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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Valli, Roberto (ETH Zürich) |
| Abstract: | Difference-in-differences designs often study place-based treatments that can trigger migration in and out of treated areas. When treatment changes who is observed, aggregate and within-individual DiD no longer retrieve the average treatment effect on the treated. This paper uses principal stratification to characterize three estimands under treatment-induced migration: a locality-level treatment effect, a stayer average treatment effect, and an individual ATT for the pre-treatment population. Aggregate DiD identifies the locality-level effect under aggregate parallel trends, while within-individual DiD identifies the stayer effect under stayer parallel trends. Together, the two assumptions imply parallel trends for escapees, a non-trivial restriction on the group whose departure drives compositional change. With panel data, the stayer effect and the compositional term are point-identified, and the ATT lies in a one-parameter sensitivity region. With repeated cross-sections, Lee-type bounds apply in the one-sided exit case. An appendix extends these results to natural turnover and treated-control interference. |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s7pw3_v1 |
| By: | Karim Bekhtiar; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | Providing recently laid offworkers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each other. For this we use a severance pay regulation in Austria, which generated a sharp cutoff after which workers became eligible to a severance payment of two monthly salaries. Our results indicate that this cash payment increased labor mobility by around 8% to 12%. This increase is much stronger for worker groups with lower baseline mobility rates. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, labor mobility, internal migration, commuting |
| JEL: | J18 J61 J65 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2026-03 |
| By: | Ryan Kim; Justin H. Leung; Ariel Weinberger |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how immigration affects consumer prices. Using scanner data and instrumenting county-level immigration with historical ancestry patterns, we find that an inflow of 10, 000 immigrants lowers four-year price growth by 0.58 percentage points. Leveraging variation in firm exposure through sales versus production locations, we show price declines stem entirely from the product demand channel: firms lower prices in response to immigrants in sales markets, not production locations. Evidence suggests that immigrants search more intensively, exhibit higher demand elasticity, pay lower prices for identical products, and shift expenditure toward lower-appeal products — consistent with a model of heterogeneous price sensitivity. |
| Keywords: | immigration, consumer prices, search, demand elasticity |
| JEL: | F22 E31 L11 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12588 |
| By: | Mundra, Kusum (Rutgers University); Liu, Tianhao (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | Using immigrant stock across skill levels from 97 origin countries within the period 1991-95 and 2001-05, this paper employs a gravity econometric model to examine the effect of skilled versus unskilled immigrants on the bilateral trade of 21 OECD host country, while taking into account the home country corruption. When all home countries are considered we find that immigrants across skill groups significantly increase bilateral trade, though with increasing corruption tertiary educated immigrants have a strong pro export effect and primary educated immigrants consistently promote imports. When only non-OECD immigrant origin country is considered the significant marginal effect of immigration is only seen for imports, while the export effect disappears under the weaker institutional conditions. We find that immigrants appear to “grease the wheels†of trade when their home countries are highly corrupt, but this positive effect is only sustained when the broader institutional environment remains relatively effective. Our findings hold across different robustness checks, including the use of different corruption measures, instrumental variable (2SLS) and alternative Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation. |
| Keywords: | immigration, imports, exports, corruption, skill, gravity model |
| JEL: | F14 F22 D73 D8 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18470 |
| By: | Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The model of manufacturing export-led growth followed by a number of countries in East Asia and beyond is becoming ever more complex to emulate. But new pathways to rapid growth for developing countries are emerging. Higher-income countries are seeing rapidly declining working-age populations, creating an increased demand for immigrants. Emigration is already a significant source of household income and human capital investment, and remittances are on a similar scale to manufactured export revenues for many countries. But for emigration to be a key element of a growth strategy requires harnessing migration for structural transformation, involving a focus on emigration to countries that can provide the needed skills, investment and trade opportunities to accomplish that. |
| Date: | 2026–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:385 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti |
| Abstract: | Abstract The report demonstrates that the economic impacts of immigration are not unequivocally positive or negative, but are decisively influenced by the structure of immigration and the success of integration. Work-based and highly educated immigration clearly yields positive effects for public finances, whereas humanitarian immigration is initially a fiscal burden, although outcomes may improve with effective integration. Those who arrive for protection purposes tend to have lower employment rates and income levels compared to the native population for a prolonged period, even though these differences narrow as their length of stay increases. In the context of an ageing population, immigration also has growing long-term significance. The shrinking working-age population reduces labour supply, productivity and the sustainability of public finances, and to reverse this trend Finland needs a higher net immigration than at present. Increasing work-based immigration in particular strengthens economic growth and the funding base of the welfare state. The overall message is that the economic impacts of immigration are determined both by who moves to Finland and by how the country supports their integration. With appropriately targeted policies, immigration can enhance labour supply, increase productivity, and strengthen the sustainability of public finances even in the long term. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Integration, Labour market, Public finances, Economic impacts |
| JEL: | J61 H53 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:176 |
| By: | Guillermo Prieto-Viertel; Carsten K\"allner; Elma Dervic; Ola Ali; Andrea Vismara; Rafael Prieto-Curiel |
| Abstract: | Political discourse attributes the pressure on European welfare systems to foreign nationals. Yet projections of service demand rarely disaggregate service demand by citizenship status. We develop a structural demographic model and project healthcare, education, and housing demand in Austria through 2050, disaggregated by citizenship status and regions across migration scenarios. We find that migration, ageing, and fertility shape each sector differently. In healthcare, the ageing of Austrian nationals contributes 4.7 times more to demand growth than immigration, with the most acute pressures in rural, low-migration regions. In housing, migration accounts for the entire net growth in demand, concentrated in metropolitan hubs. In education, aggregate demand contracts regardless of migration assumptions, whereas future needs are driven more by the births of foreigners in Austria than by new arrivals. Foreign nationals consume services in proportion to their demographic weight, with deviations explained by age structure rather than over-utilisation. These results show that the drivers of service demand are sector-specific: migration restrictions could ease housing pressure, but would not address ageing-driven healthcare demand and may accelerate contraction in the education system. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26525 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti |
| Abstract: | Abstract Immigration affects the Finnish economy in various ways, including through the labour market, productivity, and public finances. The economic impact depends primarily on the skills of the newcomers and the success of their integration. Work-based and highly educated immigration strengthens employment, productivity, and tax revenues rapidly, whereas the economic benefits of humanitarian immigration tend to be weaker. Immigration increases the supply of labour, supports business growth and innovation, and expands exports. In terms of public finances, the effects differ significantly between groups, but integration measures play a key role: targeted language training, recognition of skills, and swift access to the labour market improve employment and reduce the need for income transfers, as well as deliver benefits across generations. In the long term, Finland needs immigration to stabilise the working-age population and safeguard the conditions for economic growth as the population ages and the workforce declines. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Integration, Labour market, Public finances, Economic impacts |
| JEL: | J61 H53 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:177 |
| By: | Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Bucheli, Jose (University of Texas at El Paso) |
| Abstract: | Access to the labor market is crucial for the economic integration of asylum seekers. This study estimates the causal impact of work authorization timing on the labor market outcomes of likely asylum seekers. We link USCIS administrative records with American Community Survey microdata and use congestion-driven variation in processing times within an instrumental variable framework. Faster authorization boosts labor force participation, employment, and earnings, while effects on hours worked and occupational choices are modest. The impacts are concentrated within the first decade after arrival and diminish over time, indicating that processing delays slow integration but do not permanently hinder it. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, work authorization, labor market integration, United States |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 K37 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18462 |
| By: | Adaramola, Shekinah |
| Abstract: | In March 2026, the UK Home Secretary announced that 350, 000 “low‑skilled workers and their dependents” would cost taxpayers £10 billion over their lifetimes. She used this figure to justify making migrants wait longer before they can settle in the UK. This paper investigates where the £10 billion claim came from, how it was used in the speech, and what the wider evidence actually says about migrants’ financial contributions. The research finds that the £10 billion figure does not appear as a main finding in the reports it was said to come from. Instead, it is a combination of three specific groups that the reports show would have a negative impact. Those same reports also show that skilled workers would contribute £47 billion more than they cost—a fact the Home Secretary did not mention. The speech also left out another important context: the average UK‑born person also has a negative lifetime fiscal balance; most migrants are already paying taxes while being barred from receiving benefits; and the figures come with many uncertainties. The wider literature confirms that negative fiscal impacts are concentrated in particular subgroups, while most migrants make net positive contributions over their lifetimes. The paper argues that the £10 billion figure functions as a political artefact: its selective deployment constructs migrants as a fiscal burden, legitimising restrictive settlement policy while foreclosing honest public deliberation about trade‑offs, long‑term planning, and institutional credibility in migration governance. Keywords: migration policy, fiscal impact, settlement, quantification, political discourse, United Kingdom |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f46w8_v1 |
| By: | Kumar Gautam, Santosh (University of Notre Dame); Shandal, Monica (University of California, Santa Cruz); Zucker, Ariel (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of rural road connectivity on economic and novel governance outcomes in the context of the world’s largest rural road program, India’s PMGSY. Using a novel village-level survey designed around PMGSY’s rollout, we exploit quasi-random variation in road placement to estimate causal effects of connectivity on agricultural and labor markets as well as governance and political connectivity. We find evidence that roads support market access, as local producer prices increase by 1.3 SD and agricultural outputs diversify. Despite the improved agricultural output prices and options, labor shifts away from agriculture to casual work, suggesting improved non-agricultural market access. Interestingly, increases in casual labor are almost exclusively local to the connected village, and we find a decrease of short- and medium-term migration by 0.8 SD. Additionally, road connectivity increases local state presence, with a 1.1 SD increase in an index of official government visits and a 0.9 SD increase in an index of political connectivity, and leads to higher wages on government construction projects and lower prices in government shops. Our findings show that road leads to more vibrant and diverse rural economies. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, governance, PMGSY, labor markets, migration, India |
| JEL: | J43 O12 O18 R23 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18468 |
| By: | Etienne Farvaque; Jean-Baptiste Gossé; Camille Jehle |
| Abstract: | Households across European Union regions face diverse economic shocks impacting wage income and welfare. Understanding the channels through which households adjust their income is crucial for assessing regional resilience. Here we analyze regional (NUTS2) data from 2000 to 2020, decomposing income smoothing into public transfers, property income, self-employment and housing income, and demographic changes. We find that approximately 30% of wage shocks are smoothed in the EU, rising to more than 40% in the euro area and 60% in Western Europe, with transfers and self-employment/housing income as the primary adjustment mechanisms. Property income plays a strong role in Western Europe, particularly during recessions, while migration contributes modestly but significantly to smoothing in Southern and Western Europe. Our analysis reveals distinct regional patterns, delineating core, semi-peripheral, and peripheral groups with varying smoothing capacities. These findings highlight substantial regional heterogeneity in income adjustment, underscoring the multi-speed nature of economic integration and the importance of tailored policies to enhance household resilience across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Risk-Sharing, Income Smoothing, Currency Unions, Migration |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1037 |