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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Federico, Giovanni; Tena Junguito, Antonio |
| Abstract: | Humans have been migrating since the out-of-Africa dispersal, roughly 300, 000 years ago, but the nineteenth century marked a major leap forward. For the first time in history, millions of people voluntarily migrated over long distances, from Europe to the Americas and Oceania, and from India and China to Southeast Asia. Yet we still know too little about these flows. The recent literature has made great progress in analyzing migrants' motivations and the microeconomic impact of their arrival, but the conventional wisdom still relies on the data compiled by Ferenczi and Willcox (1929) on gross migrations in the Atlantic economy. In this paper, we reconstruct new worldwide series for total (gross) and net migration, including inter-Asian and, partially, inter-European flows from 1800 to 1938. We estimate that more than 150 million people, about 10% of the world population, migrated, but half of them returned home. They accounted for between a sixth and a tenth of the workforce in the Americas and from a fifth to three-quarters in Australia and New Zealand. We also estimate the long-run effect of migrations on the distribution of the world population. |
| Keywords: | International migration; Global migration; Historical demography; Return migration; Labor mobility; Population dynamics; Economic history |
| JEL: | J61 N30 J11 F22 |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:50842 |
| By: | Katherine Eriksson; Peter Zhixian Lin; Gregory Niemesh |
| Abstract: | In the late nineteenth century, Americans feared that crowded immigrant neighborhoods were spreading disease through industrial cities. We study this claim using newly constructed town-level panel data from Massachusetts, 1860 to 1915, a setting uniquely suited to this exercise because its early vital registration system allows consistent measurement of mortality before national registration became widespread. Using a shift-share instrumental variable strategy based on historical settlement patterns, we estimate the effect of local exposure to immigration on mortality. The relevant question is not whether immigrant families themselves experienced higher mortality, but whether immigration altered the local disease environment more broadly. We find that increases in the foreign-born share significantly raised infant and child mortality, with the infant effect falling disproportionately on the post-neonatal period. Mechanical changes in the composition of births by parent nativity account for only a portion of the estimated effect, implying that the results are not driven primarily by higher mortality among immigrant births. Instead, the evidence is consistent with increased exposure to immigrants, communicable disease, and spillovers to children of native-born parents. These findings highlight immigration as one factor shaping the mortality transition in crowded high-mortality environments. |
| JEL: | I10 J13 N31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35743 |
| By: | Bossong, Raphael; Koch, Anne; Molla, Zefitret Abera |
| Abstract: | The EU Return Regulation creates a legal basis for transferring individuals subject to enforceable return decisions to third countries willing to accept them, even where they have no prior connection to that country. This makes so-called return hubs an increasingly likely prospect. The political appeal is clear: return hubs offer governments a visible way to demonstrate enforcement at a moment when the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum depends on credible implementation. But political salience should not be mistaken for operational effectiveness. European precedents and recent US experience suggest that transfers to remote third countries are likely to remain marginal, expensive and dependent on tenuous bargains. Return hubs may play a limited role for a small group of people who are otherwise difficult or impossible to remove, but they are not a general solution to low return rates. Their value should be judged by their ability to produce sustainable outcomes that cannot be achieved through the core return system. Without strict tests of additionality, proportionality and rights protection, they may make the wider return system harder, not easier, to fix. |
| Keywords: | EU Return Regulation, return hubs, EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, sustainable outcomes, enforcement, enforceable return decisions, EU return system, safe-third-country concept, UK-Rwanda scheme, Italy-Albania protocol, EU-Turkey Statement, US immigration law |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:344003 |
| By: | World Bank; Moraga, Jesús Fernández-Huertas; Minale, Luigi; Úbeda, Paloma; García, Lucia Gorjón; Lafuente, David Martínez de |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Spain’s 2022 immigration reform, which relaxed the eligibility requirements of the country’s continuous regularization system, thereby accelerating pathways to legal status without introducing a one-off amnesty. Combining administrative and survey data, we exploit the reform using complementary generalized difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables strategies to estimate its effects on migration flows, immigrant labor market outcomes, and local economic conditions. We find no evidence that the reform generated “magnet effects”: neither immigration inflows nor the stock of irregular migrants increased following its implementation. Instead, the reform substantially shortened the period spent in irregular status, reducing undocumented immigrants’ waiting time for legal residence by approximately one year. While earlier access to legal status led to some suggestive improvements in job quality and labor market trajectories, we find limited evidence of short-run employment gains. We argue that this pattern is consistent with negative selection among immigrants regularized under the post-reform regime. |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:212902 |
| By: | Fall, Fatou |
| Abstract: | Instability and ongoing conflict across the Sahel have led to conflict-induced migration and the displacement of populations across borders. As host countries face the challenges associated with refugee inflows, it becomes increasingly important to understand how these movements affect the host communities that are indirectly impacted by the conflict. By combining geocoded household panel data from Niger with administrative data on refugee settlements, I exploit spatial variation in exposure to refugee camps to assess how refugee exposure affects labor market outcomes, labor on household plots, and household consumption among households in areas hosting refugees. A higher exposure to refugees increases the likelihood that households diversify into secondary and non-farm activities, decreases family labor on plot, and improves the Food Consumption Score during the harvest season. Collectively, these results suggest that refugee inflows can generate positive local economic effects in rural settings, potentially through increased demand and humanitarian aid. |
| Abstract: | Die Instabilität und die anhaltenden Konflikte in der Sahelzone haben zu konfliktbedingter Migration und zur grenzüberschreitenden Vertreibung von Bevölkerungsgruppen geführt. Angesichts der Herausforderungen, denen sich die Aufnahmeländer im Zusammenhang mit dem Zustrom von Flüchtlingen gegenübersehen, wird es immer wichtiger zu verstehen, wie sich diese Migrationsbewegungen auf die Aufnahmegemeinschaften auswirken, die indirekt vom Konflikt betroffen sind. Durch die Kombination von geokodierten Haushaltspaneldaten aus dem Niger mit Verwaltungsdaten zu Flüchtlingssiedlungen nutze ich räumliche Unterschiede in der Nähe zu Flüchtlingslagern, um zu bewerten, wie sich die Nähe zu Flüchtlingen auf die Arbeitsmarktergebnisse, die Arbeit auf den Hausgrundstücken und den Konsum der Haushalte in Gebieten auswirkt, die Flüchtlinge aufnehmen. Eine größere Nähe zu Flüchtlingen erhöht die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Haushalte ihre Tätigkeit auf sekundäre und nichtlandwirtschaftliche Aktivitäten ausweiten, verringert die Familienarbeit auf dem Grundstück und verbessert den Nahrungsmittelverbrauchsindex während der Erntezeit. Insgesamt deuten diese Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass Flüchtlingszuströme positive lokale wirtschaftliche Effekte in ländlichen Gebieten hervorrufen können, möglicherweise durch eine gestiegene Nachfrage und humanitäre Hilfe. |
| Keywords: | Refugee impacts, Labor markets, Consumption, Rural households, Niger |
| JEL: | J43 O12 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:343539 |
| By: | Ohto Kanninen (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE); Hannu Karhunen (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE); Sanni Kiviholma (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE); Jeremias Nieminen (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE) |
| Abstract: | Several countries use immigration liberalization as a place-based policy tool, but evidence on its regional effects remains almost entirely descriptive. We examine the causal impact of removing labor market testing (LMT) regulations for labor immigrants in all occupations in the remote Finnish region of North Karelia. The reform allowed firms to hire non-EU foreign workers in all occupations without first advertising jobs to domestic applicants, resulting in a 14% rise in the stock of immigrant workers. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences methods, we estimate causal effects of the reform at the regional, municipal, firm establishment, and individual levels. The reform caused immigrant inflows to increase primarily in cities and in specific types of occupations, i.e., low-paying occupations and ISCO groups 5, 7, 8, and 9. Across the firm size distribution, the increases concentrate around the median and the top. We find little evidence that the policy had meaningful effects on other regional or municipal outcomes: immigration liberalization boosted labor supply without generating transformative medium-term regional effects. |
| Keywords: | immigration, labor supply, aging population, regional economy, labor market testing, synthetic control, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | R11 R58 J20 J38 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:365 |
| By: | Alessandro, Arrighetti; Simone, Baglioni; Andrea, Lasagni; Maria, Molinari |
| Abstract: | This paper examines migrants' remittances for entrepreneurial investments (REIs), focusing on the mechanisms that shape both entrepreneurial intention and its translation into actual business investment in countries of origin. While remittance behaviour has been widely studied, less attention has been devoted to migrants' entrepreneurial engagement and to the factors enabling the shift from intention to implementation. Using original survey data on 2, 122 first-generation migrants residing in Italy, the analysis adopts a staged framework distinguishing between non-intenders, intenders, and actual investors.Our findings indicate that entrepreneurial remittances appear more widespread than often assumed in the literature. Transnational engagement and return orientation significantly increase the likelihood of developing entrepreneurial intentions, highlighting the strategic and forward-looking nature of these projects. Most importantly, the transition from intention to implementation is primarily associated with migrants' entrepreneurial capabilities, opportunity perception, and perceived institutional constraints, rather than with demographic characteristics or general transnational orientation alone. Overall, the results support a staged interpretation of entrepreneurial remitting and underscore migrants' role as strategic transnational economic agents, with important implications for diaspora entrepreneurship policies. |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Entrepreneurial remittances, Transnational migrant entrepreneurship, Diaspora investments, Remittance intention–implementation process |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343300 |
| By: | Gabelle, Christopher C.; Gallego-Ayala, Jordi Jose; Beazley, Rodolfo; Macleod, Ewen; Aweko, Scovia |
| Abstract: | Refugee inclusion in national social protection systems in fragile and conflict affected settings is central to development responses to protracted displacement. Focusing on the Great Lakes Region (GLR) - Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda - this report assesses the capacity of existing social protection systems to support refugees beyond short term humanitarian assistance and contribute to resilience, self reliance, and social cohesion. Using an adapted adaptive social protection framework, the analysis examines five core system dimensions:(a) policies and legal rights, (b) institutional arrangements, (c) programs and delivery systems, (d) data and information systems, and (e) financing. The report draws on policy and legal analysis, administrative and expenditure data, and country level program evidence to map current practices and identify binding constraints to refugee inclusion. Findings show that while GLR countries have ratified international refugee frameworks and demonstrate growing policy openness to development oriented approaches, refugee assistance remains predominantly humanitarian, externally financed, and weakly integrated into national systems. Government led social safety net programs—including cash transfers, and labor intensive public works—have begun to include refugees in selected contexts, but coverage remains limited and uneven. Key constraints include fragmented institutional mandates, nascent social registries, limited interoperability with humanitarian data systems, and insufficient and unpredictable financing. The report concludes that progress ively integrating refugees into national social protection systems, on parity with host communities facing comparable vulnerabilities, offers a fiscally responsible and sustainable pathway to reduce aid dependence in protracted displacement contexts |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:209057 |
| By: | Eren Gürer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies optimal taxation when marginal contributions to an externality differ between urban and rural regions (non-atmospheric externalities), and individuals can migrate from rural to urban regions to earn higher wages. I show that when the government is constrained to set a uniform commodity tax across regions, the presence of externalities alters the structure of optimal redistribution. In particular, if, for example, urban residents impose higher marginal external damages, the optimal policy features more redistribution, relative to a benchmark without externalities. This additional redistribution reduces the attractiveness of higher urban wages and thus discourages migration into the urban region. These findings highlight a potential role for redistributive policy in internalizing externalities. |
| Keywords: | taxation, redistribution, regional externality, migration |
| JEL: | H21 H23 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12987 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | This note emphasizes the urgent need for development strategies beyond short-term aid to address protracted refugee crises in the Great Lakes Region (GLR). Due to major cuts to international aid, the paper advocates for integrating refugees into national social protection systems to enhance resilience, social inclusion, and socioeconomic development, reducing tensions with host communities. In fact, this note proposes a pragmatic pathway for progressive inclusion of refugees into national social protection systems, complementing not substituting humanitarian action in protracted settings. Transitioning to development programs requires legal and policy reforms, alignment with national systems, flexible financing, and regional cooperation. Challenges include increasing refugee vulnerability in regions with weak social protection systems and funding. The note proposes a layered financing model that couples domestic effort with predictable, multi-year concessional resources, disaster-risk financing and contingency mechanisms, and budget tagging to track refugee-related expenditure within government systems. Greater dialogue among governments, regional bodies, and development partners is essential to include refugees in national development plans and adapt social protection systems, considering regional approaches where appropriate. Within this context, regional cooperation should prioritize interoperability and mutual recognition (IDs, data standards, payment platforms) after foundational national reforms are in place. The note urges policies to embed social protection as a long-term solution, advocating new approaches to legal and policy reforms, innovative and flexible financing, regional refugee strategies, and data sharing. Central to this dialogue is the question of affordability. The recommended pathway reinforces government leadership, expands self-reliance and jobs linkages, safeguards data protection, and sequences reforms so that short-term humanitarian support all ow a smooth transition into government-led, fiscally responsible refugees inclusion. Burundi and the DRC exemplify successful refugee inclusion in national social protection systems. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:209058 |
| By: | Milena Almagro; Eric Chyn; Bryan A. Stuart |
| Abstract: | This paper studies one of the largest spatial redevelopment efforts in the United States: HOPE VI public housing demolitions. Focusing on Chicago, we estimate a neighborhood choice model combining administrative records tracking displaced public-housing residents with Census Bureau data capturing citywide sorting and prices. Demolitions generate large welfare losses driven by displacement costs, partially offset by housing vouchers. Demolitions also raise housing prices and reshape neighborhood composition, with gains concentrated among higher-income homeowners. Counterfactuals show that more generous vouchers and counseling programs mitigate but do not eliminate displaced residents' losses, while expanded redevelopment yields larger citywide gains through general-equilibrium effects. |
| JEL: | I31 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35736 |