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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Ms. Alina Carare; Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov; Jessie Kilembe; Felipe Leal |
| Abstract: | We augment the two-country DSGE model from Mandelman and Zlate (2012) with endogenous migration of both skilled and unskilled labor, and analyze the economic impact of restricting migration for each type of labor on the migrants’ source and host countries. We calibrate the model with data for Guatemala and the U.S. as the source and host countries respectively. Restricting unskilled immigration has a more severe contractionary impact on the host economy than restricting skilled migration—reducing aggregate output by approximately 1 percent and consumption by 0.6 percent compared to the steady state—, given that in the steady state a lot more unskilled migrants are needed in the production function. Restricting unskilled immigration impacts negatively skilled immigration flows, but not vice versa, and it has a significant overall impact on the source economy, with aggregate consumption and income declining (mostly due to a fall in remittances). Our findings also highlight a key policy trade-off for the host economy: while a restrictive immigration policy (especially for unskilled labor) could reduce wage inequality by compressing the skill premium—raising host-country unskilled wages by 8 percent while lowering skilled wages by 1 percent compared to the steady state—, and could increase output per capita, it comes at the cost of lower overall economic activity and aggregate consumption. Moreover, by increasing the wage gap for unskilled labor between host and source economies, it also raises incentives for immigration, despite the increased cost of migration. |
| Keywords: | International Migration; Immigration Policy; Remittances; Skill Heterogeneity; Endogenous Migration; DSGE Model |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/182 |
| By: | Knapp, Nadine; Koch, Anne |
| Abstract: | Route-based approaches promise a paradigm shift in international refugee and migration policy. Rather than treating individual country contexts in isolation, they shift attention to developments along key migration corridors. The analytical value is obvious, given the complex and transnational character of mobility dynamics. Yet the growing popularity of route-based approaches also follows a political rationale - they resonate across different political camps, offer operational synergies and may help allocate scarce resources more effectively. At the same time, the concept reflects a fundamental tension in international migration policy: route-based approaches can improve protection along migration corridors, but they can also legitimise the outsourcing of migration control to countries of origin and transit. Whether route-based approaches amount to substantive change or merely repackage a logic of control will depend on how they are implemented. |
| Keywords: | Route-based Approach, RBA, Whole-of-Route Approach, mixed migration, migration corridors, migration management, protection needs, gaps in protection, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, IFRC, International Organization for Migration, IOM, Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, Save the Children, European Strategy for Asylum and Migration Management, migration control, migration diplomacy, Team Europe Initiative, UN80 process |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:343137 |
| By: | Khan, Akib (Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics); Lundberg, Erik (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Aging populations and labor shortages in skill-intensive sectors have led many countries to pursue targeted policies to attract international talent. We study a migration reform in Sweden that offered international doctoral students from outside the EU an easier path to permanent residency. Implemented in 2014, the reform shortened the required period of residence from eight to four years, allowed these students to obtain permanent residency immediately after graduation, and granted their spouses a work permit during their doctoral studies. Using the European students as a comparison group in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the treated international students are 10.5 pp (18%) more likely to stay in Sweden three years after graduation. Higher settlement prospects also increase their language investments and marriage rates during the PhD. These effects are larger for cohorts that have longer exposure to the reform and for those who carry out their doctoral research in STEM. In addition, the reform raises both employment and language investments among the partners of the treated international students. Taken together, the policy increases permanent residency among international graduates as well as leads them and their families to make long-term choices conducive to integration. Finally, using a shift-share design, where we combine the reform with the pre-existing variation in the share of international students across research fields, we find positive peer effects on residency. More international students settling in Sweden increases the probability of their European peers making the same choice. |
| Keywords: | permanent residency; skilled immigration; international doctoral students; language acquisition; family formation; Sweden |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J12 J24 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2026–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_015 |
| By: | Vittoria Dicandia; Silvia Vannutelli |
| Abstract: | We study how firms and workers adjust when previously restricted migrants gain full and portable work rights in a labor market with substantial informality. We exploit the 2007 EU accession of Bulgaria and Romania, which granted unrestricted work rights to Italy's largest migrant group. Using matched employer–employee administrative data and an IV-DID design, we find that firms suddenly and persistently shift employment composition toward EU07 workers, compressing the native employment share without reducing native hiring or increasing separations. We don't detect any significant change in wages for either natives or EU07 workers. For migrants, this null effect reflects offsetting compositional shifts as newly observed and incumbent EU07 workers enter the formal workforce with different wage trajectories. Consistent with a shift in bargaining power toward workers, EU07 migrants experienced significant gains in job mobility and job security. Overall, the evidence suggests that removing legal restrictions reshaped firms’ personnel choices and altered migrants’ employment relationships, improving their outside options, bargaining position, and access to more secure jobs. |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35493 |
| By: | Dan Black; Anna Malinovskaya; Seth Sanders |
| Abstract: | In this project we attempted to model the tax induced migration of older Americans. We did this by linking the ACS to the MARF file to study the timing of migration. We show that the MARF file can successfully follow people across time and space and create population statistics on migration by characteristics observed in the ACS. Two issues make this strategy of limited use for studying tax incentivized migration. First, while the MARF allows longitudinal analysis of migration, the cross-sectional nature of the ACS does not allow us to observe the antecedents especially retirement. Second, the asset measures available in the ACS are poor proxies of wealth and make it difficult to conduct a designed based analysis when classifying individuals by their tax incentive to move is important. We suggest that more detailed asset data is needed to accomplish this goal. We also attempted to study migration of older individuals by linking individuals age 56-61 observed in Census 2000 to their records in Census 2010 and documented their 10-year migration patterns by wealth (proxied by housing wealth) and the tax rate of their origin and destination states. In this report, we present our findings on the 10-year migration patterns of these older individuals originating from California, New York, and Illinois. |
| Keywords: | ACS, MARF, Decennial Census 2000 and 2010 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-34 |
| By: | Gaetano Basso; Mitali R. Mathur; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | OECD countries experienced declining native population growth and rising net immigration over 1990-2024. We compile a new dataset of net immigration rates to OECD countries from all origins and show that most of the increase came from non-OECD countries and was predominantly high-skilled. Push factors, network effects, and policy indices explain little of the large cross-country heterogeneity in immigration dynamics; unexpected shocks and surges were common. Using local projections and several sources of identifying variation, we then estimate the relationship between immigration and growth in GDP per capita, labor productivity, capital investment, and total factor productivity (TFP). Immigration from non-OECD countries was a significant predictor of GDP per worker growth, primarily through higher investment. High-skilled immigration, in particular, was associated with stronger human capital accumulation, faster TFP growth, and greater capital deepening. Native population growth, by contrast, had no or weakly negative effects on GDP per capita and productivity. These results are consistent with a large literature documenting the positive productivity and growth effects of immigration, especially high-skilled immigration. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35523 |
| By: | Benjamín Cornejo-Costas |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how cultural diversity of migrant inventors' teams influences a region’s capacity to produce green breakthrough innovations. It posits that highly skilled migrants enhance diversity, driving the recombination of new and impactful green technologies. The research also emphasises the significance of local capabilities in enabling regions to absorb and utilise the diverse knowledge these teams bring. Using patent data and inventor nationalities, the study analyses green breakthrough innovations across 281 NUTS2 regions in Europe over a span of 20 years. The findings reveal that cultural diversity plays a critical role in fostering such innovations. Moreover, this effect is amplified when new technologies are related to existing ones in the region, underscoring the importance of local capabilities. This research contributes to Evolutionary Economic Geography by highlighting how a region’s technological portfolio supports the development of related technologies while emphasising the vital role of diverse knowledge in driving green innovation. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity, migrant inventors, breakthrough innovations, related capabilities |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O31 O33 Q55 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2621 |
| By: | Erin P. Gibson; Christopher L. House; Christian Proebsting; Linda L. Tesar |
| Abstract: | Unemployment rates are substantially higher and more volatile in the euro area relative to the United States. We ask to what extent the lack of cross-country labor mobility can account for unemployment dynamics in Europe. Our analytical model incorporates downward nominal wage rigidity and an endogenous migration decision. Firms are unable to freely adjust wages during economic contractions, generating an asymmetric distribution of unemployment over the business cycle. The model is calibrated to the dynamics of unemployment and net migration in a typical euro area country. An increase in labor mobility to that observed in the United States and holding all other parameters fixed would reduce the volatility of euro area unemployment by 28% and return over 1, 000, 000 unemployed to the workforce. The welfare cost to a typical euro area country of the currency union is 4.1 percent of permanent consumption; increasing labor mobility reduces this cost to about 3.55 percent. |
| JEL: | F22 F41 F45 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35668 |
| By: | Winikoff, Justin B.; Winkler, Richelle L.; Cromartie, John; Curtis, Katherine J. |
| Abstract: | Population and demographic change can create both challenges and opportunities for rural communities. This report studies migration and aging patterns across U.S. counties from 1980 to 2020 using detailed data on age-specific migration across the rural-urban continuum. As of 2020, nonmetropolitan counties were significantly older (35 percent over age 55) than metropolitan counties (29 percent over age 55) due to age-specific migration over the previous three decades that saw younger people moving towards more urban areas and older people towards rural places. Nonmetropolitan counties lost prime working age people (age 25–54) in the 2010s despite attracting them previously. Furthermore, fewer retirement-aged people moved to nonmetropolitan counties in the 2010s than in previous decades as part of a national trend of lower migration, despite the large number of Baby Boomers reaching retirement age that decade. Rural retirement and recreation destination typology counties experienced in-migration among people aged 30–79, while farming and manufacturing typology counties saw net out-migration at younger ages. Using a decomposition analysis, this report finds that population aging in the 2010s was driven almost entirely by aging in place, rather than migration like in previous decades. Counties to which older people moved tended to be correlated with better economic and health indicators (but higher housing costs) than those counties younger people moved away from or those that experienced significant aging in place. These insights help inform policymaker decisions related to rural prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:410263 |
| By: | Mauro Bambi; Ehud Lehrer; Eilon Solan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the strategic and welfare properties of endogenous population partitioning (secession) within large-population anonymous games featuring strategic heterogeneity. We consider a continuum-player framework with a binary action space where players are categorized either as fol- lowers, who experience positive network externalities from conformity, or as contrarians, who seek distinctiveness via anti-conformism. We fully characterize the set of Nash equilibria and establish con- ditions under which costless secession yields structural Pareto improvements. We demonstrate that in any strategically mixed society, every mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium admits a Pareto-improving se- cession. With finitely many types, secession systematically mitigates coordination frictions, enhancing both individual payoffs and aggregate utility. Furthermore, we characterize social planner configura- tions optimizing weighted aggregate utility, establishing a formal mathematical isomorphism between optimal jurisdictional design and the theory of Bayesian persuasion solved via concavification. Finally, we derive the structural conditions governing migration stability when subgroups can unilaterally re- locate across distinct societies. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.06092 |
| By: | Domi, Arrita; Esslinger, Anna; Kasper, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We conduct a correspondence study with 590 landlords across Austria and Germany to examine ethnic and religious discrimination in apartment rental markets. Examining how discrimination varies by landlord type, location, and apartment price, we find that applicants with Muslim minority names are 18% less likely to receive a positive response than applicants with Christian majority names. This result is mainly driven by private landlords, who discriminate at a much higher rate. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of anti-discrimination legislation is constrained by the fact that individual landlords often retain final decision-making authority. Finally, we use granular district-level data for Vienna to investigate how the interaction of price and location influences discrimination. We find that discrimination is largely absent for expensive apartments in central districts, but substantially higher for below-average-priced apartments in these areas. This pattern suggests that discrimination against Muslim-named applicants is particularly strong for affordable apartments in desirable neighborhoods, which may help explain the finding that migrants across the EU pay disproportionately more on rent than natives. |
| Keywords: | Correspondence Study, Discrimination, Rental Market |
| JEL: | R30 R23 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:343080 |
| By: | Isabella Agnes; Jessica Liu; Fatimah Shalaan; Michelle Tran; Erin Troland; Douglas A. Webber |
| Abstract: | In the pandemic era, people moved from high-density, expensive areas to more affordable areas, putting upward pressure on local housing prices. We examine the geographic distribution of rent growth during this time and its effects on renters. We use administrative new lease data from RealPage and household-level data on rent and income from the American Community Survey. We analyze rents and incomes using Public Use Microdata Areas grouped in two ways: by prepandemic rent levels and by pre-pandemic rent-to-income ratios. Rents grew more in areas with lower pre-pandemic rents but not in areas with lower rent-to-income ratios, consistent with higher-income remote workers moving away from high rent areas to more affordable areas. Lower-income households experienced larger increases in rent relative to their income compared to the median renter. However, area-level rent-to-income ratios reflect both compositional changes in renter populations from mobility and changes in local rents. We highlight the need for future work to track affordability for the same households over time to fully understand pandemic era affordability trends. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability; pandemic housing markets; remote work migration; rental housing |
| Date: | 2026–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103752 |
| By: | Kerler, Philipp; Petrović, Valentina |
| Abstract: | Economic grievances are central in explaining the rise of right-wing illiberalism. Grievances allow challenger parties to rally around scapegoating outsider groups, such as ethnic minorities, immigrants, or foreigners. Some research argues that continuing decline allows illiberal parties to consolidate power by entrenching and polarizing around such cleavages. However, when illiberal parties are in power and economic decline continues, we argue that, absent cultural cleavages, retrospective economic voting prevails. Zooming in on the case of Trstenik, a Serbian town with a significant industrial legacy, strongly affected by deindustrialization, we leverage data from a novel survey and semi-structured interviews in a mixed-methods approach. We document clear patterns of existing grievances and blame on the government. However, positive, hopeful interpretations also exist among affected individuals. We show that support for the illiberal right-wing incumbent Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is positively associated with positive interpretations and negatively associated with grievances. Our study contributes an important qualifying account to current debates about the economic roots of right-wing illiberalism by highlighting the importance of scope conditions. |
| Date: | 2026–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6rkx7_v2 |
| By: | Ohto Kanninen; Hannu Karhunen; Sanni Kiviholma; Jeremias Nieminen |
| Abstract: | This is a pre-analysis plan for a quasi-experimental study evaluating the effects of Finland’s 2025 “Decree on National Labour-Shortage Sectors.” Typ-ically, recent labor immigrants can only work in the occupation for which their residence permit has been granted. The new shortage list allows immi-grant workers to switch their occupation to those listed in a nationwide list of shortage occupations. There are currently 9 occupations (4-digit level ISCO classification) on the list, and the list will be updated annually. We will study the effects on worker flows and average earnings in the affected occupations. We will use a difference-in-differences strategy, comparing occupations listed on the shortage list to those not on the list. We utilize information from re-gional guidelines about occupations which have already been classified as labor shortage occupations by the regional authorities. In this pre-analysis plan, we show the pre-trends for our main occupation-level analyses, and the estimate for 1 partially treated month, before the data for more post period months becomes available. |
| Keywords: | shortage list, immigration, pre-analysis plan |
| JEL: | J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:355 |