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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens; Amy M. Nice; Natalia Rigol |
| Abstract: | Legalizing work by asylum seekers is politically contested. Many states view work permits as a necessary expedient for self-reliance. Others limit or ban asylum seekers' labor, citing concerns about labor-market competition for natives, fiscal drain, and ‘magnet' effects on subsequent asylum inflows. Empirical tests of these effects are numerous in Europe, rare in the United States. We use full-universe anonymized court records that precisely locate asylum applicants' residences to test the effects of the post-2021 surge in asylum-seeker arrivals on native labor-market outcomes, and on fiscal and economic-growth indicators at the local level. Using a nationality-based shift-share instrument across commuting zones, we find that an asylum-seeker inflow equal to 1% of local population raises incumbent employment by 2.8 percentage points, wages by 6.3%, and local real GDP by approximately 5.5%, while reducing unemployment and means-tested public-benefit reliance. The result is consistent with asylum seekers' labor acting as a strong complement to native labor and native capital in the production process due to task specialization. It is also in line with independent estimates of macroeconomic impacts from general-equilibrium models. We find no relationship between major changes in the number of asylum applications (past collapses and recent surges alike) and changes in US employment-authorization policy for asylum seekers. The evidence supports a substantial stimulus to local economies from asylum seekers' labor, and shows no important role for formal work authorization in asylum seekers' migration decisions. |
| Keywords: | immigration, asylum, forced, economic, impact, employment, irregular |
| JEL: | J61 J15 R23 H53 K37 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26169 |
| By: | Zachary Ward |
| Abstract: | During the Age of Mass Migration, over forty percent of immigrants were women, yet most research focuses on men. Using linked 1900 and 1910 Census records, I show that economic assimilation patterns differed for men and women, and families assimilated at different rates than individuals. Immigrant families improved their relative income scores compared with US-born families, driven by reliance on multiple earners, particularly women’s and children’s labor. At the individual level, gaps between immigrant and US-born income scores were larger for women than men, and the gap for women barely changed even after twenty years of stay. |
| JEL: | J61 J62 N31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35332 |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages variation in the access to the Mexican railroad network in the early 1900s to estimate its impact on migration to the United States and evaluate its long-run persistence after passenger rail service became obsolete. Using an IV strategy based on least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that locations with railroad access had migration rates four times higher than those without in the early twentieth century. Sequential migration was the key mechanism: railroads first facilitated internal mobility toward railroad hubs, then onward migration to the US. Railroad access also contributed to structural transformation, raising urbanization and local economic development. In terms of persistence, locations with historical railroad access show weakly lower total migration rates to the US in the early 21st century, consistent with local economic growth reducing the incentive to migrate. Yet destination-specific patterns prove remarkably durable: locations that disproportionately sent migrants to California, Arizona, or Texas in the 1900s continued to do so in the 2000s, reflecting the persistence of migrant networks. |
| JEL: | J60 N36 N76 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35358 |
| By: | Anna Janicka (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Hayk Amirkhanyan (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs. |
| Keywords: | migration intentions, migration behavior, migration decision-making, intention-behavior gap, social media analysis, Twitter data, geolocated data, linguistic cues, migration prediction, human mobility, Poland |
| JEL: | J61 D91 J10 C55 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-23 |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Prasad (Deakin University); Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (Indian Statistical Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of migrant inflows due to forced displacement events on the social capital in the recipient societies. We exploit the setting of Partition of India. Using data from districts in post 1947 India belonging to six states that saw a higher inflow of migrants, relative to outflow, we analyse how the ‘shock’ inflow of migrants affected social capital in the districts sixty years later. The shock is measured as the proportion of “displaced†migrants in Indian districts in 1951 from census data. Survey data conducted in 2007 indicates that social capital is lower in districts that received more Partition migrants. The effect remains strongly robust to spatial robustness checks, contemporary differences in a host of demographic and public goods provision indicators. We find that these effects are mediated through riots, community conflicts and violent crime that start from Partition sixty years ago and continue through to more recent times. We also find that political participation, a proxy for social capital, falls over time in districts which see a relatively larger flow of displaced migrants. Our study contributes to the understanding of the long run implications of large forced displacement events. |
| Keywords: | partition, social capital, forced displacement |
| JEL: | O15 N3 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18685 |
| By: | Möller, Joachim (University of Regensburg and Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | During and after World War II, West Germany absorbed around eight million refugees and displaced persons, including nearly two million children. This provides a natural experiment to examine whether birthplace characteristics exert persistent effects on later labor-market outcomes. Using administrative labor-market biographies for the 1935–1950 birth cohorts combined with geocoded information on birthplaces and workplaces, we find that birthplace urbanicity is strongly associated with later labor-market outcomes not only among both native-born individuals but also among expellees. Individuals originating from urban regions earn systematically higher daily wages than those born in rural areas, even after controlling for workplace region, education, and occupation. Among displaced individuals, the effects are considerably stronger for women than for men and are especially pronounced for expellees from the Czech lands. The findings suggest that urban-origin advantages were transmitted across generations through education, occupational sorting, and family-specific social and cultural capital. |
| Keywords: | urban origins, forced migration, birthplace effects, lifetime earnings, labor-market outcomes, regional mobility, gender differences, intergenerational transmission |
| JEL: | R12 R23 J24 J61 N34 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18725 |
| By: | Michael Keller; Christopher R. Knittel; Benjamin Krebs; Simon Luechinger |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of PM₂.₅ pollution on migration between commuting zones in the United States from 2005-2019. To account for the correlation between origin and destination commuting zones’ pollution levels and potential endogeneity, we estimate a dyadic migration model and isolate permanent changes in origin and destination pollution emanating from distant coal-fired power plants. Annual panel and long-difference estimates indicate that air pollution plays a key role in relocation decisions. For the typical commuting zone, an isolated average 2005-2019 PM₂.₅ concentration decrease of 3.85 μg/m³ would avert out-migration and increase in-migration, totaling 2 percent of the population annually. |
| JEL: | Q53 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35317 |
| By: | Max Stick; Feng Hou; Garnett Picot |
| Abstract: | Canada’s immigration system plays an important role in addressing the country’s short- and long-term labour market needs, admitting many immigrants with high levels of education, official language proficiency and work experience. Across provinces and territories, distinct regional population dynamics and economic conditions create varying demands for immigration to address specific workforce gaps, demographic challenges and community development priorities. From 1996 to 2009, all provinces and territories (except for Quebec and Nunavut) signed Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) agreements (Picot et al., 2024). The PNP has two primary aims: (1) to better distribute economic immigrants across the country and (2) to address specific economic needs of the provinces and territories (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada [IRCC], 2017). More economic immigrants entered through the PNP than any other single program in the late 2010s (Picot et al., 2023a). |
| Keywords: | economic outcomes of provincial nominees, express entry, non-express entry |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202600200005e |
| By: | Aleksandrov, Anatoliy |
| Abstract: | European migration governance remains largely deadlocked between two dominant frameworks: rights-based humanitarian protection and state-led securitization. While both address critical vectors – namely baseline legal admission and public order – they systematically bypass the post-arrival phase, where long-term integration dynamics are actually negotiated through daily contact between newcomers, host populations, and municipal state organs. This paper argues that chronic integration failures stem primarily from structural deficiencies in this post-arrival architecture, specifically the lack of institutionalized, professional socio-cultural mediation. We introduce the concept of localized social stabilization mechanisms to capture community-level adjustments occurring when residents perceive formal institutions as incapable of managing rapid demographic shifts, maintaining normative predictability, or enforcing civic reciprocity. Rather than treating these grassroots frictions as mere expressions of xenophobia, our framework approaches them as complex sociological indicators of institutional trust decay. Using a constructivist-institutionalist lens, the paper outlines a five-dimensional integration matrix: legal admission, socio-economic participation, cultural adaptation, civic reciprocity, and local trust-building. Our central contribution is the conceptualization of a “missing layer” – a professionalized, locally deployed mediation infrastructure – as a structural prerequisite for sustainable integration. Ultimately, the analysis demonstrates how strengthening this relational layer allows municipal states to transition from reactive crisis management to adaptive governance models capable of balancing social cohesion with broader European human rights obligations. At the same time, the framework stresses the asymmetrical nature of adaptation: cultural mediation should primarily facilitate newcomers’ acquisition of core host society norms (rule of law, gender equality, secular public space, and individual rights) rather than open-ended mutual compromise. |
| Date: | 2026–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jgu8h_v1 |
| By: | Feng Hou; Nicolas Bastien |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the entry earnings of newly admitted immigrants to Canada have exhibited substantial year-to-year fluctuations. Notably, first-year average earnings increased by 21% for the 2020 admission cohort relative to the previous cohort and by 11% for the 2021 cohort, followed by a 13% decline for the 2022 cohort—despite a continued modest rise in the median wages of all Canadian workers. This article examines the extent to which these fluctuations reflect changes in immigration selection and broader labour-market conditions. Using data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database, the analysis focuses on admission cohorts from 2015 to 2022 and measures earnings (annual wages or salaries) in immigrants’ first full calendar year after admission. Regression and decomposition analyses are used to assess the relative contributions of sociodemographic characteristics—including pre-admission Canadian earnings, immigration class, education, language ability and region of birth—and labour-market conditions, such as industry of employment, provincial unemployment rates and annual earnings of young Canadian-born workers by province. The results show that rapid changes in cohort composition, particularly a large decline in the share of immigrants with pre-admission Canadian earnings, explain most of the sharp decline in entry earnings for the 2022 cohort. Changes in labour-market conditions account for a larger share of the yearly change for earlier cohorts. Once these factors are accounted for, year-to-year fluctuations in entry earnings largely disappear, with steady growth across cohorts, except for a decline related to the COVID-19 pandemic among the 2019 cohort. These findings highlight the central role of two-step immigration pathways, changes in immigration selection and labour-market conditions in shaping the early economic outcomes of immigrants admitted from 2015 to 2022. |
| Keywords: | immigrant entry earnings, fluctuated widely in recent years, labour-market conditions |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2026–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202600400003e |
| By: | Demirci, Murat (Koc University); Foster, Andrew (Brown University); Kirdar, Murat (Koc University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the world’s largest humanitarian unconditional cash transfer program targeting refugees—the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) program—on child nutrition and growth outcomes. Using the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugees, and employing a regression discontinuity design, we assess the program’s effects on child growth—measured by height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and weight-for-height (WHZ), including their extreme values—and on child-level nutrition, measured across five major food categories. We find that receiving cash transfers increases HAZ by 0.6 to 0.8 standard deviations. Additionally, the transfers reduce the incidence of both underweight and overweight status based on WAZ scores. WHZ scores and the incidence of overweight status based on WHZ also decline. Examining the program's impact on nutrition, we find a significant reduction in children’s energy-dense, nutrient-poor food consumption, consistent with the decrease in overweight incidence. Overall, the ESSN program improves food consumption patterns among refugees, leading to better child growth outcomes. |
| Keywords: | refugees, cash transfers, anthropometrics, nutrition, program evaluation, Turkey |
| JEL: | F22 I14 I15 I38 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18731 |
| By: | Maciej Karpinski; Christoph Schimmele; Allison Leanage; Jing Shen; Rubab Arim |
| Abstract: | This study examines socioeconomic correlates of loneliness among immigrants with disabilities, using data from the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability. The findings show that the association between socioeconomic circumstances and severe loneliness differed between immigrants and Canadian-born persons with disabilities. Employment or school participation provided immigrants with disabilities less protection from severe loneliness than it did for Canadian born persons with disabilities. For both groups, food insecurity and core housing need were associated with a higher probability of severe loneliness; however, these associations were stronger for immigrants with disabilities. Immigrants with disabilities had a higher probability of severe loneliness than their Canadian-born counterparts, even in absence of food insecurity, core housing need and low income. Overall, the findings highlight the complex interplay between socioeconomic circumstances and emotional well being among immigrants with disabilities and point to the need for targeted supports that address the unique vulnerabilities of this population. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic correlates, loneliness among immigrants, disabilities |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2026–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202600400004e |
| By: | Max Stick; Christoph Schimmele; Stephane Arabackyj; Jianwei Zhong; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | This study examines trends in wealth gaps among Canadian-born and immigrant families. Canadian-born families held double the median wealth of recent immigrant families in 2016 and 2023, particularly among families where the major income earner lacked a university degree. By contrast, established immigrant families experienced gains, surpassing Canadian-born families in median wealth by 2023, with this advantage concentrated among families without a university degree. Established immigrant families with a university-educated major income earner continued to trail their Canadian-born counterparts, but this wealth gap narrowed over time. Across all groups, equity in principal residences was the primary source of wealth. Recent immigrant families held less housing equity than Canadian-born families, while established immigrant families held more. Pension assets were lower among both immigrant groups, with a persistent gap for recent immigrant families and a reduced gap for established immigrant families. |
| Keywords: | Trends in the wealth gap, immigrant and Canadian-born families |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202600300002e |
| By: | Fernanda Rojas-Ampuero; Felipe Carrera |
| Abstract: | We examine the difference between two policies that target urban slums, relocation versus redevelopment on-site, on children’s future outcomes. We use evidence from a slum clearance program in Chile between 1979 and 1984, where two-thirds of slum-dwelling families were relocated to housing projects on the city’s periphery, and one-third received housing through on-site redevelopment at their original locations. We find that 40 years post-policy, displaced children receive 0.62 fewer years of schooling, earn 10.2% less, experience higher labor informality, and live in higher poverty areas compared to non-displaced children. Relocation to lower-opportunity areas and disruption of social networks explain the negative displacement effects. |
| JEL: | H75 I38 J13 N36 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35318 |
| By: | Richard De Thorpe |
| Abstract: | How has remote work reshaped residential sorting and housing demand, and what are the implications for state and local governments? To estimate causal effects, I propose a novel instrument for remote work that exploits quasi-random variation in the timing and size of office lease expirations, captured through a Bartik-style exposure measure at the residential block level. Expirations allow tenant firms to reduce office space and switch employees to remote work, generating strong first-stage effects. Remote work causes modest increases in housing and property tax expenditures in exchange for space, homeownership, and public schools, but not other neighborhood characteristics. It significantly increases migration, particularly out of cities and states that levy income taxes. At the neighborhood level, higher 2020 remote work shares cause subsequent residential turnover, demographic clustering, and property tax revenue windfalls. Taken together, the results indicate that remote work induces migration consistent with Tiebout sorting, and accounts for 10% of migration since 2020. Residential choices and tax bases now depend less on employment proximity and more on affordability and tax-benefit linkage. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-34 |