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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Gundert, Hannah; Spix, Julia |
| Abstract: | A growing number of countries have introduced Digital Nomad Visas (DNVs) to accommodate the rise of location-independent remote work, often paired with tax incentives. Using simulation analysis, this paper examines the effective tax burden of digital nomads under DNVs in the EU. Results show that tax burdens are sensitive to host country choice, double tax treaty provisions, and duration of stay, with the 183-day threshold proving critical. Tax planning can generate substantial tax savings for digital nomads who relocate strategically. This raises tax fairness concerns, as host countries may bear costs associated with digital nomads without proportionate income tax revenue. |
| Keywords: | Digital nomad visas, Digital nomads, Personal income tax, Effective tax rates |
| JEL: | H24 H26 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:344103 |
| By: | Tarek Alexander Hassan; Aakash Kalyani; Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle |
| Abstract: | We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which earlier technologies appear in the founding patents of new ones, we recover a large-scale input–output network of technological recombination that identifies the foreign technologies that serve as inputs into innovation in the United States. We report four main findings. First, foreign ideas are pervasive: 54% of U.S. technologies build on at least one foreign input, and the most fertile U.S. technologies rely on foreign inputs most heavily. Second, foreign ideas have large causal effects on U.S. innovation. Using the historical settlement of migrants as a source of exogenous variation in local ancestry, we show that U.S. counties more exposed to knowledge from a given foreign country absorb substantially more technologies from that country and, in turn, invent significantly more U.S. technologies building on them. Third, foreign ideas shape not only the level but also the direction of technical change: U.S. counties are far more likely to pioneer the specific technologies whose foreign inputs are already in their local idea stock, and the changing origins of foreign ideas accompany the shift of American innovation from its historical heartland toward the coasts. Fourth, these effects leave a lasting imprint on local labor markets: decades later, counties that absorbed more of an origin’s ideas host more jobs working with those ideas, and even more work with the U.S. technologies descended from them. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O31 O33 O34 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35900 |
| By: | Romanyuk, Andriy; Corsini, Alberto; Ganguli, Ina; Lissoni, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of the introduction of the first visa scheme for foreign researchers in France (the carte de sejour "scientifique-chercheur") introduced in 1998 on the post-graduation stay rates of foreign-born doctoral graduates at French universities. We build a novel dataset containing all doctoral graduates in STEM disciplines from 1992 to 2002 and their scientific publications. We distinguish between non-EU graduates, to whom the carte de sejour applied, and French or other EU graduates, to whom it did not using a name-based ethnicity analysis. We then assess short- and long-term career stay outcomes using graduates’ post-PhD publication activity and affiliation locations, and identify those who later become doctoral supervisors themselves. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy with repeated cross-sectional cohorts of graduates, we find no meaningful effects of the visa policy. These results are robust across the different career stay outcomes and alternative implementations of our name analysis. We discuss three possible reasons for this lack of impact, and its implications for talent attraction policies in Europe. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Migration policy, Scientific research, Graduate studies |
| JEL: | F22 K37 O15 O3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344145 |
| By: | Adunts, Davit (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vortisch, Andreas B. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "In 2015, the German government introduced the Western Balkans Regulation, expanding employment access for citizens of the six Western Balkan countries within a broader policy environment that also tightened asylum procedures and return enforcement. This paper investigates changes in migration aspirations and first residence permits in response to the policy. Using a cross-nested logit, we find that the initial Regulation significantly increased migration aspirations toward Germany, whereas subsequent extensions did not raise aspirations further. A synthetic difference-in-differences analysis estimates approximately 14, 000 additional employment permits annually, with particularly large effects for Kosovo. Total first residence permits increased by approximately 17, 200 annually relative to the synthetic counterfactual. While the estimate may also capture substitution induced by contemporaneous asylum-policy tightening, the Regulation provides the most direct explanation for the increase in employment permits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2026–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202607 |
| By: | Schubert, Torben (Fraunhofer ISI; CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s exports in ICT services, one of few internationally competitive sectors not based on natural resources, fell from US$7.23 billion in 2021 to US$2.70 billion in 2025, while those of Georgia, Armenia and Montenegro together rose from US$0.72 billion to US$2.99 billion. Relying on synthetic controls, we provide evidence that the gains of these countries were linked to a mass exodus of Russian IT developers, who were able to enter these countries visa-free and stay for extended periods. Our evidence shows that in Georgia, Armenia and Montenegro, ICT exports exceeded their synthetic counterfactuals by about US$3.3 billion in 2022-2024. Additional analyses on a smaller set of control countries show evidence that this effect persists in 2025. Moreover, about 42, 000 additional developer accounts appeared on GitHub, an increase of 40 % over the three countries’ 2021 stock. Finally, we provide evidence that developers also transferred their international networks: collaboration per developer with partners outside Russia and Belarus increased nearly fourfold, while the number of partner economies rose by 19. Most of the new ties lead to Europe and North America rather than to Russia. The effects persisted completely or at least partially until the end of our observation period. |
| Keywords: | Skilled migration; ICT services; Synthetic control; Sanctions; Software developers; Russia |
| JEL: | F14 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2026_011 |
| By: | Adrien Vandenbunder |
| Abstract: | What explains why, from the same country of origin, some migrants depart with legal documents while others risk their lives on clandestine routes? I address this question using Senegal’s 2023 population census, which for the first time in any national census records the legal status at departure of recent international emigrants. Combining this with the two previous Senegalese censuses of 2002 and 2013, I document a sharp spatial segmentation between regular and irregular migration to Europe and trace its origins to historically rooted, destination-specific migration corridors. I argue that migrant networks are not homogeneous: ties to documented migrants transmit a different form of migration capital than ties to undocumented migrants. To test this hypothesis, I estimate linear probability models comparing irregular with regular migrants to Europe, controlling for a broad set of socio-economic characteristics along with department, destination and year fixed-effects. The results confirm that both community and family migration networks, distinguished by migration mode, are among the strongest predictors of how individuals migrate. |
| Keywords: | Irregular migration, legal status, migration networks, Senegal, population census, MIGRATION INTERNATIONALE / INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, IMMIGRE EN SITUATION IRREGULIERE / IRREGULAR MIGRANTS, STATUT JURIDIQUE / LEGAL STATUS, RECENSEMENT DE POPULATION / POPULATION CENSUSES, SENEGAL / SENEGAL |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:8rq5iaebvlst1fmlv8hr |
| By: | Michele Battisti; Giovanni Peri; Eleonora Romano |
| Abstract: | Immigration affects natives through both labor markets and public budgets, yet these channels are usually studied separately. We combine them in a general-equilibrium model with search-and-matching frictions, skill-specific progressive labor taxes, capital taxation and public goods, calibrated to 17 OECD countries over 2015-2019. The welfare effect on natives of a one-percentage-point increase in immigrant inflows varies in sign and size across countries, hinging on immigrants' skill mix, immigrant-native wage gaps, resident unemployment, and tax progressivity. For inflows matching the skill composition of 2019-2024 arrivals, native welfare rises in 14 of 17 economies, and in most cases both skill groups gain, through different channels. Lower-skilled natives gain mainly from higher pre-tax earnings, driven by job creation and complementarity with skilled immigrants; higher-skilled natives gain mainly from lower labor-tax burdens. Evaluating immigration policy thus requires modeling labor-market and fiscal channels jointly: either channel alone gives an incomplete picture of who gains and why. |
| JEL: | E24 F22 H20 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35901 |
| By: | Laura Muñoz Blanco |
| Abstract: | While early marriage continues to be a pressing concern, especially in developing countries, there has been a rapid rise in the number of forcibly displaced individuals. This paper sheds light on the relationship between forced displacement and early marriage for stayers and forcibly displaced women. I generate the results by leveraging a unique data set and exploiting the plausibly exogenous occurrence of earthquakes within Indonesian provinces. I show that exposure to earthquakes and their associated earthquake-induced population outflows increase the likelihood of women marrying before the age of 18 by 44% compared to non-exposed young women. The impacts exhibit substantial heterogeneity, with stronger effects observed among earthquake-induced migrant women compared to those who remain in their original communities (stayers). Financial coping strategies, such as marriage payments, increased labour returns upon the husband joining the household, and improved social integration within receiving communities contribute to early marriage among induced migrants, while stayer women lack these incentives. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-11 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (University of Insubria); Hao Wei (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether migrants and native-born workers respond differently to pension reforms that encourage longer working lives. Using longitudinal data from SHARE Waves 4–9 for Germany and Spain, we construct individual reform exposure based on country-specific reform timing, birth-cohort eligibility, and proximity to retirement age, and estimate models with individual and survey-wave fixed effects. Reform exposure is associated with a lower probability of retirement, with suggestive evidence of an additional decline among migrants. This migrant differential is particularly pronounced in Spain, while the corresponding estimate is small and statistically insignificant in Germany, although formal cross-country tests do not establish a statistically significant difference between the two countries. Complementary analyses indicate that adjustment is concentrated around retirement ages rather than reflecting a broad increase in employment, while evidence for effects on mental health and generalized trust is limited. Overall, the findings suggest that migrants may respond differently to pension reform, but that these differences are concentrated at specific retirement margins and depend on the institutional context |
| Keywords: | Migration, Retirement, Mental Health, Generalized Trust, SHARE |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J26 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-013 |
| By: | Kirill Borusyak; Rafael Dix-Carneiro; Brian K. Kovak |
| Abstract: | A commonly used migration regression relates population changes to local labor demand shocks, often yielding small or statistically insignificant coefficients despite sizable effects on labor market outcomes. We argue that such findings need not imply that mobility is unresponsive to local economic conditions. Rather, conventional migration regressions can be biased, as they do not reflect how workers choose among competing locations. In a parsimonious equilibrium model, local population growth depends on differences between local shocks and those in relevant destinations; when these shocks are correlated, estimated responses are attenuated. Moreover, with industry-level shocks, standard shift-share measures misrepresent locations’ effective exposure, leading to further attenuation. Using simulation experiments based on Brazilian and German administrative data, we show attenuation can exceed 50% and that conventional regression estimates can be highly imprecise. We propose theory-grounded empirical approaches that correct the biases, deliver estimates with a clear structural interpretation, and improve the precision of estimated mobility responses. |
| JEL: | C21 F16 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35921 |
| By: | Abhay Aneja; Guo Xu |
| Abstract: | States that delegate governance to local officials face a trade-off between the benefits of local knowledge and the costs of biased administrators. Can imposing federal standards discipline bias and improve uniformity? We study this question by examining the introduction of federal standards to apply for citizenship under the 1906 Naturalization Act. Using newly-digitized census records covering over five million immigrants and a 30-year period, we show that standardizing adjudication of citizenship applications resulted in rapid convergence of naturalization practices across cities. While naturalizations were around 30% higher in election years pre-reform, this electoral cycle disappeared after the introduction of federal standards. Exploiting the staggered adoption of municipal civil service reforms aimed at removing patronage during the Progressive Era, we find that the reduction in political cycles was strongest in unreformed cities. Finally, the contraction in election year naturalizations changed the composition of new citizens. Affected cohorts earned 7% more, were more likely to enter citizenship-restricted occupations, and gave children more Americanized names. Our results thus show that standardizing administrative procedures can discipline politically-biased policy implementation. |
| JEL: | H1 H7 J15 N41 N42 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35903 |