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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Costas Arkolakis (Yale University and NBER); Sun Kyoung Lee (University of Michigan); Michael Peters (Yale University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Between 1880 and 1920, more than 20 million immigrants settled in the United States. We study how this migration wave affected innovation and growth. Using a newly constructed dataset linking individual census records to historical immigration records and the universe of US patents, we highlight a new channel through which immigrants contributed to growth: they disproportionately settled in urban innovation hubs. To quantify the aggregate and regional effects of this mass migration episode, we develop a new spatial growth model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in innovation and sort endogenously across space. We find that international arrivals after 1880 raised US income per capita by 8.2% by 1940. Removing the subsequent immigration restrictions of the 1920s would have raised income per capita by a further 1.7% by 2000. Immigrants' skill composition and their concentration in urban hubs are key drivers of these effects. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2538 |
| By: | Maria Marino (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, UB, Spain.); Xavier Ramos (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain; IZA and EQUALITAS.); Riccardo Turati (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain; IZA and RFBerlin.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational social mobility, migration aspirations, and participation in political demonstrations. Using individual-level data from the Latinobarómetro between 2002 and 2023, we show that individuals experiencing negative intergenerational educational mobility are more likely to express a desire to migrate and to participate into peaceful protests, whereas those with positive mobility exhibit the opposite pattern. Our analysis further suggests that the decision to migrate and to protest may be shaped by a common underlying decision process. Finally, we find that confidence in political institutions and positive economic expectations substantially mitigate expressions of social discontent in the form of migration aspirations and protest participation. Overall, the results indicate that unequal opportunities across generations are an important determinant of both migration intentions and political engagement. |
| Keywords: | Social Mobility, Protest, Migration. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2605 |
| By: | Youjin Choi; Li Xu |
| Abstract: | This study explores the alignment between fields of study and occupations among international students who have become permanent residents in Canada. Using data from the 2021 Census of Population, the study examines the fields of study and occupations of immigrants with a postsecondary education who held study permits before becoming permanent residents from 2011 to 2021. It compares them with other immigrants who became permanent residents during the same period and Canadian-born postsecondary graduates. The focus is on the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics and computer science (STEM); health care; and business and administration. Among immigrants who were formerly international students in Canada, the degree of alignment between field of study and employment varied by field and level of study. It was lowest among those who studied STEM or business and administration in postsecondary programs below the bachelor’s level and highest among those with a bachelor’s degree from health care-related programs. The overall alignment rates between field of study and occupation among former international students were higher than those among immigrants who were not former international students. The role of Canadian education in increasing the degree of alignment between field of study and employment among immigrants was prominent when former international students attained their highest level of education in Canada. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants, international students, postsecondary education, fields of study, occupations, alignment of education and occupation |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500700001e |
| By: | Feng Hou; Yan Tan; Garnett Picot; Li Xu |
| Abstract: | Citizenship acquisition marks a pivotal milestone in immigrant integration, influencing social cohesion and political participation. While aggregate naturalization rates provide macro-level insights, disparities by source country reveal diverse integration pathways. Through comparative analysis of Australia and Canada—nations with comparable immigration scales and broadly similar immigration approaches, yet notable differences in naturalization frameworks—this study investigates how source-country characteristics affect naturalization patterns. The findings illuminate the complex transition from immigrant to citizen, offering policy-relevant insights into differential integration experiences. Variation in naturalization rates by source country reveals how citizenship acquisition is shaped by both destination-country policies and source-country characteristics (Alarian, 2017). Immigrants from nations with limited political rights, lower economic development or greater cultural distance from the destination society typically demonstrate higher naturalization rates, motivated by the security and mobility that citizenship provides. Conversely, those from high-income, politically stable countries often exhibit lower naturalization urgency (Vink et al., 2013). |
| Keywords: | source country, citizenship trends, recent immigrants |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202501100001e |
| By: | Adema, Joop |
| Abstract: | Agersnap, Jensen and Kleven (2020) study the effect of changes in welfare benefit levels on immigration in Denmark, reporting a large migration elasticity of 1.3. However, their approach reports an illdefined net migration elasticity, conflates migration with migrant residents turning 30, and is sensitive to origin-country shocks. All of these exaggerate the size of the welfare magnet effect. Using an alternative approach that addresses these concerns, I find substantially lower migration elasticities: at most 0.28 for arrivals and 0.14 for stocks. Moreover, I find that lower benefits do not increase the average skill level of migrants. |
| JEL: | F22 H53 I38 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:302 |
| By: | Liu, Kai; Liu, Xiangqing; Zhang, Anwen; Deng, Zhongliang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the cultural component of son preference through rural-to-urban migration in China, using a large representative dataset covering migrants from all origins to all destinations. Employing a generalized Roy model with a control function approach, we show that conventional epidemiological-approach estimates overstate cultural persistence. Correcting for endogenous destination selection reduces the estimated effect of origin-specific son preference on migrants' fertility behavior by 57-71%. Differences among migrants in the same destination therefore reflect both cultural influences and non-random sorting. We further find that cultural persistence weakens in higher-income destinations but strengthens in areas with greater migrant concentration. |
| Keywords: | Son preference, cultural persistence, endogenous migration, destination selection, fertility behavior, sex ratios, rural-to-urban migration, China |
| JEL: | J13 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1779 |
| By: | Demir, Cansu; Mayda, Anna Maria; Maystadt, Jean-Francois |
| Abstract: | The political impact of refugees is largely unknown in low-income countries, although these destinations host the majority of forcibly displaced people, and more specifically refugees. We exploit yearly variation in the number of refugees in refugee camps and election data at the sub-national level in 16 African countries in 2000-2016. The estimates show that the arrival of refugees increases local support to the national incumbent and reduces political competition, but only when hosting countries implement inclusive policies towards refugees. Inclusive policies play a crucial role also when we estimate the impact of refugees on: individual-level satisfaction with the government and with provision of local public goods (education, health care and infrastructure), in the Afrobarometer; and local economic activity, using night light data. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; Africa |
| JEL: | O15 I15 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21437 |
| By: | Haozhen Zhang; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | Understanding the housing use of immigrants and non-permanent residents (NPRs) is important for developing effective housing policies and urban planning strategies. Using 2021 Census data, this study estimates housing unit occupancy rates—defined as the number of dwellings per 1, 000 people—for immigrants and NPRs. These rates reflect housing use constrained by factors such as financial resources, living preferences and housing supply availability. The analysis of the 2021 Census data shows that immigrants typically exhibit higher housing occupancy in the ownership and rental markets compared with Canadian-born individuals. On average, immigrants occupy 310 owned units and 151 rental units per 1, 000 people, totalling 461 housing units, compared with 397 housing units for Canadian-born individuals. NPRs, meanwhile, occupy 41 owned units and 316 rental units per 1, 000 people, for a total of 357 housing units. As immigrants spend more time in Canada, their reliance on the rental market decreases and homeownership increases. In their initial years after admission, immigrants have lower housing occupancy rates than Canadian-born individuals. Over time, however, their housing occupancy rises significantly, driven by a substantial growth in homeownership—underscoring the lasting impact of immigration on the ownership market. The findings also suggest that an increase in immigration would particularly heighten demand for single-detached homes in the ownership market and for rental apartments, while a rise in NPRs would primarily boost demand for rental apartments. Additionally, immigrants and NPRs are both more likely to own homes in smaller municipalities than in larger municipalities, emphasizing varying impacts of immigrants and NPRs across different municipal contexts. |
| Keywords: | immigration, non-permanent residents, housing, homeownership |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500500003e |
| By: | Alejandro Arciniegas Herrera (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of food insecurity on Venezuelan emigration to Colombia using municipal-level panel data for 2010–2023. Exploiting exogenous variation in crop losses via an instrument that interacts drought intensity with 2007 agricultural production, I show that a one percentage-point increase in food insecurity raises the emigration rate by 4.2 percent on average. A 10 percent drop in crop yields increases food insecurity by 0.56 percentage points, implying a 2.4 percent rise in the emigration rate. Reduced-form evidence indicates that drought shocks mattered only after the 2014 food import collapse, showing the role of local agricultural fragility in the broader political crisis. Responses are strongest in municipalities with low crop diversity, a larger oil sector, intermediate levels of development, and a higher share of rural land. These findings provide the first causal evidence that hunger operates as a major push factor in contemporary emigration from developing countries and high-light that climate adaptation and food security policies are critical to reducing forced migration |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Climate Shocks; Drought; Food Insecurity; International Migration; Venezuela |
| JEL: | F22 Q18 Q54 O13 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:26007 |
| By: | Feng Hou; Garnett Picot; Li Xu |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have documented a significant decline in the citizenship rate among recent immigrants to Canada. Among immigrants (permanent residents) admitted to Canada five to nine years earlier, the citizenship rate declined from 75.4% in 1996 to 45.7% in 2021 (Hou & Picot, 2019; 2024). The effects of COVID-19 may partially explain the more recent decline, but the reasons for the longer-term fall remain unclear. Possible explanations include the increased fluidity of international migration, rapid economic growth in some source countries and changes in government policies on citizenship (Hou & Picot, 2021). Cross-country comparisons can help clarify the relative importance of these factors. If similar trends are observed in other major immigrant-receiving Western countries, this would suggest that the underlying causes are not unique to Canada. The United States would be a useful comparison country for Canada, as both are major immigrant-receiving nations with close geographic and economic ties. However, differences in available data complicate comparisons of immigrant citizenship rates. This article examines key data sources for studying immigrant citizenship in both countries and highlights the challenges in comparing citizenship rates and trends. |
| Keywords: | immigrant, citizenship, comparability |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500600001e |
| By: | Christoph Schimmele; Allison Leanage; Maciej Karpinski; Jing Shen; Rubab Arim |
| Abstract: | Using the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, this study examined differences in educational attainment and employment between immigrants with and without disabilities. Immigrant men with and without disabilities had similar levels of educational attainment, while immigrant women with disabilities had lower levels of educational attainment than immigrant women without disabilities. Immigrant men and women with disabilities had lower levels of employment than their counterparts without disabilities. Much of the gap in employment between immigrants with and without disabilities was found at lower levels of education. Among those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, there was a smaller gap in employment between immigrant men with and without disabilities, and no difference in employment between immigrant women with and without disabilities. These patterns in employment were mostly similar to those between Canadian-born persons with and without disabilities. |
| Keywords: | educational, employment, immigrants with disabilities |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202501200001e |
| By: | Garnett Picot; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | Previous research indicates that immigrants who obtain citizenship in the receiving country gain various benefits, including enhanced legal status, expanded rights, increased political and civic engagement, and a stronger sense of collective identity and belonging. However, empirical studies remain inconclusive on whether acquiring citizenship improves immigrants’ labour market outcomes. This paper asks two questions. First, is Canadian citizenship correlated with better economic outcomes among immigrants in Canada? Second, if so, does citizenship acquisition lead to an improvement in labour market outcomes? The answer to the first question is yes. Immigrants who became citizens had higher earnings, had higher employment levels and were more likely to be employed in the public sector than their counterparts who did not become citizens. The answer to the second question is no. Using longitudinal data and a fixed-effects regression model, the study finds little evidence that the act of citizenship acquisition directly resulted in the observed positive correlation between citizenship and economic outcomes. Immigrants who became citizens economically outperformed those who did not, mostly because immigrants who chose to become citizens possessed other characteristics (such as unmeasured skills and motivations) that resulted in their better economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, citizenship, economic |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500600003e |
| By: | Hanqing Qiu; Feng Hou; Haozhen Zhang; Jianwei Zhong |
| Abstract: | This article uses data from the Integrated Permanent and Non-permanent Resident File and the 2021 Census of Population to examine the alignment between occupational intentions and employment outcomes among immigrants who intended to work as nurses. The results show that among economic principal applicants who were admitted from 2010 to 2020 aged 18 to 54 and who intended to work as nurses, 63% found jobs in nursing occupations in 2021, while 25% worked in either lower-skilled health occupations or lower-skilled non-health occupations or were not employed. Pre-admission Canadian work experience was a strong predictor of alignment between intended and actual employment in nursing. The article also finds that among immigrants who worked as nurses in 2021, 35% had intended to work as nurses at the time of admission. The remaining 65% of immigrant nurses were not initially selected for nursing but later entered the profession after becoming permanent residents in Canada. These results highlight the dynamic nature of immigrants’ career pathways. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant nurses, alignment between intentions, employment outcomes |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:20250090003e |
| By: | Feng Hou; Milly Yang; Yao Lu |
| Abstract: | The flow of migrants across international borders is a critical factor shaping national economies, innovation capacity and societal development in the 21st century. For neighbouring countries with deeply integrated economies like Canada and the United States, the movement of people, particularly skilled workers, holds profound significance. Concerns regarding a Canadian “brain drain”—the emigration of highly educated and skilled individuals primarily to the United States—have been a recurring theme in Canadian public and policy discourse. The economic pull of the larger U.S. market, offering broader opportunities and often higher compensation in certain fields, continues to challenge Canada’s ability to retain talent. |
| Keywords: | recent, trends, immigration |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500700006e |
| By: | Manassé Drabo; Horatio M. Morgan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of cultural and industrial diversity on innovation across 152 Canadian urban areas from 2001 to 2021. By applying a knowledge spillover lens, it associates such diversity with enhanced knowledge variety and diffusion. Using inventor counts and Shannon indices as proxies for innovation and diversity, the authors show that cultural and industrial diversity fosters innovation. An increase of one standard deviation in cultural diversity raises innovation by 13.4% to 81.7%, while the same increase in industrial diversity raises it by 6.6% to 36.6%. Their interaction synergistically yields an additional 2.2% to 12.4% increase in innovation. Meanwhile, recent immigration diversity amplifies these effects, validating the knowledge mechanisms and highlighting significant theoretical and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity, immigration, industrial structure, innovation, knowledge spillovers |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:20250110003e |
| By: | Wang, Huan; Baranov, Victoria; Dickerson, Sarah; Barofsky, Jeremy |
| Abstract: | Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS has expanded rapidly across low-income countries since 2000, generating large gains in life expectancy. Exploiting spatial and temporal variation in ART availability, this paper examines the health and economic consequences of ART introduction across a comprehensive set of outcomes in rural Malawi, a low-income setting with high HIV prevalence. We find that ART substantially reduces prime-age mortality. Although these health gains raise individual prime-age labor supply, total household labor supply and household earnings are unchanged. We show that this divergence reflects the outward migration of prime-age household members, particularly men. Consistent with this mechanism, households receive sizable increases in remittances. Our findings identify migration as an important, but previously overlooked channel through which health shapes household economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Malawi |
| JEL: | I15 I18 I21 O15 O18 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21553 |