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on Economics of Human Migration |
By: | Balgova, Maria (Bank of England); Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn) |
Abstract: | This paper examines the differential impact of job displacement on migrants and natives. Using administrative data for Germany from 1997-2016, we identify mass layoffs and estimate the trajectory of earnings and employment of observationally similar migrants and natives displaced from the same establishment. Despite similar pre-layoff careers, migrants lose an additional 9% of their earnings in the first 5 years after displacement. This gap arises from both lower re-employment probabilities and post-layoff wages and is not driven by selective return migration. Key mechanisms include sorting into lower-quality firms and depending on lower-quality coworker networks during job search. |
Keywords: | immigration, job displacement, job search |
JEL: | J62 J63 J64 |
Date: | 2024–12 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17496 |
By: | , Rojas Daniel; Trejo, Alfredo III; Peters, Margaret E.; Zhou, Yang-Yang (University of British Columbia) |
Abstract: | When do host governments protect migrants and expand their rights? On February 8, 2021, Colombian President Iván Duque announced a 10-year temporary protected status for over 1.7 million Venezuelan migrants, a policy shift that contrasts with more restrictive migration responses globally. This paper examines the underlying motivations for Colombia's unexpected generosity, identifying three key factors: the pragmatic response to challenges in border control, the economic and legibility benefits of migrant regularization, and the pursuit of international reputation gains. Drawing on interviews with 30 Colombian policymakers, politicians, diplomats, bureaucrats, and NGO leaders, this study offers new insights into the drivers of inclusive migration policies in the Global South. |
Date: | 2024–12–16 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:f4j63 |
By: | Karine Moukaddem (Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-Marseille University); Marion Dovis (Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-Marseille University); Josephine Kass-Hanna (IESEG School of Management); Léa Bou Khater (AUB); Eva Raiber (Aix-Marseille School of Economics) |
Abstract: | Migration aspirations, the hope and ambition to leave the origin country, are recognized as the key initial step that may lead to actual migration. Drawing on data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Lebanon among 1, 500 women aged 18-35, this study investigates the role of social networks and life aspirations (education, career, marriage and fertility) in shaping migration aspirations, in a context of severe economic crisis and massive emigration wave. Based on a stylized model that integrates aspirations into a standard utility maximization problem, we postulate that individuals aspire to migrate if their life aspirations cannot be locally fulfilled. Furthermore, we focus on local networks to examine their influence on women’s migration aspirations. Our analysis reveals a peer effect, where a higher share of women’s network planning migration increases their migration aspirations. Additionally, unlikely career and education aspirations, but not family aspirations, are associated with a stronger desire to emigrate. These findings highlight the need for a nuanced approach to understanding the interplay between social networks, aspirations, and migration decisions. They offer valuable insights for researchers and policymakers aiming to address the drivers of women’s emigration in Lebanon and other crisis contexts. |
Date: | 2024–08–20 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1715 |
By: | Galor, Oded (Brown University); Klemp, Marc (University of Copenhagen); Wainstock, Daniel Crisóstomo (Brown University) |
Abstract: | This study reveals the pivotal impact of the prehistoric out-of-Africa migration on global variation in the degree of cultural diversity within ethnic and national populations. Drawing on novel diversity measures—encompassing folkloric and musical traditions among indigenous ethnic groups, as well as norms, values, and attitudes in modern societies—an intriguing pattern emerges: societies whose ancestors migrated farther from humanity's cradle in Africa exhibit lower cultural diversity. These striking findings underscore: (i) the profound role of cultural dynamics in shaping the enduring effects of the out-of-Africa migration on social cohesion, innovativeness, and living standards; (ii) the origins of persistent global variations in cultural expressions within an increasingly interconnected world; and (iii) the roots of variations in societal adaptability to evolving economic and technological landscapes. |
Keywords: | diversity, culture, out-of-africa, folkloric diversity, musical diversity, social norms |
JEL: | O10 Z10 |
Date: | 2024–11 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17481 |
By: | Aguiar, Angel; Terrie Walmsley |
Abstract: | GMig2, the GTAP migration extension, is a globally consistent database of bilateral population, labor by skill, wages, and remittances that can be used for economic modeling of international migration issues. Although new databases have significantly improved access to migration data, information on the skills of migrant labor is incomplete and bilateral remittance data are unavailable. This paper examines the underlying data available and then outlines the assumptions and techniques used to construct bilateral data on migrant labor by skills, remittances, and wages. |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:resmem:7396 |
By: | Celina Proffen; Franziska Riepl |
Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of introducing birthright citizenship in Germany on the educational trajectories of second-generation immigrants. Our identification strategy exploits a legal change in 2000 that granted children of foreigners with longtime residency automatic citizenship at birth. Using high-quality census data, we show that the reform contributes to closing pre-existing educational gaps in secondary school track choice and completion. These findings also hold when relying exclusively on within-household variation across siblings. We provide evidence for the underlying mechanisms, highlighting the roles of higher expected returns to education and of an increased sense of belonging to Germany. |
Keywords: | birthright citizenship, education, human capital, integration, immigration |
JEL: | J15 J24 K37 O15 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11483 |
By: | Catherine Kariuki; Nicky Nzioki |
Abstract: | According to the National Land Policy, Kenya hosts many refugees. These are people fleeing from civic strife from their war or economically challenged countries. These refugees will often be there for the better part of their lives. The refugees occupy public land and ASAL regions. The location of these refugee camps is often in fragile ecosystems. Their activities over the years have led to systematic ecological degradation. Despite a National land Policy created in 2009, the country has been unable to improve the status of refugee camps. The research method was based on a theoretical framework which includes a literature review on the impact of refugee presence on the host country. Primary data was collected from one refugee camp and international and local agencies working in these areas. Data analysis was done using available statistical methods. Refugee camps, which initially were supposed to serve fleeing people for a short period, have now turned into permanent settlements. However, the facilities offered remain temporary; the land is affected permanently and will take several years to recover from degradation. The study will rely on desk research and very little case study. This is because most of the refugee camps are located in the more difficult-to-reach parts of the country. The paper contributes to the literature review and offers ways to manage refugee camps to protect a fragile ecosystem |
Keywords: | Camps; fragile ecosystem; housing; refugees; settlements. |
JEL: | R3 |
Date: | 2024–01–01 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afr:wpaper:afres2024-001 |
By: | Łukasz Postek (Narodowy Bank Polski; University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Małgorzata Walerych (Narodowy Bank Polski; Institute of Economics) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of immigration shocks in shaping unemployment and wage dynamics in Poland – a country that experienced a significant influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. To achieve this, we construct novel proxies for the size of immigration to Poland and use them to estimate structural BVAR models. Our results suggest that the impact of the 2022 refugee wave on the Polish economy differs from previous immigration inflows, primarily influencing aggregate demand and, to a lesser extent, boosting labour supply. More specifically, in recent years, immigration shocks have slightly reduced the unemployment rate and, to a greater extent, lowered the annual growth rate of real wages. At the same time, they contributed to higher growth in nominal wages, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants, which created significant consumption demand, was at its highest. |
Keywords: | immigration, Bayesian VAR, labour market |
JEL: | C11 C32 E32 J61 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:373 |
By: | Vaalavuo, Maria; Holster, Tuukka; Kuusinen, Heidi; Skogberg, Natalia |
Abstract: | Existing research has shown that immigrants’ health care use and costs are lower compared to native population. The aim of this study is to analyse 1) how average health care costs differ between newly arrived immigrants and natives in Finland, 2) whether the costs of immigrants converge to the level of natives over time, and 3) how other factors of integration are associated with convergence in health care use. We use individual-level register data on total working-age (18-64) population living in Finland between 2008 and 2017 combined with their health care use and costs in public specialised health care sector from the national Care Register for Health Care. Our analysis sample includes all working-age immigrants who arrived in Finland between 2008-2010 and divided in eight groups by region of origin. We use a 10 per cent random sample of native-born Finns as a comparison group. Information on earlier arrived immigrants is used in additional analyses. We follow the study population’s (n=296, 956) health care costs from 2011 to 2017. To illustrate trajectories in health care costs, we employ growth curve models. Our results show that immigrants have lower health care costs compared to natives and they do not converge to the native level over a 7-year observation period. This finding holds also among immigrants who have more local social, cultural, and economic capital. Notably, the costs differ remarkably between sectors of health care, different immigrant groups, and by other factors. However, the determinants of health care costs appear to function relatively similarly among natives and immigrants. Information on these differences is crucial for assessing equity in the distribution of health care. Our results can also be used to improve the accuracy of regional predictions of models that forecast health expenditures at the regional level in Finland. In addition to better health among immigrants, lower health care use and costs among immigrants may indicate, for example, different approaches to health care use or unmet needs due to barriers to accessing health care services. It seems that the ‘healthy immigrant effect’ is an oversimplification of the reality. To make informed policy decisions, future research is needed to uncover the factors behind the lower health care use among immigrants and whether this affects health outcomes and health inequality. |
Date: | 2024–12–17 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5rxvy |
By: | Federico Revelli; Tsung-Sheng Tsai |
Abstract: | We study the impact of climate change on migration by developing a real options model that rigorously formalizes the trade-off between migrating early and procrastinating to learn more about the government’s implementation of an adaptation policy that can effectively moderate the consequences of climate change. The model delivers an unambiguous guide to estimation of the impact of climate change on the occurrence of natural disasters and of the latter on migration decisions within a structural empirical model where the distinct mediation roles of the option value of waiting components (migration cost, home income, quality of government) are specified in a principled way. Evidence from panel data on international bilateral migration flows supports the main predictions of the theory and points to the key mediating role of government. |
Keywords: | option value of waiting, climate change adaptation, international migration |
JEL: | C33 H31 O15 Q54 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11493 |
By: | Smeets, Chayenne; Cebotari, Victor |
Abstract: | This study uses longitudinal data to examine the educational performance—specifically self-reported grades in Science, English, and Mathematics—of male and female students in Ghana whose parents have either moved within the country or abroad. The study analyzes responses from 741 secondary school students over the years 2013, 2014, and 2015. Findings indicate that boys with at least one parent living internationally often attain grades that are similar to or better than those of their counterparts from non-migrant families. On the other hand, girls from migrant families typically do not exhibit significant differences in grades compared to girls from non-migrant backgrounds. A key risk factor highlighted in the study is the detrimental effect of parental divorce or separation on the academic outcomes of children from migrant families. |
Date: | 2024–12–14 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b6sz9 |
By: | Zwysen, Wouter; Demireva, Neli |
Abstract: | The labour market integration of migrants is a heavily politicised topic in Europe. Using detailed and recently updated data on migrant’s motivations this paper places a much needed emphasis upon the heterogeneity of migrant groups and the pathways to their labour market integration. We focus on host country human capital and labour market outcomes from three ad-hoc modules of the EU Labour Force Survey to analyse (1) who takes up host country human capital; and (2) determine what the role of host country human capital acquisitions are in the labour market integration of heterogenous migrant groups and across time. Our results indicate that the take-up of host country human capital differs strongly between countries, with some of these differences reflecting the impact of specific policies, as well as variation in the economic context upon arrival. Importantly, we find that whereas non-economic migrants are at a substantial disadvantage compared to the majority, non-economic migrants benefit relatively much more from host-country human capital, particularly better language skills, host country qualifications and having equivalised their degrees. Our analysis points to the need to consider the trajectories of labour market integration of different migrant groups separately as there is great variation with years of residence and the take up of host country human capital. |
Date: | 2025–01–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2025-01 |
By: | Bandiera, Antonella (ITAM); , Rojas Daniel |
Abstract: | This paper examines the effectiveness of media literacy interventions in combating misinformation among in-transit migrants in Mexico and Colombia. We conducted experiments to study whether an established strategy for fighting misinformation works for this understudied yet particularly vulnerable population. We evaluate the effect of digital media literacy tips on migrants' ability to identify false information and their intentions to share migration-related content. We find that these interventions can effectively decrease migrants' intentions to share misleading migration-related information, with a significantly larger reduction observed for false content than accurate information. We also find that prompting participants to think about accuracy can unintentionally obscure sharing intent by acting as a nudge. Additionally, the interventions decreased trust in social media as an information source while maintaining trust in official sources. The findings suggest that incorporating digital literacy tips into official websites could be a cost-effective strategy to reduce misinformation circulation among migrant populations. |
Date: | 2024–12–13 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:md42a |
By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Max Deter; Maria Greve; Michael Wyrwich |
Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on Germanpatents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based on surname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. |
Keywords: | Patents, Migration, Germany, Iron Curtain, Innovation |
JEL: | H10 N44 P20 D31 |
Date: | 2025–01–14 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0059 |
By: | Bächli, Mirjam (University of Lausanne); Glitz, Albrecht (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
Abstract: | Immigration may affect income inequality not only by changing factor prices but also by inducing policy makers to adjust the prevailing income tax system. We assess the relative importance of these economic and political channels using administrative data from Switzerland where local authorities have a high degree of tax autonomy. We show that immigrant inflows not only raise gross earnings inequality but also reduce the progressivity of local income taxes, further increasing after-tax inequality. Our estimates suggest that around 10 percent of the impact of immigration on the net interquartile and interdecile earnings gaps can be attributed to the political channel. |
Keywords: | immigration, income taxes, earnings inequality |
JEL: | H23 H24 H71 J31 J61 |
Date: | 2024–12 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17523 |
By: | Gökçe, Merve Betül |
Abstract: | Between 2020 and 2023, Turkey experienced a significant rise in housing prices, with inflation-adjusted rents more than doubled in some regions, marking it a standout case of global house price inflation. This study exploits the regional and temporal variation in rental prices as a natural experiment. It employs a difference-in-differences framework to explore the impact on students’ educational mobility within a developing country, where annually, one million high school graduates face the critical decision to stay local or relocate to another province for university education. Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering all higher education programs in Turkey, combined with rental price indices for all 81 provinces, the analysis reveals that rising rental prices significantly reduce inter-provincial student mobility. A 100 TL increase in rental prices (adjusted to 2023 levels) reduces the openness rate (out-of-province enrollment) of public university programs by 3.5 percentage points (a 4.4% relative decline). The negative effect is concentrated in programs with lower entry scores, where the openness rate declines by 18%, while high-entry-score programs remain unaffected. This heterogeneity across program competitiveness suggests that rising accommodation expenses disproportionately restrict the geographical mobility of students with lower academic performance. The analysis of private university programs further supports this conclusion, showing that rental price increases significantly reduce mobility in tuition-based programs while leaving full-scholarship programs, typically attended by high-scoring students, unaffected. |
Keywords: | Student mobility; educational migration; rental price; housing shock; accommodation cost. |
JEL: | I23 J61 R31 |
Date: | 2024–11–30 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122834 |
By: | Mountford, Andrew; Wadswoirth, Jonathan |
Abstract: | Should we think of immigration as an exogenous shock to labor supply in the receiving economy? The time series of the share of migrant labor is `Granger caused' by that of total hours worked and the average real wage in the UK economy. This suggests that immigration is, in part, determined by demand and supply effects in the labor market. In this paper we model, for the first time, immigration, wages and hours worked, as responding to demand, supply and immigration shocks at the aggregate and sectoral levels. The labor market is therefore modelled as being subject to multiple shocks at any one time, with individual shocks reinforcing and offsetting each other. We use a vector autoregression (VAR) on a time series of UK labor market variables from 2001-2019 for 35 different sectors. We find, across different identification techniques taken from the macroeconomics literature, that a fundamental component of the estimated time series process has a negative association between immigration and native wages. This shock, which can be interpreted as an `immigration shock', plays a significant role in the determination of wage growth, although its influence varies across sectors and identification methods. Indeed, immigration itself is also determined, in part, by aggregate demand and supply shocks. |
Keywords: | Immigration, Demand, Supply, VAR, Sectoral Heterogeneity |
JEL: | E0 F2 F6 J2 |
Date: | 2024–11 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122836 |
By: | Daniel L. Dench; Kelly Lifchez; Jason M. Lindo; Jancy Ling Liu |
Abstract: | In this study, we investigate whether reproductive rights affect migration. We do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences design that leverages variation from the 2022 Dobbs decision, which allowed states to ban abortion, and population flows based on change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service. The results indicate that abortion bans cause significant increases in net migration outflows, with effect sizes growing throughout the year after the decision. The most recent data point indicates that total abortion bans come at the cost of more than 36, 000 residents per quarter. The effects are more prominent for single-person households than for family households, which may reflect larger effects on younger adults. We also find suggestive evidence of impacts for states that were hostile towards abortion in ways other than having total bans. |
JEL: | H0 I0 J0 K0 R0 |
Date: | 2025–01 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33328 |
By: | Budlong, Deodavid; Moreno, Frede |
Abstract: | This study assesses the sustainability of reintegration programs for repatriated Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in Zamboanga City, focusing on the effectiveness of current initiatives and identifying key areas for improvement. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research combines quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews to evaluate program impact, stakeholder engagement, and program sustainability. Findings reveal that while existing programs offer crucial support, challenges such as bureaucratic inefficiencies, fragmented service delivery, and inadequate psychosocial support hinder their effectiveness. The study highlights the need for improved coordination among government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and local stakeholders, as well as more tailored interventions addressing both economic and emotional needs. Recommendations include enhancing policy coherence, implementing continuous evaluation mechanisms, and fostering community engagement. Theoretical implications suggest a need for integrated policy frameworks and adaptive governance approaches. Practically, the study advocates for a more holistic, responsive approach to public administration, emphasizing collaboration and adaptability to better support repatriated OFWs. These insights contribute to the broader understanding of migration and reintegration in public administration, offering actionable strategies for improving program sustainability and effectiveness. |
Keywords: | reintegration programs, Overseas Filipino Workers, sustainability, public administration, policy coordination, adaptive governance |
JEL: | D60 F6 F66 I3 I31 I38 J5 J50 J6 J61 J64 J68 |
Date: | 2024–11–26 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122780 |
By: | Dagher, Leila; Farajalla, Nadim; Jabbour, Hiba; Zreik, Mohamad |
Abstract: | Decades of political tension and conflict have led to mass displacement in the Levant, placing immense pressure on the region’s limited resources. Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, intensifying vulnerabilities through more frequent extreme events that reduce water availability and make agricultural production less predictable. The resulting competition for dwindling resources fuels tensions, exacerbating the region’s security challenges. As climate impacts worsen, conflicts over resources are expected to escalate, perpetuating a cycle of displacement that threatens regional and global stability. Addressing governance failures and enhancing climate resilience through coordinated efforts is crucial to reducing the Levant’s vulnerability and mitigating prolonged crises. |
Keywords: | Levant; climate change; refugees; conflict; displacement |
JEL: | Q01 Q56 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122861 |
By: | Angela C. Lyons (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Josephine Kass-Hanna (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille); Deepika Pingali (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Aiman Soliman (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); David Zhu (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Yifang Zhang (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Alejandro Montoya Castano (Colombian Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN), Bogotá) |
Abstract: | This study integrates geospatial analysis with machine learning to understand the interplay and spatial dependencies among various indicators of food insecurity. Combining household survey data and novel geospatial data on Syrian refugees in Lebanon, we explore why certain food security measures are effective in specific contexts while others are not. Our findings indicate that geolocational indicators significantly influence food insecurity, often overshadowing traditional factors like household socio-demographics and living conditions. This suggests a shift in focus from labor-intensive socioeconomic surveys to readily accessible geospatial data. The study also highlights the variability of food insecurity across different locations and subpopulations, challenging the effectiveness of individual measures like FCS, HDDS, and rCSI in capturing localized needs. By disaggregating the dimensions of food insecurity and understanding their distribution, humanitarian and development organizations can better tailor strategies, directing resources to areas where refugees face the most severe food challenges. From a policy perspective, our insights call for a refined approach that improves the predictive power of food insecurity models, aiding organizations in efficiently targeting interventions. |
Date: | 2024–09–20 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1729 |
By: | - |
Abstract: | The Caribbean is undergoing a demographic transition with declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. From 2000 to 2020, the population grew from 39 million to 44 million, with an annual growth rate of 0.64%, lower than the Latin American and Caribbean average of 1.29%. Life expectancy rose from 67.4 to 70.8 years for males and 72.6 to 76.2 years for females, and under-5 mortality decreased from 47 to 35 per 10, 000 births. The ageing population, driven by these dynamics and the substantial emigration of the working-age population, saw the median age rise from 24 to 31 years and is projected to reach 33 years by 2050, with those over 50 comprising a quarter of the population (UN-DESA, 2022). This demographic transition towards an ageing population mirrors more of what is expected of advanced economies rather than the developing countries of the Caribbean. An ageing population produces many ramifications for economic development as it negatively affects labour productivity and strains pension systems. Managing the demographic transition necessitates policies that help promote the economic growth needed to sustain pension, healthcare, and elderly care systems. Policies harnessing the benefits of international migration constitute a critical pillar of the population policies available to Caribbean governments to manage the demographic transition and assure sustainable development. |
Date: | 2024–09–16 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:80687 |
By: | Wett Valentin |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of a targeted apprenticeship policy on the labor market integration of Afghan asylum seekers in Austria, using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design. The policy allows asylum seekers to engage in apprenticeships in understaffed professions during their asylum process. The analysis uncovers substantial effects, with participants being employed for an additional 935 days and earning €67, 759 more over five years compared to non-participants. Additionally, the program significantly reduces welfare dependency, lowering welfare receipt in general by 26 months and reliance on Basic Subsistence Support by 27.5 months. There is no effect on the probability of remaining insured in Austria. |
JEL: | F22 J31 |
Date: | 2024–11 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4772 |