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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Melanie Morten; Beatriz Magaloni; Sebastián Cubillos; Alice Yiqian Wang |
| Abstract: | In 2024, 315, 000 H-2A temporary seasonal work visas were issued to agricultural workers in the US. The H-2A program is controversial: earnings are high, but critics argue that workers face poor working and living conditions and that families bear the costs of separation. We randomize H-2A seasonal visas for Mexican workers. During a single US season, migrants earn more than USD 16, 000 and send 70% of these earnings to origin households. Living standards in Mexico rise: food security increases, the probability of living in poverty falls by 10 percentage points, and families invest in home improvements, durable assets, and debt reduction, with little investment in businesses or productive assets. Migration has spillovers onto the household: the mental health of household respondents worsens and they avoid higher-risk situations such as walking at night, and intra-household dynamics change. Migrants generally report satisfaction with H-2A jobs and contracts, all report that they would migrate again, and 85% do so the following season. |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J43 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35941 |
| By: | World Bank; Barsbai, Toman; Demirel, Merve; Moskopp, Philipp; Alvarez, Marcello Pérez; Sutter, Matthias |
| Abstract: | This project studies the effects of international educational migration from a low-income country. We evaluate an intervention from an NGO that supports Ugandan students with limited financial means in p ursuing a bachelor’s degree in Germany. Admission to the program may substantially expand students’ economic opportunities by combining the returns to migration to a high-income country with the returns to higher education. We conduct a randomized controlled trial that leverages the NGO’s randomized admissions process among qualified applicants. In addition, we implement a randomized school-based campaign that informs secondary school students in Uganda about the program. Here, we present preliminary evidence on short-term effects. Admission to the program increases applicants’ monthly labor income by about $900 during their first years in Germany, while they are still students and working part-time. Despite the challenges of adapting to a markedly different environment, admission to the program considerably improves the subjective wellbeing of applicants and their parents in Uganda. Admission also raises aspirations among applicants’ siblings and friends in Uganda. The school-based information campaign raises migration intentions and aspirations but has no measurable impact on human capital investments. |
| Date: | 2026–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:212835 |
| By: | David Zuchowski; Mateus Maciel |
| Abstract: | The relationship between immigration and crime is one of the most salient issues in public discourse. Despite widespread public concern, most studies find no evidence that immigration increases crime rates in host countries. This article reviews recent empirical evidence on the relationship between immigration and crime. Rather than offering an exhaustive survey, it focuses on recent and seminal contributions, highlighting emerging trends and research frontiers. In particular, the article discusses how immigration policies can mediate the relationship between immigration and crime. It also discusses research on crimes against immigrants, a topic that has attracted increasing scholarly interest but remains largely neglected in public discourse. Finally, given the substantial gap between public perception and the empirical evidence, the article reviews research on immigration and crime perception. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:92 |
| By: | Vicary, Ashley |
| Abstract: | Whether climate stress displaces people or traps them in place is unresolved. The common intuition is displacement: crops fail, heat becomes unliveable and people leave. Other work predicts the opposite for poor countries, where migration abroad is expensive and the shock that sharpens the wish to leave can destroy the means to go. Estimates disagree, partly because realized temperature mixes warming that households anticipated with warming they did not. I isolate the unanticipated part with temperature forecast errors, the warmth or cold a forecast missed, and estimate their effect on monthly international migration from countries holding most of the world’s population. Here I show that unexpected warmth does not detectably move migration on average, but that in low-income countries an unexpectedly hot month lowers departures over the following year. No richer income group shows a detectable response. The migration suppression is strongest where incomes depend on agriculture, also appears outside the growing season and leaves in-migration flat, consistent with heat removing the means to move. For the poorest countries, unexpected heat may hold people back rather than push them abroad. Projections and policies built around displacement may overstate departures from these countries and overlook those who cannot afford to leave. |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f3wvd_v1 |
| By: | Liu, Haobing |
| Abstract: | Immigrants who speak limited English earn less than those who speak it well. On the protective view of residential concentration, that differential should be smaller where immigrants are concentrated, because concentration supplies employers and customers who do not require English. On the isolation view it should be larger. This study tests both views in metropolitan Philadelphia, a former gateway whose immigrant population has grown again, with American Community Survey microdata for 2012 to 2024 and a two-level model of 7, 355 foreign-born workers in 48 Public Use Microdata Areas. Hourly wages are about 8 percent lower per standard deviation of area immigrant density for foreign-born workers who speak English well and about 3 percent lower, an estimate not distinguishable from zero, for those who speak it poorly. Native-born workers in the same areas show a gradient of 2 percent, so most of the difference is specific to immigrants. The interaction between density and limited English is 0.049 (standard error 0.029) and disappears once occupation is held constant. The limited-English differential is 21 percent overall and 9 percent within an occupation, so most of it is associated with the occupations limited-English workers hold. An exploratory measure of the density of the worker’s own home language gives a positive interaction of 0.046 (0.022), driven by lower wages for proficient workers rather than higher wages for limited-English workers, and the same specification in the New York metropolitan area gives 0.045 (0.009). Higher earners move from the city to the suburbs. |
| Date: | 2026–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t53pn_v1 |
| By: | Hajare El Hadri (Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE UR3190, F-25000 Besançon, France); Réda Marakbi (Université Artois, ISEG School of management, LEM UMR9221, F-62000 Arras, France) |
| Abstract: | This article develops and empirically tests a theory of migration under repression. It argues that migration aspirations are shaped by perceived freedom repression and that such perceptions can make exit more attractive when voice appears blocked, risky, or ineffective. The theoretical framework yields four hypotheses, which we test using Arab Barometer data from 2021– 2024 covering about 34, 000 respondents in twelve Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Empirically, we construct a Freedom Repression Index and examine how perceived repression shapes migration aspirations across different freedom dimensions and migration routes. Four findings stand out. First, perceived repression significantly increases migration aspirations, with substantive effects comparable to standard economic push factors. Second, the association is strongest for personal liberties, especially freedom of expression and freedom of religion, whereas restrictions on collective political rights such as protest are less strongly associated with migration aspirations. Third, repression shifts intentions toward irregular rather than regular migration routes. Fourth, this relationship is context-dependent: it is strongest in stable yet restrictive settings and weakens in conflict-affected contexts where insecurity dominates. By disaggregating freedom dimensions and distinguishing regular from irregular intentions, the article connects exit-voice theory to micro-level evidence and clarifies when, which, and how perceived repression shapes migration aspirations in the MENA region. |
| Keywords: | freedom; repression; migration aspirations; irregular migration; MENA. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2026-11 |
| By: | Gabelle, Christopher C.; Gallego-Ayala, Jordi Jose; Beazley, Rodolfo Ignacio; Macleod, Ewen; Aweko, Scovia |
| Abstract: | Social protection systems for internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and host communities in fragile and conflict affected settings are critical to sustainable responses to protracted and cyclical displacement. Focusing on the Great Lakes Region (GLR), Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda, this report assesses the capacity of national social protection systems to address the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of displacement affected populations beyond short term humanitarian assistance. Using an adapted adaptive social protection framework, the analysis examines five system dimensions: (a) policies and legal rights, (b) institutional arrangements, (c) programs and delivery systems, (d) data and information systems, and (e) financing. Findings show that despite regional and international commitments, most notably the Kampala Convention, social protection systems remain weakly equipped to respond to large scale internal displacement and return, with assistance largely delivered through humanitarian channels, particularly in conflict affected areas. The report concludes that strengthening government led social protection systems to systematically include IDPs, returnees, and vulnerable host communities on the basis of need is critical to enhancing resilience, supporting reintegration, and reducing long term dependence on humanitarian assistance in the GLR. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:209056 |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers; Henry Woo |
| Abstract: | Immigrant founders of US venture-backed startups exit successfully more often than native founders. Does this hold worldwide? Using career histories for 913, 226 founder-firm pairs in 213 countries (1990–2026), we compare founders who build abroad (expats) or return home after foreign experience (returnees) with comparable local founders in the same country. Both expats and returnees raise early funding more often globally. Expats' success premium, however, concentrates in the US (18 percent) and UK (26 percent), especially among those entering the US through graduate school, work, or direct founding. Returnees rarely show such a premium. Capital follows mobile founders across borders, but success follows them selectively. |
| JEL: | F22 G24 J24 J61 L26 J6 J60 J69 O57 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35943 |
| By: | Charles, Lorraine; Xia, Shuting; Smith, Emma; Danon, Alice; Alhorr, Layane |
| Abstract: | Remote digital work is increasingly positioned as a pathway to economic inclusion for forcibly displaced people, offering income opportunities independent of physical location or host-country labor market access. Yet the conditions under which this potential can be realized remain poorly understood. This study evaluates Opportunities Without Borders, a structured intervention combining soft skills training, freelance skills development, and me ntorship implemented by Na'amal across displacement-affected communities in East Africa, reaching 2, 000 refugees and host community members through a randomized controlled trial in 2024–2025. Drawing on quantitative, administrative, and longitudinal qualitative data, the study asks whether supply-side readiness constitutes the primary constraint to online labor market participation among displaced individuals. The intervention produced measurable gains in platform literacy and freelancing orientation but no statistically significant effects on job applications, hours worked, or earnings. A persistent 'conversion gap' emerges between improved capability and actual employment, driven by structural barriers at market entry: payment system access, identity verification, application costs, and the absence of reputation signals required to secure initial contracts. Longitudinal follow-up reveals divergent participant trajectories determined not by motivation or skill, but by differential access to connectivity, financial tools, and sustained support. The findings demonstrate that remote work functions as an ecosystem: supply-side training alone cannot produce employment outcomes when structural barriers remain unaddressed. Effective programming requires a shift from individual preparation toward system-level interventions that reduce transaction costs, create first-job pathways, and sustain support through the full journey from learning to earning. |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:211094 |
| By: | Fatima, Freeha; Ozen, Efsan Nas; Raju, Dhushyanth |
| Abstract: | Cash assistance to refugees is often viewed with concern because regular transfers may be assumed to discourage work. Evidence from Türkiye’s Emergency Social Safety Net, one of the world’s largest humanitarian cash transfer programs, provides little support for this concern. Comparing similar Syrian refugee households near the program’s rule-based eligibility threshold, the study finds no large or statistically detectable reduction in employment among either women or men. The findings suggest that, in a labor market where refugee work is often informal, unstable, and constrained, cash assistance helps households manage economic insecurity without producing meaningful employment disincentives. Policies to strengthen refugee economic participation should therefore focus on easing barriers to job access, formal employment, and stable livelihoods, rather than assuming that reducing income support will increase work. |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:211087 |
| By: | Luzega, Anja |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term association between exposure to descendants of guest workers in school and native German students' friendships in adulthood. Beginning in 1955, millions of guest workers migrated to West Germany, resulting in significant demographic shifts. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this study focuses on Germans who completed secondary school between 1975 and 1990. The results suggest that individuals experiencing inter-ethnic contact in school are more likely to have foreign friends in adulthood, with this association being strongest for individuals who grew up in rural areas. Possible channels are a change in attitudes, likely due to a reduction in prejudice, and sorting into more urban regions with more opportunities for intergroup contact in adulthood. The results indicate that exposure to diversity in school may be associated with lasting differences in attitudes and behavior. |
| Keywords: | immigration, attitudes, school diversity, friendships |
| JEL: | I20 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:344213 |
| By: | Nxumalo, Mpumelelo; Raju, Dhushyanth |
| Abstract: | Türkiye’s formal employment agenda for Syrian refugees increasingly depends on whether firms can translate legal access into registered jobs. A large-scale 2026 survey of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises finds a relatively small employer base but generally favorable experience among firms that have hired Syrian refugees. The main firm-side frictions are limited knowledge of formal employment requirements, procedural complexity, and weak links between recruitment and formal services. Firms with prior hiring experience are far more open to additional support than never-employers. Policy should simplify formal hiring pathways, strengthen matching, differentiate support by hiring history, and target firms and locations with credible labor demand. |
| Date: | 2026–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:216013 |
| By: | Caflisch, Andrea Carlomaria; Masterson, Daniel (University of California, Santa Barbara); O'Connell, Stephen Daniel; Patel, Ettan; Omomo, Julia Smith |
| Abstract: | Political science research often studies difficult-to-locate populations: internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, migrants, and others who move during war, disaster, or crisis. We compare machine-learning (ML)-generated building footprints against high-resolution satellite imagery for constructing sampling frames. In displacement- affected communities in Iraq, 15.5% of ML points were invalid or duplicated, and manual additions constituted 19% of the final hybrid frame. Manual additions reached 10.2 percentage points more IDPs in rural communities and 10.1 more returnees in urban areas. We attribute differences to two mechanisms: temporary and informal shelters are harder for ML algorithms to detect, while post-bombardment reconstruction can create structures absent from the imagery underlying ML frames. ML-only frames produce systematic coverage error, and targeted satellite validation can reduce it. |
| Date: | 2026–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zy7ua_v1 |