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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Sandra Sequeira |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital and occupational shifts, focusing on the Mozambican civil war (1977 - 1992), during which millions of civilians were forcibly displaced to the countryside, cities, and neighboring countries. Reconstructing the movements of the entire population during the civil war, we examine the consequences of multiple displacement trajectories within a unified framework. First, we characterize the education and sectoral employment of the universe of (non)displaced. Second, we exploit variation in displacement experiences among extended kin members during their school-going years to account for shared household characteristics. Displacement is associated with significant gains in education. Third, employing a “movers design, ” we show that minors displaced earlier to better districts experienced an increase in educational attainment. Focusing on moves during the intensification of the war and when comparing members of the same household, regional childhood exposure effects remain strong, whereas spatial sorting vanishes. Fourth, we jointly estimate place-based, spatial sorting, and uprootedness effects, showing that all forces are at play. Fifth, a small survey in Mozambique’s largest north- ern city reveals long-term effects: internally displaced report higher education than their siblings who stayed behind, but lower social capital and worse mental health relative to locals. Our findings demonstrate that displacement shocks can foster human capital accumulation, even in very low-income settings, albeit at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2508 |
| By: | Jean Lacroix; Ricardo Piqué |
| Abstract: | Conflict-driven internal displacements are a common yet understudied phenomenon. We explore the political consequences of such displacements on hosting communities using the case of the forced evacuation of Alsatians to the French interior at the start of WWII. Our identification strategy leverages exogenous variations in exposure to evacuees generated by unexpected deviations from the French evacuation plan. Municipalities that were to receive evacuees from the front zone, a strip of land between the Maginot Line and the French-German border, received a larger-than-expected number of evacuees relative to others. Increased exposure to Alsatian evacuees led to greater support for left-of-center parties after WWII. Additional evidence suggests that an identity response to contact with a co-national but culturally different out-group explains these results. |
| Keywords: | internal displacements, electoral outcomes, identity, WWII, France |
| JEL: | D72 D74 N44 P00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12314 |
| By: | Joop Age Harm Adema |
| Abstract: | Far-right parties frequently mobilize anti-refugee sentiment during periods of high asylum migration. Prior work shows that exposure to transit routes and regional inflows tends to raise far-right support, whereas direct local contact with asylum seekers can dampen it. Yet much of the sharp rise in far-right voting around major refugee waves remains unexplained by actual inflows. I study a Dutch policy reform, the Dispersal Act, which obligated municipalities to host asylum seekers and thereby generated a sudden, plausibly exogenous increase in expected future local inflows. Comparing changes in far-right vote shares between not-yet and already hosting municipalities before the actual arrival of asylum seekers allows me to isolate the electoral effect of heightened expectations of future hosting. I find that affected municipalities experienced a substantial increase in far-right support following the Act’s passage. The effect operates on both the extensive margin (whether municipalities expect to host) and the intensive margin (how many they expect to host): a one-percentage-point increase in allocated asylum-seeker share raises far-right vote shares by about 1.2 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, far-right voting, group threat, migration |
| JEL: | D72 F22 H75 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12312 |
| By: | Christopher Blair (Princeton University); Benjamin Krick (Duke University); Austin L. Wright (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure†sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict. |
| Keywords: | maximum pressure sanctions; migrants; Afghanistan; Taliban; insurgent violence; economic shocks; conflict dynamics; forced displacement; sanctions policy; Iran |
| JEL: | F51 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:39 |
| By: | Pierre-Louis Vézina; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Piotr Lewandowski |
| Abstract: | We examine business creation by Ukrainian refugees in Poland following the Russian invasion. We find that Ukrainians started 38, 833 firms in 2022–23, accounting for 7% of all registrations. Our survey shows that 58% of post-invasion Ukrainian founders are refugees, and cross-county regressions show that a 10% increase in adult male Ukrainian refugees is associated with a 2.7% increase in Ukrainian firm registrations. We then show that new Ukrainian businesses stimulate Polish entrepreneurship. Using a shift-share strategy based on refugee shocks and Ukrainians’ comparative advantage, we find that a 10% increase in Ukrainian registrations led to 2.3% more Polish firms. |
| Keywords: | migration, firms, entrepreneurship, multiplier |
| JEL: | F22 L26 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp072025 |
| By: | Thomas Baudin; Yajna Govind; Simone Moriconi |
| Abstract: | Do symbolic aspects of integration policies affect migrants’ integration into the host society? In this paper, we study the effects of a symbolic change in birthright citizenship rules in France that requires second-generation immigrants to state their allegiance on their integration. Adopting a Difference-in-Differences approach, we show that, contrary to its stated aim of fostering a greater sense of belonging, this policy led to a loss of national identity and an increase in perceptions of discrimination among the target group. We document that these effects are not driven by changes in naturalization rates or an increased general hostility. We also show that while the reform did not affect their economic or political integration, it did reduce their cultural integration, as measured by religiosity and naming patterns. Overall, rather than promoting integration, such migration policies can lead to a backlash. |
| Keywords: | naturalization, migrant integration, policy backlash, national identity |
| JEL: | J1 J15 J21 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12362 |
| By: | Yishan Liu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Junyi Shen (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impact of risk attitudes and endowment effects on migration decisions under different motivations and migration distance conditions, focusing on the variability between short- and long-distance migration. Using data from Australia, we compare two measures of risk attitudes—a continuous risk index and a categorical risk threshold approach—and further test these effects in conjunction with household-level cluster analysis. The findings suggest that the effects of risk attitudes on migration decisions are likely to operate in long-distance migration when motivation is considered. In addition, we demonstrate that the endowment effect does not play a role in long-distance but plays a key role in short-distance migration decisions. Furthermore, we introduce a clustering-based analysis to reveal the impact of variations in family background on migration decisions. We find that the differences in coefficient estimates between the clustering and main models is negligible, indicating that the results of the main model remain robust and reliable after accounting for potential group differences. |
| Keywords: | Migration decision; Risk attitude; Endowment effect; Clustering-based analysis; Logit model |
| JEL: | D81 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-34 |
| By: | Fausto Galli (Department of Economics and Statistics - University of Salerno - Italy and CELPE); Daniel Santiago Quinones Roa (Department of Economics, University of Cyprus); Giuseppe Russo (Department of Economics and Statistics - University of Salerno - Italy and CELPE); Ruzica Savcic (Department of Economics, University of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the evolution of ethnic identity among immigrants in Germany. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), the study applies transition-based models to estimate the probabilities of moving between four identity types defined by Berry (1997): integration, assimilation, separation, and marginalization. The results reveal substantial persistence in ethnic identity, particularly for integrated and separated migrants, and show that identity trajectories became more entrenched after 2015. |
| JEL: | J15 J61 C33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:021914 |
| By: | Massimo Anelli, Paolo Pinotti, Zachary Porrecw |
| Abstract: | We study the short- and long-term effects of organized crime across neighborhoods in U.S. cities by exploiting the migration of Sicilian Mafia members in the 1920s who fled a large-scale repression campaign in Italy. Using newly linked administrative and historical data from the U.S. Census, Social Security records, and declassified files of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics, we show that neighborhoods hosting enclaves of migrants from Sicilian towns targeted by the repression later became centers of Italo-American Mafia activity. These neighborhoods experienced higher violence, incarceration, and financial exclusion in the short run, but higher educational attainment and employment in the long run. The results suggest that while the arrival of organized criminal networks initially intensified conflict and exclusion, their subsequent consolidation generated localized economic spillovers, helping to explain the long-term resilience and persistence of organized crime. |
| Keywords: | Electoral Rules, Immigration, Salience |
| JEL: | D72 J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25259 |
| By: | Abi Adams (Northwestern University); Oguz Bayraktar (Department of Economics, University of Bath); Thomas H. Jørgensen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Hamish Low (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Alessandra Voena (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Joint custody following divorce is widespread, but implementation is costly when individuals live in different states and so affects interstate mobility. Migration of separated fathers has fallen significantly more than married fathers. We show the causal effect of joint custody using two strategies. First, we survey separated parents to elicit beliefs about the likelihood of interstate moves. Second, we use the staggered adoption of joint custody laws across US states, and show a reduction in actual migration of 11 percentage points for fathers. For mothers, there is no impact on mobility but suggestive evidence of beneficial labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Child Custody; Divorce. |
| JEL: | D10 R23 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2516 |
| By: | Schiff, Maurice |
| Abstract: | I examine the impact of population growth and endogenous migration on renewable natural resources (NR) and welfare in a general equilibrium model with two sectors - a commodity and a manufacturing sector, and with two inputs - labor and NR. Under population growth and no migration, a country's NR and welfare are unchanged (increase) (decline and eventually collapse) over time for constant (increasing) (decreasing) returns to scale in the manufacturing sector, i.e., for ϕ = (>)( |
| Keywords: | Migration, Population growth, Renewable natural resources (NR), Impact on NR and welfare |
| JEL: | F16 F18 Q27 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1701 |
| By: | Yizhi Xu; Fan Zhang; Rongyu Cui; Ding Hua |
| Abstract: | Household savings in China are markedly higher than in peer economies, which have been channeled into financing excessive investment. This paper examines the structural and cyclical factors contributing to China’s elevated household savings. The analysis suggests that low government social spending in rural areas and residency (“Hukou”) restrictions in urban areas play a significant role in increasing household savings. In addition, the paper provides evidence that fluctuations in real estate prices significantly impact household savings, both through the wealth effect and the downpayment effect (i.e., need for non-homeowners to save so as to afford downpayments), though the latter channel has weakened after the recent real estate market correction. These findings suggest that further strengthening social safety nets, continuing Hukou reforms, and policies that promote a more efficient transition for the housing market can help reduce household savings and boost private consumption, thus facilitating China’s economic rebalancing. |
| Keywords: | Household saving; precautionary saving; social safety net; demographics; migrant workers; homeownership |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/259 |