|
on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | International migration policy for lower-income countries is still guided by assumptions from an earlier era—when less-educated labor was abundant, skilled emigration was seen purely as ‘brain drain, ’ and development was expected to reduce migration. That world is gone. This paper reviews recent research on migration policy in the 21st century, when demographic decline is making labor scarce globally, skilled emigration can yield net long- term gains for origin countries, and development often increases migration pressures for generations. The literature shows that migration, managed through innovative institutions, can sustain fiscal systems in aging economies, spur human capital investment at origin, and accelerate structural change. Migration is not a substitute for development, but a catalyst and major opportunity. Policy priorities include regional free-movement regimes, new destination-country partnerships, restructured skill-training systems for a mobile world, and integrating migration into aid partnerships. Much more research is needed to understand the impacts of these tools. |
| Keywords: | brain drain, skills, irregular, asylum, aging, demographic, development, emigration, immigration, migration, Africa, refugee, workforce |
| JEL: | F22 F24 F35 F65 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18308 |
| By: | Hillenbrand, Tobias (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance) |
| Abstract: | The correlation between rising asylum immigration and the electoral success of far-right anti-immigration parties has sparked concerns about a potential “Democratic Dilemma” – namely, a trade-off between a country’s openness to immigrants and the preservation of democratic institutional quality. Against this backdrop, I investigate the nature of the backlash to asylum immigration and analyze the potential of an “Orderly Admission Reform” to restore public acceptance for refugee protection. The data comes from an original large-scale online survey experiment conducted in Germany, Europe’s largest refugee-receiving country, where public sentiment changes have been particularly pronounced. My results reveal a “Principle-Practice” gap: while most Germans remain committed to refugee protection in principle, they express dissatisfaction with how the asylum system functions in practice. Qualitative analysis suggests that although there are concerns about the overall size of the refugee population, respondents take greater issue with the association between asylum immigration and irregular immigration. A reform proposal that aims to close irregular pathways for asylum seekers while simultaneously scaling up orderly admissions of recognized refugees enjoys broad public support. Support levels can be further boosted by embedding the proposal description in a prime that highlights aspects of improved control and management. Findings from a conjoint experiment further indicate that respondents favour policies aimed at shifting from irregular toward orderly immigration pathways, rather than endorsing the most restrictive policy options. Support for the reform proposal is remarkably consistent across diverse societal groups – including some that are typically highly polarized on immigration issues. |
| JEL: | O15 A13 D63 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025026 |
| By: | Budría, Santiago (Universidad Nebrija); Martínez de Ibarreta, Carlos (Universidad Pontificia Comillas); Betancourt-Odio, Alejandro (Universidad Pontificia Comillas) |
| Abstract: | Reducing energy poverty is a critical priority for policymakers in both developed and developing nations. Immigrants are often considered a high-risk group due to their heightened vulnerability. While host language proficiency has the potential to mitigate energy poverty among immigrants by enhancing economic integration and facilitating access to essential information and services, its role remains largely unexplored. Using Australian data and addressing endogeneity concerns through a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) approach, this paper presents the first empirical analysis of host language proficiency as a determinant of energy poverty among immigrants. The results show that proficiency in the host language reduces the likelihood of experiencing multidimensional energy poverty by approximately 18.8 percentage points. This effect is partly driven by higher incomes and better access to social assistance among proficient immigrants. The findings underscore the importance of language skills in shaping energy poverty and highlight the need for language education to reduce economic disparities among immigrant populations. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, immigrants, language skills, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | F22 I31 C36 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18312 |
| By: | Braulio Britos (InternationalMonetaryFund); Manuel Hernandez (International Food Policy Research Institute); Danilo Trupkin (Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | International migration has surged in recent years, especially from rural areas in developing countries. This paper examines how agricultural distortions contribute to these emigration patterns and affect welfare, using Guatemala as a case study. A structural model with agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, estimated with micro and aggregated data, shows that distortions drive emigration among more productive agents and cause factor misallocation, diminishing overall productivity and incomes. Reducing distortions to the most efficient departments lowers emigration by 2.3 points and raises agricultural productivity by 30.1% and median welfare by 4.5%. High-distortion areas are more isolated and lack institutional and financial access. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural distortions, Emigration, Labor mobility, Productivity, Welfare |
| JEL: | O15 O13 J24 J61 R23 Q1 O40 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:174 |
| By: | Mundra, Kusum (Rutgers University); Bagheri, Omid (Kent State University) |
| Abstract: | Using various years of data from the National Survey of College Survey we examine the earnings of work visa immigrants who entered the U.S. during the various H-1B cap periods and whether the cap was binding or not at the time of their entry. For work visa entrants in the non-academic sector as well as from cap bound countries, we find that earning premium relative to college graduate natives ranges between 17%-25% if the immigrants entered the U.S. during the initial period of H-1B and during the later binding cap periods. This premium is lost if immigrants first entered on H-1B during the non-binding period. Compared to pre 1990 work immigrants we find there is a drop in earnings for immigrants who entered on H-1B during the non binding period. This is not seen in the academic sector and for five cap exempt countries, where cap is not relevant. Our findings are driven by the H-1B program involving staffing agencies hiring of low ability workers and workers facing wage suppression with limited job mobility. Work visa entrants may also face scarring in the labor market because of lack of U.S. education experience. We do not find this drop in earning for student visa entrants who are admitted by the university selection process. |
| Keywords: | high-skilled immigrants, visa cap, H-1B, earnings |
| JEL: | J61 J24 J31 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18321 |
| By: | Boyce, Mckenzie |
| Abstract: | Despite growing emphasis on enhancing quality of life to attract residents as an economic development strategy, there is limited empirical evidence into which specific community characteristics households prioritize over others when making relocation decisions. This study investigates how a broad range of community attributes—identified through the Community Capitals Framework—influence household relocation decisions. Drawing on residential sorting models, this paper conceptualizes relocation as a utility-maximizing decision in which households weigh the expected utility of staying in their current location against that of moving to a new location. Households are assumed to relocate when the expected utility of the new location exceeds the utility of staying. Taking this conceptual framework to data, I model county-to-county migration flows based on differences in wages, housing costs, and local amenities of the destination and origin counties. Preliminary results suggest household migration increases to destination counties with higher broadband adoption, greater ethnic diversity, a higher natural amenity score, and greater voter turnout than the origin county. Migration decreases to destination counties with higher dollars lent locally, a greater labor force participation rate, and more social associations per capita than the origin county. Understanding which community attributes most influence relocation decisions is critical for policymakers and community leaders to effectively target investments that will attract new residents and foster community prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361119 |
| By: | Tobias R\"uttenauer; Kasimir Dederichs; David Kretschmer |
| Abstract: | Immigrant residential segregation can profoundly shape access to opportunities, immigrant integration, and inter-group relations. Yet we lack systematic evidence on how segregation varies across Europe, and what structural factors are associated with these patterns. This study addresses the gap by focusing on two questions: (i) how does immigrant-native segregation vary across urban areas in Europe, and (ii) which urban area- and country-level characteristics are consistently linked to segregation? Using harmonised 1x1 km grid-level data from the 2021/22 census, we calculate spatially weighted Dissimilarity Indices for all 717 Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) across 30 European countries. We combine these measures with rich data on demographics, the economy, housing, immigrant populations, and policy. To identify robust correlates of segregation, we apply a Specification Curve Analysis across 16, 164 regression models. Segregation is higher in Western and Northern Europe compared to most of Eastern and Southern Europe. Moreover, we show that segregation is heavily driven by macro-spatial dynamics between diverse urban cores and relatively homogeneous suburban areas. At the urban area level, segregation is systematically linked to the demographic composition and spatial distribution of the local population, economic conditions, housing market characteristics, as well as the composition of the immigrant population. At the national level, established immigrant destinations are more segregated, while migration and integration policies are not consistently linked to segregation. These findings offer the most comprehensive comparative assessment of immigrant segregation across Europe to date, revealing how structural conditions relate to spatial integration. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.17037 |
| By: | Andrea Vismara; Ola Ali; Carsten K\"allner; Guillermo Prieto-Viertel; Rafael Prieto-Curiel |
| Abstract: | International remittances represent a vital source of disaster adaptation finance for households around the world, yet their responsiveness to environmental disasters remains poorly quantified. We reveal a previously unmeasured global macro-financial system of international migrant diasporas remittances response to the occurrence of disasters in the country of origin. We do so by developing a structural model simulating individual remittance decisions, calibrated with global disaster records and bilateral monthly remittances flow data from the period 2010-2019. Our analysis reveals that approximately 332 billion USD (5.46\% of total remittances) were mobilized specifically in response to earthquakes, floods, storms, and droughts over the decade. Earthquakes triggered the largest remittance responses per person affected, while droughts elicited the smallest. The model also identifies significant variation in diaspora groups' capacity to activate financial support. These findings establish remittances as a substantial yet limited form of disaster finance, highlighting their importance and limitations in building resilience against future environmental shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.16373 |
| By: | Ozdogan, Selen (CUNY Graduate Center); Shih, Kevin Y. (University of California, Riverside) |
| Abstract: | Since 2022, New York City has received more than 200, 000 asylum-seekers from the southern border, many of whom were young children. Families were placed in homeless shelters, with children subsequently enrolled in nearby public elementary schools. Exploiting variation in homeless shelter capacity across school zones, we show that exposed schools saw increases in migrant students, proxied by English Language Learners, Hispanic students, and students in temporary housing. Despite these shifts, domestic students did not experience adverse impacts on enrollment, test scores, attendance, or chronic absenteeism. Progressive funding helped buffer schools against resource crowding, expanding English language instruction to accommodate newcomers. |
| Keywords: | asylum-seekers, education, immigration |
| JEL: | I22 I29 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18339 |
| By: | Schmandt, Marco (Technische Universität Berlin); Tielkes, Constantin (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder); Weinhardt, Felix (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder) |
| Abstract: | Many studies exploit the random placement of individuals into groups such as schools or regions to estimate the effects of group-level variables on these individuals. Assuming a simple data generating process, we show that the typical estimate contains three components: the causal effect of interest, ”multiple-treatment bias” (MTB), and ”mobility bias” (MB). The extent of these biases depends on the interrelations of group-level variables and onward mobility. We develop a checklist that can be used to assess the relevance of the biases based on observable quantities. We apply this framework to novel administrative data on randomly placed refugees in Germany and confirm empirically that MTB and MB cannot be ignored. The biases can even switch the signs of estimates of popular group-level variables, despite random placement. We discuss implications for the literature and alternative "ideal experiments''. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration, peer effects, group assignment, random placement, random dispersal policy |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18319 |
| By: | Hu, Shengrong (Iowa State University); Winters, John V. (Iowa State University) |
| Abstract: | The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program now provides up to 36 months of employment authorization for foreign students completing college degrees in the U.S. in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields. Econometrics and Quantitative Economics (EQE) was added as a STEM field in 2012, triggering an explosion of EQE programs and degrees conferred, but some of this growth involved displacement from other economics programs. We document the growth of EQE and examine effects of OPT and EQE program creation on overall economics bachelor’s degrees conferred to international students. We find positive effects on international economics degrees with effects that appear larger at public colleges and universities than private ones. We also examine effects on domestic students and find more mixed results. Our results suggest that EQE program creation on average benefits foreign students and higher education institutions. |
| Keywords: | economics, college education, immigration policy, STEM |
| JEL: | A22 I23 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18336 |
| By: | Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Skoy, Evelyn (Hamilton College); Kim, Paul (University of Colorado, Boulder) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of international students on the academic outcomes of domestic peers in introductory economics courses. We address the potential endogeneity of class selection by focusing on first-year students enrolling in a large public flagship university, for whom class assignment is likely to be quasi-random, conditional on a rich set of control variables for the class and individual. Results suggest an increased share of international student peers reduces the likelihood of majoring in economics for domestic White and Asian men while increasing the likelihood of majoring in economics for domestic men from underrepresented racial and ethnic groups. There is also evidence that higher shares of international student peers increase the likelihood that domestic White and Asian men major in business and decrease the likelihood that some men drop out of college. Additional analyses point to introductory course grades as possible mechanisms to explain these results, as a higher international peer share is associated with higher domestic student grades. Results for men enrolled in large introductory economics classes are similar to the main results for men overall and are also similar for women. |
| Keywords: | race/ethnicity, college dropout, college major, immigration, higher education, peer effects, gender, international, foreign |
| JEL: | I23 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18341 |
| By: | Francisco Rodr\'iguez; Giancarlo Bravo |
| Abstract: | Bahar and Hausmann (2025a) claim to find evidence against the hypothesis that oil sanctions on Venezuela lead to increased migration flows to the United States. We show that their findings derive from applying a nonstandard, misspecified Engle-Granger test to first differences. This specification is incorrect because cointegration tests are designed to evaluate relationships between the levels of variables, not their first differences. Since the residuals from regressions of I(0) variables will, under general conditions, be stationary, testing for cointegration between first differences of I(1) variables virtually ensures a spurious finding of cointegration. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the misspecified Bahar-Hausmann test on first differences exhibits a false positive rate of 100 percent. Once the Engle-Granger test is applied correctly to the logarithms of levels, the evidence of cointegration vanishes. The Bahar-Hausmann regressions therefore provide no valid basis for inference about any underlying relationship between migration and Venezuelan oil revenues. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.21424 |