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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Pia M. Orrenius; Madeline Zavodny |
| Abstract: | In an attempt to reduce unauthorized entries into the United States, the Biden administration created humanitarian parole programs for migrants from several countries experiencing crises. Migrants with a U.S. sponsor could apply from abroad and, if approved, were allowed to enter the country and remain for up to two years. Under the CHNV program, over 530, 000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela were paroled into the U.S. between late 2022 and mid-2024. Synthetic difference-in-differences models indicate a sustained drop in unauthorized attempted crossings between ports of entry for Cuba and Nicaragua, a short-lived drop for Venezuela and no clear pattern for Haiti after the parole processes began. The difference may be due to some migrants from Haiti and Venezuela—but not Cuba and Nicaragua—being eligible for another U.S. humanitarian protection program, giving them more motivation to attempt entry. Meanwhile, the number of inadmissible migrants who presented themselves at ports of entry along the border did not fall for any of the countries included in the CHNV parole program. Overall, the program appears to have reduced attempts to enter the United States by Nicaraguans, had no impact among Cubans and Venezuelans and increased the number of Haitian migrants. |
| Keywords: | humanitarian parole; Illegal immigration; unauthorized immigration; CHNV program |
| JEL: | J15 F22 D74 |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103133 |
| By: | Louise Devos; François Rycx; Thomas Senterre; Mélanie Volral (-) |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer–employee data on more than 62, 000 master’s graduates, this paper examines how gender differences in wage returns to fields of study vary by migration background and how educational specialisation contributes to the gender wage gap. We estimate wage regressions and apply a decomposition approach to separate sorting across fields from differences in pay within fields. Returns vary widely, with law, economics and management, and science yielding the highest returns, and women earning less than men within all fields, especially in high-paying ones. First-generation immigrants from developing countries obtain the lowest returns regardless of field of study, while second-generation immigrants approach but do not fully match natives. Fields of study explain a substantial share of gender wage inequality among natives and second-generation immigrants, whereas among first-generation immigrants broader wage disadvantages dominate. Results further vary with the number of parents originating from developing countries and with age at arrival. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, first- and second-generation immigrants, field of study, employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1141 |
| By: | Delia Furtado; Samantha Trajkovski; Nikolaos Theodoropoulos |
| Abstract: | When maternity leave policies lower the cost of taking leave, leave durations tend to increase. If enough people extend their leaves, social norms can shift, further reinforcing longer leave-taking. This paper examines whether foreign-born mothers in the US-who are not directly subject to home country policies-respond to policy changes abroad via norms. Exploiting variation in US birth timing and policy reforms abroad, we find that increases in paid leave in immigrants' home countries lead to longer US maternity leaves, even after accounting for country-of-origin fixed effects. Heterogeneity analyses and placebo tests also point to policy-induced shifting leave-taking norms. |
| Keywords: | Maternity Leave, Gender Norms, Immigrants, Female Labor Supply |
| JEL: | J13 J15 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2560 |
| By: | Johan Fourie (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Calumet Links (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Households that migrate after a political crisis are not always those most directly harmed by it. We link Voortrekker genealogical records to the 1825 Cape Colony census using machine learning record linkage, obtaining 558 accepted Voortrekker–census links that correspond to 536 unique matched census households. Those households are compared to 9, 884 non-Voortrekker households. What distinguished Trekkers from stayers was household composition: Voortrekker households were larger, with more children and more working-age men. Wealth was statistically indistinguishable between migrants and stayers. Within districts, Trekkers held fewer slaves and produced less wheat and wine, the profile of pastoral frontier families pressing against the limits of available land. Using slave compensation records, we find no evidence that households with larger emancipation losses were more likely to trek. In Hirschman’s (1970) framework, exit was exercised not by those most aggrieved but by those for whom exit was cheapest: large, land-hungry households whose demographic circumstances made the interior’s grazing land the obvious destination. These findings offer the first individual-level quantitative evidence for the demographic-pressure interpretation of the Great Trek, and a direct test of the emancipation hypothesis that has been impossible until now. |
| Keywords: | Great Trek, migration selection, South Africa, slavery, fertility |
| JEL: | N37 J61 C45 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers396 |
| By: | Jacopo Mazza; Mariapia Mendola; Marco Scipioni |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of exposure to immigrants during formative years on attitudes toward immigration later on in life. Our research design combines granular administrative data on immigrant shares in Germany with longitudinal individual-level data on immigration sentiment. Using panel fixed-effect estimates, identification leverages both spatial variation at critical ages and time variation induced by birth cohorts. We find that individuals exposed to higher shares of immigrants in formative years exhibit more negative attitudes toward immigration in adulthood. The impact is small in magnitude but specific to critical age and robust to contemporaneous immigration exposure. Our findings suggest that early and unmediated exposure to a diverse social and ethnic environment may have long-lasting consequences for the formation of immigration preferences. |
| Keywords: | Immigration Attitudes, Immigration Exposure, Impressionable Years, Political Preferences. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 F68 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:571 |
| By: | Emma Bacci |
| Abstract: | Migration is reshaping demographic landscapes across Europe, raising urgent questions about adapting to rapid population changes. This study examines the canton of Fribourg, Switzerland, which experienced a 30% population increase over the past 15 years, driven by international and internal migration. As local governments face mounting pressures from demographic shifts in housing, education, and social services, understanding the causal effects of migration is essential for evidence-based policymaking. We study how migration reshapes local demographic, educational, and housing outcomes across 112 Fribourg municipalities (2010-2021). Using the intertemporal difference-in-differences estimator of De Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (2024), which accommodates staggered timing and cumulative, non-binary treatment, we identify the effect of a one-percentage-point increase in cumulative migration balance (relative to baseline population). Migration exposure generates modest but persistent adjustments across demographic, educational, and housing dimensions. Both migration types reduce the share of elderly residents, and international inflows are associated with higher birth counts. Internal migration increases resident students and alters compulsory and secondary-school cohorts, while international migration slightly reduces the tertiary-education share. Housing adjustments are gradual and concentrated in household composition and selected dwelling types, with international migration increasing mid-sized households and internal migration reducing mixed-use dwellings. Though yearly effects are small, their persistence yields meaningful cumulative changes. Overall, migration acts as a counterweight to population aging and generates incremental adjustments in service demand, underscoring the need to incorporate migration exposure into cantonal and municipal planning. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.05898 |
| By: | Marques, Renan; Maciel, Mateus; Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | We study how Venezuelan refugee inflows affect healthcare outcomes and municipal public finances in Brazil's universal, decentralized public healthcare system. For identification, we exploit cross-municipality variation in refugee exposure and use distance to Brazil's only official border crossing with Venezuela as an instrument. A one-percentage-point increase in the local refugee share raises overall mortality by 4.2 percent and infant mortality by up to 9 percent. We show these effects operate through both the poorer baseline health of arriving refugees and congestion in local health facilities. Municipalities increase the share of spending on healthcare, but absent compensating federal transfers, they do so at the expense of education's budget share. These results highlight the limits of decentralized service provision in absorbing the health and fiscal costs of concentrated migration shocks. |
| Keywords: | Forced migration, refugees, public health, Brazil |
| JEL: | H75 J61 I10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1748 |
| By: | Cole, Matt (University of Birmingham); Koster, Hans (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ozgen, Ceren (University of Birmingham); Yumoto, Hiromi (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Using the quasi-random allocation of refugees and detailed administrative data, we examine the effect of urban density on refugees’ decisions to naturalise. Our results indicate that refugees assigned to urban areas are more likely to naturalise, largely due to a higher density of co-national networks. We find that a one standard deviation increase in co-national density increases the likelihood of naturalising by 1.3 percentage points. Our findings remain robust even after accounting for factors such as labour market effects and public attitudes and seem to stem from the reduced information costs and strength of weak ties within co-national networks. |
| Keywords: | refugees, legal integration, naturalisation, urbanisation, co-national networks |
| JEL: | J15 J18 O52 R19 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18590 |
| By: | Joseph Kopecky (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Children of low‐income immigrants in the United States systematically out‐earn children of comparable natives. I develop a dynastic general‐equilibrium model to explain this 'immigrant mobility advantage' and quantify the macroeconomic costs of the institutional frictions underlying it. The central mechanism is a wedge between latent human capital and realized earnings: immigrants are positively selected on ability but face institutional frictions that decay at rate λ. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model fits key empirical patterns and reveals that immigrant frictions cost the U.S. economy 4.94% of GDP. This loss is split between a static labor‐misallocation loss (1.57 pp) and dynamic effects on intergenerational investment in human and physical capital (3.37 pp). I find that friction decay (assimilation) accounts for 87% of the second‐generation advantage, with positive selection contributing the remainder. Finally, the model identifies a 'sign‐flip' threshold at λ ≈ 0.25, beyond which frictions persist too strongly for the mobility advantage to appear. Calibrating λ across ten OECD destinations recovers a distribution of friction values that straddles this threshold, consistent with the heterogeneous mobility gaps documented in the empirical literature. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, intergenerational mobility, human capital, assimilation, general equilibrium |
| JEL: | E24 J15 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0826 |
| By: | Ikanda, Fred Nyongesa; Owiso, Michael Omondi |
| Abstract: | International support has failed to keep pace with the growing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, thus creating a financing gap between their needs and available resources. The recent US withdrawal from funding development and humanitarian programmes has only compounded this financing gap which has existed for more than a decade. In response to this, the international community - through Agenda 2030, the Grand Bargain, the 2016 New York Declaration, and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) - has advocated for a shift from seeing refugees as emergencies to integrating them into the host countries' developmental agenda. In Kenya, these policy proposals are most recently being implemented through the Shirika Plan, the Differentiated Assistance (DA) model, and development plans of refugee-hosting counties such as Turkana and Garissa. First, the Shirika Plan is a government-led initiative that was proclaimed in 2023 to realise the socio-economic inclusion of refugees within the local context in line with the progressive provisions of the Refugee Act of 2021. Implementation of this policy is yet to begin as it is pegged on elusive donor funding. Second, the DA model is led by the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Food Programme (WFP) and is aligned with the Shirika Plan. The preparatory activities for DA were undertaken throughout 2024 and implementation commenced in August 2025. DA seeks to increase refugee self-reliance through livelihood interventions and providing support based on the specific needs and capabilities of different refugee households as pposed to the previous blanket support that was based on refugee registration status. However, implementation has so far only focussed on reducing aid, without corresponding investment in self-reliance measures. DA and the Shirika Plan are framed in government and international circles as solutions for addressing funding shortfalls and fostering refugee integration by supporting self-reliance. However, there has been little progress in enhancing refugee self-reliance. At the same time, aid cuts are implemented based on a needs-categorisation of refugee households that proceeds without adequate background information. The lack of alternative livelihoods has exacerbated vulnerabilities and has sparked protests in refugee camps. Emerging evidence points to negative coping mechanisms, including higher school drop-out rates; reported cases of youths joining criminal religious groups; increased conflicts at family level; and rising cases of women becoming sex workers. This Policy Brief highlights the emerging ramifications of implementing DA that is anchored in the provisions contained in the Shirika Plan. The Brief also goes further to suggest recommendations for action to the government of Kenya and the international community. Key policy messages: * There is a need to enhance synergy between UNHCR and the Kenyan government such that the state implements the Shirika Plan alongside DA without premising its implementation on donor aid. * UNHCR needs to obtain more extensive household economic data and involve refugees in deciding who is most vulnerable to more accurately disaggregate refugee households into appropriate categories. * The Kenyan government and international actors need to closely monitor and address potential nega-tive implications of implementing DA and the Shirika Plan. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340852 |
| By: | Martin-Shields, Charles |
| Abstract: | This policy brief offers advice for making digital remote work a viable solution to fill labour gaps without requiring workers to physically relocate. From a technology standpoint, there is no reason someone who does computer-based work must physically relocate, assuming they have the required job skills and internet connectivity. The increased use of bilateral labour agreements (BLAs) between countries is evidence that there are major skills gaps and global competition for labour. Indeed, a BLA can serve as a "policy sandbox" where governments negotiate the legal and statutory terms of digital remote work. Digital remote work can be an especially useful solution when the country providing labour has a large pool of people who are willing to work and fill labour pool gaps in countries of employment, but for different legal or personal reasons cannot relocate across borders. This latter point is no small thing: there is a significant body of migration research showing that the majority of people are not interested in moving across borders - or in the case of many refugees are unable to do so. The reasons for this are myriad. Digital labour could be a workaround to meet basic labour demand and facilitate economic inclusion. The word "could" is critical because banking, social and health insurance, and taxation, all of which are components of legal employment, remain bordered. This policy brief will focus on a specific case from research on urban refugee livelihoods where the worker was able to work digitally in the U.S. from Malaysia, while being subject to social security, taxation and insurance in the U.S. The idiosyncrasies in this case help point to spaces for reforming social security, tax and insurance rules to reduce their "bordered-ness" and make digital work more systematically viable. Key policy messages: To make digital remote work viable at scale, development cooperation agencies should play a key facilitator role, linking relevant authorities in the tax, social insurance and banking regulation sectors. This is especially important for refugees, who often cannot move and who fall outside the protection of host country labour laws. These reforms could, for example, be built into BLAs. Achieving inclusive economic development goals via digital employment would require that remote workers earned competitive salaries. Thus, there would need to be buy-in from the private sector regarding wage competitiveness for workers in different countries, as well as a role for unions and civil society in negotiating digital remote work policy. While digital work can enable greater economic and labour participation for workers who cannot relocate for jobs, there are still sectors that require physical presence. Thus, digital remote work is not a replacement for immigration policy that facilitates safe and flexible migration for those people who do have to move. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Digitalisation, Remote Work, Refugees, Bilateral Labour Agreements |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340867 |
| By: | Stanislav Avdeev (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first evidence on the impact of exposure to international students on the long-term outcomes of native students. I combine unique survey and administrative data from the Netherlands covering one million students across three decades and employ an across-cohort design. I find that exposure to international students leads natives to (i) form social ties with non-natives, (ii) hold more positive attitudes towards migration and learning about other cultures, and (iii) seek opportunities abroad. Notably, I find precisely estimated zero effects on employment, income, entrepreneurship, and the share of international co-workers up to 25 years after university entry. |
| Keywords: | Contact hypothesis, domestic students, foreign students, higher education, labor market, mobility, networks, peer effects, emigration |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250067 |
| By: | Vaalavuo, Maria; Riekhoff, Aart-Jan; Karhula, Aleksi |
| Abstract: | Concurrently to population ageing, the number of older people with immigrant background is rising. Immigrant background in conjunction with family and labour market trajectories during working age will increasingly shape inequality in late life. In this study, we ask: 1) What kinds of work-family trajectories can be identified among immigrant and native men and women in the years preceding retirement? 2) How do clusters of these trajectories differ by immigration background and gender? 3) How are these clusters linked to socioeconomic outcomes at age 65 and throughout working age? We use Finnish full-population register data from 1987-2022. Our analysis sample consists of individuals observed in the data for the entire observation period from age 45 to 65. Using multichannel sequence analysis and cluster analysis, we identified seven clusters. High-income earner with family was the most common among natives (21%), while low-income earner with family was the most common among immigrants (26%). The identified clusters correlate with differences in earnings development from age 45 to 65 and poverty status at age 65. Poverty at age 65 is higher among immigrants in all clusters, while being single is an important predictor of poverty regardless of the cluster. Gender appeared to affect poverty and earnings development much less than immigrant background when work-life trajectory was taken into account. Our study provides novel evidence on older immigrants and illustrates great heterogeneity regarding work-family trajectories, highlighting the importance of analysing determinants of poverty and inequality across the life course in a heterogenous population. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rk8n4_v1 |
| By: | Elizabeth Cox; Chloe N. East |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere, but, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control and then implement an event study and difference-in-differences design. Areas that experienced particularly large increases in the number of arrests also experienced a decrease in work among likely undocumented immigrants who remain in the U.S., compared to areas with smaller increases in arrests. We find no evidence of positive spillover effects to U.S.-born workers and U.S.-born workers who work in immigrant-heavy sectors are harmed. |
| JEL: | J1 J2 J6 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35129 |
| By: | Das, Utsoree,; Dellaferrera, Giulia,; Ananian, Sévane, |
| Abstract: | This study examines the labour market outcomes of second-generation migrants in 32 countries (30 European countries, Australia and the United States of America). Drawing on data from labour force surveys and other household surveys contained in the ILO Microdata Repository, it focuses on labour force participation, unemployment, status in employment, wages and self-employment income. The results of the analysis reveal differences between second-generation migrants and other people born in the same country once the specific composition of that population group in terms of age and educational attainment is taken into account. Second-generation migrants generally exhibit lower labour market participation and higher unemployment rates, and they appear more likely to be employees than self-employed in several of the countries studied. With regard to earnings, on average across the countries studied, a small wage gap is observed between second-generation migrant workers and the rest of native-born workers, with wage premiums existing only in a few countries. The final chapter discusses relevant legal frameworks dealing with non-discrimination and employment that affect second-generation migrants. |
| Keywords: | migrant workers, labour market analysis, employment, income, international labour standards, methodology |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995653274302676 |
| By: | Razavi, Goya (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Eshaghnia, Sadegh (Dept. of Economics, University of Chicago); Leon, Raul (Dept. of Economics, Brown University) |
| Abstract: | To what extent do childhood neighborhoods shape long-run socio-economic outcomes, and through which mechanisms? Using the quasi-random assignment of refugee children across neighborhoods in Denmark, we show that exposure to higher-quality neighborhoods—as measured by average neighborhood income and the wage outcomes of permanent resident children—raises labor force participation and market income in adulthood. Beyond economic integration, better neighborhoods further promote social integration by increasing educational attainment and naturalization. Applying a causal mediation analysis, we reject full mediation via neighborhood and school characteristics but not via parental income, pointing to the family as a fundamental mediator of neighborhood effects. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood effects; intergenerational mobility; migrant integration; causal mediation; parental investments |
| JEL: | I24 I38 J15 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_006 |
| By: | Ncube, Tomy; Ekoh, Susan |
| Abstract: | Climate-related extreme weather events are increasingly displacing communities across Southern Africa, with negative implications for social cohesion, livelihoods, and community resilience. Understanding how displacement erodes social cohesion is important for developing strategies for restoring it. Evidence shows that livelihood support interventions, for example, cash-based assistance, in-kind transfers (agricultural inputs) up to skills development programmes, are a pathway for mending or strengthening social cohesion in displacement contexts. Yet, in some cases, they can further fragment it. This requires strategies under which such interventions can be deployed to positively shape social cohesion outcomes. This Policy Brief synthesises insights from qualitative research conducted from 2023 to 2025 with displaced communities and host populations in Zimbabwe (Chimanimani and Tsholotsho districts) and Mozambique (Guara Guara, Grudja and Praia Nova). It examines how livelihood interventions can either rebuild or further fragment social cohesion, identifies critical factors driving cohesion outcomes, and provides evidence-based recommendations for national governments, humanitarian actors, and development cooperation actors working in climate-displacement contexts across Southern Africa. In Zimbabwe, vertical social cohesion in displacement contexts is eroded by a lack of designated policies on displacement, leading to poor socioeconomic outcomes for displaced individuals; ad hoc recovery and reconstruction efforts that undermine durable solutions and long-term recovery; and a lack of accountability infrastructure that undermines trust in the government. In Mozambique, the slow implementation and unequal distribution of recovery interventions undermine cooperation between communities and the institutions involved in post-disaster recovery efforts. This has led to large-scale returns of people to high-risk areas. Drawing insights from both case studies, we provide key recommendations and conditions for implementing livelihood support to achieve social cohesion in climaterelated displacement contexts. Key policy messages. Livelihood interventions can lead to maladaptation if not supported by strong governance mechanisms including policy frameworks and institutional coordination in planning and implementation. People-centred, area-based approaches to livelihood programming that account for predisplacement livelihoods and support postdisplacement transitions, while benefiting both displaced populations and host communities, should be adopted. One-size-fits-all interventions risk undermining economic recovery and social cohesion. Horizontal and vertical social cohesion indicators should be embedded in livelihood programmes from the outset to assess the social impacts before and after implementation. Inclusive, participatory decision-making in the delivery of livelihood support programmes should be mandated to prevent exclusionary practices that erode trust in institutions. |
| Keywords: | displacement, climate chance, social cohesion, Africa |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340868 |
| By: | Shin, Seonho (Ajou University & IZA) |
| Abstract: | The impact of sudden asylum seeker inflows on host residents’ mental health is largely unexplored. The present study addresses this research gap and provides the first causal evidence from the non-Western context by exploiting the unexpected influx of Yemeni asylum seekers to Jeju Island, South Korea. The influx affected the island ‘locally’ due to its region-specific visa-free entry policy and the host government’s immediate restrictions on the asylum seekers’ post-arrival cross-region movement off the island. Such a unique combination of entry policy, post-arrival containment, and geographic separation provides a well-defined quasi-experimental setting for causal investigation. Difference-in-differences estimates based on nationally representative, government-collected data suggest that the influx shock worsened host residents’ mental health outcomes—with higher depression and anxiety and lower life satisfaction. Furthermore, this study provides the evidence on the possible mechanisms linking the influx to hosts’ mental health, revealing heightened public safety worries and diminished trust in government. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, refugees, host residents, mental health, life satisfaction, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | F22 I12 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18586 |