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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Catia Batista; Lara Bohnet; Jules Gazeaud; Julia Seither |
| Abstract: | International migration can promote development in both origin and destination countries. We hypothesize that migrant integration in destination countries is an important constraint on these gains. Using a randomized controlled trial, we study the effects of a low-cost, scalable digital intervention designed to reduce information frictions among Cape Verdean immigrants in Portugal. Access to the intervention improves migrants’ labor market outcomes, legal status, social integration with native-born individuals, and aspirations. These integration gains generate international spillovers, increasing political participation and leading to more egalitarian gender norms in the migrants’ origin-country. Leveraging variation in official destination country electoral data, we show that political participation transmits through increased exposure of better-integrated migrants to prevalent local norms at destination. These international turnout spillovers are weaker in localities with higher far-right support, consistent with a less migrant welcoming political climate attenuating norm diffusion. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Migrant integration, Randomized field experiment, Employment, Immigrant regularization, Remittances, Voting, Gender norms |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2503 |
| By: | Yoonjung Kim (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Young Jun Lee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, European Union (EU) enlargement has substantially altered the continent’s economic and political landscape by lowering barriers to trade, labor mobility, and capital flows. Migration emerges as a central factor in this transformation, especially following the accession of Central and Eastern European countries. This enlargement has intensified interest among policymakers and researchers in the factors driving intra-European migration and its economic and social implications.<p> This study specifically investigates the interplay between EU enlargement, the Freedom of Movement (FOM) agreements, and Brexit on labor mobility. Although EU enlargement has generally been associated with deeper economic and political integration, its most profound impact may lie in facilitating international migration. By distinguishing between the timing and impact of EU membership and the Freedom of Movement (FOM) agreements—often introduced at different times— the analysis provides a nuanced view of their respective roles.<p> Employing a gravity model framework with Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation and a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, this study examines bilateral migration flows across 224 origin-destination country pairs. The results reveal that EU membership significantly increases migration flows, particularly from newer to older member states, indicating a pronounced east-to-west asymmetry. This effect remains robust after accounting for FOM implementation, and further robustness checks confirm the consistency of the findings under different policy timelines and the inclusion of external mobility agreements.<p> Additionally, the study explores the impact of Brexit on return migration, uncovering a substantial rise in flows from the UK to EU member countries—especially those that joined after 2000—following the 2016 referendum. These patterns highlight the heterogeneous and asymmetric effects of different EU migration policies and suggest that Brexit exerts a stronger influence on return migration than FOM.<p> Consequently, the findings highlight the importance of policy-specific analysis in capturing the complexities of migration responses to institutional changes within the EU. |
| Keywords: | international migration; EU enlargement; Brexit; gravity model; immigration policies |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J48 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:022485 |
| By: | Zonszein, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | How do legal institutions shape immigrant incorporation? A growing literature documents how unauthorized status shapes structural incorporation---channeling undocumented immigrants into precarious labor markets, deterring engagement with public institutions---but has had less to say about cultural consequences. I argue that legalization enables simultaneous structural participation and cultural expression among undocumented immigrants. Under unauthorized status, institutional barriers constrain structural participation, while deportation threat compels legal passing, the concealment of ethnic markers to avoid detection. Legalization reverses both dynamics. Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs, I examine DACA (2012) and IRCA (1986). Both policies improve structural participation (English ability, employment, civic participation), while enabling cultural expression (reflected in naming distinctiveness). The cultural effect is strongest in high-deportation contexts, consistent with the abandonment of legal passing. When enforcement threat is removed, undocumented immigrants reveal cultural preferences suppressed by the costs of concealment, complementing existing accounts of cultural expression as reactive or instrumental. |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q9wbd_v2 |
| By: | Patrick Coate; Kyle Mangum |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the declining trend in internal migration in the United States is primarily due to increasing home attachment in “fast locations, ” areas with relatively high rates of population turnover. These locations were population growth destinations in the 20th century, with transient populations that settled as regional population growth converged. The qualitative patterns of the U.S. experience can be generated by a model of location choice in heterogeneous regions with overlapping generations when the population has a home bias that varies endogenously with the history of population change. Using a novel measure of home attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify channels of the mobility decline. Rising home attachment accounts for much of the decline, predominantly in fast locations. Population aging explains most of the remainder but in a more spatially neutral way. |
| Keywords: | declining internal migration; labor mobility; home attachment; rootedness; local ties; conditional choice probability estimation |
| JEL: | J61 R23 R11 C50 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103190 |
| By: | Hannah Slocombe; Francisco Rowe; Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | High-skilled migration drives the global circulation of scientific talent and underpins knowledge production and innovation. Yet, internal and international migration have typically been analysed separately, leaving their combined dynamics poorly understood. Here, we present a unified global analysis of researcher migration across 1, 941 subnational regions in 211 countries and territories from 2005 to 2020. Using bibliometric data as a source of digital trace data, specifically changes in author’s affiliations, from over 33 million journal articles and reviews by more than 19 million authors, we trace annual sequences of internal and international gain, drain, and stability. We identify five distinct trajectories of researcher migration that capture the evolution of brain gain and drain at subnational scales. These trajectories reveal that patterns of gain and loss coexist within many countries, including major scientific hubs, highlighting uneven internal dynamics of attraction and decline. Additionally, we explore national-level factors associated with these trends. We find that OECD membership, research and development (R&D) expenditure, and population size are the strongest correlates of these migration trajectories. By integrating internal and international migration into a unified framework, this study enables the identification and monitoring of areas where scientific capacity is expanding or declining. This evidence can be used to guide targeted interventions and spatially balanced investment in talent to reduce geographic disparities. |
| Keywords: | Global, World, computational demography, computational social science, internal migration, international migration |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-018 |
| By: | Molina, Teresa (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Siegal, Nicole (Indiana University); Choi, Jaehyun (Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether and how migration decisions respond to state-level changes in abortion policy in the United States. Using information on gestational age limit abortion restrictions and interstate migration from 2006-2019, we estimate a gravity model of migration. We predict bilateral migration flows using gestational age restrictions in the origin and destination states, a variety of economic, demographic, and political control variables for both states, as well as state-pair and year fixed effects. While out-migration does not respond to gestational age restrictions, in-migration does: individuals are significantly less likely to move to states that implement a 20-week gestational age limit (the most restrictive policy in our study period). Heterogeneity analysis reveals similar effects for men and women, and large effects for women past reproductive age, suggesting these effects are driven at least in part by ideological preferences, not just the potential future need for an abortion. Results are robust to the use of an extended two-way fixed effects (ETWFE) estimator that accounts for heterogeneous treatment effects with staggered treatment adoption in non-linear models. |
| Keywords: | abortion restrictions, gestational age limits, interstate migration |
| JEL: | I18 R23 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18615 |
| By: | Vargas, Juan F.; Sviatschi, Maria Micaela; Cabra-Ruiz, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the mutually reinforcing relationship between migration and organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. We argue that mobility and criminal governance are part of an interdependent system in which organized crime generates displacement through violence, extortion, and territorial control, while migration flows create new routes for criminal actors to expand geographically as well as new markets that they exploit for profit. We propose a novel conceptual framework to account for this feedback loop and analyze the available empirical evidence through its lens, which allows us to both formalize the mechanisms linking migration and organized crime and inform policy avenues. While the evidence suggests that migrants as individuals are largely victims of organized crime, large-scale mobility can also facilitate the expansion of criminal organizations. We hypothesize that, by reinforcing incomplete narratives that associate migration with insecurity, the latter dynamics dominate the former in shaping public perceptions in the region and encourage restrictive policies that heighten irregularity and migrants’ exposure to predation. We show that information campaigns can partially correct seemingly biased perceptions and policy design crucially mediates the migration–crime nexus. Specifically, regularization and protection programs can reduce migrants’ vulnerability and organized crime’s profits, whereas deterrence and exclusion may strengthen illicit markets. The findings underscore the need for coordinated regional responses that combine rights-based migration management with strengthened state capacity to confront organized crime. |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p4b5w_v1 |
| By: | Kassaballi, Zouhier |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a low-cost intervention combining Mobile-Assisted Language Learning (MALL) with behavioral economics insights, specifically motivational framing and near-peer role models. Using a randomized controlled trial among 317 migrants and refugees in German integration courses across six cities, I examine whether such an intervention can shift learning behavior and improve German language proficiency. The intervention raised adoption of the official state-recommended app "Ankommen" from 5% to 46% and doubled daily mobile learning time from 15 to 30 minutes. Intention-to-treat estimates show treatment increased self-reported German proficiency by 0.3 standard deviations, while Complier Average Causal Effect estimates indicate actual MALL adoption improved language skills by 0.76 to 0.83 standard deviations. These findings demonstrate that a brief, replicable encouragement intervention can meaningfully complement formal language instruction at negligible cost, offering a scalable policy tool for integration programs across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Mobile-Assisted Language Learning, Migration, Integration, Language Acquisition, Randomized Controlled Trial |
| JEL: | C93 I29 J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129066 |
| By: | Beber, Bernd; Ebert, Cara; Murken, Niklas; Riaz, Zara |
| Abstract: | Out-migration is a common feature of rural life in the Global South, yet its effects on social networks in origin communities remain underexplored. Drawing on original data from nearly 10, 000 households in 145 villages in Senegal, this paper presents observational evidence linking household migration status to social ties in sending areas. Migrant households maintain significantly more local social connections than non-migrant households, driven by stronger ties among migrants and by inward links to migrant households. This heightened connectivity cannot be explained solely by economic resources; instead, it appears to be shaped by non-material factors such as access to information. These findings do not support the hypothesis of disintegration of rural communities due to migration. However, social networks are a central feature of rural life and by shifting attention from destination- to origin-area networks, the paper broadens the understanding of migration's social impacts. |
| Abstract: | Abwanderung ist ein weit verbreitetes Phänomen im ländlichen Raum des Globalen Südens, doch ihre Auswirkungen auf soziale Netzwerke in den Herkunftsgemeinden sind bislang kaum erforscht. Auf der Grundlage von Originaldaten aus fast 10.000 Haushalten in 145 Dörfern im Senegal präsentiert dieser Beitrag Beobachtungsdaten, die einen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Migrationsstatus von Haushalten und den sozialen Bindungen in den Herkunftsgebieten herstellen. Migrantenhaushalte pflegen deutlich mehr lokale soziale Kontakte als Nicht-Migrantenhaushalte, was auf stärkere Bindungen unter Migranten und auf Verbindungen zu Migrantenhaushalten zurückzuführen ist. Diese erhöhte Vernetzung lässt sich nicht allein durch wirtschaftliche Ressourcen erklären, sondern scheint vielmehr durch immaterielle Faktoren wie den Zugang zu Informationen geprägt zu sein. Diese Ergebnisse stützen nicht die Hypothese einer Desintegration ländlicher Gemeinschaften aufgrund von Migration. Soziale Netzwerke sind jedoch ein zentrales Merkmal des ländlichen Lebens, und indem die Aufmerksamkeit von den Netzwerken in den Zielgebieten auf die Netzwerke in den Herkunftsgebieten verlagert wird, erweitert die Studie das Verständnis der sozialen Auswirkungen der Migration. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Network Analysis, Household Networks, Senegal |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:341104 |
| By: | Helen Dempster; Thomas Ginn |
| Abstract: | Since its creation in 2017, the World Bank’s Window for Host Communities and Refugees (WHR) has committed almost $5.5 billion to 21 low-income, refugee-hosting countries. The WHR represents a major shift in global displacement financing: moving from short-term humanitarian assistance toward medium- and long-term development solutions that integrate refugees into labor markets and national services. This paper examines the WHR’s history, design, and impact, drawing on data from 100 WHR-funded projects, as well as qualitative interviews with stakeholders from the World Bank, UNHCR, governments, and refugee-led organizations. We find that WHR financing has supported significant de jure and de facto policy reforms in several countries—including new refugee laws in Ethiopia, Chad, and Kenya—and growing inclusion in national education, health, and social protection systems. However, progress has been uneven. Limited internal capacity and incentives to address sensitive issues around refugees’ inclusion, combined with a lack of coordination with external actors, has led to missed opportunities for additional, significant reforms. Further, instead of rewarding the most inclusive countries, the most restrictive countries have to date received the largest commitments per refugee. We argue that the WHR remains one of the most promising instruments for achieving refugee inclusion in protracted contexts but must strengthen its leverage, incentives, accountability, and collaborations to sustain impact. As donor budgets tighten and needs grow, a strong WHR is critical to delivering durable solutions for both refugees and host communities. |
| Date: | 2026–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:390 |
| By: | Rivadeneira, Alex (Banco de Mexico); Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run intergenerational effects of concertaje, a widespread forced labor system in the Americas from the Spanish colonial era that coerced indigenous workers in rural estates (haciendas) after causing them to become indebted. We collected and digitized the universe of historical individual-level tax records (1800) in what is today Ecuador and connected them to likely descendants using the universe of contemporary (2010s) tax returns and census registries via surnames. We find that descendants from concertaje earn 16 percent less formal labor income vis-Ã -vis descendants from uncoerced indigenous workers. Because of the distortions created by the institution, descendants from concertaje are less educated, more likely to work in agriculture and the informal sector, and less prone to migrate. However, the effects of concertaje on immigrants are milder, suggesting migration acted as a mitigation channel. |
| Keywords: | institutions, persistence, forced labor, intergenerational mobility, Ecuador |
| JEL: | N36 O10 O43 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18614 |
| By: | Teufel, Julia (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Beeder, Monica |
| Abstract: | Temporary migrants power key industries in many countries, yet often face poor working conditions. Vulnerability to such conditions is increased by limited knowledge of workplace rights, language barriers, and, in some cases, lack of prior work experience. One common policy response is the use of information interventions aimed at increasing rights awareness and empowering migrants to seek better working conditions where choice is possible. Despite their widespread use, evidence on their effectiveness remains limited. We present results from a randomized controlled trial evaluating a workplace rights information intervention in a longitudinal study of temporary migrants in Australia. Using multilingual online surveys, we recruited a diverse sample of workers across sectors that were understudied to date. Consistent with previous research, workers with limited rights awareness, and little prior work experience experienced worse employment conditions. While the intervention increased participants’ perceived sense of control over workplace decisions, workplace rights knowledge increased in both treatment and control groups over time. Increased rights knowledge was associated with improved working conditions, particularly among workers with limited English proficiency and less prior work experience. However, structural constraints, including dependence on employers for visa extension requirements, may limit the extent to which information alone can improve outcomes. These findings suggest that information interventions alone may be insufficient without complementary measures addressing institutional vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | temporary migration, working conditions, exploitation, working rights knowledge |
| JEL: | C93 D83 J28 J47 J83 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2026003 |
| By: | Folke, Olle (Stockholm School of Economics); Rickne, Johanna (Swedish Institute for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | First-generation immigrants face a seniority ceiling that limits their political incorporation as candidates and officeholders. Career ladders that require qualification time in lower positions create structural barriers for this group. We use linked data from Swedish electoral ballots and administrative records to examine this idea. A novel identification strategy isolates the effect of seniority-based promotion structures from immigrant-specific disadvantages by comparing immigrants’ incorporation patterns to those of internal movers—native-born Swedes who relocate between municipalities. The seniority ceiling explains about half of the immigrant-native gap in holding political positions and almost the entire gradient of worsening incorporation at higher levels. We find strong selection effects at both the individual and group level. The seniority ceiling restricts incorporation at higher career steps for those with fewer opportunities to accumulate qualification time: those who arrived more recently or at older ages. |
| Keywords: | immigration, political representation, political candidacy, political careers |
| JEL: | D02 H10 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18638 |
| By: | Sam Huckstep (Center for Global Development); Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom’s 2025 immigration reforms will restrict access to Skilled Worker visas for “mid-skill” occupations unless they are retained on a revised shortage list. This raises an important policy question: which occupations should continue to receive access, given the limits of domestic labour supply and the effects of labour shortages on the government’s industrial strategy objectives? This paper brings together Home Office visa data, Department for Education apprenticeship data, and Migration Advisory Committee labour demand indicators to assess where Skilled Worker visas function as a critical source of new trained labour and where domestic training pipelines are least able to respond quickly to additional demand. We show that dependence on visas varies substantially across occupations and sectors. For many roles, the loss of visa access would create a significant supply shock that could not readily be offset through apprenticeships, particularly given long training lead times and weak completion rates. We further show that recent reductions in visa recruitment have not been matched by increases in apprenticeship starts, suggesting that domestic training may not automatically scale to replace visa flows, at least in the short run. In this context the government must consider its tolerance for demand destruction in the interim. We finally construct an index ranking occupations for continued visa access across multiple factors, for use as an input in visa prioritisation decisions. The strongest case for continued visa access is where occupations combine high dependence on skilled migration, constrained domestic pipelines, strong labour demand, and strategic importance. These dynamics are especially salient in parts of the clean energy workforce, where labour shortages may impede delivery of wider policy goals. |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:391 |
| By: | Bradley, Jake (University of Nottingham); Albornoz, Facundo (University of Nottingham); Sonderegger, Silvia (University of Nottingham); Rodríguez, Jesús (University of Nottingham); Rustagi, Devesh (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | There are concerns over the rise in populism and hate crimes targeting minorities in democracies. We examine whether national information shocks triggered by political events play a role. Focusing on two UK events that revealed nationwide anti-immigrant sentiment, we document counterintuitive results: large persistent surges in hate crimes in the post-event periods in areas with pro-immigrant, rather than anti-immigrant, attitudes. We show that the xenophobic minority residing in pro-immigrant areas experience stronger belief shocks from these events, inducing them to update their beliefs about social acceptability of hate. Our findings highlight how heterogeneous priors interact with national events to amplify xenophobic behavior. |
| Keywords: | Information shocks, attitudes towards immigrants, hate crimes, United Kingdom JEL Classification: C72, D80, P0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:802 |
| By: | Fieles-Ahmad, Omar (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Kvasnicka, Michael (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg) |
| Abstract: | Following reunification, anti-foreigner crimes rose sharply in the former GDR. Using county-level data for the early 1990s, we study if regional access to Western TV, i.e. non-socialist media, prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall had an impact on regional levels of serious anti-foreigner crime (murder and arson) in East Germany. We find that East German counties with no access to Western TV exhibit higher rates of such crimes, as in the ’valley of the clueless’ around Dresden. This crime-attenuating effect of Western TV proves robust in a battery of robustness checks and underscores the importance of media for anti-foreigner attitudes and crimes well before the rise of the internet and social media. |
| Keywords: | crimes against foreigners, Western TV, immigration, East Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18648 |
| By: | Hadah, Hussain (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | I estimate the causal impact of the US Secure Communities (SC) program, which expanded deportation risk nationwide, on Hispanic suicide rates. Using the staggered county rollout (2008–2013) and a triple difference-in-differences design, I identify heterogeneous effects relative to non-Hispanic Whites. Among adults 34 and older, SC increases suicides by 2 percent, driven entirely by men, who experience a 12 percent rise, while women see declines. Effects are strongest for men 45 and older. I find that local employment conditions likely drive these effects, as lower unemployment mitigates impacts and deaths of despair among Hispanic men rise substantially. |
| Keywords: | immigration enforcement, sanctuary cities, rising Hispanic suicide rates |
| JEL: | I14 I18 J15 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18613 |
| By: | Pierre Boutros (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG (UMR 7321), France); Michele Pezzoni (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG (UMR 7321), France and Observatoire des Sciences et Techniques, HCERES, France); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG (UMR 7321), France, OFCE, Sciences Po, France, and SKEMA Business School, France); Sonia Paty (Université Lumière Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE (UMR 5824), Lyon, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the factors predicting the destination choice of mobile researchers. To do so, we use a unique dataset on researchers’ mobility between labs within the largest French public research organization from 2012 to 2022. We find that relational links, namely citation and co-authorship links between mobile researchers and destination lab members, are among the strongest predictors of researchers’ destination choices. Specifically, a citation link prior to mobility between a researcher and a lab is associated with a 3.7 percentage-point higher probability that the researcher chooses that lab as a destination, while a co-authorship link is associated with a 9.8 percentage-point higher probability. We argue that citation and co-authorship links are highly relevant because they serve as information channels to help address substantial information asymmetry between researchers and potential destination labs before mobility. We further find that citation links are better predictors of destination choice when the cognitive distance between the researcher and the lab is high, whereas co-authorship plays a stronger role when the cognitive distance is low. Finally, we find that other lab characteristics, such as the size, productivity, and funding availability, are less relevant to the destination choice. |
| Keywords: | Mobile researchers; Internal labor markets; Information asymmetry; Destination choice |
| JEL: | D83 J61 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2605 |