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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Teagan Hood |
| Abstract: | Learning continuity and engaging young people in supportive schooling environments are often overlooked in research, policy and aid sector responses to displacement. With increasing numbers of long-term displaced people, states and families must consider long-term planning for young people. This paper contributes to the understanding of household factors that influence whether a young person of school age displaced from Syria to Lebanon in 2010-2016 was in school or not by quantitatively analysing survey data collected by the World Bank in 2015-16. The head of household’s (HoH) years of education was shown to have the greatest effect with each additional year of HoH schooling increasing the likelihood the youth was in school by 11.5-14.8 per cent. The length of displacement increased the likelihood of the youth being in school by 1.6-2.1 percent per additional month the HoH had been in Lebanon. An increase in the HoH’s exposure to violence in Syria pre-displacement decreased the likelihood the youth was in school by 1.9-2.1 per cent. Pre-displacement socio-economic factors did not have a statistically significant effect, though this is likely due to imperfect measures. These results support identification of at-risk displaced youths in host countries to support more effective learning continuity strategies and targeted engagement in the education system. |
| Keywords: | basic education, conflict, displacement, education, equity, lebanon, opportunities, parent, policy, refugee, syria |
| JEL: | I24 I25 I26 I28 I38 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:453 |
| By: | Peng, Xue; Dai, Erbiao |
| Abstract: | To alleviate the growing shortage of care workers, the recruitment of foreign labor has become an important strategy in the care sectors of many high-income countries. However, existing studies on the impacts of foreign care workers--an issue of major concern for host countries--remain limited and report mixed findings. Taking Japan as a case study, this paper empirically examines whether the employment of foreign care workers in the care sector affects the health outcomes of native residents. We use Japanese native mortality rate attributable to care institutions as a proxy for health outcomes and focus on the impact of the share of foreigners among Certified Care Workers (CCWs). Using prefecture-level panel data from 2012 to 2023 and fixed-effects models, we find a statistically significant and negative association between the share of foreigners among CCWs and the native mortality rate attributable to care institutions. However, when applying causal inference methods, the causal effect remains inconclusive. We further examine heterogeneous associations and obtain several noteworthy findings. In addition, pathway analyses suggest that the negative association between the share of foreigners among CCWs and native mortality rates is more likely driven by improvements in the quality, rather than the quantity, of care workforce human capital. Overall, our findings indicate that the employment of foreign CCWs is associated with improved health outcomes for native residents, thereby supporting the continuation of Japan's immigration policy of admitting foreign CCWs in the care sector--a field facing an increasingly severe labor shortage. |
| Keywords: | Certificated care worker, Foreigner, Regional mortality rate, Elderly, Japan |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000271 |
| By: | Chao Li; Xing Su; Chao Fan; Yang Li; Luping Li; Chunmo Zheng; Wenglong Chao; Leena Jarvi; Han Lin; Juan Tu |
| Abstract: | While climate-induced population migration has received rising attention, the role played by human climate endeavors remains underexplored. Here, we combine machine learning with attribution mapping to analyze the impacts of 4, 713 heat-related policies (HPs) on 11, 177 migration flows between U.S. counties. We find that heat adaptation policies (APs) and heat mitigation policies (MPs) have significant and opposing impacts on internal migration: APs reduce out-migration, while MPs increase it. These policies have heterogeneous effects on migration among policy types. Behavioral and cultural MPs at origins lead to a 0.24%-0.68% (95% confidence interval) increase in annual outflows per policy, whereas behavioral and cultural APs at destinations elevate outflows of origins by 0.11%-1.55% (95% confidence interval). Migration patterns are nonlinearly moderated by income, ageing, education, and racial diversity of both origin and destination counties. Ageing rates have the most noticeable U-shaped relationship in shaping migration responses to behavioral and cultural MPs at origins, and inverted U-shapes for institutional MPs at origins and nature-based MPs at destinations. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers on how HPs influence migration as global warming and policy interventions persist. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.10570 |
| By: | Adam Lavecchia; Robert McKercher; Alisa Tazhitdinova |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of income taxation on inter-provincial migration in Canada. We exploit a major tax decentralization reform between 1998-2001 that led to some provinces lowering their marginal and average tax rates more than others, particularly for top earners. Using a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a population stock-elasticity with respect to the net-of-average-tax rate of about 2.5-3 for young, unmarried high-income individuals. The estimates for older and married individuals are smaller and mostly statistically insignificant. We find that the population stock elasticity estimates are driven by a reduction the likelihood that young, unmarried and high-income individuals emigrate from their province of residence (i.e. out-migration) rather than a change to in-migration. This suggests that individuals react more strongly to tax changes in their home province rather than tax changes in other provinces. |
| Keywords: | migration, taxation, within-country mobility |
| JEL: | H2 H21 H24 H26 H71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12600 |
| By: | István Boza (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Szabó Endre (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Databank); Róbert Károlyi (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | Immigrants’ economic integration remains one of the most debated aspects of international migration, as they often experience persistent employment and wage disadvantages compared to natives. We provide the first large-scale evidence on immigrant pay gaps in Hungary (and more generally from Central Eastern Europe) based on administrative matched employer–employee data. Contrary to the pattern documented in Western Europe and North America, most immigrant groups in Hungary earn more than native-born workers on average. We show that this advantage is largely explained by sorting: immigrants are disproportionately employed in higher-paying firms and higher-paying occupation–firm cells, rather than receiving higher pay than natives for the same job in the same workplace. Within-job pay differences are close to zero for transborder Hungarians (ethnic Hungarians born abroad) and remain small but positive for other immigrant groups. These results suggest that immigrant wage differentials in Hungary reflect employer demand and selective recruitment into relatively well-paying segments of the labor market, rather than systematic under or overpayment. Decomposition results (based on the AKM literature) reinforce our interpretation: immigrant–native wage differentials in Hungary are driven mainly by between-job sorting along skill composition and firm and occupation pay premia, not within-job pay inequality. |
| Keywords: | wage differentials, immigration, segregation, wage sorting |
| JEL: | J31 J61 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2606 |
| By: | Bruni, Michele |
| Abstract: | Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is proposing very restrictive migration policies. This paper argues that, given Japan's past migration strategy, large-scale immigration will become unavoidable. By contrast, other countries facing similar structural labour shortages will be able to respond not only through immigration but also by increasing labour market participation. |
| Keywords: | Japan, Western countries, labour shortage, labour market indicators, immigration policies, demographic trends |
| JEL: | J11 J61 F22 J14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1737 |
| By: | Maria Giovanna Bosco (Department of Management, Marche Polytechnic University, Italy); Elisa Valeriani (Department of Law, University of Modena and Reggio-Emilia, Italy); Linda Armano (Interconnected Nord-Est Innovation Ecosystem - Temporary Project Centre, Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | The study rigorously analyzes the occupational trajectories of foreign- and native-born workers in Italy's Emilia-Romagna region. Using a comprehensive administrative dataset spanning 2008-2015, we assess patterns of upward professional mobility and empirically test the widely discussed stepping-stone hypothesis by examining job transitions across skill levels. Our empirical findings reveal a persistent and significant disparity. Specifically, foreign workers have a substantially higher probability of remaining in low-skilled occupations, indicating limited upward mobility. We also separately analyze the stability of initial employment and the incidence of subsequent unemployment spells, revealing clear and quantifiable differences between the two cohorts. These results provide robust evidence for the existence of an ethnicity penalty and a low-skill penalty that systematically impede professional advancement within the regional labor market. This form of occupational segregation, differentiated by ethnic origin, is consistent with patterns observed in other Southern European and Asian economies. |
| Keywords: | Foreign workers, low-skill jobs, occupational mobility |
| JEL: | J20 J21 J41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:507 |