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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Jongkwan Lee; Seoyoung Kwon; Joan Monràs |
| Abstract: | High-skilled migration programs exist around the world in the hope that immigrants complement native workers, allow firms to grow, and boost innovation. We study the effect of one such program by exploiting the 2016 extension of the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which significantly prolonged the work authorization period for international STEM graduates. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences approach, we find that the policy successfully increased the local supply of high-skilled immigrants in exposed Commuting Zones. This local inflow stimulated firm creation and the demand for native high-skilled workers. The program might have also boosted innovation in certain sectors and startup investment, especially in Commuting Zones hosting top-ranked universities, where, overall, the effects tend to be larger. |
| Keywords: | firm dynamics, high-skilled migration, immigration, Labor demand |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1564 |
| By: | Minali Grover; Ajay Sharma |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how internal migration influences educational assortative mating patterns in India using Periodic Labour Force Survey data (2020-21). We analyze the association of migrant status and type of assortative mating, that is whether migrants are more likely to engage in homogamous (similar education) or heterogamous (different education) marriages compared to non-migrants. Results show migrants are significantly more likely to form educationally heterogamous marriages, with urban-to-urban migrants particularly prone to hypogamy (marrying higher-educated partners). These findings are validated using instrumental variables including crime rates, migrant networks, and unemployment rates. Family structure and marriage pool composition emerge as key mechanisms driving educational heterogamy among migrants, suggesting migration fundamentally alters marital formation preferences away from traditional educational homogamy patterns. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.01014 |
| By: | Gauthier Fontanive (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Emma Thill (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); |
| Abstract: | "We study how shared experiences that make immigration salient impact public attitudes toward immigration. Combining 11 waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2023) with data on European national football team performance in major international competitions and team diversity, we exploit quasi-random variation in match timing relative to survey interviews to identify shifts in immigration attitudes. We develop two measures of diversity: a surname-based ancestry index and a racial classification based on visible markers using machine learning tools. We find that following defeats, respondents in countries with a more diverse national team perceive immigrants to have a worse impact on their country. Victories, in contrast, lead to higher desired levels of immigration. These effects are strongest following unexpected or close defeats and victories. In addition, defeats tend to boost support for far-right parties when team diversity is high. Our results are robust to alternative specifications in the case of defeats, suggesting a scapegoating mechanism that is translated from (perceived) out-group players onto the out-group as a whole. Our findings showcase that shared experiences such as international sporting competitions that make diversity salient generate strong emotional responses that may translate into temporary important attitude and preference shifts towards diversity." |
| Keywords: | Immigration attitudes, Football, Diversity, Migration |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 O52 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:26-05 |
| By: | Jongkwan Lee; Giovanni Peri; Hee-Seung Yang |
| Abstract: | As workforces in high-income countries age and shrink, immigrants increasingly fill entry-level, low-skilled jobs. We examine what happens when this labor supply is abruptly reduced, exploiting South Korea’s sudden suspension of its low-skilled guest worker program following the 2020 COVID-19 border closure. Using policy-driven variation in firms’ pre-pandemic reliance on immigrant labor, we show that the collapse in inflows led to a significant increase in firm exit. Among surviving firms, greater pre-pandemic dependence on immigrant workers resulted in production disruptions and operational delays. Firms did not respond by expanding domestic hiring to replace missing guest workers. Instead, they adjusted by reallocating incumbent Korean employees toward lower-skilled tasks, contributing to occupational downgrading and significant wage declines. These findings suggest that low-skilled immigrant workers were not easily substitutable in the short run and that tighter immigration constraints can impose substantial adjustment costs on both firms and native workers. |
| JEL: | J60 J68 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34927 |
| By: | Portes, Jonathan (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations—or promises—articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends. Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 2016–25. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour government’s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, immigration, employment, UK |
| JEL: | F22 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18419 |
| By: | Atabay, Zeynep (Uppsala University and UCLS); Åslund, Olof (Uppsala University, IFAU, RF Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We examine the wage returns to host-country work experience among immigrants by reconstructing full employment histories using Swedish pension records and longitudinal matched employer–employee data. Our findings show that: (i) returns to experience are sizable and concave, consistent with standard models, and vary by gender, education, and region of origin; (ii) returns for immigrant workers have risen since the early 2000s; (iii) returns differ across industries and occupations, with experience in high-skill and high-wage workplaces being especially valuable; (iv) returns are generally greater for natives than for immigrants; and (v) potential experience serves as a reasonable proxy at lower experience levels but tends to overstate returns for more experienced workers. |
| Keywords: | experience; wages; immigrants |
| JEL: | J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_006 |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | This paper interprets Brexit as a two-stage institutional rupture that reshaped migration through expectations, exposure, and stress channels. Using a UK–Germany Difference-in-Differences framework, I show that the 2016 referendum generated a sharp decline in UK net migration relative to Germany, driven primarily by a contraction in immigration rather than simple outward flight. The 2021 termination of EU free movement reinforced this adjustment on the gross inflow margin, completing the structural reallocation of mobility flows. Migration responses were not uniform: countries more deeply integrated into EU mobility networks prior to 2016 experienced significantly stronger contractions, confirming that Brexit propagated along pre-existing exposure channels. Embedding macro-financial stress interactions reveals that institutional fragility amplified the referendum shock, particularly during the expectations phase. Stress intensified migration contractions in exposed settings in 2016, while post-2021 responses became more heterogeneous, especially on the emigration margin. Together, the results support a sequential interpretation: an anticipatory expectations shock in 2016 followed by regime completion in 2021. Beyond short-run behavioral adjustments, the findings are consistent with the fiscal self-selection framework. Increases in perceived institutional risk alter the relative returns to skill and investment, reshaping both the composition of migration and foreign direct investment. Because skilled labor and FDI are complementary, institutional credibility shocks can generate self-reinforcing declines in human capital inflows and investment. Brexit therefore emerges not merely as a trade or regulatory event, but as an institutional credibility shock in which migration operates both as an outcome and as a transmission mechanism linking regime change to long-run growth dynamics. |
| JEL: | F0 F29 F47 P0 P5 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34941 |
| By: | Oliver Hümbelin; Maurizio Strazzeri; Sebastian Torkisz; Olivier Lehmann |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the 2019 reform of Switzerland’s Foreign Nationals and Integration Act on hidden poverty among foreign nationals. By linking residence permit extension and naturalisation to independence from social assistance, the reform intensified the intersection between welfare and migration policy and introduced new potential deterrents to benefit claiming. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, we analyse how the reform affected the non-take-up of social assistance among foreign residents. The empirical analysis relies on linked administrative data from tax, population, and social assistance registers for a large urban area in Switzerland covering the period 2016–2022. While social assistance eligibility rates declined over time, indicating generally favourable economic conditions, non-take-up increased slightly, particularly among groups most exposed to the reform. DiD estimates reveal a statistically significant post-reform increase in non-take-up of between 1.8 and 2.9 percentage points among third-country nationals holding a settlement permit (C). The effect is especially pronounced among households with children. These findings suggest that migration-related conditionality may have unintended consequences by discouraging benefit claiming and thereby institutionalising hidden poverty. More broadly, the study highlights how the interaction between welfare and migration policies may reshape effective access to social rights and challenge the inclusiveness of contemporary welfare states. |
| Keywords: | non-take-up, linked-tax data, welfare conditionality |
| JEL: | I38 J15 I32 H53 |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:55 |
| By: | Ransom, Tyler (University of Oklahoma) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a non-technical summary of recent research on why people stay put rather than move, even in the face of adverse local economic shocks. I compare three frameworks for understanding migration: the moving costs model, the spatial frictions model, and a newer approach called the SPACE model. The models differ in their explanations of why individuals stay put. The moving costs model emphasizes financial or psychological barriers to migration, the spatial frictions model emphasizes lack of information or job opportunities, and the SPACE model emphasizes persistent preferences for one’s current location. While the SPACE model best explains observed migration patterns, all three mechanisms operate simultaneously in practice. Therefore, successful regional policies should address all three: reducing barriers, providing information, and building community ties that make locations persistently attractive. |
| Keywords: | migration, moving costs, spatial frictions, place-based policy, regional economics |
| JEL: | J61 J68 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18410 |
| By: | Maurizio Strazzeri; Oliver Hümbelin; Olivier Lehmann |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented economic shock, raising concerns that the pandemic may reinforce existing labor market inequalities. Theories on social stratification suggest that such disruptions can amplify structural disadvantages faced by migrant groups. Using linked administrative data from social security and population registry records for 2016–2022, we construct a balanced panel of more than two million prime-age workers with stable prepandemic labor market attachment. We estimate difference-in-differences event-study models to examine how labor earnings of native and foreign workers evolved before and after the onset of the pandemic across the labor earnings distribution. In the lower part of the labor earnings distribution, the labor earnings gap between natives and non-EU/EFTA workers at the onset of the pandemic did not differ from pre-pandemic years. However, this gap widened thereafter, indicating that the pandemic exacerbated disadvantages for this group. Moreover, analyses using linked survey data suggest that differential sorting into occupations or sectors does not fully account for these results. Overall, our findings indicate that large economic shocks can reproduce or intensify existing labor market inequalities. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 Pandemic, Inequality, Cumulative Disadvantage, Migration |
| JEL: | J61 J31 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:54 |