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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Alessandro Cigno; Alessandro Gioffré; Annalisa Luporini |
| Abstract: | We derive the immigration policy that maximizes the residents' expected welfare, taking into account the cost of keeping immigrants out, and the expected benefits of letting immigrants in, under different hypotheses concerning the risk that some of the immigrants' children will become radicalized. We find that a certain amount of immigration is generally optimal. If education directly or indirectly reduces the risk of radicalization, the optimal policy may include also an educational subsidy for the immigrants' children. |
| Keywords: | migration, education, radicalization, integration. |
| JEL: | F22 I24 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12682 |
| By: | Karadja, Mounir (Uppsala University); Khan, Akib (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)); Martén, Linna (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study how expatriates cope when conflict breaks out in their homeland. Using Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment, we identify causal effects using a matched difference-in-differences design, comparing incumbent Ukrainian migrants in Sweden to matched migrants from other countries. We show that Ukrainian expatriates experience immediate and persistent mental health deterioration—a 30 percent increase in psychiatric prescription use that remains elevated three years later—while simultaneously increasing employment and earnings. A simple framework rationalizes this pattern through two channels operating in opposite directions: concern for family safety worsens mental health and raises the disutility of work, while heightened financial responsibilities raise the return to earning income. Consistent with reduced reservation wages, Ukrainians take on secondary jobs, exit unemployment faster into lower-quality jobs, and earn less than comparable coworkers. Earnings effects concentrate among migrants from more war-exposed regions, while mental health effects attenuate in Swedish municipalities with more Ukrainian refugee arrivals. Results replicate in European and US survey data. As global migration and armed conflict both reach historic highs, the findings show that the welfare costs of war extend across borders, shaping the well-being and economic behavior of expatriates worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Armed conflict; Mental health; Labor supply; Earnings; Refugees; Diaspora populations; Natural experiments |
| JEL: | D74 F22 I12 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_002 |
| By: | Lara, Jaime; Suárez Martínez, Juan Francisco |
| Abstract: | This study analyzed how the international migration of household heads affects the labor supply of household members who remain in their communities of origin. We used data from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment in Mexico, covering the first quarter of 2021 through the last quarter of 2024. We estimated the impact by observing whether the household experienced a migration event involving the household head or their partner in the four quarters following the first interview and by using an empirical strategy that leverages the structure of this short-term panel. The results indicate that a migration event increases hours worked, especially in the first quarters after the event. Moreover, migration has heterogeneous effects depending on the gender of migrants and household members who remain, age group, and household position. A migration event tends to increase the household's labor supply, particularly for men across all age groups. The exception is when the migrant is the man's spouse; in that case, his labor supply decreases. Meanwhile, the increase in women's labor force participation is concentrated among migrant partners. The results indicate a short-term increase, likely due to liquidity constraints that require an increase in labor supply to compensate for lost income. Regarding female migration, such an increase may also require a decrease in the partner's labor supply to replace work within the home. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply, child labor, Mexico. |
| JEL: | F22 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128952 |
| By: | Nieuwenhuis, Aukje; Postepska, Agnieszka; Alessie, Rob; Voloshyna, Anastasiia |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 triggered one of the largest refugee movements in Europe since World War II, with millions of Ukrainians seeking safety abroad. Czechia, Germany, and Poland emerged as primary destinations. Activation of the EU's Temporary Protection Directive granted Ukrainian refugees immediate access to host-country labor markets, creating substantial labor supply shocks. This study examines the impact of the inflow of Ukrainian refugees into the workforce in these three countries using quarterly individual-level microdata from the European Union Labor Force Survey (EU-LFS) between 2017 and 2023. Leveraging regional variation in exposure to Ukrainian employees, we estimate the effects of refugee employment on local employment, unemployment, inactivity, and working hours. We find no population-wide displacement effects, consistent with prior evidence for Czechia. However, subgroup analyses reveal heterogeneous impacts across countries. In Czechia, low-educated men benefited from increased labor demand, whereas in Poland, low-educated men experienced adverse effects. In Germany, secondary-educated men faced greater competitive pressure, reflected in an acceleration of early retirement. These differences likely stem from cross-country variation in refugee skill composition and bureaucratic barriers to labor market entry. Our findings highlight how institutional context shapes refugee integration and mediates the effects of large labor supply shocks on vulnerable segments of the local workforce. |
| Keywords: | Ukrainian refugees, Immigrants, Local labor market, Labor supply |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1769 |
| By: | Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Tom Theile (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Subnational migration is often more intensive than international migration. These systems of migration are interrelated; however, the literature studies internal and international migration separately. The main reason is that integrated data on both of these migration systems are rare. In the case of scholarly migration, in addition to differences by migration type, trends substantially differ by gender and field of science. We prepare and publicly share the second version of the Scholarly Migration Database (SMD 2.0) including global bilateral flows and rates of subnational and international migration of scholars disaggregated by gender and field of science. We leverage large-scale bibliometric data from Scopus and OpenAlex to construct an integrated history of internal and international movements of scholars at the individual level. We then aggregate these trends to the province level (GeoNames admin 1 regions). Based on our adversarial collaboration and empirical validations using independent and reproducible scientific pipelines, we develop processing steps and offer best practices for the measurement and identification of migration events. We share aggregated yearly estimates of migration rates and of bilateral flows for 2, 067 unique subnational regions worldwide in Scopus and 2, 080 in OpenAlex for the period 1998-2024. We describe the data structure and provide usage notes. Given the breadth of research using the first version of our database, we expect that the publicly shared second version will further enable researchers to study the causes and the consequences of gender and field differences in the migration of scholars. |
| Keywords: | Global, World, computational social science, gender, internal migration, international migration |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-029 |
| By: | Schiff, Maurice |
| Abstract: | An early view, associated with the Bhagwati tax, is that skilled migration - i.e., a brain drain - has a negative impact on migrants' source countries. A more recent view is that a brain drain generates a brain gain which can have a positive impact on source countries. This view is based on a model where education generates a positive externality. I examine whether, despite opposite results, the two approaches are compatible. Some main findings are: i) Under an open economy and an optimal education subsidy (given education's positive externality), with equal government weights for emigrants and residents, education is higher than under closed economy, with ambiguous impact on welfare; ii) Under a smaller government weight for emigrants than for residents, education and welfare are lower than under equal weights; iii) The Bhagwati tax benefit is related to political economy considerations, i.e., an optimal reduction in the education subsidy - say after the host country's opening to migration - might be hard to achieve (as the education bureaucracy and parents' and teachers' organizations are likely to oppose it), so the excessively high subsidy could be compensated by a higher tax. Thus, the two instruments are policy complements; and iv) Proposals for collecting the Bhagwati tax are presented. |
| Keywords: | Brain drain, brain gain, Bhagwati tax, education subsidy, welfare |
| JEL: | F20 F22 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1768 |
| By: | Gavresi, Despina; Irmen, Andreas; Litina, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies population aging as an important driver of populism using multilevel regression analysis on individuals from European countries between 2002 and 2019. Unlike individual aging, we focus on population- level demographic change measured by the old-age dependency ratio (OADR), i.e., the ratio of people aged 65 and over to those of working age. which captures the structural balance between older and economically active populations. Using data from nine rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine the relationship between population aging and populist attitudes, captured through voting for populist parties, political trust, and immigration attitudes. Our findings suggest that population aging is associated with declining electoral turnout, higher support for populist parties, lower trust in political institutions, and increased anti-immigrant sentiment. These effects appear across both younger and older voters, indicating that aging societies influence political preferences beyond individual aging. They may operate through mechanisms such as economic insecurity, cultural backlash, or shifts in collective societal priorities. |
| Keywords: | Aging, Populism, Trust, Immigrant Attitudes |
| JEL: | D72 J10 P00 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1761 |
| By: | Páscoa, Jorge (Nova SBE); Peralta, Susana (Nova SBE); Pereira dos Santos, João (ISEG) |
| Abstract: | Touristification has emerged as a transformative yet contentious force in urban economies, creating both economic opportunities and displacement pressures. We estimate the impact of a rapid touristification boom on residential mobility, household income levels, and income composition in two European cities heavily exposed to tourism pressure. Using administrative tax records from 2016-2019 and an instrumental variable strategy based on proximity to tourist amenities, we show that short-term rental expansion significantly increased out-migration rates, particularly among lower-income residents and tenants. While incumbent homeowners who remain in highly touristified areas experience income gains, movers exhibit weaker labour-market outcomes. Our findings highlight the highly unequal incidence of tourism-driven housing shocks. |
| Keywords: | short-term rental, household income, displacement, inequality |
| JEL: | R31 R23 Z38 D63 C36 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18666 |
| By: | Fatima, Freeha (World Bank); Ozen, Efsan (World Bank); Raju, Dhushyanth (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether eligibility for a large-scale humanitarian cash transfer program affects employment outcomes among displaced populations. Exploiting deterministic demographic thresholds governing eligibility for the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Türkiye, a nationwide unconditional cash transfer program established primarily to support Syrian refugees, we implement a local-randomization regression discontinuity design to estimate causal effects at the program’s administrative eligibility frontier. We find no statistically significant discontinuities in employment probabilities for either women or men across multiple employment outcomes, including overall employment, wage employment, full-time employment, and nonfarm employment. Estimated effects are small, economically modest, and stable across specifications. Overall, the findings provide little evidence that sustained unconditional cash transfers under the ESSN generated economically meaningful labor supply disincentives at the eligibility margin. |
| Keywords: | unconditional cash transfers, refugees, labor supply, social assistance, regression discontinuity, rule-based eligibility |
| JEL: | C21 F22 H53 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18670 |