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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Lafleur, Jean-Michel; Marfouk, Abdeslam |
| Abstract: | Migration has become a highly contentious issue across many European countries, where initiatives to regularize the status of undocumented migrants face substantial political opposition. While public attitudes toward immigration have been extensively studied, comparatively little attention has been paid to public opinion on large-scale regularization programs (i.e., the granting of legal status) and the role of framing in shaping support for such policies. To address this gap, we conducted an experimental study to examine how different framing strategies influence public support for regularization policies in Belgium. Our results show that emotionally engaging messages and narrative presentations of factual information increase support for the regularization of undocumented migrants, especially those who are employed. From a public policy perspective, these findings suggest that framing can help policymakers build public support for regularization programs. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants, Public Opinion, Public Policy, Survey Experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1758 |
| By: | Jaerim Choi (Yonsei University); Hyoungchul Kim (University of Pennsylvania); Seung Hoon Lee (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | Using Korean administrative data spanning nearly two decades and covering the universe of bilateral migration flows across local labor markets, we examine how the China trade shock shapes internal migration. While prior studies rely on net population changes to measure labor adjustment, we exploit bilateral migration flows that separately capture in- and out-migration. We find that trade exposure primarily increases out-migration from adversely affected regions, with limited effects on in-migration, revealing asymmetric spatial adjustment. Decomposing the shock, export expansion reduces out-migration, whereas import competition increases it. Migration responses are strongest among prime working-age individuals and substantially weaker among younger and older cohorts. Single-person households are more responsive than multiperson households. Overall, bilateral data reveal substantial migration responses that conventional net population measures fail to detect, offering new insight into the "missing migration puzzle." |
| Keywords: | China trade shock, Labor adjustment, Internal migration, Korea |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2026rwp-287 |
| By: | Budnik, Katarzyna |
| Abstract: | Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the “old” EU Member States (EU15) and the “new” Member States (NMS12). The model introduces fully endogenous temporary migration and combines it with search-and-matching frictions in labour markets. Workers migrate temporarily in response to differences in labour market conditions and wages, allowing productivity shocks to affect local labour supply. The results show that productivity shocks in the host economy attract temporary migrants and increase labour supply. This migration response amplifies output fluctuations while leaving inflation dynamics largely unaffected. Migration also smooths wage responses but increases the volatility of employment. At the same time, temporary migration dampens the macroeconomic effects of productivity shocks in the sending economy by redistributing labour across regions. These findings highlight the role of labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism within an integrated economic area and suggest that cross-border migration can significantly shape business cycle dynamics in Europe. JEL Classification: E20, E32, F16, F22, F41 |
| Keywords: | business cycle, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, EU enlargement, integration, labour market, labour migration |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263226 |
| By: | Mohamad Alhussein Saoud (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg) |
| Abstract: | During New Year’s Eve 2015/2016, the German city of Cologne witnessed mass sexual assaults and thefts by perpetrators described as having an Arab-African appearance. This paper studies whether the event in Cologne led to a backlash in crimes against refugees in Germany. Difference-in-differences regressions reveal a significant jump in anti-refugee crimes immediately after the event. This rise is driven by assaults and miscellaneous crimes and is more pronounced in North Rhine-Westphalia (where Cologne is located), in wealthier counties, in counties with a higher share of refugees, and in the counties that had a refugee reception center. The immediate rise in anti-refugee crimes is also higher in counties where a higher share of German suspects has been involved in crimes against foreign victims. Regarding longer-term repercussions, I find evidence for an anniversary effect a year later, i.e., a rise in anti-refugee crimes after the next New Year’s Eve. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, hate crimes, immigration, anniversary effect |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mag:wpaper:25001 |
| By: | Robert Fairlie; Robert W. Fairlie |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a descriptive analysis of both the early impacts of COVID on business activity among immigrants and the economic recovery over the next few years. The findings indicate that immigrant business owners were disproportionately affected by COVID in the first month of the pandemic when mandated shutdowns through social distancing restrictions were the most severe. Immigrant business activity recovered somewhat inconsistently through the end of 2020 but started a longer-term upward trend in both absolute terms and relative terms over the next few years. By the end of 2024, the number of active immigrant business owners increased to 3.9 million compared with 3.0 million just prior to the start of the pandemic. Growth in the Construction, Transportation, Professional and Business Services, and Financial Activities industry groups fueled total growth in immigrant business activity during the recovery period. The percentage of the labor force owning an active business is 3.5 percentage points higher than U.S. born active business ownership rates, which is larger than the 1.8 percentage point gap before the pandemic started. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, self-employment, business ownership, COVID, pandemic, recovery, immigrant, immigration, inequality |
| JEL: | L26 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12655 |
| By: | Christian Koch; Jean-Robert Tyran |
| Abstract: | Radical Right (RR) political parties have become increasingly radicalized on immigration across many developed countries. We study whether exposure to slanted (i.e., one-sided) news shifts policy views of RR voters on immigration in Austria. In an online experiment, participants received slanted news about the effects of immigration on the welfare state. We find that anti-immigration news further radicalizes RR voters by reinforcing extreme policy views, while slanted pro-immigration news has no de-radicalizing effect. Surprisingly, balanced news — presenting both sides — reduces radicalization. We show that balanced news coverage increases trust, thereby increasing RR voters’ receptiveness to opposing viewpoints. |
| Keywords: | radical right voters, fiscal impact of immigration, anti-immigration views, trust in news media, online experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D72 F22 H30 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12659 |
| By: | Elizabeth Fussell; Kathryn McConnell; Selen Ozdogan; Katherine Curtis; Jack DeWaard; Sara Ronnkvist |
| Abstract: | Nationally representative data sets that support research on internal migration are vital for understanding trends and dynamics driving population redistribution, but they also have limitations. In short, surveys used to estimate migration rates overall and by demographic group are representative of the U.S. population, but do not allow for estimation of migration rates by county in a single year. County-level migration probabilities can be estimated by county for each year using administrative records but are not representative of the US population or decomposable by demographic characteristics. In this technical note, we describe the construction of a county-level migration flow data set from administrative records available in the Census Bureau that can be decomposed into demographic groups by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and nativity. We refer to this as the Master Address File - Migration Flows (MAF-MIF) data set. The MAF-MIF can be used to address a range of research questions about internal migration patterns focusing on the origin and destination counties of specific demographic groups of movers. To assess the validity and reliability of the MAF-MIF, we investigate whether the inter-county migration probabilities estimated from the MAF-MIF match comparable migration probabilities estimated from the public use Current Population Survey (CPS). Several anomalies are identified and treated by weighting the data using national CPS migration probabilities. We then compare the weighted MAF-MIF inter-county migration probabilities stratified by demographic characteristics to the same statistics estimated from the CPS. We conclude that the MAF-MIF is a valuable new source of internal migration data, especially for studies that require finer-scale spatial and temporal units, although the data set is not without limitations. The MAF-MIF provides benefits to the U.S. Census Bureau by evaluating the quality of the Master Address File Auxiliary Reference File (MARF) as a measure of residential mobility and producing a new data set for research on internal migration (Criteria 2). We also prepared novel estimates of annual county-level residential mobility disaggregated by age group, sex, and race/ethnicity (Criteria 11). |
| Keywords: | MAFX, MAF-ARF, Numident, Best Race |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-12 |
| By: | Áron Kiss; Joana Maldonado; Alessandro Turrini; Kristine Van Herck |
| Abstract: | While the share of people born in an EU Member State and living in another continued to increase modestly throughout the last decade (from about 4% in 2014 to about 4.4% in the EU’s working age population in 2024), the share of EU working age population born outside the EU increased more dynamically, from about 8% in 2014 to more than 12% in 2024. This increase became even more dynamic since 2022, a development that is only partly explained by the arrival of people fleeing Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Recent net migration flows broadly confirm established geographical patterns, with the largest flows moving from East to West and being directed to relatively large EU Member States with stronger economic outcomes and lower unemployment rates. Gravity equations estimating the determinants of mobility flows suggest that the ability of intra-EU relocation flows to serve as a channel of economic adjustment in the EU has continued to increase in the last decade. Immigration has significantly contributed to recent employment growth in the EU. Meanwhile, the broad-based rise in employment rates for all groups suggests that increased employment of people born outside the EU did not crowd out the employment prospects of native-born workers. It has rather permitted to ease labour supply bottlenecks in a context of decelerating working-age population growth and sustained demand for labour. |
| JEL: | J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:241 |
| By: | Piero Ronzani; Wolfgang Stojetz; Sarah Fenzl; Siwar Hakim |
| Abstract: | Climate vulnerability assessments have traditionally relied on macro-level indices and physical exposure models, overlooking household-level heterogeneity and the behavioral determinants of vulnerability. To fill this gap, we develop a general, replicable Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) that measures climate vulnerability at the household level by integrating experience-based exposure, sensitivity, and behavioral adaptive capacity, including risk preferences, time preferences, climate knowledge, and observed adaptive behaviors, into the established IPCC vulnerability framework. The index classifies households into Low, Stress, Crisis, and Emergency categories of climate vulnerability based on a transparent hierarchical logic. Second, we apply this framework to the 2024 UNHCR Vulnerability Assessment Framework (VAF) in Jordan, a representative survey of the UNHCR-registered refugee population (N = 5, 164 refugee households), producing the first behaviorally informed climate vulnerability profile of a national refugee population. Approximately 40 percent of households fall into concerning vulnerability categories and roughly 10 percent are classified as Emergency, with camp-based refugees systematically more vulnerable than those in host communities. Two validation exercises comparing self-reported exposure with objective climatic indicators and benchmarking the CVI against an independent national vulnerability mapping reveal that the household-level index captures dimensions of lived climate risk invisible to aggregate assessments. These findings underscore the value of integrating micro-level and behavioral dimensions into climate vulnerability measurement to improve targeting, anticipatory action, and resilience programming for displaced populations. |
| Keywords: | behavioral adaptation, climate adaptation, climate vulnerability, forced displacement, heat exposure, refugees, resilience |
| JEL: | D81 D91 F22 I32 O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:454 |
| By: | Uma De Balanzo; Nuria Rodriguez-Planas; Jennifer Roff; Núria Rodríguez-Planas |
| Abstract: | We exploit the sharp escalation in community-based ICE enforcement following the January 2025 inauguration to estimate the causal effect of immigration enforcement on consumer spending. Using Synthetic Difference-in-Differences with cross-state variation in surge intensity as the identifying variation, we find that states experiencing the largest enforcement surges saw aggregate card spending decline by 1.7 percentage points relative to their SDiD counterfactual, an effect robust to covariate adjustment, alternative shock windows, and pre-tariff truncation. Null estimates for non-in-person spending rule out a broad regional demand shock, while null estimates for jail-based arrests (enforcement invisible to surrounding communities) isolate enforcement visibility as the operative mechanism. Sector-level estimates reveal two empirically distinct channels: in states with Democratic governors, aggregate spending fell by −4.1 pp (p |
| Keywords: | immigration enforcement, consumer spending, synthetic difference-in-differences, ICE arrests, local labor markets |
| JEL: | J15 R11 E21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12662 |
| By: | Valentini, Annaelena; Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Salas Rojo, Pedro |
| Abstract: | We analyse the extent to which a person’s country of origin -alongside other factors beyond their control, such as their parents’ education and occupation- are predictive of adult incomes in Europe. Interpreting the joint predictive power of inherited circumstances as a measure of inequality of opportunity, we employ data-driven methods to estimate inequality of opportunity for household disposable incomes, treating Europe as a single entity. To ensure representativeness, we combine data from EUROSTAT and three different household surveys to construct a sample that represents the population of Europe, accounting for country-of-birth population shares within countries. We estimate overall inequality in Europe at 39 Gini points in 2019, with inequality predicted by ascriptive characteristics accounting for a full 23 Gini points. The country where a person was born accounts for 64% of the latter figure, emerging as the most significant predictor compared to other factors such as parental occupation (26%) and parental education (9%). The level of inequality of opportunity observed in Europe as a whole is comparable to that in China and India and significantly higher than estimates for the United States. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity; place of birth; migration; income distribution; Europe |
| JEL: | D31 J60 O52 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138074 |