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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Rosella Nicolini (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Juan A. Piedra-Peña (Universidad de Oviedo, Spain); José Luis Roig Sabaté (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Riccardo Turati (Dep Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The scope of our research is to conduct an empirical investigation into the degree of ethnic cohesion in a multiethnic city such as Barcelona (Spain). Our aim is to assess how immigrant and native groups are distributed across the city’s neighborhoods and understand their locational patterns in order to identify potential polarization trends that could undermine socioeconomic cohesion among citizens. Unlike much of the existing literature, we adopt a research strategy based on spatial analysis. Our findings indicate that, between 2008 and 2020, Barcelona experienced a decrease in polarization and an increase in diversity—understood as the co-location of different communities—at the neighborhood level. Income emerges as a relevant determinant: it is associated with lower diversity and positively correlated with polarization. We identify that high-income neighborhoods are predominantly inhabited by natives and Europeans, while other communities are relegated to peripheral areas, which in turn become more diverse. However, this distribution pattern is reinforced by the linguistic and religious distance. A deeper interpretation of our results suggests that initiatives aimed at fostering human capital development and education could serve as effective tools to promote a more balanced spatial distribution of communities that could enhance urban social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | . |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2519 |
| By: | Elkhateeb, Yasmine (J-PAL MENA); Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Valette, Jérôme (CEPII, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity, social identity, immigration |
| JEL: | F22 D03 D72 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18261 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti; Ropponen, Olli |
| Abstract: | Abstract High-skilled immigration has consistently demonstrated positive effects on firm performance, innovation, and productivity, while generally avoiding adverse impacts on native wages or employment. Consequently, many countries offer preferential tax schemes for highly skilled migrants. Recent research from the Netherlands provides compelling evidence on the impact of such schemes. In 2012, the Dutch system underwent reform, replacing a subjective “scarce skills” eligibility criterion with a transparent and relatively low income threshold. This reform significantly increased migration among mid-level earners, illustrating that migration reacts strongly to increased net-of-tax income and underscoring the importance of clear, predictable rules. We suggest that Finland should extend tax relief for highly skilled immigrants beyond the highest earners and consider implementing graduated rates. |
| Keywords: | Skilled Immigration, Preferential Tax Scheme, Migration Elasticity, Key Employee Act, Finland, Netherlands |
| JEL: | J61 J31 D24 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:168 |
| By: | Kafle, Kashi; Wang, Yuanhang; Kiiza, Barnabas |
| Abstract: | In the absence of reliable and timely weather information, unprecedented weather shocks can influence farmers’ decision-making. We take the case of Uganda to investigate the relationship between weather shocks and temporary migration among smallholders. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey – Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Survey in Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) –, we examine if household-level weather shocks affect temporary migration. Using panel data estimators, we show that weather shocks reduce temporary migration among poor households, and the relationship is more pronounced for smallholders. We also find that the relationship differs by the type of migration. Weather shocks reduce temporary labor migration and migration for educational purposes, but migration for other reasons is not affected. These results are confirmed by focused group interviews with 24 rural farmers from all four regions of Uganda. We identify reduced agricultural productivity and low farm revenue as potential channels for the negative relationship between weather shocks and migration. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344270 |
| By: | Marbach, Moritz |
| Abstract: | Internal migration, a common phenomenon in all countries, reshapes political geography by altering both the composition and preferences of local electorates, with significant implications for electoral outcomes. Despite increasing research on the political consequences of internal migration, there is little guidance on how to disentangle compositional from exposure effects when analyzing the causal effect of internal migration on district-level outcomes. In this paper, we define compositional effects within a standard potential outcome model, and we demonstrate that compositional and exposure effects jointly constitute the total causal effect of internal migration. We discuss potential avenues to identify, bound, and estimate compositional effects, leveraging additional data and assumptions. To illustrate the importance of disentangling compositional from exposure effects, we analyze the exodus of East Germans to West Germany shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, demonstrating how out-migration to West Germany shaped electoral outcomes in East Germany through compositional effects. |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pq3bd_v1 |
| By: | Hanno Foerster (Boston College); Robert Ulbricht (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial directed search model to study job search and migration among dual-earner households. Using the model, we decompose observed gender gaps into exogenous gender differences, which are amplified by a “colocation friction” that is unique to dual-earner households. Estimated for the U.S. labor market, the colocation friction reduces women’s long-term migration gains by 19% and discourages mobility, particularly among “power couples”. The rise of remote work mitigates this friction, cutting average earnings losses by up to 50%. |
| Keywords: | dual-earner job search, gender inequality, migration, remote work, search friction |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1103 |
| By: | Neville, Ruth (UCL); Rowe, Francisco (University of Liverpool); Zagheni, Emilio |
| Abstract: | International student mobility (ISM) is a critical component of the global migration system, with profound implications for higher education financing, soft power, and geopolitical relations. Within this, the UK is the second leading destination for international students, but its position is under mounting pressure. Using administrative data from the UK’s Colleges and Admissions Service (UCAS) covering applications from 86 countries between 2010-2024, we apply machine learning forecasting to project undergraduate applications through to 2030. Our approach produces disaggregated, country-level forecasts based on the timeliest data. Our findings reveal evidence of the emergence of an increasingly concentrated system: China, India, and the EU, despite the EU’s dramatic post-Brexit decline, will comprise of over 60% of applications by 2030. This trend reflects a concentration paradox, where growth in successful applications from these blocs is expected to slow but reliance intensifies, increasing system vulnerability to policy volatility and geopolitical shocks. These results underscore vulnerabilities in the UK higher education system and hold important insight for migration governance systems and institutions. |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zkpm4_v1 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C. |
| Abstract: | Early humans undertook multiple waves of migration out of Africa and back to the continent. We explore prehistoric human migration in a two-region Malthusian growth model. Whether migration occurs depends on the migration cost, relative population size, relative land supply and relative hunting-gathering productivity between regions. Suppose one region is initially uninhabited. Then, a lower migration cost leads to migration and a larger human population. Back migration occurs when hunting-gathering productivity and supply of natural resources in the foreign region decrease relative to the home region, which provides an economic rationale for the multi-directional "shuttle dispersal model" of prehistoric human migration out of and back to Africa. |
| Keywords: | Prehistoric human migration; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | O15 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126606 |
| By: | Tim Hughes; Sarah Crichton (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the fiscal implications of transnationalism among New Zealand-born citizens. For every calendar year between 1999 and 2024, the IDI allows us to identify how many days NZ-born citizens spend in New Zealand or elsewhere. As the lifecourse progresses, many New Zealanders choose to live elsewhere. Often this is temporary, with about 40% of NZ-born emigrants returning to live in New Zealand again, usually within a few years. But many others leave permanently. By the age of 30, 25-30% of each birth cohort is living elsewhere. Emigration of the New Zealand born represents only about a third of total emigration – the rest is emigration of the foreign-born, including foreign-born citizens of New Zealand. Emigration of the foreign-born will be considered in a future paper. Emigration of the NZ-born is most common in young adulthood - about half of those emigrating each year are in their twenties or thirties. But emigration in one’s twenties is also the most likely to be temporary. Emigration in childhood and later adulthood is more likely to be permanent. Emigration and return migration are also strongly associated with both ethnicity and qualification level, but not with gender. In general, the most highly qualified are most likely to emigrate, but also the most likely to return. This difference in emigration between people with lower and higher qualifications exists within all ethnic groups, but the difference is greatest for NZ Europeans, and smallest for Pacific peoples. Over time, emigration of successive birth cohorts has led to a substantial diaspora. We estimate that the NZ-born diaspora has grown over time to about 915, 000 people, about two-thirds of whom are living in Australia. The diaspora is older than the New Zealand population, and growing older over time. NZ-born Asian and Pacific people have higher rates of diasporic membership than Māori and NZ Europeans. From a fiscal perspective, the diaspora represents both a contingent asset and a contingent liability. Return migration from the diaspora of those with overseas experience is an important source of fiscal revenue. For example in 2023, among 40-44 year-old NZ-born residents, those who had taken at least a short OE made up 35% of the residents, but paid 42% of the personal tax among this group. These figures illustrate how future Government revenues are dependent at least in part on ensuring New Zealanders who choose to pursue an OE find returning home an attractive proposition. diaspora also represents a contingent liability, to the extent that New Zealanders with rights of return also have rights to public services such as health and aged care should they choose to return. Return is uncommon later in life, suggesting that retirement back to New Zealand is rare among those who have settled elsewhere. However, rates of return increased during COVID among older and especially younger New Zealanders. This suggests that the fiscal risks of certain adverse events, especially global events, may be exacerbated if those events result in higher rates of return from the diaspora. |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an25/10 |
| By: | Tim Hughes (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | New Zealand is characterised by very high levels of inward and outward migration, both temporary and permanent. These population movements have important fiscal consequences, as illustrated in the Treasury’s recent long-term fiscal statement. Net migration affects fiscal aggregates, and transnational population movements affect how the costs and benefits of public finances are distributed between people. This paper describes the development of a population dataset that captures these movements in and out of the country. The ambition is to attach fiscal information to the population dataset in future, to help understand longitudinal patterns of expenditure and revenue among different cohorts of people such as temporary or permanent migrants, New Zealand emigrants and returning New Zealanders. The New Zealand population is typically estimated as a ‘stock’ concept as at a point in time. But fiscal analysis usually focuses on flows of revenue and expenditure over periods of time such as a year. This paper thus develops a ‘flow’ concept of population. The focus is on the number of days someone is in the country in a year. Even if someone is not part of the ‘usual’ population, for the time they are present in the country they will have an impact on fiscal aggregates. On the revenue side, they will contribute GST, at least, and perhaps income tax as well. And on the expenditure side, more people means more pressure on infrastructure and social services. I describe the population dataset as capturing a ‘transnational’ population, in contrast to the typical ‘resident’ population. This term transnationalism refers to both long-term immigration into and emigration out of New Zealand. It also refers to onward migration of immigrants to other countries, return migration of emigrants (after an OE, say) and diverse patterns of temporary work, residence or study. This note reflects the analytical structure used to build up the population dataset. I start by defining physical presence in the country. In the second stage I develop a definition of residence, then add information about the legal basis for presence in the country. In the final stage I use this information to develop and apply a set of transnational states. The final section illustrates the analytical possibilities of the data by showing transitions between different transnational states for different cohorts of students arriving in New Zealand, showing that many go on to become temporary workers and then residents. |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an25/09 |