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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Mdhlalose, Dickson |
| Abstract: | This paper critically evaluates the economic effects of unauthorised immigration on host economies through a cross-national comparative lens, drawing on empirical evidence published between 2020 and 2026. The analysis examines twelve major host economies across four continents: the European Union (with detailed evidence from Germany, Italy, Spain, France, and Poland), the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation, Türkiye, the Gulf Cooperation Council states, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, India, Brazil, the United States, and Canada. Five questions structure the inquiry: the global magnitude and distribution of unauthorised migrant populations; fiscal contributions and costs across diverse institutional contexts; labour market impacts on native workers; sectoral concentrations; and macroeconomic effects, including projected consequences of large-scale removal. Synthesis of authoritative sources indicates that approximately 5.8 million unauthorised migrants reside in EU-27 member states, 2.9 million in the Russian Federation, 2.2 million in South Africa, 2.7 million in Malaysia, 2.4 million in Thailand, and 3.6 million Syrians remain under Temporary Protection in Türkiye (International Organization for Migration [IOM], 2025; Eurostat, 2025; United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR], 2025). The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2025) estimates that the 2019-2024 immigration surge raised hostcountry potential gross domestic product (GDP) by an average of 1.4 percent across destination economies. The International Monetary Fund (Allen et al., 2024) projects that mass-removal scenarios in major host economies would reduce GDP by 1.8-6.2 percent over five years, with disproportionate impacts in agriculture, construction, and care sectors. Türkiye Statistical Institute (TÜİK, 2024) data indicate that Syrian-owned enterprises generated approximately US$2.3 billion in annual turnover by 2023. The paper argues that aggregate net economic benefits coexist with genuinely localised fiscal costs and distributional pressures on competing low-skill workers, and that policy responses should be calibrated accordingly. Recommendations include regularisation pathways, intensified employer-side labour-standards enforcement, targeted fiscal transfers to high-impact localities, and sectoral guest-worker reforms. |
| Keywords: | unauthorised immigration, irregular migration, fiscal impact, labour market, gross domestic product, mass deportation, regularisation, comparative migration policy |
| JEL: | J61 H20 F22 E62 J11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341746 |
| By: | Mariani, Rama Dasi; Mayda, Anna Maria; Rosati, Furio Camilllo; Sparacino, Antonio |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the causal impact of immigration to Italy on local public finances, at the municipality level (Comuni), between 2008 and 2015. We make use of administrative data to analyze public revenues and expenditures disaggregated by type. We find that, after the arrival of immigrants, total (current plus capital) revenues increase while total expenditures are not affected, giving rise to an increase in the surplus of the municipality (all outcome variables in the paper are defined in per capita terms). The arrival of immigrants increases current revenues and, in particular, property tax revenues, fees, and other revenues, as well as transfers from other levels of government. We show that there is an increase in property tax revenues from “secondary residences†, which are often rented out and are subject to higher taxation compared to owner-occupied units. On the expenditure side, immigrant inflows lead to greater current spending in total and on various items such as: garbage collection, local police, cultural programs, and public transportation. Capital expenditures decrease instead, when immigrants arrive. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 H41 H7 J61 J68 R5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19596 |
| By: | Hiller, Tatiana; Moya, Andrés; Rozo, Sandra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how forced displacement shapes child development beyond socioeconomic disadvantage. The paper uses original data on roughly 1, 600 Venezuelan refugees, Colombian internally displaced individuals, and nondisplaced children in Medellín, Colombia. The analysis adapts rank-rank regressions from the intergenerational mobility literature to a forced displacement setting, ranking each child’s developmental outcomes against household wealth. The paper documents substantial gaps that persist after holding wealth and parental background fixed. It also shows that the cause of displacement shapes the nature of the gaps. Venezuelan refugees displaced by acute material deprivation fall 19 and 13 rank points behind in cognitive and physical development, respectively. Colombian children displaced by armed conflict fall 12 rank points behind in depression and exhibit elevated trauma. Access to regularization and social services is associated with narrower gaps. |
| Date: | 2026–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11429 |
| By: | Arrighetti, Alessandro; Lasagni, Andrea; Tredicine, Luigi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the multidimensional nature of remittance allocation, moving beyond the traditional consumption-centred perspective. Whereas previous research has often analysed individual remittance uses separately, focused on transfer volumes or treated alternative purposes as mutually exclusive, this study investigates the relative importance migrants assign to a broad set of remittance destinations, revealing their underlying priorities and value hierarchies. We draw on original data from a face-to-face survey of 1, 359 international remitting migrants residing in Italy. Principal Component Analysis identifies three latent dimensions of remittance allocation: (1) essential household needs, (2) productive and entrepreneurial investment, and (3) symbolic and community-oriented purposes. Multivariate regression models show that these remittance logics are shaped by different determinants. Income, return intentions and transnational engagement are associated with investment-oriented remittances; education, gender and migrants’ dual embeddedness shape symbolic remitting; household vulnerability and migrant income primarily explain consumption-oriented transfers. The findings show that remittances reflect plural and context-sensitive rationales rooted in migrants’ resources, obligations and transnational affiliations. By unpacking the relative prioritization of remittance uses, the paper advances a multidimensional understanding of migrant agency and highlights the productive, social and protective functions of remitting practices. |
| Keywords: | Migrant remittances, Remittance allocation, Productive remittances, Symbolic and community-oriented remittances, Transnational engagement, Dual embeddedness |
| JEL: | F24 F22 O15 D64 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342103 |
| By: | Rozo, Sandra |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the medium-run effects, 4.5 years after launch, of a regularization program that granted temporary legal status, freedom of movement, work authorization, and access to social programs to nearly half a million Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia with no criminal record. Because the program was announced unexpectedly and applied retroactively to migrants who had registered in a census before a sharp eligibility cutoff, the paper identifies its effects using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and a unique two-wave panel survey. The largest medium-run gains were in social capital. At the cutoff, eligible migrants scored 0.95 standard deviation higher than ineligible peers on a social integration index capturing belonging, friendships with Colombians, community participation, and attachment to Colombia, and 0.97 standard deviation higher on a prosocial behavior index measuring generalized trust and trust toward both Colombians and Venezuelans. Neither effect is detectable in the short run, and both emerge only over time. Economic gains, by contrast, arose immediately and largely persisted. Eligible migrants earned 69 percent higher monthly labor income, scored 2.6 standard deviations higher on a service access index, and made substantial investments in housing, with housing quality increasing from 0.60 to 1.27 standard deviations between survey waves. The implied fiscal savings to Colombia also increased over time, rising from roughly 40 to 70 percent of the fiscal cost associated with irregular households as beneficiaries moved toward fiscal balance. These findings suggest that the largest social capital and fiscal returns to regularization accrued gradually through sustained legal inclusion and repeated positive interactions with institutions and host communities rather than through the act of legalization itself. |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11427 |
| By: | Hashimoto, Yuki (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry); Kambayashi, Ryo (Musashi University); Manjome, Masao (School of Humanities and Culture, Tokai University); Moriguchi, Chiaki (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Nakagawa, Mariko (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Saeki, Yasutaka (Shizuoka University of Art and Culture) |
| Abstract: | Using newly available linked employer-employee data, we investigate foreign-native wage differentials in Japan. Our contribution is twofold: first, we benchmark Japan against Western countries by following Hermansen et al. (2025)’s method; second, we exploit Japan’s tightly structured visa regime to analyze how immigration policy shapes the economic integration of foreign workers. We find that the raw foreign-native wage gap of 28% shrinks to 16% after controlling for employee attributes, and disappears entirely when accounting for workplace characteristics. Compared to the West, across-firm sorting and within-firm task segregation-rather than occupational segregation-plays a greater role in Japan. Moreover, while patterns of wage convergence vary starkly by visa category, foreign wage disadvantage becomes negligible in all visa categories once all factors are controlled. Our results reveal highly segmented labor market in Japan where employee and workplace attributes differ sharply not only between native and foreign workers, but also among foreign workers across visa categories. We argue that Japan’s demand-driven visa regime facilitates near complete wage convergence albeit at the cost of substantial labor market segmentation. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, immigration policy, economic integration |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18762 |
| By: | Shih-Keng Yen; Jingqiu Ren; Nereyda Y. Ortiz Osejo de Lemus; Ernesto F. L. Amaral |
| Abstract: | This study draws on microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) spanning 2005 to 2023. Person-level and household-level data were obtained from the restricted-use ACS files distributed in fixed-width text format, which were converted to structured datasets and harmonized across survey years to ensure consistency in variable definitions, coding schemes, and geographic identifiers. The harmonized dataset was used to examine patterns of internal migration within the United States, first among the general working-age population and then among healthcare workers as a distinct subgroup. All data processing and statistical analyses were conducted in SAS and Stata. The code has been cleared for release (CBDRB-FY26-P1994-R13196) and will be made available in the Integrated Research Environment Code Library. |
| Keywords: | ACS |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-19 |
| By: | Zhang, Ruohao; Li, Huan; Wen, Kaiyi; Khanna, Neha |
| Abstract: | Why do individuals raised in environmentally disadvantaged areas often remain in similar conditions as adults? We propose a behavioral mechanism of environmental anchoring, where past lived experiences serve as a reference point for future residential choices. We develop a discrete choice model of residential sorting that incorporates reference-dependent preferences, positing that individuals discount the utility of amenities, such as air quality or climate, when they diverge substantially from their formative baseline. This framework oers a micro-foundation for the intergenerational persistence of environmental exposure: individuals from low-amenity origins may undervalue improvements in environmental quality, leading them to self-sort into similarly disadvantaged locations. We test this theory empirically using an augmented gravity model of U.S. county-to-county migration ows from 2013 to 2017. By constructing a measure of environmental distance between origin and destination, we isolate the role of environmental anchoring in migration decisions. We nd robust evidence that migration ows are signicantly larger between counties with similar environmental and socioeconomic proles, even after controlling for physical distance and economic opportunities. These ndings suggest that spatial inequality is reinforced not only by structural constraints but by internalized preferences, implying that policies aiming to promote intergenerational mobility must account for the behavioral stickiness of past environmental exposure. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404509 |
| By: | Adedokun, Emmanuel Kolade |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the structural determinants of regional youth out-migration and brain drain within South Korea, focusing on Gangwon Province as a critical case study. Utilizing regional empirical data spanning the 2015–2026 period, we construct a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression models to isolate the impacts of regional employment opportunities, internal migration flows, healthcare quality of life indicators, and capital investment vectors on demographic retention. Grounded in Human Capital Theory (HCT), the empirical findings reveal that localized employment availability acts as a primary positive driver of youth retention, yielding a statistically significant coefficient of 1.142 (p = 0.004\). Conversely, acute healthcare infrastructure deficits and systemic out-migration vectors exert powerful inverse pressures that accelerate regional demographic contraction. Predictive analysis for the 2026–2030 horizon indicates that marginal nominal wage increases face diminishing returns due to the structural agglomeration gravity of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). The study concludes that mitigating regional human capital leakage requires provincial policies to pivot away from generalized physical infrastructure allocations toward targeted talent placement, localized industry-academic integration via the Regional Innovation System & Education (RISE) framework, and robust soft infrastructure enhancements. |
| Date: | 2026–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aecjr_v1 |
| By: | Holzman, Brian; Wang, Shuyu |
| Abstract: | As students from immigrant families comprise a growing share of the U.S. student population, understanding their access to postsecondary education is increasingly critical. Drawing on nationally representative survey data, this study investigates generational differences in high school students’ college knowledge, including their ability to estimate college costs and expected earnings, their accuracy in doing so, and their awareness of financial aid. The findings show that students across immigrant generations substantially overestimate college costs, especially for public institutions. Compared with third- and higher-generation students, first- and second-generation students show some initial disadvantages in tuition knowledge, but these differences are largely reduced after accounting for background characteristics. Subgroup analyses suggest that first-generation gaps in public four-year tuition accuracy are most evident among relatively advantaged and college-oriented students. In contrast, first-generation students are less likely than third- and higher-generation students to report not knowing what the Free Application for Federal Student Aid is after controls are added. This study contributes to the literature on immigrant-generation differences and postsecondary choice by showing that college financial knowledge is multidimensional: students from immigrant families may be less calibrated in their understanding of college costs while also demonstrating awareness of specific financial aid tools. |
| Date: | 2026–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mf9ux_v1 |
| By: | Arrighetti, Alessandro; Semenza, Renata |
| Abstract: | While a large literature has examined whether migrants remit, how much they send and how remittances are used, far less attention has been devoted to who actually decides about remittance transfers. Yet remittance decisions are not merely financial choices: they reflect the distribution of authority, responsibility and agency within transnational family systems. This paper investigates gendered patterns of decision-making autonomy over remittances using original survey data collected among first-generation migrants residing in Italy. Decision-making power is conceptualized through three regimes (dependence, negotiated decision-making and full autonomy) and analysed using ordered and multinomial logit models. The findings reveal significant gender differences in decision-making outcomes. Women are more frequently involved in negotiated arrangements, whereas men are more likely to report full autonomy. Yet these differences do not stem from gender-specific determinants of autonomy. The same relational factors (parenthood, marriage, transnational engagement and local embeddedness) operate similarly across genders. Rather, women are more frequently exposed to family and social configurations associated with negotiated decision-making, while men are more often positioned in contexts favouring individualized autonomy. The paper contributes to the debates on gender, migration and development by showing that economic agency within transnational households cannot be understood solely through individual resources or preferences. More broadly, remittances emerge as arenas through which authority, responsibility and agency are negotiated across borders. |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Gender, Decision-making autonomy, Intra-household bargaining, Transnational families, Relational autonomy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342000 |