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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Matteo Gamalerio, Massimo Morelli, Margherita Negri |
| Abstract: | We show that policies using plurality rule to elect their policymakers are more likely to adopt more restrictive immigration policies than those using dual-ballot systems. Plurality rule provides stronger incentives for right-wing, anti-immigrant parties to run alone, as opposed to joining a coalition with other right-wing parties that offer a less restrictive immigration policy. We prove the result theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical results hold with sincere and strategic voters, with and without endogenous turnout, and can be extended to the comparison between plurality rule and proportional representation without majority bonuses in parliamentary elections. Empirically, we combine municipal-level data on migration-related expenditures and mayoral elections and establish causality using a regression discontinuity design. |
| Keywords: | Electoral Rules, Immigration, Salience |
| JEL: | D72 J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25260 |
| By: | Hiroki KONDO |
| Abstract: | This study examines how urban agglomeration is influenced by both family public goods, which has the advantage of proximity within a family, and human capital, which increases productivity with increasing proximity of residents within a city. In some cases, proximity advantages reinforce agglomeration forces, while in others, they work in the opposite direction and weaken them. When proximity advantages exist among family members, urban population density increases beyond what exists without such advantages. This situation discourages further migration of unskilled workers from more distant regions, thereby considerably dividing society. In these regions, families perpetually remain in the regions as unskilled workers, with lower substantial incomes. The analytical framework and findings of this study provide an important basis for evaluating several important policies. First, the model exhibits multiple human capital agglomeration patterns: a monocentric equilibrium and polycentric urban structure with multiple core cities. Among them, the polycentric equilibrium enhances overall economic welfare and mitigates persistent social disparities across regions and generations. Thus, Japan should promote such an urban structure by expanding the geographical and administrative scope of local governments, as proposed by the doshusei reform. Second, the study examines the impacts of social security systems that provide family public goods to the elderly. The fact that this also mitigates social gap by encouraging parents to invest more in their children’s education is also demonstrated in the study. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25120 |
| By: | Fusae OKANIWA; Yoko IBUKA; Shiko MARUYAMA; Ting YIN |
| Abstract: | International marriages and their divorce rates in Japan have increased; however, empirical evidence regarding the underlying factors remains limited. This study examines divorce trends among international couples in Japan by comparing the divorce rates of Japanese–Japanese couples to those of Japanese–non-Japanese couples using data from the Population Census and Vital Statistics for 1995–2020. Binomial logistic regression for grouped data reveals significantly higher divorce rates for international couples than for Japanese–Japanese couples, although this gap has narrowed over time. Approximately 20% of this difference is explained by the wife’s age and the age gap between spouses. Using characteristics of non-Japanese spouses’ home countries, we find that larger within-couple disparities in age and GDP increase the risk of divorce, whereas greater distance in cultural and gender norms contributes to marital stability. These findings suggest that the complex interplay of cultural, economic, and institutional factors shapes divorce risk in international marriages. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25114 |
| By: | Simone Bertoli (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); David Mckenzie (BM = WB - La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank - WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale); Elie Murard (UNITN - Università degli Studi di Trento = University of Trento, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor) |
| Abstract: | Reading the theoretical literature on international migration, an individual considering moving to a foreign destination was standing on a rock-solid basis, formed by his or her family. The family was involved in the decision and also in the financing of the lumpy investment into migration (e.g., Stark and Bloom, 1985). This, in turn, implied that an individual migration was matched by an implicit agreement between the migrant and the non-migrant family members that the income gains from this investment would have been shared through remittances (e.g., Poirine, 1997). The empirical literature has, then explored the implications of migration and remittances on the family members left behind (e.g., Gibson, McKenzie and Stillman, 2011; Clemens and Tiongson, 2017; Mobarak, Sharif and Shresta, 2023). The research that we conducted was motivated by a simple question: to what extent international migration fits with this image? And, in case it does not, as migrants change their marital status after having moved abroad, which are the implications for our understanding of the determinants of migration and of its effects on the left behind? |
| Abstract: | Lorsqu'une personne migre, elle peut toujours s'appuyer sur sa famille, qui représente une base très solide. C'est ce qu'affirment la majorité des recherches menées sur la migration internationale. La famille intervient dans la décision de migrer et participe au financement de cet important investissement (voir, par exemple, Stark et Bloom, 1985). Cela implique un accord implicite entre le migrant et les membres non migrants de sa famille concernant le partage des gains de revenu liés à la migration, via les transferts envoyés par le migrant (voir, par exemple, Poirine, 1997). Sur la base de ces modèles, la littérature empirique a analysé les effets de la migration et de ces transferts destinés aux membres de la famille restés dans le pays d'origine (e.g., Gibson, McKenzie et Stillman, 2011; Clemens et Tiongson, 2017; Mobarak, Sharif et Shresta, 2023). Notre recherche est motivée par une simple question : à quel point la migration internationale rentre précisément dans ce cadre ? Et, si cela n'est pas le cas, vu que les migrants changent de statut marital après avoir quitté leur pays, quelles sont les implications pour notre compréhension des causes et des effets de la migration ? |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Status quo bias, Counterfactual reasoning, Family formation, Migration, Biais de statu quo, Transferts de fonds, Raisonnement contrefactuel, Formation de la famille |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05385527 |
| By: | Mota, Jose |
| Abstract: | A large body of research has established the importance of international remittances as an insurance mechanism against income shocks in developing countries. However, households have additional self-insurance mechanisms, including precautionary savings, labor supply adjustments, and multiple earners. This paper develops a model with heterogeneous two-member households and endogenous international remittances to study the relationship between remittances from overseas workers and other self-insurance mechanisms. I calibrate the model with data from the Dominican Republic, and then use the model to decompose the relative importance of the self-insurance mechanisms used by non-migrant households and households with overseas workers. I find that the response of household behavior (remittances, labor supply, and savings) differs greatly depending on whether the household is a migrant or non-migrant household and on whether the shock hits the overseas worker (usually male) or the left-behind family member (usually female). Allowing for correlated wage shocks within non-migrant households further highlights the insurance benefits of migration by reducing joint exposure to local shocks and altering the composition of self-insurance mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Remittances; self-insurance; intra-household risk sharing; labor supply |
| JEL: | D13 D14 F24 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126670 |
| By: | Edwards, Ryan Barclay (Australian National University); Stambolie, Estelle |
| Abstract: | Using high-frequency financial diaries data from Fijians working in Australia as part of the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme, we examine whether migrants send more money home when they earn more. Regardless of whether PALM migrants earn more or less in Australia over their stay, they tend to send the same regular amounts home to support their families. Exploiting variation within individual migrants over time, we estimate an income elasticity of remittances of around 0.3. These contemporaneous responses are driven by negative shocks, suggesting an immediate pass-through to families back home, where remittances are the main source of income. |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5nhq6_v1 |
| By: | Pardo, Pilar Andrea Quiroz; Janssen, David; Roosen, Inez; Hoving, Ciska (Maastricht University, Care and Public Health Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Research suggests that transnational networks could have a beneficial effect on the health of the sender country by disseminating health innovations. This study investigates whether having a household member who has emigrated is related to teenage pregnancy in Colombia, a country with high teenage pregnancy rates (66.7 per 1000 women) and high levels of migration. To investigate the link between emigration and teenage pregnancy, this study performed a secondary analysis of the 2015 Colombia Demographic and Health Survey, a large and in-depth survey using the 2005 Colombian census as its sampling frame. A logistic regression was performed across all women aged 13 to 19 (n = 8526), modeling the relationship between having an emigrant household member and teenage pregnancy while controlling for household wealth and school attendance. The study found no such relationship. Instead, school attendance and wealth were both significantly associated with teenage pregnancy. The lack of a significant finding may stem from the fact that Colombian migration generally does not tend to flow to nations with higher quality healthcare and health information, or from the fact that those most at risk of teenage pregnancy were also the least likely to be exposed to migrants living in countries with access to better healthcare. Based on our findings, concentrating efforts on people living in impoverished communities is therefore recommended, as they face greater risks of and negative consequences from teenage pregnancy. |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w37yk_v1 |
| By: | Lemos, Sara (University of Leicester); Popov, Sergey V. (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | No empirical evidence has ever been reported that the large inflow of accession immigrants – following the 2004 expansion of the European Union – led to a fall in wages or employment, or a rise in unemployment in the UK between 2004 and 2006. Given its unprecedented scale and pace – one of the largest UK immigration inflows on record – the lack of evidence of adverse effects is striking. This immigration shock was unexpectedly larger and faster – as well as more concentrated into areas and occupations – than anticipated, seemingly more akin to an exogenous supply shock than most immigration shocks. This means that there was less scope for anticipated labour market adjustments in the lead up to May 2004: adjustments which might have lessened any adverse impact of the shock. The initial heated debate about the striking lack of evidence of adverse effects gradually turned into a tenuous consensus that this large and fast shock was absorbed without substantial adverse effects on wages or employment. Exploiting rich but underused data from the Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB) we estimate the effect of this immigration shock on wages, employment and unemployment of natives and previously existing immigrants in the UK. We confirm once again the finding of little evidence that the inflow of accession immigrants led to a fall in wages, a fall in employment, or a rise in unemployment of natives in the UK between 2004 and 2006. However, we uncover, for the first time, novel evidence of adverse employment and unemployment effects for low paid existing immigrants as a result of the accession immigration inflow. This is more severe for low paid immigrants and young low paid immigrants as well as for long term unemployed immigrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration; employment; wages; Central and Eastern Europe; UK |
| JEL: | J22 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2025/24 |
| By: | Alyna Paul |
| Abstract: | Background: The co-occurrence of many refugees arriving in Germany in 2015 and 2016 and the increase in anti-refugee attitudes among Germans suggests an association. High levels of public concern about immigration, now again in 2025, emphasize the importance of identifying predictors of attitudes towards refugees in general. Aims: The objective is to test whether high regional shares of refugees (share variable) and large positive regional changes in the shares of refugees (change variable) tend to increase individuals’ negative attitudes towards refugees. Data: The analysis was based on representative individual-level and county-level panel data for 2016, 2018, and 2020 from Germany, provided by the SOEP and the INKAR. The target population consisted of adults living in Germany who had not changed counties and had not been refugees in 2015 or after. After listwise deletion, 30, 266 individuals with 61, 444 observations residing in 398 counties remained for analysis (MAge = 53.07 years, %Men = 49). Design: Attitudes towards refugees were estimated through an average score of five items concerning the expected cultural and economic risks or opportunities of refugee immigration. Apart from regional-level variables, several individual characteristics were included as predictors in the longitudinal and cross-sectional linear multi-level regression models.Findings: The longitudinal analysis indicated no relationship between regional share or change in the share of refugees and the individual attitudes towards refugees. Although the coefficients pointed in the expected direction, they were very small and only marginally statistically significant, with β11 = 0.023, 95%CI [0.001, 0.044] for the share variable and β12 = 0.011, 95%CI [−0.002, 0.024] for the change variable. The cross-sectional analysis showed that solely in 2020, the share variable was statistically significant, albeit marginally and unexpectedly negative. Thus, the small longitudinal effect was not even stable over time. Instead, education and whether someone had been socialized in East or West Germany were the strongest predictors of attitudes towards refugees. Conclusions: Negative attitudes towards refugees are independent of the actual regional share and change in the share of refugees. This indicates that restricting immigration would not reduce public concern or foster integration. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1231 |
| By: | Claude Diebolt; Joel Huesler |
| Abstract: | In 1685, Louis XIV’s revocation of the Edict of Nantes expelled some 200, 000 Huguenots—one of the most skill-selective forced migrations in early modern Europe. While their contributions to England, Prussia and the Dutch Republic are well documented, the economic losses borne by the French regions they left behind have remained surprisingly unmeasured, despite the Huguenots’ disproportionate role in textiles, luxury crafts, finance and international trade. This paper provides the first economy-wide, micro-quantitative estimate of the long-run cost of this exodus for France. Using a newly assembled parish-level panel of Protestant baptism registers (1570–1700) linked to the industrial censuses of 1839 and 1860, we trace how a seventeenth-century demographic shock shaped regional development nearly two centuries later. We uncover three core results. (1) A one-standard-deviation decline in Huguenot baptisms (≈–20%) led to enduring losses:–5.8% industrial employment, –4.4% establishments and–5.1% wages in 1839, with output deficits still visible in 1860. (2) These effects persisted remarkably: by 1860, industrial production remained 2.8% lower—about 480, 000 francs per arrondissement. (3) The impact hinged on institutional and intellectual complementarities: regions distant from universities, printing presses, commercial hubs or Parliaments suffered the deepest scars. Together, these findings show how the removal of a highly skilled minority durably reshaped France’s economic geography, leaving an imprint that lasted for nearly two centuries. |
| Keywords: | Huguenots; Forced migration; Human capital; Economic persistence; Industrialization; Regional development; Historical shocks; Microhistorical data; Skill-selective migration. |
| JEL: | N33 N34 J61 O15 R11 F22 C23 N93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-48 |
| By: | Akira SASAHARA |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of empirical studies that examine the impact of immigration inflows on host-country economies. We first discuss existing studies analyzing how immigration affects labor-market outcomes such as wages, employment, and unemployment rates. Although an increase in labor supply due to immigration may, in the short run, put downward pressure on wages and raise unemployment, this article documents that existing empirical results do not necessarily support the theoretical result. We also review studies that highlight the mechanism of “task specialization, †in which native workers adjust their occupations in response to immigration by moving into tasks where they hold a comparative advantage, thereby limiting wage declines. In addition, we discuss existing studies investigating the effects of immigration on internal migration and human capital accumulation. The discussion covers both research focusing on Japan and other countries. Finally, we summarize the shift–share instrumental variable approach and outline its methodological challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25019 |