectiles; OECD |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F22 |
| Date: | 2026–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:275 |
| By: | Shadi Farahzadi |
| Abstract: | The impact of policies restricting marriage migration depends on whether it is driven by preferences to marry within one's group (endogamy preferences) or gains from residency in a developed country (outside market value). I develop a novel marriage matching model incorporating the choice to marry from one's origin country. I focus on British Muslims, since half of them marry someone from their origin country. I find that 80% of Muslim marriage migration is explained by endogamy preferences. Therefore, raising the costs of marriage migration does not increase their integration through intermarriage; instead, it leads to a larger share of unmarried Muslims. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Integration, Marriage Market, Matching Model |
| JEL: | J12 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26027 |
| By: | Michelle Hansch; Jan Sebastian Nimczik; Alexandra Spitz-Oener |
| Abstract: | We examine how former coworkers influence migration decisions following major labor market shocks, using the quasi-experimental setting of German reunification. Displaced East German workers are more likely to move to West Germany if they have former coworkers from the German Democratic Republic already there. Migration is strategic: workers move when their labor market prospects align with those of their contacts already in the West, and those contacts have positive labor market experiences. An extended Roy model rationalizes these findings, suggesting that migration is driven by relevant, job-specific information rather than social support from contacts. |
| Keywords: | Internal Migration, Workplace Networks |
| JEL: | J61 J62 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2577 |
| By: | Gabriele Lucchetti |
| Abstract: | I document that the city-size earnings premium is smaller for immigrants than for natives, driven by low-income-country immigrants, who sort less into cognitive occupations in larger cities. I interpret these facts through a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous human capital, amenities, and local earnings wedges. Local earnings wedges are the main channel behind the immigrant-native gap in the city-size earnings premium. Removing all immigrant-native differences closes 62 percent of the immigrant-native earnings gap but widens the spatial earnings gap by 20 percent. Expanding college immigration narrows the workers' earnings gap without widening the spatial earnings gap. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant Earnings Gap, City-Size Earnings Premium, Spatial Equilibrium, Occupational Sorting, Human Capital |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J31 J61 R13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26082 |
| By: | Mark Borgschulte; Heepyung Cho; Darren Lubotsky |
| Abstract: | We examine the differential effects of minimum wages on immigrant and native workers in the United States. We find that minimum wage increases lead to reduced hours of work among immigrants with no effect on their employment. The effects are concentrated among recently-arrived, likely-undocumented workers in high turnover industries. Native workers show no such response, even when examining native subgroups with similar characteristics to the most affected immigrants. We conclude that affected immigrant labor markets feature low-surplus, low-investment employment relationships with flexible hours, but they are embedded in labor markets where replacement is unusually costly. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants, minimum wage, employment, hours of work, labor hoarding |
| JEL: | J08 J15 J38 J42 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26103 |
| By: | Mette Foged; Karen-Inge Karstoft; Edith Zink |
| Abstract: | Employment gaps between refugees and natives are well documented, yet the role of trauma-related mental health in shaping these gaps remains underexplored, partly because most data sources lack measures of symptoms early after arrival. We assess probable PTSD shortly after displacement in an entire refugee arrival cohort and link these data to administrative tax records. We find that PTSD symptoms are associated with lower employment probabilities, explaining roughly one-quarter of the refugee-native employment gap one to two years after arrival. This difference is nearly twice as large as the difference attributable to English proficiency and comparable to the difference linked to pre-displacement employment. Among employed refugees, probable PTSD is associated with fewer hours worked per month, though not with lower hourly wages. Our findings underscore the potential of early psychological screening and support as complements to existing labor market integration policies. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, labor market assimilation, mental health |
| JEL: | J15 J61 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26019 |
| By: | Yu Qin; Michael Vlassopoulos; Jackline Wahba |
| Abstract: | Language proficiency is a key determinant of immigrant integration. This paper examines the causal impact of host-country language proficiency (proxied by reading test scores) on school integration and bullying among first-generation immigrant students across 16 OECD destination countries, using data from the 2015, 2018, and 2022 waves of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). We employ an instrumental variable strategy exploiting exogenous variation in exposure to the host-country language, measured through the interaction of immigrants' age at arrival and the linguistic distance between their mother tongue and the host-country language. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in reading proficiency raises a standardized index of school integration by about 0.56 standard deviations, and reduces a standardized bullying index by about 0.59 standard deviations. The protective effect against bullying is stronger for boys, whereas integration gains are more similar across genders. We also find positive effects on academic achievement and grade progression, and links to more ambitious expectations, better teacher relations, and a stronger non-cognitive profile that plausibly explains the integration effects. These results suggest the importance of language proficiency as an input into the joint production of cognitive and psychosocial outcomes for immigrant youth. |
| Keywords: | Language proficiency, immigrant integration, bullying, school belonging, PISA, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | I21 J15 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26048 |
| By: | Mette Foged; Jens Hainmueller; Mikkel Stahlschmidt; Edith Zink |
| Abstract: | Sudden displacement crises strain reception systems and require rapid expansion of refugee accommodation beyond conventional channels. We study Denmark's 2022 reception of Ukrainian refugees and provide the first population-level analysis of two scalable strategies that expanded capacity outside standard public refugee housing: public "pop-up" shelters and private hosting in residents' homes. Using linked administrative registers covering the full arriving population, combined with a representative refugee survey, we classify each refugee's initial accommodation from address and co-residence records and track outcomes for 18 months. The majority of arrivals was absorbed in pop-up shelters (37%) and private hosting (43%). Both proved durable, with mean stays of about seven months and no indication that private hosting was less stable. Exploiting quasi-random assignment generated by within-municipality capacity and time constraints, we estimate effects of accommodation type while conditioning on locality, arrival timing, and sociodemographics. Relative to conventional public housing, private hosting led to higher early employment, higher earnings, persistently lower public-transfer receipt, and improved psychological well-being. Pop-up housing performed at least as well on labor-market outcomes and showed modest gains in social integration. By holding locality constant, we show that how refugees are housed within municipalities has an independent, first-order effect on integration-distinct from the well-studied importance of where they are placed. These findings highlight the potential for civic-led accommodation to complement public systems during displacement shocks and shape long-term refugee trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; integration; public policy; housing provision |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25154 |
| By: | Arnab K. Basu; Nancy H. Chau; Gary Lin |
| Abstract: | Why has internal migration remained low, even as advances in communication technologies have reduced information frictions in relocation decisions? This paper develops and estimates a spatial model of mobility that incorporates status quo bias in locational preferences, multilateral search frictions, and comoving regional unemployment. Using historical proxies for search frictions, we identify and recover county-level estimates of status quo bias across the United States. Status quo bias is spatially heterogeneous and highest in states containing large urban job centers. Translating these estimates into expected-utility, geographic-distance, and state-border equivalents indicates that variation in status quo bias generates migration frictions comparable to large geographic and institutional barriers. Status quo bias also exhibits strong persistence over time, a robust relationship to migration dynamics, and associations with a range of non-wage individual- and community-level correlates of locational preferences (e.g., housing, climate, and religious and political orientations). These patterns suggest that status quo bias partly reflects place-based preferences shaped by individuals' residential histories. |
| Keywords: | Migration gravity, status quo bias, and job search networks |
| JEL: | J61 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26104 |
| By: | Simon Merschroth (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)); Sarah Lohr (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)); Lisa Thalheimer (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Boston); Barbora Šedová (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), CEPA) |
| Abstract: | Migration is a central feature of development and climate resilience. Yet, it is increasingly framed as a pathway through which climate may affect conflict, despite fragmented and mixed evidence. We systematically review findings from 20 statistical studies to examine: When and how do climate-related migration and immobility influence conflict risk? Beyond synthesizing results, we advance conceptual thinking on the studied relationships and provide methodological guidance for future research. We find no general effect of climate-related migration on conflict, neither positively nor negatively. This confirms existing theory. Instead, effects are highly context-dependent and vary by migration and conflict characteristics. Adaptive migration can increase risks of armed conflict and civil unrest at destinations, under specific (environmental, social, or political) conditions, while reducing armed conflict at origins by acting as an escape valve. Evidence on displacement is exclusively destination focused, suggesting that flood- and storm-related displacement can raise risks of armed conflict incidence rather than onset, civil unrest in economically developing countries, and interpersonal conflict. Overall, literature is recent, topically narrow, and geographically uneven, with a strong focus on Africa. Key knowledge gaps concern mechanisms and contextual factors, conflict actors, low intensity conflicts, effects on peace, as well as the impacts of immobility and planned relocation. We further identify conceptual inconsistencies and methodological pitfalls that may bias existing evidence and outline strategies to address them. By clarifying when and how climate-related migration shapes conflict risks, this review supports evidence-based decision making that leverages migration as a successful climate adaptation in support of sustainable development and peace. |
| Keywords: | climate migration, conflict, systematic review |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 D74 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:99 |
| By: | Alberto Bisin; Giulia Tura |
| Abstract: | We study cultural integration as an equilibrium outcome of marital matching along cultural and education lines and intra-household investment decisions regarding fertility and cultural socialization. We show that our marriage model allows us to identify cultural-ethnic group specific investment parameters as well as spousal preferences for marital matching. Structural estimates fit the data well and reveal a strong demand to preserve cultural identity on the part of immigrants as well as limited acceptance of the immigrants' cultural diversity on the part of natives. Furthermore, these estimates reveal a substantial heterogeneity of the parental value of children's education across cultures. Nonetheless, our estimates imply substantial - though heterogeneous - cultural integration rates across immigrant groups in simulations. |
| Keywords: | Marital Matching, Fertility, Cultural Transmission, Integration. |
| JEL: | D1 J12 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2573 |
| By: | Azizbek Tokhirov; Riga Qi; Trang Thanh Tran |
| Abstract: | How does an episode of forced displacement affect the subjective well-being of victims upon their return? To answer this question, we study the weeklong inter-ethnic conflict that occurred in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, using individual survey data for 2006–2019. Our baseline analysis compares conflict-affected displaced individuals with unaffected individuals while controlling for observable characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of displacement, we complement these estimates with an instrumental-variables strategy based on household-level geographic features, including proximity to conflict-related destruction and the availability of nearby locations suitable for temporary hiding. We also use a difference-in-differences design to trace changes in local subjective well-being over time. Our results show that even short-term displacement is associated with a substantial decline in postconflict subjective well-being. This negative effect is attenuated among individuals who received support from family and friends during displacement. The effects also vary markedly across dimensions of subjective well-being, with the strongest negative impacts observed for satisfaction with dwelling, health, security, and future prospects. Although the subjective well-being of displaced individuals gradually converges toward that of non-displaced individuals, recovery is slow and takes several years. |
| Keywords: | forced displacement, subjective well-being, inter-ethnic conflict |
| JEL: | D6 I31 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp819 |
| By: | Steeve Mongrain, Federico Revelli, Tanguy van Ypersele and Roberto Zotti (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | This paper models theoretically and tests empirically the hypothesis that the decision about the location of a public bad within a multi-tiered structure of government (a facility providing benefits throughout the federation but inflicting damage to the region hosting it) can be driven by strategic electoral considerations exploiting the heterogeneous migration responses to the location of the public bad by voters of different ideologies - a sort of mobility-based gerrymandering. As long as the average utility loss from living close to the public bad is larger for progressives than it is for conservatives, conservative and progressive central governments will pursue opposite strategies. The former locate the public bad in an electorally tight region to induce progressive voters to exit and gain the region for the conservative party, while the latter attempt to spread progressive voters out of safe and into electorally tight regions. An application to waste treatment plant locations across Italian municipalities returns evidence in support of the model’s main hypotheses. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp26-07 |