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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Pfeifer, Teika; Lafleur, Jean-Michel; Marfouk, Abdeslam |
| Abstract: | Extensive research has identified multiple factors shaping public attitudes toward immigration. Building on theories of relative deprivation, this article contributes to this literature by arguing that perceptions of immigrants' preferential and unfair treatment relative to both native-born citizens and homeless people play a central role in shaping immigration policy preferences toward immigrants from both poorer and richer countries. Using data from an original nationally representative survey, we find that nearly four in ten native-born Belgians (38%) believe immigrants are treated better than native-born citizens, and six in ten (60%) perceive immigrants as privileged relative to homeless people. Our results show that both perceived native-born relative deprivation and perceptions of immigrants' privilege vis-à-vis homeless people are statistically significant and robust predictors of support for restrictive immigration policy toward migrants from both poorer and richer countries. We also found that the belief that immigrants are treated more favourably than native-born citizens exerts a stronger influence on support for restrictive immigration policy toward migrants from poorer countries than immigrants from richer countries. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Attitudes Toward Immigrants, Relative Deprivation Theory, Immigration Policy Preferences, Public Opinion analysis |
| JEL: | F22 J18 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1797 |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Using employer-employee Italian data over the period 1998-2018 we analyze the impact of the largest regularization of undocumented immigrant workers in Italy on wage, employment and mobility outcomes of natives. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of the 2002 Bossi-Fini law that unexpectedly regularized 634, 000 undocumented non-EU immigrants, with variation across firms and provinces that was not correlated with previous economic performance. We find that the policy had a small effect on the average wage of native workers and positive effects on their employment at the local labor market level. Additionally, native co-workers in firms more affected by the policy were more likely to change employers in the post-policy period. Such higher mobility resulted in a heterogeneous wage effect across switchers: workers that managed to transition towards better firms experienced wage gains in the medium- and long-run, while other workers experienced wage losses. This implied an increase in wage dispersion for natives and some losers among Italian workers. |
| Keywords: | workers, firms, immigrant regularization, local labor market |
| JEL: | F16 J20 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12817 |
| By: | Docquier, Frédéric; Rapoport, Hillel |
| Abstract: | We investigate the bidirectional relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing dynamic process where anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the average education and skill level of immigrants. The deterioration in the ratio of high-skill to low-skill immigrants in turn fuels populist support and anti-immigration attitudes, creating what we call “the vicious circle of xenophobia†. We review some historical and contemporary studies that are suggestive of such vicious circle. In particular, recent cross-country evidence shows that low-skill immigration tends to exacerbate populism, while high-skill immigration tends to mitigate it. Conversely, populist policies and xenophobic attitudes have a strong repulsive effect on highly-skilled immigrants and result in adverse immigrant selection. We use the empirical results from those studies to inform a theoretical model of joint determination of immigrants’ skill-ratio and right-wing populism levels. The model displays multiple equilibria, with the inferior equilibrium – corresponding to our vicious circle - characterised by high levels of right-wing populism and a high proportion of low-skill workers among immigrants. In this framework, structural trends such as internet penetration, economic erosion of the middle class, demographic pressure from poor countries as well as adverse cyclical shocks make the good, efficient equilibrium less likely and the inferior equilibrium of explosive populism and deteriorated immigrants’ skill-ratio more likely. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | D72 F22 F52 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20028 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Adrij; Singhal, Karan |
| Abstract: | The 1947 Partition of British India triggered the largest forced migration of the twentieth century, redistributing millions of refugees across newly independent India. We study whether this demographic shock left a lasting imprint on democratic politics. Combining district-level refugee shares from the 1951 Census with constituency-level electoral data covering Indian state assembly elections between 1960 and 2007, we estimate the long-run effects of refugee settlement on electoral competition. We find that constituencies exposed to larger refugee inflows exhibit higher voter turnout, narrower victory margins, and a lower likelihood of electing candidates from national parties. Instead, refugee settlement shifted electoral support toward regional parties and contributed to the long-run denationalization of political competition. Our findings show that large demographic shocks can leave enduring political legacies, reshaping patterns of political representation and party competition long after displacement itself has ended. |
| Keywords: | Partition of India, forced migration, electoral competition, political persistence |
| JEL: | D72 J15 N35 N45 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1795 |
| By: | Mariam Camarero (Universitat Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.); Cecilio Tamarit (University of Valencia, INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II. Avenida dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain.); Iryna Viazmikina (University Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of international migration to the European Union using bilateral migration stocks from 99 origin countries to 19 EU destinations over the period 2000–2017. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging within a high-dimensional gravity framework, jointly evaluating economic, demographic, institutional, trade, policy, and proximity-based determinants under model uncertainty. We account for the multilateral nature of migration decisions by combining high-dimensional fixed effects with common correlated effects while preserving identification. Our results identify a stable core of migration drivers, together with systematic heterogeneity across origin countries by income level. These findings offer new evidence-based guidance for EU migration and integration policies. |
| Keywords: | migrations, variable selection, high-dimensional panels, gravity |
| JEL: | F22 C55 F17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2611 |
| By: | Auerbach, Jan; Keller, Elisa; Neira, Julian; Singhania, Rish |
| Abstract: | Foreign-born and US-born workers sort differently across space. This paper examines how spatial sorting affects US productivity by disentangling the roles of worker productivity and local amenities. Using data on labor market outcomes and new measures of user cost of capital across regions, we identify spatial distributions of local amenities and productivity by worker birthplace, including birth state for US-born workers, in a general form under minimal assumptions. We use a productivity decomposition as a diagnostic tool to isolate channels through which immigration contributes to aggregate TFP. The decomposition applied to US Census data from 1980 to 2018 reveals that amenity-induced spatial sorting is the primary driver of TFP gains from immigration, with the largest share coming from foreign-born workers mitigating the birth-state bias of US-born workers. Counterfactual exercises show that the birth-state-bias-mitigation channel accounts for at least 90% of TFP gains from immigration. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Spatial sorting |
| JEL: | O4 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20197 |
| By: | Pathak Chalise, Prayash; Kostandini, Gentian; Mykerezi, Elton |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of state-level mandatory E-Verify laws on firm performance in labor-dependent sectors, focusing primarily on U.S. agricultural firms. Using the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) dataset, which provides firm-level sales, employment, and geographic information, we analyze more than 14 million farm-year observations from 1990 to 2019 and exploit the staggered adoption of private-sector E-Verify mandates across seven states. Employing multiple causal identification strategies we find consistent evidence that E-Verify significantly reduces both farm sales and employment. On average, sales decline by about 5 percent and employment by about 3 percent after policy implementation, with effects emerging soon after adoption and persisting over time. The impacts are not uniform across firms: small farms and labor-intensive subsectors such as fruits, vegetables, nurseries, and farm labor contractors experience the largest losses, while larger farms appear more resilient, likely due to greater access to mechanization or alternative labor sources. Geographic results further show that farms located far from borders with non-mandating states face larger declines, suggesting that cross-border labor market access partly offsets enforcement effects. Extending the analysis beyond agriculture, we also document negative impacts in hospitality, food service, and construction industries, while placebo sectors such as finance, insurance, and utilities show little measurable effect. Overall, the findings indicate that E-Verify functions as a negative labor supply shock in sectors highly dependent on immigrant labor, reducing firm scale and productive capacity while disproportionately burdening smaller and labor-intensive businesses. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404372 |
| By: | Santiago Caballero, Carlos; Sánchez Alonso, Blanca |
| Abstract: | When a conflict breaks out, some people escape, and others remain. Who can escape, and how does it depend on where they live? The most recent literature suggests that Spanish exiles who moved to Mexico, escaping the effects of the Civil War, were very positively selected in terms of human capital. This paper addresses whether this positive selection was homogeneous all around Spain, or if the ability to escape the war presented regional differences. Using an original database at the microeconomic level created from the Mexican National Registry of Foreigners and estimations of regional stature benchmarks from Spanish military records, we compare the height of each male exile with the average height of the conscripts from the same region and birth cohort. We show that positive selection was indeed high on average, but also that significant regional differences exist. We then test if these differences could be explained by differences in the cost and possibilities to escape. Our results indicate that exiles born in regions farther from international land frontiers were more positively selected. On the other hand, exiles from regions that remained longer under the control of the Republic, with stronger potential networks in Mexico before the war and access to subsidised ships to travel to Mexico, show a lower degree of selection. These findings suggest that forced migrations are not only shaped by the direct effects of repression and violence, but also by the ability of those suffering it to escape. This situation created unequal opportunities: in some regions, escaping became not just a necessity but also a privilege. |
| Keywords: | Anthropometric history; Forced migration; Spanish Civil War; Human capital |
| JEL: | D74 F22 J24 N34 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:50544 |